Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

02 November - Week 1565

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1565 was a major success at the betting windows, although my stable tanked. Weeks 1558 found me occupied with some of that real life stuff, and for week 1565, I'm baaaaaaccckkkk... like a bad Halloween sequel. No horses running this week, though.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1565.0603

Allowance A mile and five eighths Sloppy Dirt $15,300
All horses, 3 years old and up, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $950,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 11149 IMAGE WELL alphabetso X Jones 5/1
2 35740 ICE WALACKI aspromised V Jennings 10/1
3 15325 KID KOOL shadwell T Thomas 9/1
4 55035 FUSSY MOORS melchett L Goad 13/1
5 37257 MANILLA LASS broohar2 P Gangi 5/1
6 3522 ROBIN HUNTER cerveja A Weldon 96/1
7 24405 CLUB DISPLAYING philcan2 P Renee 6/1
8 21388 MR. BOLD dbutwell N Wilks 9/1
9 18652 ROMAN PEGAPHAR psychloan S Proudfoot 19/1
10 13280 SUPERCHARGER(JPN) 2ofus B Roach 17/1
11 19819 ONLY CAD bb J Huey 14/1
12 21717 OJAI KING ojai D Rodgers 10/1
13 55163 JUNIOR TRUCK gessle P Reich 9/1
14 15130 SWORD OF INDY G dgdg V Perkins 17/1

I find myself back in the saddle in Arkansas for a nice little 13f , sloppy dirt race. The horses with the best odds are going off at 5/1, there's a nice spread, and some value to be taken. Let's see what we can do.

5/1, pp1, Image Well, has a lousy jockey and 70 days rest. In his last appearance, 10 weeks ago, he ran a 12f race, fell behind at the second call, and somehow limped home in last. He loses speed on turf instead of dirt, and he hasn't been in the slop anytime recently. Note that his speed also fades with longer races. Still, if he was healthy, you could expect a mid 80's performance if he is healthy, had a fast track. As this guy gets favorites odds, I have to ask whether this is the best we've got in this race.

The next 5/1 is the pp5, Manilla Lass, with a slightly better but still lousy jockey, and only 14 days rest. This guy seems to prefer and prosper under a 21 day rest regimen, but after falling 20 speed points, stable owner Broohar2 rested him for 14 and he came back. This race sees a similar 14 day rest period, and that looks like a big negative for touting him. Add to that that he's fallen way behind in longer routes, throw in the slop and the fact that he does better from slightyly behind, and I'd still rather put my money on the 1.

6/1, pp7, Club Displaying, has a barely adequate jockey, and 14 days rest. If stable owner Philcan2 rides him slightly off the lead, he can win this one. The big unknown is the slop, but he's used to 12f races, and looks reliable. Even the 14 day rest instead of 21 doesn't dusggest he's going to suffer very much. Now, I'm looking at a 7-1-5 finish.

It isn't that simple, though. The 9/1, pp3, Kid Kool, has a barely adequate jockey and 14 days rest. He does better with 21 days rest, and I don't see 14 days being helpful to him. On the other hand, he has experience with longer races, did nicely in a 16f good dirt race, and while he needs more rest, he's clearly capable if he jumps out to a lead. Now, I'm liking a 7-3 combo.

9/1, pp8, Mr. Bold, has a lousy jockey, and 21 days rest. This guy looks good except for a couple of little problems, like his propensity to drop 20 speed points between fast and good tracks, moving up in class and therefore finding the going harder, and his need to jump out ahead. If it were fast dirt, I'd give this guy a better chance, but the off track suggest to me that he's going to struggle, fall behind by the first call, and never make up the difference.

9/1, pp13, Junior Truck, has a lousy jockey and 7 days rest. Those don't help, but this guy has run 16f on a sloppy track and won from behind, so this guy has to be in contention. Adding him to the mix makes me think that the 7, 3, or this 13 horse will be in play.

10/1, pp2, Ice Walacki, has a good jockey, and 35 days rest, but when compared to the 13, doesn't have enough juice to do it. He's reliable, but don't expect him to far supercede his best speeds to date.

In looking at the 13, 7, and 3 more closely, I keep coming back to the 13. The lack of rest has me worried, but I'm going to go with the 13 to win, the 7 to place, and the 3 to show. Should be some money to be made here.

WPS 13 $5000 total $15,000

PS 7 $5000 total $10,000

S 13 $10000 total $10,000

S 7 $8000 total $8,000

Ex Bx 13-7-3 $2000 total $12,000

Tri Bx 13-7-3 $2000 total $12,000

Total Wagered : $67,000

AFTERMATH:

Trying to get this page updated on the fly -- the 13 came in, followed by the 4 and the 3, and then the 7. So close..... but the good odds made for a nice little payday.

*********************************

TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1565 :     $67,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1565 :    $129,000

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $62,000

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$287,904.50

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1558

Results of Week 1565 - Bet $67,000, Received back, $129,000 - a profit of $62,000

Results of Week 1551 - Bet $66,000, Received back $166,300, --a profit of $100,300

Results of Week 1544 - Bet $48,000, Received back, $22,775 - a loss of $25,225

Results of Week 1537 - Bet $40,000, Received back, $41,400 - a profit of $1,400

Results of Week 1530 - Bet $8,500, Received back, $6,900 - a loss of $1,600

Results of Week 1523 - Bet $33,000, Received back, $78,300 - a profit of $45,300

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675