Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis for
29 June 2002 - Week 1439
Overview
I'll try to provide analysis as to why I think my picks will do well, and give you suggestions. Expect to see my thoughts for the coming week posted by sometime Thursday night to Friday night or earlier.
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. After my worst losing week yet, I'm still up by $2,800 or so.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
Race ID:1439.1111
Race # 11 Starter Allowance ($4,000)
A mile and one sixteenth Fast Dirt $7,600
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Overwhelming 8/5 favorite, pp3, Her Ton, looks to be in one of her phases where she needs a little rest and will in return boot her speed numbers by 10 or so. But, she's running this week, and can be expected to turn in a 85-90 show this week. Watch for her to try to jump out at the beginning and race hard. This horse has a definite ability in shorter races, so this one is perfect for her. The only question is whether any of the other, higher odds horses, have a chance.
Gambler Gambling, pp 8, goes off at 5/1. Her speed is somewhat erratic, but should be in the high 70's to low 80's this go round. While nice, and while she has had a good career recently, I don't see this horse as being able to take the favorite.
And then, there's Project Amy, pp 4, who also goes off at 5/1. This horse is a different proposition, though. She's getting enough rest, her speed is in the low 90's, and she too likes to lead. Even so, she can close if need be. A strong horse, with good speed. Keep this one in mind for making some bets on.
6/1, pp10 Tiz An Animal is consistently turning in speeds of 76-80, and her training cycle seems to be working for her. With a about the same speed or a little less (this isn't the truf track she favors), this horse won't be enough to prevail.
8/1 pp7, Valiant Top, stepped up in class for her last two claimers and no goes for a starter allowance race. Rest looks about right, has a great jockey, but don't expect her much past the high 80's. Expect Grunhard to position her for a run down the strecth, but don't expect her to make it in time.
9/1, pp9 Brown Bro resembles the 10. She's a good horse that's coming along nicely, but its strength is in the longer races where it can turn in this kind of speed. Still, with Redden as her jockey, don't be surprised if she's in this at the end. Expect this is a training effort and look for a speed of 80 or so.
Everything else on 4 legs just doesn't have the speed or ability to get the job done today.
It looks like it will be a competition between the favored 3 and 4. With both of them going at it early on, I'm not expecting the closers to be able to close the gap, so my pick has to stay with the 3 and 4. While the odds are lousy (8/5) on the 3, the odds on the 4 make for a good insurance bet.
PS 3 500 total $1000
Ex bx 3-4 200 total $400
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse Win Place Show
3 HER TON
$5.20 $3.20
$2.30
7 VALIANT TOP
$9.70 $7.00
9 BROWN BRO
$6.00
Exacta: $50.20
Trifecta: $284.20
Time of race: 1:44 2/5
The 3 comes through as expected, and yields $800 on the place bet, and $575 on the show bet. Since the exacta didn't come through, this race results in a bet of $1400, winnings of $1,375, and a net loss of $25. The 7 and 9 were coaxed home by two of the tracks best jockeys, which once again underscores the importance of having good riders for your horses.
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Race ID:1439.0206
Race # 6 Allowance Six furlongs
Fast Dirt $52,300
All horses, 3 years old and up, Non-Winners of FOUR except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter
With none of the field going off at lower than 6/1 odds, this
race presents a great opportunity for straight as well as more exotic bets. With
the quality of horses in this Florida shindig, expect the winner to clock in
over 100. At least in this race, Florida will be having fast dirt.
The first of three 6/1 horses, pp 7, Mr. Lever, turns in speed ratings in the 90's whenever he goes over 7.5 furlongs, but he does best in the 6- 7.5 range. The 7 sports one of the best jockeys for this field, and clearly has the ability, if he isn't too tired from his recent races 2 and 4 weeks ago. Racing this horse on only two weeks rest is of concern to me, but that's the only detraction I'm seeing. This horse should be in the top 4 unless something dramatic occurs. Watch for him to take an early lead.
Next is the 6/1, pp8, Junior Bailey, which used to race in the low 100's, but which has recently been clocking in around the 90's. With a so so jockey, and a penchant for falling away at the end of the race, I'm not giving this horse the same expectation of success. Obviously stable owner stephayn00 saw some reason to cart him down from North Dakota, but I'm not going to hold my breath.
Last of the 6/1 horses is the pp 14, Murray the Cop. Excellent jockey on board, and he's been turning in a speed rating of 101 for his last three races, including a sloppy track in Joisey. While he's been raceing at a lower class, this horse looks well managed, and makes it into my picks for this week.
The first of two 7/1 horses is pp1, Cavern Captor. An impressive horse, but t has a tendency to fade at 6 furlongs. It seems this horse either clocks in at the low 90's or hits 100 or above on a good day. With another meager jockey, don't expect him to be in the top three.
The other 7/1 horse is pp11, Stormy Son from Hambeau's stable. This horse made my final four for this race. Although he rarely breaks 100, I think he might be poised to do well on 2 weeks rest at a shorter distance, and apparently Hambeau is taking that risk as well. While this horse may tank, as he did after his last "over 100" race, I'm expecting a rating right at the century mark. If the jockey was better, it would help this horse jump out in front, which is what he will need to win today.
At 8/1 is the pp 13, Roy Prospector, which impressed 2 weeks ago with a 105 speed in the Northern No Trump Stakes in North Carolina. While the 4.5 furlong races haven't favored him recently, he's turned in a nice performance at 6 furlongs. If it wasn't for a jockey with a 3% win rate, and if the field were smaller, I'd give him more of a chance. Expect him to clock in just shy of 100, which will be close, but not enough.
Next is the 9/1, pp 10, Pumpkin Capote, who races with a good jockey and good speed at this distance. He's getting a nice layoff of 5 weeks, which is surprisingly is just a bit less than he has recently had in the past few months. While a plus 100 race isn't out of the question, Florida is a different track than Spain, where this horse had a recent success. This horse is another that likes to get the jump, and probably will with her jockey. Still, she fades at 6 furlongs, and I don't expect her to lead the pack.
The 10/1,pp 6, Mouth Isaac, has an adequate jockey, but seesaws in speed ratings -- his last appearance on turf doesn't explain the other abnormalities. While shortening his recent 3 week rest to 2 weeks for this race might help, I'm not counting on it. Expect this horse to jump out for the lead, and possibly have it for the first half of the race before the others go to work.
Next is the 12/1, pp 5, Capote Waivering, which has a competent jockey onboard. This horse can be a lightning closer coming down the stretch, and has been getting stronger and faster each week. Stable owner Socalslew has managed this horse very nicely since week 1278. The same jockey rode her two races ago, in week 1376, and came within 2 lengths of winning, after holding back at 11 for 2 calls. The only question here is whether this horse will be able to break through the pack. I expect two packs of horses to separate this horse and the leader at the halfway mark. I like this horse a lot, have a quiet voice nagging me to bet him, but I don't know. Figure this horse for right at the century mark as well.
All of the remaining horses just don't quite have enough oomph on paper to make them a worthwhile mark, especially when there are a number of excellent horses which have consistently done better, a feeling my horses know all too well.
While several horses, such as the 7, 9, and 10 will vie for the early lead, as the pack separates into several clusters. By the halfway mark, watch for the 5 and 11 will be moving forward, toward the 1, 8, and 10. Passing by them for the run down the stretch, look for the 14, 5, 7, and 11 to be in a run for the wire. The 14 still impresses me the most, but the 5 looks pretty juicy, too.
WPS 14 $200 total $600
PS 5 $200 total $400
S 7 $300 total $300
Ex Box 5-14 $200 total$400
Ex Box 5-7-11-14 $10 total $120
Tri Box 5-14-7 $50 total$300
Total Wagered:$2120
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
11 STORMY SON
$16.10 $7.80 $6.90
6 MOUTH ISAAC
$11.20 $7.60
14 MURRAY THE COP
$6.60
Exacta: $219.50
Trifecta: $1505.50
Time of race: 1:10
I liked the 5, 7, 11, and 14, and put my faith in the 14. While my show bet paid back $600, its way short from the kind of payday I was expecting. Once again, I was reminded not to bet against any horse from Hambeau's stables, and this race gave me a chance to watch Socalslew, Barn25dog and 4stardave in action. Each of these stables, along with thebandit also getting a nod, did a nice job with this race, much to my chagrin. While this was a good race to bet, the 6 was all that was needed to scotch my plan for equine domination. Well, at least my horses did better this week. After wagering $2,120, and only recovering $600, this race puts me down $1,520 or so.
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Total Wagered This Week: $3,640
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1439 : $3,640
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1411: $2,035
PROFIT/LOSS -$1,605.00
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE: +$2,847.50
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
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