Race # 3    Claiming ($20,000)    Six and one half furlongs    Yielding Turf    $15,800

All horses, 3 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO Lifetime

 Welcome to sunny and soupy Florida, where the turf is as yielding as a coed on spring break. 

This is precisely the kind of race that piques my attention as a bettor. One horse is overwhelmingly favored, several other horses are in contention, and everything else is glue factory material. Why does a setup such as that interest me you might ask? When I see an overwhelming favorite, I look for possible chinks in its armor. It isn't uncommon to find one or two horses which could well be in contention if the favorite has an off day, and usually the odds for such horses are at least 3/1. Since we're betting with the purpose of making money, this could be a good chance to win, especially if the favorite isn't all he's cracked up to be. Well, lets look at the favorite, then, shall we?.

The overwhelming favorite is the pp. 3, Junior Tempest, which is going off at 4/5. By all rights, this should be a dynamic horse that even your grandmother should be able to ride to finish line. Well, let's take a look, shall we?

This is a $20,000 claimer, and in the past, the 3 horse has come in 4th or 5th at this class. His speed averages mid to high 70's, but he did hit an 83 a little while back. Of course, this is a turf race, and this horse seems to drop in speed a bit on turf. The horse seems to do better as a closer ( he seems to drop away at the end if he's been at the front of the pack from the gate), and he has an mediocre jockey who is having a better than average year, but still nothing to write home about. The stable owner, Pepperbarn, only has three horses right now, and the this horse, the 3, is the crown jewel of Pepperbarn's stable, which after 50 races now consists of 3 horses. I'm thinking that Pepperbarn made this entry with a strong intention of winning and pulling down some cash. Knowing that this horse is the heavy favorite, let's see what the competition has.

I'm immediately drawn to the 3/1 pp1 Hoss Boomer. This horse has steadily been improving in every race its had.  This horse should stay at about the same speed rating (81) or just drop a bit on 2 weeks. notice. This horse has won on turf last time out, and seems to favor the shorter races, with about 6- 6.5 furlongs being optimal. The jockey, with winning percentage of only 9% this year, is definitely having an off year, but he's also experienced and has made a lot of money in his 7 year career. If he doesn't tire out, and if the jockey gets the good break, this horse can be in the top three if not win it outright.

The 6/1 pp4, Omaha Heather, doesn't have the speed to make it here, and doesn't have the jockey for the ride. While experienced on turf, this horse is also accustomed to chasing the tail end of the rest of the pack.

8/1 pp.5, Commander Car, has benefited under new stable owner sm0key, and seems to like the 14 day routine. As to whether this horse can sustain a high 70's rating this week, only the race will tell. I also note that this horse hasn't finished worse than 4th in recent memory. This horse may not win, but it doesn't seem to like dawdling. I like this horse, but not as a winner.

13/1 pp 7, Commander Watson, hasn't done better than a 40 something speed rating, and with an abyssmal jockey, don't expect that to change.

Which brings us to the 15/1, pp6, Boss Devon. The best jockey at the track has this ride, and the horse has turf experience, can win at this distance in a slightly better class race. What has everyone concerned is whether this horse's last outing was a fluke, or whether its the real thing. Jockey Gardiner will get the best he can out of him, so don't count him out. If Gardiner gets a good ride, look for him to be in contention, and if not, I see him coming in 3rd or 4th.

The way I see it, look for the 5, 2, and 1 to jump out, with the 2 fading by the first turn. If the 6 is going to be in contention at the finish line, he'll be in the front pack off the gate, too. Don't be surprised to see the favored 3 in the frontrunners, either, but if so, expect him to fade in the stretch.

If the jockey for the 1 doesn't screw up, it will be the 1 and 3 dueling at the finish line, with the edge to the 1. Look for the 5 or 6 coming in 3rd.

S                     1                 $200                 total $100

Tri Box  1-3-5-6                 $10                 total $240

Total wager: $340

Post         Horse                                     Win         Place         Show
5         COMMANDER CAR                 $18.20     $9.60         $5.20
1         HOSS BOOMER                                         $5.40         $2.80
3         JUNIOR TEMPEST                                                        $2.10

Exacta: $100.00
Trifecta: $128.70

Time of race: 1:17 4/5

    Yahoo! This one went off mostly as expected. I didn't expect the 3 to finish first, and the only surprise was how well the 5 did. Nevertheless, I made a profit on this one, hitting the show bet for $280 and the exacta for $643.50, for a total return on this  race of $923.50.  Once again, the first race I handicap turns out well for me. 

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Race # 6    Allowance    Six and one half furlongs    Fast Dirt    $6,300

All horses, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of ONE except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter

From Florida, we head to West Virginia. While not a high rolling track, it draws some good races, and this looks to be one of them. 

7/2 favorite Shelley's road has the 5 post position, and appears to be gaining in speed with each successive performance, lately. Although a born closer, the 5 hasn't been doing as well lately in higher class races, and moves down in class for a payday. Recent performance suggests that this horse does best with a 14 day cycle, and that's what he has for today. Or so the theory goes.

But take a look at the jockey, who only has an 8% winning rate and who wins less than 10% of the time lately. With 14 horses in the field, and with this horse driving the first 3/4 of the race from behind, I'd want a better jockey to make the run in the final stretch. This horse has power and speed, but without the guidance from a good jockey, I don't see this horse having the edge.

Next, we have the 5/1 pp2, Wingo's Rat, is coming down in class from the last race, and has an average jockey onboard. Stable owner Devry is giving the horse 21 days rest, but this horse has been quirky in how rest has correlated to results. While this horse can hit a speed rating in the high 90's when primed, don't expect much higher than a 93 rating, which will be close, but won't get Devry a cigar this time.

6/1 pp8, February Rock, was claimed by stable owner Victory two races back, and seems to be improving in speed with the change. Although this race is a step up in calss compared to most of what this horse has been doing, a solid jockey is on board, and has a better chance to guide this horse in the stretch than the two favorites. The only concern here is the 14 day rest cycle. Look for this horse to be in contention. Don't be surprised with a speed rating in the mid to high 90's

9/1, pp11 Hogwarts, has been improving lately, but is also coming of a very long layoff. Injury perhaps? While the rest might have done him good, I don't expect him to give the best he can until he's had a few races, so look for a speed rating in the low 90's. 9/1 pp12, Phone Don, has a good jockey but just doesn't have the speed to set him ahead. This horse just doesn't have the "oomph" to bust ahead going down the stretch.

Look for the 5,2,and 8 to contest for the lead as they go down the stretch. If I have to call who's going to pull it off, I'll have to go with the 8 to pull a mild upset.

WPS         8            $25         total bet $75

Ex Box     5-2-8     $50           total bet $300

Trifecta 8-2-5 $10 total bet $ 10

Total wager: $385

Post                 Horse                     Win         Place         Show
4                 SAINT MERTZY         $39.30     $16.80     $10.80
5                 SHELLEY'S ROAD                      $5.20       $4.50
9                 HUTCHINSON ROAD                                  $9.60

Exacta: $189.40
Trifecta: $2347.70


Time of race: 1:16 3/5

    I saw the 5 horse doing well, but made a cardinal mistake in not checking out the even lower odds horses, which apparently had enough to get on through. The 8 and 2 didn't do nearly as well as I had expected, and so, on this race, I squandered away $385 and got nothing in return. 

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Race # 4     Allowance    One mile    Fast Dirt    $7,600

All horses, 4 years old and up, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $270,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run

 Finally, we end up in Texas this week, with a nice 8 furlong race. 

This race is attractive in that its not a maiden race, and in that the odds on the favorite are 5/1. That means that if you hit your bet, you're going to make some money. Each week I look for one money making race, and this week, this one is my choice for this week. 

The easiest way to handicap this race will be to first rule out the horses which don't have a realistic chance of winning. I like to use the speed numbers as my initial index on which horses to look at more closely, so let's get started.

The first two horses are have posted speeds in the high 80's and low 90's, and as these horses are near the lead of the pack so far as odds go, figure that a speed in that area will produce your winner.

First, let's rule out the 3, since there isn't a hint of speed there. The 4 is improving in speed and doesn't seem to fade away at the mile marker, but it doesn't look like this horse can overcome the faster ones, so take the 4 out of the mix.

While doubtful, the 5 can't be ruled out yet. The 6 initially seems to be in a similar boat, with speed demonstrated a while back, but take a look at that jockey. A 2% winning rate! The guy couldn't find the finish line if the Goodyear blimp was hovering over it. Rule out the 6.

It's been a long layoff for the 7, but with a previous speed rating in the 90's let's not rule him out yet. Not probable, but no need to be hasty. The 8 and 9 horses definitely have a chance, but the 10 is terribly overclassed in this race. I like the stable owner's name (Kanu 25 -- go Arsenal!), but this horse isn't going to make it. The 11 is quirky, but has been in the speed bracket before, so keep him in. Same goes for the 12 and 13.

So, after this, here's what we have left: the 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13. I like to start with the favorites, and see whether any of the contenders look like they can take the favorite, so here goes.

The 5/1 favorite, pp8, Seriously Jest, is working from a 28 day cycle, which seems to favor results in the high 80's, but that was in the days when previous owner Man0war was working him. New owner, Lizbizit, now owns the 5, and sees this horse as a step up for the stable. With an adequate jockey, this horse should be able to fit into the middle of the pack, setting the stage for a close in the final 3 furlongs. Expect speed to be in the high 80's. Keep in mind that this horse is stepping down in class, so if he doesn't get bored or closed in, he should be there for the finish.

6/1 pp2, Friendly Sea, has an able jockey, and enjoys the closing roll. While his last outing revealed a 79 speed, figure that comes from a 28 day layoff, whereas this horse seems to like running a 14 day schedule. When primed, this horse comes in with a low 90 speed, but for this race, figure that the ramping up process is still in progress. Look for a speed in the mid 80's. Close, but no cigar.

6/1 pp9, Commander Star had a 91 in a lower class race, and hasn't fared well in classes much above this. This looks like the right race for this horse, but with a poor jockey to guide him, don't expect him to be able to make the break down the stretch. Look for a speed in the low to mid 80's.

7/1 pp 11, Rickety Beau, has an adequate jockey, but note that this horse seems to run out of "oomph" after 6 furlongs. Watch for this horse to jump out at the beginning of the race, but come in with a mid 80's speed rating when all's said and done.

7/1 pp 12, Pharque Rain, has a miserable jockey, with a win rate of only 5%. While this horse has proven speed in the mid 90's, the horse has also demonstrated that more isn't necessarily better when it comes to rest. We don't know whether the 63 day layoff is due to injury, which usually signals a speed drop, but I wouldn't hold my breath looking for another 94 speed rating. Figure this horse to jump out early, hold stay at the front of the pack all the way to the stretch, and then try to fight off the closers. Look for a speed in the low to mid 80's.

7/1 pp 1, Cup Brook, is a closer with a good jockey on for the ride. Having only the minimum 5 races under its belt, and having run only sprints, this horse did show the ability to give more in its last race, which was a mile. Keep in mind that this horse is coming down in class slightly, and figure that the 21 day cycle has worked for him in the past, and I think this horse can be in contention at the finish.

8/1 pp 5, May Brunette, had an 87 speed rating last time out on an off track, but don't let that fool you. The jockey isn't anything special here, and this horse hasn't done especially well at this class of race in the past. As a wannabe closer that doesn't have good guidance, and without the rocket legs to pull it off, don't count on this horse thundering home.

8/1 pp 13, Ratty Two, however, is a horse to watch. Except for the 7 horse, Ratty Two has the best jockey guiding him. While this is the horse's first time running on only 14 days rest (21 is his preferred cycle), note that the last race was at a considerably higher class, and that the horse didn't get pushed on the off track. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this horse is going for the gusto in this race, and will try to jump to the lead early, or by the 3rd call at the very least. While this horse has a tendency to fade in the final moments of the stretch at 8 furlongs, I think this horse will be in the mix.

13/1 pp 7, Rum Customer has the best jockey in this race, but unfortunately, that isn't going to be enough. Yes, this horse turned in a 94 speed rating at a higher class race a while back, but its comeing off a long layoff, which doesn't seem to favor this horse. Figure that in this race, the 7 will come in at the high 70's to mid 80's.

When all's said and done, it looks like the 8, 1, and 13 are the horses that stand out for me. I see the race with the 11, 12, and 13 jumping out at the starting gate. While all three will start to slow in the home stretch, the 8 and 1 are challenging for the lead. Give the edge to 8, then 13, and then 1, here's how my bets will go:

WPS 8 $100 total $300

PS 13 $100 total $200

S 1 $100 total $100

Ex Box 8-13-1 $50 total $300

Tri 8-13-1 $25 total $25

Tri 13-8-1 $25 total $25

total wagered: $950

Post         Horse                     Win                 Place         Show
13         RATTY TWO         $18.20             $8.30         $5.60
7         RUM CUSTOMER                             $12.30       $10.00
1         CUP BROOK                                                 `       $6.70

Exacta: $243.40
Trifecta: $2506.20

Time of race: 1:36 2/5

    While the 8 didn't come through for me, the 13 and 1 did. I hope you took heed of my suggestion that this was my money making race. For my bets on the 13, I picked up a place ($415), and show ($280), and for the 1, I picked up a show (335), for a total pickup on this race of $1030. Looks like the long layoff favored the 7, though. Not exactly a killing on this race, considering what I wagered, but at least I didn't lose any case in the prospect. And, if that cursed 8 had come close to the top three, I would have been talking thousands of dollars here and doing quite the happy dance. Total Return, $1,030.