Race # 10

The JODON BAY Handicap

Stakes    A mile and one half    Fast Dirt    $40,000    

All horses, 4 years old and up

The favorite, pp5 Cake Sparkle, goes off at even odds because of his overwhelming speed at 6 and 6.5 furlongs. He has a great kick when closing a 6.5 furlong race, but can he go twice the distance and still have that boost? Consider also that he's racing on 2 weeks rest, instead of his more profitable 3 weeks, and then consider that the jockey is going downhill this year, and you have to start having doubts as to whether this horse can pull off a 100+ speed rating at twice the distance in a less rested condition. Consider that he's a traditionally a closer, and with a mediocre jockey, and he'll be closing in on the 1 and 8 in order to pass the 2 so he can run with the 6 and 7. Maybe he'll be in the money, but he has to overcome some serious handicaps.

In light of the obstacles for the 5, the 5/1 horses, pp6 Ali's Tater and pp7 Deputy's race, show much more promise. The best career jockey at the track is on the 7, while the 6 is sporting a jockey with a 14% rate for this year. The difference is that the 7 doesn't have the speed ability of the 6. The 7 works best on a 14 day cycle, but has been working 21 day cycles for the last three races, and has been losing speed each time. The 7 comes from a strong, well managed stable, but I'm still going to favor the 6. Note that both of these horses have raced mile and a half routes with regularity, that both of them jump out at the beginning and try to run in front from gate to finish line, and you have the making of quite a duel while the 5 holds back in the pack.

The 6/1 horses, pp1 Royalty Beer Belly and pp8 Enough Not Denny also both have experienced and winning jockeys for this trip. Both have a tendency to make their move a bit past halfway and try to thunder down from behind. Both also have proven ability at more than the distance of this race, so look for them to be in the mix at the end. Not as likely to win as the 6 or 7, but these two certainly can't be ruled out.

Finally, we have the 12/1 pp 2 Spain Niner, which I expect to challenge the 6 and 7 for the early lead. This horse has a sufficient but not tremendous jockey, starts to have problems about 11 or 12 furlongs, but most importantly, doesn't routinely have the speed. I expect this horse to clock in around the medium 90's which isn't going to be enough to make it. The 13/1 pp 3 Bit of a Mixup, was running on a 14 day cycle until the last race, and now runs on 28 days, which suggest some rehab work was needed. While his jockey has a good career, he's been having a less than admirable year. Look for him to run in the high 80's, low 90's, and to be at the end of the pack.

The way I see it, the 7,6 and 2 break out of the gate and start to set the pace. If the 7 and 6 don't blow themselves on fighting for the lead early on, they should be leading the pack at the finish line. The 2 will fall back as the 8 and 1 push forward a coming down the stretch. The 5 will fight through the traffic, but will have too little too late to finish higher than 3rd.

WPS 6 $100

Ex Box 6-7 $50

Total Wagered $400

Post             Horse                     Win             Place                 Show
6                 ALI'S TATER         $13.10         $7.30             $4.70
7             DEPUTY'S RACE                          $6.60             $3.80
2                 SPAIN NINER                                                 $6.40

Exacta: $89.40
Trifecta: $1106.90


Time of race: 2:30 

This one went off just the way I expected it to, with all the right moves being made at all the right times. Yowza!

Total Recovered : On the WPS bet, I recovered  $1255 (655 +365 + 235), and on the exacta box, I recovered $2,235, for a total recovery on this race of $3,490.  

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Race # 5    Allowance    Six furlongs    Fast Dirt    $7,300

All horses, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of ONE within the last 6 months

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds

An old handicapping friend once told me that the first thing you do in a race is decide which horses just aren't going to have a realistic chance of winning, and then make your pick from those that remain. In this race, there are a number of horse that should quickly be dismissed. Lack of speed knocks out the 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, and 13, which leaves our pool of potentail winners as the 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, and 14.

The favorite is the 5/2 pp6, Hannah's Naskra, is running on the preferred 21 day rest, averages speed at 100+, has the ability to go the distance, and can have a devastating, rocket-like close. No wonder this horse is the barn's second most profitable property. Everything suggests this horse is going to be in the running, and that the speed rating will be in excess of 100.

Next up is the 9/2, pp2 Don the Slew. Look at the pattern of how the horse performs after a long layoff. Usually, this horse is racing after 21 or 28 days, not 49. The last time he had a long layoff, after week 1243 when the horse had a 105 speed rating, he took off 77 days, and then came back with a performance in the 90's. Competent jockey, but I think this horse needs some practice to get back to form, and I think this race will be that practice. Figure this horse to come in with a speed in the 90's., and watch for him to start to fade as they're finishing down the stretch.

We then have the 5/1 pp 14, Mr. YU from the stables of Kiri. I chose this race to handicap because another of the Kiri stable horses made me some money last week, and thought I'd see what that stable was running this week. The 14 is getting 21 days rest, but is running only a mediocre jockey. You might have noticed that this horse posts speed ratings of 105 to 111 when he works as a closer. If this horse has its kick, this horse will win. While the long layoff after week 1285 raises the question of a form reducing injury, I'm figuring it will show up at 100+, so this one is in the mix.

The 4 and 8 horses are both going off at 6/1. The pp8, Commander Foxy, is racing on 7 days rest. Last time this horse did that, he dropped 24 points of speed, and I don't expect this race to be much different. As a sometimes closer, look for the 8 to be in the back of the pack and never be able to make the move to the front. The pp 4, Buddy Out of Foo, has a good jockey, starts to close before the final turn, and can have a 100+ day, if he has enough rest, but he's going off with only 14 days rest. Watch for him to push forward after the second call, and expect the favorites to blow by going down the stretch.

That just leaves the pp3, 9/1 Sir Per Gessle. He's running on 2 weeks rest (not enough for him), with an average jockey, and he just isn't going to have the speed unless a miracle occurs. However, note that this horse likes to jump into the lead and hold it going into the stretch, although he fades out as the 6 furlong mark appears.

At the break, expect the 3 to jump to the lead, with the 6, 2, 14, 4, and 8 to following not too far behind. By the second call, look for the 8 to push ahead, while the 6 and 14 hang just behind. Coming down the stretch, I expect to see the 6 and 14 pushing to the lead, with the everyone else falling behind. I like the 14, but I like the 6 better.

While I feel comfortable that the 6 is going to win this race, I'm not "certain", so I'm not going to pace a bet to win. It ain't as glorious, but there's a lot of glory in just keeping a positive cash flow to the bankroll when you're handicapping. Then again, there are trifectas at the opposite end of the spectrum. 

S                    6         $100

PS               14         $50

Ex. box         6-14     $50

Tri         6-14-2         $25

Tri         6-14-4         $25

Tri         14-6-2         $25

Tri         14-6-4         $25

Total Wagered $ 400

Post         Horse                                     Win         Place         Show
2             DON THE SLEW                     $11.50     $6.70         $4.00
8             COMMANDER FOXY                            $8.50         $5.50
4             BUDDY OUT OF FOO                                             $5.00

Exacta: $77.10
Trifecta: $597.80

Time of race: 1:09 3/5

After starting off so well in my first race, the last two turn out to be duds. The 6 comes in 4th and the 14 decides its time to take a vacation. While all of the money horses made my initial cut, the 2 surprised me by coming in with a very strong performance. 

Total Recovered: $0

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Race # 10     Allowance    One mile    Fast Dirt    $12,400

Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Non-Winners of FOUR Lifetime

The favorite is the 7/2 pp4 Southerly, is running on 14 days rest, has a lousy jockey, but closes well down the stretch. Look for a speed rating in the high 80's to mid 90's. Also going off at 7/2 is pp8, Claudia. Working out of a 21 day rest, the extra time off has always helped her in the past, so look for some improvement to the low 90's. Claudia is being ridden by a more experienced jockey, which should help. While the 4 closes down the stretch, look for the 8 to start making a strategic positioning move after the 2nd call, and to be in place to close hard after the third call. Between the two, I favor the 8.

Crass Kelly, the pp. 1 horse going off at 4/1, had a 104 speed rating 2 races back, but that looks like an abnormality. Stable owner Gavinw was racing her on turf, but switched over three races back to try her on dirt. Note that this horse is coming off a 70 day layoff, which suggest she was forced into layoff after the last race. Since it takes her a while to get back up to speed, expect her to ring in at the high 70's, low 80's. Don't expect to see this horse in the race at the finish.

Next up is the pp 6, Carla, who goes off at 5/1. This is a turf horse racing a dirt track with a lousy jockey and mediocre speed compared to the 4 and 8. Don't see this horse at the finish.

Take a look at the 8/1 pp 3, Shore's Lucky. Although she raced in the 60's and 70's, she was claimed by The Mainman stable in week 1376, has dramatically improved to perform in the 90's. This horse usually likes to jump out to the front, and with a good post position and adequate jockey, that could happen. She doesn't seem to hold up well at the finish, but she's usually in the money. While she's racing with only 14 days of rest, that isn't unusual for her. Look for this horse to be in the top 3 at the close.

The 8/1 pp 10, His Rollers, has a competent jockey, 14 days rest, and steadily improving speed. While this stable is doing things right, I think this horse is over-reaching.

Asteroid, the pp7 horse going off at 11/1, does best when able to take the lead early on. As a lesser jockey is riding her, don't expect this horse to jump off to the front of the pack early on. With an average speed in the high 70's, low 80's, she isn't going to have enough oomph (that's an official racing term, by the way) to power in at the stretch. Also, keep in mind that this horse runs great sprints, but doesn't look good in the only other route she's run. Look for this horse to fade as we get near the finish line.

At the start of the race, look for the 3 and 7 horses to try to gain an early lead. By the second call, look for the 3 to be staying at the front, while the 8 comes to fight for the lead. Going down the stretch, the 4 makes her move, and the only question is whether the 3 can hang on. If the 3 runs like I expect, it should result in some nice payoffs.

 WPS 3 $40 total $120

Ex Box 3-4-8 $10 total $60

Trifecta 8-3-4 $10 total $10

Trifecta 8-4-3 $10 total $10

Total wagered : $200

Post     Horse                             Win     Place     Show
4         SOUTHERLY                 $9.20     $5.60     $3.60
7         ASTEROID                                  $12.20   $7.60
10     HIS ROLLERS                                             $6.30

Exacta: $122.50
Trifecta: $819.70

Time of race: 1:36 

 Saw the 4 in play, but the 3 faded before her time. Give a lot of credit to Novanora's second place finisher Asteroid. I think it may be time for me to reconsider whther that horse can run a route! Exotic bets didn't pan out, but then again neither did the standard WPS bet. Guess that's why they call it gambling, eh?

Total Recovered : $0

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