All horses, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of ONE except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter

Favorite, 9 pp, #56629, is racing on 2 weeks rest instead of his more profitable 3. Look for speed to go in low 80's. Can go the distance, and should be closing at the end. 4-1 American Beau, 11 pp, #6185, is coming off an unusual 5 week layoff, but has the speed ability to win if favorite Pern doesn't give his best. Watch for him to burst forward after 11 furlongs or so and be in contention at the finish. Also, note that the stable is an experienced one, and this horse has finished in the top 3 in each last reported race. On the outside at pp12, the 4-1 contender Our Bagels, #12471, is the horse the others will be chasing shortly after the halfway mark. He comes on strong after a mile, and knows how to hold a lead. Good barn, and If he matches his last speed number, he's a winner. Still, the edge here goes to American Beau. 6-1 Fried Storm, pp7, #56618 has a lot of speed, but a lower class races. He hasn't gone further than 9 in recent memory, and he's always a closer. A definite contender, and if he adapts to the longer race and faster pace, he could finish in the top three. 6-1 Greedy Favorite, pp 5, #21553, is stepping down in class, and always seems to be closing a little too late to matter. Still, he has the speed to be in contention at the end, and since he's been racing 14 furlongs or over recently, he knows how to go the distance. Has raced worldwide recently, but not figuring him to be sharp this time, and figuring his closing push to not quite cut it. 9-1Tongue Hunter, pp 1, #1300, had lackluster speed in his last race, but it was a rare turf race. If he didn't hurt himself, he could be in contention as well.

The best jockeys at the track are riding the 4, 3, and 11. The 3 isn't going to do make it unless Superman's riding him. The hottest jockey at the track is on the 4, 15-1 Kingdom Star, #40306, which did well at a mile, but hasn't proven stamina, and has less speed than the favorites. Jockey V. Jennings will get all he can out of him, but the 11 is the best horse of these three, and with a competent jockey, has the best shot.

WPS 11 $100 total $300

Ex Box 11-9-12 $10 total $60

S 11 $500 total $500

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Race # 6 Allowance Four and one half furlongs Fast Dirt $11,100

All horses, 5 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO within the last 3 months

Favorite, pp 10, #5077, Fit Chief, going off at 5-1, isn't as impressive as he seems. He needs 3 weeks of rest to give his best, so look for a small slip in speed from his normal higher 90's. He's going to be closing, if anything, but not my favorite.6-1 One Cigar, pp 5, #8799, has a lot of speed, has raced consistently well. His only problem is fading like a stone in water after 4 furlongs or so. Figure him to finish in the money. 7-1 Ice Robin, pp 1, #2427, looks like he blew himself tired in week 4811, but after a long rest, might have the stuff. He's raced over 100 before, and while I only expect him to be in the 90's, he also is a closer, but one who seems to have some problems clearing the pack. 7-1 Three Pack, pp8, # 12031, is working her regular 21 day rotation, and always seems to jump out ahead of the pack at the beginning. If he can hold pace through the race, and keep his speed in mid 90's, he could make it happen. 8-1 Mister Juvenile, pp 6, #8802, likes those 5 week layoffs, and should be making his move as they come around the last corner and down the stretch. Figure him to go in the low to mid 90's. Figure his last race was a fluke, and look for him to do well here. If he can get past One Cigar in the stretch, he can win. 8-1 Cash Hermitz, pp 9, #4526, has been running routes lately, but he's had his victories in the sprints. While he has the speed and ability, I don't figure him to break out of the pack in time for it to matter in this very short sprint. Also, watch the 9-1 Roy Prospector, pp2, #34584. He has the speed, the ability, and 2 weeks, rest and can compete. Seeing this many competitive horses together in such a short race, I don't have to look at the rest of the field to say this isn't a race anyone should be betting on.

This is included as an example of the kind of race you really shouldn't be bet unless you're willing to risk losing your cash. Since the favorite is going off at 5-1, it looks attractive, but you have too many horses in real contention, and in a short race like this, any of 5 or 6 horses have a good shot to win. But, if you have to play this one, choose any of the leaders across the board, and then try a little exacta box. I figure even a show bet should cover the bets I'm going to make, and if an exacta bet hits, I'm going to be lighting cigars with 20's. Be hopeful, but be ready to wave bye-bye to your cash in this hard to pick sprint.

Everything being equal, I'll put my money on the six. He has jockey F. Mac riding him, and Mac is in the money 48% of the time. Habib is a good jockey, but his horse raced 2 weeks ago, and will drop in speed in this race.

WPS 6 $100 total $300

Ex Box 6-8-5 $10 total $60

AFTERMATH: 

Post Horse Win Place Show
5 ONE CIGAR             $14.50 $8.70 $5.20
6 MISTER JUVENILE            $8.60 $6.20
2 ROY PROSPECTOR                      $6.80

Exacta: $132.80
Trifecta: $1367.30

Time of race: :51

Hit the exacta for $664 and scored on the place and show bets on the 6 for $430 and $310 respectively. Over all, made  $1,404 on this race. 

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Race # 1 Allowance Seven and half furlongs Fast Dirt $7,300

Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of ONE except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter

The favorite 4pp horse, Aces over Queens, #7552, is going off at even odds. From her history, the 4 looks dominating in speed and ability. But look at the jockey. He's only won 2% of his races this year, and only in the money 12% of the time. 7 furlongs is a long enough race for a jockey to definitely matter, and the favorite's jockey just isn't very good. The 8, 5/1 shot Fifth Robin, # 71529,  and 9, 7/2 shot Unbridled Score, #51453, also have weaker jockeys, but the track favorite is riding the 3 horse, Allison Bill, #47498, which is going off at 8-1 odds. The 3 is coming off a comfortable layoff, can produce speed in the mid 80's, and if she gets a good ride, could easily be the winner. While the favorite usually has much better speed and class, she usually loses speed with a 21 day layoff, so this could be a close one. 

I can isolate the top two finishers to the 3, 4, 8, and 9 horses. I give an edge to the 4 horse, but the choice of jockey troubles me. And the best jockey at the track is on the 3. Just the situation for an exacta box.

Ex Box     3, 4, 8, 9     $10             Total $120

Race # 4 Claiming ($25,000) One mile Firm Turf $14,400

All horses, 4 years old and up

Ah, to be in Spain in the springtime. 

Favorite pp. 3 Sir Tricky, # 50430, even odds, isn't as good as he look. He has higher speed, better class, but he hasn't proven that he'll come first in a mile race in a better time than the 7 or 6 horses. Keep in mind that he doesn't do well on turf, and this is a turf race. Known Chief, pp7, goes off at 7/5, # 2719, and looks more convincing to be able to win this race when all's said and done. Turf experience, good speed, too. Don't write off the pp6 horse, Fancy Dancer, #14961, which goes off at 11/1. Not as much speed or same class, but on a good day, this horse can make a difference. If Sir Tricky's stable is only going for a warm up instead of the win, a bet on the 6 horse could be quite lucrative.

The best jockey for the Spain tracks will be riding the 4 horse, the second best will be riding the 6, and the third best has the favorite 3 horse. A mediocre but veteran jockey will be on the 7, and the jockey's lack of winning ways draw concern as to whether the 7 will be able to find room to run. The 4 horse has demonstrated a consistent speed in the 60's for turf tracks, while the 6 has run turf tracks in the 70s on a regular basis. The 7 have an even better speed rating on turf, but keep in mind that the overwhelming favorite, the 3 horse, only has 90 speed ratings for dirt, but falls into the 60's on turf.

WPS             6         $10             total $30

WPS            7          $100           total $300