Celebrial's Tip Sheet Analysis for 22 June 2002 - week 1432
Overview
I'll try to provide analysis as to why I think my picks will do well, and give you suggestions. Expect to see my thoughts for the coming week posted by sometime Friday night or earlier.
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. In the four weeks of posting this tip sheet, I've had only one losing week, and if you had followed my advice, you would have $4,200 more in your stable's treasury right now!
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
Race ID:1432.3514
Race # 14 The Gold Glass Grade I Two miles Firm Turf $500,000
All horses, 4 years old and up
This is probably the first and last time I handicap a race where the jockeys include John Lennon, the Fonz, and a dog. Even without that added excitement, this shapes up to be an exciting race, especially when you consider that it will be 2 miles on turf for half a million bucks.
The 9/5 favorite, pp 6 Green Bow, comes from the reputable stables of mano2, and is well deserving of being the favorite. This horse only gets stronger after 13 furlongs, and somehow has enough left over to still put distance between himself and the competition at that late stage of these marathon routes. Consider that he's an experienced turf horse, with an able jockey, and also keep in mind that this horse is getting 28 days rest instead of his usual 21, and he looks even fiercer. With the added rest, I wouldn't be surprised to see a speed rating over 100 from the winner, which looks to be this horse.
Next, we have the 4/1, pp2, Italy Sky, which is also a turf horse, and which is also used to going longer distances. Note, however, that with one exception, this horse has had trouble keep up past 13 furlongs, and add into the mix a lousy jockey, and this horse isn't looking as good as you might think. Also, note that this horse is going off with 35 days rest, when he's used to racing on 14 days rest. The interval between the last two races was 21 days, which suggests that this horse was begging for a rest. The question now is whether he comes back refreshed and ready or out of shape and lethargic. Unless this is just a training race, expect this horse to turn in a speed rating in the high 90's to low 100's, which is consistent with the horse's regular placing in that area.
The other 4/1, pp 9, Kangaroo Bob, initially looks to be a more formidable adversary, but that fades with a little analysis. Notice that Kangaroo Bob hasn't gone longer than a 10 furlong race, and has a tendency to drop position as the pack closes to the wire. While he's been improving in speed ratings recently, he hasn't been in the same class as the 6, and even with a competent jockey named "thedog", its doubtful that his speed numbers will approach last races's 108. While good on turf, this horse is moving up in class, and hasn't been tested for the longer distances. While he should be in the first 4 or 5, don't look for him to cross the finish line first.
Next up is the 6/1, pp 1, Sapphire Deelite, which immediately gets off to a deficit with Mama Mia as a meager jockey along for the ride. On the downside, this horse is going with 14 days rest for the second time in a row, which is contrary to the 21/14/21/14 cycle this horse has been doing. Perhaps the best thing this horse has going for it is the fact that it has consistently raced at this 2 mile length, and it has consistently won at that length. All things considered, figure this horse to come in the mid to high 90's, enough to be a threat, but not enough to be a betting lock.
The 7/1 horse, pp 4, is Judge Zach, with the able Henry Winkler along for the ride as jockey. This horse hasn't cracked the 100 speed barrier in some time, and doesn't looked poised to do it in this race. While this horse has raced and won at this distance, its performance in a 2 mile race was on yielding turf and it turned in a winning performance of 3 seconds more than we should be expecting in this race. Not a horse to wholly count out, but not a horse we should be expecting to surprise us with a win.
The 9/1, pp 5, Royalty Cecil, has one of the best jockeys in the race, John Lennon, on board for this ride, which can only help. While this horse is steady at 14, it hasn't turned in an impressive performance at this distance, and the speed has been in flux in the 90's. If this horse is going to make it, it will need to stay in the pack right behind the leaders, and will then have to make its move in the last turn and down the stretch. Even with Lennon on for the ride, and even with the recent 100 speed rating, I don't expect this horse to break 100 this week. Look for this horse to be coming down the stretch with too little too late.
We now turn to the 14/1, pp8, Taxi Jess. He benefits from a competent jockey, but his speed rating just makes it improbable for him to win. Add to that this horse seems to fade after 14 furlongs, and you have a recipe for this horse to be pulling up the rear. Not enough class to deal with the big boys in this race.
The 24/1, pp 3, Beastie Augie, doesn't have the speed and doesn't have the jockey. The final entry, 31/1 pp7, Rancid Avenger, has a good jockey but not enough speed, not enough class, and falls behind in the last furlong of the 2 milers he's run. Consider that he's turned in a respectable performance last time out at this length, but don't expect this horse to be in the mix.
Its not a large field, but at the gate, watch for the 2 to jump out to set the pace, with the 4 and 7 on his tale and the rest of the pack holding back. About halfway, watch for the 5 and 6 to start making their moving, pushing forward by the final turn. By 12 furlongs, the 2 starts to fade, and if the 4 has it in him, he will continue to push the pace. Look for the 6 to win by a length or two, with the 9, 2 and 7 following. Looks like the oddsmakers got it right this time.
WPS 6 $200 total $600
S 6 $500 total $500
Ex whl 6-9,2,7 $20 total $60.
Total $1,160
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
9 KANGAROO BOB
$10.70 $5.50 $4.40
8 TAXI JESS
$13.10 $7.70
1 SAPPHIRE DEELITE
$5.10
Exacta: $151.90
Trifecta: $1104.30
Time of race: 3:30 1/5
Much to my and my wallet's chagrin, pp6 Green Bow didn't come through for me, resulting in a total loss for this race. While the 2 didn't jump out, the 4 did, but he was following the 9 all along. Guess we know now that the 9 can go the distance, and do it successfully.
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Race ID:1432.1105
Race # 5 Allowance Six furlongs Firm Turf $6,400
Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $95,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run
From the stately turf of Longchamp, we move on to Ohio for a nice little 6 furlong, $6,400 turf race. With 9 horses entered, the best odds are still 5/1, and the longshot is 11/1. And these are horses which have run before. With a spread of odds like this, this race begs to be handicapped, since a winner or exacta will fund that nice little filly you want to claim. Let's go.
Start with the 5/1, pp1, Frankenstein nine, with a jockey named Luck, who only wins 6% of the time. The recent speed ratings of high 50's to 60 are deceiving, since those marks were set on dirt. When racing turf, this horse comes down to the mid 40's. On the comeback trail from a 50+ day layoff a few races ago, this horse has been improving, but is now facing a 14 day rest instead of a 21 or more. While stable owner assasin2 may be trying to eke out a quick boost before resting this horse, I'm not sure the 14 day cycle will work here. Expect this horse to clock in the low to mid 50's.
Next is the 5/1, pp5, Saint Tiz, whose jockey is hardly much better. This horse is coming off a layoff since week 1369, and her last three races were on dirt. While she may be able to shine on her first race back, she still has to deal with her fading tendency after 5 furlongs. Expect a speed rating in the mid to high 50's. Of the 4 horses going off at 5/1 odds, this horse gets the nod, since she has lesser obstacles to overcome.
The third horse to have odds of 5/1 is the pp7, Star Affliction, who is burdened by yet another inadequate jockey. While mostly a dirt horse, Star Affliction's sole turf appearance in recent memory showed that she didn't lose pace on turf. If she hadn't run last week, and the week before, I'd have better hopes for her, but I expect we'll see her fall well behind the leaders in this race, and be unable to make the closing that she requires. Expect speed ratings in the mid 50's.
The final 5/1 horse is the pp9, Mother Bubba, with yet another miserable jockey. This horse has never won before, and has only had a couple of trips on the turf. While her previous speed on dirt has been impressive compared to today's entries, she slipped to a 57 in her last race, which was on turf, and which was last week. This is another horse where the stable owner has decided to race her horse three weeks in a row. While I've seen the occasional miracle, I'm not expecting to see it here. Look for a speed rating in the low 50's.
The first of the 6/1 horses is the pp2, Sky Bailing, which has one of the better jockeys in this race on board. This horse has only raced on turf once before, but not in recent memory. Still, this horse's progress in the past few races has shown that on dirt, she can turn in ratings in the low 60's to high 50's. Something tells me that this horse can be expected to finish in the top 4 if the jockey is able to get her into the open by the third call. Expect a speed rating in the high 50's. Watch for her to make her move after the third call and into the stretch if she's going to make it.
The next 6/1 horse is the pp3 Louisville Burden, which has a lot of positives going for her. Start with the fact that she has one of the best jockeys available, and consider that she's getting a goodly amount of rest, although that could have been as a result of a possible injury layoff. On turf, this horse has been able to turn in a 61, while on dirt, this horse has produced results in the high 60's to low 70's on dirt. This horse has found her niche in the 6 furlong races, and if the long layoff and reasons causing it haven't hurt her too badly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a performance in the low to mid 60's. Watch for her to jump out by or shortly after the first call, and to never look back. This is a horse to watch, and is the best candidate to win so far in this analysis.
The last of the 6/1 horses is the pp4, Star Spangled, which enjoys a competent jockey, and which has experience on the turf. The one downside here is her inability to hold position down the stretch. Expect her to jump off the gun and try to grab the lead, possibly dueling with the 3, but don't be surprised if she gives way in the stretch. I expect this horse to finish in the top 4 or 5, and very possibly higher, but I'm not expecting her to hold position well enough, even with her excellent pace. A contender, to be sure, but I don't this she is THE Contender.
We move on to the 7/1 horse, pp6, Perfect Plie, who will have the advantage of the experienced jockey Grunhard, on board. This is a turf horse, as opposed to the other horses which seem to be dirt horses trying out the turf. On the downside, this horse hasn't raced since week 1355, and those long layoffs make me nervous. Stable owner Misti has a number of horses entered this week, and most are good horses well positioned to make a run for the wire, which suggests that this horse has been given every opportunity to rest and now make a bid in sharp condition. That being said, this horse hasn't finished in the top 5 in recent memory, even with speed ratings in the mid 60's. Look for this horse to still turn in an outing in the low to mid 60's, and even with a good jockey, I'm not convinced that this horse knows what its like to win. A possibility, but not my favorite.
We finish with the 11/1 longshot, pp 9 Rare Storm, who has a forgettable jockey on board. This horse seems to enjoy the turf, and has turned in ratings of 50 and 61 on her two turf trips, but she's another horse which fades at the end of 6 furlongs, and frankly, I don't think she'll be able to command the speed necessary.
In the final analysis, expect the 3 and 4 to jump off to an early start, and look for everyone else to try to make the challenge. I'm expecting to see some push from the rest of the pack by the final turn, but look for congestion to hamper the efforts of the closers. I see the 3 being able to hold on for the finish, and look for the 4 and 5 to be in contention at the wire.
As one of the main reasons I've chosen this race is the nice display of odds, I'm willing to risk a little more on some of the more exotic bets. While this wouldn't be a sound strategy with horses going at lower odds, just clocking 1 winner at 6/1 odds gives me a chance to make some nice pocket change and still cover any losing bets. This race is definitely a risky one to bet, but the possible rewards are too good to pass up. This race should be my money maker this week if the 3 does as well as I hope
WPS 3 $400 total $1200
S 4 $100 total $100
S 5 $100 total $ 100
Tri box 3,4,5,2,6 $20 total $1,200
Ex box 3, 4, 5 $100 total $600
Total$ 3,200
AFTERMATH
Race # 5
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
5 SAINT TIZ
$12.20 $6.10 $4.40
4 STAR SPANGLED
$8.20 $4.40
8 MOTHER BUBBA(ENG)
$4.80
Exacta: $95.30
Trifecta: $576.60
Time of race: 1:12 2/5
While I saw the 5 and the 4, the 3 decided to not show up for this race, much to my chagrin. Yeah, I picked up $220 for the show bet on the 5, and $220 for the show bet on the 4, and made $4,765 on the exacta, for a total of $5205, for a profit on this race of $2,005. Still, this could have been a killer winner for me, if only that 3 had decided to run. Curses!
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Race ID:1432.3308
Race # 8 Allowance Two miles Firm Turf $46,200
Fillies and mares, 4 year olds, Non-Winners of TWO except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter
We wrap up this week by taking a trip back across the pond to the lovely Ascot course for a two mile turf race. At first glance, one would expect the 3 horse, going off at 1/5 odds, to make a clean and impressive sweep here, but I've chosen this race because the 2 isn't nearly as much of a pushover as the odds seem to reflect.
The favorite 1/5, pp 3, Dandy Illini, is an impressive horse, with speed ratings consistently in the mid to high 80's for turf work between 8 and 10 furlongs. With good jockeys on all mounts in this race, I focus on other indicia, such as the fact that this horse raced just last week, which is a deviation from his 2 week layoff between races. While that may not make the defining difference, I certainly expect it to come into play. Also, I note that while this horse has demonstrated that it still can pull away at 10 furlongs, this races is 6 furlongs longer than that, and this horse is untested at such a distance. Watch for her to try to grab the lead early on, and failing that, at the halfway point. The smart bet would be to have this horse hold back until that halfway point, and then turn on the juice, but I'm not sure that that alone would be enough to guarantee success at this distance.
We next come to the 4/1, pp2, Hyvinka, has at least as good a jockey, and more importantly, has consistently raced at the two mile distance, turning in speed ratings in the low to high 70's. While the oddsmakers are looking at the overwhelming speed of the favorite, this horse has demonstrated a slightly lesser ability at this race. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this horse is around at the end, and you find the favorite huffing and puffing to make it at the finish line. This horse will make its move at the halfway point, and so, if the favorite dashes out and tries to set a fast pace, this horse will benefit from saving something for the finish.
The other 4/1 horse, pp 4, Unbridled Thunder, has an able jockey but gets speed ratings in the high 60's to mid 70's. On any given day, this horse could compete with the favorite or 2, but on average, don't expect him to be able to take either. While the stable owner, gooner, may support the best soccer team in Britain, I don't think his horse will do quite as well. Watch for this horse to try to make the early break and compete as a pace setter, but look for him to fall back coming down the stretch.
The final horse in this race is the 37/1, pp1 Hurricane Say. With speed ratings in the 50's, I don't expect this horse to be in contention. This horse favors closing, but with the pace that will be set, and the quality of the competition, expect this horse to come in 4th.
Look for the favorite, 3, to jump out and start dueling with the 2 and 4 to set the pace. Expect the 2 to wisely hold up until the halfway point, letting the 3 set the pace and the 4 challenge her for it. By the halfway marker, look for the 4 to start falling behind and get passed by the 2. At the end, I'm looking for the 2 to come in first, with the favorite 3 to make a bid for second place.
W 3 $200 total $200
PS 3 $500 total $1000
total $ 1,400
Total Wagered for week 1432: $5,760
AFTERMATH:
Watch this race!
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
2 HYVINKA
$10.10 $4.20 $2.10
4 UNBRIDLED THUNDER
$4.90 $2.10
3 DANDY ILLINI
$2.10
Exacta: $61.30
Trifecta: $55.90
Time of race: 3:33 3/5
PP 3, Dandy Illini ran this race, and all I got was a measly $525 for his show bet. The favorite may have been huffing and puffing, but he was doing so first across the finish line, which scotched this bet.
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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1425 : $5,560
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1411: $5730
PROFIT/LOSS +$170.00
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE: +$4,452.50
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
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