Celebrial's Tip Sheet Analysis

 for 
17 June 2002 -- week 1425

 I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. In the three weeks of posting this tip sheet, I haven't had a losing week yet, and if you had followed my advice, you would have $5,022.50 more in your stable's treasury right now!

 Due to time constraints, only one race will be handicapped this week. Look for the usual 3-4 races for next week, 1432

Race 1425.1314

Its just another moist day and overcast day in the hollows of West Virginia for the 1425 Special Stakes Race. Track is in good, but not fast condition, which will favor the horses who can go longer and who jump out quickly (would you give your best performance after eating mud for 7 furlongs?) 

9/5 favorite, pp 5, Incomplete Pass, goes with 28 days rest for the first time in recent memory. Noticeable for her impressive speed marks in the high 90's and even topping 100 several weeks ago. If only her performance were consistent!. While the rest will help her, and while her closing ability will come into play, the real question is whether her jockey can force her to the lead by the finish marker. Jockey Watters is experienced and able, and is having a better year than usual, but isn't as stellar as the 3 horse's jockey. Look for her in the top 3.

 Pp3, Wild and Willing, goes off at 2/1, and gets 28 days rest instead of her usual 21 days. She has speed from the low to upper mid 90's, and has consistently finished first in smaller fields. Unless another horse is pretty impressive, this should be the horse to beat. She has the best jockey at the track, which can only help. This looks like the winner. 

Pp 7, the 4/1 Dash for Duckets, only gets 14 days rest, instead of the more helpful 21 or 28 day period which produced her sole speed mark in the 90's. If well guided, this horse should make her move between the first and second call, and then its just a question of whether she can hang on. I wouldn't bet on that, though, as her speed is routinely in the 80's, and as she doesn't have enough rest.With an average jockey on board, look for her to finish in the middle of this pack 

Pp1, the 5/1 Angelic Bride, may not have raced in the higher classes as her competition has done, but its worth noting that after her recent 21 day layoff, she turned in a speed rating of 98. As she's getting another week of rest, for a total of 28 days for this race, look for her to blaze away coming down the stretch to be in contention. The only real downside here is that she likes running in big packs, and this race has a smaller pack. Still, a horse to keep an eye on, until you conside that this jockey is only winning 2% of his races this year. With everything else going right, this choice of jockey makes it all wrong. 

Pp 6, the 5/1 Dancing in the Rain, jumped up in class on 21 days rest to produce a 101 speed rating, considerably higher than her usual performance in the 80's. Once again going on 21 days rest, stable owner prufrockaj is clearly hoping that lightning strikes twice. While that could happen, we note that this horse hasn't completed 8 furlongs recently, and has a tendency to fade at the end of those shorter races. All things being equal, don't look for this horse to be first over the wire, even though she has the second best jockey at the track. Still, don't be surprised if she finishes in the top 3. 

Pp 4, the 13/1 Nightingale, recently turned in her highest speed rating of 88, but on average, she comes in somewhere in the 70's. While she's experienced the good dirt conditions before, she fades by 8 furlongs. Don't count on this horse. 

Finally, we have pp2, the 65/1 She's a Token, which races in the 60's, fades at this length, and hasn't done much to impress recently. While the good dirt conditions will be favorable to an old turf horse like this one, we still don't expect that to be enough advantage. 

WPS     3                 $200         total $ 600 

Ex Box 3-5-6           $20           total $120 

Trifecta 3-5-6            $20          total $20

Total Wagered:     $740

AFTERMATH:

Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!

Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!

Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!

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