Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis for

12 October 2002 - Week 1544

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1537 was almost a non event, with no horses from my stable racing, and with a modest profit, but a profit nonetheless, at the windows. Next week, I should have a few horses running, and will be searching for a big payoff at the windows.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

TIPS

Race ID:1544.1106
Claiming ($10,000) A mile and one sixteenth Firm Turf $5,300
All horses, 3 years old, Non-Winners of TWO Lifetime

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 74148 PRIVATE ENSIGN (5) kingsswan R Jackson 19/1
2 8012 FRENCH LEAVE(IRE) (5) captain L Clayton 11/1
3 68993 BREED BEAU (5) gipper T Seals 5/1
4 8257 WONDERBOY ADRIAN (5) hushwing K Wheeler 14/1
5 16740 SUCCESSFUL DIAMOND (5) wtracing R Ridenour 11/1
6 56238 MUTINY ON THE BAY (5) pagasus J Elizondo 5/1
7 1477 STORMY REEF(IRE) (5) jimbo32 M Grunhard 8/1
8 22638 ROCKY CAT (5) oaklawn88 Q Redden 6/1
9 66227 JOKER WENCH(IRE) (5) kennyg O Smith 5/1
10 34095 DREAM IN THE SONS (5) hlskiba2 B Clayton 29/1
11 71410 SALTY MUSIC(IRE) (5) jublain D Duper 11/1
12 6349 SUPERNOVA 'AUS' (5) dannyboy J Everett 9/1

We start this week in Ohio with a slightly longer turf race with some nice odds if we can pick a winner.

The 1 is a turf horse used to shorter distances, but with the ability to hit the mid 60's at 9f on turf.

The 2 also handles turf well, and clocks in the high 60's, but put in a 77 on good turf at 8.5f. A bit better than the 1

The 3 is a 5/1 favorite with no experience on turf, and which only runs shorter races, where he usually fades by 6f. I still like the 1 the best.

The 4 could be a jewel in the rough. He's put in speeds of 71 at 8.5 and 9 f, and while its been on dirt, one of those was in slop. Even if he wasn't 14/1, he'd be my new best friend in this race. With 14 days rest, i think he could duplicate another 71 for this race.

The 5 has some speed at sprints, but doesn't appear to have much staying power for a 9f race. While he's 1/3 in the money on his 3 turf races, I'm not confident that's his element. Doesn't bump the 4 or 1 from my favorites list.

The 6 is another 5/1 favorite, and this guy have the package. He's done 85 on an 8.5f turf track in higher class traffic, and this race favors him. I'm looking at a 6-4-1 finish now.

The 7 is another dirt horse in a turf race. Yeah, he's pump mid 70's speed figures at 6 and 8.5f recently, but put him on turf, and its anyone's guess. Might come in 3rd if he's lucky, but otherwise, he doesn't crack my top 3.

The 8 has a better jockey than most of the rest of the horses, and he's mostly a dirt horse. He has raced 7 on both dirt and turf, and showed that turf didn't help him there. Ever since his maiden win, he's been in a little over his head. While this is a better race for him, I'm still not convinced he'll be in the top 3. Close, though.

The 9 has raced turf, and raced close to this distance before, has shown he should finish with a speed in the low to mid 70's. He knocks the 4 from the second place throne, so now we're 6-9-4. Note that the 9 is also a 5/1 favorite.

The 10 only has 2 races so far, but neither suggest success at 9 furlongs on turf.

The 11 is familiar with the turf, just jetted over from Italy, where he placed in an 11f turf race 28 days ago. He's turned in a 79 at 9f on turf, but that was in the glory days of stable owner skinhappy's reign. Jublain is the new stable owner and this is a big and costly move that will barely be covered by a win. While he can be in play, and I have a feeling for his ability, I just don't have the confidence he's primed for his best work. Give Jublain a few more weeks, and I'd pick this guy in the top 3, though.

WPS 6 $2000 total $6000

PS 9 $2000 total $4000

Ex Bx 6-9 $2000 total $4000

S 6 $6000 total $6000

S 9 $6000 total $6000

Total Wagered : $26,000

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                         Win         Place         Show
8         ROCKY CAT             $14.20     $6.90         $4.90
12     SUPERNOVA 'AUS'                   $9.70         $6.30
3     BREED BEAU                                                 $4.40

Exacta: $148.40
Trifecta: $809.00

Time of race: 1:45 1/5

Not even close on this one. The 6 made a push at the 3rd call, but just fell behind after that, as does my kitty, dropping 26 big ones on this race.

******************************************************

Race ID:1544.8407

Allowance One mile Firm Turf $16,200 Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $240,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 39235 CHIPS AND SAUCE oldage J Smith 26/1
2 42545 VIGOROUS jollyroger T Grady 4/1
3 11868 CAPTAIN'S PICK CB seamen J Palacio 46/1
4 37451 SMOKIN BUDA bertaal R Beliveau 33/1
5 15525 SIAM PORT manndar H Wilkins 3/1
6 42474 REALITY BITES'AUS' dandaman J Donato 5/1
7 18535 CHAMPIONS CLASSIC iago2 F Waldron 10/1
8 6417 SECRET PEGASUS mdavis2 D Clevenger 7/2
9 8836 NIJINSKY DARBY(GB) darbyfarm R Zuniga 3/1

As you may have noticed, there are now four new track, in Eastern Kentucky, Puerto Rico, South Africa, and Jamaica. To commemerate the brave souls who have decided to be part of the inaugural event, I decided that we would head to South Africa, have a nice cuppa SAC (South African Coffee), and tout a race. We end up with a spread of odds in a 8f turf race. The trick this time, is that not a single jockey has ever had a single race before at this track. They sure aren't all made equal, but that's the way they're ranked for right now.

For this race, I'm going back to my habit of looking at the horses with best odds first.

Two horses share the favorite role. First is the 3/1, pp5 Siam Port, which has won each of her last 3 races, all on turf, all 8 to 9 furlongs, and all with speeds bracketing 75. The change of stable ownership occured during an extremely long layoff, but this guy still looks classy.

The other 3/1 is the pp9 Nijinksy Darby. She's raced mostly on turf, but chose dirt for her last outing. She's proven her ability to run well at long distances and closer effectively. Coming of a long, long layoff (i.e. week 1467), I'm not confident she'll give her best this time out, though. Still favor the 5.

The 7/2, pp8, Secret Pegasus, has turf experience and is coming down in class for this race, and while her speed has been improving, she tends to fade after 6 furlongs. There was a time when she did 79 on 9f of turf, but that was long ago. Speed in low 70's, the 5 still being the favorite. Like this better than the 9, though.

4/1, pp2, Vigorous, needs to grab the lead. With a change of ownership just 2 races ago, and then a change after the last race, new stable owner Jollyroger hopes follows the formula used by stable owner Tetonmill in this horse's last race -- 8 or so on turf, and if he jumps out at the lead, he wins. If not, depression sets in. Expect a speed around 75, which makes the 2 my cofavorite with the 5.

5/1, pp 6, Really Bites 'Aus', discovered turf last race out, turned in a 78 at 9f, and came in second, challenging from the second call. This race is almost a sprint compared to what he usually runs. While the race in week 1439 laid him up for a while, he came back strong 14 days ago, a regimen he does well with. The cofavorites join this horse for a troika.

The 5 looks most reliable, and the I have a good feeling about the 6, so if I have to make a pick (which I guess I do if I'm going to make a bet), the 2 follows them in.

WPS 5 $2000 total $6000

PS 6 $2000 total $4000

S 5,6,8 $2000 total $6000

Ex bx 5-6-8 $500 total $3000

Tri bx 5-6-8 $500 total $3000

Total Wagered: $22,000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
5 SIAM PORT $8.20 $4.20 $3.10
8 SECRET PEGASUS $4.50 $3.50
9 NIJINSKY DARBY(GB) $3.20

Exacta: $29.10
Trifecta: $102.90

Also Rans: CHIPS AND SAUCE, &nbspCHAMPIONS CLASSIC, &nbspREALITY BITES'AUS', &nbspVIGOROUS, &nbspSMOKIN BUDA, &nbspCAPTAIN'S PICK CB

Time of race: 1:37

I saw the 5 doing well, and if you read my narrative, I decided against going with the 8, and instead, chose the 2 as the 3rd best horse. However, in transcribing, I inadvertently picked the 8 to complete my exacta and trifecta, and it was good thing I did. For the WPS bets on the 5, I recouped $8200 +$4200 + $3100 and with the 5-8 exacta, I pulled in $7275, which led to a total of $22,775. A modest profit, to be sure, but a profit nonetheless. Just think what I could have picked up if the 6 was in the mix!

************************************

TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1544 :     $48,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1544 :    $22,775

PROFIT/LOSS:                                            -$25,225

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$125,604.50

Results of Week 1544 - Bet $48,000, Received back, $22,775 - a loss of $25,225

Results of Week 1537 - Bet $40,000, Received back, $41,400 - a profit of $1,400

Results of Week 1530 - Bet $8,500, Received back, $6,900 - a loss of $1,600

Results of Week 1523 - Bet $33,000, Received back, $78,300 - a profit of $45,300

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150