Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis For

31 August 2002 - Week 1502

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1502 showed a monster win, but that's three or four winning weeks in a row.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1502.5609

bid race for dkyoung2 Allowance Two milesFast Dirt$9,900
All horses, 5 years old and up, Non-Winners of ONE within the last 6 months

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 7169 DYNATAN CROCODILE reverend J Drunkenmiller 4/1
2 6784 LOUISIANA WENCH vsmdinc2 F Foster 3/1
3 52969 TON ALEX screaming S Fairchild 3/1
4 63247 DECEMBER FOB mrsmiggins R Odomes 4/1
5 34329 V. TON coroner A Quirk 8/1
6 308 ARTFUL QUILL dkyoung2 M Davis 12/1
7 11879 RANCID COUNT exile H O'Connell 11/1
8 9974 THEIR NINERS fats R Wilhite 6/1

Time to take it easy and head overseas for a 16 furlong race in Malaysia. I think the long distance will be telling, and there aren't any horses going off at miniscule odds, so let's get to it.

Two horses share the designation of "favorite", and they're running next to each other at pp 2 and 3.

3/1, pp2, Louisiana Wench, has one of the best jockeys at this track, and is getting 21 days rest. He's been building his endurance with longer races this season, and has been going 11 and 12 furlongs with speeds in the 90's and low 100's. Undoubtedly an impressive horse, and while I expect he's going to be my favorite, let's see what else is out there. Figure him to turn in a 96.

3/1, pp3, Ton Alex, has a lousy jockey, and is getting 14 days rest. The longest this guy's gone is 9 furlongs, and while he's shown a hint that he can close, 16 furlongs is a long way to travel. Even with some impressive speeds in the sprints, something just feels wrong about thinking that this guy is going to win. Figure him for the high 80's, but I think the distance is going to take something out of him.

4/1, pp1, Dynatan Crocodile, has a capable jockey and 21 days rest. And while he came in 2nd in his last long race, the speed was a 71 at 13 furlongs, and he was dropping off. Figure the rest factor will help him, and expect him to clock in with a speed rating in the high 70's.

4/1, pp4, December Fob, has a good jockey, and 42 days rest. While he was turning in speeds in the 90's for sprints, he hasn't gone this far in a long time if ever, and he hasn't finished better than 5th since week 1355. Figure him for a speed in the high 70's.

6/1, pp8, Their Niners, has the best jockey in the race, and 35 days rest. He's gone 14 furlongs, and been in the chase at the end of that one. However, there isn't much else that is suggesting to me that this guy is going to win.

8/1, pp5, V. Ton, fades after 10, and the 12/1, pp6, Artful Quill, fades down the stretch at 16 furlongs, and 11/1, pp7, Rancid Count suffers from the same problem.

When all's said and done, the 2 continues to stand out as the best pick for this race.

WPS 2 $2000 total $6000

S 2 $4000 total $4000

Ex 2-3 $ 500 total $ 500

Total Wagered: $10,500

AFTERMATH:

Post         Horse         Win             Place         Show
6     ARTFUL QUILL $26.60         $9.80         $5.80
2 LOUISIANA WENCH                 $5.30         $3.00
5           V. TON                                                 $5.80

Exacta: $109.60
Trifecta: $1139.70

Time of race: 3:33 3/5

When am I going to learn that when someone bids a race, they probably do so because its a "perfect" race for the horse they've entered? Well, dkyoung2 owns Artful Quill, and guess who came in first? Even so, I made some money on this race, with $5,300 coming back on the place bet, and $9000 on the show bets, for a total recovery of $14,300 for this race. A nice, modest little profit, which I'll gladly accept.

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Race ID:1502.7713

Allowance A mile and one quarter Fast Dirt $11,200
All horses, 4 years old and up

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 38109 DOUG FROM JUSTICE nijinskaa T Washington 21/1
2 15803 VERBID'S TRICK slewpy C Gesek 4/1
3 700 BOUNDED FINGER littlesist G Naber 49/1
4 47182 TEN FOOT prufrock B Spitulski 9/1
5 4393 RETURN ECHO themott N Egger 8/1
6 37447 DUKE LOCK crow P Dubbs 5/1
7 58206 OUR LIGHTNING pureturf C Lynch 27/1
8 46968 Q. PEDAL jahskunk3 O Selby 7/2
9 36836 OUT ON THE DANCE theorchard A Lund 5/1
10 34155 OUR FROWNS ceejaygee L Jenkins 5/1
11 32779 STINKY EL browneyes L Fernandez 18/1

While I feel pretty comfortable that I'm going to make some money on the last race, this race leaves me feeling much more unsettled. At first glance, it looks like the 8 should win this going away. Let's see what we have.

7/2 favorite, pp8, Q. Pedal, has a good jockey and 35 days rest. He's run 9 furlong races, with speeds from 113 to 91. He's getting all the rest he needs, and he can turn in some tremendous speed at 9 furlongs, and 10 is only another furlong, right? He made a heckuva close in week 1355 to get his 113 speed, but since then, he's been in higher class races and hasn't done so well. With him dropping in class, he's definitely in play.

5/1, pp9, Out On The Dance, bears looking at. When he runs 10 furlongs, he turns in 100+ speeds, and something tells me that this guy will be in the mix at the end. Don't be surprised to see him turning in a speed of 104 or so.

While the much of the rest of the field has something to recommend themselves, these two should be in play, and for some reason, I like that 9.

WPS 9 $2000 total $6000

Ex Bx 9-8 $ 500 total $1000

Total Wagered: $7,000

AFTERMATH:

Post         Horse                 Win             Place             Show
9   OUT ON THE DANCE $13.60     $6.40             $4.50
8   Q. PEDAL                                     $4.60             $3.40
10     OUR FROWNS                                                $5.00

Exacta: $52.00
Trifecta: $324.90

Time of race: 2:01 4/5

Cha-Ching!!! Got it right on the nose, for a recovery of $13,600, $6,400, $4,500, and $13,000, for a total recovery on this race of $37,500. I'd like to say it was my great handicapping skill, but frankly, I'm attributing this one to luck too. Happy dance, nevertheless!

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1502 :     $ 17,500

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1502:     $51,800

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $34,300

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$57,604.5

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735

Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300

Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)

Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!

Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!

Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!