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Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis for
20 July 2002 - Week 1460
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Although this past week was a loser due to a bonehead technical flub on my part,, I'm still more than $1,900 up on the season.
I make every attempt to have this page up by late Thursday or early Friday at the latest. My main page will tell you if this has been updated.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
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Race ID:1460.1102
Allowance A mile and one quarter
Firm Turf $12,200
All horses, 3 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO Lifetime
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 67407 DISTURBED CARD stockbad B Girt 11/1
2 69815 RUBY FRONT(IRE) loves3 T Seals 5/1
3 65116 LARRY DONKEY warbeast X Bader 14/1
4 63491 HOLY RIDE(GB) vandy G Johnson 8/1
5 43849 BOLD BAY darrin2 M Grunhard 29/1
6 33527 HAPPY ACCOUNT refuz2luz C Sites 8/1
7 63710 DOUBLING WITH NITE doveran Q Redden 7/1
8 63782 BAILEY PETAL love2 J Elizondo 12/1
9 71119 MILLION WORK aldo44 M Robertson 7/2
10 20069 RED CONQUISTADOR crimeboss1 W Volner 22/1
11 71880 SHEEN CONTENDER daddywins B Clayton 3/1
As my recent habit of focusing my handicapping on races run by stable owners
I've encountered has led to financial ruin, its time to return to my original
method of choosing races, which was to find interesting races at interesting
tracks where I think there's money to be made. Also, for this week at least, my
commentary will be a little sparser, in that I just don't have time this
week. With that in mind, we return to Ohio, where a nice little 9 furlong
turf race goes off.
The 3/1 favorite, pp 11, Sheen Contender, regularly ran in the high 80's, faded in weeks 1362 and 1376 with speeds in the 70's, and hasn't run since. Mediocre jockey, but a nice long rest has probably prospered for this horse. Will he come back only to beat his personal high speed of 88? Could be, but I'm not counting on it. This horse does have the ability to close and more often than not hangs behind until after the 2nd call. Look for him to make a move by third call, and then to challenge in the stretch.
Next is 7/2, pp. 9 Million Work, which turned in an impressive 91 speed last time out, 14 days ago, on a yielding turf track. Graduating from the 70's to 80's until week 1376, when speed dropped to the 70's again, this horse has the ability to win here if he can close with any success. A horse to watch, but too dicey to pick as a winner.
The 5/1, pp2, Ruby Front, has the ability to hit the high 80's for speed, but unless something has changed, watch for this horse to fade in the stretch. Despite an adequate jockey, this horse is overclassed in this race, and shouldn't be a threat at the wire.
The 7/1 pp7, Doubling with Nite, is prospering under new stable owner doveran, after a $13,500 claim in week 1397. Good jockey for this race, and just missed, being overtaken in the stretch in the last race he ran, a 10 furlong turf race with an 85 speed. This horse has the ability to be in contention if the speeds are in the high 80's, and the jockey should be able to get good position. Could be the one.
The 8/1, pp 6, Happy Account, is being run hard overall, and gets 14 days rest and an adequate jockey for this ride. He turned in an 89 on his last outing at 8 furlongs on good turf, and took his first blue ribbon. While he might be able to come back on 2 weeks rest and turn in another high 80's performance, I'm not expecting that.
The other 8/1, pp4, Holy Ride, comes to his third race in his lifetime with a good jockey and a layoff since week 1334 --a total layoff of 126 days, one of the longest I've seen. While its a gamble to expect a horse to give a stellar performance after so long a layoff, I like this horse and think he can do some great things if he gets a chance to run regularly. That doesn't look like it will happen with stable owner Vandy, but this is still a horse to consider.
From here, we go downhill, with horses that might be able to pull off an upset, but its going to occur because some bee stings their horses' butts. In short, the rest of the field just isn't up to must with the horses reviewed so far.
Except for 14/1, pp3, Larry Donkey. This horse only gets 7 days rest, which I don't think will be enough to maintain the higher speed ratings.
This one really is coming down to a crapshoot, but since you gotta make a choice (and walking away might not be that bad of a choice in hindsight), I'm going to play this one. I like the 7 and 4, so that's where my money goes on this one.
WPS 4 $200 total $600
PS 7 $200 total $400
Ex Bx 4-7 $50 total $100
Total Wagered: $1,100
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
9 MILLION WORK
$9.20 $5.50 $3.70
6 HAPPY ACCOUNT
$8.50 $5.60
1 DISTURBED CARD
$7.30
Exacta: $91.50
Trifecta: $890.40
Time of race: 2:05 3/5
"This horse has the ability to win here if he can close with any success", said I about the 9, which won this race with a VERY impressive close. My 4 started out well, but faded halfway through, while the 7 pushed forward at third call and then faded. I should have taken my own advice and walked away from this one, but failing to do so, I ended up spending $1,100 and got nothing back.
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Race ID:1460.2802
Allowance Six and one half furlongs Fast Dirt
$18,200
All horses, 3 years old, Non-Winners of ONE except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 66899 JASON R.(FR) stephany00 N Rhodes 12/1
2 74305 NUMEROUS JETS feldman F Fraser 16/1
3 14787 HORSERUN hotwalker M Holohan 15/1
4 25024 AND TONIC wasatch B Renfroe 7/1
5 12938 STORM REEF nblye M Johnson 7/1
6 49950 SUPER WALLY mingo N Linville 19/1
7 67555 OMAHA GROUND rockrace B Coleman 18/1
8 37041 PULPIT AVENGER vigilante W Leblanc 9/1
9 17871 FORGOTTEN FOE unsung W Mequita 36/1
10 26224 STORMY stretch C Muncie 6/1
11 25932 KID STORM 40storm99 T Griffin 16/1
12 45397 BETTER BRED T shanx S Bahr 2/1
13 35020 SOUTHPAW ROBIN ndirish27 C Brubaker 47/1
14 72789 GREELEY THE GREAT alysalley D Dagriz 11/1
2/1 favorite, pp 12, Better Bred T, has recently been clocking in with speed figures in the high 90's and has a 100+ speed recently. Getting 21 days rest, this horse departs from his regular 14 day schedule, but the extra week may be enough to give him the edge to finish off all competition. While the jockey is only average, this horse is clearly the one to beat.
6/1, pp 10, Stormy, has a personal best of 90, but regularly places in the high 80's. While that might be good enough elsewhere, still not enough to beat the 12.
7/1 horses in pp4 and pp5, both have good jockeys, and both have ability at this 6.5 furlong distance. While the 5 is only on her second lifetime race in this outing, her previous win at 87 was impressive. The 4 can't be forgotten, either, at this distance. Good horses both, but still not enough to overcome the 12.
The rest of the field has the potential to get a spur under the saddle and turn in personal bests, but I'm not seeing it happening. While the 12 isn't a mortal lock, its going to be in the money unless she steps in a gopher hole and comes up lame.
WPS 12 $200 total $600
PS 4 $200 total $400
S 12 $1,000
Ex. Bx 12-4 $50 total $100
Tri 12-4-7 $25 total $25
Tri 12-7-4 $25 total $25
Total Wagered: $2,150
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
5 STORM REEF
$16.40 $8.10 $5.30
1 JASON R.(FR)
$13.00 $8.30
12 BETTER BRED T
$2.90
Exacta: $282.80
Trifecta: $756.00
Time of race: 1:16 2/5
While the 12 didn't finish first, I'm really glad I made the big bet on him to show, which netted me $1,740 on this race. While a loss, at least it isn't as much of a loss as the previous race. The 12 didn't get a good jump, was closing by the 3rd call, when the 5 jumped to the lead and just wouldn't let go. The 4 and 7 turned in lower than expected results, leading to another loss.
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Race ID:1460.1404
Allowance Seven furlongs Fast Dirt $3,300
All horses, 4 years old and up, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $15,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 66024 LASER LIMPING(IRE) lacorrone N Daluiso 10/1
2 58937 SENIOR JED aces1221 B Bennington 31/1
3 41521 JOKER'S MEALS(GB) celebrial F Duffy 2/1
4 59308 RAY'S PRINTS dvt T Kimura 13/1
5 43236 ALPHA BLUEGRASS perks3 B Robinson 19/1
6 51284 SLEEZY GHOST perko6 B Byrne 18/1
7 60679 DADDY ALLEN dvtka1 S Rodenhauser 14/1
8 48027 SQUARE MARC chinner T Fontain 5/2
9 49894 NORTHERN M. ontarget2 G Friar 14/1
10 1545 EASY FRANKENSTEIN jlincoln B Perry 24/1
11 369 BABIFIED CADILLAC samclancy X Saxon 10/1
12 70486 FOGGY JOCK gd3 M Kozlowski 9/1
As you might have noted, I have a horse running in this one, and surprisingly enough, I finally have a favorite running. While my 2/1, pp3 Joker's Meals has a great jockey, he prospers better on a 14 days cycle, it appears, and I have him running with 21 with the hope of building up the desire to succeed. The only viable threat is the 5/2 pp8, Square Marc, which has done well and has turned in some nice speed figures, but he's staying at about the same class while my pp 3 is moving down. Normally, I don't have a problem knocking my own horses when they deserve it, but I'm looking for this newly claimed horse to do some damage in this race.
WPS 3 $500 total $1,500
Ex Bx 3-8 $200 total $400
Total Wagered: $1,900
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
8 SQUARE MARC
$7.60 $3.80 $3.50
11 BABIFIED CADILLAC
$10.40 $8.10
3 JOKER'S MEALS(GB)
$2.70
Exacta: $67.20
Trifecta: $183.30
Time of race: 1:25 1/5
While my main pick, pp3 finished 3rd, that was disappointing when all was said and done. I did make $675 back on this race, for a total return today of $2,415, but the loss of the cash isn't what's so disappointing. When I signed up for the race, Joker's Meals had a CPU value of about $,7,000. Now, his CPU is about $50,000, which will close out a number of races for him. Add that to the fact that I was hoping for a little spare cash from finishing higher, and combine that with the fact that the first three horses across the wire were separated by 1/2 length, and you can understand my disappointment here. But for a step or two, I would have been raking in the dough here.
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1460 : $ 5,150
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1460: $2,415
PROFIT/LOSS:
-$2,735
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
-$3,102.50
Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,7350
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
GRAPH OF BETTING PROGRESS TO DATE
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