Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis For
6 July 2002 - Week 1446
Overview
I'll try to provide analysis as to why I think my picks will do well, and give you suggestions. Expect to see my thoughts for the coming week posted by sometime Thursday night to Friday night or earlier.
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Although this past week was a loser, I'm still more than $2,800 up on the season.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
Tips for Week 1446:
Special tip of the week :
Forest Fire II in race 0602. (Not even
close) A little birdie told me this was a horse to watch
for this week.... Another birdie tells me that one of my horses, the 17/1 Tag
Liner in race 3211 may be worth some money (Missed
3rd by a few lengths) ...
Minnesota, Race ID 1446.4710
Starter Allowance ($7,500) Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Six furlongs on the Fast Dirt Course, Purse : $6,200
While this race doesn't present spectacular betting odds, Minnesota has to be cooler than where I'm at, so we'll take a trip up north.
Start with the 8/5 favorite, pp 1 Without Approval, who is getting an optimal 21 days rest, has the best jockey in the race, and has been running in the low '80s. Watch for this horse to jump out early, and never look back. This IS the horse to beat in this race. Expect a speed in the low to high 80's. BTW, this one is from fabman's farms -- he has a new web page that is something any newbie ought to look at.
5/2 pp 2, Tough Titan has the next best jockey in the race, and just posted a speed rating of 89 only 14 days ago. The 14 day cycle doesn't seem to favor this horse, which seems to lose ground after 5.5 furlongs. If contending for the lead, expect this horse to be in it up until the end, where the 1 will pull away. If in a crowd, watch for this horse to make a push at the halfway mark. Nice horse, just don't think she can overpower the 1.
3/1 pp3, Classy Dixie, has an adequate jockey on board, and came in with a speed rating of 86 just 14 days ago. You want to see a workhorse, well here she is. Look at how little rest she requires, and her ability to maintain speed. Attribute that to stable owner Tigger making the change in training strategy after claiming her. She's jumped in speed each of the last three times she's been out and had 14 days rest. The question is whether she'll be able to repeat an 86 or better. Look for her to do well as she closes down as soon as she can get to daylight, but I'm still putting my faith in the 1.
7/2 pp6, Shoo Is It True, has a barely adequate jockey, but has been steadily improving over the season. Still, with a personal best of only 82 in the recent past, don't look for her to be a big factor. Expect her to try to jump out at the start, which could lead to three horses pushing the front of the pack.
10/1 pp5, T Bald Stable, has an adequate jockey, and has a new owner, rokeby. Probably taken in auction, or a riverboat poker game perhaps, this horse comes off a 56 day layoff, and is running in a 6 furlong race instead of her more friendly mile races. While her highest speed rating so far is a 78, who knows how the layoff will affect her. Could be a surprise in the making, but I'm not expecting it.
Last is 19/1 pp4, Stark Beauty, who comes today with the worst jockey in the race and speed ratings only on the verge of 70. Claimed in week 1432 by stable owner verbasle, this horse is racing above her class, but that may be good for her. Still, don't expect a War Emblem here.
With the odds being relatively low, and the chance of the 1, 3, or possibly 5 ending up in the driver's seat, this isn't going to be a big money race. Still, there are some pickin's here.
WPS 1 200 total $600
PS 1 500 total $1000
PS 3 500 total $1000
EX Box 1-3-5 20 total $120
Tri Box 1-3-5 20 total $120
Total Wagered: $2,840
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
3 CLASSY DIXIE
$8.10 $4.60 $2.80
6 SHOO IS IT TRUE
$5.10 $3.40
1 WITHOUT APPROVAL
$2.30
Exacta: $38.20
Trifecta: $64.30
Time of race: 1:11 2/5
While the 6 was somewhat of a surprise to me, the 3 and 1 were in play, and netted some nice change for this race. I picked up $805 for bets on the 1, $1150 for the place bet on the 3, $700 for show, but nothing on the trifecta or exacta. Total returned was $2,655, for a small loss of $185. So, I lost 6% of what I bet here. Big deal. I'll make it up on the next one.
*****************************************
Kentucky, Race ID 1446.0302
Allowance Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Restricted to player created horses, One mile on the Fast Dirt Course, Purse : $27,700
A few weeks ago, I misunderstimated stable owner novanora's horse, Asteroid, and it cost me dearly. Time to follow up and see how Asteroid is doing her next outing.
9/5 favorite, pp4, Probable Cause, doesn't have the worse jockey, but pretty close to it, with a winning percentage of only 4%. This horse gets the nod in the books due to her recent speed figures of 98 and 96, with an 89 thrown in between. This horse does better in the closing role, although she's shown she can contend when running from gate to wire. Will she repeat with a speed in the high 90's this week, and come thundering down the stretch to grab victory on 35 days rest? Can't rule it out, and the rest suggests she will, but will the jockey be able to work her down the stretch? Let's see what else is here before placing our bets.
2/1 pp2, Dipper, has the best jockey in this race, turned in 91, 79, and 97 for the last three races, and goes off on 28 days rest. Expect the jockey to make the difference and drive her ahead of the pack early to place her in contention. 28 days rest showed a nice jump last time for this horse, so look for her in the low 90's.
Next is 4/1, pp7 Asteroid, who surprised me before. Last three speed ratings were 97, 87, and 73, and she's coming off a 35 day layoff. Once again running in a mile race, it looks like stable owner novanora is hoping he become acclimatized to the longer distance. While race doubles the class she's used to, if she turns out a rating in the high 90's, she could pull it off.
7/1, pp8 Shadeed's Shadow, has an adequate jockey, but only 21 days rest. Another horse who's jumping up in class, but one who has only demonstrated speed in the mid 80's to date. Look for this horse to make a closing push, but don't think she'll finish first across the wire.
8/1 pp1, Nurse Nureyev, has a miserable jockey, and has only gone off in the mid 80's. look for her to make a push shortly after 3rd call, but to not have enough in her to make it worthwhile.
Its worth noting that 27/1 pp5, Dyna Princess, hasn't raced before, and therefore, is a complete mystery.
Looking at the big picture, I expect a duel between the 2 and 4, with the 7 being in play. I'll give the nod to the 2, just due to the jockey, but the 4 is unquestionably a strong horse.
WPS 2 $100 total $300
Tri Box 2-4-7 $100 total $600
Total wagered: $900
AFTERMATH
Post Horse
Win Place Show
7 ASTEROID
$10.20 $4.90 $3.70
2 DIPPER
$3.70 $2.90
4 PROBABLE CAUSE(IRE)
$2.10
Exacta: $36.00
Trifecta: $62.50
Time of race: 1:35 3/5
Glad I stopped by to handicap this one! For my bets on the 2, I made $185 for place and $145 for show, and $1,800 on the $3,125 on the trifecta, for a total return of $3,455, and a profit on this race of $2,555. While the 7's ability overpowered the better quality of the 2's jockey, it all worked out for the best. So far, on the day, I'm up $2,370! Now, its off to Colorado, where my money making race of the day lies.
**********************************
Colorado, Race ID 1446.7112
Claiming ($10,000) All horses, 2 years old, One mile on the Yielding Turf Course, Purse : $8,800
Only 4 horses racing in this one, but looks to be an upset.
The 4/5 favorite, pp3 Fly to the Poles, gets 21 days rest, has the hottest jockey in the race. Even with those advantages, this horse hasn't gone better than 6 furlongs, and hasn't turned in a 50 speed rating in a while. This horse shows no signs of being a closer, but instead, looks to fade by the 6 furlong mark if he hasn't already.
The 2/1, pp1, Out of Ally, clocks in at the 40's, and shows some skill as a closer. Not my pic, though.
The 3/1 pp2, Zebra Shakers, is my money horse for today. While the odds aren't great, and the jockey isn't the best either, this horse runs well with on a week's rest, and clocks in at the high 40's to low 50's when she's running well. With the yielding turf of today, don't expect a record setter, but expect this horse to be able to do all she needs to.
Finally, we have the 6/1 pp4, Galveston Oil, owned by one of my sister's stables. After a long layoff, she was back 21 days ago, and looks to improve here. Only problem is with an average speed in the mid to high 30's, and with the problem of never having run this distance, don't look for this horse to be in the top two. This horse's salvation might just be her ability to improve on off track.
With a plethora of low odds horses, and given my favoring the 3, there are only a few bets which make any sense.
WPS 3 $1000 total $3000
S 4 $100 total $100
Total Wagered: $3,100
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
2 ZEBRA SHARK(FR) $8.70 $4.40 $2.10
1 OUT OF ALY
$3.20 $2.10
3 FLY TO THE POLES
$2.10
Exacta: $26.90
Trifecta: $26.20
Time of race: 1:40 4/5
A typo above cost me 6 grand, and if it cost you, I apologize. Beleive me, I'm doing more than enough of beating up on myself, since I post my web page, and then make my bets by referring to it. You'll note that the tip is to bet the 3 to win place and show. But, in the analysis, I panned the pp3, while championing the 3/1 odds horse, even going so far as to say it was my money making horse. Unfortunately, the 3/1 horse had a post position of 2, but the 3/1 stuck in my mind. I wasn't even expecting the 3 to finish in the top 3 of a 4 horse field.. If I didn't make the typo, I'd have seen a return of $7,600. Instead, I only get the show bet, $1,050, for a loss on this race of $2,050, but still with a profit of $320 for the day (which should have been $7,829, arggghhh!).
*******************************
West Virginia, Race ID 1446.1302
Allowance All horses, 3 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter, Six furlongs on the Fast Dirt Course, Purse : $7,900
This race caught my eye, due to the fact that the favorite was going off at 3/1, and the next closest horses were going off at 5/1. Thus, there is an opportunity to make money, if only I can find the golden horse which will cross the wire first. (Duh!)
The 3/1 favorite, pp 11, Phat Yodeler, is an impressive horse, getting 28 days rest, and which has been recently putting up 104 speed ratings in stakes races. He's shown that he can win at this class, clocking in at 108 for a $13,200 allowance in week 1348. With a competent jockey, enough rest, moving down in class, and a clear ability to run this distance, this horse is the deserved favorite. Watch for him to make a move after the third call. The only question is whether anyone can challenge him.
5/1 pp4, R. Ship, has a lesser jockey, is getting only 14 days rest after a long layoff before his previous race, and while he shows quality, his recent speed numbers hover just under 100. Also a closer, this is a good horse, but I don't expect him to overtake the 11 coming down the stretch.
Our other 5/1, pp8 Senior Forest, has a solid jockey on for the ride, and has 28 days rest. This horse is yet another closer (how crowded is that stretch going to be?), and came in second in his last race, which was at this class level. On any other given day, this horse should do well with its crushing close after the third call, but with the 11 just being a smidge better, I still don't see this one being first across the line. Should be a heck of a duel with the 4, though, since these horses match up very closely. Give this horse the edge for second, due to the jockey.
8/1 pp5, Kiri's Scale, has a very mediocre jockey, and is getting 21 days rest. Yes, this horse is another closer, and while he turned in a 100 speed rating at a 50,000 claimer in week 1341, he took off from week 1369 to week 1425, and returned with an 85 speed rating. While I expect some improvement from that based upon how the competition will push him, I don't expect this horse to be able to pull off the upset.
10/1 pp6, Private Lever, has an adequate jockey and 28 days rest. While the 5th place spot in his last race on turf looks passingly good, this horse appears to favor the dirt. And, yes, this is another closer. With speed ratings in mid 80's for the last two races, this horse could shoot into the mid 90's, where he previously raced, but that still won't be enough.
The 12/1 pp9 and 10, aren't that impressive, but expect the 9 to try to jump to the lead early on, if his miserable jockey can find his way out of the gate. The 14/1 pp 14 once had the glory of a 100+ speed rating, but hasn't been very exciting lately, and that shouldn't change, even with a good jockey on board. Yes, another closer.
15/1, pp1, Chocolate Fortress, deserves some attention, and is coming off 42 days rest. The longer rest period proved fruitful for his last race, where his speed jumped from 80 to 101 in a 16,600 allowance race. This should be the horse helping to set the pace early on. I'd be happier if the jockey was a little better than a 6% winning rate, but this horse looks primed to be able to match speed with any other horse in this race, and certainly cannot be ruled out.
The other 15/1, pp3, Fat Free Manta, isn't as impressive. Lousy jockey, 21 days rest, speed in the low 90's, all combine to suggest this horse won't be last, be he sure won't finish first unless Zeus throws thunderbolts at the rest of the field.
18/1, pp12, Porously Paint, is a horse I wouldn't expect to be threatening, but several factors combine to make me look twice. Although the jockey is meager (7% win rate), and with only 21 days rest, this horse won a $12,600 allowance race with a 95 speed by blasting into first place and never looking back last time out. While stable owner 1manshow only has 21 races under his belt, 4 of those were wins, and two of those wins came from this horse which also finished 3rd twice. While last race's 95 speed rating looks like a personal best for this horse, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in play from the beginning. The question will be whether the closers can overcome him.
The other two longshots don't look like they have nearly enough speed to make it work for them, so its time to figure out how to bet this race.
As the race breaks, look for the 12, 9, and 1 to jump out at the beginning, with the edge to the 12 and then 1 to be in the lead through the first three calls. Expect a pace in the low to mid 90's for the first half of the race, and look for things to pick up at the end as the closers try to make their move. Expect the 11 to be able to make the move down the stretch, and the 8 should be there as well, dueling with the 11. As it gets near the wire, I'm going to give the edge to the 11, but don't be surprised if the 8, 12, or 1 are right at the finish with him. My unconventional wisdom suggests it will be the 11, 8, and 12. Sugar cubes for you guys if you finish in this order... really..
PS 11 $300 total $600
S 8 $300 total $300
S 12 $300 total $300
Ex Bx 11-8-12-1 $50 total $600
Tri 11-8-12 $50 total $50
Total Wagered: $1,850
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
4 R. SHIP
$12.00 $6.30 $4.90
14 HIS BOYS
$13.90 $8.90
11 PHAT YODELER(IRE)
$4.10
Exacta: $230.30
Trifecta: $703.40
Time of race: 1:09 4/5
Yes, I championed the 8, 12, and 1 like they were heralded by divine angels. Mmmmm.... that shoe leather's pretty tasty! The 8 finished in sixth place, and the others were in double digits. The show bet on the 11 netted me $615, for a loss here of $1,235, which translates to loss on the day of $915 (which should actually have been a profit of $6,594, dammit!).
*******************************
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1446 : $8,690.00
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1446: $7,775.00
PROFIT/LOSS -$915
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE: +$1,932.50
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
Comments, advice and non spam welcomed at :