Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis for
13 July 2002 - Week 1453
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Although this past week was a loser due to a bonehead technical flub on my part,, I'm still more than $1,900 up on the season.
I make every attempt to have this page up by late Thursday or early Friday at the latest. My main page will tell you if this has been updated.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
Race ID:1453.5209
Allowance A mile and one sixteenth Firm Turf $26,000 Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Despite the recent flooding in Texas, the turf is firm for this mid-range
allowance race. While this race doesn't present tremendous odds from first
glance, there is a potential gem for the plucking in the 8
We start with the 5/2 favorite, pp 4, Al's Darling, a long time turf horse who has an adequate jockey for the ride. While this horse has worked from a 21 day rest since week 1355, she now goes off with only 14 days rest. While she was able to maintain speed or improve with a 14 day rest previously, one has to wonder whether she's grown accustomed to a longer rest. Still, with recent speed figures just over 100, she's obviously a threat. This horse prospers by jumping out and never looking back, but she has a vulnerability in that she starts to fade around 8 furlongs. Expect her to jump out and set a fast pace, such that only a closer with a nice kick is going to be able to catch her. Figure that since she has a competent jockey, she should be able to jump out early, and poise herself for a win.
3/1, pp7 Mango Code has a much lesser jockey, is only getting 7 days rest, and has these odds based upon her performances earlier in the season (i.e. week 1376). While she has blasted a 108 speed rating when fully cocked, her recent performances have been disappointing. She raced last week after a 42 day rest, and doesn't look like she's fully come back. Maybe stable owner Unionjack2 knows something I don't, but I'm doubtful this horse will be in the top three unless she jumps out at the start. Even if that happens, I don't think she'll have the oomph to win this one. While she was racing stakes races recently, her jump down in class last week didn't seem to help, and I don't think it will this week, either.
7/2, pp6 Bright Silver has a good jockey, and she's getting 28 days rest from her last race, which came after an 84 day layoff. She returned with a speed of 100, and the 28 day rest period seems to do her well. While familiar with this distance, she usually fights her way from the middle of the pack, making her move by the third call. Look for this horse to be in play, and to be a real threat to the pp4.
9/2 pp5, Rack Sharon, is getting 35 days rest, but has a miserable jockey. While she won her last race, at about the same class, with a 97 speed rating, she's a closer, and will have to fight through from the middle to back of the pack to take a win. In this race, she's probably going to have to set a personal best in order to be in the top three, and while she may eke out a show, and with the 4 and 6 looking stronger, I'm not expecting her to be able to win.
6/1, pp2 Woody's Mars, has an adequate jockey, and is also getting 35 days rest. I like the stable owner's name (Mahler -- great symphonies), and I like the horse, but the speed figures just don't suggest she'll break 100. She might be close, and might even put in a personal best with the extra rest, but I don't see her overcoming the 4 or 6 when all's said and done.
9/1, pp8, Again with Sundial, intrigues me greatly with the best jockey in the race and 21 days rest. THe longer odds here are probably due to a poor performance in week 1306, which resulted in a layoff until week 1390, which also yielded a low speed rating, but everything else suggest this horse is primed to go. She's turned in a 101 speed rating in her last race on 14 days rest, and has shown that she can be a contender at this distance. As with the favorite pp4, this horse needs to jump out at the beginning, and then doesn't let up, so watch for this horse to duel with the 4, thus pushing the speed envelope early on. If the 4 and this horse have enough left for the stretch, nobody will be able to touch them. If not, look for the 6 to take advantage. Expect this horse in the top 3 finishers.
As an aside, the stable owner for the 8, Snowstorm, recently bought one of my horses, Fainting Fob at auction. He was hurt when she bought him, and he probably has another 56 days until he's in running condition, but he served me well in getting to my 20 race mark and I wish snowstorm the very best of luck with him.
The pp3, and pp1 don't show any promise of being in play, and while the pp9 may be up and coming and steadily improving, the 9 is a closer that will have too little, too late.
As the gates open, look for the 4 and 8 to try to jump ahead, and set a pace to stay ahead of the rest of the field. By the third call, several horse will be making their move on the leaders, the 5, 6, and 7 will be trying to push ahead. The 6 will have the best shot, while I think the 7 will get caught in traffic, and the 5 will be struggling to give too little too late. While the 4 is the conventional wisdom to win, I'm going to put some faith in the 8, expect the 4 to finish second, and believe that the 6 will come in third.
WPS 200 8 total $600
PS 200 4 total $400
Ex Bx 50 8-4-6 total $300
Tri BX 20 8-4-6 total $120
Total wagered: $1,420
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
3 QUEEN NIJINSKY
$32.00 $12.00 $8.00
2 WOODY'S MARS
$8.10 $4.60
6 BRIGHT SILVER
$3.20
Exacta: $239.90
Trifecta: $1131.50
Time of race: 1:43 3/5
I must be handicapping in the bizzaro world! The horses I chose opened nicely, jumped into contention, and then, right about 1 mile, they must have decided it was time for cappucino or something. The 8 and 4 weren't even close to the top three, although the 6 did finish third. And take a look at Queen Nijinsky! I sure didn't see anything that indicated she had a chance, much less being able to run from wire to wire. Well, at least no worries about the IRS window with this race. Total loss....(sigh).
Return on bet : $0.00, return on race: -$1,420
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Race ID:1453.4006
Allowance Six and one half furlongs Sloppy Dirt $12,200
Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Non-Winners of TWO except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter
While Texas had excellent racing conditions, North Carolina is bogged down with
a sloppy track and a number of horses which haven't had much experience with the
slop. Usually, the oddsmakers seem to neglect this aspect as well, which
provides some opportunities in this race.
Start with the 3/1 favorite, pp10, Willinellie, gets 42 days rest, has good jockey, and embarks on the 4th race of her career. She posted a 95 speed rating last time out, and started to drop behind by the third call. Still, with an adequate jockey, she should be able to jump ahead early, and that may make all the difference in the slop. This horse has some potential for the future, even if she can't hold on at 6.5 furlongs of slop.
Next is 9/2, pp5, Arctic Bean, with a good jockey and 14 days rest. While this horse is dropping way down in class, and while this horse has posted a speed of 93 a while back, the 14 day cycle doesn't seem to have been helping her lately, and I'd feel more comfortable is she had 21 or even better, 28 days rest. The jockey will make a difference in helping to drive her along in lousy conditions, but without the extra rest, I don't expect this closer to be the winner.
5/1, pp4 Goldtop has a mediocre jockey, and is only getting 7 days rest. Throw into the mix that this horse is moving up in class, and shows a significant drop off after 6 furlongs, and I don't expect her to be in contention. She'll try to duel with the 10, but should become nothing more than an obstacle for the closers down the stretch.
The other 5/1, pp6, Saint Prospector, also has a mediocre/lower end jockey, and is getting 14 days rest, which seems to produce speeds in the 80's for her. This horse has succeeded by jumping and hold the lead, but lately, she has been playing a closer's game. As this race is roughly in the classes she's been racing, don't expect that to be too big of a factor. Instead, expect that the jockey won't be able to get her to the lead of the pack in time to make that push, and watch for her to try to make her move coming down the stretch. With the mud flying everywhere, and this horse trying to close, I don't see it happening for the Saint -- a better jockey would have helped.
9/1, pp9, Pot Ate Oh Chip, has a solid jockey and 21 days rest, and has recently been producing speed ratings in the high 80's with 3 weeks rest. While a maiden until week 1411, this horse has stuck by her philosophy of jumping out ahead, and her races of the past few months seemed to have developed the ability to succeed at this distance. Notice that this horse has also done well in sloppy conditions (week 1236) and turned in an 81 in the slop. Expect this horse to make a move from the beginning, challenging the 10 from wire to wire.
Of the remaining horses, the only one which caught my eye was 13/1, pp 7, My Deer Watson, who has a lousy jockey and only 14 days rest, but which impressed by winning her last race in sloppy conditions over 6 furlongs. She usually contends for the first half of the race, and has traditionally faded by the third call, but in her last race, she made her move to the lead at the third call, and ended up in first. I wouldn't write this horse off, and suspect that she may be in play when the finish line comes up.
Look for the 9 and 10 to jump out at the start, with the 7 close behind. By the third call, look for the 5 and 6 to be making their move, but as they come down the stretch, these horse will be getting a faceful of mud, which I think will be the determining factor against them. While the 10 is strong, I like the 9 to win, and look for the 7 to surprise folks with a place.
WPS 9 $200 total $600
S 7 $200 total $200
Ex Bx 9-10-7 $50 total $300
Total Wagered: $1,100
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
6 SAINT PROSPECTOR
$13.20 $6.80
$4.60
4 GOLDTOP
$6.90 $4.80
7 MY DEER WATSON(GB)
$7.80
Exacta: $101.40
Trifecta: $890.90
Time of race: 1:17
At least I had a bet to show on the 7, for a return of $780, and a loss on this race of $320, totaling for a loss on the day, so far, at -$1,740 . The 9 broke nicely, did well until the 3rd call, and then faded into obscurity, taking my wallet with it. While the 5 wasn't able to make a break at the third call, the 6 did, and ran away with the show. I'm starting to think that my handicapping abilities would be better served at nickel slots, since I wouldn't lose as much!
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Race ID:1453.1311
Allowance Seven furlongs Fast Dirt $4,400
All horses, 3 years old and up, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $65,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 58753 ROSE GARTH celebrial S Tate 14/1
2 19187 PACIFIC HEIGHTS vetboy N Fine 9/1
3 53184 OUR STEW lespaul E Swale 1/5
4 3177 LATE RAISE jonbenet P Coleman 14/1
5 8616 PLAY WITH DANGER tulloch3 S Kelly 13/1
6 47761 WAXED PUB victoryrun Z Watters 11/1
7 9297 A.P. SAL pilate L Turnbull 12/1
While West Virginia doesn't produce the high grades stakes races some prefer, I find it to be an excellent track for the handicapper, due to opportunities like the ones offered in this race. The favorite is going off at 1/5, and the next closest horse is 9/1 followed by everyone else in the mid teens. Even if you give the favorite his due, there should be some nice place and show bets to be made, and the trifecta payoffs could be substantial.
In the interests of fairness, I should note that the pp1, Rose Garth, is a horse I recently picked up at auction, and this is his first race for me. Take it for what it's worth.
1/5 favorite, pp3, Our Stew, has a good jockey, and 28 days of rest. While the form doesn't tell us whether this horse is moving up or down in class, chances are that he's moving down to this $4,400 allowance race. This horse had a long layoff after week 1355, when he last clocked in at the low 90's, and it looks as if stable owner Lespaul (guitar afficianado, perhaps...) is treating this horse right. The only downside is that this horse seems to fade after 6 or 7 furlongs. With the good jockey, expect him to jump for the lead early on and then hope to hang on. As none of the other horses have the 3's speed ability, its his race to win or lose.
9/1, pp2, Pacific Heights has a mediocre jockey, and is running on 21 days rest after an impressive 83 speed rating last time out. That number could be an aberration, but it is worth noting that the last race was the first time this horse has jumped to the head of the pack, and that might have made the difference. With a better jockey, I'd put more faith in this guy, but without, I'm expecting a speed of the mid to high 70's.
11/1, pp6, Waxed Pub, has the second best jockey at the track, but has a sporadic showing in recent races, ranging in speed from the high 70's to the mid 50's. Going off with 21 days rest doesn't seem to be helpful, as opposed to 28 days. Still, as stable owner Victoryrun only claimed her in week 1418, that might not be apparent to the new owner. While coming down slightly in class gives a boost, along with the jockey, the lack of rest could be telling for this horse, which has traditionally faded after 6 furlongs or so. He'll jump to the beginning if he can, but look for him to fade by the stretch.
12/1, pp 7, AP. Sal, has an abysmal jockey, which offsets any benefit of a 49 day rest. Claimed by stable owner Pilate in week 1306, this horse has ranged from the 80's to the 30's in speed. Which one will show up today? Well, as this horse seems to prefer closing, and there will definitely be some front runners, and with a lousy jockey, I'm counting the 7 out for this one.
13/1, pp5, Play with Danger has a fair jockey, and is getting 14 days rest. The speed ratings just aren't there, and there isn't anything to suggest this horse will be in play when all is said and done.
14/1 pp1, Rose Garth, has the best jockey in this race, and is enjoying a 28 day rest. As he's my horse, I can tell you that his condition is sharp, and I'm counting on his last outing, with a speed of 53, to be an aberration due to his one an only turf race. Expect him to jump out early, relinquish position for the second and third calls, and then try to push ahead at the end. While straight handicapping doesn't put him in a leadership position, especially since his previous races have lacked class, I have a feeling he'll be in play and finish at least 4th. But, from a pure handicapping point of view, he's not going to win this one.
The other 14/1 is pp4, Late Raise, has a mediocre jockey and 21 days rest, and hasn't seen the right side of 70 since he won his maiden in week 1362. I don't see this race changing anything.
At the start, look for the 1, 2, 3, and 6 to jump out, with the 4, 5, and 7 holding back. By the third call, look for the 2 and 3 to be battling it out, with the 1 and 6 falling back a bit. Coming down the stretch, look for the 2 and 3 to still be holding the lead, with the 1 and 6 making their push. As the 2 and 3 will be setting the pace, and dueling for the lead, expect this race to be settled with speeds in the high 70's, low 80's. Look for the favorite, 3 to cross the line first, but expect a possible photo between the 1 and 2 for place and show.
PS 1 $200 total $400
Ex 3-1 $50 total $50
EX 3-2 $50 total $50
Ex 1-3 $20 total $20
Tri 3-1-2 $20 total $20
Tri 3-2-1 $20 total $20
Total Wagered: $560
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
7 A.P. SAL
$26.20 $6.30 $2.30
3 OUR STEW
$2.10 $2.10
4 LATE RAISE
$2.90
Exacta: $33.10
Trifecta: $219.40
Time of race: 1:24 1/5
I thought my horse, Rose Garth, could do it here. I really did. In play until the third call, he was looking good, and then, depression set in. If you have a moment, you have to watch this race -- the 7, A.P. Sal, goes to dead last, languishes there, and then someone stuffs a rocket up his butt and lights it. The damned horse was moving at hyperspeed, I tell you!. Another total loss here, with $0.00 returned for this race, and my kitty being down $2,300 for the day.
At least there's next week. Maybe I should consider enlisting in the army before that happens!
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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1453 : $3,080
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1453: $780
PROFIT/LOSS:
-$2,300
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
-$367.50
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
New Feature- Graph of bets, returns, and gross winnings
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