Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis For

24 August 2002 - Week 1495

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1495 showed a modest win, but that's two winning weeks in a row.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1495.1615

Owner Restricted Allowance Seven furlongs Fast Dirt $50,000
All horses, 3 years old and up -- RESTRICTED TO PARTICULAR OWNERS

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 69818 PRINCE LOYAL canusa P Shannon 7/1
2 39360 COMMANDER DENNY kevsfarms S Saxon 12/1
3 67404 CREASE SMUGGLING almosta P Wolff 11/1
4 69556 LORD'S BUNGEE shag2 I McKellar 12/1
5 2828 DYNASTY SLEW northern P Jefferson 25/1
6 7604 KNOWN GATOR almosta B Land 10/1
7 79196 ARCTIC STINK slewme G Warren 19/1
8 59733 VESSELS PAPOOSE arcticboy C Tuten 8/1
9 34224 INCONSPICUOUS infnityhrt M Houston 44/1
10 59754 JO JO WHITE almstarnch X Stover 12/1
11 61746 SENOR PETROL irishfarms L Wilson 9/1
12 37210 SCUBA THRILL rikkisbarn Q Simien 20/1
13 65547 FOXY FILTER shagadel4 W Bankston 5/1
14 68096 CHIEF APEX petersd K Baynes 45/1
15 47083 FEROCIOUS FLETCH(GB) northern M Van Dyne 21/1
16 46751 BLUE RULE shagadel4 L Olson 54/1
17 61172 GREEDY CAMCORDER irishgal X Mlot 40/1
18 63427 FUSSY CHRISTMAS calltopost B Brock 11/1
19 30254 HOOSIER BEAUTY irishgal N Sacca 33/1

I'm sure its no secret that a number of the folks play this game also play with another online game, HR101. This race was restricted to folks who have stables in both games, including my sister, her fiance, and Shag. The word from my sister is that the various stable owners culled their best for this race, so it should be fun to watch, and it looks like it offers some great betting possibilities, especially with 19 horses running. Yep, 19.

As this race is in Washington, you might also want to check out the designated Washington tip sheet, which can be found at http://members.rogers.com/kenneth-murray/waracing/watipsters.htm . They do a nice job with their tips, and its worthwhile to listen to them and learn.

Alright... down to the race.

The favorite is the 5/1, pp13, Foxy Filter, Lousy jockey, but 35 days rest, and this horse has been consistently improving his speed with each race, last checking in with a 103 at 8 furlongs. Based on past performance, this horse's best distance is 7 on dirt, and except for the jockey, I have to believe this horse is poised to jump out at the start and never look back. Expect a speed of 107 or so.

Next comes the 7/1, pp1, Prince Loyal, which has an even more miserable jockey and 28 days rest. While this horse has turned in a 102 at this distance, he hasn't fared as well since then. Its worth noting that he hasn't jumped out to the lead since then either. While this horse will be in play, I don't expect him to break from the pack, which is what he would need for a realistic shot at winning. Speed of 94 or so.

8/1, pp8 Vessels Papoose, has miserable jockey's equally miserable brother onboard, and 14 days rest. He hasn't run further than 6.5, and hasn't breached the mid 90's since week 1362. As another horse that needs to close to win expect him to get caught in traffic and turn in perhaps a 91 or so.

9/1, pp11, Senor Petrol is owned by my sister's stable, has an adequate jockey and 14 days rest. He's been racing on 21 days rest, and dropped in speed for his last race, so I'm surprised that he's only getting 14 days rest. Despite the jockey, this horse fades right after 6 furlongs, so even with a history of high 90's, low 100's, I don't expect this guy to win. He'll try to break away early, and will probably help drive the 13, but expect him to fade down the stretch. Speed of about 92.

10/1, pp6, Known Gator, has an abysmal jockey, but 35 days rest. This is another horse which has been steadily improving, turning in 100+ speeds for his last two races, and improving his endurance. Don't count this guy out. I'm thinking a speed of 103 isn't unreasonable if he can jump out. If he has to work through traffic, he'll suffer, but I'm figuring this guy to be dueling with the 11 and 13. Speed of 103.

Going down the odds, the next horse which bears watching is the 12/1, pp4, Lord's Bungee. Lousy jockey, 21 days rest, but if he jumps to the front of the pack, he can be in play. He clocked a 101 to win a nice allowance a few weeks back, and while I'd be happier if he had 28 days rest, I think he might clock in somewhere in the 90's. Figure some problem down the stretch, especially with a field this large, and I look for a speed of about 93.

19/1, pp7 Arctic Stink, has a suitable jockey and 14 days rest. While he posted a 100 in his last race at 6.5 furlongs, he hasn't raced this far before, and I don't expect this 3 yr old filly to prosper on only 14 days. Still, she likes to jump out at the start, so look for her to come in about 94 or so.

My nod goes to the 13 and the 6. While neither has a great jockey, which will be needed to get a good jump at the beginning of this race, these are strong horses. Nod goes to the 13

WPS 13 $2000 total $6000

PS 6 $2000 total $4000

Ex. Box 13-6 $500 total $1000

Total Wagered on this race: $11,000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
13 FOXY FILTER $13.90 $8.50 $4.90
19 HOOSIER BEAUTY $31.20 $16.30
3 CREASE SMUGGLING $8.00

Exacta: $449.00
Trifecta: $6732.60

Time of race: 1:22 2/5

As I had hoped for, the 13 won this race. The 6, however, didn't get a jump, suffered from blockage, and didn't finish in money. Still, this one netted me $13,900 for a win bet, $8,500 for a place bet, and $4,900 for the show bet, for a total of $27,300 on this race. That's a profit of $17,300 on this race, which ain't bad.

Hoosier Beauty, one of my sister's horses, surprisingly came in 2nd, and Crease Smuggling closed nicely to take a 3rd.

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Race ID:1495.5101

Allowance Six furlongs Fast Dirt $59,000
All horses, 3 years old, Non-Winners of FOUR except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 6011 HOLE 'AUS' ozstable M Hull 4/1
2 43211 THEIR RAPIDS grade1win G Ayso 10/1
3 26350 ARCHON THEO BELL browneyes H Eisen 22/1
4 29276 MIGHTY MELBOURNE burn1down R Sailor 6/1
5 34135 SPIKE hambeau G Mantle 7/1
6 13053 PADRE REJECTING holychow G Oldham 31/1
7 58468 OPPSDIDITAGAIN(IRE) yuga D Lakencher 16/1
8 5432 TRUE PROSPECTOR buttons Q Cassell 12/1
9 8201 DESTINY'S DREAM funster H Cain 8/5
10 72223 TWO STEP dapsal A Witter 7/1

At first glance, it looks like the 8/5, pp9, Destiny's Dream should win this race hoofs down. With a good jockey, and 14 days rest, this horse is primed to once again turn in a race in the high 90's or low 100's, especially since she's racing at a lesser distance than usual. No doubt, its a strong horse, and I figure that she should be able to turn in a 95 without any trouble.

But, take a look at the 7/1, pp5, Spike. His last two races were at increasing distance, and he won them both. He's getting 35 days rest, and should turn in a 95, except for the miserabnle jockey syndrome he's suffering from. Still, stable owner Hambeau has a way of surprising, so figure him in play. Look for a 93 or so.

My choice for diamond in the rough has to be the 4/1, pp1, Hole 'Aus, which has a fair jockey and 14 days rest. If the jockey can cut through the pack to close successfuly, I think this horse can come close to mimicing his last outing of 101. Figure about a 97 in any case.

While I like the 1, it needs be said that while the other horses aren't probable, they can't be positively ruled out, either. Still, I'm going to try to make some money on the back of the 1

WPS 1 $2000 total $6000

Total Wagered: $6,000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
4 MIGHTY MELBOURNE $14.60 $7.50 $5.80
9 DESTINY'S DREAM $3.10 $2.10
7 OPPSDIDITAGAIN(IRE) $9.40

Exacta: $45.60
Trifecta: $512.00

Time of race: 1:09 4/5

My pick, the 1, didn't finish in the money. He got blocked in early on, and was never able to run his race. That left me with a big fat goose egg for this race. Well, ya takes your chances....

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Race ID:1495.1106

Claiming ($7,500) One mile Fast Dirt $6,000 All horses, 3 years old

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 35270 BARB'S PICTURE (5) fastpace R Dickenson 3/1
2 17039 TEEPEE (5) trackman K McKnight 13/1
3 12169 SLEWPETTO (5) dixiepride M Holland 5/2
4 27745 SILVER SNOW (5) squirrelnu L Gordon 7/1
5 73900 JIGTIME II (5) sgtjerk M R Luck 63/1
6 55656 SMART SANTA (5) svenga2 M Robertson 28/1
7 21244 MISTER ALEX (5) lilhorse T Seals 10/1
8 66281 CANNON WINTER (5) mizunomp14 M Grunhard 6/1
9 12294 TOLERANT BOB (5) sk50 Q Redden 11/1
10 30008 MON IN EXCESS (5) horsemen63 X Bader 5/1
11 63470 JED ON THE IMPACT (5) kid7 H Harper 50/1

This Ohio race for claimers is a bit more complicated than it looks at first glance. First thing I'm going to do here is cull out the horses I don't think will make the top 3. At a glance, it looks like the winner will have to have a speed in the 70's, and have the endurance to make 8 furlongs. Let's see what we have.

The 1, 3, 8, 9, and 10 make the cut with a proven ability to make 70. The 9 is a peculiarity which we'll discuss in a minute.

3/1, pp1, Barb's Picture, has a good jockey and 35 days rest. Stable owner Fastpace claimed this horse 3 races back, and on his first outing with the new stable turned in an 82. While he didn't fare well on 14 days rest for the next race, where he turned in a 79, he proved ability at this distance. As a closer, look for him to come thundering down the stretch. With the extra rest and a good jockey, expect a speed of 83 or so.

5/2, pp3, Slewpetto, has an adequate jockey and 35 days rest also. He's never run this far, and his last few outings have been sporadic. Even though he blew an 81 on a sloppy 7 furlong track last outing, I'm not convinced that he's going to duplicate the effort. Figure him for a 78 or so.

6/1, pp8, Cannon Winter, has a good jockey and 21 days rest. He drops off at 7 furlongs, though, and even with a little drop in class and steady improvement over the last few races, I make him to turn in a 74 or so.

11/1, pp9, Tolerant Bob, is a study in aberrations, and its too early to figure out what is causing it. This horse consistently ran in the 60's for stable owner fleaski, but new stable owner sk51, who picked this horse up week 1390, rested the horse until week 1453, and the horse turned in an 83, 2nd place at odds of 100/1. With one of the better jockeys in Ohio, and a rest of 42 days, it looks like sk51 is giving this horse every opportunity, and I'm thinking that the jump in speed wasn't just a fluke. Factor in the longer distance, and I'm thinking a speed of 76 or so.

Last is 5/1, pp10, Mon In Excess, has an average jockey and only 14 days rest. If this horse is going to do it, he's going to have to jump out at the start of this race and dig. He has the ability to hit speed in the 80's, but he's another that has an occasional problem with fading after 7. Figure him for about a 75 or so.

Its going to be a close one, folks, but I'm pulling for the 1, and expecting the 3 to come in 2nd, although any of the other horses listed here could easily surprise.

WPS 1 $2000 total $6000

total wagered: $6000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
8 CANNON WINTER $15.10 $6.90 $6.10
4 SILVER SNOW $8.40 $6.70
7 MISTER ALEX $7.40

Exacta: $165.90
Trifecta: $1652.10

Time of race: 1:37 3/5

My chosen pick, the 1, came in 4th. Not exactly thundering down the track on the stretch, is it? I saw the 8 as a possible winner, but the 4 and 7 surprised me. Another goose egg for this race, but my "system" is paying off with a small overall profit for the week.

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1495 :     $ 23,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1495:     $27,300

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $4,300

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$23,304.50

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735

Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300

Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)

Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!

Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!

Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!

Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!