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Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis For
17 August 2002 - Week 1488
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. After several rough weeks, this week was a jackpot, and I've gone from about $4,600 down to $19,000 up for the campaign. I'm coming back strong!
I'm settling in on a schedule for updating the tip sheet now. Look for it to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped and when the sheet was posted once I've updated this. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
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Race ID:1488.1311
Claiming ($3,500) A mile and one eighth Fast Dirt $3,300 All horses, 3 years old
I'll start off with a race from West Virginia. For some reason, I keep coming back to this track, and while this race isn't going to make me a lot of money, I have a reasonable expectation that I'll be in the green. While it's tempting to play some exotic bets to try to make up for my losing streak, this is the "slow and steady" approach race. Yeah.... right.....
Start off with the favorite, 9/5, pp7 Salt Water Tsunami. Adequate jockey, 14 days rest, and won at 8.5 furlongs two outings ago. He's been running with greater frequency lately, and maintaining speed ratings in the low 70's. I don't see him suddenly getting a boost of speed, especially with an extra furlong, so at best, expect him to turn in a 72-74.
Next is the 5/2, pp8, Gremlins, with a good jockey, and 21 days rest. Stable owner Mystique claimed him 6 races ago, and decided to shift him from turf to dirt. That change added about 20 clicks to speed rating, and his last outing led to a 78 speed at 8 furlongs. My only concern is his tendency to sink like a stone after 7 furlongs. With the extra rest, he should be able to punch out a high 70's speed mark, but that extra furlong could make all the difference. Nevertheless, I'm pegging him to make a strong showing, and figure him to come in at 76-82.
9/2, pp5, River Bob, has an adequate jockey, and two weeks of rest. Stable owner Biteme has been racing him on turf recently for speeds in the mid 50's, but even when he was racing dirt, he was only hitting the mid 60's. This horse just doesn't have it unless a bee lands under his saddle. Give him credit for having just come off a mile and a half race, figure him for a speed of about 68 when all's said and done.
After looking the rest of the field over, the only one which bears mentioning is the 7/1, pp2, Boundless Key. A so-so jockey, but he's only getting 7 days rest, and stable owner Buccaneer has been working him hard this year, all of which adds up to some serious concern. Still, he's been ranging from a 74 to a 61 in his last 3 dirt races. Not enough to win this race, but enough to make third, and maybe even second interesting. I'll give him a nod for third with a speed of about 68
WPS 8 $4000 total $12,000
PS 7 $4000 total $ 8,000
Ex 8-7 $500 total $500
Ex Bx 8-7 $400 total $800
Tri 8-7-2 $400 total $400
Total wagered: $21,700
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
5 RIVER BOB
$11.10 $5.40
$3.40
7 SALT WATER TSUNAMI
$3.20 $2.70
1 SIR ASSEMBLY
$7.80
Exacta: $32.00
Trifecta: $356.00
Time of race: 1:51 3/5
The nag I chose to win came in 24 lengths back. At least the 7 came in 2nd, which netted me $6,400 and $5,400, for a total of $11,800 back on more than $21,000 wagered. I didn't even see the 1 coming, but at least I saw the 2, who finished in 4th. Fortunately, the next race has a better result!
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Race ID:1488.7310
bid race for gbarnes
Starter Allowance ($30,000) Two miles Firm Turf $11,000 All horses, 5 years old and up
Ah, Rhode Island, home to H.P. Lovecraft, Edgar Allan Poe, and this race. I like long races, because it takes a special horse to run more than a mile and a half. While the 2 has the favored odds, stable owner Gbarnes understands just what I mean. There's a reason he has the 5 entered in his bid race.
Favorite 4/5, pp2, Affair Tiring, has a so-so jockey, and two weeks rest from a winning appearance. Upside is that he's punched 100+ speeds a couple of times recently. Downside is that he's been racing on dirt, and hasn't displayed staying power at 10 furlongs, which is his longest recorded distance recently. This is 2 miles on turf! Don't expect a 100 speed in this race. Figure him to be panting by the end, lucky to turn in anything higher than an 65.
Next is 5/2, pp1, Quiet Rally, with an adequate jockey and 14 days rest. While he's been turning in speeds of high 80's- low 90's on turf, he hasn't raced anything longer than 9.5 recently. In that race, however, he was pulling away as he won. Even with the longer distance, expect him to clock in around 70-75.
The 5/1, pp6, Walacki's Bar, gets an adequate jockey, but only 7 days rest. While he's been running on turf, his records suggests he fades hard after 10 furlongs. Again, this is a 2 mile race! His recent speed has been in the low 80's, but with only one week rest and his fading tendency, I peg him for a 60 or so.
8/1, pp3, Fourteen Duke, gets 21 days and an adequate jockey. Used to turf, this horse showed some promise 3 races back, pulling away at 9 furlongs, but that bucks his trend of fading after 10. Speed's been in the low 80's on average, but expect about a 60 when he crosses the line.
The gem of this race is the 8/1, pp5, Fargo Glory, owned by stable owner Gbarnes, who bid this race. Excellent jockey, 21 days rest, and experienced on turf. More importantly, this horse has run 2 miles before. He's won at 2 miles, and he's done it going away. His speed has been eratic on turf, but then, so has the choice of distances. I think the stable owner bid this race for this horse, and I tend to agree with him. I figure this horse to run at 75-85. This is the winner.
14/1, pp4, Bold R., has a lousy jockey and 2 weeks rest. Wouldn't have made a difference anyway -- this horse doesn't have it to compete with the rest of the field.
WPS 5 $4000 total $12,000
PS 1 $4000 total $ 8,000
Ex Box 5-1 $500 total $ 1000
Total Wagered: $21,000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
1 QUIETLY RALLY
$7.80 $4.10 $2.50
5 FARGO GLORY
$7.70 $4.60
4 BOLD R.
$6.10
Exacta: $67.50
Trifecta: $789.40
Time of race: 3:34 3/5
Yahoo!!! While I got the order of the exacta wrong, at least I had it boxed! I pulled $16,875 on the exacta. The place and show bets on the 1 netted me $8,200 and $5,000, and my bets on the 5 netted $15,400 and $9,200, for a total recovery on this race of $54,675. Every now and then I get one right, and this was one of those occasions. Happy dance!
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1488 :
$ 42,900.00
TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1488: $66,475.00
PROFIT/LOSS:
$23,675.00
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
$19,004.50
Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675
Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400
Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150
Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
GRAPH OF BETTING PROGRESS TO DATE
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