Comments, advice and non spam welcomed at :
Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis for
11 August 2002 - Week 1481
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. In the past few weeks, I've taken some rough losses, and I'm now down by about $8,600 for the campaign. Last week's races were good picks... just not good enough. All I need is one good race, and I'm back in the green. Ain't optimism grand?
I'm settling in on a schedule for updating the tip sheet now. Look for it to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped and when the sheet was posted once I've updated this. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
*************************************************
WEEK 1481 -- More races may be added before Saturday.....
Race ID:1481.0102
Allowance A mile and one quarter Good Turf
$73,100
All horses, 3 years old and up
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 45872 SERPENTINE BULL(ARG) ninerae M Cooper 22/1
2 6872 CORNHOLIO LEGEND kickassdud R Lombard 10/1
3 61100 CHOCOLATE DAN chance E Donahue 22/1
4 4793 SETH ROO ask3 Y Dexter 6/1
5 5040 LOMO DANCER astfly D Crack 10/1
6 38332 IRISH HARLEY stallmuck R Tebbs 7/2
7 62982 KID GINNY cougarii A Casillas 35/1
8 35937 INDIANA BIRD(IRE) topmeup V Feller 6/1
9 21477 CROWN TRICKING xabbu M Dorsey 99/1
10 36912 SMART COMMANDER roussy F Gossett 22/1
11 13966 SEPTEMBER JOSE aceone F Griffen 14/1
12 71096 GALOOT FLAPPING rdwhtblu F Porter 27/1
13 28362 CHARACTER A. P. baseball S Steele 5/1
14 6873 CORONADO'S HONORS zinjahal2 O Brim 5/1
This should be an excellent race to handicap. We have 9 furlongs of good turf to
enter into the handicapping equation, and there are some great horses
running.
First things first. Let's cull out the horses that have been running with a speed number of less than 90 on a somewhat regular basis. That leaves me the 4,6,10, 13, and 14. In my opinion, the rest of the pack doesn't have what its going to take to overcome these 5 horses.
Now, let's see which horse appear to fade after 8 furlongs. The 4 has speed, but fades at 8.5, and a lousy jockey to boot. The 6 is a closer that can handle the distance, and the big concern here is whether he'll repeat a 100+ speed after a long, long layoff. The 10 has speed in the 50's for long routes, but can produce in the low 90's for a race of this distance. Add on a great jockey, and if this horse can steer clear of the blocking moves, it could be in play. The 13 has a lousy jockey, and fades by the final turn. Finally, there's the 14, which fades after 8 furlongs like a rock in water. I don't see this horse as the winner.
I'm going to go with the 4, 14, and 13. The 4 solidly has my nod for first, and its a toss up for me between the 13 and 14. I'm giving the nod to the 14, since I think the 13 needs another week off .
WPS 4 $2000 total $6000
S 4 $6000 total $6000
Ex Bx 4-14-13 $500 total$3000
Total wagered: $ 15,000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
6 IRISH HARLEY
$9.30 $5.90 $4.20
13 CHARACTER A. P.
$7.50 $5.30
5 LOMO DANCER
$7.90
Exacta: $63.70
Trifecta: $459.10
Time of race: 2:04 3/5
Yes, this was the "Proposed Race of the Week", and I flopped on this one. The 6 exceeded my expectation, but deservedly won this race. The 4 didn't even finish in the money, much to my distress. This one is a total writeoff of $15,000. What a way to start a morning!
*****************************
Race ID:1481.0907
Maiden Special Weight Five and one half furlongs
Fast Dirt $19,600
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 61849 BONUS PATROL(FR) atol57 W Harrison 9/5
2 16916 OVER WITHIN TEJANO andro33 M Bussey 15/1
3 67078 SISTER CELESTIAL celebrial R Case 4/1
4 78843 DIRT VOTE firefly B Schock 68/1
5 55241 CAERLEON VENUS tae M Stone 99/1
6 41938 SISTER KELLY fkprawn D J Joe 14/1
7 2863 DEDICATED CLIQUE hippopete S Bollinger 64/1
8 77298 FIFTH GEAR II grantp C Hargain 21/1
9 65292 ALLEN'S LEASES drummers S Kramer 15/1
10 67830 DRILL LEGEND(FR) shyhero G McMurtry 7/1
11 60265 CLUB EXALT(GB) bigdstable L Bell 15/1
12 47323 FREE FLYING POWER chris24 F Lofton 8/1
13 66184 HABANERO LINDA william Q Oliver 21/1
14 12932 SECRET HALO lele S Myslinski 12/1
I normally don't handicap maiden races, but I came across this race because my horse is in it, and I think she's going to win it. She has a great jockey on her, and speeds in her first three outings were 72, 94, and 71, after which she was injured and has been working back. I've treated her gingerly during her recovery, and chose this rather short race for her return, since she ran her 94 at the same distance. The favorite is flirting with the low 80's, and I think my horse is going to surpass that by at least 5-8 points or more. Could just be pride in my stable speaking, but I'm willing to wager some money on this one.
WPS 3 $2000 total $6,000
S 3 $6000 total $6,000
Total Wagered: 12, 000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
3 SISTER CELESTIAL $10.20
$6.00 $3.70
14 SECRET HALO
$11.10 $8.90
4 DIRT VOTE
$15.80
Exacta: $118.30
Trifecta: $7585.70
Time of race: 1:04 2/5
Sister Celestial came through for me, closing from down 9 lengths at one point. She netted me $10,200 in the win bet, $6,000 on the place bet, and $14,800 on the heavy show bets, for a total of $31,000, for a profit on this race of $19,000, and a profit on the day of $4,000. Finally! Back on the right track!
*****************************
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1481 : $ 27,000
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1481: $31,000
PROFIT/LOSS:
$4,000.00
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
-$4,670.50
Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000
Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400
Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150
Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
GRAPH OF BETTING PROGRESS TO DATE
Comments, advice and non spam welcomed at :