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Celebrial's Tip Sheet
3 August 2002 - Week 1474
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. In the past few weeks, I've taken some rough losses, and I'm now down by about $6,300 for the campaign. Last week's races were good picks... its just the damned horses didn't cooperate like they should have! That will change next week as I bet even more! Bwa ha ha ah ha !
I'm settling in on a schedule for updating the tip sheet now. Look for it to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped and when the sheet was posted once I've updated this. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
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WEEK 1474 -- More races to be added before Saturday!
Race ID:1474.0715
The Mark Muchitsch Memorial Starter Allowance ($5,000)
Six furlongs Fast Dirt $50,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 36895 BEECH GOBBLE pinerivers B Bryant 15/1
2 35513 WITHOUT APPROVAL fabman A Ching 5/1
3 63392 SHELL DAISY(GB) waynez2 C Noe 20/1
4 49337 GOLDEN ROBIN corza4 B J Tolliver 8/1
5 50568 CLOUDINGS BROCHE(IRE) oddly H Zoon 9/1
6 4030 CLASSY DIXIE tigger C Johnson 7/1
7 59520 SHYBUTSLY jarrod2 L Waymer 19/1
8 29490 WELL SADDLED swestable W Kozak 6/1
9 27803 FAVORITE DAUGHTER sinner M Wafford 20/1
10 48130 CONQUERING TARA(IRE) highroller Y Dunbar 10/1
11 48702 BOLD GOLD stelplas P Munoz 52/1
12 32995 BOBBLE HAT GB branrg D McCants 3/1
13 55603 BOCBTHREE toogood P Williams 21/1
14 16038 SIX AND TWO THREES oms R Logan 29/1
This race is one of two memorial races hosted by Fabman. Full story is on the message board. A good turnout of young horses for this one.... should be a lot of fun. Yours truly has a nag entered in the companion race, 0714.
First, rule out the 1, 3, 7, 9, 11,13, and 14. They're just outclassed by faster horses in this one.
That leaves the 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, and 12.
Race sponser, Fabman owns the pp2, Without Approval, which goes off at 5-1. Jockey A. Ching last rode this horse in week 1425, and broke her maiden. This horse has been working a 21 day cycle recently, and now gets a full 28 days rest. With speed ratings in the high 70's to mid 80's, look for this horse to try to break to the front early, and never look back. The extra rest gives her a boost. Speed in the mid -high 80's or so.
Pp4, Golden Robin, goes off at 8-1. She gets 49 days rest after a slide from mid 80's to low 70's. Fully rested now, but lousy jock is death for this closer as she has the oomph, but can't break through. Speed in low 80's.
Pp5, Cloudings Broche, goes off at 9-1. Had a flash of brilliance in week 1397, but sporadic since then. Sufficient jockey, but I still only figure this horse for a speed in the low 80's.
Pp 6, Classy Dixie, goes off at 7-1. Has an adequate jock and making a steady campaign of speed increases into the 80's for last 3 races. Figure this horse at about 83-84.
Pp8, Well Saddled, goes off at 6-1. Miserable jockey on a nice horse. Has enough rest, and dropping way down in class for this race. Looks like she peaks at about 7 furlongs, but might be able to finish early. Still, something doesn't feel right about picking this one to win. Expect this horse to turn a speed of about 83
Pp10, Conquering Tara, is a 10/1. While well rested for this race, probably still won't turn in anything higher than 80.
Pp,12, Bobble Hat, goes off at 3/1. Except for the last race, which was turf, this horse has been turning in speed figures in the high 80's -90's recently, and right around this distance, too. Expect a speed of about 90-92.
So, it looks like my call is going to be 12, 2, and the 6 or 8
WPS 12 $2000 total $6000
S 12 $6000 total $6000
Ex 12-2 $3000 total $3000
Tri 12-2-6 $1000 total $1000
Tri 12-2-8 $1000 total $1000
Total Wagered: $17,000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
12 BOBBLE HAT GB
$8.40 $5.00
$3.80
8 WELL SADDLED
$7.50 $6.30
10 CONQUERING TARA(IRE) $7.90
Exacta: $67.50
Trifecta: $473.50
Time of race: 1:10 3/5
Bless that beautiful Bobble hat, who came in nicely for me. I culled back $8,400 on my win bet, $5,000 on my place bet, and $15,200 on my show bets, for a total of $28,600, a profit of $13,400 on this race. The 8 fared better than I expected, but the 2 didn't even come in the money. Still, after a number of difficult bets, its nice to see a profitable race cropping up.
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Race ID:1474.4314
Allowance A mile and one sixteenth Fast Dirt
$15,300
Fillies and mares, 3 years old, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $600,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 72271 GET THE TIME out S Simmons 23/1
2 28112 PROUDFOOT LAURIE slewtpie B Oneightytwo 7/1
3 44292 POUND AWAY nijinsky3 A Tucci 10/1
4 8228 HUSHWING ONE hushwing1 A Boyst 9/1
5 39220 NADINE gerbil Q Lussi 7/1
6 59194 RED'S NINER afc V Berwick 10/1
7 73029 CARSON CITY KITTY esbstables T Friar 8/1
8 11919 ZIPPY ZIG theprofit5 M Bouwens 7/1
9 17926 LING WOO uglymonkey T Wilson 13/1
10 13540 LADY TRIPLE gooner N Owen 6/1
11 44200 JOLIE'S WAY pwong01 D Zordich 7/1
12 38846 QUIK FAME zinjahal C Naole 7/1
Its getting late on Friday, so this one is going to be brief.
Pp10, 6/1 favorite Lady Triple has a lot going for her. She's just been shipped from France to South Dakota for this race, she's dropping down in class, and if you discount her last two races because they were on turf, she's showing a steady progression up the ranks into the 90's for speed. While I'd rather give her 21 days instead of 14, and I'd prefer a stronger jockey, I think this horse has the ability to be a lock for somewhere in the top three, but most probably first. I'm not seeing any other horses which have cracked 90 yet, although a few are poised to do it, possibly the 5 or 9. With odds of 6/1, I find it hard to pass this race up.
WPS 10 $2000 total $6000
S 10 $5000 total, $5000
Ex box 10-5-9 $500 total $3000
Total Wagered : $14,000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place
Show
4 HUSHWING ONE $20.70
$11.60 $6.80
11 JOLIE'S WAY
$9.90 $5.90
5 NADINE
$5.30
Exacta: $214.00
Trifecta: $1476.30
Time of race: 1:44 3/5
Not even close on this one, and it cost me 14,000 smackers! Ouch. The 10 rode from the back, and just kept falling further behind, the 9 finished 5th, and only the 5 finished on the tote board. This is going to be one of those "I better look at this again" races this week, so I can figure out what went so horribly, awfully wrong.
Total recovery : $0.00. Nada. Not a plug nickel.
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1474 : $ 31,000
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1474: $28,600
PROFIT/LOSS: -$2,400
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
-$8,670.50
Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400
Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150
Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
GRAPH OF BETTING PROGRESS TO DATE
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