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Celebrial's Tip Sheet
Analysis for
27 July 2002 - Week 1467
Overview
I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. In the past few weeks, I've taken some rough losses, and I'm now down by about $3,100 for the campaign. I some cardinal rules last week, by choosing races which I didn't feel comfortable with, and by betting much more than usual with a hope of getting back on keel, and it cost me.
I'm settling in on a schedule for updating the tip sheet now. Look for it to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped and when the sheet was posted once I've updated this. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands, and I think one of the reasons my handicapping has suffered is because I've been choosing races too hastily.
If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.
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WEEK 1467 --
Despite the cardinal rule to not increase the amount of your bets when you've been losing, my plan this week includes laying down some whopper bets with the hope of getting back in the green. Yet another case in life of "do as I say, not as I do", but there you are.
Two notes for this week -- Handicappers are testing their skills in the "race of the week" in the handicapper's forum by choosing the win, place and show horses for race 6114. Whomever gets the most right and posts first gets to choose the race to handicap as "race of the week" next week, so feel free to try you skill.
Second, Fabman's stables will be running two memorial races next week, which will lead to a runoff race a little later. Check the open horse racing message board for more info.
Race ID:1467.3806
Allowance Seven furlongs Fast Dirt $10,100
All horses, 3 years old and up, Restricted to horses whose CPU value is $1,000,000 or less and AT LEAST 5 races previously run
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 3032 PATRIOT WALACKI vampiress W Iverson 8/1
2 64576 BROTHER AMAD inzamam P Haynes 8/1
3 34901 URBAN MILK jeremyf F Hutchinson 9/1
4 54843 DOUG'S PROSPECTS fadein34 O Noe 19/1
5 1912 BBOR'S CLAIM bbor1 O Klingler 9/1
6 69966 TOTO TILL BINGO(GB) henry P Francis 46/1
7 7952 ALL STAR MARLIN pilate R Buck 6/1
8 36939 PRINCESS'S STORMS perks2 M Imahoff 6/1
9 35409 DEBEE CAMCORDER meant2be M Humphries 8/1
10 11346 LOUISIANA HOUSE nathndtroi V Lake 8/1
11 28387 WEST FOR DANCE pudj1 M Collins 7/1
12 6773 CLASSY RIVER(FR) fines L Kurk 5/1
I came across this race in the handicapping forum, where stable owner inzamam guarantees that his pp2 is going to win or place, or he will swim across the Pacific. Well, time to see if Inzy is going to be donning swimming trunks any time soon.
This is an appealing race in that the odds are higher than usual, and offers the chance for a nice little killing. Of course, the only trick is picking the right horses. So, here goes.
Favorite 5/1, pp12, Classy River, has a great jockey, and is back on a regular training schedule after having taken 7 weeks off. In this one, he's running with 14 days rest, but he's demonstrated that he can do the job and not lose speed with such a regimen. 6.5 - 7 furlongs is just about the right distance for him, the jockey should be able to get him to the middle of the pack early, and there's little reason to expect that he'll turn in anything less than a mid 90's speed rating. As he can run as well on dirt as on turf, count this horse in for the action.
Next come the 6/1 pp7, All Star Marlin, and pp8 Princess's Storms. Capable jockey on the 7, which goes off with 14 days rest, but that's only enhanced his performance in the past. While not dynamic at anything over 7 furlongs, that's all he has to go here, if he can get into the leader's pack from the gate. With a speed rating of 105 in his last race, this horse also looks to be in the action, and wouldn't surprise me if he clocks in at the high 90's to low 100's.
The pp 8 also has an adequate jockey, and has 21 days rest. However, on the 21 day schedule, his speed rating has dropped a few points for each of the last few outings, and I'm not seeing any indication of speed greater than the low 90's, so I'm counting this horse out.
7/1, pp11, West for Dance, has a miserable jockey, but goes with 21 days rest. Note that stable owner pudj1 claimed this horse in week 1299, and then diverted from this horse's habit of running every 7 days and pulling in a 90 or so speed rating. Overall, this horse doesn't impress me, doesn't look to close well at 7 furlongs, and is out of contention for me.
Next come a slew of 8/1 shots, including Inzamam's pp2, pp1, pp9, and pp10.
Pp 1, Patriot Walacki, has a middling jockey, and goes on 14 days rest. While claimed for only $13,500 in week 1369, stable owner vampiress has achieved some nice speed ratings with the 14 day program, and looks to be settling into another mini-campaign. This horse has a tendency to close down the stretch, and while he has the ability to hit the mid 90's, I don't expect that to happen this time in this race. Instead, expect a speed rating in the high 80's, low 90's, as this horse works back into a routine. While this horse will be a better contender next time out, I'm not giving him the nod for this race.
Pp2, Brother Amad, has the best jockey in this race, and goes off with a healthy 56 day rest. Expect the jockey to push this horse at the beginning to help set the pace, and if that happens, this horse should fly. Maybe he won't hit a speed rating of 117 (that's not a typo) again in this race, if he can get the jump, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the first 3 with a 100+ rating, or at least in the high 90's. I hate trying to call horses which have had longer layoffs, and which had a lousy last outing. This horse has been a bit erratic, but if you throw out the long distance races, and look at the under a mile races, this beast can fly. Definitely in play.
Pp 9, Debee Camcorder, has a lousy jockey and 14 days rest. Even if the jockey jumps out at the gate, which is what this horse needs, he hasn't done well at 7, and seems to fade after 6. While this horse has hit speed ratings in the mid to high 90's, expect the best he'll see in this race is low 90's, so count him out as a favorite.
Pp 10, Lousiana House, has a lousy jockey as well, but 21 days rest. That being said, this horse has only cracked 90 once, and that just isn't going to be enough for this race. Count him out.
9/1 odds exist for the pp3 and pp5. Pp 3, Urban milk, has a barely adequate jockey and gets only 7 days rest for this race. 14 days rest has proven best for this horse in the past, and while the last race may have been a warmup, I'm not expecting a 15-20 point jump in speed for this horse. Expect a speed in the high 80's to low 90's which is just not enough to compete. Pp5, Bbor's Claim, has another miserable jockey, but gets 35 days rest to make her case. Notice that this horse seems to fade after 6.5, and keep in mind that other than a single 100, this horse has been racing in the 80's, and I don't expect this horse to vie for the winner's circle.
Neither of the remaining horses has enough to overpower this crowd, so don't look for them
I come up with the 12, 7, and 2 as my favorites to win, with the 7 and 2 being a tossup for winning. Looks like Inzamam gets to stay on shore this week.
WPS 2 $1000 total $3000
PS 7 $1000 total, $2000
Ex bx 2-7-12 $500 total, $3,000
Tri bx 2-7-12 $500 total, $3,000
Total wagered: $11,000
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse
Win Place Show
4 DOUG'S PROSPECTS
$41.20 $16.70 $9.30
2 BROTHER AMAD
$8.90 $5.80
9 DEBEE CAMCORDER
$6.10
Exacta: $497.40
Trifecta: $3964.70
Time of race: 1:22 1/5
Much to my, and most other folk's surprise, Doug's Prospects did have enough to overpower the crowd, even if it was only by a length and a half. Inzamam, winner of the first Race of the Week competition, doesn'thave to climb Mt. Everest or swim the Pacific, as his horse made it into second place. The 12 landed in 4th place, and the 7th was wholly out of the money. Still, with the bets made on the 2 to place and show, I received $4450 and $2900respectively, for a total recovery of $7350, which translates to a -$3,650 gross loss on this race. Close, but no cigar, and a loss for this race.
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Race ID:1467.1315
Allowance A mile and one sixteenth Firm Turf $9,900
All horses, 3 years old, Non-Winners of TWO except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter
PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 75306 STRIKE FOR IT horseplay C Childress 29/1
2 57262 OPERATION IVY jahskunk3 Z Watters 4/1
3 9828 NOT SO GRAN SENOR tbloode S Tate 12/1
4 12666 NORABARA(IRE) mpm12 P Coleman 5/1
5 26822 KOKO wiz R Bruce 7/1
6 11056 LANDOFTHEMAMMOTH nextbonus T Childress 8/1
7 7730 CRYPTONARCHIST ba J Hash 3/1
8 73099 GOLD CONQUEST hillside E Hudson 5/1
9 62813 BEAVIS UNDER CASE thelegacy S Tiggle 15/1
10 73814 FLEETWOOD II kdiv S Kelly 11/1
From New Hampshire, we trod back into the hollows and hills of West Virginia for another race which favors the bettor. This is a 9 furlong turf race, which should provide some good opportunities.
3/1 favorite, pp7, Cryptonarchist, has a mediocre jockey, 21 days rest, and is trying out turf for his first time, which incidentally, is his first shot at anything longer than a mile. Note that his best performances are on good dirt, instead of the fast dirt, and its not hard to expect that this horse might adapt well to the turf. Speed ratings have been in the 90's recently, but without the jockey to break through and guide him down the stretch, I'm doubtful that this horse can do it.
4/1 pp2, Operation Ivy, has a good jockey and 21 days rest. While he's only turned in high 80's performances recently, he's familiar with turf and the length, and with the extra 7 days rest, should turn in a performance in the high 80's, which should be enough for this race.
Two 5/1 horses go off -- the pp4 and pp8. Pp 4, Norabara, has a poor jockey, and is getting 42 days rest. If ridden to close, this horse has a chance, but the choice of jockey makes me feel uncomfortable about touting him. Also, note how this horse fades after 8 furlongs. Give him a break for the long rest, and the drop in class from previous races, and while this horse could be in play, I'm not expecting him to cross the line first.
Pp8, Gold Conquest, has an average jockey and is getting 70 days rest. Past performance shows an affinity for the turf, and although this horse has never gone 9 furlongs, he shows an ability to move close in longer races. This race is the first test of a race longer than a mile, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this horse coming down the stretch to surprise some folks, possibly me included. I think this horse is in play, and could threaten the 2.
7/1, pp5, Koko, has an average jockey and 14 days rest. While this horse has only seen 1 turf race, and seems to prosper better on dirt, this horse can close, and can run the distance. While I don't expect this horse to have as dramatic a raise in speed ratings as he did the last time he saw 14 days rest, I still expect him to be in the mid 80's when all's said and done. Nice, but not enough.
8/1, pp6, Landofthemammoth, has a poor jockey, 14 days rest, and does best as a closer. I would have passed right over him, except for that 93 speed rating 2 races back. While that's impressive, and while this horse appears to be on a good training schedule for future victories, I note that the speed rating falls with each extra half furlong added, and I don't expect this race to be mucy different. Expect this horse to come in around the low 80's, and not have enough left at the end to boost ahead.
Of the remaining horse, only the 12/1, pp3, Not So Gran Senor, impresses me as having a chance. The 3 has a great jockey, 21 days rest, and has recently won on turf at this distance with a speed rating of 83. While he isn't at his strongest at 9 furlongs (8.5 looks optimal for him), the only concern is the speed rating of 52 turned in during his last race of 13 furlongs. Still, considering the competition, I think this horse could be in play.
I come up with the 7. 2, 4, 8, and 3 as my choices for this race, with the 7, 2, and 3 getting my nod as most probable. Most solid is the 2 being in play, while I have concerns about the 7 translating to turf and concerns about the 3's last race. Still, with the odds offered, this leaves some room for some nice bets.
PS 2 $2000 total $4000
S 7 $1000 total $1000
S 3 $1000 total $1000
Ex bx 2-3-7 $500 total $3,000
Tri 2-7-3 $300 total $300
Tri 7-2-3 $300 total $300
Total wagered: $9,600
AFTERMATH:
Post Horse Win Place Show
4 NORABARA(IRE) $13.70 $7.60 $4.30
2 OPERATION IVY $5.50 $4.60
10 FLEETWOOD II $7.90
Exacta: $84.80
Trifecta: $840.00
Time of race: 1:43 2/5
First, the bad news. The 3 and 7 came in 6th and 7th place respectively, neither of them running an especially impressive race, and thus condemning my exotic wagers to doom. The good news is that the place and show bets on the 2 returned $5,500 and $4,600 respectively, for a total recover of $10,100, and for a $500 gross profit on this race. The winning pp4 jumped out to third, and held on, closing hard, and thus being able to bring home a win.
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Another tough week at the track.....
TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1467 : $ 20,600.00
TOTAL RECOVERED FOR WEEK 1467: $17,450.00
PROFIT/LOSS:
-$3,150.00
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:
-$6,270.50
Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150
Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735
Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300
Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)
Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!
Results of Week 1432 - Bet $5,560, Received back, $5,730 - profit of $170!
Results of Week 1425 - Bet $740, Received back, $0 - loss of $740!
Results of Week 1418 - Bet $1775, Received back, $1,954 - profit of $179!
Results of Week 1411 - Bet $1000, Received back, $3,490 - profit of $2,490!
Results of Week 1404 - Bet $1740, Received back, $3,994 - profit of $2,254!
GRAPH OF BETTING PROGRESS TO DATE
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