Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis For

14 September 2002 - Week 1516

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1509 was a vacation -- nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1516.5402

Claiming ($10,000) Two miles Firm Turf $6,700
All horses, 3 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO Lifetime

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 48863 CAHILL COMET (5) finkfarms0 K Williams 9/1
2 59193 PHARLITH II (5) ricdav093 L Fontain 16/1
3 12483 RUN THE CRYPT (5) teaplanter M Hobbs 8/1
4 13406 MIGRANT FOAL (5) hambeau S Smelt 20/1
5 64620 FREE STICK (5) stableone T Culpepper 7/2
6 51438 TANZ DER TEUFEL (5) toral6 M Long 4/5
7 74800 SILVER HEART (5) pebbles M Ridenour 7/1
8 22237 SAINT TOM (5) eel1977 G Stepnoski 26/1
9 70 AGAIN DANCE(IRE) (5) brendon R Leonard 50/1

I like long races for handicapping purposes. Sure, most horses may be able to kick butt at 6 or 8 furlongs, but you can usually tell right off when a horse the ability to prosper at 12 furlongs or up. For today's first race, we're going to New South Wales for a two mile turf race.

4/5 favorite, pp6 Tanz Der Teufel, gets 14 days rest, and he has a lousy jockey. He's run a 90, and a few a bit shy of there, which is why he gets his favorite ranking. But, consider that he hasn't gone further than 7 in recent memory, hasn't run on turf in recent memory, and seems to have trouble staying with the field after 6 furlongs, I'm not impressed. Saturday could prove me wrong, but I think there has to be a better choice.

7/2, pp5, Free Stick has been turning in high 60's on dirt recently, and while he didn't shine with a 10 furlong turf race a while back, there isn't much here to make me think this guy's "the one", either.

The horses that shine to me are the 1 and the 7. The pp1, Cahill Comet, goes off at 9/1. He's getting 14 days rest, has a great jockey, and closed from behind in a MSW16100, 14 furlong turf race last time out. He won. He can go the distance, can close when he needs to, can do it in a better class of horses than is here, and he likes turf. Granted, high 50's and low 60's at longer distances aren't that impressive, but when you win at 14 on turf, its good enough.

The pp7, Silver Heart, goes off at 7/1. He's getting 42 days rest, also has a great jockey, but hasn't gone further than 8, and hasn't been on turf in a few races. Still, with a 70 speed last time out at 9 furlongs, an improvement from speeds in the mid 60's at 8 a little while back, this horse has the potential to do something after 10 furlongs. I'm not going to hold my breath, but he's worth some consideration.

WPS 1 $2000 $6000

S 1 $6000 $6000

Ex Bx 1-7 $500 $1000

Total Wagered: $13,000

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                             Win         Place             Show
8         SAINT TOM                 $55.30     $16.20         $10.10
7         SILVER HEART                            $9.60           $6.20
1         CAHILL COMET                                              $5.20

Exacta: $570.70
Trifecta: $5029.50

Time of race: 3:37 3/5

Even with the 1 coming in to show, I made $20,800. I didn't see the 8 being a threat, and its obvious the oddsmakers didn't see him either. While others laugh at show bets, once again, it makes this a profitable race for me, instead of a loser.

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Race ID:1516.2802

Allowance A mile and three quarters Fast Dirt $30,900 All horses, 3 years old and up

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 6284 BRASHLY IN AN IC oaklawn88 M Bragg 6/1
2 70123 L'ROD'S BOARDS golddust N Rhodes 5/1
3 32374 SEE THRU MIRROR chips22 R Tatersall 4/1
4 15505 BURNING TILL MOOSE(ARG) millerfarm B Renfroe 10/1
5 33174 NEARLY FOR MOON evilgenki D Dagriz 99/1
6 72643 SILVER STAR gkm3 F Fraser 6/1
7 28786 SHERYL'S FISH moley M Romberg 99/1
8 37301 KILL SWITCH sable N Linville 10/1
9 37386 STORM REBUILDING taz W Leblanc 7/2
10 3688 OLD WASTE hofface K Ebner 12/1
11 4622 SYMBOL KHAN sunsilence C Brubaker 5/1

We hop a jet to Ontario for another long race. This time its 14 furlong for a race with some promising odds. Let's see what we got, abbreviated style:

pp1 - 83 speed at 12.

pp2 - gone 14 at 103 a few weeks back, 85 last week.

pp3 - 93 speed at 14, 100's last 2 times out at 10.

pp4 - Hasn't done even 12 in a while, had a 69 then. Mostly fades away.

pp5 -66 spd @ 14. Nope.

pp6 - 99 speed at 12 a while back, getting 28 days rest, able jockey. Could do nicely at 14.

pp7 - 41 speed at 13, 38 lengths back. Un-uh.

pp8 - 87 at 16 last time out, great jockey, 2 weeks rest. Did a 95 at 15 and won the time out before. This one is likable.

pp9 - Speed in the 90's at 8 furlongs, hasn't run further in recent memory. Impressive in the shorter races, but he fades at 8, and isn't going to make it.

pp10 -Won with a 93 at 11 last time out, but has lousy jockey and 2 weeks rest. Has turned in between low 70's and low 90's at 14, another contender.

pp 11 - Has been turning in performances in the 90's at 14 and winning them or coming in second. Miserable jockey and 14 days rest. This one's in the running.

That gets us to the 6,8,10, and 11. The 11 stands out, with the 8,6, and 10 following. Still, with the odds, and the clear differences in what we have to work with, the exacta box should be profitable if we have the right horses.

WPS 11 $2000 $6000

S 11 $6000 $6000

S 8 $1000 $1000

Ex Bx 11-8-6-10 $500 $6,000

Total Wagered $19,000

AFTERMATH

Post     Horse                             Win         Place         Show
6     SILVER STAR                 $15.10     $7.40         $4.80
11     SYMBOL KHAN                          $8.40         $4.90
2     L'ROD'S BOARDS                                            $5.00

Exacta: $101.30
Trifecta: $577.00

Time of race: 3:01 3/5

While the 11 didn't win outright, my place bet returned $8,400, and my show bet yielded $19,600. I had debated whether to box my exacta bets or just do a straight wheel off the 11, and since the odds were high enough to make it a worthwhile bet, I went with the box. Am I glad I did that! The exacta paid me $50,600, making my total yield for this race $78,600.

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1516 :     $32,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1516:     $99,400

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $67,400

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$125,004.50

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735

Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300

Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)

Results of Week 1439 - Bet $3,640, Received back, $2,035 - a loss of $1,605(ouch)!