Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis For

21 September 2002 - Week 1523

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1523 showed a healthy return on investment.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1523.2208

bid race for shredder1 Allowance A mile and three quarters Fast Dirt $30,400
All horses, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of TWO except Maiden, Claiming, Optional or Starter

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 43790 JUPITER'S HOOTER poppop2 H Wilson 4/1
2 37772 ALYRINK mossop234 I Wimpy 18/1
3 22691 APRIL TWO(NZ) boner2 L Ferguson 8/1
4 26921 TIME WARP koalaking V Parks 6/1
5 4089 OVER UNTIL STUD tristan5 R Hall 36/1
6 60229 ALONE FROM FUZZ graphite00 B Ironside 11/1
7 30886 ROSE BLACKBERRY shredder1 F Gunn 9/1
8 65223 PLUMBER IAGO donavin1 C Sanders 9/2
9 34554 LORD BAREFOOT(GB) devineequ3 T Vincent 5/2
10 10777 BOULDER DIAMOND qycao C Nay 14/1
11 59919 WOODEN NIJINSKY kdiv H Ross 46/1

After last week's foreign jetsetting, its time to come back home to the States for a little race in Delaware. Another long race hre -- 14 furlongs -- and on dirt. And the odds don't tell the whole story. Note that shredder1 bid on this race. Time to see if he chose a better race for his horse than in week 1502, when his pp 7 in this race(Rose Blackberry) came in 3rd, while the 9 came in 2nd. At 14 on dirt.

Start with the 5/2 pp9, Lord Barefoot. He's getting 21 days rest, and has a fair jockey. Came in 2nd by a nose last time out at 14, with a 89 speed. Last race marked a step up to 14 furlongs, but this horse has run well at distance.

Next is 4/1, pp1, Jupiter's Hooter. 21 days rest, fair jockey. While he's turned in speeds in the 90's with regularity, its been at a mile or less, and he seems to fade behind at that distance. I don't see him in the mix at the end of 14.

9/2, pp8, Plumber Iago, is another horse with some nice speed marks at shorter distances. However, in 4 of the last 5 races, he's been falling behind by 8 furlongs, and I don't expect him to be in the front when 14 have gone by.

6/1, pp4, Time Warp, gets 28 days but a lousy jockey. While this horse has turned in some respectable speeds at a mile or less, he's also turned in an 82 at 16 furlongs on good dirt, and he was closing hard into 4th. While not as strong as the 9, this guy's in contention if the jockey can say sober for this race.

8/1, pp3 April Two, gets 21 days and has a miserable jockey. While he hasn't run long in recent history, his last two ventures at 9f showed him pulling away from the field down the stretch, all at a nice speed. This guy has a real chance..

9/1, pp7, Rose Blackberry, gets 21 days and a lousy jockey. This horse wasn't as strong as the 9 last time out, and while a strong contender, he doesn't look like he's going to win. Still, a contender for 2nd or below, though.

11/1, pp6, Alone From Fuzz, gets 14 days and an able jockey, and comes off a 10 furlong turf win. This horse likes to run in front, and while he turned out a 91 at 10 f on turf last time, he would have been better served to rest for another 2 weeks before trying this distance. Still, this guy could be in play at the end.

The balance of the field doesn't yield any surprises, so its between the 9, 3, 7, and 6. The 9 looks the strongest, and I think the 7 has a good shot too. Just like old times....

WPS 9 $2000 total $6000

S 9 $4000 total $4000

S 7 $6000 total $6000

Ex Bx 9-3-7-6 $500 total $6000

Tri 9-7-3 $500 total $500

Tri 9-7-6 $500 total $500

Total Wagered: $23,000

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                                     Win         Place         Show
3     APRIL TWO(NZ)                    $18.80     $10.00         $6.80
7     ROSE BLACKBERRY                             $9.00         $6.20
4     TIME WARP                                                               $5.60

Exacta: $205.20
Trifecta: $1797.80

Time of race: 3:03 1/5

While the 9 faded out of the picture by 3rd call, the 7 held on to make me $18,600 on the show bet, and the 3-7 exacta paid me $51,300, for a total recovery of $69,900 on this race. As you may have noticed, my goal is to make bets which will either pull in a large catch if they hit, or to make insurance bets to take the sting out if those bets don't come through. In this race, my insurance bet and my big catch bets came through, but my standard WPS money maker tanked.

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Race ID:1523.0211

bid race for dlynche Starter Allowance ($5,000) A mile and three quarters Fast Dirt $26,100
All horses, 4 years old and up

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 45868 FIELD SHAN poocher P Walker 12/1
2 5516 TOUGH JACK les222 L Kinchen 4/5
3 27816 ROBE PLUNDERING dlynche V Gardner 7/5
4 5310 TEN CAP oxymoron3 A Darling 7/2

At first blush, this looks like a lot of miserable odds in a very small Florida field. Look at the 1, though, with odds of 12/1. Wouldn't it be nice if the 1 could do something interesting?

4/5 pp2, Tough Jack, gets 14 days an a fair jockey for the ride. While he blew a 103 two races back, that was at 6. Notice that as the distance increases, his speed drops down as well and he falls further behind in the pack? If this race was 6 furlongs, I'd have to think seriously about him. But, at 14, I think he'll run himself out early on and come limping home.

Well, what about the 7/5, pp3, Robe Plundering, you might ask. 21 days rest, a great jockey, and while stable owner Dlynche bid a 14f race for him last time out where he came in 3rd, this guy has turned in a 90 at 14 furlongs just before that, taking the win. The race before that, he turned in an 87 at 14, and came in 2nd. This guy is definitely in the mix.

The 7/2, pp4, Ten Cap, gets 14 days and a decent jockey. While he's shined at 10f recently with an 88, his history suggests that he fades past 10, and 14 might be too much for him. Not as strong as the 3.

Now, what about that forsaken, 12/1 pp1, Field Shan. Judging by the odds, this horse has to be miserable, right? 14 days rest, a decent jockey, but he doesn't have blistering speed marks. However... note that in his last race (which is 14f, incidentally), he turned in a 72, but goes from holding a lead by a nose at the 3rd call to being ahead by 7 at the finish. A few races before that, another 14f race, a 62 speed for the win, and again, he holds the lead by a length at the third call, but blows out to an 11 length lead at the finish. Time before that, it was 16 sloppy furlongs for a win, and he went from a 4 length lead at the 3rd call to a 17 length win. Yeah, this guy's speed numbers haven't been impressive, and there's no doubt that the 3 can do 14 a bit faster. But, I'm thinking that maybe this horse just hasn't been challenged down the stretch. While this horse may not win, I think he's going to be in play, and I think he can make me some money.

S 1 $4000 total $4000

Ex 3-1 $1000 total$1000

Total Wagered: $5000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
3 ROBE PLUNDERING $4.90 $2.20 $2.10
4 TEN CAP $3.90 $2.10
1 FIELD SHAN $2.10

Exacta: $15.30
Trifecta: $141.50

Time of race: 3:05 1/5

While I got all the aspects of how the race was going to go down exactly right, I was hoping the show bet would pay a little more, which would have made this a worthwhile venture. Even so, the 1 almost took 2nd place. Total recovery here was $4200.

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Race ID:1523.1301

Allowance One mile Fast Dirt $6,900
All horses, 3 years old, Non-Winners of ONE within the last 3 months

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 7685 SIMPLY THE BEST II madison J Hash 22/1
2 907 MERTZY PORK mark14 C Kasper 50/1
3 9139 AWAY BELOW THE SOD mark14 S Tate 99/1
4 62734 LIL GROOM theburglar B Davis Even
5 53095 IVAN YAMIL ivanyamil P Iverson 7/1
6 3652 LE SOLEIL NOIR rufus2k1 C Childress 4/1
7 6954 CARSKEY BAY aspo J Hennessey 9/5

We finish off this week with a trip to West Virginia for a nice little, 8 furlong allowance race. At first blush, the 1, 2, and 3 horses look doubtful, and in this case, first blush is right. Let's move on, and see what the balance of the field yields.

Even odds, pp4, Lil Groom, gets 21 days an a mediocre jockey. He turned in a 94 at 7.5f on dirt last time out, and while that wasn't good enough to win, it suggests he's in contention here. Look for him to close down the stretch.

9/5, pp 7, Carskey Bay, gets 21 days rest and a barely competent jockey. He broke his cherry at 8 with a 91 speed rating, and has been in stakes company since then. Coming down in class for this race, he still should be able to turn in a nice performance at the finish line.

4/1, pp6 Le Soleil Noir, gets 21 days and a lousy jockey. He seems to fade from the lead during the last 2 calls, and while he can occasionally shine, its hard to know when he'll have that inspired burst of speed.

Finally, we have the 7/1, pp5, Ivan Yamil, with 21 days rest and a mediocre jockey. With erratic speed ranging from the 60's through the high 80's, you can see him as a possible threat if all of the planets line up right. Even at his best, his winning time is a full second behind where the rest of the field will be.

The finish of this race, if the past history is to be believed, should be 4-7-6. With low odds for the 4 and 7, only the 6 brings any value to a bet. These picks are the most solid based on the stats, though, so while it shouldn't be much of a profit, at least it should serve as insurance change if any of my other bets go south.

S 7 $4000 total $4000

Tri 4-7-6 $1000 total $1000

Total Wagered: $5000

AFTERMATH:

Post Horse Win Place Show
7 CARSKEY BAY $5.60 $3.00 $2.10
4 LIL GROOM $2.70 $2.10
1 SIMPLY THE BEST II $7.50

Exacta: $10.80
Trifecta: $89.40

Time of race: 1:37

Again, I was hoping that the show bet on the 7 would pay a little better. Instead, I get the cursory $2.10, leaving me with $4200 for this race. Saw the 4 and 7 in play, but didn't see the 1 coming.

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1523 :     $33,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1523 :    $78,300

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $45,300

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$145,029.50

Results of Week 1523 - Bet $33,000, Received back, $78,300 - a profit of $45,300

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735

Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300

Results of Week 1446 - Bet $8,690, Received back, $7,775 - a loss of $915(see race 7112)