Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

05 October 2002 - Week 1537

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1523 showed a healthy return on investment and a bust in the stables. Next week, a slew of horses will be going, and here's to hoping I get some nice races tipped.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1537.1313

Starter Allowance ($2,000) A mile and three quarters Fast Dirt $4,900
All horses, 4 years old and up

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 38630 APPEALING SPARKY korn R Bruce 2/1
2 59431 TEDDY IN A CAN rattlesnak N Fine 3/1
3 31795 NIRVANA CHARGER buccaneer D Snow 4/1
4 43571 PUMA CLAIMING delpendude B Caldwell 2/1
5 32661 RICK'S CONTENDERS jrogue S Tate 9/2

While this isn't a race with very exciting odds for the betting window, its a short field with a long distance to run, and I think we may be able to find a few worthwhile values. Besides, we're back in W. Virginia.

Start with one of the 2/1 favorites, pp1 Appealing Sparky. He has a barely adequate jockey, and is getting 14 days rest. While this guy has turned in speed ratings in the low 70's for 12 furlong races, his 49 for a 16 furlong race raises some concerns, as does his recent propensity to fall behind after about 10 furlongs. Also, I'm not convinced that 14 days rest will prime him for a good run. Perhaps a speed rating in the 60's.

The other 2/1 favorite is the pp4, Puma Claiming, which has a good jockey and 14 days rest in the respectable delpendude's stable. 14 days won't hurt this horse, and he's experienced at this distance, including a couple of wins. This horse has to be my favorite unless something else comes along to surprise. Expect him to jump for the lead and run a race in the low to mid 70's.

3/1, pp2, Teddy in a Can, has a lousy jockey and 63 days rest. While this guy ran well at 12 furlongs in a $2000 claimer, he didn't impress when he got hurt in week 1474, and I'm not confident that this guy will be able to go the distance in good form. While stable owner rattlesnak may see something I don't, this one doesn't get a nod from me.

4/1, pp3 Nirvana Charger, has an abyssmal jockey and 21 days rest. Really -- the jockey is so bad a trained monkey would have a better chance here. This horse has shown no aptitude for anything longer than a 7 furlong race, and while his speeds were nice when going less than a mile, he still showed signs of fading after the 7th furlong. This horse doesn't get a nod from me, either.

Finally, we have the 9/2, pp5, Rick's Contenders, which has an excellent jockey and 21 days rest. Although he won his last race, which was at 14f, he did it with a 46 speed going away, and wasn't really challenged. Now, stable owner jrogue will see how he can do against a horse that can run the distance 4 seconds faster. While I don't expect this guy to win, I also don't expect him to do as poorly as his odds suggest. Stableowner delpendude previously owned this horse, and showed that this guy can run 14 with a speed rating of 69, but this horse doesn't seem to have found his level during the recent changes of owners.

There's no question that the 4 should win this race hooves down. He has the speed, ability, and intangibles that suggest he should win by a couple of lengths. After that, don't be surprised to see the 5 doing something special.

WPS 4 $4000 total $12,000

S 4 $10000 total $10,000

EX 4-5 $1000 total $1000

Total Wagered: $23,000

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                     Win         Place     Show
2 TEDDY IN A CAN         $8.70     $3.70     $3.10
4 PUMA CLAIMING                       $3.70     $2.50
5 RICK'S CONTENDERS                             $3.70

Exacta: $22.20
Trifecta: $94.80

Time of race: 3:06 3/5

Didn't see the 2 coming, but has the 4 and 5 pegged as players. For the place bet on the 4, I recovered $7400, and for my show bets I pulled back $17,500, for a total recovery here of $24,900, an overall win of $1,400 on this race. While it would have been nice to make more, at least this race puts me in the plus column, the insurance show bet worked again, and if the 4 had won, I would have made a nice little fortune.

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Race ID:1537.1905

Allowance Six furlongs Fast Dirt $6,900
Fillies and mares, 2 years old, Non-Winners of ONE within the last 6 months

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 76645 CRAFTY MISSILE skylark C Maguire 7/2
2 9929 LADY LIBERTY lgacres A Hasty 5/1
3 3104 ASKMEWHYNOT ask2 S Tippett 5/1
4 12171 KING OF FORM coker N Chamberlin 9/2
5 30794 TOUCH OF CLASS II stfvamp O Brooks 5/1
6 80247 JADE THE ROBBER sirbarton H Newsome 9/5

We move onto Iowa, where we find the 5th race also doesn't have a full card. While some folks are complaining about their inability to get horses into races, I'll note that this is another race of many I've seen this week where there could clearly be more horses entered. This race has a number of 2 year old fillies and mares, and perhaps we'll find something of value.

Favorite 9/5, pp6, Jade the Robber, has a competent jockey and 14 days rest since her only start, where she ran a 69 at 6.5f. While that's a nice speed for a 2 yr old, we don't have much more to go on, and I'd prefer to see this horse getting more than 14 days rest. Maybe a speed rating of 60+, but don't be surprised to see her huffing and puffing.

Next is 7/2, pp 1 Crafty Missile, has a lousy jockey and gets 14 days rest after a poor outing which netted a 38 speed last time out. While that may just be an aberration, or while the horse may have been held back, I still think she'll return closer to form with a speed rating in the high 50's for this race.

We then have the 9/2, pp4, King of Form, which also has a lousy jockey and 14 days rest. Her 3 races to date have encompassed a distances from 5 to 7.5, and she's come in with speeds in the mid 50's. Don't expect her to differ all that much this time.

We then have three horses with 5/1 odds. Start w/ pp2, Lady Liberty, who has an average jockey, 7 days rest, and a sentimental favorite of a name. She blew a 70 at 7 furlongs in a higher class race last time, and if it wasn't for the lack of rest, I'd expect her to shine in this race. Still, don't count her out. Speed in the 60's.

Next is the pp3, Askmewhynot, with an better than average and 35 days rest. Although this horse has been posting speed figs in the high 50's to low 60's recently, stable owner ask2 appears to be on the right track. This horse could be a surprise with the extra rest, and could put a speed up in the low 60's.

Finally, we have the pp5, Touch of Class II, with a better than average jockey and 21 days rest. Speed figures haven't been remarkable, and I don't expect anything exciting from her in this race.

So, we have the 6, 2, and 3 looking like they'll do best. I have confidence that the 6 should be in the mix, and if the 2 isn't exhausted, I expect her to also challenge. The question, of course, is whether the 2 is up to it. Well, you lays down your money, and you takes your chances.

WPS 6 $2000 total $6000

PS 2 $2000 total $4000

S 6 $5000 total $5000

Ex 6-2 $1000 total $1000

Tri 6-2-3 $1000 total $1000

Total Wagered: $ 17,000

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                             Win         Place         Show
6 JADE THE ROBBER             $5.60     $3.20         $2.20
3 ASKMEWHYNOT                              $6.80         $3.70
4 KING OF FORM                                                   $4.00

Exacta: $29.60
Trifecta: $117.90

Time of race: 1:12 2/5

Saw the 6 as I expected, just sorry that the 2 didn't do as well as I had hoped. The 3 was in the mix, and while I debate about the putting the 3 into an exacta wheel, decided against it. Still, with the 6 coming in first, I pulled back $5600, $3200, and $7700 for the show bets, for a total of $16,500 on this race. A little loss of $500 in this race, but still a winner for the day.

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1537 :     $40,000

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1537 :    $41,400

PROFIT/LOSS:                                             $1,400

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$144,829.50

Results of Week 1537 - Bet $40,000, Received back, $41,400 - a profit of $1,400

Results of Week 1530 - Bet $8,500, Received back, $6,900 - a loss of $1,600

Results of Week 1523 - Bet $33,000, Received back, $78,300 - a profit of $45,300

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735