Celebrial's Tipsheet

Celebrial's Tip Sheet

Analysis For

28 September 2002 - Week 1530

Overview

I have a personal stake in my tip sheet. I make precisely the bets I suggest in my tip sheet, so I'm taking my own advice, and backing it up with my own stable's money. Week 1523 showed a healthy return on investment and a bust in the stables. Next week, a slew of horses will be going, and here's to hoping I get some nice races tipped.

Look for this tipsheet to be up by Fridays at 5.p.m. , and very possibly earlier. My main page will tell you what races have been handicapped once this page is up. I'd like to get the page up earlier, but real life makes demands.

If you have any comments or constructive criticism about the format, please let me know. If there's a race you think I should consider handicapping, feel free to send me an email and let me know.

Race ID:1530.5315

Claiming ($125,000) A mile and one sixteenth Firm Turf $50,000
All horses, 4 years old and up, Non-Winners of THREE Lifetime

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 10114 KRISATRICAL (15) kearsarge D Evans 7/1
2 30638 IDEAL SUMMER (15) bali B Ridgle 5/2
3 31499 CAROLINA THICKET (15) vermacht N Hartel 3/1
4 35176 CANKEROUS GRIP (15) registano P Lipps 4/1
5 15602 SWELTERING PALACE(IRE) (15) cjt G Adler 5/2
6 59858 HAWAII BEAT (15) wattyman B Deary 21/1
7 59374 SADDLER DANCER (15) mrquickste B Clark 9/1

As a part of Sim Appreciation week, I volunteered to handicap the race dedicated to Supertoy7, aka Dennis. While we'll get to the tips in a minute, I want to join in expressing my appreciation to Supertoy7 for his invaluable help to me in getting a tipsheet up. Without his help and encouragement, I wouldn't be bringing you weekly tips or helping out with Race of the Week. Supertoy7 is well deserving of recognition for good spirited, prompt help and guidance to many of us, and I'm honored to give my tips for his race. Now, on with the race!

This race finds us in Victoria for a 9f turf race of upper shelf claimers. I think that extra furlong will be a telling factor in this one.

Start with the 5/2, pp2, Ideal Summer, with a barely adequate jockey and 21 days of rest. This horse is jumping up in class from a $50,000 claimer, and still hasn't overcome his tendency to drop off as he gets past 7 furlongs. While stable owner Bali has been racing him in better chosen races with better results recently, this race doesn't fit well in that pattern. 21 days should be good to this horse, but that won't be enough.. Note that while he blew a 92 at 8f last time out, most of his other outings have been in the high 70's and low 80's. While this guy could be in the mix, I don't think he'll take the wire in the lead. Peg him for a speed of about 82

Next, we have the 5/2, pp5, Sweltering Palace, with an adequate jockey and 14 days rest. He chalked up a 90 in his last race at 6f, but also ranges from the 70's to low-mid 80's at longer distances. This horse prefers the turf, and can be expected to put up a speed in the mid 80's for this race. This guy gets the edge from me, so far.

3/1, pp3, Carolina Thicket, has a good jockey and 14 days rest. He's raced just a bit below this general class before, but still has been charting harder races than either of the odds leaders, and has been turning in some nice speed figures. I'm concerned that this guy isn't getting more rest -- 21 days helps him nicely, but the recent cycle of 7 and 14 day rests aren't giving him a chance to get really primed. Figure a speed in the low 80's. As a closer, expect him to hang back a bit at first, and then make a push if he's going to come in the top three.

4/1, pp4, Cankerous Grip has a great name, an adequate jockey, and 70 days rest. His best performance was in week 1341, and he's only been dropping since then. As a 9 yr old horse, maybe that's to be expected. The long layoff always throws a bit of uncertainty into the mix, but going by the numbers, and expecting a little boost with his first race back, I'm figuring this guy to also be in the low 80's. While he can close, his best bet is to stay near the front of the pack.

7/1, pp1, Kristatrical, has an excellent jockey, and comes off 56 days rest. While his highest speed to date was an 83, there's something unspoken which makes me like this horse's chances. He's been close to this class before, has won a 100k claimer at 9.5 two races back, and I think he can challenge if the jockey drives him for the lead from the get go. Don't be surprised to see an 84.

9/1, pp7, Sadler Dancer, has a miserable jockey and 14 days rest. He's run mostly on dirt, showed slight increase on his last race which was on turf, but for the most part, he doesn't have the oomph to finish a 9 furlong race in the lead.

Our final entry is the 21/1, pp6 Hawaii beat. Average jockey, 14 days rest, and he only has 3 races under his saddle. His speed is in the 70's, and he falls behind around 8 furlongs. While this guy is improving, don't expect him to pull an upset.

By a nose or two, the 5 gets my nod, with the 1 figuring to do something in the top three. While the odds here aren't as high as I'd like, we should be able to make some money.

WPS 5 $2000 total $6000

S 1 $2000 total $2000

Exacta 5-1 $500 total $500

Total wagered: $8,500

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                                 Win         Place         Show
1     KRISATRICAL                     $16.00     $7.50         $4.10
3     CAROLINA THICKET                         $4.00         $3.40
5     SWELTERING PALACE(IRE)                                $2.80

Exacta: $80.90
Trifecta: $199.10

Time of race: 1:44 2/5

I knew there was something about the 1 that I liked. While my payouts ($2800 for show bet on the 5 and $4100 for a show bet on the 1), turned in a loss of $1600 for this race, I'm not sad to see the 1 come in first. The 3 stalked from behind and came charging forward. The only surprising thing here was the 5 not making a better showing.

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Race ID:1530.6715

-- Owner Restricted Allowance Seven furlongs Firm Turf $50,000
All horses, 3 years old and up -- RESTRICTED TO PARTICULAR OWNERS

PP Horse ID Horse Owner Jockey Odds
1 70063 SLOPPY OLIVER cave L Deacon 69/1
2 56423 EMBLEM BURNING oncloud9 S Ross 42/1
3 18713 SULTRY CHOICE oncloud9 J Ohlmann 44/1
4 62946 ZERO STUD cave D Kanski 99/1
5 71323 UNBRIDLED GALA irishfarms B J Bergen 43/1
6 27388 NATURAL WEDDING irishfarms T Bates 20/1
7 60403 COLONEL SPOON irishfarms N Lawless 5/1
8 51538 UNJUST HUSSEY showcase D Tyrrell 5/1
9 39501 FT. LAUDERDALE NET thcorp3 A Tazdevil 35/1
10 8490 CAPYOS showcase S Pinkston 11/1
11 10508 UNJUST HIPPO thcorp3 D Manuel 96/1
12 17303 EXETER POISON saddleup D Hall 99/1
13 28426 AUGUST SQUAW cloud9farm S Maynard 70/1
14 78338 LOUIS MAP thcorp3 D Hamblin 38/1
15 49146 SENIOR HASTY saddleup P Wildey 39/1
16 3185 CANNY SLEW(GB) showcase S Elswick 5/2
17 45919 BUTTHEAD HAM arcticboy D Fendlay Jr. 3/1
18 62930 BEST LULU saddleup K Silpa 41/1
19 47930 SORE BEER cloud9farm S Shimko 99/1
20 20403 JUNIOR SMOOTH thcorp3 D Rigdon 37/1

As this is Sim Appreciation week, I've chosen this race to tip as a way of saying "Thanks" to my sister, who introduced me to this game. Her stable, Irishfarms, has several horses entered into this one, but what intrigues me is the spread of odds in this massive field.

I will note in advance, that while I'll do my best to review the horses which have actually run before, I make it a policy to not bet on races where we have horses in their first race. The whole point of handicapping is use the past record to predict the outcome. While some people can look at a pedigree and figure out where a horse is going to do well, I don't pretend to have that power.

Going through the list in order, I'll point out factoids that interest me.

Start with the 5. Improving, but a long layoff since week 1460. Might be able to do in the high 70's.

The 6 had an off race last outing, but put up two speeds in the 80's, bracketing the distance here. Could be in play.

The 7 is a favorite, and while his speed has danced in the mid 80's on several outings, he's primarily a dirt horse that would like 6. Will be a factor, but not convinced he'll do better than low 80's.

The 8 looks stronger. Had a speed of 93 at 6.5f, and lost by a head. While he may not repeat that performance, look for him to be in mid-high 80's.

The 10 is not as strong. Throw out that marathon 2 races back, and he's been showing a pattern of slow decline from a 91 speed a few weeks back. While better than many other horses, not enough to win. Speed of about 77.

Expect the 16, another favorite, to be in the mix. Hard for me to get a read on how fast he'll go this week, but I'm confident it will be in the 80's. I wouldn't be surprised if he won, either.

The 17 is a killer at 6.5f, but this race is a bit longer. Excellent jockey, 35 days rest. This horse is the best I've seen yet.

While there are a lot of untested horses which could really spoil a handicapper's day, the 17 is the clear favorite. After that, I like the 8 and 16. While I thought about violating my rule on not betting when untested horses are in the race, the odds just don't make it worth the risk for me.

Look for a 17-16-8 finish.

Total Wagered: $0

AFTERMATH:

Post     Horse                                             Win         Place         Show
17     BUTTHEAD HAM                         $8.60         $4.40         $4.00
5     UNBRIDLED GALA                                         $32.30        $16.40
7     COLONEL SPOON                                                             $5.50

Exacta: $406.90
Trifecta: $2319.10

Time of race: 1:23 3/5

The 17 shined, as expected, and the 16 came in 4th. The layoff must have helped the 5, and 7 did better than I expected, so kudos to my sister, owner of both the place and show horse here, for seeing what I and the oddsmakers didn't. While the unraced horses didn't do better than 6th in this race, and while I could have made a nice profit with a WPS on the 17, I still don't have regrets about not laying a bet down on this one. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

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TOTAL WAGERED FOR WEEK 1530 :     $8,500

TOTAL RECOUPED FOR WEEK 1530 :    $6,900

PROFIT/LOSS:                                            -$1,600

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS TO DATE:            +$143,429.50

Results of Week 1530 - Bet $8,500, Received back, $6,900 - a loss of $1,600

Results of Week 1523 - Bet $33,000, Received back, $78,300 - a profit of $45,300

Results of Week 1516 - Bet $32,000, Received back, $99,400 - a profit of $67,400

NO TIPS MADE FOR WEEK 1509

Results of Week 1502 - Bet $17,500, Received back, $51,800 - a profit of $34,300

Results of Week 1495 - Bet $23,000, Received back, $27,300 - a profit of $4,300

Results of Week 1488 - Bet $42,900, Received back, $66,475 - a profit of $23,675

Results of Week 1481 - Bet $27,000, Received back, $31,000 - a profit of $4,000

Results of Week 1474 - Bet $31,000, Received back, $28,600 - a loss of $2,400

Results of Week 1467 - Bet $20,600, Received back, $17,450 - a loss of $3,150

Results of Week 1460 - Bet $5,150, Received back, $2,415 - a loss of $2,735

Results of Week 1453 - Bet $3,080, Received back, $780 - a loss of $2,300