Through the next several months I will be adding in some
Kentucky Derby “Trends of the Winners”. While I will not be unveiling my entire
bag of tricks, I will be listing and explaining many. Some were spotted and publicized
by others. Some of those I have evolved or tweaked a bit to fit my thoughts
better. Many, many are original to myself. Some of these were publicized in one
of my brother’s articles in The Daily Racing Form – Kentucky Derby 1999 issue,
so I will now not have a problem publicizing those. All of those I let him
publish are really “public domain” trends. They are there for any one to spot
and use. I simply had the awesome advantage of obtaining through my brother
copies of the Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby back to 1955. I spent
the next several days’ play “cut / paste / copy” making a “cheat sheet” of just
the PP’s of the winners. I carried this around for a long time, and when bored
would pull it out and look for common things of the winners. It was funny how
after I would reach a point for a long time when I would think I could not
possibly discern any new trend, something would be a spark that would lead to
“hey I wonder”, and I would spot a new one.
There are two sides of Kentucky Derby Trends. First and most
importantly it must be a high percentage of winners meeting the criteria. The
flip side is that you would like to see at least one
Dosage Trends
1. Chef-de-race in the first two generations:
2. Minimum of 16 Total Points in Dosage Profile:
3. Minimum of 3 Points Brilliant in Dosage Profile:
4. Minimum of 2 Points Intermediate in Dosage Profile:
5. Minimum of 4 Points Classic in Dosage Profile:
6. Dosage Index of 4.00 or less:
Other "Breeding" Trends
7. Kentucky Breds are hard to beat:
8. Not a Colt? Not very likely then:
Handicapping Trends
10. Minimum number of tracks raced at when Two Years Old.