Minimum Brilliant Points Trend

 

There is trend here, just a matter of picking which of the three possible trends to use? Looking at the Brilliant Dosage Points of Kentucky Derby winners since 1950 it is clear that you can formulate a trend around a minimum. There are three ways to pick a trend depending on what it is you would like to emphasize? A trend that has the higher success percentage, or lean more towards a trend which will eliminate more potential runners?

 

Since 1950, the Kentucky Derby winner’s Brilliant points:

 

(1.) The Kentucky Derby winner had at least 4 points Brilliant 45 out of 52 times for a 87% success rate.

 

(2.) The Kentucky Derby winner had at least 3 points Brilliant 47 out of 52 times for a 90% success rate.

 

(3.) The Kentucky Derby winner had at least 2 points Brilliant 51 out of 52 times for a 98% success rate.

 

So, I will choose the middle of the road here. A nice compromise taking 3 points Brilliant minimum gives you a 90% success rate, while eliminating a lot more runners with three points Brillant verses two points minimum Brilliant.

 

Taking the Dosage Method in it’s original context, this is not surprising. A Kentucky Derby winner needs a minimum amount of “Brilliance”. Brilliance in the original context of a minimum amount of early maturity (thus the necessary demonstrated racing at two years old) along with a minimum amount of speed is possessed by the horse wearing the roses on the first Saturday in May.