Minimum Tracks Raced At When Two Years Old Trend

 

While having raced at two years old, and then applying a minimum amount of starts is something fairly obvious to any handicapper and commonly talked about when looking into the future for the next Kentucky Derby winner, applying a minimum amount of tracks raced at while a Juvenile is not a common Trend. This is the other early handicapping trend I have developed and I am publicizing here for general consumption.

 

Looking at the last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby dating back to 1950 the winner ran at two or more tracks 46 times (88%). Again obviously FUSAICHI PEGASUS bucks this trend with only one race, with SILVER CHARM in 1997 being the other recent exception thanks to an awesome training job by Bob Baffert. The other exceptions were SEATTLE SLEW in 1977, KUAI KING in 1966, LUCKY DEBONAIR in 1965, and TIM TAM in 1958.

 

The Kentucky Derby draws on horses running “campaigns” which culminate running at Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky. While some of the starters may have raced in their careers, all starters will be shipping in for the race. It is only a matter of how long of a lay off starters have from their last Derby prep race else where, and how close to the race they ship in. There also is a slight other angle of Keenland being rather close to Churchill Downs. While I like horses to run in the Blue Grass at Keenland for their final prep race, I strongly prefer horses that stable at Churchill Downs and ship over for the race. One step worse even are the occasional starter who stables at Keenland and works there, however does not even run in the Blue Grass.

 

Kentucky Derby horses must handle different racing surfaces. Shipping is how you experience multiple surfaces, and demonstrating success on different surfaces is a definite must for any possible Kentucky Derby contender.

 

The Kentucky Derby requires the demanding Thoroughbred trait of being able to “ship well”. Learning about this “ship and race” world they must live in as top quality Thoroughbreds at two is critically important. Kentucky Derby winner’s shippers are successful after having experienced shipping at least once as a two year old before the demanding season of the Triple Crown Trail.