Minimum Classic Points Trend

Since 1950 there has only been three winners of the Kentucky Derby with less than 4 points Classic in their Dosage Profile for a trend percentage of 94%. This does not seem that surprising to any serious student of Dosage, that there is a magical minimum amount of "Class" for winners of America's most Classic race.

This minimum Classic points now tidies up things nicely. Looking at the previous 50 runnings of the Kentucky Derby we have 45 of 50 (90%) with 3 or more Brilliant, 45 of 50 (90%) with 2 or more Intermediate, and 47 of 50 (94%) with 4 or more Classic points. All three “Trends” running 90% or higher! Using these "Minimums" that hold true to a very high percentage of Kentucky Derby winners, we get a "Minimum Dosage Profile" for a Kentucky Derby winner of:

(3 - 2 - 4 - 0 - 0) For a Dosage Index of 3.50

While the guideline used for the Dosage Index limit is 4.00, this 3.50 composite Dosage Index reflects a lower boundary to indicate what is really a more practical time to begin showing concern that a pedigree may fit the accepted guideline, however the pedigree is still a questionable Kentucky Derby winning pedigree. A runner with a Dosage Index of 3.50 or higher, who fails on one or more of these "minimum" categorical points of 3 Brilliant, 2 Intermediate, 4 Classic is really suspect to be a Kentucky Derby winner.

Combining this categorical minimums, with the trend of a total Dosage Profile points of 16, provides a new, very powerful way to screen perspective Derby runners. This is something that can be used from BEFORE the birth of a Thoroughbred up-to the Kentucky Derby, and requires no calculation, just a simple look.