Dosage Index of 4.00 or Less – It All Started Here!

 

The first “trend” that really started my quest for the holy Kentucky Derby 'winning trend' was a Dosage Index of 4.00 or less which was publicized in The Daily Racing Form by Leon Rasmussen. The first spark of trends came really came from the 1973 Kentucky Derby Press Book I inherited from my brother. On the back it listed the huge winning percentage of Kentucky breds. Kentucky breds had won 76 of the 98 runnings, or 78%. While that trend is very interesting, and a definite plus, it was hardly enough of an impetus to start trying to nail down the winner with it. The Dosage Index however, when it was still on a great roll, seemed extremely intriguing once you got by the hype and really studied up on what the Dosage Method was really all about. Dr. Roman’s quantification via his numbers scheme, while not exactly holding fully true to the full Dosage Method concept, did provide an amazing vehicle to reduce the Dosage theories to a single relevant number to apply to Classic Distance races.

 

Since 1950 there have only been three Kentucky Derby winners with a Dosage Index over 4.00 for a 94% winning percentage. Only exceptions were the recent winners CHARISMATIC (1999), REAL QUIET (1998), and STRIKE THE GOLD (1991).

 

Undertaking any serious discussion of Dosage requires sighting the disclaimer of the flaw in the "numbers". Due to the  “evolving” nature of the chef-de-race list, Dosage numbers are a moving target.  Analysis is limited to the current list of chef-de-race sires. From one day after the Kentucky Derby all the way to many years after the Dosage pedigree of a runner may change due to the addition of a sire in his four generation pedigree to chef-de-race list. When undertaking a discussion of the Dr. Roman points method the Dosage numbers also requires the disclaimer regarding the categorization of the chef on the list. This categorization by Dr. Roman has morphed to a pure “numbers” basis. The original Dosage Method was as much Thoroughbred “trait” based in attempting to describe the Thoroughbred chef-de-race contributes as it was “speed vs. stamina” based. The Dosage Method also emphasized along with the speed trait there is “early maturity” or Brilliance, and with stamina comes “late maturity”. The Intermediate points were the great "mixer" points, where these select few within a select few sires you could not have enough of them in a 4X4 pedigree. The Stout or Solid sires passed an affinity for the Turf. I have some strong personal disagreements with the current categorization status of some sires driven by "points" rather than "traits". This is something I will elaborate on in separate discussions on the Doctor Dosage web site at a future date.

 

So, while looking at a Dosage Index of 4.00 and lower, it is critical for any serious handicapper to take the time to evaluate the “current status” of chef’s in the horses four generation pedigree. Primarily you are looking for any of those “potential” chef-de-race sires that just have not been named yet, but are very likely. STORM CAT would be a good current example of a sire to take note of when looking at a potential Derby starters Dosage Profile and Dosage Index. Especially if the total Dosage Points is on the lower side you will want to give the pedigree a closer look. If you are one of the more serious Dosage students, then you will also want to take into account any categorization you may be inclined to disagree with.

 

To be even more thorough, it is reasonable to take a look at the female side of things also. This is not something I put major emphasis on, however in recent years the female side of things of one runner made me feel a bit more confident. This would be the Dosage Index borderline THUNDER GULCH (4.00) winner of the 1995 renewal. While his DI fits, anything reaching the mid 3’s to 4.00 is a bit scary for the mile and a quarter. THUNDER GULCH was out of a very classy, classic distance winning mare. Having a One Mile and One Half Stakes winning mother pointed to him really possessing a more Derby suited pedigree then his 4.00 DI indicated.

 

Others also try to use a Center of Distribution (CD) of 1.25 or lower. This is totally redundant in this Dosage students eyes. You can look for a very, very long time to find a horse that has a Dosage Index UNDER 4.00 but then fails by having a Center of Distribution over 1.25. A potential Derby horse is either suited or not by a DI or 4.00 or less.