The pinnacle of American
Thoroughbred racing is the Kentucky Derby. Following behind the Run for the
Roses, the Breeders’ Cup races are the next great American Thoroughbred classic
tests. The Breeders’ Cup has existed long enough now to establish enough
history to start looking for possible significant trends.
A very simple, reasonable
theory for a potential for Classic Thoroughbred greatness is possessing of at
least one chef-de-race close up in the first two generations of their pedigree.
That is to say either they are by a chef-de-race, or one of the two grand
fathers are of such major influence to the Thoroughbred breed to have been
awarded status as chef-de-race or “head of breed”.
While this is by no means a
“throw them out” type of trend, it is never the less a very quick (for those of
us who pretty much know the chef’s by heart) reasonable significant plus for a
horse who fits the trend, and a possible knock if they do not. A definite
closer examination is called for if a horse does not meet this criteria before
ever really considering the horse for top class races. There are some near
obvious exceptions. With the extreme variance as the Thoroughbred exists today,
the spectrum runs from these exceptions to the near impossible to consider for
top class victories. The exceptions will be discussed more closely after some
specifics on this trend follow next.
There now have been 121
Breeders’ Cup races. Of these 106 representing 87% contained a chef-de-race
in the first two generations of their pedigree. Last year was an exceptionally
contrary year with three exceptions pulling the percentage down a little. Two
of these exceptions had RELAUNCH in their first two generations, and the other
was by KY Derby and Belmont winner THUNDER GULCH. It is very early in THUNDER
GULCH’S sire career, however he is off to a very impressive start. With the
superior stout female he was out of, it would not be a surprise to this
pedigree student if he some day were to prove a chef-de-race.
It is also interesting to
note that in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, one of only two true “Classic” races on
the Breeders’ Cup card, all 15 of 17 winners that have at least one
chef-de-race in the first two generations also contain some Classic chef-de-race
influence.
Of the last 52 runnings of
the Kentucky
Derby the winners have a chef-de-race in the first two generations 45
times, or 87% of them meeting this trend. Again last year was a trend breaker bringing
the number down a bit.
So, for all of the Breeders’
Cup races ever run, and ever Kentucky Derby since 1950 the winner had at least
one chef-de-race in the first two generations 89% of the time! Anything in
Thoroughbred racing that points to the success ninety percent of the time is
worth throwing in your handicapping “bag of tricks”.
Exceptions:
The pitfall of the Dosage
Method is “variance” due to continual evolvement. Some of the counted “winners”
who meet the criteria now, did not at the time they raced. It is interesting to
look through the winners though trying to find where some of the more recently
named chef-de-races flipped the switch for a horse from failing the trend to
meeting it. Most that contain one of these newly crowned sires already met the
criteria with one or both of the other two males in the first two generations.
So, trying to anticipate who
the next chef-de-race’s might be, as well as possibly keeping a small list of
sires who were long since passed over for the magic chef-de-race list, but
might really be a “head of breed” or significant individual influence to the
Thoroughbred breed is not a bad idea.
One such sire who has not
been named, and is starting to progress towards passed over status is RELAUNCH.
There is no question in my mind he is a chef-de-race. Except for the case of
interest with a Classic influence for horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, for
the trend under discussion here the typology of the chef-de-race is moot. So,
in my mind from hence forth RELAUNCH will permit a horse to really meet this
trend.
Why should RELAUNCH be a
chef-de-race? This starts towards some of the core problems I have with the
Dosage Method in its recent evolvement. The Dosage Method was not a pure
numbers game. It was not purely speed to stamina. It was just as much the
“traits” of the breed. Before there were even these concepts of traits the
Dosage Method there was one fundamental major factor for the Thoroughbred the
sire line. RELAUNCH is the clear sire that will thankfully keep at least one of
the non Eclipse sire lines going. The sire line to which I refer:
Goldophin
Arabian (1724)… Matchem (1748)…
The MATHCEM line will live
on thanks to the major successful influence of RELAUNCH. It is of personal
gratification that this line will live on through the great FAIR PLAY / MAN
O’WAR line.
Others that recently seem
pointed to chef-de-race status would be sires like STORM CAT and or his sire
STORM BIRD, UNBRIDLED, are horses who are extremely successful sires who have
produced many top class winners, and are sires of sires.