Minimum Starts at Two Years Old Trend

There are very few handicapping Kentucky Derby Trends which you can use months in advance to rate possible contenders. This first which can be used is a candidate racing at Two Years Old.  When looking at this handicapping Trend you must establish some minimum amount of races for the Trend “bar”. Looking at last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby dating back to 1950 the 45 of the 52 winners (87%) raced 3 or more times at Two. Using 2 or more starts as the measuring bar we see 49 of the 52 (94%) having hit the track at least twice at Two.

Unfortunately the last two Kentucky Derby renewals have bucked this trend. Last years winner MONARCHOS only had two starts while a Juvenile, and the year before FUSAICHI PEGASUS really bucked the trend having only hit the track once at two. The other exceptions were GRINDSTONE in the 1996 Derby with two starts at two, WINNING COLORS in 1988 with two starts at two, then way back to MAJESTIC PRINCE in 1969 with two starts and two, and LUCKY DEBONAIR in 1965 and TIM TAM in 1958 both only started once when Juveniles.

Despite the recent exceptions, this is still a very reasonable Kentucky Derby Trend running in the ninety percentile area depending on using one or two starts as the rule. It is also the true first handicapping trend you can apply to the search for the next winner of the Run for the Roses.