Total Dosage Points of 16 or Higher – Here is a NEW one for you!

This is the second of my trends I am now letting out of the bag. This trend is one that while I have never seen anyone list it as a Kentucky Derby trend (or as any major handicapping edge for that matter), it is a simple common sense public domain knowledge thing. Thus no compelling reason to keep it as one of my hidden tools.

Since 1950 there has only been ONE Kentucky Derby winner who had less than 16 total Dosage Points in their four generation Dosage Profile. That one exception was MIDDLEGROUND the 1950 winner! So for the last 52 runnings 98% of the winners had at least 16 Dosage Points. If you want to just consider the last 50 runnings you are looking at a 100% winners trend!

This does not seem all that startling. Just as the trend of having a chef-de-race in the first two generations is a very positive factor, it is not surprising there is a minimum amount of “top” blood required in a Kentucky Derby winners four generation pedigree. A Kentucky Derby winner you would expect to posses at least 16 total points, and most likely have a chef-de-race in the first two generations. While there is overlap here, since a chef-de-race in the first two generations yields 16 points itself if the horse is lucky enough to be by a chef-de-race. One grandfather a chef-de-race gives you 8 points, and both grandfathers give you 16.

Again note though that this trend is heavily reliant on the timely naming of a chef-de-race to his proper status. The nice thing about this combination of these two trends is that both are completely independent of the categorization of any chef-de-race.