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Climate - Climate change in the Caribbean

Predicted changes

In the Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change some of the global climate simulations are summarized also from the Caribbean point of view. These simulations were made using near identical scenario of 1% per year growth in greenhouse gas concentrations after 1990. The simulations project 2.5 - 3.0 degrees annual mean temperature increase, 0.5 - 7 percentage smaller annual mean precipitation in the Caribbean for the 2080s. The magnitude of the projected warming is considerable and could substantially impact the islands and coasts of the Caribbean sea. The projected decline in precipitation suggests possibility of reduced water availability. 

Further analysis of the simulations suggest that the frequency of extreme temperatures during the summer is likely to be higher in the Caribbean. Similarly, although the models project a lesser number of annual rainy days, an increase in the daily intensity of precipitation is also projected. This suggests an increase in the probability of occurrence of more frequent droughts, as well as floods in the Caribbean.

There is no consensus regarding the conclusions of studies related to the behavior of hurricanes in a warmer world. There are studies that have found no significant change in hurricane frequency or geographical extent. Other studies, nevertheless, have reported a possible increase of approximately 10-20 % in intensity of tropical cyclones under enhanced CO₂ conditions. For further details and original sources, see the Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report.

There is an ongoing effort by the MACC project in cooperation with several institutes in the region to improve the usability of the global climate simulations by making additional simulations with finer resolutions (down to 25 km) for the Caribbean. This will in the near future give more information about the likely climate change in the Caribbean and facilitate the drawing of the best adaptation options for the region. 

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