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Climate - Climate change in the Caribbean

Climate modeling and prediction

There are numerous components, factors, and feedbacks in the climate system. This makes prediction of an accurate response to a change in one of the components difficult. The tool, that has been developed to predict the climate, is modeling. Climate modeling depend heavily on our understanding how the various sub-systems work and how they interact. Great deal of computing power, existing records (direct instrumental data from observations or reconstructed data through indirect proxies) of past climates on one hand and different emission scenarios of the future on the other hand are needed as well. All this data, as well as loads of other factors, are fed into climate models to study the past and predict the future climate.

Current climate models predict a global warming of about 1.4 - 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. These projections are based on a wide range of assumptions about the main forces driving future emissions (such as population growth and technological change) but do not assume any climate change policies for reducing emissions. Even a 1.4 °C rise would be larger than any century-time-scale trend for the past 10,000 years. These projections take into account the effects of aerosols and the delaying effect of the oceans.

Actually, you can yourself take part in climate modeling. Connect to the web site of Climateprediction.net and read more!

The WMO has made available a CLIPS curriculum: introductory level course material on climate information and prediction.

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