2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics: Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Updated: Mar. 29, 2009 by TruthIsAll

 

Part I: Analytic Summary

 

(* indicates recent update)

 

Introduction

Summary Overview

The 2000 Election

Gore won by 3 million more votes than the 540,000 official total; Florida uncounted votes by county

Smoking Gun: The Final National Exit Poll

Voted in 2000 – preliminary, final, adjusted - sensitivity analysis

The Democratic Underground “Game” thread

Impossible/ feasible NEP weights, implausible vote shares, rBr -defection rates - false recall

       Implausible Gore 2000 Voter Turnout/Defection scenarios required to match the recorded vote.

 

 

State and National Pre-Election Polls

 

The 2004 Election Model: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Final State polls- 18 National polls –undecided voters- EV win probabilities - sensitivity analysis

National Polling Trend

18 Final Polls – Correlation of monthly polls vs. Bush approval rating

State Polling Trend

Average- weighted average- monthly/weekly projections - Zogby battleground polls

 

State Exit Polls

 

State Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

State vs. NEP- Gender- Voted2k- True Vote Models

Interactive Election Simulation

WPE, GEO, Composite estimates

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

Conservative Scenario Analysis *

True Vote Sensitivity analysis based on two factors: Nader 2000 and New voter share

Regional Analysis

Exit Poll MoE exceeded in 29 states for Bush

Red-shift vs. Swing

Battleground vs. Red states – Composite (12:22am) vs. WPE-adjusted exit polls

Exit Poll Response Optimization

Excel Solver – True Vote- 1250 precincts by partisanship, 5 location-size groups, states by partisanship

State Deviations by Voting Method

Deviations based on percentage voting machine/method mix applied to WPE-based Exit Poll discrepancies

 

National Exit Poll

 

Timeline

Demographic weights- vote shares- sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

Effect of changes in demographic vote shares on Kerry’s national vote

New Voters

2000/2004 first-time and other new voters – 16m recorded Bush voter increase from 2000

True Vote Model

Base case - Bush vs. Gore 2000 voter turnout- sensitivity analysis - probabilities

 

Election Fraud Analysis

 

The Bush Urban Legend

Implausible urban and suburban vote shares

2000-2004 Exit Poll analysis (Voted in 2000; Location-size)

Bush Approval Ratings *

Correlation with monthly Pre-election polls; weights and vote shares adjusted to match the recorded vote

When Decided *

Weights and vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote

Party ID *

Weights and vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote

The Gender Demographic *

Implausible increase in Bush’s share of women voters from 2000 to 2004

Did Kerry Win More Than 360 Electoral Votes?

State adjustments: Gore 2000 uncounted votes, Kerry share of Nader and new voters

Uncounted and Switched Votes

True Vote Model- uncounted/ switched votes by state- electoral vote effect

Reconciling the Final 5 Million Vote Anomaly

Difference in vote share between the initial 117m and final 5m votes; exit poll vs. late vote correlation

 

True Vote Analysis: Models, Counties, Machines

 

County Vote Database (2000-2004)

Database filtering for absolute and percent changes by state, county, voting method 

Florida  *

Ohio *

New York

California

Oregon

 

Historical Election Analysis

 

 

The 2006 Midterms

 

Summary Analysis

Quantifying the risk- likely fraud contests- Democratic Tsunami – Generic polls- projections

Generic 120-Poll Trend vs. 7:07pm and Final Exit Poll

Demographics- Linear Regression - NEP Timeline- probabilities

Uncounted and Switched Votes

CBS reported state votes-Wikipedia vote count

Generic 120-Poll Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average

Allocating undecided voters- Final 10 polls- probabilities

 

Election Models (Excel)

 

The Math: Probability and Statistics

 

 

 

Part II:  Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

 

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ (Mark Lindeman)

The Pre-Election Polls

The "Rules": Did They Favor Kerry?

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

Comparing 2004 to 2000

Miscellaneous

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Part I: Analytic Summary

 

Introduction

 

Part I is a comprehensive statistical analysis of the 2004 and 2006 elections. In 2000, Al Gore won by several million more than his recorded 540,000 vote margin. In 2004, John Kerry actually won by 8-10 million votes. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the landslide was denied; they did much better than the official results indicate. And the True Vote does not include the disenfranchised, the great majority of whom are Democratic minority voters.

 

Part II contains the original “TruthIsAll FAQ” with my responses included. The author of the FAQ, Mark Lindeman, has tried to debunk the work of independent analysts who maintain that pre-election and exit polls are powerful statistical evidence that Kerry won handily and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied.

 

Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. The Nov.1, 2004 Election Model, based on the final state and 18 national pre-election polls, projected Kerry as the 51.8-48.2% winner of the two-party vote. His expected 337 electoral vote was calculated as the average of a 5000 election-trial Monte Carlo simulation.  The projection model was confirmed by the state and national exit polls.  Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

 

Edison-Mitofsky provided four state exit poll measures. Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:

1) WPE          51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)

2) GEO          51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)

3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)

4) Final          48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)

 

WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) measure. It was based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all state precincts which were polled. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?

 

Some say that exit polls are not designed to predict the True Vote but to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics.

 

Kerry also had a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed.  Of course, Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents) which was posted at 2pm the day after the election. The Final NEP was forced to match the Recorded Vote count with impossible weights and implausible vote shares, so why should we believe it?

 

A number of Excel models were developed to calculate the True Vote. They confirm massive documented evidence that the elections were severely compromised by a combination of uncounted and miscounted votes. Essential model inputs include state and national recorded votes, pre-election and exit polls, Census total votes cast and mortality rates. Links are provided for users who can enter their own assumptions and view a “sensitivity analysis” of resulting state and national vote shares and margins. The scenarios are displayed in numeric tables and charts.

 

The Election Calculator and Interactive Election Simulation models determined that Kerry probably did 1-2% better than the exit polls indicate.

 

The  Election Calculator is an Excel model for analyzing 1988-2004 elections. Users can override the pre-set default assumptions for voter mortality, uncounted vote rates, prior election voter turnout and vote shares of prior and new voters. The base case scenario indicates that Kerry won by nearly 10 million votes with a 53.2-45.4% vote share.  Interested readers can download the model, review the base case scenario and then enter their own assumptions.Sensitivity analysis tables provide an instant view of vote shares over a range of input assumption scenarios.

 

The Interactive 2004 Election Simulation Model  (also Excel) enables users to run simulations based on state and national pre-election and exit polls.State exit poll vote shares are based on the following user options: 1) WPE, 2) Best GEO and 3) Composite (12:22am).  The National Exit poll data includes the 12:22am update and the 2pm Final.  The only pre-election model assumption is Kerry’s projected share of Undecided Voters. The only state exit poll inputs are the method (1, 2, or 3) and assumed cluster effect. A Monte Carlo simulation consisting of 200 election trials generates both the projected popular and expected electoral vote. The probability of Kerry winning the election is the percentage of trials in which Kerry received at least 270 EV. Additional model analysis includes National Exit Poll timeline, Gender vote, exit poll response optimizer, Census data and the Ohio exit poll.

 

In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll update (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.

 

Mark has posted on the Democratic Underground as "On the Other Hand", on Daily KOS as “Hudson Valley Mark” and numerous other forums. The TruthIsAll.pdf contains Nov. 1 2004 Election Model reports, analysis, graphs, methodology, links. I have posted on Democratic Underground, Progressive Independent, Thom Hartmann, Mark C. Miller, Brad Blog, Buzz Flash, RFK Jr., Huffington Post, Democrats.com and the Smirking Chimp.

 

 

Summary Overview

 

Dec.12, 2000 is a day that will live in infamy. Bush needed the help of five right-wing Republicans on the Supreme Court to stop the recount in Florida and enable him to steal the election. There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the 2004 election. State and national pre-election and exit polls pointed to a Kerry victory. Those who claim that Bush won fair and square are relentless in their attempts to thrash polling analyses which suggest that fraud occurred. Since the media will not release tell-tale precinct-level data, analysts must rely on publicly available polling data. And they have determined that the polls provide powerful statistical evidence of fraud.  “Voter fraud” has been shown to be a non-existent distraction from the evidence of massive “election fraud”. Voters don’t fix elections, corrupt officials do.  The corporate media was quick to dismiss the statistical polling analyses and claims of election fraud by “spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers” as another left-wing conspiracy theory.

 

This is what Richard Morin , a Washington Post staff writer, wrote on Thursday, November 4, 2004:

“An Election Day filled with unexpected twists ended with a familiar question: What went wrong with the network exit polls? In two previous national elections, the exit polls had behaved badly. Premature calls by the networks in Florida led to a congressional investigation in 2000. Two years later, a computer meltdown resulted in no release of data on Election Day…. Results based on the first few rounds of interviewing are usually only approximations of the final vote. Printouts warn that estimates of each candidate's support are unreliable and not for on-air use.….That is why the early leaks anger Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducted Tuesday's exit poll with Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press…. After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics”.

 

The media never considered the possibility that the votes may have been miscounted and that the exit polls were essentially correct. They just took it for granted that the vote count was accurate (i.e. the election was fraud-free). After all, isn’t that why the exit poll results are always adjusted to match the vote count? Of course, they never did an analysis which would have shown that the adjusted Final NEP weights were impossible and that the adjusted vote shares were implausible.  And they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the election was stolen.  

 

A dwindling number of naysayers continue to argue that the exhaustive statistical analysis of 2004 pre-election and exit polls by a number of independent researchers does not provide convincing evidence that the election was stolen. Their “case” consists of faith-based theories, factual avoidance, misstatements and misrepresentations. And they cannot reconcile the many statistical anomalies which all point to massive fraud.  Some of their “explanations” include the following: Kerry voters were more likely to respond to exit pollsters; exit poll interviewers sought out Kerry voters; over 7% of returning Gore voters told the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000; pre-election and exit polls are not pure random samples; exit polls are not designed to detect fraud in the United States; early exit poll results overstated Kerry’s vote; women voted early and Republicans voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry. None are supported by factual data and all have been refuted.

 

Uncounted Votes

In every election, millions of mostly Democratic votes are never counted – and are a significant contribution to the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, approximately 5 million votes were never counted. Since they were from heavily democratic minority districts, if Gore won 75% his true margin was close to 3 million votes - not the 540,000 recorded. And that does not include the very real possibility that a certain percentage of recorded Gore votes were switched to Bush.  The 2000 election was not even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes – before the recount was aborted. But 185,000 spoiled (under and over-punched) ballots were never counted.  Since approximately 65% of them were intended for Gore, he actually won the state by at least 60,000 votes.

According to the U.S. Census, 125.7 million votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m and 3.4m were uncounted. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. Therefore there is a 97.5% probability that at least 125 million cast votes. According to detailed information provided by investigative reporter Greg Palast, 3.006m votes cast were never counted. They were comprised of 1.389m spoiled ballots, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee. The 0.40 million (0.31%) discrepancy between the Census and Palast matches the Census MoE.

 

First-time Voters

They claimed that the vaunted 2004 Republican GOTV campaign brought Bush millions of new Christian fundamentalist votes. But they failed to note that since 1992, according to the National Exit Poll, the Democrats won first-time voters by a 14% average margin. Ruy Teixeira wrote about it in The Emerging Democratic Majority.   Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable voter registration  and GOTV effort. In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest Republican areas.

 

Bush Approval

They dismissed the significance of the Bush 48.5% approval rating on Election Day. But historically, incumbents with approval below 50% lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). The near-perfect 0.87 correlation  between Bush’s monthly approval rating and average national poll is further evidence. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%. The Final Exit Poll forced a bogus 53% Bush approval weighting to in order to match the vote count.

 

The Urban Legend

They can’t explain The Urban Legend myth: How did Bush gain vote share in heavily Democratic urban locations, yet lose share in highly Republican small towns and rural areas?  An analysis of the 2000 and 2004 NEP location-size demographic shows a 9% increase in the Bush share of the heavily Democratic urban vote and a 3% decline in share of the heavily Republican small town and rural voter. And how did he manage a 3% increase in the suburbs which has been trending Democratic in recent elections?

 

The Final 5 Million Votes

They can’t explain these anomalies in the recorded state vote shares: 1) the strong correlation between the state exit polls and late vote shares (Kerry led in both), 2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares, and 3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to his initial  share. But it’s further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote. Bush won 51.0% of the initial 117.28m votes; Kerry won 53.0% of the final 5.0m. Kerry exceeded his initial vote share in 38 states, including 15 of 19 in the battleground.  A false impression was created early that Bush was winning as the first reported votes came in from the East. But even as the recorded votes were being reported on TV, state and national exit polls showed that Kerry was winning the popular and electoral vote. The vote-rigging apparently ended before the final 5m were recorded; Bush had already “won” the electoral vote and held a 3.5m lead in the popular vote. After the final 5m votes were recorded, his “mandate” declined by 0.5m to the official total of 62.04-59.03m.

 

Weighted Average State Vote shares

They claimed that Bush led in the pre-election state and national polls. But they forgot to calculate the national vote as a weighted average (based on the voting population) of the state poll shares. State polling data shows that Kerry led the weighted average from July to Election Day except for a brief period in September. Bush led the unweighted average. Kerry also led the national pre-election polls. In both poll sets, before undecided voter allocation, Kerry led by less than 1% nationally. But he led by 3% in the battleground states.

 

Vote Share Projection and Electoral Vote Simulation

They disputed the fact that the Nov.1, 2004 Election Model  projections were accurate and that the final pre-election polls matched the exit polls. But assuming that Kerry captured 67-75% of the undecided vote, the pre-election state (Kerry 47.9 - Bush 46.9%) and national polls (Kerry 47.2 - Bush 46.9%) closely matched the 12:22aam National Exit Poll (50.8 -48.2%). The state and national models projected Kerry as the winner by 51-48%, matching the 12:22am NEP and the weighted average state exit polls (51.8-47.2%).  The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials) forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes, assuming that he captured 60-75% of the undecided vote. Pollsters Harris, Zogby and the National Exit Poll said he won the undecided vote by 60-75%. The pre-election projections were also confirmed by the state and national exit polls in the Interactive Election Simulation Model.

 

Undecided Voters

They rejected the evidence that late undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. But world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris, who have a combined 60 years of experience, indicated that late polling showed that Kerry won 67-75% of undecided voters.  The National Exit Poll also reported that Kerry won a clear majority of undecided voters. This was not unusual; historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger over 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. The final Zogby polls in nine battleground states had Kerry leading by a 50-45% average. He was projected to win all nine by 53-46% - but won only five by 50-49%. The margin of error was exceeded in six of the nine states, a 1 in 52 million probability. This is what the Gallup poll said about undecided voters: “In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters,

the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous

 presidential races involving an incumbent”.

 

 Randomly-selected National Exit Poll samples

They declared that exit polls were not true random samples. But Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and in the NEP Methods Statement  that respondents were randomly-selected with a 1% overall margin of error. And the pre-election polls all provide a margin of error based on the number of respondents.

 

National Exit Poll Timeline

They forgot about the Law of Large Numbers.  Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). But Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48% through the use of impossible weights and implausible vote shares which were required in order to match the recorded vote.

 

Matching the Exit Polls to the Recorded Vote

They dismissed the accuracy of the early exit polls. But it’s standard operating procedure that the final exit polls are always fixed to match the recorded vote even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. This implies that the recorded vote was fraud-free – not exactly a reality-based assumption. Preliminary state and national exit polls are “contaminated” when they are forced to match a corrupt vote count.

 

The Gender Vote

They need to explain how sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of Republican males declined? One would normally expect to see a positive correlation in the Demographic Trend between the two groups. But to believe that Bush won by the 62-59m recorded vote, one must believe that his “mandate” was provided by women who in 2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. According to the NEP, Kerry won New voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?

 

Democratic Exit Poll Bias?

They noted a built-in Democratic bias in the exit polls. But they did not account for uncounted and switched votes. Exit polls overstate the recorded Democratic vote in every election. Part of the discrepancy is due to uncounted votes in heavily Democratic minority districts. In addition, solid documented evidence exists of direct vote-switching directly at DREs and on central tabulators where touch-screen, optical scanner, lever and punched card votes are counted. Republicans manufacture the voting machines which can easily be hacked.

 

Margin of Error

They said that the margin of error used in calculating the probabilities of the exit poll discrepancies was too low. But even assuming a 60%“cluster effect”, the probabilities were still near zero. The WPE-adjusted state exit polls discrepancies  exceeded the margin of error in 24 states for Bush. The Composite (12:22am) discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states - all in favor of Bush. Not a single state deviated beyond the MoE for

 Kerry. Assuming a zero cluster effect, the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states by Bush is 1 in 19 trillion.  A probability sensitivity analysis  gave Kerry a 98% probability of winning a popular vote majority - assuming a 50% cluster effect.

 

Regions and Time Zones

They cannot explain why the margin of error was exceeded (using the average state WPE) in 29 states for Bush and in just one for Kerry.  All 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted to Bush and 14 exceeded the MoE.  But the probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in 29 states is ZERO.

 

Red-shift vs. Blue-shift

They overlooked the fact that 41 states switched to Bush from the final pre-election polls to the recorded vote. But none of the 10 states which switched to Kerry was a battleground state. Forty-three states red-shifted to Bush from the 12:22am exit polls. Oregon was the only battleground state which shifted to Kerry – by less than one percent. It’s also the only state in which voting is done by mail. Was this all just a coincidence, a case of bad polling or an indication that fraud occurred? 

 

They neglected to ask why six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states: TN (1.63), TX (1.65), SD (1.67), ND (2.51), KS (2.37) and MT (0.22). The exit poll discrepancies (shown in parenthesis) were all within the exit poll margin of error. But only two competitive states deviated to Kerry: OR (0.75) and HI (1.25).  Is it just a coincidence that Oregon is the only state which votes exclusively by mail (100% paper ballots), and that any discrepancy in that state would be small and could favor either Bush or Kerry? And Hawaii is not exactly a critical state. 

 

They agreed that the vote-rich battleground states would decide the election. But was it just a coincidence that six deep-red states deviated to Kerry and not a single blue state? Or was it because Bushco did not want to explain a 50-state red-shift? Did they disregard the six states knowing that Kerry would not come close to winning them? Instead they focused on thwarting a nationwide blue-shift in competitive states. The beast was in the East, the rest were in the West.

 

Voter Mortality

They suggested that up to one million more Gore 2000 voters died than Bush voters had a major impact on the Bush “mandate”. They cited Gore’s 51-47% advantage in the Final NEP for the 60+ age group and calculated a 1.15% annual voter mortality rate (4.60% over the four years between elections). Therefore, approximately 5m of the 110.8m who cast votes in 2000 died prior to Nov 2004. But Gore’s 51% share of 5m is 2.55m; the Bush 47% share is 2.35m; the 0.20m difference is inconsequential. The Election Calculator  showed Kerry winning by 10m votes with 53.5% of the popular vote.

 

Implausible Party ID Weights

They need to explain why the Party ID mix changed from a 3-5% Democratic edge over the last 4 elections to an even 37/37 split in the Final National Exit poll. The 12:22am NEP update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents; corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote) the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49%, respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry's 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss.  But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin. It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats. So why should we believe the net 3% red-shift in weights in the Final NEP?

 

Reluctant Bush Responders

They hypothesized that Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. But the rBr theory was contradicted by the 2004 Final Exit Poll. In the Final, Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, compared to 37% for Gore voters.  And rBr was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis:  exit poll non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states, which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters. So they had to come up with another explanation. It was a perfect Hobson’s choice. If they believed the final Exit Poll (which Bush won by 51-48%), they would have to accept the weights which indicated that Bush voters were over-represented.

But then they could not claim the rBr theory.

 

Impossible Voted 2000 Weights

They claimed that it was standard operating procedure to re-weight the exit polls based on the recorded vote. But the Final NEP “Voted in 2000” weights (Bush 43/Gore 37%) were mathematically impossible. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% of the 122.3m votes recorded in 2004, since 43% of 122.3 is 52.6m- and Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000. The 43/37 weights were irrelevant and misleading since they were mathematically impossible.  Furthermore, since approximately 1.8m Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, the maximum number who could have voted in 2004 was 48.7m - assuming an impossible 100% turnout. This physical, incontrovertible mathematical fact totally confounded the naysayers. And the longer they tried to refute the facts, the sillier they looked.

 

“The Game”

They finally agreed in the Democratic Underground Game thread that the Final NEP Bush/Gore weights were impossible and came up with a new set of feasible weights. But they had to compensate for the change to feasible weights in order to match the recorded vote by inflating the Bush vote shares to implausible levels. This was necessary even though the shares were previously inflated in the Final with impossible weights in order to match the recorded vote.  It was a feeble, last-ditch Hail Mary pass to justify the Bush “mandate”.  They had to deal with an inconvenient truth: the Final National Exit Poll inflated the Bush tally by more than 4 million votes. But even though the weights were mathematically impossible, the exit-pollsters had no choice but to use them hoping that no one would notice. And so they lost the “Game”. Their use of implausible vote shares meant that they could not come up with one believable Bush win scenario.

 

To match the recorded vote, they were forced to make the following implausible assumptions:

 

1)               14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush.

The 12:22am NEP reported that 8% defected; it was changed to 10% in the 2pm Final.

The probability of a 6.6% discrepancy is ZERO.

 

2)               Kerry won 52.9% of those who did not vote (DNV) in 2000.

The NEP reported a 57-41% spread; it was changed to 54-45% in the Final.

 

3)               7.2% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry. 

The NEP reported that 10% defected; it was changed to 9% in the Final.

 

False Recall

They knew that every theory they had proposed to explain the exit poll discrepancies was refuted.  So they were forced to suggest “false recall” as a last-ditch explanation and cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final 43/37% Bush/Gore weights. This was the basis for their claim that 14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004. They implied that approximately 6.6% of Gore 2000 voters (8.6% higher than the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote and told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. The reason: a long-term bandwagon effect: Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”. 

 

But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day 2004, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls. Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.  

 

They also need to explain how the “false recall” hypothesis applies to other demographics. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047respondents were asked who they just voted for: Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.  But only 3200 of the 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  But Kerry won the other 10,000 respondents (who were not asked who they voted for) by 51-48%. This totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would 10,000 respondents tell the exit pollsters that they just voted for Kerry if they wanted to be associated with Bush?

 

 Model Assumptions

They maintain that the base case assumptions in the True Vote Model are not feasible and plausible. But the assumptions were based on feasible weights applied to plausible 12:22am NEP vote shares. The model determined that Kerry won by 66.1 - 58.4mm (52.6 - 46.4%). Applying the weights to the 2pm Final NEP (which used inflated Bush vote shares to match the vote count) Kerry was still the winner by 3.4 million (51.2 - 48.4%).  The True Vote Model input consists of the following: 1) feasible “Voted 2000” weights (ratio of Kerry, Bush, Nader/other and new voters). The 2000 recorded vote was reduced by 3.5% for mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004; 2) 12:22am NEP vote shares; 3) 3.4m uncounted votes: 125.7m reported by the 2004 Census Bureau less 122.3mm recorded;  4)  2.6mm (75%) of the uncounted votes were for Kerry; historically, the majority of  uncounted votes have been in Democratic minority districts. 

 

Switched Votes

The True Vote model also determined that 4.5m (6.8%) of Kerry’s true vote must have been switched to Bush. The simple formula is

True Vote = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched. Kerry’s True Vote was 66.1m, his recorded vote 59.0m and 2.6m were uncounted. The model also concluded that Kerry won 336 electoral votes. This result matched the Nov.1 Election Model which used Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate Kerry’s expected electoral vote.

 

The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS)

According to the 2004 EIRS, 86 of 88 touch screen vote switching incidents were from Kerry to Bush, a 1 in 79 sextillion probability.

 

Sixteen Million New Bush Voters?

They failed to explain how Bush found 16m new voters (DNV2k) to reach 62m in 2004. He had 50.5m votes in 2000. But only 46m returned to vote in 2004.  Approximately 2m Bush voters died and an estimated 2.5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush won 41% of 26.3m new voters. The 19% discrepancy was 11 times the 1.72% margin of error. The probability of the discrepancy is ZERO.  It’s important to note that a solid majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave Bush an approval rating much lower than his total 48.5% average on Election Day 2004.

 

They need to explain how Kerry lost the popular vote in 2004, even though he won a solid 57-41% share of new (DNV2k) voters. Of the DNV2k voters, Kerry won first-time voters by 55-43% and other new voters by 61-37%.  Gore won the popular vote in 2000 even though Bush captured new (DNV96) voters by 52-44%. But this is quite strange, especially since Gore won first-timers (52-43%) and Bush won others (71-26%). How could there have been such a wide discrepancy in vote share between first-timers and others? Did Bush really win 71% of other new voters?

 

Plausible Scenarios of 2000 Voter Turnout and Share of New 2004 Voters

They belittled a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which indicated that Kerry won all plausible scenarios of voter turnout and new voter share. But assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares and 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Gore voter turnout had to be 73% for Bush to tie Kerry and  64% to match the recorded 62-59m vote.  

 

Implausible Vote Shares

They need to explain these implausible changes in Bush NEP vote shares from 2000 to 2004:

-The Bush share of females increased by 4.2% while his share of males decreased by 0.2%

-His share of white females increased by 5.0% while his share of white males decreased by 0.9%

-His share of non-white females increased by 4.0% while his share of non-white males increased by only 0.76%

-His share of female independents increased by 1.8% while his share of male independents decreased by 5.6%

Didn’t females vote 54-45% for Kerry? Didn’t over 90% of blacks vote for him? Weren’t independents for Kerry by 52-44%?

Why would independent males defect to Kerry at triple the rate that independent females defected to Bush? Didn’t Nader voters break 3-1 for Kerry?

 

The “Swing” vs. “Red-shift” argument

They claimed that the raw exit poll data which have not been made public indicates that there was no tendency for Bush to do better in 2004 relative to 2000 (“swing”) than he did in the 2004 exit poll (“red-shift”).   They presented their analysis in a swing vs. red-shift scatter chart and concluded from the flat regression line that the exit poll discrepancies did not indicate fraud. But they did not consider the following factors: According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush.  A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4mm.  Assuming that 75% of approximately 5 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 2.5 million. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote margin, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 4.5 million.  

 

And that does not consider the effects of vote-switching.  We know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000.  It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush.  But assuming zero vote-switching, Gore’s adjusted, true margin was close to 4.5 million:  2.5m uncounted + 1.4m Nader + 0.54m recorded.  They never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating “swing”. Actual adjusted swing was 3.9%, recorded swing 2.0%; red-shift 4.1%.  An adjusted swing vs. red-shift  bar graph displays the deviations.  Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 4 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.

 

Ohio

They argued that the Final Ohio exit poll does not indicate fraud. But they ignored the massive documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, and voter disenfranchisement. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount.

 

Kerry won the 12:22am Ohio exit poll (Gender demographic, 1963 respondents) by 52.1-47.9%.

But the exit poll unadjusted method (WPE provided by Mitofsky) indicates that he won 54.2-45.4%.

Somehow, Bush won the 2:06pm Final (2020 respondents) by 50.94-49.06%.

 

In the Final, vote shares and weights were changed in favor of Bush to match the miscounted Ohio recorded vote.  This was just like the final NEP in which vote shares and weights were changed from the 12:22am update in order to match the miscounted National vote.

 

Two models confirmed that Kerry won Ohio.  The first was based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted to the Ohio 2000 recorded vote. Kerry was the 51.74-48.26% winner, within 0.32% of the exit poll. The second was based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (6.15%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote. Kerry was the 52.6-47.4% winner. An exhaustive statistical study of actual ballots in Ohio’s Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) indicated that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched.

 

Using the original 12:22am Ohio exit poll weights for the following demographics, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote.  So the weights were changed in favor of Bush to minimize the change:

 

First-time voters

Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?

 

When Decided

Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier? Did Bush lead by 10% in any of the early polls?

 

Party ID  

The weights changed from 38D/35R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

 

Ideology

Liberal/Conservative weights changed from 21/32 to 19/34, a 9.5% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.

 

Voted for Senate

Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic candidate. He had 7%.

 

Florida

They ignored Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and party registration.  In 2000, Bush supposedly “won” by 547 official votes. Given Gore’s 70% share of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes, Gore won by at least 60,000 votes. In 2004, Bush supposedly “won” by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.  The final Zogby pre-election poll had Kerry winning by 50-47%.  Kerry led the WPE-adjusted exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. Dan Rather's voting machine expose showed that  poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, thus illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.

 

The Democrats had a 41- 37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties.  Kerry won the TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47%, but Bush won the OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated (and Democratic) TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect.  Florida voter registration by party is the same in TS and OS counties, so we aren’t comparing apples and oranges. The TS county vote share matched the 12:22am NEP to within 0.43% for Bush and 0.31% for Kerry.  The OS county share deviated by 9.0% for Bush (307,000 votes) while the Kerry discrepancy was -8.1% (278,000).  

 

Several models indicate that Kerry won Florida. The first was based on voting machine type (optical scanners and touch screens) and used 2004 NEP “Party ID” vote shares with party registration percentage weights. Kerry won by 50.7-47.7% (closely matching the exit poll) – a 221,000 vote margin. The second was based on uncounted (1%) and switched vote (6.9%) assumptions applied to the 2004 recorded vote. Kerry won by an identical 221,000 votes. In a third calculation based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted based on the Florida 2000 recorded vote, Kerry was a 52.6-46.7% winner. In a fourth calculation, based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (7%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote, Kerry was a 51.3-48.2% winner. Assuming that Kerry won 70,000 of 96,000 Nader 2000 votes (based on his 71% NEP share), he had a built-in 100,000 vote advantage on Election Day … assuming all the votes would be counted.  Given a 1.0% margin of error, the probability is 1 in 12.7 trillion that Kerry's total TS county vote share would exceed his total Florida share by 4.2%.

 

New York

They cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in a feeble attempt to prove that the pre-election polls didn’t match the exits. Kerry won the final pre-election poll by 59-40%. The recorded vote was 58.5-40.2%. But they cannot explain how Kerry won 66% of the final 497,000 votes recorded. They claimed that the NY pre-election poll was correct and that the WPE-adjusted exit poll (Kerry 64.1- Bush 34.4- Other 1.5) was wrong.  The Exit Poll MoE is 2.6% for 1452 respondents (3.2% if a 30% cluster effect is assumed).

 

They claimed that the NY pre-election poll matched an accurate recorded vote. Their proof: Lever voting machines have a low 1% spoilage rate. But they cannot provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted accurately in ALL the precincts and they failed to consider absentee and provisional ballots. Historical evidence indicates that Lever machines are vulnerable to rigging. Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.

 

They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 - Bush 35.2 - Nader 3.6.  Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.  In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.

 

They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%).  Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.

  

They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%.  The assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted

votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%. 

 

They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%.  If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).

 

Exit Poll Response: Four matching models

Four independent mathematical methods applied to three distinct sets of precinct, national and location-size exit poll data each produced the identical result. The USCV simulation; 1250 precincts by partisanship; location-size; NEP Voted in 2000 were in near-perfect confirmation.

 

The Exit Poll Optimizer employed the Excel Solver algorithm to obtain a feasible solution for the 2-party vote (Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%). The data constraints included the recorded vote (Bush 51.24-Kerry 48.76%), response rates and within precinct error (WPE) categorized into five partisanship groupings: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry. 

 

The Optimizer confirmed the USCV simulation. Both models analyzed summary exit poll data for 1250 precincts supplied by Edison-Mitofsky and in so doing, debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The Optimizer also exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted in 2000” demographic two-party result: Kerry 52.15- Bush 47.85%. The identical result was obtained by running the Optimizer for five NEP location-size category groupings (Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns and Rural, given the WPE for each category.

 

The 2006 Midterms

Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media.  But a Pew 2006 Election Analysis  describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20 congressional seats.

 

The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush / 45 Kerry at 7pm on Election Day to 49/43 in the Final NEP at 1pm on the following day. Once again, just like in 2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 12:22am NEP “How Voted in 2000” Bush/Gore 41/39 weights were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.

 

If plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the TRUE Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the pre-election polls matched the

7pm National Exit Poll? You decide.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

The 2000 Election: Starting Point of the Analysis

 

In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners.  And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth.  Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth.

 

The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount - and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted.  Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. The spoiled punched cards in Florida were just the tip of the national iceberg.

The headline in nearly every newspaper after the National Opinion Research Center's (NORC) recount implied that Bush actually received more
votes in Florida than Gore. Not true. Under any scenario where all of the votes are counted, Gore won. The only scenarios where Bush won were those where significant numbers of votes were simply not counted. The AP said : "Under any standard that tabulated all disputed votes statewide, however, Gore erased Bush's advantage and emerged with a tiny lead that ranged from 42 to 171 votes."

Gore's won by over 46,000 if 110,000 over-votes were counted, of which 75,000 were for  Gore and a minor candidate and just 29,000 for
Bush. Many of the over-votes were entirely legal. They weren't counted because a voter may have punched in Gore's name and written it down to be
certain the counter got the message. If  Florida's counties had error-checking machines in the precincts to prevent over-votes, Gore would have won easily.
The media consortium paid practically no attention to these ballots. Why? To conceal evidence that Florida's voters preferred Gore.

The Associated Press report states, "In the review of all the state's disputed ballots, Gore edged ahead under all six scenarios for counting all under-votes and over-votes statewide."  Gore won under all scenarios. If all legal votes had been counted, Al Gore would be President.

The media deliberately mislead the public. There may have been illegalities committed by a number of state and national government officials. But it’s "Get over it, it’s time to move on”.

 

2000 Recorded Vote (mil)               

Gore     Bush     Other   

51.00    50.46    3.96    

48.4%    47.9%    3.7%    

 

Exit Poll:

Gore     Bush    Other

49.4%    47.1%    3.5%

 

Election Calculator

Gore     Bush    Other

55.81    51.65   3.34

50.4%    46.6%   3.0%

 

Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes                   

Gore     Bush     Other   

75%      20%      5%      

4.04     1.08     0.279   

 

1996 Annual Mortality                      

Total Voters 1.24%                

Clinton share 50%        

                         

1996 Voter Turnout in 2000                         

Clinton 96%              

Dole     96%             

Perot    96%             

 

1996    

Voted    Recorded Unctd   Cast     Deaths   Alive

Clinton  47.40    6.54    53.94    2.60     51.34

Dole     39.20    1.75    40.94    2.10     38.84

Perot    9.676    0.44    10.11    0.50     9.61

                                           

Total    96.28    8.73    105.00   5.21     99.79

 

 

2000 Calculated (NEP vote shares)          

 

          Turnout Voted   Weight   Gore    Bush   Other

DNV           -   15.00   13.5%    52%      43%      5%

Clinton      96% 49.29    44.5%    82%      15%      3%

Dole         96% 37.29    33.7%    8%       91%      1%

Perot        96% 9.23     8.3%     50%      42%      8%

                                           

Total       95.80 110.8   100%     50.37%  46.62%  3.01%

                                   55.81   51.65   3.34

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 1                     

 

         Gore Share of New voters                  

         48.0%    50.0%    52.0%    54.0%    56.0%

Gore%

Clinton  Gore National Vote Share

86%      51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.7%

84%      50.7%    51.0%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%

82%      49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%

80%      48.9%    49.2%    49.5%    49.8%    50.0%

78%      48.0%    48.3%    48.6%    48.9%    49.1%

                                           

          Margin (mil)                     

86%      6.9      7.5      8.1      8.7      9.3

84%      4.9      5.5      6.1      6.7      7.3

82%      3.0      3.6      4.2      4.8      5.4

80%      1.0      1.6      2.2      2.8      3.4

78%      (1.0)    (0.4)    0.2      0.8      1.4

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis 2                     

 

               Clinton Voter Turnout in 2000                         

         92.0%    94.0%    96.0%    98.0%    100.0%

Clinton%

Unctd96        Gore National Vote Share

95%      50.9%    51.2%    51.5%    51.8%    52.1%

85%      50.4%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%    51.5%

75%      49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%

65%      49.3%    49.5%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%

55%      48.7%    49.0%    49.3%    49.5%    49.8%

                                           

         Margin (mil)                      

95%      5.4      6.1      6.7      7.3      7.9

85%      4.2      4.8      5.4      6.0      6.6

75%      3.0      3.6      4.2      4.8      5.3

65%      1.7      2.3      2.9      3.5      4.1

55%      0.5      1.1      1.6      2.2      2.8

 

______________________________________________________________

 

 Florida 2000 Uncounted Votes by County

 

Bush was leading by 537 votes when the recount was aborted by the Supreme Court. A full count of 175,010 spoiled ballots indicated that Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes.  Of the spoiled ballots, 54% were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then a simple calculation shows that approximately 126,000 (72%) were Gore votes. In addition, thousands of Gore voters mistakenly voted for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, due to the infamous “Butterfly” ballot. Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in PBC and 0.25% in the other counties.  

 

Final Recorded Vote

Gore      2,912,253
Bush      2,912,790  
Nader        97,488
Buchanan     17,021

Other        23,558
 Total    5,963,110

 

County Recorded Vote                                                                                                 

County        Precincts   Total    Gore     Bush   Buchanan   Nader   Other      Gore    Bush    Buchanan     Nader

Totals           5884     5963     2912     2913     17       97       24       48.83%   48.85%   0.29%        1.63%

                                                                                               

Alachua          53       86       47       34       0        3        1        55.2%    39.8%    0.3%         3.8%

Baker            8        8        2        6        0        0        0        29.3%    68.8%    0.9%         0.6%

Bay               47      59       19       39       0        1        0        32.1%    65.7%    0.4%         1.4%

Bradford         21       9        3        5        0        0        0        35.5%    62.4%    0.7%         1.0%

Brevard          177      218      97       115      1        4        1        44.6%    52.7%    0.3%         2.0%

 

Broward          618      573      387      177      1        7        2        67.4%    30.9%    0.1%         1.2%

Calhoun          13       5        2        3        0        0        0        41.7%    55.5%    1.7%         0.8%

Charlotte        63       67       30       35       0        1        0        44.3%    53.0%    0.3%         2.2%

Citrus           35       57       26       30       0        1        0        44.6%    52.0%    0.5%         2.4%

Clay              51      57       15       42       0        1        0        25.5%    72.8%    0.3%         1.0%

 

Collier          96       92       30       60       0        1        0        32.5%    65.6%    0.1%         1.5%

Columbia         31       19       7        11       0        0        0        38.1%    59.2%    0.5%         1.4%

Miami-Dade       614      625      329      290      1        5        1        52.6%    46.3%    0.1%         0.9%

DeSoto           15       8        3        4        0        0        0        42.5%    54.5%    0.5%         2.0%

Dixie            11       5        2        3        0        0        0        39.1%    57.8%    0.6%         1.6%

 

Duval            268      265      108      152      1        3        1        40.8%    57.5%    0.2%         1.0%

Escambia         108      117      41       73       1        2        0        35.1%    62.6%    0.4%         1.5%

Flagler          27       27       14       13       0        0        0        51.3%    46.5%    0.3%         1.6%

Franklin         8        5        2        2        0        0        0        44.1%    52.8%    0.7%         1.8%

Gadsden          16       15       10       5        0        0        0        66.1%    32.4%    0.3%         0.9%

 

Gilchrist        10       5        2        3        0        0        0        35.4%    61.2%    0.5%         1.8%

Glades           13       3        1        2        0        0        0        42.9%    54.7%    0.3%         1.7%

Gulf              14      6        2        4        0        0        0        39.0%    57.8%    1.2%         1.4%

Hamilton         8        4        2        2        0        0        0        43.4%    54.1%    0.6%         0.9%

Hardee           12       6        2        4        0        0        0        37.5%    60.4%    0.5%         1.2%

 

Hendry           22       8        3        5        0        0        0        39.8%    58.3%    0.3%         1.3%

Hernando         51       65       33       31       0        2        0        50.1%    47.0%    0.4%         2.3%

Highlands        28       35       14       20       0        1        0        40.3%    57.5%    0.4%         1.6%

Hillsboro        320      360      170      181      1        7        2        47.1%    50.2%    0.2%         2.1%

Holmes           16       7        2        5        0        0        0        29.4%    67.8%    1.0%         1.3%

 

Indian River     41       50       20       29       0        1        0        39.8%    57.7%    0.2%         1.9%

Jackson          27       16       7        9        0        0        0        42.1%    56.1%    0.6%         0.8%

Jefferson        13       6        3        2        0        0        0        53.9%    43.9%    0.5%         1.3%

Lafayette        5        3        1        2        0        0        0        31.5%    66.7%    0.4%         1.0%

Lake             86       89       37       50       0        1        0        41.3%    56.5%    0.3%         1.6%

 

Lee             150       184      74       106      0        4        1        39.9%    57.6%    0.2%         1.9%

Leon             95       103      61       39       0        2        0        59.6%    37.9%    0.3%         1.9%

Levy             21       13       5        7        0        0        0        42.4%    53.9%    0.5%         2.2%

Liberty          8        2        1        1        0        0        0        42.2%    54.6%    1.6%         0.8%

Madison          11       6        3        3        0        0        0        48.9%    49.3%    0.5%         0.9%

 

Manatee          135      110      49       58       0        2        0        44.6%    52.6%    0.2%         2.3%

Marion           96       103      45       55       1        2        1        43.4%    53.6%    0.5%         1.8%

Martin           40       62       27       34       0        1        0        42.9%    54.8%    0.2%         1.8%

Monroe           33       34       16       16       0        1        0        48.7%    47.4%    0.1%         3.2%

Nassau           21       24       7        16       0        0        0        29.2%    69.0%    0.4%         1.1%

 

Okaloosa         48       71       17       52       0        1        0        24.0%    73.7%    0.4%         1.4%

Okeechobee       18       10       5        5        0        0        0        46.6%    51.3%    0.4%         1.3%

Orange           232      280      140      135      0        4        1        50.1%    48.1%    0.0%         1.4%

Osceola          66       56       28       26       0        1        0        50.6%    47.1%    0.3%         1.3%

Palm Beach       531      433      270      153      3        6        2        62.3%    35.3%    0.8%         1.3%

 

Pasco            132      143      70       69       1        3        1        48.7%    48.0%    0.4%         2.4%

Pinellas         345      398      201      185      1        10       2        50.3%    46.4%    0.3%         2.5%

Polk              163     169      75       90       1        2        1        44.6%    53.6%    0.3%         1.2%

Putnam           50       26       12       13       0        0        0        46.2%    51.3%    0.6%         1.4%

St. Johns        57       61       20       40       0        1        0        32.1%    65.1%    0.4%         2.0%

 

St. Lucie        78       78       42       35       0        1        0        53.3%    44.5%    0.2%         1.8%

Santa Rosa       36       50       13       36       0        1        0        25.4%    72.1%    0.6%         1.4%

Sarasota         142      161      73       83       0        4        1        45.3%    51.6%    0.2%         2.5%

Seminole         133      138      59       76       0        2        1        43.0%    55.0%    0.1%         1.4%

Sumter           24       22       10       12       0        0        0        43.3%    54.5%    0.5%         1.4%

 

Suwannee         16       12       4        8        0        0        0        32.8%    64.4%    0.9%         1.4%

Taylor           14       7        3        4        0        0        0        38.9%    59.6%    0.4%         0.9%

Union            11       4        1        2        0        0        0        36.8%    61.0%    0.9%         0.9%

Volusia          172      184      97       82       0        3        1        53.0%    44.8%    0.3%         1.6%

Wakulla          12       9        4        5        0        0        0        44.7%    52.5%    0.5%         1.7%

 

Walton           33       18       6        12       0        0        0        30.8%    66.5%    0.7%         1.4%

Washington       15       8        3        5        0        0        0        34.9%    62.3%    1.1%         1.2%

 

 

Uncounted Votes (thousands:

          Votes Share

Gore      126.3   72.1%

Bush       45.0   25.7

Nader       2.6    1.5

Buchanan    0.5    0.3

Other       0.7    0.4

Total     175.0 (2.85% of 6138k)

 

                Unctd     Adj      Unctd%      Adjusted Count (total votes cast)       Adjusted Vote Share

County          Total     Total    Adj      Gore     Bush     Buch     Nader   Other    Gore     Bush

Totals           175      6138     2.85%    3039     2958      18       100      23      49.51%   48.19%

                                                                                      

Alachua          0.33     86       0.38%    48       34        0.3      3.2      0.8     55.3%    39.8%

Baker            0.14     8        1.69%    2        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.1%    68.1%

Bay              0.66     59       1.11%    19       39        0.2      0.8      0.2     32.5%    65.3%

Bradford         0.73     9        7.80%    4        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     38.3%    59.6%

Brevard          1.03     219      0.47%    98       115       0.6      4.5      0.9     44.7%    52.6%

 

Broward          14.61    588      2.48%    397      181       0.8      7.3      1.7     67.5%    30.8%

Calhoun          0.08     5        1.49%    2        3         0.1      0.0      0.0     42.1%    55.1%

Charlotte        3.16     70       4.51%    32       36        0.2      1.5      0.2     45.6%    51.7%

Citrus           0.22     57       0.38%    26       30        0.3      1.4      0.3     44.7%    51.9%

Clay             0.15     58       0.27%    15       42        0.2      0.6      0.2     25.6%    72.6%

 

Collier          3.18     95       3.34%    32       61        0.1      1.4      0.3     33.8%    64.3%

Columbia         0.69     19       3.61%    8        11        0.1      0.3      0.2     39.3%    58.0%

Miami-Dade       28.60    654      4.37%    349      297       0.6      5.8      1.3     53.4%    45.4%

DeSoto           0.70     9        8.24%    4        4         0.0      0.2      0.0     45.0%    52.2%

Dixie            0.33     5        6.64%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.3%    55.7%

 

Duval            26.91    292      9.23%    127      159       0.7      3.2      1.4     43.7%    54.5%

Escambia         4.37     121      3.61%    44       74        0.5      1.8      0.5     36.4%    61.3%

Flagler          0.06     27       0.23%    14       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     51.3%    46.5%

Franklin         0.42     5        8.28%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     46.4%    50.6%

Gadsden          2.07     17       12.3%    11       5         0.0      0.2      0.1     66.8%    31.5%

 

Gilchrist        0.29     6        5.07%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.1     37.3%    59.4%

Glades           0.37     4        9.98%    2        2         0.0      0.1      0.0     45.8%    51.8%

Gulf             0.41     7        6.27%    3        4         0.1      0.1      0.0     41.1%    55.8%

Hamilton         0.39     4        8.94%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     46.0%    51.6%

Hardee           0.41     7        6.14%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     39.7%    58.3%

 

Hendry           0.80     9        8.95%    4        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     42.7%    55.4%

Hernando         0.25     65       0.38%    33       31        0.2      1.5      0.2     50.1%    46.9%

Highlands        1.01     36       2.79%    15       20        0.1      0.6      0.1     41.2%    56.6%

Hillsboro        9.17     369      2.48%    176      183       0.9      7.6      1.7     47.7%    49.6%

Holmes           0.14     8        1.84%    2        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.2%    67.0%

 

Indian River     1.94     52       3.76%    21       29        0.1      1.0      0.2     41.1%    56.5%

Jackson          1.16     17       6.63%    8        9         0.1      0.2      0.1     44.1%    54.0%

Jefferson        0.57     6        9.22%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     55.6%    42.2%

Lafayette        0.17     3        6.39%    1        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     34.1%    64.0%

Lake             3.61     92       3.92%    39       51        0.3      1.5      0.3     42.5%    55.2%

 

Lee              4.57     189      2.42%    77       107       0.3      3.7      0.8     40.7%    56.8%

Leon             0.18     103      0.18%    62       39        0.3      1.9      0.4     59.6%    37.9%

Levy             0.76     13       5.64%    6        7         0.1      0.3      0.1     44.1%    52.3%

Liberty          0.19     3        7.24%    1        1         0.0      0.0      0.0     44.4%    52.6%

Madison          0.48     7        7.23%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     50.6%    47.6%

 

Manatee          1.41     112      1.26%    50       58        0.3      2.5      0.3     45.0%    52.2%

Marion           3.35     106      3.15%    47       56        0.6      1.9      0.8     44.3%    52.7%

Martin           0.61     63       0.97%    27       34        0.1      1.1      0.2     43.2%    54.5%

Monroe           0.18     34       0.53%    17       16        0.0      1.1      0.2     48.8%    47.3%

Nassau           1.58     25       6.28%    8        17        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.9%    66.3%

 

Okaloosa         0.77     71       1.07%    17       52        0.3      1.0      0.4     24.5%    73.2%

Okeechobee       0.86     11       8.01%    5        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     48.6%    49.3%

Orange           2.40     278      0.86%    142      135       0.0      3.9      1.1     50.3%    47.9%

Osceola          1.68     57       2.94%    29       27        0.1      0.8      0.4     51.3%    46.5%

Palm Beach       29.70    457      6.49%    291      161       3.5      6.0      1.6     62.9%    34.7%

 

Pasco            3.92     147      2.67%    72       70        0.6      3.5      0.6     49.4%    47.5%

Pinellas         8.49     407      2.09%    207      187       1.0      10.1     2.0     50.8%    46.0%

Polk             0.90     170      0.53%    76       91        0.5      2.1      0.5     44.7%    53.4%

Putnam           0.17     26       0.64%    12       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     46.3%    51.1%

St. Johns        3.24     64       5.06%    22       40        0.2      1.3      0.3     34.1%    63.1%

 

St. Lucie        0.34     78       0.43%    42       35        0.1      1.4      0.2     53.4%    44.4%

Santa Rosa       0.37     51       0.72%    13       36        0.3      0.7      0.2     25.8%    71.8%

Sarasota         0.56     162      0.35%    73       83        0.3      4.1      0.6     45.4%    51.5%

Seminole         0.65     138      0.47%    60       76        0.2      2.0      0.6     43.1%    54.8%

Sumter           0.76     23       3.31%    10       12        0.1      0.3      0.1     44.2%    53.5%

 

Suwannee         0.73     13       5.56%    5        8         0.1      0.2      0.1     34.9%    62.2%

Taylor           0.60     7        8.09%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.6%    56.8%

Union            0.26     4        6.32%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     39.0%    58.8%

Volusia          0.50     184      0.27%    98       82        0.5      2.9      0.6     53.0%    44.8%

Wakulla          0.42     9        4.68%    4        5         0.0      0.2      0.0     46.0%    51.3%

 

Walton           0.22     19       1.18%    6        12        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.3%    66.0%

Washington       0.33     8        3.94%    3        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     36.4%    60.8%

 

 ______________________________________________________________

 

 

2000 Recorded State Vote

(in thousands)

 

State            Gore     Bush     Nader    Other    Total    Weight  

Total            51,004   50,460   2,883    1,070    105,417  100%             

 

Alabama           696     944      18       14       1,673    1.59%   

Alaska             79     167      29       10       286      0.27%   

Arizona           685     782      46       21       1,534    1.46%   

Arkansas          423     473      13       13       922      0.87%   

California       5,861    4,567    419      119      10,966   10.40%  

                                                                     

Colorado          738     884      91       28       1,741    1.65%   

Connecticut      816      561      64       18       1,460    1.38%   

Delaware          180     137      8        2        328      0.31%   

D. C.            172      18       11       1        202      0.19%   

Florida          2,912    2,913    97       41       5,963    5.66%   

                                                                     

Georgia         1,116     1,420    13       47       2,597    2.46%   

Hawaii            205     138      22       3        368      0.35%   

Idaho            139      337      12       14       502      0.48%   

Illinois        2,589     2,019    104      30       4,742    4.50%   

Indiana           902     1,246    19       33       2,199    2.09%   

                                                                     

Iowa             639      634      29       13       1,316    1.25%   

Kansas            399     622      36       15       1,072    1.02%   

Kentucky          639     872      23       10       1,544    1.46%   

Louisiana        792      928      20       25       1,766    1.67%   

Maine            320      287      37       8        652      0.62%   

                                                                     

Maryland          1,146   814      54       12       2,025    1.92%   

Massachusetts    1,616    879      174      34       2,703    2.56%   

Michigan          2,170   1,953    84       25       4,233    4.02%   

Minnesota        1,168    1,110    127      34       2,439    2.31%   

Mississippi      405      573      8        9        995      0.94%   

                                                                     

Missouri         1,111    1,190    39       20       2,360    2.24%   

Montana           137     240      24       9        411      0.39%   

Nebraska          232     434      25       7        697      0.66%   

Nevada            280     302      15       12       609      0.58%   

New Hampshire    266      274      22       7        569      0.54%   

                                                                     

New Jersey       1,789    1,284    95       20       3,187    3.02%   

New Mexico       287      286      21       4        599      0.57%   

New York         4,108   2,403    244       67       6,823    6.47%   

North Carolina   1,258    1,631    0        22       2,911    2.76%   

North Dakota     95       175      9        9        288      0.27%   

                                                                     

Ohio             2,186    2,351    118      50       4,705    4.46%   

Oklahoma          474     744      0        16       1,234    1.17%   

Oregon            720     714      77       23       1,534    1.46%   

Pennsylvania     2,486    2,281    103      43       4,913    4.66%   

Rhode Island     250      131      25       4        409      0.39%   

                                                                     

South Carolina   566      786      20       11       1,384    1.31%   

South Dakota     119      191      0        7        316      0.30%   

Tennessee        982      1,062    20       13       2,076    1.97%   

Texas            2,434    3,800    138      36       6,408    6.08%   

Utah             203      515      36       17       771      0.73%   

                                                                     

Vermont           149     120      20       5        294      0.28%   

Virginia          1,217   1,437    59       25       2,739    2.60%   

Washington       1,248    1,109    103      29       2,489    2.36%   

West Virginia    295      336      11       5        648      0.61%   

Wisconsin        1,243    1,237    94       24       2,599    2.47%   

Wyoming           60      148      5        5        218      0.21%   

 

 

 

2000 Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll

 

                  Recorded                             Exit Poll     2-party

State            Gore     Bush     Nader    Other    WPE      Gore     Gore

Total            48.38%   47.87%   2.73%    1.02%    -2.01    49.39%   51.31%

 

Alabama           41.6%   56.5%    1.1%     0.8%     -5.5     44.3%    45.2%

Alaska            27.7%   58.6%    10.1%    3.6%              27.7%    32.1%

Arizona           44.7%   51.0%    3.0%     1.4%              44.7%    46.7%

Arkansas          45.9%   51.3%    1.5%     1.4%     -3.2     47.5%    48.8%

California        53.4%   41.7%    3.8%     1.1%     -3.8     55.3% ;   58.2%

                                                                     

Colorado          42.4%   50.8%    5.3%     1.6%     -5.6     45.2%    48.5%

Connecticut       55.9%   38.4%    4.4%     1.2%     -0.9     56.4% ;   59.7%

Delaware          55.0%   41.9%    2.5%     0.6%     -7.1     58.5%    60.4%

D. C.             85.2%    9.0%    5.2%     0.7%              85.2%    90.5%

Florida           48.8%   48.8%    1.6%     0.7%     -0.6     49.1%    50.3%

                                                                     

Georgia           43.0%   54.7%    0.5%     1.8%     -5.6     45.8%    46.9%

Hawaii            55.8%   37.5%    5.9%     0.9%              55.8%    59.8%

Idaho             27.6%   67.2%    2.5%     2.7%     2.5      26.4%    27.8%

Illinois          54.6%   42.6%    2.2%     0.6%     -6.4     57.8%    59.5%

Indiana           41.0%   56.6%    0.8%     1.5%     -3.6     42.8%    43.8%

                                                                     

Iowa              48.5%   48.2%    2.2%     1.0%     3.0      47.0%    48.6%

Kansas            37.2%   58.0%    3.4%     1.4%     -4.4     39.4%    41.4%

Kentucky          41.4%   56.5%    1.5%     0.6%     4.4      39.2%    40.0%

Louisiana         44.9%   52.6%    1.2%     1.4%     -0.6     45.2% ;   46.4%

Maine             49.1%   44.0%    5.7%     1.2%     -2.1     50.1% ;   53.9%

                                                                     

Maryland          56.6%   40.2%    2.7%     0.6%     -4.3     58.7%    60.7%

Massachusetts     59.8%   32.5%    6.4%     1.3%     -4.3     62.0% ;   67.1%

Michigan          51.3%   46.1%    2.0%     0.6%     -2.2     52.4% ;   53.8%

Minnesota         47.9%   45.5%    5.2%     1.4%     0.5      47.7%    51.0%

Mississippi       40.7%   57.6%    0.8%     0.9%     -3.2     42.3% ;   43.0%

                                                                     

Missouri          47.1%   50.4%    1.6%     0.9%     1.8      46.2%    47.4%

Montana           33.4%   58.4%    5.9%     2.3%     3.2      31.8%    34.6%

Nebraska          33.3%   62.2%    3.5%     1.0%     -4.1     35.3%    37.0%

Nevada            46.0%   49.5%    2.5%     2.0%     -6.0     49.0% ;   51.3%

New Hampshire     46.8%   48.1%    3.9%     1.2%     -2.4     48.0%    50.6%

                                                                     

New Jersey       56.1%    40.3%    3.0%     0.6%     -0.4     56.3%    58.4%

New Mexico       47.9%    47.8%    3.6%     0.7%     5.1      45.4%    47.4%

New York         60.2%    35.2%    3.6%     1.0%     -3.3     61.9% ;   64.8%

North Carolina   43.2%    56.0%    0.0%     0.8%     -9.8     48.1%    48.5%

North Dakota     33.1%    60.7%    3.3%     3.0%     2.0      32.1%    34.2%

                                                                     

Ohio             46.5%    50.0%    2.5%     1.1%     -1.0     47.0%    48.7%

Oklahoma         38.4%    60.3%    0.0%     1.3%      4.7     36.1%    36.5%

Oregon           47.0%    46.5%    5.0%     1.5%      na      47.0%    50.2%

Pennsylvania     50.6%    46.4%    2.1%     0.9%     -0.8     51.0%    52.6%

Rhode Island     61.0%    31.9%    6.1%     1.0%     -0.4     61.2% ;   65.9%

                                                                     

South Carolina   40.9%    56.8%    1.5%     0.8%     -3.5     42.7%    43.6%

South Dakota     37.6%    60.3%    0.0%     2.1%     -0.9     38.0%    38.8%

Tennessee        47.3%    51.1%    1.0%     0.6%     2.2      46.2%    46.9%

Texas            38.0%    59.3%    2.2%     0.6%     -0.4     38.2%    39.2%

Utah             26.3%    66.8%    4.7%     2.2%     1.0      25.8%    27.7%

                                                                     

Vermont          50.6%    40.7%    6.9%     1.7%     0.4      50.4%    55.2%

Virginia         44.4%    52.5%    2.2%     0.9%     -2.0     45.4% ;   46.9%

Washington       50.1%    44.6%    4.1%     1.2%     -3.7     52.0%    54.9%

West Virginia    45.6%    51.9%    1.6%     0.8%     4.5      43.3%    44.5%

Wisconsin        47.8%    47.6%    3.6%     0.9%     2.4      46.6%    48.9%

Wyoming          27.7%    67.8%    2.1%     2.4%     -1.0     28.2% ;   29.5%

 

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Smoking Gun: The Final National Exit Poll

 

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is the smoking gun of election fraud. The NEP has always been matched to the recorded vote on the assumption that it is accurate. But in every election millions of votes are cast but never counted-and most of them are Democratic. Therefore, it is immediately obvious that the recorded vote did not reflect the true vote. Uncounted votes are a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional ballots. Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 are obvious examples.  In addition to these uncounted votes, we will show that millions of votes must have been switched from Kerry to Bush.

 

The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the “How Voted in 2000” weights to Bush 43/Gore 37%. The Bush 43% weighting is impossible since it implies that 52.59mm of the recorded 2004 total of 122.3m voted for Bush in 2000. But this is 2.13m more than

his 50.46mm recorded vote. And it’s 3.9m more than the 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters who were living in 2004. Furthermore, since some Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, his true weighting had to be lower than 39.8%.

 

If we assume a 95% turnout (46.27mm) of Bush 2000 voters in 2004, the Bush weighting is reduced to a feasible 37.8% (46.27/122.3). Since impossible weights were required in order to match the recorded vote, the only logical conclusion is that the recorded vote must also have been impossible. The weights become Bush 37.0/Kerry 37.4% when they are calculated based on the Census 2004 total of 125.7 million votes cast (assuming a 95% turnout and 3.0% mortality rate).

 

Other (third-party) shares of both new (DNV2k) and Gore voters declined to near zero in the Final, reducing the vote from 1.2 to 0.50 million. The recorded third-party vote was 1.23mm (1.0%). This discrepancy accounts for the difference between the (62.0-59.0 million) recorded vote and the Final NEP (62.5-59.3).

 

Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6mm vote margin.

Bush won the 2:04pm Final National Exit Poll  (13660 respondents) by a 3.2mm margin.

 

Final recorded vote count 

Kerry    Bush     Other

48.27%   50.73%   1.01%

59.03    62.04    1.23

 

 

National Exit Poll

 

        12:22am (13047 respondents)          2pm Final (13660 respondents)

Voted2k Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other      Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other

DNV2k    17%      57%      41%      2%       17%      54%      45%      1%

Gore     39%      91%      8%       1%       37%      90%      10%      0%

Bush     41%      10%      90%      0%       43%      9%       91%      0%

Other    3%       71%      21%      8%       3%       71%      21%      8%

                                                                              

Share 100%    51.41%   47.62%   0.97%     100%    48.48%   51.11%   0.41%

Votes 122.3   62.87    58.24    1.19      122.3   59.29    62.50    0.50

 

 

_________________________________________________________

 

Election Calculator Model

 

Assumptions:

1) 1222am NEP: (13047 respondents)

2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%

3) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted

4) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted

5) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)

 

         2000 Recorded                              

Voted    Recd     Unctd    Cast     Died    Alive

Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.72     52.32

Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.48     49.06

Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02

                                           

Total    105.42   5.38     110.8    5.41     105.39

                                           

                                  

         2004 Calculated                   

       Turnout   Voted    Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other

DNV      -       &nnbsp;25.61    20.4%    57%      41%      2%

Gore     95%      49.70    39.5%    91%      8%       1%

Bush     95%      46.60    37.1%    10%      90%      0%

Other    95%      3.82     3.0%     64%      17%      19%

                                                   

Total   100.1    125.7    100%    53.23%   45.39%   1.38%

                                   66.94   57.07    1.74

 

Input assumptions: impact on vote shares

 

                        2000 Voter Weights                                    

                        Gore      Bush   Turnout    Mort    Unctd      Kerry  

1- Final NEP            37%       43%      -       -      &nbbsp; -        48.48%  

2- 1222am NEP           39%       41%      -        -      &nbbsp; -      &nbbsp; 51.40%  

 

Election Calculation Model

3- 2000 Voter Turnout   39.6%      39.2%    95%      0%       0%       52.26%  

4- 2004 Unctd Votes     38.5%      38.1%    95%      0%       2.74%    52.39%  

5- 2000 Unctd Votes     41.6%      38.9%    95%      0%       4.86%    53.06%  

6- Voter Mortality      39.5%      37.1%    95%      4.88%     -       53.23%  

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

The Democratic Underground “Game” Thread

 

In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in 2000” category, the exit pollsters had to 1) use impossible Bush 43/ Gore 37 weights and 2) increase the Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%.  Lindeman was challenged to provide a mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. It took him several months before he responded to the challenge in the famous Democratic Underground Game Thread. 

 

In order to comply with the rules of the “game” by using feasible weights, Mark presented a spreadsheet to hypothesize how Bush achieved his 3 million vote “mandate”.  He used feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and 2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.  But Mark inflated the Bush vote shares over the Final NEP shares in order to match the recorded vote. Although the weightings were feasible, the inflated vote shares were implausible. He had no choice but to increase the already-inflated Bush vote shares even further beyond the corresponding 12:22am NEP timeline.

 

Mark’s implausible Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:

1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.

    The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).

 

2)  Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000). 

     The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final). 

 

3)  Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.

     The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).

 

On the other hand, the TIA True Vote model used feasible weights and plausible vote shares and calculated that Kerry won by a 52.6-46.4% - a 7.7 million vote landslide. The assumptions: 1)  Only Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters still living could vote in 2004 (it took a while for the naysayers to see this), 2) 12:22am NEP vote shares, 3) 0.87% annual mortality, 4) 95% turnout of Gore, Bush and other 2000 voters, 5) 125.74m total votes cast (Census).  

 

The mortality rate and 2000 voter turnout assumptions have minimal effect on the national vote share. Kerry wins easily regardless of the assumptions used. The 125.7m Census estimate does not change the NEP vote shares, but it provides a more accurate estimate of the True Vote count than the 122.3m recorded vote.

 

 

 

            TIA True Vote Model                        Lindeman “Game” Model

         Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other            Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      21.49%   57%      41%      2%               21.72%   52.90%   46.50%   0.60%

Gore     38.23%   91%      8%       1%               37.84%   84.83%   14.63%   0.54%

Bush     37.83%   10%      90%      0%               37.44%   7.20%    92.31%   0.49%

Other    2.45%    71%      21%      8%               3.00%    65.90%   18.10%   16.00%

                                                                              

Share    100.00%  52.56%   46.43%   1.01%            100.00%  48.26%   50.74%   1.00%

                                                                              

                                                                              

         Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other            Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      27.02    15.40    11.08    0.54             26.56    14.05    12.35    0.16

Gore     48.07    43.74    3.85     0.48             46.28    39.26    6.77     0.25

Bush     47.57    4.76     42.81    0.00             45.79    3.30     42.27    0.22

Other    3.08     2.19     0.65     0.25             3.67     2.42     0.66     0.59

                                                                              

Total    125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27             122.30   59.02    62.05    1.22

 

 

Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights?  Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a) plausible 37.84 Gore/ 37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate, or b) impossible NEP 43 Bush/ 37% Gore weights and a plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?

 

Lindeman had to replace the debunked reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis with “false recall”.  He cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. He wanted to have it both ways: On the one hand, he said the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in which Gore voters lied; on the other hand,  he contradicted his Bush win scenario by using feasible weights applied to the implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate.  But it was a very weak argument because it implied that approximately 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. The reason: a long-term bandwagon effect: Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”.

 

But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.

 

Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.  

 

False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047respondents were asked whom they had just voted for – and Kerry won.  But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush?  Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.

 

GENDER     Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other

Male       46%      47%      52%      1%

Female     54%      54%      45%      1%

 

Share      100%     50.78%   48.22%   1.00%

Votes      122.3    62.10    58.97    1.22

 

The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004. We already know the maximum: they are the Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters still alive to vote in 2004. But the maximum mathematically feasible weights must be reduced by 2000 voter turnout to obtain realistic, plausible weights.  The weights are multiplied by the corresponding individual exit poll vote shares to calculate the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if "false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters did not falsely recall who they voted forjust five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie? Survey responses are confidential.

 

The probabilities of the Lindeman vote share deviations from the 12:22am NEP are near zero.

 

Voted    NEP   Share   Deviation    MoE     Probability

DNV2k    57%   52.90%   4.10%      1.72%    1 in 629,000

Gore     91%   84.83%   6.17%      0.99%    ZERO

Bush     10%    7.20%   2.80%      1.04%    1 in 15 million

 

DNV2k Probability Calculation

StDev   = sqrt (0.57 * 0.43/3200) = 0.0088

MoE     = 1.96 * StDev =   1.96 * 0.0088 = 1.72%

Z-score = Dev / StDev  =   .041 / 0.0088 = 4.67

 

Probability    = NORMDIST (Share, NEP, StDev, true)

Prob (DNV2k)   = NORMDIST (.529, .57, 0.0088, true) = 1 in 629,000

Prob (Gore)    = NORMDIST (.848, .91, 0.0051, true) = ZERO

Prob (Bush)    = NORMDIST (.720, .10, 0.0053, true) = 1 in 15 million

 

___________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Implausible Gore Voter Defection

Bush required 21% of Gore voters in order to match his 2004 vote share

 

This analysis shows that for Bush to obtain his 3 million "mandate", he needed 21% of former Gore voters. According to the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote), he had 10%.

 

These are the facts:

There were 105.42m recorded votes in 2000.

Gore won by 51.00-50.46m or 48.4-47.9% (3.95m for Nader/other).

 

There were 122.3m recorded votes in 2004.

Bush won by 62.04-59.03m or 50.7-48.3% (1.22m for Nader/other).

 

These are the assumptions:

Of the 105.4m who voted in 2000, approximately

1) 5.3m died (1.25% annual voter mortality)

2) 5.0m did not return to vote in 2004 (95% turnout)

There were approximately 95.1m returning 2000 voters in 2004.

 

Assuming an equal 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004, 46.0m were former Gore, 45.5m Bush and 3.6m Nader/other voters. According to the Census Bureau, 125.7m votes were cast in 2004 (3.4m were uncounted).

There were approximately 30.6 million new voters in 2004!

 

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll:

1) Kerry won 57% (17.4m) of new voters;
Bush won 41% (12.5m)

2) Kerry won 64% (2.3m) of returning Nader/others;
Bush won 17% (0.6m)

3) Kerry won 10% (4.6m) of returning Bush voters;
Bush won 90% (41.0m) of returning Bush voters.

4) Kerry won 91% (41.9m) of returning Gore voters;
Bush won 8% (3.7m) of returning Gore voters

 

If you believe that the vote shares for 1,2,3 above are accurate, and that Bush did in fact win by 3 million votes, then you must also believe that Bush won 9.7m of 46.0m (21%) Gore voters.

Approximately 3200 of 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. The exit poll vote discrepancy was 13% (21-8%). Assuming a 30% "cluster effect", the margin of error is 2.3%. The probability of a 13% vote discrepancy is ZERO.

So why would you believe that 21% of Gore voters defected to Bush while only 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry?

On the other hand, if you believe that the vote shares in 4) are also accurate and that Bush won just 8% of returning Gore voters, then you must believe that Kerry won the True Vote by over 8 million.

The True Vote is calculated as:

Kerry = 91% of Gore + 10% of Bush +57% of New +64% of Other (Nader et al)

Bush  = 90% of Bush +   8% of Gore +41% of New +17% of Other 

Kerry =  66.2m  (52.6%) = 41.9 + 4.6 + 17.4 +2.3 

Bush  =  57.8m  (46.0%) = 41.0 + 3.7 + 12.5 +0.6 

_________________________________________________________ 

Assumptions:

12:22am NEP with adjusted Gore vote shares  

Feasible weights based on 1.25% annual voter mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004.       

Census total votes cast: 125.7m

                                   Vote share                Votes (mil)               

     Turnout     Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      na       30.6     24.3%    57%      41%      2%        17.4    12.5      0.6 

Gore     95%      46.0     36.6%    78%      21%      1%        35.9     9.7      0.5 

Bush     95%      45.5     36.2%    10%      90%      0%        4.6     41.0      0.0   

Other    95%      3.6      2.8%     64%      17%      19%       2.3      0.6      0.7 

Total    100.1    125.7    100%     47.9%    50.7%    1.4%      60.2     63.8     1.8 

Calculation of the True Vote

Assumptions:

Same as above but use actual 12:22am NEP vote shares

Kerry wins by 8.4m votes

                                   Vote share                Votes (mil)               

       Turnout   Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      na       30.6     24.3%    57%      41%      2%        17.4    12.5     0.6 

Gore     95%      46.0     36.6%    91%      8%       1%        41.9     3.7     0.5 

Bush     95%      45.5     36.2%    10%      90%      0%        4.6      41.0    0.0   

Other    95%      3.6      2.8%     64%      17%      19%       2.3      0.6     0.7 

Total    100.15  125.7    100%     52.6%    46.0%    1.4%      66.2     57.8    1.8 

Sensitivity Analysis 

Calculate Kerry's vote share over a range of new and returning Gore vote shares.

The True Vote scenario is the most-likely base case.

Kerry    Kerry Share of New voters (DNV in 2000)                      

%Gore    53.0%    55.0%    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%

         Kerry Vote share

95%      53.1%    53.6%    54.1%    54.6%    55.1%

93%      52.4%    52.9%    53.4%    53.8%    54.3%

91%      51.7%    52.1%    52.6%    53.1%    53.6%

89%      50.9%    51.4%    51.9%    52.4%    52.9%

87%      50.2%    50.7%    51.2%    51.6%    52.1%

         Kerry Margin (millions)                     

95%      9.6      10.8     12.1     13.3     14.5 

93%      7.8      9.0      10.2     11.4     12.7 

91%      5.9      7.1      8.4      9.6      10.8 

89%      4.1      5.3      6.5      7.7      9.0 

87%      2.2      3.5      4.7      5.9      7.1 

_________________________________________________________ 

2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)

(13047 respondents) 

122.3m recorded votes

Kerry wins by 4.5m votes

                          Vote share                Votes (mil)               

         Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      20.8     17%      57%      41%      2%        11.9    8.5       0.4 

Gore     47.7     39%      91%      8%       1%        43.4    3.8       0.5 

Bush     50.1     41%      10%      90%      0%        5.0     45.1      0.0   

Other    3.7      3%       64%      17%      19%       2.3      0.6      0.7 

Total    122.3    100%     51.2%    47.5%    1.3%      62.6    58.1      1.6 

______________________________________________________________

2004 Final Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)

(13660 respondents) 

Bush wins by 2.8m votes

                          Vote share                Votes (mil)               

         Voted    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      20.8     17%      54%      45%      1%        11.2     9.4      0.2 

Gore     45.3     37%      90%      9%       1%        40.7     4.1      0.5 

Bush     52.6     43%      9%       91%      0%        4.7     47.9      0.0   

Other    3.7      3%       71%      21%      8%        2.6      0.8      0.3 

Total    122.3    100%     48.5%    50.7%    0.8%      59.3     62.1     1.0 

 

___________________________________________________________________________

Implausible Gore 2000 Voter Turnout in 2004 Required to Match the Recorded Vote

 

To believe that Bush won by 3 million votes in 2004, you must also believe that 60% of Gore voters returned to the polls as opposed to 95% of Bush voters.

Objective: Determine Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004 required to match the recorded vote.

Data
2000 recorded vote: 105.4m
2004 recorded vote: 122.3m
2004 Census total votes cast: 125.7m
2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)

Assumptions
1.25% Annual voter mortality
95% turnout of Bush 2000 voters in 2004

Conclusions
To match the recorded 2004 vote, you must believe that only 60% of Gore 2000 voters turned out to vote .You must believe that 29 million Gore voters and 45 million Bush voters returned to vote in 2004. A 16 million excess of returning Bush voters is implausible. Therefore, so is the official vote. But saying the official vote is “ implausible” is an understatement. The official election results are bogus. Kerry did not lose by 3 million votes. He won by 8-10 million votes. And that is plausible if you just crunch the numbers. Read on.

 

 
Election Calculator Model

 

Maximum number of 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004

 

2000   Voted  Died   Alive
Gore   51.00  2.53   48.47
Bush   50.46  2.54   47.91
Other  3.96   0.20   3.76
                                 
Total  105.42 5.27   100.15
 

 

Implausible Scenario

60% Gore voter turnout

Bush wins by 3.3 million votes
 

Turnout       Voted  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other
DNV      -    47.6   37.8%  57%    41%    2%
Gore    60%   29.0   23.1%  91%    9%     0%
Bush    95%   45.5   36.2%  10%    90%    0%
Other   95%   3.6    2.8%   64%    17%    19%
                                 
Total   78.2  125.7  100%   48.1%  50.7%  1.2%
                    125.7   60.4   63.7   1.6

 

Plausible “True Vote” Scenario

95% Gore voter turnout

Kerry wins by 8.0 million votes
                          
Turnout       Voted  Mix    Kerry  Bush   Other

DNV      -    30.6   24.3%  57%    41%    2%

Gore    95%   46.0   36.6%  91%    9%     0%

Bush    95%   45.5   36.2%  10%    90%    0%

Other   95%   3.6    2.8%   64%    17%    19%

                                 

Total   95.1  125.7  100%   52.6%  46.4%  1.0%

                    125.7   66.2   58.2   1.3

 

Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry wins all scenarios in which Gore voter turnout is 76% or greater.

Scenario I: 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout vs. 76% Gore voter turnout
Kerry wins by 1.8m - a 50.1% share.

Scenario II: 99% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 5.1m - a 51.5% share.

Scenario III: 95% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 7.0m votes - a 52.2% vote share.
 
Scenario IV: 91% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 8.8m - a 53.0% share.

Bush2k   Gore Voter Turnout in 2004                   
Voter  60.0%  68.0%  76.0%  84.0%  92.0%
Turnout
in'04    Kerry National Vote
91%    48.8%  49.8%  50.9%  51.9%  53.0%
93%    48.4%  49.5%  50.5%  51.6%  52.6%
95%    48.0%  49.1%  50.1%  51.2%  52.2%
97%    47.7%  48.7%  49.8%  50.8%  51.9%
99%    47.3%  48.4%  49.4%  50.5%  51.5%
                                 
         Kerry Margin (millions)               
91%    (1.4)  1.1    3.7    6.2    8.8
93%    (2.4)  0.2    2.8    5.3    7.9
95%    (3.3)  (0.7)  1.8    4.4    7.0
97%    (4.2)  (1.6)  0.9    3.5    6.0
99%    (5.1)  (2.6)  0.0    2.6    5.1

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

 

Weights based on adjusted 2000 recorded vote / 2004 recorded vote

Adjusted 2000 recorded vote: reduce by 3.5% mortality; assume 95% turnout

 

Kerry wins by 52.6-46.4% (66.1-58.4 million).

 

Voted2k    Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

DNV        27.02    21.49%   57%      41%      2%      

Gore       48.08    38.23%   91%      8%       1%      

Bush       47.56    37.82%   10%      90%      0%      

Other      3.08     2.46%    71%      21%      8%      

                                                     

Share      Total    100.0%   52.56%   46.43%   1.0%    

Votes      125.74   125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27    

                                                     

 

Gore              

for                DNV2k for Kerry                                    

Kerry      51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%

 

                    Kerry Vote Share

85%        49.0%    49.2%    49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.3%

86%        49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%    50.7%

87%        49.7%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%

88%        50.1%    50.3%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%

89%        50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%

90%        50.9%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%

91%        51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.56%

                                                     

 

Gore              

for                Bush 2000 voters for Kerry                         

Kerry      7.0%     7.5%     8.0%     8.5%     9.0%     9.5%     10.0%

 

                     Kerry Vote Share

85%        49.1%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%

86%        49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%

87%        49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%

88%        50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%

89%        50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%

90%        51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%

91%        51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.56%

                                              

___________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II

 

Weights based on adjusted 2000 recorded vote / 2004 total votes cast

Adjusted 2000 recorded vote: reduce by 3% mortality; assume 95% turnout

 

Kerry wins by 52.7-46.3% (66.2-58.2 million).

 

Voted2k Votes      Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV     29.22      23.24%   57%      41%      2%

Gore    47.00      37.38%   91%      8%       1%

Bush    46.50      36.98%   10%      90%      0%

Other    3.02      2.40%    71%      21%      8%

 

Total                100%   52.66%   46.31%   1.03%

        125.74     125.74   66.22    58.22    1.30

                           

 

Gore      

for                   DNV2k for Kerry                                           

Kerry      51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%

                     Kerry Vote Share

85%        49.0%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%

86%        49.4%    49.6%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.6%    50.8%

87%        49.8%    50.0%    50.2%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%

88%        50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%

89%        50.5%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%

90%        50.9%    51.1%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.1%    52.3%

91%        51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.66%

 

 

Gore              

for                   Bush 2000 voters for Kerry      

Kerry      6.0%     7.0%     8.0%     9.0%     10.0%    11.0%    12.0%

                      Kerry Vote Share

85%        48.9%    49.3%    49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%

86%        49.3%    49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%

87%        49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%

88%        50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%

89%        50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%    52.7%

90%        50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    51.9%    52.3%    52.7%    53.0%

91%        51.2%    51.6%    51.9%    52.3%    52.66%   53.0%    53.4%

 

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis III – Uncounted and Switched Vote Rates

 

Uncounted Votes: 3.45mm (2.74%) of 125.74mm cast

Uncounted share: Kerry 75%/ Bush 24%/ Other 1%

Switched-votes: 4.49mm (6.8%) of 66.1mm Kerry total votes cast

 

Base case: True Vote = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched

 

 

           Kerry    Bush     Other    Total            Kerry    Bush     Other

Recorded   59.03    62.04    1.23     122.30           48.27%   50.73%   1.00%

Uncounted   2.58    0.83     0.03     3.45             2.06%    0.66%    0.03%

Cast       61.61    62.87    1.26     125.74           49.00%   50.00%   1.00%

Switched   4.49     -4.49    0.00     0.00             3.57%    -3.57%   0.00%

 

True       66.10    58.38    1.26     125.74           52.57%   46.43%   1.00%

Exit Poll  65.13    59.35    0.88     125.74           51.80%   47.20%   1.00%

 

Unctd      Switched         Kerry                    

Dem%       0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%         48.3%    48.7%    49.2%    49.7%    50.2%    50.7%    51.2%    51.6%

1%         48.5%    49.0%    49.5%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.4%    51.9%

2%         48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.2%    51.7%    52.2%

3%         49.1%    49.6%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.0%    52.5%

4%         49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%    52.3%    52.8%

5%         49.6%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%    51.6%    52.1%    52.6%    53.1%                                                         

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

State and National Pre-election Polls

 

The Election Model: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation 

 

The final state (weighted) pre-election poll averages were Kerry 47.88– Bush 46.89%. The average of 18 national polls was nearly identical: 47.17- 46.89%. Assuming that Kerry would capture 75% of the undecided vote, the 2004 Election Model  Monte Carlo Simulation determined that that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes. His 2-party vote share was projected to be 51.8% with a 99.8% EV win probability.

 

These graphs depict the 2004 projection trend:

 

Independent National Pollsters Monthly Average Trend

 

National State–weighted average Trend

 

Electoral and National Vote Projection Trend

 

Kerry Electoral Vote Frequency Histogram

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

National Pre-election Monthly Polling Trend

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

 

In the Nov.1 Election Model, Kerry led the final 18 national pre-election polls by 47.17-46.89%.  Nine polls were registered voter (RV) and 9 were likely voter (LV). Kerry led in 11, Bush in 6.  The final Election Day Zogby and Harris LV polls were not included in the Nov.1 election model. Both had Kerry winning by 50-47%.  But that was before the allocation of undecided voters which Harris and Zogby said were breaking 2-1 to 4-1 for Kerry.

 

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) , Kerry won the 6% of voters who decided on Election Day by 53-40%; he won the 10% who decided in the final month by 60-38%.  There is no doubt that Kerry won a solid majority of late undecided voters. The Election Model included a sensitivity analysis based on 5 undecided voter scenarios in which Kerry was projected to win 60, 67, 75, 80 and 87% of the undecided vote.  

 

The following 2004 National Pre-election Polls Monthly Trend of projections assumes that 75% of undecided voters break for Kerry. Kerry led the pre-election poll average every month except for January and September. There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between the Bush average monthly approval rating and polling share.  

 

The Bush 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day is a key indicator of fraud, based on the following correlation analysis of pre-election national polls and the mysterious divergence of National Exit Poll approval weights from the average.

 

There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s average monthly approval rating and his average national pre-election poll.

 

Bush approval ratings

Date     Nwk      Fox      CNN      Pew      Harris   CBS      ABC      Time     NBC      AP       Zogby         Mean

 

Jan-04   50       58       60       56       na       50       58       54       54       56       49        54.4

Feb-04   48       48       51       48       51       50       50       54       na       47       na        49.5

Mar-04   48       48       49       46       na       51       50       na       50       48       na        48.8

Apr-04   49       50       52       48       48       46       51       49       na       48       47        48.6

May-04   42       48       47       44       na       41       47       46       47       48       42        45.2

 

Jun-04   na       48       49       48       50       42       47       na       45       48       46        47.0

Jul-04   48       47       47       46       na       45       50       50       48       50       49        47.8

Aug-04   45       51       51       46       48       46       50       51       47       49       44        48.0

Sep-04   48       50       52       46       45       48       50       53       47       54       47        49.1

Oct-04   46       49       46       44       na       49       53       53       49       47       49        48.5

 

                                                                     

National Pre-election polls vs. Bush approval

 

Average monthly pre-election polling

 

         Jan      Feb      Mar      April    May      June     July     Aug      Sept     Oct

Kerry    40.78    47.80    47.58    46.31    46.86    46.64    47.47    47.40    44.33    47.17

Bush     51.56    46.10    44.83    45.62    44.71    45.71    45.20    45.40    48.28    46.89

 

Average monthly approval

           54.4   49.5     48.8     48.6     45.2     47.0     47.8     48.0     49.1     48.5

  

Projections (75% of undecided to Kerry)

 

Kerry    45.78    51.62    52.52    51.62    52.43    51.62    52.22    52.05    49.12    50.88

Bush     53.22    47.38    46.48    47.38    46.57    47.38    46.78    46.95    49.88    48.12

Other    1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00

                                                                                      

2-party                                                                               

Kerry    46.53    52.38    53.27    52.37    53.18    52.38    52.97    52.80    49.88    51.63

Bush     53.47    47.62    46.73    47.63    46.82    47.62    47.03    47.20    50.12    48.37

                                                                                      

 

National Pre-election polls and Kerry projected vote

 

TIPP                                                                                  

Kerry    na       44       45       40       43       43       46       44       46       44

Bush     na       41       43       44       42       44       43       44       45       45

Proj     na      54.5     53.3     51.3     53.5     52.0     53.5     52.3     52.0     51.5

 

ABC                                                                                   

Kerry    na       52       53       48       49       53       47       49       45       48

Bush     na       43       44       49       47       45       49       48       51       47

Proj     na       55.0     54.5     49.5     51.3     53.8     49.3     50.5     47.3     51.0

                                                                                      

AP                                                                                    

Kerry    37       na       45       44       43       43       45       48       42       49

Bush     54       na       46       45       46       46       49       45       51       46

Proj     43.0     na       51.0     51.5     50.5     50.5     48.8     52.5     46.5     52.0

 

NWK                                                                                   

Kerry    41       50       48       50       46       46       51       52       45       45

Bush     52       45       45       43       45       45       45       44       50       48

Proj     45.5     53.0     52.5     54.5     52.0     52.0     53.3     54.3     48.0     49.5

 

ARG                                                                                   

Kerry    47       48       50       50       47       48       49       49       46       49

Bush     46       46       43       44       44       46       45       46       47       48

Proj     51.5     51.8     54.5     53.8     53.0     51.8     52.8     52.0     50.5     50.5

                                                                                      

NBC                                                                                   

Kerry    35       na       43       43       42       44       45       45       46       47

Bush     54       na       46       46       46       45       47       47       49       48

Proj     42.5     na       50.5     50.5     50.3     51.5     50.3     50.3     49.0     50.0

 

FOX                                                                                   

Kerry    32       43       44       42       42       42       42       45       43       48

Bush     54       47       44       43       42       48       43       44       45       45

Proj     41.8     49.8     52.3     52.5     53.3     48.8     52.5     52.5     51.3     52.5

 

CBS                                                                                   

Kerry    48       47       48       48       49       45       49       45       41       46

Bush     43       46       43       43       41       44       44       44       49       47

Proj     54.0     51.5     54.0     54.0     55.8     52.5     53.5     52.5     47.8     50.5

                                                                                      

Gallup                                                                                

Kerry    43       48       52       46       49       48       51       48       44       48

Bush     55       49       44       51       47       49       44       47       52       46

Proj     43.8     49.5     54.3     47.5     51.3     49.5     54.0     51.0     46.3     51.8

 

Pew                                                                                   

Kerry    41       47       48       47       50       46       46       47       40       46

Bush     52       47       44       46       45       48       44       45       48       45

Proj     45.5     50.8     53.3     51.5     53.0     49.8     52.8     52.3     48.3     52.0

 

LAT                                                                                   

Kerry    na       na       na       49       49       51       48       46       43       48

Bush     na       na       na       46       46       44       46       49       47       47

Proj     na       na       na       52.0     52.0     54.0     51.8     49.0     49.8     51.0

 

Zogby                                                                                 

Kerry    na       na       48       47       47       44       48       50       44       47

Bush     na       na       46       44       42       42       43       43       47       48

Proj     na       na       51.8     53.0     54.5     53.8     54.0     54.5     50.0     50.0

 

TIME                                                                                  

Kerry    43       48       na       na       51       51       50       46       44       46

Bush     54       50       na       na       46       46       45       46       48       51

Proj     44.5     48.8     na       na       52.5     52.5     53.0     51.3     49.3     47.5

 

Dem Corp                                                                              

Kerry    na       51       47       48       49       49       50       52       49       48

Bush     na       47       50       49       47       48       47       45       49       47

Proj     na       51.8     48.5     49.5     51.3     50.5     51.5     53.5     49.8     51.0

 

Marist                                                                                

Kerry    na       na       na       na       na       na       45       45       45       49

Bush     na       na       na       na       na       na       44       44       47       48

Proj     na       na       na       na       na       na       52.5     52.5     50.3     50.5

 

Harris                                                                                

Kerry    na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       48

Bush     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       48       47

Proj     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       49.8     51.0

 

Economist                                                                                      

Kerry    na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       49

Bush     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       45

Proj     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       51.3     52.8

 

ICR                                                                                   

Kerry    na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       43       44

Bush     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       50       46

Proj     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       47.5     50.8

 

 

 

 

Date Poll Size Type KERRY BUSH

           

November          

2 Harris  1509 LV 48 47

2 Zogby   1200 LV 47 48

1 Marist  1166 LV 49 48

1 Econ    2903 RV 49 45

1 TIPP    1284 LV 44 45

1 CBS     1125 RV 46 47

 

October

31 FOX    1400 RV 48 45

31 DemCor 1018 LV 48 47

31 Gallup 1866 RV 48 46

31 NBC    1014 LV 47 48

           

31 ABC    3511 RV 48 47

30 ARG    1258 LV 49 48

30 Pew    2408 RV 46 45

29 Nwk    1005 RV 45 48

26 ICR     817 RV 44 46

           

24 LAT    1698 RV 48 47  

21 Time    803 LV 46 51  

20 AP      976 LV 49 46  

                       

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

State Pre-election Polling Trend

 

The Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation forecast was updated during the four months leading up to the election as new state polling data was introduced. The projections below assume that Kerry, running against the unpopular Bush, would win 60-75% of undecided voters (UVA).

 

                                       7-Sep          7-Oct           1-Nov Final     

                                   Kerry   Bush     Kerry   Bush      Kerry   Bush

Before UVA:

Unweighted Average                 43.94   47.65    46.84   46.86     45.70   47.60 

Weighted Average                   45.54   46.45    47.97   46.66     47.88   46.89                  

 

Projection (75% UVA):

2-party vote                       51.54   48.46    51.99   48.01     51.80   48.20

Total vote (Other 1%)              50.79   48.21    51.24   47.76     51.05   47.95

 

Projection (60% UVA):

2-party vote                       50.71   49.29    51.10   48.90     51.02   48.98

Total vote (Other 1%)              50.21   48.79    50.60   48.40     50.52   48.48

 

 

State    Date    Pollster         Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush

 

AL       Oct 27   Survey USA       34       54       40       56       39       57

AK       Sep 11   ARG              33       56       39       55       30       57

AZ       Oct 26   Rasmussen        42       45       47       50       45       50

AR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      47       48       47       47       48       48

CA       Oct 27   Field Poll       50       42       51       43       49       42

 

CO       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       49       48       47       48

CT       Oct 28   Research 2000    45       38       47       38       52       42

DE       Sep 25   W Chester U      55       42       45       38       45       38

DC       Sep 13   ARG              86       9        78       11       78       11

FL       Oct 30   Zogby            44       48       50       48       50       47

 

GA       Oct 29   Zogby            38       55       42       53       42       52

HI       Oct 20   SMS Res          48       41       51       41       45       45

ID       Sep 10   ARG              25       55       30       59       30       59

IL       Oct 29   Survey USA       52       38       55       38       54       42

IN       Oct 29   Survey USA       40       52       40       53       39       58

 

IA       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       51       44       50       44

KS       Oct 27   Survey USA       36       56       35       57       37       60

KY       Oct 20   Bluegrass        39       56       38       53       39       56

LA       Oct 22   SE LA U          36       52       42       50       40       48

ME       Oct 21   Zogby            49       44       42       39       50       39

 

MD       Oct 29   Survey USA       53       42       48       45       54       43

MA       Oct  5   Merrimack        56       30       64       27       64       27

MI       Oct 30   Zogby            48       44       52       42       52       45

MN       Oct 30   Zogby            46       46       53       44       52       44

MS       Sep 17   ARG              30       61       42       51       42       51

 

MO       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      45       49       49       50       44       49

MT       Oct 20   Mason-Dixon      33       53       36       54       36       57

NE       Oct 20   RKM Research     33       62       30       61       32       61

NV       Oct 29   Survey USA       48       46       48       47       49       49

NH       Oct 30   ARG              51       43       51       44       47       47

 

NJ       Oct 29   Survey USA       50       46       50       45       50       42

NM       Oct 30   ARG              42       45       55       43       49       49

NY       Oct 28   Survey USA       56       37       53       41       57       39

NC       Oct 26   Mason-Dixon      45       51       47       50       47       50

ND       Oct 19   Minn St U        33       61       33       62       35       55

 

OH       Oct 30   Zogby            42       48       48       47       50       47

OK       Oct 24   Wilson Res       38       57       29       52       28       61

OR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      54       43       55       44       50       44

PA       Oct 30   Zogby            46       47       52       46       50       45

RI       Oct 27   Survey USA       49       25       55       37       56       36

 

SC       Oct 24   Survey USA       42       53       37       55       42       55

SD       Oct 24   McLaughlin       40       54       40       52       42       52

TN       Oct 21   Mason-Dixon      50       48       48       50       48       50

TX       Oct 28   Survey USA       33       57       37       58       37       59

UT       Oct 28   Dan Jones        22       67       27       64       24       69

 

VT       Oct 12   Research2k       51       36       50       40       53       40

VA       Oct 29   Survey USA       45       49       47       50       47       51

WA       Oct 27   Strat Vision     48       43       54       44       52       44

WV       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      42       49       44       50       46       49

WI       Oct 30   Zogby            49       45       51       48       51       44

WY       Sep 11   ARG              28       68       29       65       29       65

 

___________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Weekly Average Trend

 

Although Bush led in the unweighted average, Kerry led the weighted average trend (based on the 1992-2000 average state vote) from July to Election Day, except for the first two weeks in September. The projections assume Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.

 

Poll      Unweighted       Weighted            2-party         Projected        

Date     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush

2-Jul    43.5     46.5     45.4     44.6     50.5     49.5     52.2     46.8

10-Jul   43.8     46.7     45.8     44.9     50.5     49.5     52.0     47.0

17-Jul   44.5     46.5     46.5     44.3     51.2     48.8     52.6     46.4

24-Jul   44.2     46.1     45.6     43.6     51.1     48.9     52.9     46.1

 

2-Aug    44.4     46.5     46.3     44.6     50.9     49.1     52.3     46.7

10-Aug   44.3     46.4     46.4     44.3     51.2     48.8     52.7     46.3

18-Aug   44.1     46.4     46.2     44.3     51.0     49.0     52.6     46.4

26-Aug   45.2     47.5     47.2     46.6     50.3     49.7     51.1     47.9

 

7-Sep    43.9     47.6     45.5     46.5     49.5     50.5     50.8     48.2

14-Sep   43.7     48.4     45.6     47.3     49.1     50.9     50.2     48.8

22-Sep   45.0     48.7     47.3     47.1     50.1     49.9     50.8     48.2

29-Sep   44.1     47.6     46.0     45.5     50.3     49.7     51.7     47.3

 

7-Oct    45.7     47.6     47.9     46.7     50.7     49.3     51.2     47.8

14-Oct   45.4     47.9     47.3     46.7     50.3     49.7     51.0     48.0

21-Oct   46.0     48.1     48.4     46.4     51.1     48.9     51.5     47.5

28-Oct   45.4     47.4     47.1     45.9     50.7     49.3     51.6     47.4

 

1-Nov    45.55    48.28    47.88    46.89    50.52    49.48    51.05    47.95

 

___________________________________________________________________

 

Pre-election Battleground State Polls

 

Final pre-election Zogby polls for nine battleground states were included in the Election Model Monte Carlo simulation forecast.  Kerry was leading in 8 of the 9 states by an average of 50.2-44.8%.  The base case assumption was that he would capture 75% of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by a 53.7-45.9% margin.  The conservative assumption was that he would capture 55% UVA and win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.  He won just 4 by 50.1- 49.4%.  The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states, a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.

 

                           75% UVA            55% UVA                                 

Zogby   Oct. 31 Poll       Projection       Projection        Recorded          75% UVA   

State    Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Dev      Prob

 

CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     49.4     50.0     47.4     52.1     2.97     3.27%

FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     51.4     48.2     47.3     52.3     4.65     0.20%                              

IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     53.1     46.5     49.5     50.1     4.73     0.17%

ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.6     43.6     54.1     45.1     3.54     1.42%                                                                                            

 

MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     53.4     46.1     51.5     48.0     2.40     6.83%

MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     53.8     45.5     51.5     47.9     3.08     2.82%                              

OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     51.7     48.4     48.9     51.1     3.30     2.03%

PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     52.8     47.3     51.3     48.7     2.48     6.18%

WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     53.5     46.0     49.9     49.6     4.43     0.30%

                                                                                                        

Mean     50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     52.7     46.8     50.1     49.5     3.51     2.58%

 

 

Probability of average deviation (in parenthesis):

 

Sample   MoE     75% UVA (3.51%)     55% UVA (2.58%)

1000     3.16%   1 in 68             1 in 19 

6000     1.29%   1 in 20 million     1 in 25 thousand                         

9000     1.05%   1 in 30 billion     1 in 1.5 million       

 

 

Comparison of Zogby pre-election polls and unadjusted exit polls

 The 9-poll projection average was within 0.5% of the exit poll average.

 

Average of 9 Battleground states

Poll       Kerry   Bush

Zogby      50.2   44.8 (final pre-election polls)

Projection 53.7   45.9 (75% undecided to Kerry)

Exit (WPE) 53.2   45.8

 

        

         Zogby Poll         Projection      Exit Poll            Recorded     

St       Kerry Bush        Kerry   Bush     Kerry Bush          Kerry Bush   

                                                                     

CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     50.1    48.6        47.4   52.1   

FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     50.9     48.3        47.3   52.3   

IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     50.7     48.4        49.5   50.1   

ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.5     42.7        54.1   45.1   

MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     54.4     44.7        51.5   48.0   

 

MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     55.7     43.0        51.5   47.9   

OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     54.2     45.4        48.9   51.1   

PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     55.3     44.0        51.3   48.7   

WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     52.0     47.0        49.9   49.6   

                                                                                      

Average  50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     53.2     45.8        50.1   49.5   

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

State Exit Polls

 

Pre-election Projections vs. Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

 

The pre-election 2004 Election Model predicted that Kerry would win 337 EV based on the final state pre-election polls, assuming that he captured 75% of undecided voters. The post-election True Vote Model determined that Kerry actually won 336 electoral votes. This was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll,  assuming 95% turnout of 2000 voters and a 75% Kerry share of  3.4mm uncounted votes (2004 Census). 

 

The actual recorded state vote shares consistently understated Kerry’s pre-election and 12:22am exit poll shares.  But aggregate weighted pre-election state and national poll projections matched the 12:22am exit polls. If, as the naysayers claim, the exit polls were biased for Kerry, do they also suggest that the close match between pre-election and exit polls imply that the pre-election polls were biased as well?

 

 

                Final NEP      Recorded        2-party      

               Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush

               47.78   51.22   48.27   50.73   48.76   51.24

                                                    

UVA: percentage of undecided allocated to Kerry

2-party: 0.75% of 3rd party to Kerry, 0.25% to Bush                                         

 

                  Final Poll       Projection        2-party

                 Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush

PRE-ELECTION

75% UVA                                                     

National         47.17    46.89    50.88    48.12    51.63   48.37

State            47.88    46.89    51.05    47.95    51.80    48.20

 

60% UVA                                                     

National         47.17    46.89    50.13    48.87    50.88    49.12

State            47.88    46.89    50.42    48.58    51.17    48.83

 

EXIT POLLS

NEP Gender       50.78    48.22    50.78    48.22    51.53    48.47

NEP Voted 2k     51.41    47.59    51.41    47.59    52.16    47.84

State (Gender)   50.33    48.88    50.33    48.88    50.92    49.08

State (WPE)      51.81    48.19    51.81    48.19   52.51    47.49  

                                                            

MODELS

Optimizer 1      51.62    47.37    51.62    47.37    52.15    47.85 (1250 precincts grouped by partisanship)

Optimizer 2      51.62    47.37    51.62    47.37    52.15    47.85 (Big City, Small City, Suburban, Small Town, Rural)

Optimizer 3      51.77    47.21    51.77    47.21    52.30    47.70 (States grouped by partisanship)

True Vote        52.57    46.43    52.57    46.43    53.32    46.68

Calculator        53.45   45.50    53.45    45.50   54.15    45.85

 

Optimizer: 1250 E-M precinct WPE, partisanship response rates

True Vote: 2000 recorded voter turnout, 0.87% mortality, 95% turnout

Calculator: 2000 Census voter turnout, 1.22% voter mortality, 95% turnout

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Interactive Election Simulation 

 

State pre-election projections and exit poll simulations vs. the recorded vote

 

The 2004 Election Simulation Model contains worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls, 2) 18 national pre-election polls, 3) 12:22am National Exit Poll, 4) “How Voted in 2000” demographic sensitivity analysis,  5) state and precinct exit poll response optimization analysis; 6) Gender vote analysis;

7) Ohio exit poll and 8) Census 2004 vote data.

 

The key assumptions are user-entered. Pre-election: undecided voter allocation; Exit Poll: “cluster” effect.

 

Sample Simulation             

Input Assumptions:

Undecided to Kerry: 75.0%                                                          

Exit Poll Cluster Effect: 30%                                                              

Exit Poll Data based on: Edison-Mitofsky WPE                               

                                                                                           

Kerry Electoral Vote:         

Mean:    338   

Median:  336  

Maximum: 364  

Minimum: 302  

 

Win Prob: 100%

                                                                                                           

                 Pre      Exit     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Kerry    Kerry   -Exceed MoE-      Vote Discrepancy

                  MoE     MoE      Pre      Pre      Exit     Exit     PreSim   ExitSim Recorded Pre     Exit      Pre     Exit     Diff

         Wtd Avg  3.92     3.17     47.69    47.02    51.81    47.19    50.77    51.85    48.28    19       23     (2.5)    (3.6)    (1.1)

         EV                                                                                                                

AL       9        3.91     4.64     39       57       42.5     56.8     43.6     40.6     36.9     AL       -      (6..7)    (3.8)    2.9

AK       3        3.88     4.14     30       57       40.3     56.3     39.3     44.1     35.6     -        AK     (3.7)    (8.5)    (4.8)

AR       6        3.96     2.95     45       50       44.8     54.1     48.9     45.9     44.6     AR       -      (4..4)    (1.4)    3.0

AZ       10       3.96     3.40     46       48       46.7     52.6     51.1     45.3     44.4     AZ       -      (6..7)    (0.9)    5.7

CA       55       3.93     2.89     49       42       59.8     38.9     56.3     59.6     54.4     -        CA     (1.8)    (5.1)    (3.3)

                                                                                                               

CO       9        3.96     2.54     47       48       50.1     48.6     52.6     50.4     47.1     CO       CO     (5.5)    (3.4)    2.2

CT       7        3.93     4.25     52       42       62.2     36.1     52.1     62.4     54.3     -        CT      2.2      8.1)    (10.3)

DE       3        3.91     4.53     45       38       61.3     37.8     60.2     61.9     53.4     DE       DE     (6.9)    (8.5)    (1.6)

DC       3        2.73     2.50     78       11       90.9     7.6      85.7     90.8     89.4     DC       -       3..8      1.4)    (5.1)

FL       27       3.96     2.39     50       47       50.9     48.3     51.7     51.6     47.1     FL       FL     (4.5)    (4.5)    0.0

                                                                                                              

GA       15       3.95     3.22     42       52       42.5     56.9     45.0     43.3     41.4     -        -      (3..6)    (1.9)    1.8

HI       4        3.96     5.69     45       45       56.4     42.9     49.4     56.3     54.0     HI       -       4..6      2.3)    (6.9)

ID       4        3.85     5.08     30       59       30.8     67.9     36.2     28.7     30.3     ID       -      (6.0)     1.6      7.5

IL       21       3.92     3.38     54       42       57.0     42.3     54.8     57.8     54.8     -        -       0..0     (3.0)    (3.0)

IN       11       3.90     4.12     39       58       40.0     59.2     39.1     41.1     39.3     -      &nbbsp; -       0..1     (1.8)    (1.9)

                                                                                               

IA       7        3.94     2.55     50       44       50.7     48.4     54.6     51.1     49.3     IA       -       (5.3)    (1.8)    3.4

KS       6        3.87     4.74     37       60       37.5     61.2     36.2     38.6     36.6     -        -      &nbbsp; 0.4      (2.0)    (2.4)

KY       8        3.92     3.89     39       56       39.6     59.6     42.4     38.5     39.7     -      &nbbsp; -       (22.7)    1.2      3.9

LA       9        3.96     3.10     40       48       44.1     54.8     47.8     42.9     42.3     LA       -       (55.5)    (0.6)    4.9

ME       4        3.91     2.86     50       39       55.5     42.7     55.5     53.9     53.6     -        -       (11.9)    (0.3)    1.6

                                                                                                               

MD       10       3.93     3.99     54       43       60.0     38.9     53.3     63.3     56.0     -        MD       2.7     (7.3)   (10.0)

MA       12       3.60     4.03     64       27       64.8     33.9     70.3     64.4     62.1     MA       -      &nbbsp; (8.2)    (2.3)    5.8

MI       17       3.95     2.57     52       45       54.4     44.7     54.6     53.3     51.2     -        -      &nbbsp; (3.3)    (2.1)    1.3

MN       10       3.94     2.72     52       44       55.7     43.0     48.7     55.2     51.2     -      &nbbsp; MN       2.5      (4.0)    (6.6)

MS       6        3.95     4.47     42       51       45.8     53.4     47.0     47.1     40.2     MS       MS       (6.8)    (6.9)    (0.1)

                                                                                                               

MO       11       3.96     2.74     44       49       49.0     50.4     47.2     50.6     46.1     -        MO       (1.1)    (4.5)    (3.4)

MT       3        3.90     4.92     36       57       37.7     60.0     39.0     35.8     38.6     -        -      &nbbsp; (0.4)    2.8      3.2

NE       5        3.83     4.38     32       61       36.7     61.8     39.3     35.6     32.7     NE       -      &nbbsp; (6.5)    (2.8)    3.7

NV       5        3.96     2.77     49       49       52.9     45.4     45.2     53.1     48.1     -      &nbbsp; NV        2.8     (5.0)    (7.9)

NH       4        3.96     2.94     47       47       57.0     42.1     53.8     57.0     50.4     -        NH       (3.5)    (6.7)    (3.2)

                                                                                                               

NJ       15       3.93     3.24     50       42       57.8     41.4     56.1     56.6     52.9     -        NJ       (3.2)    (3.7)    (0.5)

NM       5        3.96     2.88     49       49       52.9     45.9     47.4     52.4     49.0     -      &nbbsp; NM       1.6      (3.3)    (4.9)

NY       31       3.88     3.21     57       39       64.1     34.4     60.9     64.9     58.4     -        NY       (2.5)    (6.5)    (4.0)

NC       15       3.96     2.73     47       50       49.2     50.4     47.6     48.9     43.6     NC       NC       (4.0)    (5.3)    (1.4)

ND       3        3.92     4.72     35       55       32.9     65.5     41.0     36.3     35.5     ND       -        (5.5)    (0.8)    4.7

                                                                                                               

OH       20       3.96     2.87     50       47       54.2     45.4     52.2     54.9     48.7     -        OH       (3.5)    (6.2)    (2.8)

OK       7        3.81     3.09     28       61       33.5     66.5     38.0     30.9     34.4     -        OK       (3.6)    3.5      7.1

OR       7        3.94     3.90     50       44       51.3     47.2     52.3     52.1     51.6     -        -      &nbbsp; (0.7)    (0.5)    0.2

PA       21       3.95     2.89     50       45       55.3     44.0     54.0     56.6     51.0     -        PA       (3.1)    (5.6)    (2.5)

RI       4        3.84     4.29     56       36       61.8     36.3     63.4     59.0     59.6     -      &nbbsp; -      &nbbsp; (3.8)    0.6      4.4

                                                                                                               

SC       8        3.93     3.05     42       55       45.9     53.0     41.0     44.9     41.0     -        SC       (0.0)    (3.9)    (3.9)

SD       3        3.95     3.19     42       52       36.3     62.0     43.3     34.6     38.4     SD       SD       (4.9)    3.8      8.7

TN       11       3.96     2.98     47       50       42.8     56.5     45.7     42.7     42.5     -      &nbbsp; -        (3.2)    (0.2)    3.0

TX       34       3.88     3.01     37       59       40.6     58.7     36.7     39.4     38.2     -        -      &nbbsp;  1.5     (1.2)    (2.7)

UT       5        3.60     4.13     24       69       29.2     68.3     31.9     30.1     26.0     UT       -      &nbbsp; (5.8)    (4.1)    1.7

                                                                                                               

VT       3        3.91     4.62     53       40       66.4     31.3     55.9     71.3     59.2     -      &nbbsp; VT        3.3    (12.1)   (15.4)

VA       13       3.96     3.37     47       51       49.4     49.7     49.2     48.6     45.6     -        -      &nbbsp; (3.7)    (3.0)    0.6

WA       11       3.94     2.75     52       44       57.0     41.4     55.8     57.1     52.9     -        WA        (2.9)   (4.3)    (1.3)

WV       5        3.96     3.06     45       49       40.3     59.0     45.6     41.9     43.2     -        -         (2.4)    1.3      3.8

WI       10       3.94     2.70     51       44       52.0     47.0     51.8     50.7     49.8     -        -      &nbbsp;  (2.1)    (1.0)    1.1

WY       3        3.74     4.55     29       65       31.2     66.7     33.0     32.8     29.1     WY       -      &nbbsp;  (3.9)    (3.6)    0.3

 

___________________________________________________________

 

State Exit Poll Measures: WPE, GEO, Composite

 

Edison-Mitofsky provided 3 state exit poll estimates in their Jan. 2005 report. Bush won the recorded vote share 50.73-48.27% with 286 electoral votes.

 

WPE (Within Precinct Error) is difference between the average precinct exit poll margin and the recorded vote margin – after removing “outliers” which most likely lowered the average Kerry share. Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 51.81%.

His electoral vote was 324.

 

BEST GEO is the estimate made at close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by results or pre-election estimates. Kerry’s weighted average

national vote share was 51.02%. His electoral vote was 301.

 

COMPOSITE (12:22am) is the estimate after adjustment to pre-election estimates.  Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 50.28%.

His electoral vote was 288.

 

WPE (WPD) is the difference between the official recorded vote margin and exit poll margin and represents the “pristine” raw exit poll results. E-M did not provide the corresponding state exit poll vote shares, but these can be calculated by applying the WPE to the official recorded vote.

 

Based on the WPE measure, Kerry was a 51.8-47.2% winner.

The 2004 Election Model projected Kerry as the winner of the 2-party vote by 51.8 - 48.2%.

 

Example: Calculation of the unadjusted Ohio exit poll vote shares

 

Ohio recorded (official) vote:

B    = 50.8% = Bush official state vote share

K    = 48.7% = Kerry official state vote share

BM  =  2.1% = Bush official margin

WPE = 10.9% = Within Precinct Error

 

Bush exit poll margin:

BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = - 8.8%

 

Calculate exit poll shares:

KP = Kerry = K + 0.5* WPE

BP = Bush   = B - 0.5* WPE

 

KP = 48.7 + 5.45 = 54.15%

BP = 50.8 - 5.45 = 45.35%

 

This graph displays linear regressions of WPE, GEO and Composite exit poll discrepancies.

 

* WPE results differ substantially from the Recorded Vote and the Composite (12:22am) exit poll.

 

Estimate          RECORDED                           WPE                           BEST GEO                           COMPOSITE       

Electoral Vote    251-286                         324-214                         301-237                             288-250 

                

State    Kerry    Bush     Margin           Kerry    Bush     Margin            Kerry    Bush     Margin            Kerry    Bush     Margin

WtdAvg   48.27    50.73    -2.46      p;      51.81    47.19    4.63              51.02    48.49    2.53              50.28    49.10    1.17

                                                                                                                           

AL*      36.8     62.5     -25.6      p;      42.5     56.8     -14.3      p;       42.0     57.5     -15.5      &nbssp;      40.6     58.7     -18.1

AK*      35.5     61.1     -25.5      p;      40.3     56.3     -15.9             41.2     57.4     -16.2      &nbssp;      39.0     58.8     -19.8

AZ       44.4     54.9     -10.5      p;      46.7     52.6     -5.9      ;        46.5     53.5     -7.0       p;       46.8     53.2     -6.4

AR       44.5     54.3     -9.8      ;       44.8     54.1     -9.3      ;        46.8     52.4     -5.6       p;       47.0     52.2     -5.2

CA*      54.3     44.4     9.9              59.8     38.9     20.8              56.5     43.5     13.0              56.5     43.5     13.0

                                                                                                                           

CO*      47.0     51.7     -4.7      ;       50.1     48.6     1.4               47.0     52.5     -5.5       p;       47.7     51.4     -3.7

CT*      54.3     43.9     10.4             62.2     36.1     26.1              59.3     39.6     19.7              58.1     40.5     17.6

DE*      53.3     45.8     7.6              61.3     37.8     23.5              61.5     37.9     23.6              57.7     41.2     16.5

DC       89.2     9.3      79.8             90.9     7.6      83.2              91.1     8.1      83.0              90.2     8.4      81.8

FL*      47.1     52.1     -5.0      ;       50.9     48.3     2.6               49.2     50.3     -1.1       p;       49.3     50.1     -0.8

                                                                                                                           

GA       41.4     58.0     -16.6      p;      42.5     56.9     -14.4      p;       43.5     56.5     -13.0             43.0     57.1     -14.1

HI       54.0     45.3     8.7              56.4     42.9     13.4              56.5     43.4     13.1              53.6     46.4     7.2

ID       30.3     68.4     -38.1      p;      30.8     67.9     -37.1      p;       30.9     69.1     -38.2      &nbssp;      31.6     68.3     -36.7

IL*      54.8     44.5     10.3             57.0     42.3     14.7              57.5     42.6     14.9              57.0     42.9     14.1

IN       39.3     59.9     -20.7      p;      40.0     59.2     -19.2      p;       40.5     59.6     -19.1      &nbssp;      41.3     58.8     -17.5

                                                                                                                           

IA*      49.2     49.9     -0.7      ;       50.7     48.4     2.3               50.0     49.0     1.0               50.0     49.0     1.0

KS       36.6     62.0     -25.4      p;      37.5     61.2     -23.7      p;       36.6     62.8     -26.2      &nbssp;      34.4     64.6     -30.2

KY       39.7     59.6     -19.9      p;      39.6     59.6     -20.0      p;       40.6     58.6     -18.0      &nbssp;      40.9     58.3     -17.4

LA       42.2     56.7     -14.5      p;      44.1     54.8     -10.7      p;       43.2     56.3     -13.1      &nbssp;      44.3     54.8     -10.5

ME*      53.6     44.6     9.0              55.5     42.7     12.8              54.3     44.6     9.7               53.9     44.4     9.5

                                                                                                                           

MD*      55.9     42.9     13.0             60.0     38.9     21.1              59.4     39.7     19.7              56.6     42.5     14.1

MA*      61.9     36.8     25.2             64.8     33.9     31.0              66.3     33.6     32.7              65.7     34.2     31.5

MI*      51.2     47.8     3.4              54.4     44.7     9.7               51.8     47.3     4.5               51.9     47.1     4.8

MN*      51.1     47.6     3.5              55.7     43.0     12.8              56.7     42.4     14.3              53.7     44.9     8.8

MS*      40.2     59.0     -18.9      p;      45.8     53.4     -7.6      ;        46.2     53.2     -7.0       p;       43.4     56.0     -12.6

                                                                                                                           

MO*      46.1     53.3     -7.2      ;       49.0     50.4     -1.4      ;        47.8     52.2     -4.4       p;       47.8     52.1     -4.3

MT       38.6     59.1     -20.5      p;      37.7     60.0     -22.3      p;       37.8     59.9     -22.1      &nbssp;      37.2     60.0     -22.8

NE*      32.7     65.9     -33.2      p;      36.7     61.8     -25.1      p;       37.5     61.7     -24.2      &nbssp;      36.1     62.6     -26.5

NV*      47.9     50.5     -2.6             52.9     45.4     7.5               49.3     47.9     1.4               48.9     48.3     0.6

NH*      50.2     48.9     1.4              57.0     42.1     15.0              57.1     42.1     15.0              55.1     43.9     11.2

                                                                                                                           

NJ*      52.9     46.2     6.7              57.8     41.4     16.4              58.4     40.2     18.2              55.3     42.8     12.5

NM*      49.0     49.8     -0.8      ;       52.9     45.9     7.0               51.7     47.5     4.2               50.8     48.0     2.8

NY*      58.4     40.1     18.3             64.1     34.4     29.7              65.1     33.8     31.3              63.1     35.5     27.6

NC*      43.6     56.0     -12.4      p;      49.2     50.4     -1.1      ;        48.2     51.8     -3.6       p;       48.1     51.9     -3.8

ND       35.5     62.9     -27.4      p;      32.9     65.5     -32.6      p;       32.3     66.7     -34.4             33.3     64.9     -31.6

                                                                                                                           

OH*      48.7     50.8     -2.1      ;       54.2     45.4     8.8               53.2     46.7     6.5               51.7     48.3     3.4

OK       34.4     65.6     -31.1      p;      33.5     66.5     -33.0      p;       34.1     65.8     -31.7      &nbssp;      34.6     65.4     -30.8

OR       51.3     47.2     4.2              51.3     47.2     4.2               51.3     47.2     4.2               51.3     47.19    4.2

PA*      50.9     48.4     2.5              55.3     44.0     11.3              56.9     43.1     13.8              54.2     45.7     8.5

RI*      59.4     38.7     20.8             61.8     36.3     25.5              62.4     36.3     26.1              63.2     34.9     28.3

                                                                                                                           

SC*      40.9     58.0     -17.1      p;      45.9     53.0     -7.1      ;        46.4     52.4     -6.0       p;       45.1     53.8     -8.7

SD       38.4     59.9     -21.5      p;      36.3     62.0     -25.7      p;       34.9     63.2     -28.3      &nbssp;      36.8     61.5     -24.7

TN       42.5     56.8     -14.3      p;      42.8     56.5     -13.8      p;       40.3     58.5     -18.2      &nbssp;      41.3     57.6     -16.3

TX*      38.2     61.1     -22.9      p;      40.6     58.7     -18.1      p;       36.5     63.5     -27.0      &nbssp;      37.1     62.9     -25.8

UT*      26.0     71.5     -45.5      p;      29.2     68.3     -39.1      p;       29.9     69.2     -39.3      &nbssp;      29.9     68.3     -38.4

                                                                                                                           

VT*      58.9     38.8     20.1             66.4     31.3     35.1              67.0     30.4     36.6              64.5     32.8     31.7

VA       45.5     53.7     -8.2      ;       49.4     49.7     -0.3      ;        50.2     49.7     0.5               48.0     51.9     -3.9

WA*      52.8     45.6     7.2              57.0     41.4     15.6              54.9     44.2     10.7              54.1     44.6     9.5

WV       43.2     56.1     -12.9      p;      40.3     59.0     -18.7      p;       41.6     57.4     -15.8      &nbssp;      44.9     54.2     -9.3

WI*      49.7     49.3     0.4              52.0     47.0     5.1               52.5     46.8     5.7               49.6     49.2     0.4

WY       29.1     68.9     -39.8      p;      31.2     66.7     -35.5             34.5     63.6     -29.1      &nbssp;      31.6     66.4     -34.8

 

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

 

This is a sample run from the Monte Carlo Polling Simulation model using the WPE measure.

 

                 Cluster          10%     20%      30%      40%      50%      60%      70%      80%      90%

         States > MoE     25       24       24       22       20       17       16       15       15

         Prob:  1 in      zero     zero     zero     zero     750tr    257tr    19tr     1tr      1tr

 

        Assuming a 30% cluster effect (CE), N = 24 states exceeding the MoE for Bush

        Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST (N-1, 51, 0.025, TRUE)

        Prob = 1 – BINOMDIST (23, 51, 0.025, TRUE) = ZERO

 

        Assuming a 70% cluster effect, N=16 states. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion.

        

                                                                                                        

                 Kerry                      Kerry     Exit Poll         Recorded        Dev    Favor Exceed

         EV       EV         WPE     MoE    Win Prob  Kerry   Bush      Kerry    Bush    Prob     Bush MoE

         Total    335        7.1    30% CE    -       511.8     47.2     48.3     50.7    -         44   24

                                                                                                        

AL       9        -         11.3    4.64%    0.1%     42.5     56.8     36.9     62.5     0.9%     Bush yes

AK       3        -      &nbbsp;   9.6    4.14%    0.0%     40.3     56.3     35.6     61.2     1.3%     Bush yes

AR       6        -      &nbbsp;   0.5    2.95%    0.0%     44.8     54.1     44.6     54.3     43.4%    Bush    

AZ       10       -      &nbbsp;   4.6    3.40%    2.8%     46.7     52.6     44.4     54.9     9.2%     Bush    

CA       55       55        10.9    2.89%    100%     59.8     38.9     54.4     44.5     0.0%     Bush yes

                                                                                                        

CO       9        -      &nbbsp;   6.1    2.54%    53.1%    50.1     48.6     47.1     51.8     1.0%     Bush yes

CT       7        7         15.7    4.25%    100%     62.2     36.1     54.3     43.9     0.0%     Bush yes

DE       3        3         15.9    4.53%    100%     61.3     37.8     53.4     45.8     0.0%     Bush yes

DC       3        3          3.4    2.50%    100%     90.9     7.6      89.4     9.4      12.5%    Bush    

FL       27       27         7.6    2.39%    77.0%    50.9     48.3     47.1     52.1     0.1%     Bush yes

                                                                                                        

GA       15       -      &nbbsp;   2.2    3.22%    0.0%     42.5     56.9     41.4     58.0     25.4%    Bush    

HI       4        4          4.7    5.69%    98.6%    56.4     42.9     54.0     45.3     20.5%    Bush    

ID       4        -      &nbbsp;   1.0    5.08%    0.0%     30.8     67.9     30.3     68.4     41.8%    Bush    

IL       21       21         4.4    3.38%    100%     57.0     42.3     54.8     44.5     10.3%    Bush    

IN       11       -      &nbbsp;   1.5    4.12%    0.0%     40.0     59.2     39.3     59.9     36.3%    Bush    

                                                                                                        

IA       7        -      &nbbsp;   5.0    2.55%    70.5%    50.7     48.4     49.3     50.0     13.8%    Bush    

KS       6        -      &nbbsp;   1.7    4.74%    0.0%     37.5     61.2     36.6     62.0     35.9%    Bush    

KY       8        -      &nbbsp;  -0.1    3.89%    0.0%     39.6     59.6     39.7     59.6     48.2%    Kerry   

LA       9        -      &nbbsp;   3.8    3.10%    0.0%     44.1     54.8     42.3     56.8     12.9%    Bush    

ME       4        4          3.8    2.86%    100%     55.5     42.7     53.6     44.6     9.3%     Bush    

                                                                                                       

MD       10       10         8.1    3.99%    100%     60.0     38.9     56.0     43.0     2.4%     Bush yes

MA       12       12         5.8    4.03%    100%     64.8     33.9     62.1     36.9     9.4%     Bush    

MI       17       17         6.3    2.57%    100%     54.4     44.7     51.2     47.8     0.8%     Bush yes

MN       10       10         9.3    2.72%    100%     55.7     43.0     51.2     47.7     0.1%     Bush yes

MS       6        -      &nbbsp;  11.3    4.47%    3.3%     45.8     53.4     40.2     59.1     0.7%     Bush yes

                                                                                                        

MO       11       11         5.8    2.74%    23.7%    49.0     50.4     46.1     53.3     1.9%     Bush yes

MT       3        -      &nbbsp;  -1.8    4.92%    0.0%     37.7     60.0     38.6     59.1     36.5%    Kerry   

NE       5        -      &nbbsp;   8.1    4.38%    0.0%     36.7     61.8     32.7     66.0     3.8%     Bush    

NV       5        5         10.1    2.77%    98.0%    52.9     45.4     48.1     50.7     0.0%     Bush yes

NH       4        4         13.6    2.94%    100%     57.0     42.1     50.4     49.0     0.0%     Bush yes

                                                                                                        

NJ       15       15         9.7    3.24%    100%     57.8     41.4     52.9     46.3     0.2%     Bush yes

NM       5        5          7.8    2.88%    97.6%    52.9     45.9     49.0     49.8     0.4%     Bush yes

NY       31       31        11.4    3.21%    100%     64.1     34.4     58.4     40.1     0.0%     Bush yes

NC       15       15        11.3    2.73%    28.3%    49.2     50.4     43.6     56.0     0.0%     Bush yes

ND       3        -      &nbbsp;  -5.2    4.72%    0.0%     32.9     65.5     35.5     62.9     14.0%    Kerry   

                                                                                                        

OH       20       20        10.9    2.87%    99.8%    54.2     45.4     48.7     50.8     0.0%     Bush yes

OK       7        -      &nbbsp;  -1.9    3.09%    0.0%     33.5     66.5     34.4     65.6     27.8%    Kerry   

OR       7        7          0.0    3.90%    74.3%    51.3     47.2     51.6     47.4     44.0%    Kerry   

PA       21       21         8.8    2.89%    100%     55.3     44.0     51.0     48.5     0.2%     Bush yes

RI       4        4          4.7    4.29%    100%     61.8     36.3     59.6     38.8     15.5%    Bush    

                                                                                                        

SC       8        -      &nbbsp;  10.0    3.05%    0.4%     45.9     53.0     41.0     58.1     0.1%     Bush yes

SD       3        -      &nbbsp;  -4.2    3.19%    0.0%     36.3     62.0     38.4     59.9     9.4%     Kerry   

TN       11       -      &nbbsp;   0.5    2.98%    0.0%     42.8     56.5     42.5     56.8     42.8%    Bush    

TX       34       -      &nbbsp;   4.8    3.01%    0.0%     40.6     58.7     38.2     61.1     6.1%     Bush    

UT       5        -      &nbbsp;   6.4    4.13%    0.0%     29.2     68.3     26.0     71.6     6.6%     Bush    

                                                                                                        

VT       3        3         15.0    4.62%    100%     66.4     31.3     59.2     39.0     0.1%     Bush yes

VA       13       -      &nbbsp;   7.9    3.37%    36.3%    49.4     49.7     45.6     53.8     1.3%     Bush yes

WA       11       11         8.4    2.75%    100%     57.0     41.4     52.9     45.7     0.2%     Bush yes

WV       5        -      &nbbsp;  -5.8    3.06%    0.0%     40.3     59.0     43.2     56.1     3.1%     Kerry   

WI       10       10         4.7    2.70%    92.7%    52.0     47.0     49.8     49.4     5.2%     Bush    

WY       3        -      &nbbsp;   4.3    4.55%    0.0%     31.2     66.7     29.1     69.0     18.6%    Bush                                     

 

 _____________________________________________________________________

 

State Projections vs. Composite (12:22am) Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote Analysis

 

Kerry’s projected 2-party national vote share (before undecided voter allocation) was

1) 50.52%, based on the Election Model (1992-2000 average state turnout weights).

2) 50.37%, based on recorded 2004 state vote weights

3) 51.80% assuming 75% UVA to Kerry

 

The weighted average 2-party state vote shares (2004 recorded vote: 121.056mm):

 Projected : 50.37% = 60979 /121056

 Exit Poll   : 50.51% = 61144 /121056

 Actual      : 48.76% = 59028 /121056

 

- Based on the pre-election polls, 41 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.

- Based on the 12:22am exit polls, 43 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.

 

If Kerry won 60% of the undecided (UVA) vote, the average deviation was 0.37% between pre-election and exit poll.

This is the relationship between UVA and the average deviation:

 UVA           50     55     60     67     75               

 Dev         0.26 -0.05 -0.37 -0.81 -1.31

 

Approximately 2/3 of the deviations were distributed between -1% and +1%           

 

-  One individual led both the pre-election and exit poll in 39 states.

-  One individual led both polls in 15 of 17 battleground states.

 

 - The pre-election vote shares differed from the exit poll vote shares by less than 1% in 15 states;  

    less than 2% in 29 states; less than 3% in 32 states; less than 4% in 42 states.

 

State exit poll red-shift probabilities are close to zero, even assuming a constant conservative 3.0% MoE

The exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 16 states – all in favor of Bush. The odds: 1 in 19 trillion.

 

Kerry vote shares:

Pre-Elect: pre-election weighted state poll

Exit Poll: weighted state exit poll (12:22am)

 

Pre/Actual: pre-election poll as a percent of actual

Exit/Actual: exit poll as a percent of actual

 

Probability of discrepancy between

 Pre: pre-election poll and actual vote

 Exit: exit poll and actual vote

 

Favor:  pre-election and exit poll vote shift to (B)ush or (K)erry

 

 

         2-pty    Pre-     Exit     Actual   Pre-     Exit     Actual   Pre/   Exit/      -Probability-   Favor

Kerry    Vote    Elect    Poll     Vote     Elect    Poll     Vote    Actual   Actual     Pre     Exit    Pre Exit

WtdMean  121056   50.37%   50.51%   48.76%  60979    61144    59028    103.3%   103.6%    14.1%    12.2%   41B 43B

Mean       -      48.57% &  48.84%   47.09%    -        -      &nbbsp; -      103.4%   103.8%            

Median     -      50.00% &  49.07%   47.48%    -        -        --      102.7%   103.9%   

 

AK       302      34.48%   40.14%   36.77%   104      121      111      94%      109%      6.3%    1.2%     K  B

AL       1870     40.63%   41.08%   37.10%   760      768      694      109%     111%      0.9%    0.4%     B  B

AR       1043     50.00%   46.60%   45.07%   522      486      470      111%     103%      0.1%    15.4%    B  B

AZ       1998     47.37%   46.93%   44.72%   946      938      894      106%     105%      3.9%    7.1%     B  B

CA       12255    53.85%   55.73%   55.04%   6599     6830     6745     98%      101%     21.3%    32.3%    K  B

 

CO       2103     49.47%   49.07%   47.63%   1040     1032     1002     104%     103%     11.0%    16.9%    B  B

CT       1551     55.32%   58.47%   55.27%   858      907      857      100%     106%     48.8%    1.6%     B  B

DC       224      87.64%   91.63%   90.52%   197      205      203      97%      101%      2.7%    22.9%    K  B

DE       372      54.22%   58.44%   53.83%   202      217      200      101%     109%     39.9%    0.1%     B  B

FL       7548     51.55%   49.93%   47.48%   3891     3769     3584     109%     105%      0.3%    5.1%     B  B

 

GA       3280     44.68%   43.11%   41.65%   1466     1414     1366     107%     104%      2.2%    16.5%    B  B

HI       426      50.00%   53.32%   54.40%   213      227      232      92%      98%       0.2%    23.5%    K  K

IA       1494     53.19%   50.67%   49.66%   795      757      742      107%     102%      0.9%    25.0%    B  B

ID       590      33.71%   33.33%   30.68%   199      197      181      110%     109%      2.2%    3.8%     B  B

IL       5239     56.25%   57.13%   55.21%   2947     2993     2892     102%     103%     24.3%    10.0%    B  B

 

IN       2448     40.21%   40.97%   39.58%   984      1003     969      102%     104%     33.7%    17.7%    B  B

KS       1171     38.14%   34.60%   37.13%   447      405      435      103%     93%      25.0%    4.6%     B  K

KY       1782     41.05%   40.76%   39.99%   732      726      713      103%     102%     24.0%    30.6%    B  B

LA       1922     45.45%   44.50%   42.67%   874      855      820      107%     104%      3.2%    11.2%    B  B

MA       2875     70.33%   66.46%   62.74%   2022     1911     1804     112%     106%      0.0%    0.7%     B  B

 

MD       2359     55.67%   57.04%   56.57%   1313     1346     1334     98%      101%     27.5%    37.6%    K  B

ME       727      56.18%   54.83%   54.58%   408      399      397      103%     100%     14.4%    43.4%    B  B

MI       4793     53.61%   52.55%   51.73%   2569     2519     2479     104%     102%     10.5%    29.1%    B  B

MN       2792     54.17%   54.61%   51.76%   1512     1525     1445     105%     106%      5.4%    2.9%     B  B

MO       2715     47.31%   47.47%   46.38%   1284     1289     1259     102%     102%     26.7%    23.3%    B  B

 

MS       1130     45.16%   43.20%   40.49%   511      488      458      112%     107%      0.1%    3.6%     B  B

MT       440      38.71%   39.28%   39.50%   170      173      174      98%      99%      70.1%    44.2%    K  K

NC       3487     48.45%   47.31%   43.76%   1690     1650     1526     111%     108%      0.1%    0.9%     B  B

ND       308      38.89%   33.58%   36.09%   120      103      111      108%     93%       3.1%    4.7%     B  K

NE       767      34.41%   36.54%   33.15%   264      280      254      104%     110%     20.1%    1.2%     B  B

 

NH       672      50.00%   55.49%   50.69%   336      373      341      99%      109%     32.3%    0.1%     K  B

NJ       3581     54.35%   56.13%   53.37%   1946     2010     1911     102%     105%     25.7%    3.3%     B  B

NM       748      50.00%   51.34%   49.60%   374      384      371      101%     104%     39.5%    12.3%    B  B

NV       816      50.00%   50.66%   48.68%   408      413      397      103%     104%     19.0%    9.4%     B  B

NY       7277     59.38%   63.97%   59.29%   4321     4655     4314     100%     108%     47.7%    0.1%     B  B

 

OH       5599     51.55%   52.06%   48.94%   2886     2915     2740     105%     106%      4.1%    1.9%     B  B

OK       1464     31.46%   34.73%   34.43%   461      508      504      91%      101%      2.4%    42.1%    K  B

OR       1810     53.19%   51.22%   52.11%   963      927      943      102%     98%      23.5%    27.8%    B  K

PA       5732     52.63%   54.41%   51.26%   3017     3119     2938     103%     106%     18.0%    1.8%     B  B

RI       429      60.87%   64.24%   60.58%   261      275      260      100%     106%     42.3%    0.7%     B  B

 

SC       1600     43.30%   45.78%   41.36%   693      732      662      105%     111%      9.9%    0.2%     B  B

SD       382      44.68%   37.42%   39.09%   171      143      149      114%     96%       0.0%    13.3%    B  K

TN       2421     48.98%   41.15%   42.81%   1186     996      1036     114%     96%       0.0%    13.4%    B  K

TX       7360     38.54%   36.84%   38.49%   2837     2711     2833     100%     96%      48.6%    13.5%    B  K

UT       905      25.81%   29.93%   26.65%   234      271      241      97%      112%     28.6%    1.4%     K  B

 

VA       3172     47.96%   47.96%   45.87%   1521     1521     1455     105%     105%      8.1%    8.1%     B  B

VT       305      56.99%   65.69%   60.30%   174      201      184      95%      109%      1.4%    0.0%     K  B

WA       2815     54.17%   55.07%   53.65%   1525     1550     1510     101%     103%     36.4%    17.2%    B  B

WI       2968     53.68%   50.21%   50.19%   1593     1490     1490     107%     100%      1.0%    49.4%    B  B

WV       750      48.42%   45.19%   43.52%   363      339      327      111%     104%      0.1%    13.2%    B  B

WY       238      30.85%   32.07%   29.69%   74       76       71       104%     108%     21.9%    5.6%     B  B

_____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                            

 

 

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System - January 19, 2005

Glossary of Terms

 

Absentee/Early Voter Telephone Surveys

The surveys were conducted in 13 states that had a high proportion of absentee/early voters. The estimates from these surveys were used to adjust the exit poll estimates from Election Day to account for the absentee/early voters who can not be interviewed at the polling location on Election Day. The questionnaire responses in these surveys were also incorporated in the survey analysis in the 13 state surveys and the national survey.

 

Age-Race-Sex adjustment

An adjustment performed based upon the refusals and misses from sample voters that are observed by the interviewers at each polling location. The age, race and gender compositions in the exit poll results are adjusted to account for the differing completion rates of these demographic groups.

 

Best Survey Estimate

The computation with the lowest SEDF (Standard Error on the Difference) using only the exit poll tallies.

 

Completion Rate

The percentage of sample voters who agree to fill out the questionnaire. The rate equals completed questionnaires divided by completed questionnaires plus refusals plus missed voters who were in the sample.

 

Composite Estimate

A weighted average of the Prior Estimate and the Best Survey Estimate. The Composite Estimate is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported.

 

County Model                          

A set of computations based upon county data that is being reported by the Associated Press.

 

Critical Value (Crit) 

The t-score is the ratio of the estimated difference between the two leading candidates and the standard error on the difference (SEDF). A critical value occurs when this ratio is 2.6 or more. The critical value increases when there are 40 or fewer sample precincts. This critical value is the first of several criteria for a “Call Status.” It means there is a .995 statistical probability that the leader is the winner. It only accounts for sampling error in the estimate. It does not account for other possible sources of error or statistical bias.

  

Cross Survey                        

A procedure in which state surveys are combined to form estimates of survey characteristics. When state surveys are combined in this way, the respondent weights are adjusted so that each state survey is represented in its correct proportion of the total. The Cross Survey is different from the National Survey. The Cross Survey only includes questions common to the state surveys.

       

Decision Screens

Provide the details for the 14 different estimates that are computed for each Election Day race. In addition, these screens include details on estimated candidate votes with and without exit poll results, with and without absentee votes factored in, sampling errors for all estimates, estimates by stratum, and quality control information.

         

Integrated Model

A vote share computation based upon a composite of the estimates from the Sample Precinct Model and the County Model.

 

Interviewing Rate

Each exit poll interviewer is assigned an Interviewing Rate that is used to select sample voters as they leave the polling place. The interviewing rate is defined as the number of voters that the interviewer counts between sample voters. An interviewing rate of “1” means that the interviewer will approach every voter; an interviewing rate of “10” means that the interviewer will approach every 10th voter.

            

Miss Rate

The percentage of voters designated to be in the sample that are missed by the interviewer because the interviewer could not physically approach the voter and ask them to fill out a questionnaire.

    

National Exit Poll (National Survey)

Is based on the results from a national sample of 250 polling locations. These 250 locations are a sub-sample of the 1,480 locations that are in the state samples. In addition, 500 telephone interviews of absentee/early voters in 13 states with a high proportion of absentee/early voters were included in the National Exit Poll results. There were four different versions of the national exit poll questionnaire. One–fourth of the sample at every national exit poll location was asked to complete each version of the national questionnaire.

            

Prior Estimate

Based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. The Prior Estimate is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate on Election Day to create a Composite Estimate.

            

Projections           

Based on an estimate of the vote. The first of many requirements for projecting a winner is that the leading candidate is estimated to be ahead of his or her nearest challenger by a margin that is sufficiently larger than the standard error. That margin would have to be 2.6 (at a minimum) times the standard error on the difference between the two candidates. The probability of incorrectly concluding that the leading candidate is ahead is .005.

            

Refusal Rate

The percentage of sampled voters who are approached by the interviewer, but who refuse to fill out the questionnaire.

  

Sample Precinct Model

A set of computations under different assumptions that use either precinct level exit poll results or actual vote returns. The exit poll results and actual vote returns may be used separately or in combination.

 

Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF)

We select only one sample of precincts per state out of the many different samples that could have been selected. Each possible sample will have a slightly different estimate of the election result. A standard error is a measure of the variation in all those possible results. While most samples have results that are close to the average for all the samples, it is theoretically possible that the one sample we selected differs from the overall average. The standard error tells us the likelihood of having a sample that differs from the overall average by given amounts. For making projections we are interested in the Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF). It is computed on the difference between the top two candidates for each estimate.

 

Survey Call 1, 2, 3           

Exit poll interviewers call in the results of their interviews to our telephone centers three times during Election Day. Call1 is shortly before noon local time. Call 2 is in the late afternoon. Call 3 is during the last hour before the time the polls close. The exit poll is not complete until the Call 3 interviews are used in the computations.

            

Survey Weighting

The process by which the respondents in each survey are weighted for the exit poll analysis. This weighting process takes into account the probabilities of selection of the precinct and the sample voters within each sample precinct, the age-race-sex adjustment for non-interviews, the best estimate of the candidate vote percentages from each geographic region, and if applicable the portion of the vote that is being cast by absentee/early voters.

 

t-score          

For the value of the “t-score” see the definition of Critical Value. The “t” refers to a distribution of probabilities for these scores for small samples.

  

Within Precinct Error (WPE)

The average difference between the percentage margin for the leading candidates in the exit poll and the actual vote for all sample precincts in a state. The signed WPE gives the direction of this error; in this report a negative WPE represents a Bush overstatement in the exit poll and a positive WPE represents a Republican overstatement in the exit poll. The absolute WPE represents the total error.          

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Conservative Scenarios

 
The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate why Kerry won by assuming the following conservative assumptions:

 

1) All 105.4m Election 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004

2) All Election 2004 votes cast were counted and equal to the 122.3m recorded.

3) All Gore 2000 voters voted for Kerry; all Bush 2000 voters voted for Bush in 2004.

4) Kerry won 64% of returning Nader/other voters; Bush 17%; Nader/others 19%.
5) Kerry won 57% of new voters (did not vote in 2000); Bush 41%; Nader/others 2%.

 

1)  is impossible, since some 2000 voters died and others did not vote in 2004,

2)  is not true, since millions of votes are uncounted in every election,

3)  is not true, since a percentage of Gore and Bush voters defected,

4)  is a plausible 12:22am National Exit Poll result,

5 ) is a plausible 12:22am NEP result.

 

Based on these assumptions, a simple calculation shows that Kerry won by 63-58m with 51.64% of the vote:

Kerry    =      100% of Gore voters + 64% of Nader/other voters + 57% of New voters

63,153   =     51,003 + 2,531 + 9,619

This result approximated Kerry’s 51.81% national share based on the unadjusted state exit polls (WPE method) and closely matched the 2004 Election Model. The Monte Carlo simulation projected that Kerry would capture 51.80% of the two-party vote assuming that he won 75% of late undecided voters) and gain 337 electoral votes (based on the average of 5000 election trials).

 

These three scenarios display the effects of changes in assumptions 4 and 5 on the Kerry vote share.

 

Base Case:

Kerry captures 57% of new voters and 64% of returning Nader/other 3^rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 5.1m votes, 51.64% vote share and 337 Electoral votes.

 

Best Case:

Kerry captures 59% of new voters and 66% of returning Nader/other 3^rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 5.9m votes, 51.98% and 348 EV

 

Worst Case:

Kerry captures 55% of new voters and 62% of returning Nader/other 3^rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 4.2m votes, 51.30% and 316 EV

 

Now we will determine the True Vote by using plausible assumptions for 1,2 and 3 above.

 

The True Vote

 

a) Approximately 5m Election 2000 voters died; another 5m did not vote, assuming 95% turnout.
Therefore, there were actually 27m new voters (the net increase was 17m).

The additional 10m new voters increased Kerry's margin by 1.5m.

 

b) The NEP determined that 8% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters defected.
The net defection increased Kerry's margin by 1.0 million votes.

 

c) According to the U.S. Census, there were 3.4 million uncounted votes.
The majority (70-80%) were Kerry votes, increasing his margin by 1.5 million votes.

Adding the total increase in Kerry’s margin, the TrueVote was: Kerry 67- Bush 57- Other 1.7

Kerry’s 67m  =  63 + 1.5  + 1.0  + 1.5 

 

2000

(Votes in thousands)

Recorded      Gore   Bush     Nader   Other   Margin

105,417       51,003 50,460   2,883   1,070   543

              48.38% 47.87%   2.73%   1.02%   0.52%

 

2004

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

122,293       59,028 62,040   465     758     3,012

              48.27% 50.73%   0.38%   0.62%   2.46%

 

2000

Nader/Other vote allocation                           

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

3,953         2,530   672     276     474     1,858

Exit Poll       64%   17%      7%      12%     47%

 

2004

New Voter allocation                           

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

16,876        9,619   6,919   118     219     2,700

Exit Poll     57%     41%     0.7%    1.3%    16%

 

Adjusted True Vote                             

Adjusted      Kerry    Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

122,293       63,153   58,051   394    693     5,102

Share         51.64%   47.47%   0.32%  0.57%   4.17%

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis                                                  

 

         Kerry % of New Voters                 

        55%     56%    57%    58%    59%

Kerry%

Other         Kerry Vote Share                

62%    51.30% 51.44% 51.58% 51.71% 51.85%

63%    51.33% 51.47% 51.61% 51.75% 51.88%

64%    51.36% 51.50% 51.64% 51.78% 51.92%

65%    51.40% 51.54% 51.67% 51.81% 51.95%

66%    51.43% 51.57% 51.71% 51.84% 51.98%

 

               Electoral Vote                       

62%      316   316    337    337    348

63%      316   326    337    337    348

64%      316   337    337    348    348

65%      316   337    337    348    348

66%      316   337    337    348    348        

 

 

              Vote Margin         

62%    4,268 4,606 4,943 5,281 5,619

63%    4,347 4,685 5,023 5,360 5,698

64%    4,427 4,764 5,102 5,439 5,777

65%    4,506 4,843 5,181 5,518 5,856

66%    4,585 4,922 5,260 5,597 5,935

 

 

 

Base Case Scenario

 

              2000 Recorded                      2004 Recorded               2004 Adjusted

State         Gore   Bush   Nader Other          Kerry Bush   Other EV       Kerry   Bush  Nader Other               

Total         48.38% 47.87% 2.73% 1.02%          48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 337     51.64% 47.47% 0.32% 0.57%          

                                                                                                                        

Alabama       41.6%  56.5%  1.1%   0.9%          36.8%  62.5%  0.7%          44.4%  55.0%  0.20%  0.35%          

Alaska        27.7%  58.6%  10.1%  3.7%          35.5%  61.1%  3.4%          38.2%  59.2%  0.94%  1.62%          

Arizona       44.7%  51.0%  3.0%   1.4%          44.4%  54.9%  0.7%   10     49.7%  49.2%  0.40%  0.71%          

Arkansas      45.9%  51.3%  1.5%   1.4%          44.6%  54.3%  1.2%          48.9%  50.4%  0.26%  0.46%          

California    53.5%  41.7%  3.8%   1.1%          54.3%  44.4%  1.3%   55     56.6%  42.3%  0.38%  0.67%          

                                                                                                                        

Colorado      42.4%  50.8%  5.3%   1.6%          47.0%  51.7%  1.3%          48.6%  49.9%  0.52%  0.91%          

Connecticut   55.9%  38.4%  4.4%   1.2%          54.3%  44.0%  1.7%   7      59.3%  39.5%  0.42%  0.72%          

Delaware      55.0%  41.9%  2.5%   0.6%          53.4%  45.8%  0.9%   3      57.0%  42.3%  0.28%  0.49%          

D. C.         85.2%  9.0%   5.2%   0.7%          89.2%  9.3%   1.5%   3      85.3%  13.5%  0.44%  0.77%          

Florida       48.8%  48.9%  1.6%   0.7%          47.1%  52.1%  0.8%   27     51.8%  47.5%  0.28%  0.50%          

                                                                                                                       

Georgia       43.0%  54.7%  0.5%   1.8%          41.4%  58.0%  0.7%          47.2%  52.1%  0.28%  0.50%          

Hawaii        55.8%  37.5%  5.9%   0.9%          54.0%  45.3%  0.7%   4      59.7%  38.9%  0.50%  0.88%        

Idaho         27.6%  67.2%  2.5%   2.7%          30.3%  68.4%  1.4%          35.2%  63.7%  0.42%  0.73%          

Illinois      54.6%  42.6%  2.2%   0.6%          54.8%  44.5%  0.7%   21     56.5%  42.9%  0.25%  0.44%          

Indiana       41.0%  56.7%  0.8%   1.5%          39.3%  59.9%  0.8%          44.1%  55.3%  0.22%  0.39%          

                                                                                                                 

Iowa          48.5%  48.2%  2.2%   1.0%          49.2%  49.9%  0.9%   7      51.4%  47.8%  0.29%  0.50%          

Kansas        37.2%  58.0%  3.4%   1.4%          36.6%  62.0%  1.4%          41.9%  57.1%  0.37%  0.64%          

Kentucky      41.4%  56.5%  1.5%   0.6%          39.7%  59.6%  0.8%          44.7%  54.6%  0.23%  0.40%          

Louisiana     44.9%  52.6%  1.2%   1.4%          42.2%  56.7%  1.1%          47.5%  51.9%  0.23%  0.40%          

Maine         49.1%  44.0%  5.7%   1.3%          53.6%  44.6%  1.9%   4      53.9%  44.7%  0.51%  0.89%          

                                                                                                                 

Maryland      56.6%  40.2%  2.7%   0.6%          55.9%  42.9%  1.2%   10     58.4%  40.8%  0.30%  0.53%          

Massachusetts 59.8%  32.5%  6.4%   1.3%          61.9%  36.8%  1.3%   12     64.2%  34.3%  0.55%  0.95%          

Michigan      51.3%  46.1%  2.0%   0.6%          51.2%  47.8%  1.0%   17     53.4%  45.9%  0.25%  0.43%          

Minnesota     47.9%  45.5%  5.2%   1.4%          51.1%  47.6%  1.3%   10     52.8%  45.8%  0.49%  0.86%          

Mississippi   40.7%  57.6%  0.8%   0.9%          39.8%  59.4%  0.8%          43.9%  55.6%  0.20%  0.35%          

                                                                                                                       

Missouri      47.1%  50.4%  1.6%   0.9%          46.1%  53.3%  0.6%   11     49.8%  49.5%  0.25%  0.44%          

Montana       33.4%  58.4%  6.0%   2.3%          38.6%  59.1%  2.4%          40.2%  58.2%  0.58%  1.01%          

Nebraska      33.3%  62.3%  3.5%   1.0%          32.7%  65.9%  1.4%          38.3%  60.7%  0.36%  0.62%          

Nevada        46.0%  49.5%  2.5%   2.0%          47.9%  50.5%  1.7%   5      51.0%  47.8%  0.42%  0.74%          

New Hampshire 46.8%  48.1%  3.9%   1.2%          50.2%  48.9%  0.9%   4      51.2%  47.7%  0.41%  0.72%          

                                                                                                                      

New Jersey    56.1%  40.3%  3.0%   0.6%          52.9%  46.2%  0.8%   15     58.3%  40.9%  0.30%  0.53%          

New Mexico    47.9%  47.9%  3.6%   0.7%          49.1%  49.8%  1.1%   5      52.0%  47.0%  0.38%  0.67%          

New York      60.2%  35.2%  3.6%   1.0%          58.4%  40.1%  1.5%   31     62.7%  36.4%  0.35%  0.61%          

North Carolina 43.2% 56.0%  0.0%   0.8%          43.6%  56.0%  0.4%          45.9%  53.6%  0.16%  0.30%          

North Dakota  33.1%  60.7%  3.3%   3.0%          35.5%  62.9%  1.6%          38.6%  60.1%  0.46%  0.80%          

                                                                                                                

Ohio          46.5%  50.0%  2.5%   1.1%          48.7%  50.8%  0.5%   20     50.1%  49.0%  0.32%  0.57%          

Oklahoma      38.4%  60.3%  0.0%   1.3%          34.4%  65.6%  0.0%          42.0%  57.5%  0.18%  0.33%          

Oregon        47.0%  46.5%  5.0%   1.5%          51.4%  47.2%  1.5%   7      52.1%  46.5%  0.50%  0.87%          

Pennsylvania  50.6%  46.4%  2.1%   0.9%          50.9%  48.4%  0.7%   21     53.2%  46.1%  0.28%  0.50%          

Rhode Island  61.0%  31.9%  6.1%   1.0%          59.4%  38.7%  1.9%   4      65.0%  33.6%  0.51%  0.88%          

                                                                                                                 

South Carolina 40.9% 56.8%  1.5%   0.8%          40.9%  58.0%  1.1%          44.5%  54.9%  0.24%  0.42%          

South Dakota  37.6%  60.3%  0.0%   2.1%          38.4%  59.9%  1.7%          42.3%  57.0%  0.25%  0.45%          

Tennessee     47.3%  51.2%  1.0%   0.6%          42.5%  56.8%  0.7%          49.6%  49.9%  0.20%  0.35%          

Texas         38.0%  59.3%  2.2%   0.6%          38.2%  61.1%  0.7%          42.1%  57.2%  0.26%  0.46%          

Utah          26.3%  66.8%  4.7%   2.2%          26.0%  71.5%  2.5%          35.2%  63.4%  0.52%  0.90%          

                                                                                                                 

Vermont       50.6%  40.7%  6.9%   1.8%          58.9%  38.8%  2.3%   3      56.2%  42.1%  0.61%  1.06%          

Virginia      44.4%  52.5%  2.2%   0.9%          45.5%  53.7%  0.8%          47.9%  51.3%  0.29%  0.50%          

Washington    50.1%  44.6%  4.1%   1.2%          52.8%  45.6%  1.5%   11     54.0%  44.9%  0.41%  0.72%          

West Virginia 45.6%  51.9%  1.7%   0.8%          43.2%  56.1%  0.7%          48.6%  50.7%  0.25%  0.44%          

Wisconsin     47.8%  47.6%  3.6%   0.9%          49.7%  49.3%  1.0%   10     51.6%  47.4%  0.37%  0.65%          

Wyoming       27.7%  67.8%  2.1%   2.4%          29.1%  68.9%  2.1%          33.3%  65.7%  0.36%  0.62%          

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Analysis

 

2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies by Time Zone and Region

Data Source: Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Exit Poll Summary Report

 

Kerry's aggregate state exit poll (unadjusted) share was 51.8% (325 electoral votes).

The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

The MoE was exceeded in only one state (WV) for Kerry.

 

States in which MoE was exceeded:

Time Zone             Region

East       15 of 21   East     9 of 12

Central     7 of 16   MidW     6 of 12

Mountain    4 of 8    South    7 of 13

Pacific     3 of 5    West     7 of 13

 

The final state and national exit poll vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote.  The "pristine" unadjusted

exit poll results, as measured by the average state WPE (Within Precinct Error), morphed to the Composite

(weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then to the Final which was forced to match the

Recorded vote. WPE is the difference in margin from exit poll to vote tally.

 

Exit Poll         Kerry Vote Share

State aggregate   51.8% (unadjusted, based on average WPE)

NEP Location      51.7   (WPE-adjusted state aggregate)

NEP Region        50.5   (12:22am adjusted Composite)

NEP Region        48.2   (FINAL matched to recorded vote)

 

 

State Exit Poll Weighted- Unadjusted Vote shares based on WPE

 

REGION   Vote     Weight   Kerry     Bush   Other

East     27.18    22.2%    60.3%    39.0%   0.7%

Midwest  30.94    25.3%    51.4%    47.8%   0.8%

South    39.32    32.2%    44.9%    54.4%   0.7%

West     24.84    20.3%    54.2%    44.4%   1.4%

 

Total             100%     51.8%    47.3%   0.9%

Votes    122.3    122.3    63.3     57.8    1.2

 

 

 

National Exit Poll

Unadjusted Vote Shares

(based on average WPE)

 

LOCATION         Votes    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Big City         15.9     13%      64.95%   35.05%   0%      10.3     5.6      0.0      4.6     

Small City       22.0     18%      53.25%   44.75%   2%      11.7     9.9      0.4      1.9     

Suburbs          55.0     45%      51.05%   47.95%   1%      28.1     26.4     0.6      1.7     

Small Town        9.8     8%       50.45%   47.55%   2%      4.9      4.7      0.2      0.3     

Rural            19.6     16%      41.80%   57.20%   1%      8.2      11.2     0.2      -3.0    

                                                                                      

TOTAL            122.3    100%     51.7%    47.2%    1.1%     63.3     57.7     1.4      5.6     

 

 

Regional Popular and Electoral Vote (WPE based)

 

EV    Electoral vote

KEV   Kerry Electoral Vote (Exit Poll)

KE    Kerry Exit Poll Vote

KV    Kerry Recorded Vote

 

KEP   Kerry Exit Poll percent

KVP   Kerry Recorded Vote percent

WPE   Within Precinct Error

 

Diff = KE - KV

WPE  = 2*Diff

 

 

Unadjusted Regional Vote Shares

(based on regional average WPE)

 

REGION         EV          Vote    Weight   WPE      KE       KV       KEP      KVP      KEV     

East           122        27,177   22.2%    9.21%    16,376   15,124   60.3%    55.7%    117     

Midwest        124        30,940   25.3%    5.96%    15,889   14,966   51.4%    48.4%    85      

South          168        39,324   32.2%    5.66%    17,662   16,550   44.9%    42.1%    27      

West           124        24,844   20.3%    8.18%    13,461   12,445   54.2%    50.1%    96      

 

Total          538        122,284  100.0%   7.04%    63,388   59,085   51.8%    48.3%    325

 

 

NEP Regional Demographic

(adjusted Composite and Final)

 

         12:22am Composite                                     2pm Final

REGION   Vote     Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other

East     26.91    22%      58%      41%      1%               22%      56%      43%      1%

Midwest  31.80    26%      50%      49%      1%               26%      48%      51%      1%

South    37.91    31%      44%      54%      2%               32%      42%      58%      0%

West     25.68    21%      53%      45%      2%               20%      50%      49%      1%

                                                                                      

Total            100%     50.53%   47.95%   1.52%            100%     48.24%   51.08%   0.68%

Votes    122.3    122.3    61.8     58.6     1.9              122.3    59.0     62.5     0.8

 

 

 

                                                                                      

STATE    KEV      Vote     WPE      KE       KV       BE       BV       Diff     MoE      Diff/MoE

 

EAST

CT*      7        1,578    15.7     62.2     54.3     36.1     43.9     7.85     3.27     2.40

DC       3        378      3.4      90.9     89.2     37.8     9.3      1.70     1.92     0.88

DE*      3        226      15.9     61.3     53.3     37.8     45.8     7.95     3.48     2.28

MA       12       2,912    5.8      64.8     61.9     33.9     36.8     2.90     3.10     0.93

MD*      10       2,386    8.1      60.0     55.9     38.9     42.9     4.05     3.07     1.32

 

ME       4        741      3.8      55.5     53.6     42.7     44.6     1.90     2.20     0.86

NH*      4        678      13.6     57.0     50.2     42.1     48.9     6.80     2.27     3.00

NJ*      15       3,611    9.7      57.8     52.9     41.4     46.2     4.85     2.49     1.94

NY*      31       7,391    11.4     64.1     58.4     34.4     40.1     5.70     2.47     2.31

PA*      21       5,770    8.8      55.3     50.9     44.0     48.4     4.40     2.22     1.98

 

RI       4        437      4.7      61.8     59.4     36.3     38.7     2.35     3.30     0.71

VT*      3        312      15.0     66.4     58.9     31.3     38.8     7.50     3.56     2.11

WV*               756     (5.8)    40.3     43.2     59.0     56.1     -2.90    2.35     -1.23

 

MIDWEST

IA       7        1,507    3.0      50.7     49.2     48.4     49.9     1.50     1.96     0.77

IL       21       5,276    4.4      57.0     54.8     42.3     44.5     2.20     2.60     0.85

IN                2,468    1.5      40.0     39.3     59.2     59.9     0.75     3.17     0.24

KS                1,187    1.7      37.5     36.6     61.2     62.0     0.85     3.65     0.23

MI*      17       4,839    6.3      54.4     51.2     44.7     47.8     3.15     1.98     1.59

 

MN*      10       2,829    9.3      55.7     51.1     43.0     47.6     4.65     2.09     2.22

MO*               2,731    5.8      49.0     46.1     50.4     53.3     2.90     2.11     1.38

ND                313      (5.2)    32.9     35.5     65.5     62.9     -2.60    3.63     -0.72

NE*               778      8.1      36.7     32.7     61.8     65.9     4.05     3.37     1.20

OH*      20       5,626    10.9     54.2     48.7     45.4     50.8     5.45     2.21     2.47

 

SD                388      (4.2)    36.3     38.4     62.0     59.9     -2.10    2.45     -0.86

WI*      10       2,997    4.7      52.0     49.7     47.0     49.3     2.35     2.08     1.13

 

SOUTH

AL*              1,883    11.3     42.5     36.8     56.8     62.5     5.65     3.57     1.58

AR               2,021    0.5      44.8     44.5     54.1     54.3     0.25     2.61     0.10

FL*      27      7,610    7.6      50.9     47.1     48.3     52.1     3.80     1.84     2.07

GA               3,301    2.2      42.5     41.4     56.9     58.0     1.10     2.48     0.44

KY               1,796    (0.1)    39.6     39.7     59.6     59.6     -0.05    3.00     -0.02

 

LA               1,943    3.8      44.1     42.2     54.8     56.7     1.90     2.38     0.80

MS*              1,139    11.3     45.8     40.2     53.4     59.0     5.65     3.44     1.64

NC*              3,501    11.3     49.2     43.6     50.4     56.0     5.65     2.10     2.69

OK               1,464    (1.9)    33.5     34.4     66.5     65.6     -0.95    2.38     -0.40

SC*              1,618    10.0     45.9     40.9     53.0     58.0     5.00     2.34     2.13

 

TN               2,437    0.5      42.8     42.5     56.5     56.8     0.25     2.29     0.11

TX*              7,411    4.8      40.6     38.2     58.7     61.1     2.40     2.31     1.04

VA*              3,199    7.9      49.4     45.5     49.7     53.7     3.95     2.59     1.53

 

WEST

AK*              313      9.6      40.3     35.5     56.3     61.1     4.80     3.18     1.51

AZ*              1,051    4.6      46.7     44.4     52.6     54.9     2.30     2.27     1.01

CA*      55      12,420   10.9     59.8     54.3     38.9     44.4     5.45     2.22     2.45

CO*      9       2,130    6.1      50.1     47.0     48.6     51.7     3.05     1.95     1.56

HI       4       429      4.7      56.4     54.0     42.9     45.3     2.35     4.38     0.54

 

ID               598      1.0      30.8     30.3     67.9     68.4     0.50     3.91     0.13

MT               451      (1.8)    37.7     38.6     60.0     59.1     -0.90    3.78  ;   -0.24

NM*      5       756      7.8      52.9     49.0     45.9     49.8     3.90     2.22     1.76

NV*      5       830      10.1     52.9     47.9     45.4     50.5     5.05     2.13     2.37

OR       7       1,837    0.0      51.3     51.3     47.2     47.2     0.00     3.00     0.00

 

UT*              928      6.4      29.2     26.0     68.3     71.5     3.20     3.18     1.01

WA*      11      2,859    8.4      57.0     52.8     41.4     45.6     4.20     2.12     1.98

WY               243      4.3      31.2     29.1     66.7     68.9     2.15     3.50     0.61

 

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Composite State Exit Polls (12:22am)

 

Eastern:

All 21 states (and DC) deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%; the odds: 1 in 4.2 million.

12 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 32 trillion.

Ohio and Florida flipped from Kerry to Bush.

 

Central:

11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.82%; the odds: 1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 146

Iowa flipped from Kerry to Bush

 

Mountain:

7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.86%; the odds: 1 in 28

None deviated beyond the margin of error.

Nevada and New Mexico flipped from Kerry to Bush.

 

Pacific:

3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.83%; the odds: 1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 8

 

 

         Poll     Poll     Std      Exit     Final    Vote     Dev      Prob     Dev      Dev/     Dev/        Dev>     Bush

         Size     MoE      Dev      Poll     Vote     Dev      Prob     1 in     Favor    Std      MoE         MoE      Flip

                                                                                                                16       5          

EASTERN

NH       1849     2.33%    1.19%    55.50    50.68    -4.81%   0.00%    39823    Bush     -4.05    2.07         yes     

NY       1452     2.62%    1.34%    63.97    58.79    -5.17%   0.01%    17833    Bush     -3.86    1.97  ;       yes     

SC       1735     2.40%    1.22%    45.79    41.31    -4.48%   0.01%    7851     Bush     -3.66    1.87         yes     

NC       2167     2.15%    1.10%    47.31    43.72    -3.60%   0.05%    1939     Bush     -3.28    1.67  ;       yes     

OH       1963     2.26%    1.15%    52.06    48.75    -3.31%   0.20%    495      Bush     -2.88    1.47         yes      yes

 

PA       1930     2.28%    1.16%    54.41    51.13    -3.28%   0.24%    420      Bush     -2.82    1.44  ;       yes     

VT       685      3.82%    1.95%    65.69    60.34    -5.35%   0.30%  &nbssp; 330      Bush     -2.74    1.40         yes     

FL       2846     1.87%    0.96%    49.93    47.47    -2.46%   0.50%    199      Bush     -2.57    1.31  ;       yes      yes

DE       770      3.60%    1.84%    58.44    53.82    -4.62%   0.60%  &nbssp; 167      Bush     -2.51    1.28         yes     

NJ       1520     2.56%    1.31%    56.13    53.13    -3.00%   1.10%    91       Bush     -2.29    1.17  ;       yes     

 

MA       889      3.35%    1.71%    66.46    62.70    -3.76%   1.40%  &nbssp; 72       Bush     -2.20    1.12  ;       yes     

RI       809      3.52%    1.79%    64.24    60.48    -3.76%   1.82%  &nbssp; 55       Bush     -2.09    1.07  ;       yes     

CT       872      3.39%    1.73%    58.47    55.24    -3.24%   3.05%  &nbssp; 33       Bush     -1.87    0.96  ;    

VA       1431     2.64%    1.35%    47.96    45.65    -2.31%   4.34%    23       Bush     -1.71    0.87  ;    

WV       1722     2.41%    1.23%    45.19    43.48    -1.72%   8.13%    12       Bush     -1.40    0.71  ;    

 

GA       1536     2.55%    1.30%    43.11    41.58    -1.53%   12.02%   8        Bush     -1.17    0.60      

IN       926      3.29%    1.68%    40.97    39.46    -1.51%   18.33%   5        Bush     -0.90    0.46  ;    

MI       2452     2.02%    1.03%    52.55    51.73    -0.82%   21.39%   5        Bush     -0.79    0.40      

DC       795      3.55%    1.81%    91.63    90.63    -1.00%   29.01%   3        Bush     -0.55    0.28  ;    

MD       1000     3.16%    1.61%    57.04    56.25    -0.79%   31.24%   3        Bush     -0.49    0.25  ;    

 

KY       1034     3.11%    1.59%    40.76    39.99    -0.76%   31.57%   3        Bush     -0.48    0.24  ;    

ME       1968     2.25%    1.15%    54.83    54.48    -0.36%   37.88%   3        Bush     -0.31    0.16  ;    

                                                                                               

CENTRAL

MN       2178     2.14%    1.09%    54.61    51.76    -2.85%   0.46%    218      Bush     -2.61    1.33  ;       yes     

NE       785      3.57%    1.82%    36.54    32.53    -4.01%   1.39%  &nbssp; 72       Bush     -2.20    1.12  ;       yes     

AL       730      3.70%    1.89%    41.08    37.08    -4.00%   1.70%  &nbssp; 59       Bush     -2.12    1.08  ;       yes     

MS       798      3.54%    1.81%    43.20    39.91    -3.30%   3.40%  &nbssp; 29       Bush     -1.83    0.93  ;    

AR       1402     2.67%    1.36%    46.93    44.74    -2.19%   5.39%    19       Bush     -1.61    0.82  ;    

 

IL       1392     2.68%    1.37%    57.13    54.99    -2.14%   5.90%    17       Bush     -1.56    0.80  ;    

LA       1669     2.45%    1.25%    44.50    42.63    -1.87%   6.73%    15       Bush     -1.50    0.76  ;    

IA       2502     2.00%    1.02%    50.67    49.54    -1.13%   13.42%   7        Bush     -1.11    0.56  ;              yes

MO       2158     2.15%    1.10%    47.48    46.33    -1.15%   14.80%   7        Bush     -1.05    0.53  ;    

OK       1539     2.55%    1.30%    34.73    34.44    -0.29%   41.21%   2        Bush     -0.22    0.11  ;    

 

WI       2223     2.12%    1.08%    50.21    50.20    -0.02%   49.45%   2        Bush     -0.01    0.01      

TN       1774     2.37%    1.21%    41.15    42.78    1.63%    8.96%    11       Kerry    1.34     0.69      

TX       1671     2.45%    1.25%    36.84    38.49    1.65%    9.28%    11       Kerry    1.32     0.68      

SD       1495     2.59%    1.32%    37.42    39.09    1.67%    10.27%   10       Kerry    1.27     0.65      

ND       649      3.93%    2.00%    33.58    36.09    2.51%    10.51%   10       Kerry    1.25     0.64      

 

KS       654      3.91%    2.00%    34.60    36.97    2.37%    11.76%   9        Kerry    1.19     0.61      

                                                                                               

MOUNTAIN

NV       2116     2.17%    1.11%    50.66    48.67    -1.99%   3.61%    28       Bush     -1.80    0.92                yes

CO       2515     1.99%    1.02%    49.07    47.35    -1.72%   4.52%    22       Bush     -1.69    0.86  ;    

NM       1951     2.26%    1.16%    51.34    49.42    -1.93%   4.76%    21       Bush     -1.67    0.85                yes

UT       798      3.54%    1.81%    29.93    27.06    -2.87%   5.61%  &nbssp; 18       Bush     -1.59    0.81  ;    

AZ       1859     2.32%    1.18%    46.60    45.03    -1.57%   9.24%    11       Bush     -1.33    0.68      

 

ID       559      4.23%    2.16%    33.33    30.71    -2.63%   11.18%   9        Bush     -1.22    0.62  ;    

WY       684      3.82%    1.95%    32.07    29.70    -2.37%   11.24%   9        Bush     -1.21    0.62      

MT       640      3.95%    2.02%    39.28    39.51    0.22%    45.60%   2        Kerry    0.11     0.06      

                                                                                               

PACIFIC

AK       910      3.31%    1.69%    40.14    36.17    -3.97%   0.94%  &nbssp; 106      Bush     -2.35    1.20         yes     

WA       2123     2.17%    1.11%    55.07    53.60    -1.47%   9.25%    11       Bush     -1.33    0.68  ;    

CA       1919     2.28%    1.16%    55.73    55.21    -0.53%   32.58%   3        Bush     -0.45    0.23      

OR       1064     3.07%    1.56%    51.22    51.97    0.75%    31.67%   3        Kerry    0.48     0.24      

HI       499      4.48%    2.28%    53.32    54.37    1.05%    32.24%   3        Kerry    0.46     0.24      

                                                                                                         

 

SUMMARY

         Poll     Poll     Std      Exit     Final    Vote     Dev      Prob     Dev     Dev/     Dev/      Dev>     Bush

         Size     MoE      Dev      Poll     Vote     Dev      Prob     1 in     Favor    Std      MoE      MoE      Flip

Average  1443     2.85%    1.46%    48.84    47.00    -1.84%   10.34%   10       0        -1.33    0.83     16       5       

Median   1495     2.59%    1.32%    49.07    47.35    -1.93%   6.73%    15       0        -1.50    0.76      

 

                                                                                               

DEVIATIONS BY REGION     

East     1471     2.78%    1.42%    55.11    52.31    -2.80%   9.24%    3153     22       -2.03    1.04  ;   12         2

Central  1476     2.80%    1.43%    43.17    42.35    -0.82%   12.16%   31       11       -0.59    0.71     3         1

Mountain 1390     3.04%    1.55%    41.54    39.68    -1.86%   11.97%   15       7        -1.30    0.68     0         2

Pacific  1303     3.06%    1.56%    51.10    50.26    -0.83%   21.34%   25       3        -0.64    0.52     1         0

                                                                                                        

DEVIATION PROBABILITIES BY REGION 

         No.     Over MOE  Probability:1 in   Bush   Probability:1 in                           

East     22       12       32 trillion        22     4.2 million                                

Central  16       3        146                11     10

Mountain 8        0        1                  7      28

Pacific  5        1        8                  3       2

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Red-shift vs. Swing

 

Naysayers claimed that the raw exit poll data which have not been made public indicates that there was no tendency for Bush to do better in 2004 relative to 2000 (“swing”) than he did in the 2004 exit poll (“red-shift”).   They presented their analysis in a swing vs. red-shift  scatter chart and concluded from the flat regression line that the exit poll discrepancies had little effect and therefore fraud was unlikely.

 

But the analysis was not supported by the mathematics; there are an infinite number of scenarios which would invalidate the premise.And they were comparing apples to oranges; they did not adjust the 2000 recorded vote. According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush.  A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4mm. 

 

Assuming that 75% of approximately 3 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 1.5m. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote majority, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 3.4m.  And that does not consider the effects of vote-switching. Thanks to Ohio, we know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000.  It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush.  If 1.5 m (3%) were switched, then his final adjusted margin is 6.4 million: 3.0 switched + 1.5 uncounted + 1.4 Nader + 0.54 recorded.

 

They never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating “swing”. Assuming zero vote-switching from Gore to Bush in 2000, actual adjusted swing was 3.9%, recorded swing 2.0%; red-shift 4.1% (WPE-adjusted exit poll).   For 3% vote- switching, average adjusted state swing was 4.0%; average red-shift 1.5% (12:22am composite exit poll). Weighted average adjusted swing was 3.74%; weighted average red-shift, 1.41%.

 

Adjusted swing exceeded red-shift in 32 states. Average adjusted swing was 2.58%; weighted average swing was 2.39%.  An adjusted swing vs. redshift  bar graph displays the deviations. Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 2 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.

 

Of the eight states which blue-shifted to Kerry, six were deep-red (exit poll discrepancies in parenthesis):

TN (1.63), TX (1.65), SD (1.67), ND (2.51), KS (2.37) and MT (0.22).  

The other two states were competitive: OR (.75), HI (1.25) also shifted to Kerry. All discrepancies fell within the state exit poll margin of error. Is it just a coincidence that these deep-red states deviated to Kerry? Or was it because there was little incentive to steal votes in there?  Since Oregon is the only state with 100% paper ballots (mail), a small discrepancy is to be expected - and could favor either Bush or Kerry with equal probability. And since Hawaii is a small state, was it also not a priority when compared to all the other vote-rich battleground /blue states?

 

The recorded 2000 vote was adjusted using three factors:

1) Third-party (primarily Nader) share of 2000 voters:

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters by 71-21% over Bush. We need to revise the 2000 vote totals accordingly by allocating the Nader vote to Gore and Bush by the same proportion.

 

2) Uncounted votes:

According to the 2004 Election Census, there were 125.7mm total votes cast but only 122.3mm were recorded; 3.4mm (2.74%) were uncounted.  In 2000, there were 104.7mm votes recorded. Assuming the 2004 uncounted vote rate in 2000, 107.7mm total votes were cast and 3.0mm were uncounted. Since the majority of uncounted ballots are found in Democratic minority districts, a fair assumption is that 75% of the lost votes were for Gore. There were 180,000 spoiled ballots (under and over votes) in Florida.

 

3) Switched votes:

The True Vote Model base case scenario indicates that 7.6% of Kerry’s recorded vote (6.8% of total votes cast) were switched to Bush.  An exhaustive review of the ballots in Ohio's Cuyahoga County determined that 6.15%were switched. For this analysis, the best case assumption is that 3.0% of Gore votes were switched.

 

The following is an analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes for the 2000 and 2004 elections. The results contradict the argument that no relationship exists between 2004 exit poll red-shift and vote swing from 2000 to 2004.

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Swing vs. Red Shift – Selected States                                                             

 

Assumptions                                                        

Uncounted votes (percent of total votes cast)

2000: 3.00%                          

2004: 2.74%

Dem share: 75%

Switched: 3% from Gore to Bush

 

Nader vote allocation                                                             

Gore    71%                                                  

Bush    21%                                                  

Other    8%                                  

 

Definitions

Actual: recorded vote

Adjusted True Vote: Recorded vote + Nader + uncounted + switched votes

Adjusted Swing: Bush 2004 recorded vote share – Bush 2000 adjusted vote share

Red-shift: Bush 2004 recorded vote share – Bush 2004 Exit Poll share

All vote shares are 2-party percentages

 

Key Result

(WPE adjusted exit poll)

Red-shift exceeded swing in 21 of the 31 states in which the Bush 2004 recorded vote share exceeded his 2000 vote share.This refutes the  Swing vs. Red-shift argument that there was no tendency for red-shift to exceed swing. Red-shift exceeds swing in 39 states.

 

Composite Polls (12:22am)

 

         Swing R/S    Diff

National 1.51%  1.75%    0.26%

OH      -0.76   3.12     3.88

FL       2.52   2.45     -0.07

NY       3.81   4.68     0.87

PA       0.88   3.15     2.27

IA       0.49   1.01     0.52

NM       0.43   1.74     1.31

 

  

                 2000                       2004                                                        

NATIONAL         Gore     Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual          51004     50459    3275     59028    62040    1228

Other            2285     676      0        0        0        0

Uncounted        2354     785      0        2581     860      0

Switch           1529     -1529    0  &nbbsp;     4488     -4488    0

True             57173    50390    0        66097    58412    0

                                                                     

Actual          50.27%    49.73%            48.76%   51.24%  

True            53.15%    46.85%            53.09%   46.91%  

NEP Voted 2k                                51.93%   48.07%  

State Exit Poll                             50.51%   49.49%  

                                                                     

                   Swing                   Red-shift Diff  

Actual (state)    1.51%                     1.75%    0.26%

True (NEP)        4.39%                     4.33%   -0.06%

Difference        2.88%                     2.58%

Actual (NEP)                                3.17%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                                   

 

OHIO             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush    

Actual           2186     2351     144              2740     2859    

Other            102      30       0                0        0       

Uncounted        105      35       0                119      40      

Switch           66       -66      0                199      -199    

Adjusted         2459     2351     0                3058     2699    

                                                                     

Actual           48.18%   51.82%                    48.94%   51.06%  

True              51.13%  48.87%                    53.12%   46.88%  

Exit Poll                                           52.06%   47.94%  

                                                                     

                   Swing                           Red-shift Diff    

Actual            -0.76%                           3.12%     3.88%

True               2.19%                           4.18%     1.99%

Difference        2.95%                            1.06%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                     

 

FLORIDA          Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           2912     2912     2912             3584     3965     56

Other            82       24       0                0        0        0

Uncounted        134      45       0                161      54       0

Switch           87       -87      0                261      -261     0

True             3215     2893     2912             4005     3757     0

                                                                     

Actual           50.00%   50.00%                    47.48%   52.52%  

True              52.63%  47.37%                    51.60%   48.40%  

Exit Poll                                           49.93%   50.07%  

                                                                     

                 Swing                             Red-shift Diff    

Actual           2.52%                             2.45%     -0.07%

True             5.15%                              4.12%   -1.03%

Difference      2.63%                              1.67%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                     

 

NEW YORK          Gore    Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           4112     2405     278              4314     2963     112

Other            197      58       0                0        0        0

Uncounted        153      51       0                156      20       0

Switch           123      -123     0                314      -314     0

True              4586    2391     278              4784     2669     112

                                                                     

Actual           63.10%   36.90%                    59.29%   40.71%  

True             65.73%   34.27%                    64.19%   35.81%  

Exit Poll                                           63.97%   36.03%  

                                                                     

              Swing                                Red-shift Diff    

Actual          3.81%                              4.68%     0.87%

True            6.44%                              4.90%     -1.54%

Difference      2.63%                              0.22%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                     

 

PENNSYLVANIA     Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           2485     2281     120              2938     2794     34

Other            85       25       0                0        0        0

Uncounted        110      37       0                122      41       0

Switch           75       -75      0                214      -214     0

True              2755    2268     120              3274     2621     34

                                                                     

Actual          52.14%    47.86%                    51.26%   48.74%  

True           54.84%     45.16%                    55.54%   44.46%  

Exit Poll                                           54.41%   45.59%  

                                                                     

               Swing                               Red-shift Diff    

Actual          0.88%                               3.15%    2.27%

True           3.58%                                4.28%    0.70%

Difference     2.70%                                1.13%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                

 

IOWA             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           638      634      37               742      752      11

Other            26       8        0                0        0        0

Uncounted        29       10       0                32       11       0

Switch           19       -19      0                54       -54      0

True              713     632      37               828      709      11

                                                                     

Actual           50.16%   49.84%                    49.66%   50.34%  

True             52.99%   47.01%                    53.88%   46.12%  

Exit Poll                                           50.67%   49.33%  

 

                 Swing                              Red-shift Diff   

Actual           0.49%                              1.01%   0.52%

True            3.33%                               4.22%   0.89%

Difference      2.84%                               3.21%

 

______________________________________________________________________________

                

                                                                     

NEW MEXICO       Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           287      286      22               371      377      8

Other            16       5        0                0        0        0

Uncounted        13       4        0                16       5        0

Switch           9        -9       0                27       -27      0

True             324      287      22               414      355      8

                                                                     

Actual           50.03%   49.97%                    49.60%   50.40%  

True             53.07%   46.93%                    53.81%   46.19%  

Exit Poll                                           51.34%   48.66%  

                                                                     

                 Swing                              Red-shift Diff   

Actual           0.43%                              1.74%    1.31%

True             3.47%                              4.21%     0.74%

Difference       3.04%                              2.47%

              

______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

WPE-unadjusted Exit Polls

 

           Swing   R/S     Diff

National   1.51%   3.58%   3.07%

OH        -0.76    5.48    6.24

FL         3.49    3.83    0.34          

NY         3.81    5.79    1.98 

PA         0.88    4.43    3.55

IA         0.49    1.51    1.02 

NM         0.43    3.94    3.51 

 

 

Assumptions:     2000     2004 

Uncounted        4.86%    2.74%           

To Dem            75%     75%             

Switched           0%     7.6%            

 

Nader share allocated to                                                              

Gore     71%                                                       

Bush     21%                                                                

Other     8%                                                                 

                                                                              

NATIONAL         Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other   

Actual           51004    50459    3275             59028    62040    1228    

Other            2285     676      0                0        0        0       

Unctd            4009     1336     0                2581     860      0       

Switch              0     0        0                4492     -4492    0       

 

TrueVote         57298    52471    0                66101    58408    0       

Margin           4827                                7693                     

 

Actual          50.27%    49.73%                    48.76%   51.24%

TruePct         52.20%    47.80%                    53.09%   46.91%           

Exit Poll         -      &nbbsp; -      &nbbsp;                 51.93%   48.07%           

State EP          -        -                        52.34%   47.66%           

                                                                              

                Swing                            Red-shift                    

Actual          1.51%                              3.58%

TrueVote        3.44%                              4.33%             

NEP             3.17%             

                                              

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

OHIO             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush             

Actual           2186     2351     144              2740     2859             

Other            102      30       0                0        0                

Unctd            179      60       0                119      40               

Switch             0       0       0                209      -209      ;       

TrueVote         2468     2441     0                3067     2690             

Margin            27                                 377                      

 

Actual         48.18%     51.82%                  48.94%     51.06%           

TruePct        50.27%     49.73%                  53.28%     46.72%           

Exit Poll                                         54.42%     45.58%           

                                                                              

                Swing                           Red-shift                     

Actual         -0.76%     &nbssp;                        5.48%

TrueVote        1.33%                              4.34%             

                

                                                                              

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

FLORIDA         Gore      Bush     Nader            Kerry    Bush     Other   

Actual           2912     2912     115              3584     3965     56      

Other            82       24       9                0        0        0       

Unctd           228       76       0                161      54       0       

Switch           29       -29      0                247      -247     0       

TrueVote        3250      2983     9                3991     3771     56      

Margin           267                                 221                      

 

Actual         49.03%     49.03%   1.94%            47.48%   52.52%

TruePct        52.07%     47.78%   0.15%            51.42%   48.58%           

Exit Poll                                           51.31%   48.69%           

                                                                              

              Swing                                 Red-shift                         

Actual         3.49%                                3.83%            

TrueVote       3.95%                                4.74%   

                                                                              

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

NEW YORK          Gore    Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other   

Actual           4112     2405     278              4314     2963     112     

Other            197      58       0                0        0        0       

Unctd            260      87       0                156      20       0       

Switch            0       0        0                328      -328     0       

TrueVote          4570    2550     278              4799     2655     112     

Margin           2020                               2144                     

 

Actual           63.10%   36.90%                   59.29%    40.71%

TruePct          64.18%   35.82%                   64.38%    35.62%

Exit Poll                                          65.08%    34.92%           

                                                                              

                                                                              

               Swing                              Red-shift          

Actual          3.81%                               5.79%   

TrueVote        5.09%                               4.89%                                                                                    

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                     

PENN             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual           2485     2281     120              2938     2794     34

Other            85       25       0                0        0        0

Unctd            187      62       0                122      41       0

Switch            0       0        0                224      -224     0

TrueVote         2757     2369     120              3284     2611     34

Margin          389                                  673              

 

Actual         52.14%     47.86%                 51.26%     48.74%  

TruePct        53.79%     46.21%                 55.71%     44.29%  

Exit Poll                 -      &nbbsp;               55.69%     44.31%  

                                                                     

                Swing                           Red-shift            

Actual           0.88%                           4.43%

TrueVote         2.53%                           4.45%      

        

                                                                     

______________________________________________________________________________

 

IOWA             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual            638     634      37               742      752      11

Other            26       8        0                0        0        0

Unctd            50       17       0                32       11       0

Switch             0      0        0                56       -56      0

TrueVote          714     658      37               830      706      11

Margin            56                                124              

 

Actual         50.16%     49.84%                  49.66%    50.34%  

TruePct        52.04%     47.96%                  54.04%    45.96%  

Exit Poll                 -      &nbbsp;                51.18%    48.82%  

 

                Swing                             Red-shift          

Actual           0.49%                               1.51%   

TrueVote         2.37%                               4.37%   

 

                                                                     

______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                     

                                                                     

NEW MEXICO       Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other

Actual            287     286      22               371      377      8

Other            16       5        0                0        0        0

Unctd            23       8        0                16       5        0

Switch             0      0        0                28       -28      0

TrueVote          325     299      22               415      354      8

Margin            27                                 61               

 

Actual           50.03%   49.97%                    49.60%   50.40%  

TruePct          52.13%   47.87%                    53.97%   46.03%  

Exit Poll                 -      &nbbsp;                  53.54%   46.46%  

                                                                     

               Swing                                Red-shift                 

Actual         0.43%                                 3.94%  

TrueVote       2.53%                                 4.37%  

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________

 

Swing vs. Red Shift – All States                                                                      

 

Red-shift based on Unadjusted Exit Poll (WPE method)

(2-party vote shares)

 

Bush improved his two-party share (swing) from 2000 to 2004 in 31 states.

Red-shift exceeded swing in 21 of the 31 states.

Red-shift exceeded swing in a total 39 states.

 

         Actual            True Vote         Actual           True Vote          Exit Poll (WPE)          

         Gore     Bush     Gore     Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Red-shift Swing

                                                                                                        

State    50.27    49.73    52.20    47.80    49.04    50.96    53.09    46.91    52.34    47.66    3.30       1.23

                                                                                                        

AL       42.4     57.6     44.4     55.6     37.4     62.6     40.9     59.1     42.8     57.2     5.4         5.0

AK       32.1     67.9     38.9     61.1     38.1     61.9     40.6     59.4     41.7     58.3     3.7        -5.9

AR       46.7     53.3     49.1     50.9     45.4     54.6     49.2     50.8     45.3     54.7     -0.1        1.3

AZ       47.2     52.8     49.2     50.8     45.0     55.0     48.9     51.1     47.0     53.0     2.1         2.2

CA       56.2     43.8     57.9     42.1     55.3     44.7     59.7     40.3     60.6     39.4     5.3         0.9

                                                                                                        

CO       45.5     54.5     48.6     51.4     48.0     52.0     51.9     48.1     50.7     49.3     2.8        -2.4

CT       59.3     40.7     60.8     39.2     55.7     44.3     59.9     40.1     63.3     36.7     7.6         3.6

DE       56.8     43.2     58.2     41.8     54.0     46.0     58.4     41.6     61.9     38.1     7.8         2.7

DC       90.5     9.5      89.1     10.9     90.4     9.6      96.8     3.2      92.2     7.8      1.9         0.1

FL       50.0     50.0     51.7     48.3     47.7     52.3     51.7     48.3     51.3     48.7     3.6         2.3

                                                                                                        

GA       44.0     56.0     45.7     54.3     41.8     58.2     45.6     54.4     42.8     57.2     0.9         2.2

HI       59.9     40.1     61.6     38.4     54.6     45.4     59.0     41.0     56.8     43.2     2.2         5.4

ID       29.1     70.9     32.0     68.0     31.3     68.7     34.2     65.8     31.2     68.8     -0.1       -2.2

IL       56.2     43.8     57.6     42.4     55.4     44.6     59.8     40.2     57.4     42.6     2.1         0.8

IN       42.0     58.0     43.8     56.2     39.9     60.1     43.5     56.5     40.3     59.7     0.5         2.1

                                                                                                        

IA       50.2     49.8     52.0     48.0     49.9     50.1     54.0     46.0     51.2     48.8     1.3         0.3

KS       39.1     60.9     42.2     57.8     37.7     62.3     40.9     59.1     38.0     62.0     0.3         1.4

KY       42.3     57.7     44.4     55.6     40.3     59.7     43.9     56.1     39.9     60.1     -0.3      ;  2.0

LA       46.1     53.9     48.0     52.0     43.0     57.0     46.7     53.3     44.6     55.4     1.6         3.1

ME       52.7     47.3     55.2     44.8     55.0     45.0     59.2     40.8     56.5     43.5     1.5        -2.3

                                                                                                        

MD       58.5     41.5     59.7     40.3     56.8     43.2     61.3     38.7     60.7     39.3     3.9         1.7

MA       64.8     35.2     66.0     34.0     62.9     37.1     67.7     32.3     65.7     34.3     2.8         1.9

MI       52.6     47.4     54.1     45.9     52.0     48.0     56.2     43.8     54.9     45.1     2.9         0.7

MN       51.3     48.7     53.9     46.1     52.0     48.0     56.2     43.8     56.5     43.5     4.4        -0.7

MS       41.4     58.6     43.3     56.7     40.7     59.3     44.4     55.6     46.2     53.8     5.4         0.6

                                                                                                        

MO       48.3     51.7     50.1     49.9     46.6     53.4     50.6     49.4     49.3     50.7     2.7         1.7

MT       36.3     63.7     40.9     59.1     40.4     59.6     43.4     56.6     38.6     61.4     -1.8       -4.0

NE       34.8     65.2     38.3     61.7     33.7     66.3     36.8     63.2     37.3     62.7     3.5         1.1

NV       48.1     51.9     50.3     49.7     49.0     51.0     53.0     47.0     53.8     46.2     4.8        -0.9

NH       49.4     50.6     51.7     48.3     50.9     49.1     55.1     44.9     57.6     42.4     6.7        -1.5

                                                                                                        

NJ       58.2     41.8     59.6     40.4     53.6     46.4     57.9     42.1     58.3     41.7     4.7         4.6

NM       50.0     50.0     52.1     47.9     49.9     50.1     54.0     46.0     53.5     46.5     3.6         0.1

NY       63.1     36.9     64.2     35.8     59.6     40.4     64.1     35.9     65.1     34.9     5.5         3.5

NC       43.5     56.5     45.1     54.9     43.9     56.1     47.9     52.1     49.4     50.6     5.5        -0.4

ND       35.3     64.7     39.4     60.6     36.8     63.2     39.8     60.2     33.4     66.6     -3.3       -1.4

                                                                                                        

OH       48.2     51.8     50.3     49.7     49.1     50.9     53.3     46.7     54.4     45.6     5.3        -0.9

OK       38.9     61.1     40.9     59.1     34.4     65.6     38.1     61.9     33.5     66.5     -1.0      ;  4.5

OR       50.2     49.8     51.7     48.3     52.4     47.6     56.6     43.4     52.1     47.9     -0.2       -2.1

PA       52.1     47.9     53.8     46.2     51.4     48.6     55.7     44.3     55.7     44.3     4.3         0.7

RI       65.7     34.3     66.8     33.2     60.8     39.2     65.5     34.5     63.0     37.0     2.1         4.8

                                                                                                        

SC       41.9     58.1     44.0     56.0     41.7     58.3     45.4     54.6     46.4     53.6     4.7         0.1

SD       38.3     61.7     40.4     59.6     39.7     60.3     43.0     57.0     37.0     63.0     -2.8       -1.4

TN       48.0     52.0     49.6     50.4     43.0     57.0     46.9     53.1     43.1     56.9     0.0         5.0

TX       39.0     61.0     41.6     58.4     38.8     61.2     42.3     57.7     40.9     59.1     2.2         0.3

UT       28.3     71.7     33.1     66.9     27.8     72.2     30.0     70.0     29.9     70.1     2.1         0.4

                                                                                                        

VT       55.6     44.4     58.0     42.0     60.6     39.4     65.2     34.8     68.0     32.0     7.4        -5.0

VA       45.9     54.1     47.9     52.1     46.1     53.9     50.1     49.9     49.8     50.2     3.8        -0.2

WA       53.0     47.0     55.0     45.0     54.0     46.0     58.2     41.8     57.9     42.1     3.9        -1.0

WV       46.8     53.2     48.7     51.3     43.8     56.2     47.6     52.4     40.6     59.4     -3.2      ;  3.0

WI       50.1     49.9     52.3     47.7     50.4     49.6     54.6     45.4     52.6     47.4     2.1        -0.3

WY       29.0     71.0     31.8     68.2     30.6     69.4     33.1     66.9     31.9     68.1     1.3        -1.6

 

 

Swing vs. Red-shift based on 12:22am Exit Poll (Composite)

(2-party vote shares)

 

         Recorded          True Vote         Recorded          True Vote         Exit Poll        

         Gore     Bush     Gore     Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Red-shift Swing

State    50.27    49.73    52.20    47.80    49.04    50.96    53.09    46.91    50.51    49.49    1.47        1.23

                                                                                                        

AL       42.4     57.6     44.4     55.6     37.4     62.6     40.9     59.1     41.1     58.9     3.7         5.0

AK       32.1     67.9     38.9     61.1     38.1     61.9     40.6     59.4     40.1     59.9     2.1        -5.9

AR       46.7     53.3     49.1     50.9     45.4     54.6     49.2     50.8     46.6     53.4     1.2         1.3

AZ       47.2     52.8     49.2     50.8     45.0     55.0     48.9     51.1     46.9     53.1     2.0         2.2

CA       56.2     43.8     57.9     42.1     55.3     44.7     59.7     40.3     55.7     44.3     0.4         0.9

                                                                                                        

CO       45.5     54.5     48.6     51.4     48.0     52.0     51.9     48.1     49.1     50.9     1.1        -2.4

CT       59.3     40.7     60.8     39.2     55.7     44.3     59.9     40.1     58.5     41.5     2.8         3.6

DE       56.8     43.2     58.2     41.8     54.0     46.0     58.4     41.6     58.4     41.6     4.4         2.7

DC       90.5     9.5      89.1     10.9     90.4     9.6      96.8     3.2      91.6     8.4      1.3         0.1

FL       50.0     50.0     51.7     48.3     47.7     52.3     51.7     48.3     49.9     50.1     2.2         2.3

                                                                                                        

GA       44.0     56.0     45.7     54.3     41.8     58.2     45.6     54.4     43.1     56.9     1.3         2.2

HI       59.9     40.1     61.6     38.4     54.6     45.4     59.0     41.0     53.3     46.7     -1.2      ;  5.4

ID       29.1     70.9     32.0     68.0     31.3     68.7     34.2     65.8     33.3     66.7     2.0        -2.2

IL       56.2     43.8     57.6     42.4     55.4     44.6     59.8     40.2     57.1     42.9     1.8         0.8

IN       42.0     58.0     43.8     56.2     39.9     60.1     43.5     56.5     41.0     59.0     1.1         2.1

                                                                                                        

IA       50.2     49.8     52.0     48.0     49.9     50.1     54.0     46.0     50.7     49.3     0.8         0.3

KS       39.1     60.9     42.2     57.8     37.7     62.3     40.9     59.1     34.6     65.4     -3.1      ;  1.4

KY       42.3     57.7     44.4     55.6     40.3     59.7     43.9     56.1     40.8     59.2     0.5         2.0

LA       46.1     53.9     48.0     52.0     43.0     57.0     46.7     53.3     44.5     55.5     1.5         3.1

ME       52.7     47.3     55.2     44.8     55.0     45.0     59.2     40.8     54.8     45.2     -0.2       -2.3

                                                                                                        

MD       58.5     41.5     59.7     40.3     56.8     43.2     61.3     38.7     57.0     43.0     0.3         1.7

MA       64.8     35.2     66.0     34.0     62.9     37.1     67.7     32.3     66.5     33.5     3.6         1.9

MI       52.6     47.4     54.1     45.9     52.0     48.0     56.2     43.8     52.6     47.4     0.6         0.7

MN       51.3     48.7     53.9     46.1     52.0     48.0     56.2     43.8     54.6     45.4     2.6        -0.7

MS       41.4     58.6     43.3     56.7     40.7     59.3     44.4     55.6     43.2     56.8     2.5         0.6

                                                                                                        

MO       48.3     51.7     50.1     49.9     46.6     53.4     50.6     49.4     47.5     52.5     0.9         1.7

MT       36.3     63.7     40.9     59.1     40.4     59.6     43.4     56.6     39.3     60.7     -1.1       -4.0

NE       34.8     65.2     38.3     61.7     33.7     66.3     36.8     63.2     36.5     63.5     2.8         1.1

NV       48.1     51.9     50.3     49.7     49.0     51.0     53.0     47.0     50.7     49.3     1.6        -0.9

NH       49.4     50.6     51.7     48.3     50.9     49.1     55.1     44.9     55.5     44.5     4.6        -1.5

                                                                                                        

NJ       58.2     41.8     59.6     40.4     53.6     46.4     57.9     42.1     56.1     43.9     2.6         4.6

NM       50.0     50.0     52.1     47.9     49.9     50.1     54.0     46.0     51.3     48.7     1.4         0.1

NY       63.1     36.9     64.2     35.8     59.6     40.4     64.1     35.9     64.0     36.0     4.4         3.5

NC       43.5     56.5     45.1     54.9     43.9     56.1     47.9     52.1     47.3     52.7     3.4        -0.4

ND       35.3     64.7     39.4     60.6     36.8     63.2     39.8     60.2     33.6     66.4     -3.2       -1.4

                                                                                                        

OH       48.2     51.8     50.3     49.7     49.1     50.9     53.3     46.7     52.1     47.9     3.0        -0.9

OK       38.9     61.1     40.9     59.1     34.4     65.6     38.1     61.9     34.7     65.3     0.3         4.5

OR       50.2     49.8     51.7     48.3     52.4     47.6     56.6     43.4     51.2     48.8     -1.1       -2.1

PA       52.1     47.9     53.8     46.2     51.4     48.6     55.7     44.3     54.4     45.6     3.0         0.7

RI       65.7     34.3     66.8     33.2     60.8     39.2     65.5     34.5     64.2     35.8     3.4         4.8

                                                                                                        

SC       41.9     58.1     44.0     56.0     41.7     58.3     45.4     54.6     45.8     54.2     4.1         0.1

SD       38.3     61.7     40.4     59.6     39.7     60.3     43.0     57.0     37.4     62.6     -2.3       -1.4

TN       48.0     52.0     49.6     50.4     43.0     57.0     46.9     53.1     41.2     58.8     -1.9      ;  5.0

TX       39.0     61.0     41.6     58.4     38.8     61.2     42.3     57.7     36.8     63.2     -1.9      ;  0.3

UT       28.3     71.7     33.1     66.9     27.8     72.2     30.0     70.0     29.9     70.1     2.1         0.4

                                                                                                        

VT       55.6     44.4     58.0     42.0     60.6     39.4     65.2     34.8     65.7     34.3     5.1        -5.0

VA       45.9     54.1     47.9     52.1     46.1     53.9     50.1     49.9     48.0     52.0     1.9        -0.2

WA       53.0     47.0     55.0     45.0     54.0     46.0     58.2     41.8     55.1     44.9     1.1        -1.0

WV       46.8     53.2     48.7     51.3     43.8     56.2     47.6     52.4     45.2     54.8     1.4         3.0

WI       50.1     49.9     52.3     47.7     50.4     49.6     54.6     45.4     50.2     49.8     -0.2       -0.3

WY       29.0     71.0     31.8     68.2     30.6     69.4     33.1     66.9     32.1     67.9     1.5        -1.6

 

 

Correlation Analysis (state vote shares)

Gore vs. Bush 2000: 0.928

Gore vs. Kerry 2004: 0.996

Bush vs. Bush 2004: 0.995

Kerry Exit vs. Kerry Actual: 0.985

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Effects of uncounted votes and switched-vote rate on Gore and Kerry vote shares

 

               Gore          Kerry           

Actual         50.27         48.76           

Adjusted       53.15         53.09 (adj NEP)          

State Exit     -       &nnbsp;     50.51           

NEP            -             51.92           

          

                                    

           Adjusted Gore 2-party vote                         

Unctd      Switched-vote rate                         

Rate       0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%    

 

65%        51.59    52.07    52.54    53.02   

70%        51.66    52.14    52.61    53.08   

75%        51.73    52.21    52.68    53.15   

80%        51.80    52.27    52.75    53.22   

                                    

 

           Adjusted Kerry 2-party vote                        

Unctd      Switched-vote rate                         

Rate       4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.6%    

 

65%        51.24    51.72    52.19    52.96   

70%        51.31    51.79    52.26    53.02   

75%        51.38    51.85    52.33    53.09   

80%        51.44    51.92    52.39    53.15   

 

                               

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

                                                                                                                           

 

Exit Poll Response Optimization

 

Edison-Mitofsky summarized the exit poll data for 1250 precincts separated into five partisanship groupings, from strong Bush to strong Kerry. The optimization model used the Excel “Solver” algorithm and determined that Kerry won the 2-party vote by 52.15-47.85%. This “feasible” solution used the final recorded 2-party vote and the following partisanship constraints:1) within precinct error (WPE) and 2) response rates.

 

The optimal resulting vote share exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” demographic.

 

Kerry Exit Poll vs. Actual Vote by Precinct category

Effect of Incremental Aggregate Alpha on Precinct Category Alpha

Alpha (Kerry/Bush response) by Precinct Category

WPE by Precinct Category

Exit Poll Response by Precinct Category

Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Pct and WPE to Aggregate Alpha (K/B)

Bush Percentage of Refusers by Precinct Category Required for Recorded Vote

 

1250 Precincts by Partisanship

                                                                                        

Given:                                       

1- Recorded 2-party vote (Bush 51.24- Kerry 48.76%)

2- Partisanship precinct exit poll response                                        

3- Partisanship "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)                                      

 

Calculate:                                          

Kerry’s true vote - aggregate and by partisanship category

Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%

Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast                                             

 

        2-party 

        Vote%    Vote   

Kerry   48.76%   60.70                        

Bush    51.24%   63.78                        

Total   100%    124.48               

 

Optimizer results:

(2-party)                                           

                Kerry   Bush                          

Vote            64.91   59.57m                        

2-party        52.15%   47.85%                        

Deviation      -3.39%   3.39%                         

Vote Deviation -5.89    2.47                          

Dev /2-pty     -6.50%   7.09%                         

                                             

Vote share     51.62%   47.37%                        

                                             

PROBABILITY of the 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and vote:

1 in 67 billion                      

                                             

PARTISAN ALPHA                                      

Kerry strongholds: 1.052                                    

Other precincts:   1.203                                    

                                             

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)                                        

Response:    53.59%                                 

K/B (alpha): 1.165                                  

 

SHARE OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS                                         

Kerry   44.87%                               

Bush    55.13%                               

                                             

PARTISANSHIP CONSTRAINTS (1250 PRECINCTS)                                             

Number    Strong Bush              Strong Kerry                      

Precincts 40     415      540      165      90      

                                                   

KERRY SHARE                                                 

Min      0%       20%      40%      60%      80%     

Max      20%      40%      60%      80%      100%    

                                                   

RESPONSE                                                    

Min      56%      55%      52%      55%      53%     

Max      56%      55%      52%      55%      53%     

                                                   

ALPHA (K/B)                                                 

Min      0.50     0.50     0.50     0.50     0.50    

Max      2.00     2.00     2.00     2.00     2.00    

                                                   

WPE                                                

Min      -10.0%   -6.1%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -5.9%    0.3%  ;  

Max      -10.0%   -6.1%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -5.9%    0.3%  ;  

 

Actual

E-M      -10.0%   -6.1%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -5.9%    0.3%  ;  

                                                   

                                                    

                 OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY                           

                                                   

         Poll     Count    Diff     Poll     Count    Diff (mm)

Kerry    52.15%   48.76%   -3.39%   64.91    60.70    -4.22

Bush     47.85%   51.24%    3.39%   59.57    63.79     4.22

Diff      4.29%   -2.48%   -6.77%   5.346    -3.09    -8.43

                                                   

Pship    HighB    Bush     Even     Kerry    HighK    Total

Prcts    40       415      540      165      90       1250

Votes    3.98     41.33    53.78    16.43    8.96     124.48

Pct      3.2%     33.2%    43.2%    13.2%    7.2%     100.0%

                                                   

RESP.    56.0%    55.0%    52.0%    55.0%    53.0%    53.59%

DevAvg   2.4%     1.4%     -1.6%    1.4%  ;   -0.6%    0.0%

                                                   

ALPHA                                              

K/B      1.50     1.17     1.19     1.08     0.10     1.17

K/ 50B   75.1     58.7     59.3     54.1     49.8     58.2

DevAvg   29.0%    0.8%     1.8%     -7.1%    -14.4%   0.0%

 

VOTE                                               

Kerry    0.79     14.51    24.58    11.87    8.95     60.70

Pct      19.9%    35.1%    45.7%    72.2%    99.8%    48.76%

                                                   

Bush     3.19     26.82    29.20    4.56     0.02     63.79

Pct      80.1%    64.9%    54.3%    27.8%    0.2%     51.24%

                                                   

RESPONDERS                                                  

Kerry    0.99     15.77    26.86    12.35    8.93     64.91

Pct      24.9%    38.2%    50.0%    75.2%    99.7%    52.15%

                                                   

Bush     2.99     25.55    26.91    4.08     0.03     59.57

Pct      75.1%    61.8%    50.0%    24.8%    0.3%     47.85%

                                                   

REFUSERS                                           

Kerry    13.5%    31.4%    41.1%    68.6%    100.0%   44.87%

Bush     86.5%    68.6%    58.9%    31.4%    0.0%     55.13%

 

VOTE DEVIATION                                              

Kerry    -0.20    -1.26  p;  -2.29    -0.48    0.01  ;   -4.22

Pct      -20.1%   -8.0%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -3.9%    0.2%  ;   -6.50%

 

WPE                                                

Calc     -10.0%   -6.1%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -5.9%    0.3%  ;   -6.77%

E-M      -10.0%   -6.1%  &nbssp; -8.5%    -5.9%    0.3%  ;   -6.77%

                                           

 

Sensitivity Analysis:

Probability of Kerry vote discrepancy as a function of Kerry/Bush response (alpha)                                                                                                                                                

K/B      Kerry      WPE    Prob: 1 in            

1.00     48.77%    0.01%   2               

1.02     49.19%   -0.85%   5               

1.04     49.62%   -1.70%   21              

1.06     50.04%   -2.55%   160             

1.08     50.47%   -3.40%   2,334           

1.10     50.90%   -4.25%   65,300          

1.12     51.32%   -5.11%   3,555,747                

1.14     51.78%   -6.02%   559,644,344              

1.15     51.99%   -6.45%   7,521,468,533            

 

1.155    52.15%   -6.77%   62,893,081,761           

 

1.16     52.21%   -6.87%   119,593,696,538          

1.17     52.42%   -7.29%   2,250,674,476,447

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

NEP Location Size

 

Note: location vote shares exactly matched the 1250 precinct partisanship optimizer!

 

Given:                                       

1- Recorded vote: Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%                                         

  (2 party: Bush 51.24%- Kerry 48.76%)                                             

2- Location exit poll response                                      

3- Location "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)                                                                  

 

Calculate:                                          

True 2-party Vote share (aggregate and by location)

Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%

Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast                      

                                     

                            WPE      WPE     Number of       

Size      Weight  Votes    Mean     Median   Precincts Completion rate

Big City   13%    16.35    -7.9     -5.9     105 &nnbsp;      0.52

Small City 18%    22.63    -8.5     -7.7     236 &nnbsp;      0.54

Suburbs    45%    56.58    -8.1     -7.9     487 &nnbsp;      0.53

Small Town 8%     10.06    -4.9     -5       1126        0.57

Rural      16%    20.12    -3.6     -3.6     296 &nnbsp;      0.55

                                                   

Total            125.74   -7.17    -6.68    1250        0.54

                                             

EXIT POLL (2-party)

                 Kerry    Bush                              

Vote              64.91   59.58                             

Vote share       52.15%   47.85%                            

% Deviation      -3.39%   3.39%                             

Vote Dev          -5.88   2.47                              

Dev/2-pty        -6.50%   7.08%                             

                                                   

True Vote        51.62%   47.37%                            

%Deviation        9.06%   -4.15%     &nbssp;                      

                                              

                                     

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE) RESPONSE: 53.98%                              

                                             

PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS REQUIRED TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE                               

Kerry   44.83%                               

Bush    55.17%                              

                                             

         Rural    Town     Suburb   City     Big City

Prcts    296      126      487      236      105     

         23.7%    10.1%    39.0%    18.9%    8.4%    

Votes    20.12    10.06    56.58    22.63    16.35   

         16%      8%       45%      18%      13%     

 

Kerry NEP share

12:22am  43%      52%      50%      53%      64%     

Final    40%      48%      47%      49%      61%     

TRUE     40%      50%      49%      59%      73%     

                                                   

RANGE CONSTRAINTS                                           

 

KERRY WIN%                                                  

Min      35%      45%      45%      45%      60%     

Max      55%      55%      55%      60%      100%    

                                                   

RESPONSE                                           

Min      55%      57%      53%      54%      52%     

Max      55%      57%      53%      54%      52%     

                                                   

ALPHA (K/B)                                                 

Min      0.50     0.50     0.50     0.50     0.50    

Max      3.00     3.00     3.00     3.00     3.00    

                                                   

WPE                                                

Min      -3.6%    -4.9%  p;  -8.1%    -8.5%    -7.9%  p; 

Max      -3.6%    -4.9%  p;  -8.1%    -8.5%    -7.9%  p; 

E-M      -3.6%    -4.9%  p;  -8.1%    -8.5%    -7.9%  p; 

                                                   

                                                   

                                                   

                 OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY                           

                                                   

......   Poll    Count    Diff     Poll     Count    Diff (mm)

Kerry    52.15%   48.76%   -3.39%   64.91    60.70    -4.21

Bush     47.85%   51.24%   3.39%    59.57    63.78    4.21

Diff     4.29%    -2.48%   -6.77%   5.34     -3.09    -8.43

                                                   

.....    Rural    Town     Suburb   City     Big City   Total

Prcts    296      126      487      236      105      1250

2-pty    29.48    12.55    48.50    23.50    10.46    124.48

Pct      23.7%    10.1%    39.0%    18.9%    8.4%     100.0%

                                                   

RESP.    55.0%    57.0%    53.0%    54.0%    52.0%    53.98%

DevAvg   1.0%     3.0%     -1.0%    0.0%  ;   -2.0%    0.0%

                                                   

ALPHA                                              

K/B      0.792    0.800    0.840    0.835    0.800    0.82

K/ 50B   39.6     40.0     42.0     41.8     40.0     41.0

DevAvg   -3.5%    -2.4%  p;  2.4%     1.8%     -2.5%    0.0%

                                                   

VOTE                                               

Kerry    12.69    6.10     21.82    11.75    8.34     60.69

Pct      43.0%    48.6%    45.0%    50.0%    79.7%    48.76%

                                                   

Bush     16.79    6.45     26.67    11.75    2.12     63.78

Pct      57.0%    51.4%    55.0%    50.0%    20.3%    51.24%

                                                   

RESPONDERS                                                  

Kerry    13.22    6.41     23.79    12.75    8.75     64.91

Pct      44.8%    51.1%    49.1%    54.3%    83.7%    52.15%

                                                   

Bush     16.26    6.14     24.71    10.75    1.71     59.57

Pct      55.2%    48.9%    51.0%    45.8%    16.3%    47.85%

                                                   

REFUSERS                                           

Kerry    40.8%    45.4%    40.4%    45.0%    75.4%    44.83%

Bush     59.2%    54.6%    59.6%    55.0%    24.6%    55.17%

                                                   

VOTE DEVIATION                                              

Kerry    -0.53    -0.31    -1.96  p;  -1.00    -0.41    -4.21

Pct      -4.0%    -4.8%  p;  -8.3%    -7.8%    -4.7%  p;  -6.49%

                                                   

WPE                                                

Calc     -3.6%    -4.9%  p;  -8.1%    -8.5%    -7.9%    -6.77%

E-M      -3.6%    -4.9%  p;  -8.1%    -8.5%    -7.9%  p;  -6.77%

Diff     0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

State Response Optimizer

 

The State Exit Poll Response Optimizer categorized the states into five (High Bush to High Kerry) groupings and used state exit poll response rates provided by Edison-Mitofsky. State vote discrepancies were analogous to WPE.  Kerry was the winner: 51.8-47.2%. The model confirmed the Precinct Response Optimizer: non-response rates were higher in strong Kerry states, again contradicting the non-response (rBr) hypothesis. 

 

A Regression analysis of Kerry state poll share and recorded vote vs. the state exit poll completion rate confirmed the optimizer results.

                                                                                   

Given: Recorded vote

        2-Party   Total

Kerry    48.76%   48.27%

Bush     51.24%   50.72%

 

2- State exit poll average response rate   

3- State exit poll average WPE                                                                 

                                                                                               

Calculate: TRUE VOTE

        2-Party   Total                                                         

Kerry   52.30%   51.77%

Bush    47.70%   47.21%                                                      

WPE     -6.77%   -7.08%

                                                                                               

PROBABILITY of 3.54% discrepancy between True Vote and recorded vote:

         1 in 3.5 trillion                                                    

                                                                                               

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)

Response 53.32%                                                               

                                                                                               

REFUSER VOTE SHARE REQUIRED TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Kerry    44.86%                                                               

Bush     55.14%                                                               

                                                                                               

                                            CALCULATED TRUE VOTE               Deviation from Recorded  

State    Votes    Weight           RESP.    Kerry    Pct      Bush     Pct      Votes    Pct      WPE

Total    121,056   100%            53.32%   63,314   52.30%   57,741   47.70%   -4287    -6.77%   -7.08%

                                                                                               

HIGH BUSH                                                                                  

UT       905      0.75%            59.6%    270      29.9%    635      70.1%    -29      -10.7%   -6.4%

WY       238      0.20%            66.0%    76       31.8%    163      68.2%    -5       --6.8%    -4.3%

ID       590      0.49%            63.2%    184      31.2%    406      68.8%    -3       -1.6%    -1.0%

NE       767      0.63%            66.5%    285      37.2%    482      62.8%    -31      -10.9%   -8.1%

OK       1,464    1.21%            53.2%    490      33.5%    974      66.5%    14       2.8%     1.9%

                                                                                               

BUSH                                                                               

ND       308      0.25%            63.0%    103      33.5%    205      66.5%    8        7.8%     5.2%

AK       302      0.25%            53.2%    126      41.6%    176      58.4%    -14      -11.5%   -9.6%

AL       1,870    1.55%            58.3%    800      42.8%    1,071    57.2%    -106     -13.2% p;  -11.3%

KS       1,171    0.97%            64.5%    445      38.0%    726      62.0%    -10      -2.2%&    -1.7%

TX       7,360    6.08%            58.3%    3,009    40.9%    4,350    59.1%    -177     -5.9%    -4.8%

                                                                                               

SD       382      0.32%            42.7%    141      37.0%    241      63.0%    8        5.7%     4.2%

MT       440      0.36%            63.0%    170      38.6%    270      61.4%    4        2.3%     1.8%

IN       2,448    2.02%            38.6%    987      40.3%    1,461    59.7%    -18      -1.9%&    -1.5%

KY       1,782    1.47%            52.6%    712      39.9%    1,070    60.1%    1        0.1%     0.1%

MS       1,130    0.93%            49.6%    522      46.1%    609      53.9%    -64      -12.2%%   -11.3%

                                                                                               

SC       1,600    1.32%            59.4%    742      46.4%    858      53.6%    -80      -10.8%%   -10.0%

GA       3,280    2.71%            63.9%    1,402    42.7%    1,878    57.3%    -36      -2.6%&    -2.2%

LA       1,922    1.59%            47.8%    857      44.6%    1,066    55.4%    -37      -4.3%&    -3.8%

TN       2,421    2.00%            66.7%    1,043    43.1%    1,378    56.9%    -6       --0.6%    -0.5%

WV       750      0.62%            48.7%    305      40.6%    446      59.4%    22       7.1%     5.8%

                                                                                               

NC       3,487    2.88%            52.6%    1,723    49.4%    1,764    50.6%    -197     -11.4%   -11.3%

AZ       1,998    1.65%            57.3%    939      47.0%    1,058    53.0%    -46      -4.9%&    -4.6%

AR       1,043    0.86%            60.2%    473      45.3%    571      54.7%    -3       --0.6%    -0.5%

VA       3,172    2.62%            56.4%    1,580    49.8%    1,592    50.2%    -125     -7.9%    -7.9%

MO       2,715    2.24%            47.0%    1,338    49.3%    1,377    50.7%    -79      -5.9%&    -5.8%

                                                                                               

EVEN                                                                               

FL       7,548    6.24%            49.0%    3,870    51.3%    3,678    48.7%    -287     -7.4%    -7.6%

CO       2,103    1.74%            55.5%    1,066    50.7%    1,037    49.3%    -64      -6.0%&    -6.1%

NV       816      0.67%            49.1%    438      53.7%    377      46.3%    -41      -9.4%    -10.1%

OH       5,599    4.62%            45.0%    3,045    54.4%    2,554    45.6%    -305     -10.0%   -10.9%

NM       748      0.62%            56.9%    400      53.5%    348      46.5%    -29      -7.3%&    -7.8%

                                                                                               

IA       1,494    1.23%            52.6%    764      51.2%    730      48.8%    -22      -2.9%&    -3.0%

WI       2,968    2.45%            55.3%    1,559    52.5%    1,408    47.5%    -70      -4.5%    -4.7%

NH       672      0.55%            44.0%    386      57.5%    286      42.5%    -46      -11.8%   -13.6%

PA       5,732    4.73%            46.8%    3,190    55.7%    2,542    44.3%    -252     -7.9%    -8.8%

MI       4,793    3.96%            50.2%    2,630    54.9%    2,163    45.1%    -151     -5.7%    -6.3%

                                                                                               

MN       2,792    2.31%            45.3%    1,575    56.4%    1,217    43.6%    -130     -8.2%    -9.3%

OR       1,810    1.50%            53.0%    943      52.1%    867      47.9%    0        0.0%     0.0%

                                                                                               

KERRY                                                                              

NJ       3,581    2.96%            59.7%    2,085    58.2%    1,496    41.8%    -174     -8.3%    -9.7%

WA       2,815    2.33%            53.8%    1,628    57.8%    1,187    42.2%    -118     -7.3%    -8.4%

DE       372      0.31%            57.5%    230      61.8%    142      38.2%    -30      -12.9%   -15.9%

HI       426      0.35%            53.4%    242      56.8%    184      43.2%    -10      -4.1%    -4.7%

ME       727      0.60%            61.3%    411      56.5%    316      43.5%    -14      -3.4%    -3.8%

                                                                                               

CA       12,255   10.12%            50.5%   7,413    60.5%    4,842    39.5%    -668     -9.0%    -10.9%

IL       5,239    4.33%            51.9%    3,007    57.4%    2,231    42.6%    -115     -3.8%    -4.4%

CT       1,551    1.28%            51.0%    979      63.1%    572      36.9%    -122     -12.4%   -15.7%

MD       2,359    1.95%            59.4%    1,430    60.6%    929      39.4%    -96      -6.7%&    -8.1%

                                                                                               

HIGH KERRY                                                                                 

NY       7,277    6.01%            57.9%    4,729    65.0%    2,548    35.0%    -415     -8.8%    -11.4%

VT       305      0.25%            53.1%    207      67.8%    98       32.2%    -23      -11.1%%   -15.0%

RI       429      0.35%            44.2%    270      62.9%    159      37.1%    -10      -3.7%    -4.7%

MA       2,875    2.37%            56.5%    1,887    65.6%    988      34.4%    -83      -4.4%&    -5.8%

DC       224      0.19%            53.5%    207      92.2%    17       7.8%     -4       -1.8%    -3.4%

                                                                                               

                                                                                               

                                                                                               

                                           CALCULATED TRUE VOTE              Deviation from Recorded    

State    Votes    Weight           RESP.    Kerry    Pct      Bush     Pct      Votes    Pct      WPE

Total    121,056   100%            53.32%   63,314   52.30%   57,741   47.70%   -4287    -6.77%   -7.08%

 

HBUSH    3,965    3.3%             61.7%    1,306    32.7%    2,659    67.3%    -54      -5.4%&    -3.58%

BUSH     39,582   32.7%            55.2%    17,415   42.8%    22,167   57.2%    -955     -3.6%    -3.49%

EVEN     37,073   30.6%            50.2%    19,868   53.7%    17,205   46.3%    -1,397   -6.8%    -7.35%

KERRY    29,326   24.2%            55.4%    17,426   59.2%    11,900   40.8%    -1,346   -7.5%    -9.07%

HKERRY   11,110   9.2%             53.0%    7,300    70.7%    3,810    29.3%    -535     -6.0%    -8.06%

 

                                                                                   

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

State Exit Poll Deviations by Voting Method

 

There were 1249 precincts exit-polled nationwide.  

Kerry won the state-weighted national poll by 51.8-47.2%.

 

The net 4.26m "red-shift" to Bush is based on the average state exit poll WPE.

Coincidentally, this exactly matched the 4.26m red-shift from the 12:22am NEP to the 2pm Final.

 

 

National Exit Poll

 

         12:22am (13047 respondents)       2pm Final (13660 respondents)

Voted2k Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other      Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other

DNV2k    17%      57%      41%      2%       17%      54%      45%      1%

Gore     39%      91%      8%       1%       37%      90%      10%      0%

Bush     41%      10%      90%      0%       43%      9%       91%      0%

Other    3%       71%      21%      8%       3%       71%      21%      8%

                                                                              

Share   100%    51.41%   47.62%   0.97%     100%    48.48%   51.11%   0.41%

Votes   122.3   62.87    58.24    1.19      122.3   59.29    62.50    0.50

 

 

The largest vote deviations were in the following states:

 

California (668k): 66% Optical scan; 29% DRE

New York (415k): 99% Levers

Ohio (305k): 72% Punch cards; 16% DRE; 12% Optical scan

Florida (287k): 56% DRE; 44% Optical scan

Pennsylvania (252k): 26% DRE; 12% Optical scan; 49% Lever; 12% Punch cards

 

The only all-lever states are NY and CT.

Pennsylvania is 49% Lever.

Oregon votes 100% by mail-in ballots.

 

Recorded 2-party vote by voting method:

Total   DRE      Optiscan Lever   Punch    Paper    Other

121056 36715     45646     15762   15103    2842     4988

100%   30.3%     37.7%     13.0%   12.5%    2.3%    4.1%

 

Vote Deviation to Bush based on state exit poll average WPE:

Dev      DRE      Optiscan Lever   Punch    Paper    Other

4258    1215      1564     788      514      89      88

100%    28.5%     36.7%    18.5%   12.1%    2.1%    2.1%

 

Voting method mix for 1249 exit poll precincts:

Total    DRE      Optiscan Lever   Punch    Paper/Other     

1249     360      573       118     158      40

100%     28.8%    45.9%     9.4%    12.7%    3.2%    

 

 

 

Average WPE (Within Precinct Error) by Location-size

 

                            Average WPE

             Precincts    mean    median    ABS

Total            1249     -6.77    -6.54  p;  13.76

 

URBAN >50K      

Optical          350      -7.2     -5.8 &    12.3

DRE              272      -7.5     -7.6     14.8>

Lever             92      -12.7    -12.5    16.8

Punch            108      -9.3     -10.0    15.2

Paper              5      -6.0     -11.5 ;   15.7

 

TOTAL            827      -8.2     -7.7     14.0>

 

RURAL <50K                                                  

Optical           223     -4.4     -5.0 &    13.2

DRE                88     -6.0     -4.8 &    14.8

Lever              26     -3.2     -5.4     14.7>

Punch              50     -0.8     -1.7 &    12.0

Paper              35     -1.6     -0.6 &    10.5

 

TOTAL             422     -4.0     -4.2 &    13.3

 

 

Voting Method by Location-size

                                                              

                 DRE      Optiscan Lever    Punch    Paper    Total

Precincts        360      573      118      158      40       1249

Pct of Total     28.8%    45.9%    9.4%     12.7%    3.2%     100%

 

5 Categories:

Urban>500k       43       45       11       6        0        105

Urban>50k        76       114      15       30       0        235

Suburbs          153      191      66       72       5        487

10-50k           38       59       8        19       2        126

Rural            50       164      18       31       33       296

 

3 Categories:

Urban >50K       119      159      26       36       0        340

Suburbs          153      191      66       72       5        487

Rural <50K       88       223      26       50       35       422

 

TOTAL            360      573      118      158      40       1249

 

 

 

State Voting Method Mix

 

Exit Poll Vote Discrepancies (in thousands)

Kerry (-), Bush (+)

 

 

          Avg     Vote          Percentage Mix                                         

State     WPE     Dev      DRE      Optiscan Lever    Punch    Paper    Other

CA       -10.9%   -668   p;  29       66       0        4        0        0

NY       -11.4%   -415   p;  1        0        99       0        0        0

OH       -10.9%   -305   p;  16       12       0        72       0        0

FL       -7.6%    -287  ;   56       44       0        0        0        0

PA       -8.8%    -252  ;   26       12       49       12       1        0

 

NC       -11.3%   -197   p;  43       43       2        9        0        4

TX       -4.8%    -177  ;   45       45       3        5        2        0

NJ       -9.7%    -174  ;   73       1        25       0        0        0

MI       -6.3%    -151  ;   4        60       12       20       4        0

MN       -9.3%    -130  ;   0        91       0        0        9        0

 

VA       -7.9%    -125  ;   33       22       27       16       0        1

CT       -15.7%   -122   p;  0        0        100      0        0        0

WA       -8.4%    -118  ;   14       63       0        23       0        0

IL       -4.4%    -115  ;   0        32       0        63       0        5

AL       -11.3%   -106   p;  15       85       0        0        0        0

 

MD       -8.1%    -96  &    100      0        0        0        0        0

MA       -5.8%    -83  &    0        69       6        0        21       4

SC       -10.0%   -80   ;   86       14       0        0        0        0

MO       -5.8%    -79  &    0        12       0        65       1        22

WI       -4.7%    -70  &    0        54       0        0        18       28

 

CO       -6.1%    -64  &    37       61       0        1        0        0

MS       -11.3%   -64   ;   15       68       8        9        0        0

NH       -13.6%   -46   ;   0        65       0        0        35       0

NV       -10.1%   -41   ;   100      0        0        0        0        0

LA       -3.8%    -37  &    54       0        46       0        0        0

 

GA       -2.2%    -36  &    100      0        0        0        0        0

NE       -8.1%    -31  &    0        56       0        0        4        40

NM       -7.8%    -29  &    90       10       0        0        0        0

UT       -6.4%    -29  &    0        0        0        9        0        91

AZ       -4.6%    -24  &    0        100      0        0        0        0

 

VT       -15.0%   -23   ;   0        51       0        0        49       0

IA       -3.0%    -22  &    11       88       1        0        0        0

IN       -1.5%    -18  &    79       0        1        20       0        1

DE       -15.9%   -18   ;   100      0        0        0        0        0

AK       -9.6%    -14  &    0        90       0        0        10       0

 

ME       -3.8%    -14  &    0        67       0        0        33       0

RI       -4.7%    -10  &    0        100      0        0        0        0

HI       -4.7%    -10  &    50       50       0        0        0        0

KS       -1.7%    -10  &    37       60       0        0        3        0

DC       -3.4%    -6  &nnbsp;    50       50       0        0        0        0

 

TN       -0.5%    -6  &nnbsp;    75       10       5        11       0        0

WY       -4.3%    -5  &nnbsp;    2        76       3        14       5        0

AR       -0.5%    -5  &nnbsp;    5        65       9        17       4        0

ID       -1.0%    -3  &nnbsp;    0        33       0        60       8        0

OR       0.0%     0        0        18       0        0        0        82

 

KY       0.1%     1        81       17       2        0        0        0

MT       1.8%     4        0        81       0        13       6        0

ND       5.2%     8        7        90       0        0        3        0

SD       4.2%     8        0        1        0        0        6        93

OK       1.9%     14       0        100      0        0        0        0

WV       5.8%     22       8        42       6        37       7        0

 

Votes          -4258      -1215    -1564    -788  ;   -514     -89 &nnbsp;    -88

Mix              100%      28.5%    36.7%   18.5%   12.1%    2.1%     2.1%

      

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

National Exit Poll Timeline Summary

 

There was a steady Kerry trend (51-48%) on Election Day. The timeline shows how the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote the day after the election. Category weightings, except for How Voted and Party ID, were essentially unchanged in the Final NEP.  But the Bush vote shares had to be inflated in order to match the recorded vote. 

 

1. Kerry vote shares for all demographics were fairly constant until they were changed in the Final NEP.

2. Bush/Gore Voted 2000 weights changed abruptly from 12:22am to the Final (41/39 to 43/37).

3. Party ID weights changed from sharply from 12:22am to the Final (38/35 to 37/37).

4. Kerry won by over 4 million votes (51-48%) in all timelines prior to the Final.

    He lost the Final by 3.22 million.

5. Using adjusted, feasible weights, Kerry won by 7-9 million in timelines prior to the Final.

    He won the Final by 3.36 million.

6. Probabilities of  discrepancies decreased dramatically as the number of respondents increased.

7. A 20% exit poll cluster effect was assumed for calculating the margin of error.

 

NEP updates and number of respondents

 

 

These are links to 2004 preliminary and final national exit polls.

 

11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

 

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

 

 

Voted 2000 Summary

 

NEP       Sample Poll      Actual Vote   Prob            Adjusted Vote   Prob

Timeline Size    MoE      Kerry    Margin 1 in          Kerry   Margin   1 in

3:59pm   8349     1.29%    51.01%   4.96     17k        53.01%   9.39   397bn

7:38pm   11027    1.12%    50.90%   4.66     88k        52.47%   8.17   695bn

12:22am  13047    1.03%    51.41%   4.63     81mm       52.57%   7.52   281tr

2:05pm   13660    1.01%    48.48%   -3.22    nc  &nnbsp;      51.17%   3.36   nc

 

8349 Respondents                  

11/02 3:59pm               Vote Shares                Votes (in millions)

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      18.34    15%      62%      37%      1%       11.37    6.79     0.18

Gore     47.69    39%      91%      8%       1%       43.39    3.81     0.48

Bush     51.35    42%      9%       90%      0%       4.62     46.22    0.00

Other    4.89     4%       61%      12%      16%      2.98     0.59     0.78

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     51.01%   46.95%   1.18%    62.37    57.41    1.44

 

11027 Respondents                                                             

11/02 7:38pm                                                                  

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      20.79    17%      59%      39%      1%       12.26    8.11     0.21

Gore     46.46    38%      91%      8%       1%       42.28    3.72     0.46

Bush     50.13    41%      9%       90%      0%       4.51     45.12    0.00

Other    4.89     4%       65%      13%      16%      3.18     0.64     0.78

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     50.90%   47.09%   1.19%    62.24    57.58    1.46

 

13047 Respondents                                                    

11/03 12:22am                                                                 

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      20.79    17%      57%      41%      2%       11.85    8.52     0.42

Gore     47.69    39%      91%      8%       1%       43.39    3.81     0.48

Bush     50.13    41%      10%      90%      0%       5.01     45.12    0.00

Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     51.41%   47.62%   0.97%    62.86    58.22    1.19

 

Final 13660 Respondents                                                             

11/03 2:05pm                                                

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      20.79    17%      54%      45%      1%       11.22    9.35     0.21

Gore     45.24    37%      90%      10%      0%       40.72    4.52     0.00

Bush     52.58    43%      9%       91%      0%       4.73     47.84    0.00

Other    3.67     3%       71%      21%      8%       2.60     0.77     0.29

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     48.48%   51.11%   0.41%    59.28    62.49    0.50

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Voted 2000 Timeline - adjusted weights                                                                     

(2000 recorded vote, 0.87% annual mortality, 95% turnout of 2000 voters)

                                                                     

8349 Respondents

11/02 3:59pm              Vote Shares                 Votes (in millions)

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      26.22    21.44%   62%      37%      1%       16.26    9.70     0.26

Gore     46.75    38.24%   91%      8%       0%       42.55    3.74     0.00

Bush     46.25    37.83%   9%       90%      0%       4.16     41.63    0.00

Other    3.04     2.49%    61%      12%      16%      1.86     0.37     0.49

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     53.01%   45.34%   0.61%    64.82    55.44    0.75

 

11027 Respondents

11/02 7:38pm                                                                  

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      26.22    21.44%   59%      39%      1%       15.47    10.23    0.26

Gore     46.75    38.24%   91%      8%       1%       42.55    3.74     0.47

Bush     46.25    37.83%   9%       90%      0%       4.16     41.63    0.00

Other    3.04     2.49%    65%      13%      16%      1.98     0.40     0.49

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     52.47%   45.79%   1.00%    64.16    55.99    1.22

 

13047 Respondents

11/03 12:22am                                                                 

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      26.22    21.44%   57%      41%      2%       14.95    10.75    0.52

Gore     46.75    38.24%   91%      8%       1%       42.55    3.74     0.47

Bush     46.25    37.83%   10%      90%      0%       4.63     41.63    0.00

Other    3.04     2.49%    71%      21%      8%       2.16     0.64     0.24

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     52.57%   46.42%   1.01%    64.28    56.76    1.24

 

13660 Respondents

11/03 2:05pm                                                                  

2000     Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      26.22    21.44%   54%      45%      1%       14.16    11.80    0.26

Gore     46.75    38.24%   90%      10%      0%       42.08    4.68     0.00

Bush     46.25    37.83%   9%       91%      0%       4.16     42.09    0.00

Other    3.04     2.49%    71%      21%      8%       2.16     0.64     0.24

                                                                     

Total    122.3    100%     51.17%   48.42%   0.41%    62.56    59.20    0.51

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

NEP Demographic Timeline

 

Change from 12:22am to 1:25pm Final required to match recorded vote count   

 

 

NEP Update       3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am   1:25pm Final   3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am   1:25pm Final

Respondents      8349     11027     13047    13660 Change    8349     11027    13047    13660 Change

                                                                                      

                                           Category Weight                                      Kerry Vote Share         

GENDER                                                                                

Male             42       46       46       46               47       47       47       44      -3

Female           58       54       54       54               53       54       54       51      -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.48    50.78    50.78    47.78

VOTE (mil)                                                   61.72    62.08    62.08    58.42

                                                                                      

REGION                                                                                

East             23       22       22       22               58       58       58       56      -2

Midwest          25       26       26       26               50       50       50       48      -2 

South            31       31       31       32   +1          44       45       45       42      -3

West             21       21       21       20   -1      &nnbsp;   53       53       53       50      -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.61    50.84    50.84    48.24

VOTE                                                         61.88    62.16    62.16    58.98

                                                                                      

PARTY ID                                                                              

Democrat         39       38       38       37   -1          90       90       90       89      -1

Republican       36       36       35       37   +2           7       7        7         6      -1

Independent       25      26       27       26   -1          52       52       52       49      -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.62    50.24    50.69    47.89

VOTE                                                         61.89    61.42    61.97    58.55

 

IDEOLOGY                                                                              

Liberal           22      22       22       21   -1          86       87       86       85      -1

Moderate         45       45       45       45               58       57       57       54      -3

Conservative     33       33       33       34   +1          16       16       16       15      -1

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.3     50.07    49.85    47.25

VOTE                                                         61.50    61.22    60.95    57.77

                                                                                      

VOTED 2000                                                                                     

Did Not Vote      15      17       17       17               62       59       57       54      -3

Gore             39       38       39       37   -2          91       91       91       90      -1

Bush             42       41       41       43   +2           9        9       10        9      -1

Other             4        4        3        3               61       65       71       71

PCT              100      100      100      100              51.01    50.9     51.41    48.48

VOTE                                                         62.36    62.23    62.85    59.27

                                                                                      

WHEN DECIDED                                                                                   

Today             6        6        6        5               52       54       53       52       -1

Last 3 Days       3        3        3        4               50       54       53       55       +2

Last Week         2        2        2        2               48       48       48       48

Last Month        10      10       10       10               61       61       60       54       -6

Over 30 Days     79       79       79       79               50       50       50       46       -4

PCT              100      100      100      100              51.18    51.42    51.23    47.5

VOTE                                                         62.57    62.87    62.63    58.07

                                                                                      

EDUCATION                                                                                      

No High School    4        4        4        4               50       52       52       50       -2

High School Grad   22     22       22       22               50       51       51       47       -4

Some College      30      31       31       32   +1          48       47       47       46       -1

College Grad     26       26       26       26               48       49       48       46       -2

Post Grad        18       17       17       16   -1          58       58       58       55       -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.32    50.34    50.21    47.82

VOTE                                                         61.52    61.55    61.39    58.46

                                                                                      

RACE/GENDER                                                                                    

White Male       33       36       36       36               40       41       41       37       -4

White Female     44       41       41       41               47       47       47       44       -3

Non-white Male   10       10       10       10               69       70       69       67       -2

Non-white Female 13       13       13       13               77       77       77       75       -2

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.79    51.04    50.94    47.81

VOTE                                                         62.10    62.40    62.28    58.45

                                                                                      

AGE                                                                                   

18-29             15      17       17       17               56       56       56       54        -2

30-44             27      27       29       29               48       49       49       46        -3

45-59             31      30       30       30               52       51       51       48        -3

60+              27       26       24       24               48       48       48       46        -2

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.44    50.53    50.26    47.96

VOTE                                                         61.67    61.78    61.47    58.64

                                                                                      

INCOME                                                                                

0-15k            9         9        9        8   -1          68       66       66       63        -3

15-30           15        15       15       15               59       59       59       57        -2

30-50           22        22       22       22               53       52       52       50        -2

50-75           22        23       23       23               46       45       45       43        -2  

75-100          14        13       13       14   +1          49       49       49       45        -4

100-150         11        11       11       11               44       45       45       42        -3

150-200          4         4        4        4               45       47       47       42        -5

200+             3         3        3        3               40       41       41       35        -6

PCT              100      100      100      100              51.45    51.01    51.01    48.13

VOTE                                                         62.90    62.36    62.36    58.84

 

RELIGION                                                                              

Protestant       53       53       53       53               43       43       43       40        -3

Catholic         27       27       27       27               50       50       50       47        -3

Jewish            3        3        3        3               77       77       77       74        -3

Other             7        7        7        7               76       75       75       74        -1

None             10       10       10       10               69       70       70       67        -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.82    50.85    50.85    47.99

VOTE                                                         62.13    62.17    62.17    58.67

                                                                                      

MILITARY EXPERIENCE                                                                                     

Yes               18      18       18       18               43       43       43       41       -2

No                82      82       82       82               52       53       53       50       -3

PCT              100      100      100      100              50.38    51.2     51.2     48.38

VOTE                                                         61.59    62.60    62.60    59.15

                              

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

National Exit Poll – Preliminary, Final and Adjusted (True)

 

Adjusted shares matched to the calculated True vote.

Final shares matched to the Recorded vote (initial 95% reported).

 

                                                                                                           

                        PRELIMINARY                 ADJUSTED (True Vote)                               FINAL

                      12:22am (13047)               12:22am (13047)                                1:25pm (13660)

              

 CATEGORY         Kerry    Bush     Other             Kerry   Bush     Other                     Kerry         Bush     Other

Average          50.83%   47.92%   1.25%            52.50%   46.50%   1.00%                     47.94%         51.11%   0.96%

Total Votes      62.16    58.60    1.53             66.01    58.47    1.26                      58.62          62.50    1.17

                                                                                                                   

Gender           50.78%   48.22%   1.00%            52.47%   46.53%   1.00%                     47.78%         51.22%   1.00%

Party-ID         51.07%   47.85%   1.08%            52.50%   46.50%   1.00%                     47.89%         51.22%   0.89%

Voted 2000       51.43%   47.60%   0.97%            52.56%   46.43%   1.01%                     48.48%         51.11%   0.41%

Region           50.53%   47.95%   1.52%            52.52%   46.48%   1.00%                     48.24%         51.08%   0.68%

Education        50.43%   48.18%   1.39%            52.49%   46.51%   1.00%                     47.82%         51.24%   0.94%

                                                                                                                   

Race             50.98%   47.61%   1.41%            52.47%   46.53%   1.00%                     47.81%         50.99%   1.20%

Age              50.26%   47.69%   2.05%            52.42%   46.58%   1.00%                     47.96%         51.28%   0.76%

Income           51.07%   47.75%   1.18%            52.52%   46.48%   1.00%                     48.13%         51.02%   0.85%

Ideology         50.18%   48.60%   1.22%            52.51%   46.49%   1.00%                     47.25%         51.54%   1.21%

Religion         50.78%   48.01%   1.21%            52.49%   46.51%   1.00%                     47.99%         50.94%   1.07%

                                                                                                                   

Military         51.20%   47.62%   1.18%            52.56%   46.44%   1.00%                     48.38%         50.44%   1.18%

Decided          51.23%   47.93%   0.84%            52.54%   46.46%   1.00%                     47.50%         51.22%   1.28%

                                                                                                                   

1.96*stdev       0.79%    0.59%    0.62%            0.08%    0.10%    0.06%                     0.68%         0.52%    0.50%

                                                                                                                   

2-pty vote 97.5% Confidence                                                                                                                  

Max              51.62%   48.51%   1.88%            52.58%   47.60%   1.06%                     48.62%         51.63%   1.46%

Min              50.04%   47.33%   0.63%            52.42%   47.39%   0.94%                     47.25%         50.59%   0.45%

                                                                                                                   

 

 

                        PRELIMINARY                   ADJUSTED (True Vote)                               FINAL

GENDER

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other           Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other

Male     46.0%    47%      52%      1%               46.0%    49.5%    49.5%    1.0%             46%     44%      55%      1%

Fem      54.0%    54%      45%      1%               54.0%    55.0%    44.0%    1.0%             54%     51%      48%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.78%   48.22%   1.00%            100%     52.47%   46.53%   1.00%            100%   47.78%   51.22%   1.00%

Votes    122.30   62.10    58.97    1.22             125.74   65.98    58.51    1.26             122.3   58.43   62.64    1.22

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                Dem -1%; Rep +2%; Ind -1%

PARTY ID

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other

Dem      38%      91%      9%       0%               38%      91%      8%       1%               37%       89%      11%      0%

Rep      35%      7%       93%      0%               35%      8%       91%      1%               37%       6%       93%      1%

Ind      27%      52%      44%      4%               27%      56%      43%      1%               26%       49%      49%      2%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.07%   47.85%   1.08%            100%     52.50%   46.50%   1.00%            100%    47.89%   51.22%   0.89%

Votes    122.30   62.46    58.52    1.32             125.74   66.01    58.47    1.26             122.3   58.57    62.64    1.09

 

                                                                                                                           

VOTED 2000

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            turnout                                     Gore -2%+ Bush +2%                 

New      11%      55%      43%      2%               Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush   Other

DNV      6%       61%      37%      2%               21.49%   57%      41%      2%               17%      54%      45%      1%

Gore     39%      91%      8%       1%               38.23%   91%      8%       1%               37%      90%      10%      0%

Bush     41%      10%      90%      0%               37.83%   10%      90%      0%               43%       9%       91%      0%

Other    3%       71%      21%      8%               2.45%    71%      21%      8%               3%       71%      21%      8%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.43%   47.60%   0.97%            100%     52.56%   46.43%   1.01%            100%    48.48%   51.11%   0.41%

Votes    122.30   62.90    58.21    1.19             125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27             122.3   59.29    62.50    0.50

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                South +1%; West -1%      &           

REGION

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

East     22%      58%      41%      1%               22%      59%      40%      1%               22%      56%     43%      1%

Midw     26%      50%      49%      1%               26%      52%      47%      1%               26%      48%     51%      1%

South    31%      44%      54%      2%               31%      46%      53%      1%               32%      42%     58%      0%

West     21%      53%      45%      2%               21%      56%      43%      1%               20%      50%     49%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.53%   47.95%   1.52%            100%     52.52%   46.48%   1.00%            100%    48.24%   51.08%   0.68%

Votes    122.30   61.80    58.64    1.86             125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26             122.3   59.00    62.47    0.83

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                            Some college+1%; Post Grad -1%      &            

EDUCATION

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush   Other

NoHS     4%       53%      46%      1%               4%       51%      48%      1%               4%       50%     49%      1%

HSG      22%      50%      48%      2%               22%      53%      46%      1%               22%      47%     52%      1%

Col      31%      48%      51%      1%               31%      50%      49%      1%               32%      46%     54%      0%

ColG     26%      49%      50%      1%               26%      51%      48%      1%               26%      46%     52%      2%

PostG    17%      57%      41%      2%               17%      59%      40%      1%               16%      55%     44%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.43%   48.18%   1.39%            100%     52.49%   46.51%   1.00%            100%    47.82%   51.24%   0.94%

Votes    122.30   61.67    58.92    1.70             125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26             122.3   58.48    62.66    1.15

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

RACE AND GENDER

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush   Other

WMale    36%      40%      59%      1%               36%      43%      56%      1%               36%      37%     62%      1%

WFem     41%      47%      51%      2%               41%      48%      51%      1%               41%      44%     55%      1%

NwMale   10%      73%      26%      1%               10%      73%      26%      1%               10%      67%     30%      3%

NwFem    13%      77%      22%      1%               13%      77%      22%      1%               13%      75%     24%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.98%   47.61%   1.41%            100%     52.47%   46.53%   1.00%            100%     47.81% 50.99%   1.20%

Votes    122.30   62.35    58.22    1.72             125.74   65.98    58.51    1.26             122.3    58.47   62.36    1.47

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                        PRELIMINARY                   ADJUSTED (True Vote)                               FINAL

AGE

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

18-29    17%      56%      42%      2%               17%      60%      39%      1%               17%      54%     45%      1%

30-44    29%      48%      49%      3%               29%      50%      49%      1%               29%      46%     53%      1%

45-59    30%      51%      47%      2%               30%      54%      45%      1%               30%      48%     51%      1%

60+      24%      48%      51%      1%               24%      48%      51%      1%               24%      46%     54%      0%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.26%   47.69%   2.05%            100%     52.42%   46.58%   1.00%            100%    47.96%   51.28%   0.76%

Votes    122.30   61.47    58.32    2.51             125.74   65.91    58.57    1.26             122.3   58.65    62.71     0.93

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                0-15 -1%; 75-100 +1%                        

INCOME

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

0-15K    9%       65%      34%      1%               9%       67%      32%      1%               8%       63%     36%      1%

15-30    15%      60%      39%      1%               15%      61%      38%      1%               15%      57%     42%      1%

30-50    22%      53%      46%      1%               22%      54%      45%      1%               22%      50%     49%      1%

50-75    23%      46%      53%      1%               23%      47%      52%      1%               23%      43%     56%      1%

75-100   13%      48%      51%      1%               13%      49%      50%      1%               14%      45%     55%      0%

100-150   11%     43%      55%      2%               11%      48%      51%      1%               11%      42%     57%      1%

150-200   4%      43%      55%      2%               4%       45%      54%      1%               4%       42%     58%      0%

200+     3%       43%      55%      2%               3%       40%      59%      1%               3%       35%     63%      2%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.07%   47.75%   1.18%            100%     52.52%   46.48%   1.00%            100%    48.13%   51.02% 0.85%

Votes    122.30   62.46    58.40    1.44             125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26             122.3   58.86    62.39   1.04

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                Lib -1%; Con +1%                  

IDEOLOGY

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

Lib      22%      86%      12%      2%               22%      91%      8%       1%               21%     85%      13%      2%

Mod      45%      57%      42%      1%               45%      59%      40%      1%               45%     54%      45%      1%

Con      33%      17%      82%      1%               33%      18%      81%      1%               34%     15%      84%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.18%   48.60%   1.22%            100%     52.51%   46.49%   1.00%            100%    47.25%   51.54%   1.21%

Votes    122.30   61.37    59.44    1.49             125.74   66.03    58.46    1.26             122.3   57.78    63.03    1.48

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

RELIGION

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

Prot     53%      43%      56%      1%               53%      44%      55%      1%               53%      40%     59%      1%

Cath     27%      50%      49%      1%               27%      52%      47%      1%               27%      47%     52%      1%

Jewish   3%       78%      22%      0%               3%       79%      20%      1%               3%       74%     25%      1%

Other    7%       75%      22%      3%               7%       78%      21%      1%               7%       74%     24%      2%

None     10%      69%      29%      2%               10%      73%      26%      1%               10%      67%     32%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     50.78%   48.01%   1.21%            100%     52.49%   46.51%   1.00%            100%    47.99%   50.94%   1.07%

Votes    122.30   62.10    58.71    1.48             125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26             122.3   58.69    62.30    1.31

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                           

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

Yes      18%      43%      55%      2%               18%      46%      53%      1%               18%      41%     57%      2%

No       82%      53%      46%      1%               82%      54%      45%      1%               82%      50%     49%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.20%   47.62%   1.18%            100%     52.56%   46.44%   1.00%            100%    48.38%   50.44%   1.18%

Votes    122.30   62.62    58.24    1.44             125.74   66.09    58.39    1.26             122.3   59.17    61.69    1.44

                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                           

                                                                                               Today -1%; Last3 +1%                         

WHEN DECIDED

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight Kerry    Bush   Other

Today    6%       53%      40%      7%               6%       66%      33%      1%               5%       52%     45%      3%

3days    3%       53%      41%      6%               3%       66%      33%      1%               4%       55%     42%      3%

7days    2%       48%      50%      2%               2%       50%      49%      1%               2%       48%     51%      1%

30days   10%      60%      38%      2%               10%      61%      38%      1%               10%      54%     44%      2%

Over30   79%      50%      50%      0%               79%      50%      49%      1%               79%      46%     53%      1%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.23%   47.93%   0.84%            100%     52.54%   46.46%   1.00%            100%    47.50%   51.22%   1.28%

Votes    122.30   62.65    58.62    1.03             125.74   66.06    58.42    1.26             122.3   58.09    62.64    1.57

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

Effect of changes in demographic vote shares on Kerry’s national vote

The base case scenario assumes the following:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares matched to “Voted 2000” base case
2) 0.87% annual mortality rate (3.5% over 4 years)
3) 95% voter turnout of all 2000 voters

Kerry wins the base case: 52.6-46.4%

 

Row and column ranges refer to Kerry vote shares.

 

GENDER

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Male             58.34    46.4%    49.5%    49.5%    1.0%    

Female           67.40    53.6%    55.0%    44.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.4%    46.6%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   65.95    58.56    1.23    

                                                            

         Male                                       

         44.0%    45.0%    46.0%    47.0%    48.0%    49.0%    50.0%

Female

51%      47.8%    48.2%    48.7%    49.1%    49.6%    50.1%    50.5%

52%      48.3%    48.8%    49.2%    49.7%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%

53%      48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.2%    50.7%    51.1%    51.6%

54%      49.4%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.2%    51.7%    52.1%

55%      49.9%    50.4%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%    52.2%    52.7%

                                                            

PARTY ID

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Dem              47.78    38.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%    

Rep              44.01    35.0%    8.0%     91.0%    1.0%    

Ind              33.95    27.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.01    58.47    1.26    

                                                            

         Kerry Share of Democrats                                    

Dem ID   86.0%    87.0%    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%

 

35%      48.0%    48.4%    48.7%    49.1%    49.4%    49.8%    50.1%

36%      48.9%    49.2%    49.6%    50.0%    50.3%    50.7%    51.0%

37%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%

38%      50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.9%

39%      51.5%    51.9%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%    53.8%

40%      52.3%    52.7%    53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%

                                                            

Kerry    Kerry share of Democrats                                    

share    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%    93.0%    94.0%

Ind

49%      49.5%    49.9%    50.2%    50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%

50%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.6%    52.0%

51%      50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%

52%      50.3%    50.7%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%

53%      50.6%    50.9%    51.3%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.8%

54%      50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.3%    52.7%    53.1%

                                                            

                                                            

VOTED IN 2000                                                        

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

DNV2k            27.02    21.5%    57.0%    41.0%    2.0%    

Gore             48.08    38.2%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%    

Bush             47.56    37.8%    10.0%    90.0%    0.0%    

Other            3.08     2.5%     71.0%    21.0%    8.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.6%    46.4%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27    

                                                            

                       DNV2k                                     

         49.0%    51.0%    53.0%    54.0%    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%

Gore

86%      48.9%    49.4%    49.8%    50.0%    50.7%    51.1%    51.5%

87%      49.3%    49.7%    50.2%    50.4%    51.0%    51.5%    51.9%

88%      49.7%    50.1%    50.6%    50.8%    51.4%    51.8%    52.3%

89%      50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.8%    52.2%    52.7%

90%      50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.5%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%

91%      50.8%    51.3%    51.7%    51.9%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%

92%      51.2%    51.7%    52.1%    52.3%    52.9%    53.4%    53.8%

 

 

                                                   

             Bush 2000 voters                       

Gore     7.0%    7.5%     8.0%     8.5%     9.0%     9.5%     10.0%

2000

85%      49.1%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%

86%      49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%

87%      49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%

88%      50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%

89%      50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%

90%      51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%

91%      51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.6%

                                                            

                                                            

REGION

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

East             27.66    22.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%    

Midwest          32.69    26.0%    52.0%    47.0%    1.0%    

South            38.98    31.0%    46.0%    53.0%    1.0%    

West             26.41    21.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26    

                                                            

         East                                       

         56.0%    57.0%    58.0%    59.0%    60.0%    61.0%    62.0%

Midwest

48%      50.8%    51.0%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%

49%      51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%

50%      51.3%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.7%

51%      51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    52.9%

52%      51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%    53.2%

53%      52.1%    52.3%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.2%    53.4%

54%      52.4%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.7%

                                                            

                                                            

EDUCATION

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

No High School   5.03     4.0%     51.0%    48.0%    1.0%    

High School      27.66    22.0%    53.0%    46.0%    1.0%    

Some College     38.98    31.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%    

College Grad     32.69    26.0%    51.0%    48.0%    1.0%    

Post Grad        21.38    17.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26    

                                                            

         High School Grad                                   

College   47.0%   48.0%    49.0%    50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%

Grad

46%      49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%

47%      50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.5%

48%      50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%

49%      50.7%    50.9%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%    52.0%

50%      50.9%    51.1%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%

51%      51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%

52%      51.4%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.8%

53%      51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%

                                                            

                                                            

RACE AND GENDER

         Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

WMale    45.27    36.0%    43.0%    56.0%    1.0%    

WFem     51.55    41.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%    

NwMale   12.57    10.0%    73.0%    26.0%    1.0%    

NwFem    16.35    13.0%    77.0%    22.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes    125.74   125.74   65.98    58.51    1.26    

 

         Non-white Female

         75.0%    76.0%    77.0%    78.0%    79.0%    80.0%    81.0%

White Female

44%      50.6%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%    51.1%    51.2%    51.4%

45%      51.0%    51.1%    51.2%    51.4%    51.5%    51.6%    51.8%

46%      51.4%    51.5%    51.7%    51.8%    51.9%    52.0%    52.2%

47%      51.8%    51.9%    52.1%    52.2%    52.3%    52.5%    52.6%

48%      52.2%    52.3%    52.5%    52.6%    52.7%    52.9%    53.0%

49%      52.6%    52.8%    52.9%    53.0%    53.1%    53.3%    53.4%

50%      53.0%    53.2%    53.3%    53.4%    53.6%    53.7%    53.8%

                                                            

                                                            

AGE             

         Votes   Weight   Kerry   Bush     Other   

18-29    21.38    17.0%    60.0%    39.0%    1.0%    

30-44    36.46    29.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%    

45-59    37.72    30.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%    

60+      30.18    24.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share    Total    100.0%   52.4%    46.6%    1.0%    

Votes    125.74   125.74   65.91    58.57    1.26    

                                                            

         18-29                                     

         54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%    58.0%    59.0%    60.0%

45-59

48%      49.6%    49.8%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.6%

49%      49.9%    50.1%    50.2%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    50.9%

50%      50.2%    50.4%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.1%    51.2%

51%      50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%    51.18%   51.4%    51.5%

52%      50.8%    51.0%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.8%

53%      51.1%    51.3%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.1%

54%      51.4%    51.6%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.4%

                                                            

                                                            

INCOME          

        Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

0-15K    11.32    9.0%     67.0%    32.0%    1.0%    

15-30    18.86    15.0%    61.0%    38.0%    1.0%    

30-50    27.66    22.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%    

50-75    28.92    23.0%    47.0%    52.0%    1.0%    

75-100   16.35    13.0%    49.0%    50.0%    1.0%    

100-150   13.83   11.0%    48.0%    51.0%    1.0%    

150-200   5.03    4.0%     45.0%    54.0%    1.0%    

200+      3.77    3.0%     40.0%    59.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes    125.74   125.74   66.04    58.44    1.26    

                                                            

          30-50k                                    

         50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%

75-100k

45%      51.1%    51.3%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%

46%      51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.6%

47%      51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%

48%      51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.6%    52.8%

49%      51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%

50%      51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.7%    52.9%    53.1%

51%      51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.2%

52%      52.0%    52.3%    52.5%    52.7%    52.9%    53.1%    53.4%

                                                            

                                                            

IDEOLOGY        

                  Votes   Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Liberal          27.66    22.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%    

Moderate         56.58    45.0%    59.0%    40.0%    1.0%    

Conservative     41.49    33.0%    18.0%    81.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.03    58.46    1.26    

                                                            

        Liberal                                    

         85.0%    86.0%    87.0%    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%

Moderate

54%      48.9%    49.2%    49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.0%    50.3%

55%      49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%

56%      49.8%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%

57%      50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%

58%      50.7%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.1%

59%      51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.5%

                                                            

                                                            

RELIGION

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Protestant       66.64    53.0%    44.0%    55.0%    1.0%    

Catholic         33.95    27.0%    52.0%    47.0%    1.0%    

Jewish            3.77    3.0%     79.0%    20.0%    1.0%    

Other             8.80    7.0%     78.0%    21.0%    1.0%    

None             12.57    10.0%    73.0%    26.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.00    58.48    1.26    

                                                            

        Catholic                                   

         47.0%    48.0%    49.0%    50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%

Protestant

40%      49.0%    49.3%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%

41%      49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%    51.2%

42%      50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.7%

43%      50.6%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%

44%      51.1%    51.4%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.5%    52.8%

45%      51.7%    51.9%    52.2%    52.5%    52.8%    53.0%    53.3%

46%      52.2%    52.5%    52.7%    53.0%    53.3%    53.6%    53.8%

47%      52.7%    53.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.8%    54.1%    54.4%

                                                            

                                                            

SERVED IN MILITARY       

                  Votes   Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Yes              22.63    18.0%    46.0%    53.0%    1.0%    

No               103.11   82.0%    54.0%    45.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.6%    46.4%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.09    58.39    1.26    

                                                            

         No                                         

         50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%

Yes

41%      48.4%    49.2%    50.0%    50.8%    51.7%    52.5%    53.3%

42%      48.6%    49.4%    50.2%    51.0%    51.8%    52.7%    53.5%

43%      48.7%    49.6%    50.4%    51.2%    52.0%    52.8%    53.7%

44%      48.9%    49.7%    50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.0%    53.8%

45%      49.1%    49.9%    50.7%    51.6%    52.4%    53.2%    54.0%

                                                            

                                                            

WHEN DECIDED

         Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Today    7.54     6.0%     66.0%    33.0%    1.0%    

3days    3.77     3.0%     66.0%    33.0%    1.0%    

7days    2.51     2.0%     50.0%    49.0%    1.0%    

30days   12.57    10.0%    61.0%    38.0%    1.0%    

Over30   99.33    79.0%    50.0%    49.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share    Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes    125.74   125.74   66.06    58.42    1.26    

 

         Today                                      

         54.0%   56.0%    58.0%    61.0%    63.0%    65.0%    66.0%

Over30

48%      50.2%    50.4%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    50.9%    51.0%

49%      51.0%    51.2%    51.3%    51.5%    51.6%    51.7%    51.8%

50%      51.8%    51.9%    52.1%    52.2%    52.4%    52.5%    52.5%

51%      52.6%    52.7%    52.9%    53.0%    53.2%    53.3%    53.3%

52%      53.4%    53.5%    53.6%    53.8%    53.9%    54.1%    54.1%

53%      54.2%    54.3%    54.4%    54.6%    54.7%    54.9%    54.9%

54%      55.0%    55.1%    55.2%    55.4%    55.5%    55.6%    55.7%

55%      55.8%    55.9%    56.0%    56.2%    56.3%    56.4%    56.5%

 

 

 

The True Vote Model

 

The True Vote model encapsulates mathematical arguments which strongly suggest that Kerry easily won the 2004 election. The base case assumes the 12:22am NEP vote shares. The 2000 recorded vote, mortality rate and 2000 voter turnout in 2004 are used to determine mathematically feasible (and plausible) weights. The model determined that 2.6 million (3.9%) of total votes cast for Kerry were uncounted and that 4.5m (6.8%) votes were switched to Bush. Adding the 7.1m votes to Kerry’s 59.0m recorded vote, he won a 66.1–58.4m landslide with a 336-202 electoral vote margin.  A powerful sensitivity analysis displays the effects of changes in input assumptions on Kerry’s national vote for hundreds of scenarios.

 

The Facts:

1) In 2000, 51.004 million voted for Gore, 50.459 for Bush and 3.275 for Nader and others.

2) Approximately 3.6mm of 104.7mm of 2000 voters died prior to 2004.  The annual mortality rate was 0.87%.

3) The 122.3mm recorded vote consisted of returning Gore, Bush, Nader, first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000 (DNV2k).

 

The Final NEP weightings were mathematically impossible. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.9mm) of the 2004 recorded vote; Bush only had 50.46m votes in 2000; approximately 48.7m were alive in 2004. A maximum of 49.2m Gore voters and 48.7m Bush voters could have voted in 2004.  Since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote must have been impossible as well.  The fact that Kerry’s vote shares declined by 3% from 12:22am to the Final is further confirmation that the Final NEP did not reflect the true vote; rather, it  was matched to a fraudulent, miscounted vote. Evidence of fraud abounds in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, etc.

 

Base Case Assumptions

1)  Kerry Vote Shares

12:22am NEP: Kerry won 57% of DNV2k, 91% of Gore, 10% of Bush and 71% of  Nader/Other voters.

In the Final 2pm NEP, which was matched to the recorded vote, Kerry won 54% of DNV, 90% of Gore,

9% of Bush and 71% of Nader voters.

 

2) 2000 Voter Turnout

An unknown percentage of Gore, Bush and Nader voters turned out in 2004.

For the base case, we assume 95%.

 

3) Uncounted Votes

According to the Census, 125.7 million voted in 2004, therefore 3.4mm (2.74%) of total votes cast were uncounted. The vast majority of uncounted votes were in heavily Democratic minority districts. The base case assumption is that Kerry won 75% (2.58m) of the uncounted votes.

 

Base Case True Vote (mil)

Kerry   66.10 (52.57%)

Bush    58.38 (46.43%) 

Other    1.27 (1.01%)  

 

Switched Votes

The True Vote is a simple sum of three parameters, two of which are known:

True Vote = Recorded Vote + Uncounted Votes + Switched Votes

 

Given Kerry’s recorded and uncounted votes, we can solve for votes switched to Bush:

 

Switched Votes   = True Vote - Recorded - Uncounted

       4.488           = 66.097       - 59.027     - 2.582

 

 

                                    2000 - 2004 Recorded Vote Change

                        Votes    Dem     Share   Rep     Share   Other   Share         

 

        2000 Recorded  104.73  51.004  48.70%  50.456  48.18%  3.274   3.13%         

        2004 Recorded  122.30  59.027  48.27%  62.040  50.73%  1.228   1.00%         

        2004 Change    17.561   8.023  -0.43%  11.584   2.55% -2.046  -2.12%

 

Unctd% Cast: 2.74%     3.445   2.584   75.0%   0.827   24.0%   0.034   1.0%   

____________________________________________________________               

 

 

                               Calculation of Feasible Weights

 

               2000    Vote    3.5%    Voters  Maximum  2004   Adjusted

               Vote    Share   Died    Alive   Weight  Turnout  Weight               

 

        Gore    51.004  48.70%  1.785   49.218  40.25%  95%     38.23%                

        Bush    50.456  48.18%  1.766   48.690  39.81%  95%     37.82%                

        Other    3.275   3.13%  0.115    3.160   2.58%  95%      2.46%                

        DNV     -       -       -&       24.672  17.36%  -       21.49%                

        Total   104.73  100.0%  3.666   125.74  100.0%  -       100.0%                

____________________________________________________________               

 

                               National Exit Poll (feasible weights)

                      

                         12:22am (13047)                  2:04pm (13660)

VOTED                   Base Case                      

2000    Turnout Weight  Kerry   Bush    Other   Votes   Weight  Kerry   Bush   Other

 

DNV     -       211.49%   57%     41%     2%      27.02   21.49%   54%     45%     1%

Gore    95%     38.23%   91%     8%      1%      48.07   38.23%   90%     10%     0%

Bush    95%     37.82%   10%     90%     0%      47.56   37.82%   9%      91%     0%

Other   95%     2.46%    71%     21%     8%      3.09    2.46%    71%     21%     8%

                                                                                   

TRUE           100%     52.57%   46.43%  1.01%            100%   51.16%  48.43%  0.41%

Vote           125.74   66.10    58.38   1.27           125.74   64.33   60.89   0.52

 

Kerry margin:             7.72mm                             3.44mm

____________________________________________________________               

 

 

                               National Exit Poll (original weights)

 

                     12:22am (13047)                   2:04pm (matched to vote)               

VOTED                                                               

2000    Weight  Kerry   Bush    Other   Votes          Weight  Kerry   Bush Other

 

DNV     17%     57%     41%     2%      20.79          17%     54%     45%     1%

Gore    39%     91%      8%     1%      47.70          37%     90%     10%     0%

Bush    41%     10%     90%     0%      50.14          43%      9%     91%     0%

Other   3%      71%     21%     8%       3.67           3%     71%     21%     8%

                                                                                   

Total   100%    51.41%  47.62%  0.97%   122.30         100%    48.48%  51.11% 0.41%

Vote    122.30  62.87   58.24   1.19                   122.30  59.29   62.50 0.50

 

Kerry margin:              4.63mm                         -3.22mm

____________________________________________________________               

 

                                                                                   

 

         True Vote Reconciliation: Recorded, Uncounted and Switched Votes                                                                                                                                                                                                        

         Recorded        2.74%   +Uncounted      +Switched       = True Vote  

 

        Kerry   59.027   75%     2.584   61.611   4.488   6.79%   66.097   52.57%        

        Bush    62.040   24%     0.827   62.867  -4.488  -7.69%   58.375   46.43%        

        Other    1.228    1%     0.034    1.262    0       0%     1.268    1.01%        

        Total   122.30   100%    3.445   125.74    0       0%     125.74   100%  

 

____________________________________________________________               

 

 

The following scenarios are further evidence that Kerry won, even when the base case assumptions (in parenthesis) are changed to favor Bush.

 

Scenario 1:

10% advantage in turnout of Bush 2000 voters over Gore voters.

Gore turnout:  90% (95%)

Bush turnout: 100% (95%)

Kerry wins by 3.62mm votes (51.0-48%).

 

Scenario 2:

Reduce Kerry share of DNV by 6% and Gore 2000 voter turnout by 4%.

DNV share:   51% (57%)

Gore turnout: 91% (95%)

Bush turnout: 95% (95%)

Kerry wins by 2.88mm votes (50.6%-48.4%).

 

Scenario 3:

Reduce Kerry share of Gore voters by 4% and Bush voters by 2%.

Assume: 95% turnout of Gore and Bush voters

Gore share: 87% (91%)

Bush share:  8% (10%)

Kerry wins by 1.97mm votes (50.3%-48.7%).

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________   Sensitivity Analysis    12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible adjusted weights):   How does Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout affect the national vote?   Scenario assumptions: 100% Bush  2000 voter turnout  95% Gore voter turnout    Kerry wins by 51.6 - 47.4%, a 5.32 million vote margin.               Bush             Gore Turnout                                                 Turnout 95%      96%      97%      98%      99%      100%                               Kerry Vote Share          95%      52.6%    52.7%    52.8%    53.0%    53.1%    53.2%             96%      52.4%    52.5%    52.7%    52.8%    52.9%    53.1%             97%      52.2%    52.3%    52.5%    52.6%    52.7%    52.9%             98%      52.0%    52.1%    52.3%    52.4%    52.6%    52.7%             99%      51.8%    52.0%    52.1%    52.2%    52.4%    52.5%             100%     51.6%    51.8%    51.9%    52.0%    52.2%    52.3%                                                                                                   Vote Margin                  95%      7.72     8.06     8.40     8.74     9.08     9.42              96%      7.24     7.58     7.92     8.26     8.60     8.93              97%      6.76     7.10     7.44     7.78     8.12     8.45              98%      6.28     6.62     6.96     7.30     7.63     7.97              99%      5.80     6.14     6.48     6.81     7.15     7.49              100%     5.32     5.66     5.99     6.33     6.67    7.01                                                                       ________________________________________________________                                                            12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible weights):   How does Gore voter turnout and Kerry's share of DNV2k affect the national vote?   Worst Case Scenario: Gore 2000 voter turnout: 85% (10% LOWER than Lindeman scenario) Bush 2000 voter turnout: 95% Kerry share of DNV2k:  52.9%  (Lindeman scenario)   Kerry wins by 50.2 – 48.8%, a 1.70 million vote margin.   Kerry Vote Share Sensitivity to Gore 2000 Voter turnout and share of DNV2k                                                                 Final    Nov.3    Nov.2-election day                                  13660    13047    11027    8349                           1:25pm   12:22am  7:30pm   4pm   Gore               Kerry Share of DNV2k                                   Turnout  50.0%    52.9%    54.0%    57.0%    59.0%    61.0%   97%      51.4%    52.0%    52.2%    52.8%    53.3%    53.7% 96%      51.2%    51.8%    52.1%    52.7%    53.1%    53.5% 95%      51.1%    51.7%    51.9%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4% 94%      50.9%    51.5%    51.8%    52.4%    52.9%    53.3% 88%      49.9%    50.6%    50.9%    51.6%    52.1%    52.6% 87%      49.7%    50.5%    50.7%    51.5%    52.0%    52.5% 86%      49.6%    50.3%    50.6%    51.3%    51.8%    52.3% 85%      49.4%    50.2%    50.4%    51.2%    51.7%    52.2% 84%      49.2%    50.0%    50.3%    51.1%    51.6%    52.1% 83%      49.1%    49.8%    50.1%    50.9%    51.4%    52.0%                                                                      Kerry Vote Margin                                                                               97%      4.76     6.27     6.84     8.40     9.44     10.48 96%      4.35     5.88     6.47     8.06     9.12     10.18 95%      3.94     5.50     6.10     7.72     8.80     9.88 94%      3.53     5.12     5.73     7.38     8.48     9.58 88%      1.07     2.84     3.51     5.35     6.57     7.79 87%      0.66     2.46     3.14     5.01     6.25     7.49 86%      0.25     2.08     2.77     4.67     5.93     7.19 85%      -.16     1.70     2.40     4.33     5.61     6.89 84%      -.57     1.32     2.03     3.99     5.29     6.60 83%      -.98     0.94     1.67     3.65     4.97     6.30                                                                       ________________________________________________________                                                                                           12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible weights):    How does Kerry’s share of returning Gore and Bush voters affect the national vote?   Scenario assumptions: 2000 Voter Turnout: 95% Gore; 95% Bush                                                                 Kerry won 89% of Gore voters Kerry won   9% of Bush voters    Kerry wins by 51.4 - 47.6%, a 4.85 million vote margin.                                                                                   Kerry Vote Share         Sensitivity to Kerry share of returning Gore and Bush voters                                                                                                                       Share of Gore Voters                                                  Bush     89%      90%      91%      92%      93%      94%              Voters          10%      51.8%    52.2%    52.6%    52.9%    53.3%    53.7%             9%       51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%    53.3%             8%       51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%             7%       50.7%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%               6%       50.3%    50.7%    51.1%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%             5%       49.9%    50.3%    50.7%    51.1%    51.4%    51.8%             4%       49.5%    49.9%    50.3%    50.7%    51.1%    51.4%             3%       49.2%    49.5%    49.9%    50.3%    50.7%    51.1%                                                                                                    Vote Margin                                                             10%      5.80     6.76     7.72     8.68     9.64     10.60             9%       4.85     5.81     6.77     7.73     8.69     9.65              8%       3.89     4.86     5.82     6.78     7.74     8.70              7%       2.94     3.90     4.87     5.83     6.79     7.75                6%       1.99     2.95     3.91     4.88     5.84     6.80              5%       1.04     2.00     2.96     3.93     4.89     5.85              4%       0.09     1.05     2.01     2.97     3.94     4.90              3%       -0.86    0.10     1.06     2.02     2.98     3.95       ________________________________________________________                                                                                                                                        12:22am National Exit Poll (original weights)    What are the effects of Bush and Gore voter defections on Kerry's national vote?   Scenario assumptions: Bush wins 10% of returning Gore voters Kerry wins 10% of returning Bush voters   Kerry wins by 50.6 - 48.4%, a 4.61mm vote margin.                           Kerry Vote Share           Sensitivity to Bush  and Gore Defection Rates                                              Bush Share                                                   of Gore          Kerry share of Bush voters                                         Voters   6.0%     8.0%     10.0%    12.0%    14.0%    16.0%   6%       50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.0%    53.8%    54.7% 8%       49.8%    50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.1%    53.9% 10%      49.0%    49.8%    50.6%    51.5%    52.3%    53.1% 12%      48.2%    49.0%    49.9%    50.7%    51.5%    52.3% 14%      47.4%    48.3%    49.1%    49.9%    50.7%    51.5% 16%      46.7%    47.5%    48.3%    49.1%    49.9%    50.8% 18%      45.9%    46.7%    47.5%    48.3%    49.2%    50.0%                                                                        Vote Margin                                                                                   6%       12.61    10.51    8.40     6.30     4.19     2.09 8%       10.62    8.56     6.51     4.45     2.40     0.34 10%      8.62     6.62     4.61     2.60     0.60     -1.41 12%      6.63     4.67     2.71     0.76     -1.20    -3.16 14%      4.63     2.73     0.82     -1.09    -3.00    -4.90 16%      2.64     0.78     -1.08    -2.94    -4.79    -6.65 18%      0.65     -1.16    -2.97    -4.78    -6.59    -8.40   ____________________________________________________________                                           12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible adjusted weights)   How does 2000 voter turnout affect the switched vote rate?   Scenario: Kerry wins 75% of 3.4m uncounted votes 95% Bush and Gore voter turnout   Result: 6.8% of total votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.                      Switched Vote Rate          Sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter Turnout                                                                     Gore Turnout                                Bush     91%      92%      93%      94%      95%      96% Turnout 91%      7.1%     7.4%     7.6%     7.9%     8.1%     8.3% 92%      6.8%     7.1%     7.3%     7.5%     7.8%     8.0% 93%      6.5%     6.7%     7.0%     7.2%     7.4%     7.7% 94%      6.1%     6.4%     6.6%     6.9%     7.1%     7.4% 95%      5.8%     6.1%     6.3%     6.5%     6.8%     7.0% 96%      5.5%     5.7%     6.0%     6.2%     6.5%     6.7%                                                                                 ________________________________________________________                                                                                           12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible adjusted weights)    How does 2000 voter turnout affect the vote discrepancy probability?                                                                                                      Probability of Kerry Vote Discrepancy                    Sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout                                                                                Bush         Gore Voter Turnout                                      Turnout            95%     96%     97%      98%      99%      100%        95% 5E-14    7E-15    9E-16    1E-16    0        0      96% 8E-13    1E-13    1E-14    2E-15    2E-16    0      97% 9E-12    2E-12    2E-13    3E-14    4E-15    4E-16      98% 1E-10    2E-11    3E-12    5E-13    7E-14    9E-15      99% 1E-09    2E-10    4E-11    6E-12    9E-13    1E-13     100% 9E-09    2E-09    4E-10    7E-11    1E-11    2E-12                                               ________________________________________________________                                                                            12:22am National Exit Poll (feasible adjusted weights)   How does Gore voter turnout and Kerry’s share of DNV2k affect the probability of the vote discrepancy?                     Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout                                                                                                 Probability of Kerry Vote                                               Gore         Turnout             Kerry Share of DNV2k                                           52%     53%      54%      55%      56%      57%        100% 3E-12   2E-13    1E-14    7E-16    0        0      99% 2E-11    2E-12    1E-13    6E-15    2E-16    0      98% 2E-10    1E-11    9E-13    5E-14    2E-15    1E-16      97% 1E-09    9E-11    7E-12    4E-13    2E-14    9E-16      96% 7E-09    6E-10    5E-11    3E-12    2E-13    7E-15        95% 4E-08    4E-09    3E-10    2E-11    1E-12    5E-14      94% 2E-07    2E-08    2E-09    1E-10    7E-12    4E-13      93% 9E-07    1E-07    9E-09    7E-10    5E-11    2E-12      92% 4E-06    5E-07    5E-08    4E-09    3E-10    2E-11      91% 2E-05    2E-06    2E-07    2E-08    1E-09    9E-11                                      ________________________________________________________

 

New Voters

 

Bush did worse among new voters in 2004 (41%) compared to 2000 (52%).

 

Final 2000 National Exit Poll

DNV96: Election 2000 voters who did not vote in 1996.

DNV96 comprised 13% of the total 2000 recorded vote.

DNV96 (13%) = first-time voters (9%) + others (4%).

 

Bush won total DNV96 by 52-44%.

Gore won first-time voters by 52-43%.

Bush won others by 71-26%.

 

12:22am 2004 National Exit Poll

DNV2k: Election 2004 voters who did not vote in 2000.

DNV2k comprised 17% of the total 2004 recorded vote.

DNV2k (17%) = first-time voters (11%) + others (6%).

 

Kerry won total DNV2k by 57-41%.

Kerry won first-time voters by 55-43%.

Kerry won others by 61-37%.

 

Kerry did much better with DNV2k voters in 2004 than Bush in 2000with DNV96 voters.

Bush did much better with DNV96 voters in 2000 than Bush in 2004 with DNV2k voters.

 

In 2000, Bush won 71% of DNV96 who were not first-time voters, but only 43% of first-timer, a 28% discrepancy.

In 2004, Kerry won 61% of DNV2k who were not first-time voters and 55% of first-timers, a 6% discrepancy.

 

So how did Kerry lose in 2004?

 

Final 2000 National Exit Poll

Voted in 1996

 

Vote     Mix      Gore     Bush     Buch     Nader    Total

Clint    46%      82%      15%      1%       2%       100%

Dole     31%      7%       91%      0%       1%       99%

Perot    6%       27%      64%      1%       7%       99%

Other    2%       26%      52%      1%       15%      94%

DNV96    13%      44%      52%      0%       3%       99%

DNV96:

1stTime   9%      52%      43%      1%       4%       100%

Other     4%      26%      71%      0%       3%       100%

                                                   

Total    98%      47.8%    46.8%    0.5%     2.3%     97.4%

                                                   

First-time Voter

      Mix        Gore     Bush     Buch     Nader    Total

Yes      9%       52%      43%      1%       4%       100%

No       91%      48%      48%      0%       2%       98%

Total    100%     48.4%    47.6%    0.1%     2.2%     98%

  

 

2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am)

Voted in 2000

 

         Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other

Gore     39%      91%      8%       1%

Bush     41%      10%      90%      0%

Other     3%      71%      21%      8%

DNV2k    17%      57%      41%      2% 

DNV2k:

1stTime 11%       55%      43%      2%

Other    6%       61%      37%      2%

                                  

Total    100%     51.4%    47.6%    0.97%

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Breakeven Analysis- 2000 Voter Turnout in 2004

 

Kerry won 57% of 2004 voters who did not vote in 2000.

For Bush to win a majority, Gore 2000 voter turnout had to be lower than 73%.

For Bush to win by 3m votes, Gore 2000 voter turnout had to be lower than 64%.

 

12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

Voted in 2000

 

         Weight Votes   Kerry       Bush   Other

DNV      21.49% 27.02    57%       41%      2%

Gore     38.23% 48.08    91%        8%      1%

Bush     37.83% 47.56    10%       90%      0%

Nader    2.46%   3.09    71%       21%      8%                                         

 

Total     100% 125.74   52.57%   46.43%   1.01%

Vote           125.74   66.10    58.38    1.27

 

Kerry margin: 7.72 million    

 

Kerry Share of DNV2k:

Timeline         3:39pm    7:33pm   12:22am   1:25pm

Respondents       8349     11027     13047    13660

Kerry share (%)    62        59        57       54   

 

Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout

For Bush to win:   Maximum Gore Voter Turnout   

Majority Vote      60        68        73       84

Recorded Vote      50        59        64       77

 

       

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis

Effect of 2000 Voter Turnout and New Voters (DNV2k) on Kerry’s National Share

 

Turnout                                                                                            

Bush       95%      Respondents      11027            13047                     13660             

Nader      95%      NEP Update        7:33pm           12:22am                  Final 2:04pm            

                                                                                                 

Gore       Gore                               Kerry Share DNV2k                                    

Turnout    Weight   DNV2k    60%      59%      58%      57%      56%      55%      54%      53%     52%      51%

                                                                                                 

                                             Kerry National Vote Share                              

                                                                                                 

95%        38.2%    21.5%    53.2%    53.0%    52.8%    52.6%    52.4%    52.1%    51.9%    51.7%   51.5%    51.3%

94%        37.8%    21.9%    53.1%    52.9%    52.6%    52.4%    52.2%    51.9%    51.7%    51.5%   51.3%    51.1%

93%        37.4%    22.3%    53.0%    52.7%    52.5%    52.3%    52.0%    51.7%    51.5%    51.3%   51.1%    50.8%

92%        37.0%    22.7%    52.8%    52.6%    52.4%    52.2%    51.8%    51.5%    51.3%    51.1%   50.8%    50.6%

91%        36.6%    23.1%    52.7%    52.5%    52.2%    52.0%    51.6%    51.3%    51.1%    50.9%   50.6%    50.4%

                                                                                                 

90%        36.2%    23.5%    52.6%    52.4%    52.1%    51.9%    51.4%    51.1%    50.9%    50.7%   50.4%    50.2%

89%        35.8%    23.9%    52.5%    52.2%    52.0%    51.7%    51.2%    50.9%    50.7%    50.4%   50.2%    50.0%

88%        35.4%    24.3%    52.3%    52.1%    51.9%    51.6%    51.0%    50.7%    50.5%    50.2%   50.0%    49.7%

87%        35.0%    24.7%    52.2%    52.0%    51.7%    51.5%    50.8%    50.5%    50.3%    50.0%   49.8%    49.5%

86%        34.6%    25.1%    52.1%    51.8%    51.6%    51.3%    50.6%    50.3%    50.1%    49.8%   49.6%    49.3%

                                                                                                 

85%        34.2%    25.5%    52.0%    51.7%    51.5%    51.2%    50.4%    50.1%    49.9%    49.6%   49.3%    49.1%

84%        33.8%    25.9%    51.8%    51.6%    51.3%    51.1%    50.2%    49.9%    49.6%    49.4%   49.1%    48.9%

83%        33.4%    26.3%    51.7%    51.4%    51.2%    50.9%    50.0%    49.7%    49.4%    49.2%   48.9%    48.6%

82%        33.0%    26.7%    51.6%    51.3%    51.1%    50.8%    49.8%    49.5%    49.2%    49.0%   48.7%    48.4%

81%        32.6%    27.1%    51.5%    51.2%    50.9%    50.6%    49.6%    49.3%    49.0%    48.8%   48.5%    48.2%

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                 

Gore       Gore                               Kerry Share of DNV2k                                   

Turnout    Weight   DNV2k    60%      59%      58%      57%      56%      55%      54%      53%    52%       51%

                                                                                                 

                                             Margin (millions)                                    

                                                                                                 

95%        38.2%    21.5%    9.34     8.80     8.26     7.72     7.18     6.64     6.10     5.56   5.02     4.48

94%        37.8%    21.9%    9.03     8.48     7.93     7.38     6.68     6.13     5.58     5.03   4.48     3.93

93%        37.4%    22.3%    8.71     8.15     7.59     7.03     6.18     5.62     5.06     4.50   3.94     3.38

92%        37.0%    22.7%    8.40     7.83     7.26     6.69     5.68     5.11     4.54     3.97   3.39     2.82

91%        36.6%    23.1%    8.09     7.50     6.92     6.34     5.18     4.60     4.02     3.43   2.85     2.27

                                                                                                 

90%        36.2%    23.5%    7.77     7.18     6.59     6.00     4.68     4.09     3.49     2.90   2.31     1.72

89%        35.8%    23.9%    7.46     6.86     6.26     5.65     4.18     3.57     2.97     2.37   1.77     1.17

88%        35.4%    24.3%    7.14     6.53     5.92     5.31     3.68     3.06     2.45     1.84   1.23     0.62

87%        35.0%    24.7%    6.83     6.21     5.59     4.97     3.17     2.55     1.93     1.31   0.69     0.07

86%        34.6%    25.1%    6.52     5.89     5.25     4.62     2.67     2.04     1.41     0.78   0.15    -0.48

                                                                                                 

85%        34.2%    25.5%    6.20     5.56     4.92     4.28     2.17     1.53     0.89    0.25    -0.39    -1.03

84%        33.8%    25.9%    5.89     5.24     4.59     3.93     1.67     1.02     0.37   -0.28    -0.93    -1.58

83%        33.4%    26.3%    5.58     4.91     4.25     3.59     1.17     0.51    -0.15   -0.81    -1.47    -2.14

82%        33.0%    26.7%    5.26     4.59     3.92     3.25     0.67     0.00    -0.67   -1.34    -2.02    -2.69

81%        32.6%    27.1%    4.95     4.27     3.58     2.90     0.17   -0.51   - 1.19    -1.87    -2.56    -3.24

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                 

Gore       Gore                               Kerry Share of DNV2k                                   

Turnout    Weight   DNV2k    60%      59%      58%      57%      56%      55%      54%      53%     52%      51%

                                                                                                 

                                             Probability of Majority Vote                                    

 

95%        38.2%    21.5%    100.0%   100.0%   99.9%    99.9%    99.8%    99.6%    99.2%    98.6%   97.7%    96.2%

94%        37.8%    21.9%    100.0%   100.0%   99.9%    99.8%    99.6%    99.3%    98.7%    97.7%   96.2%    94.0%

93%        37.4%    22.3%    100.0%   99.9%    99.9%    99.7%    99.3%    98.7%    97.8%    96.3%   94.1%    91.0%

92%        37.0%    22.7%    100.0%   99.9%    99.8%    99.6%    98.8%    97.9%    96.4%    94.2%   91.1%    86.8%

91%        36.6%    23.1%    99.9%    99.9%    99.7%    99.4%    98.0%    96.6%    94.4%    91.3%   87.1%    81.6%

                                                                                                 

90%        36.2%    23.5%    99.9%    99.8%    99.6%    99.1%    96.8%    94.7%    91.7%    87.5%   82.0%    75.2%

89%        35.8%    23.9%    99.8%    99.7%    99.3%    98.8%    95.1%    92.2%    88.1%    82.6%   75.8%    67.8%

88%        35.4%    24.3%    99.8%    99.5%    99.1%    98.2%    92.7%    88.8%    83.4%    76.7%   68.6%    59.6%

87%        35.0%    24.7%    99.7%    99.3%    98.7%    97.6%    89.6%    84.4%    77.8%    69.7%   60.6%    50.9%

86%        34.6%    25.1%    99.5%    99.0%    98.1%    96.7%    85.5%    79.1%    71.1%    62.0%   52.2%    42.2%

                                                                                                 

85%        34.2%    25.5%    99.3%    98.6%    97.5%    95.5%    80.5%    72.7%    63.7%    53.8%   43.6%    33.9%

84%        33.8%    25.9%    99.0%    98.1%    96.6%    94.1%    74.6%    65.6%    55.7%    45.4%   35.4%    26.3%

83%        33.4%    26.3%    98.7%    97.4%    95.4%    92.3%    67.8%    57.9%    47.4%    37.2%   27.7%    19.7%

82%        33.0%    26.7%    98.2%    96.6%    94.0%    90.1%    60.4%    49.8%    39.3%    29.5%   21.0%    14.2%

81%        32.6%    27.1%    97.5%    95.5%    92.2%    87.5%    52.6%    41.8%    31.6%    22.7%   15.4%    9.8%

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Historical Trend in First-time Voters

 

Let’s look at first-time voters in presidential elections since 1984. According to the National Exit Poll, since 1992, the Democrats won a solid majority of first-time voters. Ruy Teixeira wrote about this cumulative build-up of the Democratic base in The Emerging Democratic Majority.

 

How did Bush win by three million votes after losing the popular vote in 2000 and winning just 41% of new (DNV2k) voters in 2004?

Total	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Votes	Bush	Votes
DNV2k	17%	20.791	57%	11.85	41%	8.52
1st-time	11%	13.453	55%	7.40	43%	5.78
Other	6%	7.338	60.7%	4.45	37.3%	2.74

2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)

2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

First-time voters

……    …84 88 92 96 00   2004F 2004P
Dem    38 47 46 54 52   53    55
Rep    61 51 32 34 43   46    43

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Where did Bush find 16 million new voters from 2000?

 

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush won 41% of the DNV2k category (first-time and former voters who did not vote in 2000). But Bush needed 60% (15.78m) of DNV2k to obtain his 62.04mm recorded vote. It was quite a feat considering that his job rating was in a steady decline from 90% on Sept.11, 2001 to 48.5% on Election Day 2004.  Compare the 60% required by Bush to achieve his 41% NEP share. The 19% discrepancy is 11 times the 1.72% MoE.  There’s no need to compute the probability: It’s ZERO.

 

Given the Recorded Vote totals:

1) TV04 = 122.295m in 2004             

2) TV00 = 104.738m in 2000

3) G2k   = Gore 2000 = 51.004m       

4) B2k   = Bush 2000 = 50.459m                                                                    

5) B04   = Bush 2004 = 62.041m

 

Assumptions:

1)  X = 3.5% of 2000 voters died prior to 2004                              

2)  Y = 95% of 2000 voters living voted in 2004

3)  NEP “How Voted in 2000” vote shares

 

Determine:

Z= Bush share of new (DNV2k) voters required to reach his recorded 62.04m.        

 

Calculation:          

Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004:

BT   = 46.26m   = B2k *(1-X) * Y = 50.459 * .965 * .95

BW = Bush Weight   = BT / TV04   = 37.83%

 

Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004:

GT   = 46.76m = G2k * (1-X) * Y = 51.004 * .965 * .95

GW = Gore Weight   = GT / TV04   = 38.23%

 

Total number of DNV2k voters in 2004:

DNV2k = 26.28m = TV04 – TV00*(1-X)*Y = 122.295 – 104.738*.965* .95 = 122.295 – 96.02

 

DNV2k voters required for Bush to get his recorded 62.04m:     

Z = 15.78m = Bush 2004 vote – Bush 2000 voter turnout = 62.04 - 46.26

 

Required Bush share of DNV2k:                                    

P = 60% = Z / T = 15.78/26.28

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

Bush DNV2k Votes Required for Various 2000 Voter Turnout and Mortality Rates

 

                          2000 Voter Turnout in 2004 (Y)                                                          

Mort     100%     99%      98%      97%      96%      95%      94%      93%      92%      91%

Rate          

(X)                    Required Bush DNV2k votes in millions                                                                                 

3.50%    13.3     13.8     14.3     14.8     15.3     15.78    16.3     16.8     17.2     17.7

3.00%    13.1     13.6     14.1     14.6     15.1     15.5     16.0     16.5     17.0     17.5

2.50%    12.8     13.3     13.8     14.3     14.8     15.3     15.8     16.3     16.8     17.3

2.00%    12.6     13.1     13.6     14.1     14.6     15.1     15.6     16.1     16.5     17.0

                                                                                      

1.50%    12.3     12.8     13.3     13.8     14.3     14.8     15.3     15.8     16.3     16.8

1.00%    12.1     12.6     13.1     13.6     14.1     14.6     15.1     15.6     16.1     16.6

0.50%    11.8     12.3     12.8     13.3     13.8     14.3     14.8     15.4     15.9     16.4

0.00%    11.6     12.1     12.6     13.1     13.6     14.1     14.6     15.1     15.6     16.1

                                                                                      

                

                       Required Bush DNV2k Vote Share (P)                                                                                    

3.50%    62.9%    62.2%    61.6%    61.1%    60.5%    60.0%    59.6%    59.2%    58.8%    58.5%

3.00%    63.3%    62.6%    61.9%    61.3%    60.8%    60.3%    59.8%    59.4%    59.0%    58.6%

2.50%    63.7%    62.9%    62.2%    61.6%    61.1%    60.5%    60.1%    59.6%    59.2%    58.8%

2.00%    64.1%    63.3%    62.6%    61.9%    61.3%    60.8%    60.3%    59.8%    59.4%    59.0%

                                                                                      

1.50%    64.5%    63.7%    62.9%    62.2%    61.6%    61.0%    60.5%    60.0%    59.6%    59.2%

1.00%    65.0%    64.1%    63.3%    62.6%    61.9%    61.3%    60.8%    60.3%    59.8%    59.4%

0.50%    65.5%    64.5%    63.7%    62.9%    62.2%    61.6%    61.0%    60.5%    60.0%    59.6%

0.00%    66.0%    65.0%    64.1%    63.3%    62.5%    61.9%    61.3%    60.7%    60.2%    59.8%

 

_____________________________________________________________________

Election Fraud Analysis

 

The Bush Urban Legend

 

 Election 2004:The Urban Legend exposed the implausible result that Bush's urban share (in Democratic strongholds) would INCREASE by 9% while his small town/rural share (in Republican strongholds) would DECLINE by 3%.  The following additional analysis of the NEP Location demographic compares the preliminary 7:33pm National Exit Poll update (11027 respondents) and the 2:04pm Final NEP.  As usual, the Final NEP was forced to match the

vote count by inflating Bush urban vote shares to implausible levels (Table 1).

 

Kerry won the 7:33pm update of the Location-size category by 50.5-47.6% (Table 4).  But a prior analysis of the 12:22am “Voted 2000” demographic vote shares using feasible weights determined that he won by 52.6-46.4% (Table 7). One objective of the following analysis was to determine a likely combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories in order to match the True vote.  Sensitivity analyses tables display the effects of various urban and small town/rural vote share scenarios on Kerry’s national share.

 

Winning margins by location-size follow (with changes from the 2000 Final NEP):

 

Final 2000 NEP margin (Table 1):

Gore urban: 7.8m

Bush suburban: 0.9m

Bush small town/rural: 6.4m

 

7:33pm 2004 NEP margin (Table 4)

Kerry urban: 5.9m (-1.9m)

Kerry suburban: 0.0m (+0.9m)

Bush small town/rural: 2.3m (-4.1m)

 

Final 2004 NEP margin (Table 2):

Kerry urban: 3.5m (-4.3m)

Bush suburban: 2.8m (+1.9m)

Bush small town/rural: 3.9m (-2.5m)

 

2004 True Vote margin (Table 5):

Kerry urban: 8.2m (+0.4m)

Kerry suburban: 1.7m (+2.6m)

Bush small town/rural: 2.1m (-4.3m)

 

 2000/2004 Bush NEP vote shares

 Preliminary and Final NEP vote shares by community size

 National vote shares

 Vote changes from 2000

 Percentage vote changes from 2000

 

 

 

Table 1                                                                                                                            

2000 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

                         

                                  Vote Share                 Votes (mil.)                      

                Votes     Mix      Gore     Bush     Nader    Gore     Bush     Other    Margin

Big Cities       9.4      9%       71%      26%      3%       6.7      2.5      0.3      4.24

Small Cities     21.0     20%      57%      40%      3%       11.9     8.4      0.6      3.56

Suburbs          45.0     43%      47%      49%      4%       21.2     22.1     1.8      -0.90

Small Towns      5.2      5%       38%      59%      3%       2.0      3.1      0.2      -1.10

Rural Areas      24.1     23%      37%      59%      4%       8.9      14.2     1.0      -5.30

                                                                              

Total           104.8     100%     48.4%    47.9%    3.7%     50.7     50.2     3.8      0.50

                                                                              

Urban            30.4     29%      61%      36%      3%       18.6     10.8     0.9      7.81

Suburbs          45.0     43%      47%      49%      4%       21.2     22.1     1.8      -0.90

SmTwn/Rural      29.3     28%      37%      59%      4%       10.9     17.3     1.1      -6.40

                                                                              

Total            104.8    100%     48.4%    47.9%    3.7%     50.7     50.2     3.8      0.50

                                                                              

____________________________________________________________________

 

                                                                              

Table 2                                                                                                                            

2004 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)                                  

11/03 at 2:04pm                                                                       

  

                                Vote Share          Votes (mil.)                      

                Votes     Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Big Cities       15.9     13%      61%      39%      0%       9.7      6.2      0.0      3.5

Small Cities     22.0     18%      49%      49%      2%       10.8     10.8     0.4      0.0

Suburbs           55.0    45%      47%      52%      1%       25.9     28.6     0.6      -2.8

Small Towns      9.8      8%       48%      50%      2%       4.7      4.9      0.2      -0.2

Rural Areas      19.6     16%      40%      59%      1%       7.8      11.5     0.2      -3.7

                                                                              

Total           122.3     100%     48.1%    50.7%    1.1%     58.9     62.0     1.4      -3.2

                                                                              

Urban            37.9     31%      54%      45%      1.2%     20.5     17.0     0.4      3.5

Suburbs          55.0     45%      47%      52%      1.0%     25.9     28.6     0.6      -2.8

SmTwn/Rural      29.4     24%      43%      56%      1.3%     12.5     16.4     0.4      -3.9

                                                                              

Total           122.3     100%     48.1%    50.7%    1.1%     58.9     62.0     1.4      -3.2

                                                                              

____________________________________________________________________

 

                                                                              

Table 3                                                                                                                            

Changes in NEP from 2000 Final to 2004 Final

 

                                  Vote Share                 Votes (mil.)                      

                Votes     Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other     Margin

Big Cities       6.5      4%       -10%     13%      -3%      3.0      3.7      -0.3     -0.7>

Small Cities     1.1      -2%      -8%      9%&nbssp;      -1%      -1.2&nnbsp;    2.4      -0.2     -3.6>

Suburbs          10.0     2%       0%       3%       -3%      4.7      6.6      -1.3     -1.9>

Small Towns      4.5      3%       10%      -9%      -1%&nbbsp;     2.7      1.8      0.0      0.9

Rural Areas      -4.5     -7%      3%&nbssp;      0%       -3%      -1.1     -2.7 &    -0.8     1.6<

                                                                              

Change           17.6     0%       -5%      16%      -11%     8.2      11.8     -2.5     -3.7>

                                                                              

Urban             7.5     2%       -7%      9%       -2%      1.8      6.2      -0.5     -4.3

Suburb           10.0     2%       0%       3%       -3%      4.7      6.6      -1.3     -1.9>

SmTwn/Rural       0.0     -4%      5%&nbssp;      -3%      -2%&nbbsp;     1.6      -0.9     -0.7     2.5<

                                                                              

Change           17.6     0%       -2%      9%       -7%      8.2      11.8     -2.5     -3.7>

                                                                              

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

 

Table 4                                                                                                                            

2004 NEP (11027 respondents)                                                                                                                                   

11/02 at 7:33pm                                                                       

                                   Vote Share                Votes (mil.)                      

                 Votes    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Big Cities       15.9     13%      64%      35%      1%       10.2     5.6      0.2      4.6

Small Cities     22.0     18%      52%      46%      2%       11.4     10.1     0.4      1.3

Suburbs           55.0    45%      49%      49%      2%       27.0     27.0     1.1      0.0

Small Towns      9.8      8%       51%      47%      2%       5.0      4.6      0.2      0.4

Rural Areas      19.6     16%      42%      56%      2%       8.2      11.0     0.4      -2.7

                                                                              

Total            122.3    100%     50.5%    47.6%    1.9%     61.8     58.2     2.3      3.6

                                                                              

                Votes     Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Urban            37.9     31%      57%      41%      2%       21.6     15.7     0.6      5.9

Suburb           55.0     45%      49%      49%      2%       27.0     27.0     1.1      0.0

SmTwn/Rural      29.4     24%      45%      53%      2%       13.2     15.6     0.6      -2.3

                                                                              

Total           122.3     100%     50.5%    47.6%    1.9%     61.8     58.2     2.3      3.6

 

 

 

                  Sensitivity Analysis

 

                             Kerry Urban Share                                                 

         Sm Town   54%      55%      56%      57%      58%      59%      60%     

         Rural            Kerry National Share 

         41%      48.6%    48.9%    49.3%    49.6%    49.9%    50.2%    50.5%   

         42%      48.9%    49.2%    49.5%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.7%   

         43%      49.1%    49.4%    49.7%    50.0%    50.4%    50.7%    51.0%   

         44%      49.4%    49.7%    50.0%    50.3%    50.6%    50.9%    51.2%   

         45%      49.6%    49.9%    50.2%    50.5%    50.8%    51.1%    51.5%   

         46%      49.8%    50.1%    50.5%    50.8%    51.1%    51.4%    51.7%   

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                      

      

Table 5                                                                                                                            

2004 NEP (adjusted)                                                                                                                                     

Size of Community                                                                             

 

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)

125.74m total votes cast (Census)

 

                                   Vote Share                Votes (mil.)                      

                  Votes   Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Big Cities       16.35    13%      67%      32%      1%       10.95    5.23     0.16     5.72

Small Cities     22.63    18%      55%      44%      1%       12.45    9.96     0.23     2.49

Suburbs           56.58   45%      51%      48%      1%       28.86    27.16    0.57     1.70

Towns             10.06   8%       52%      47%      1%       5.23     4.73     0.10     0.50

Rural             20.12   16%      43%      56%      1%       8.65     11.27    0.20     -2.62

                                                                              

Total            125.74   100%     52.6%    46.4%    1%       66.14    58.34    1.26     7.80

                                                                              

Urban            38.98    31%      60%      39%      1%       23.40    15.19    0.39     8.21

Suburbs          56.58    45%      51%      48%      1%       28.86    27.16    0.57     1.70

SmTwn/Rural      30.18    24%      46%      53%      1%       13.88    16.00    0.30     -2.11

   

Total           125.74    100%     52.6%    46.4%    1.0%     66.14    58.34    1.26     7.80

   

 

                Sensitivity Analysis

 

                    Kerry share of Urban                    

     Small Town   56%      58%      60%      62%      64%

     Rural          Kerry National Share 

      48%        51.8%    52.5%    53.1%    53.7%    54.3%

      47%        51.6%    52.2%    52.8%    53.5%    54.1%

      46%        51.4%    52.0%    52.6%    53.2%    53.8%

      45%        51.1%    51.7%    52.4%    53.0%    53.6%

      44%        50.9%    51.5%    52.1%    52.7%    53.4%

   

____________________________________________________________________

 

    

Table 6                                                                                                                            

Vote Share Summary

 

         2000 Final       2004 Prelim      2004 Final       2004 True                

         Gore     Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush    

Urban     61%     36%      57%      41%      54%      45%      60%      39%     

Suburb    47%     49%      49%      49%      47%      52%      51%      48%    

Rural     37%     59%      45%      53%      43%      56%      46%      53%    

  

Total    48.4%    47.9%    50.5%    47.6%    48.1%    50.7%    52.6%    46.4%   

 

____________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

 

Table 7                                                                                                                            

12:22am NEP True Vote                                                                                                                              

Voted 2000                                                                           

                                                                              

Assumptions:                                                                          

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:

95% Turnout in 2004

0.87% annual mortality                                                                         

                

                          Vote Share                Votes (mil.)                      

         Votes    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other   

DNV      27.02    21.5%    57%      41%      2%       15.40    11.08    0.54    

Gore     48.08    38.2%    91%      8%       1%       43.75    3.85     0.48    

Bush     47.56    37.8%    10%      90%      0%       4.76     42.80    0.00    

Other    3.08     2.5%     71%      21%      8%       2.19     0.65     0.25    

                                                                              

Total    125.74   100%     52.6%    46.4%    1.01%    66.10    58.38    1.27    

   

____________________________________________________________________

   

                                                                                                        

WPE-Adjusted Location-size Vote Shares

 

This is a table of Exit Poll WPE (Within Precinct Error) by Size of Location. It was provided by pollsters Edison-Mitofsky in their Jan. 2005 report. The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in Urban and Suburban locations. Note the match between the 7:33pm NEP update and the WPE-adjusted Final. The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (see the “Bush Urban Legend”)

 

Location               WPE

Size          Weight   Mean    Median Abs     1250 precincts                                         

Big City      13%       7.9    5.9     12.1    105                                            

Small City    18%       8.5    7.7     14.3    236                                            

Suburbs       45%       8.1    7.9     14.3    487                                            

Small Town    8%        4.9    5.0     12.8    126                                            

Rural Areas   16%       3.6    3.6     13.4    296                                            

 

TOTAL                   7.17   6.68    13.75 

 

______________________________________________________________

 

 

Location-size NEP timeline

 7:33pm (11019 respondents)

 

Location       Votes   Mix     Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush    Other   Margin

Big City       15.9    13%     64%     35%     1%      10.2    5.6     0.2     4.6    

Small City     23.2    19%     52%     46%     2%      12.1    10.7    0.5     1.4    

Suburbs        53.8    44%     49%     49%     2%      26.4    26.4    1.1     0.0    

Small Town      9.8    8%      51%     47%     2%      5.0     4.6     0.2     0.4    

Rural           19.6   16%     42%     56%     2%      8.2     11.0    0.4     -2.7   

                                                                           

TOTAL          122.3   100%    50.6%   47.6%   1.9%    61.8    58.2    2.3     3.7    

 

 

2PM Final (13660 respondents)

(Forced to match the recorded vote)

 

Size           Votes   Weight Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush    Other   Margin        

Big City       15.9    13%     61%     39%      0%     9.7     6.2     0.0     3.5           

Small City     22.0    18%     49%     49%      2%     10.8    10.8    0.4     0.0           

Suburbs         55.0   45%     47%     52%      1%     25.9    28.6    0.6     -2.8      ;    

Small Town      9.8    8%      48%     50%      2%     4.7     4.9     0.2     -0.2      ;    

Rural          19.6    16%     40%     59%      1%     7.8     11.5    0.2     -3.7      ;    

                                                                                   

TOTAL          122.3 100%     48.2% 50.7%    1.1%    58.9    62.0    1.4     -3.2          

 

 

Final WPE-adjusted

 

Location       Votes   Mix     Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush    Other   Margin

Big City       15.9    13%     64.95% 35.05%   0%     10.3    5.6     0.0     4.6    

Small City     22.0    18%     53.25% 44.75%   2%     11.7    9.9     0.4     1.9    

Suburbs        55.0    45%     51.05% 47.95%   1%     28.1    26.4    0.6     1.7    

Small Town      9.8    8%      50.45% 47.55%   2%     4.9     4.7     0.2     0.3    

Rural           19.6   16%     41.80% 57.20%   1%     8.2     11.2    0.2     -3.0   

                                                                           

TOTAL        122.3     100%    51.7%   47.2%   1.1%    63.3    57.7    1.4     5.6    

 

______________________________________________________________

Location-size vote share WPE adjustments

 

Big Cities: WPE = 7.9%

Kerry = 61%

Bush  = 39%

Kerry adjusted: 64.95% = 61+.5* WPE = 61+ 3.95

Bush adjusted:  35.05% = 39-.5* WPE = 39- 3.95

 

Small Cities: WPE = 8.5%

Kerry = 49%

Bush  = 49%

Kerry adjusted: 53.25% = 49+.5* WPE = 49+ 4.25

Bush adjusted:  44.75% = 39-.5* WPE = 49- 4.25

 

Suburbs: WPE = 8.1%

Kerry = 47%

Bush  = 52%

Kerry adjusted: 51.05% = 47+.5* WPE = 47+ 4.05

Bush adjusted:  47.95% = 52-.5* WPE = 52- 4.05

  

Small Towns: WPE = 4.9%

Kerry = 48%

Bush  = 50%

Kerry adjusted: 50.45 = 48+.5* WPE = 48+ 2.45

Bush adjusted:  47.55 = 50-.5* WPE = 50- 2.45

 

Rural: WPE = 3.6%

Kerry = 40%

Bush  = 59%

Kerry adjusted: 41.8 = 40+.5* WPE = 40+ 1.8

Bush adjusted:  57.2 = 59-.5* WPE = 59- 1.8

 

_____________________________________________________________________

Exit Poll Location-size Response Optimizer

  

The True Vote: Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85% (two-party)

Total True Vote: Kerry 51.62-Bush 47.37%

 

The Location optimizer matched and confirmed the following models:

(2-party vote shares)

 

1- Precinct Response Optimizer (5 partisanship groupings)

 Kerry 52.15- Bush 47.85%

  

2- 7:33pm NEP: Location-size 

 Kerry 51.53- Bush 48.47%

 

3- Final NEP: Location-size (WPE-adjusted vote shares)

 Kerry 52.22- Bush 48.78%

 

Given:                                       

1- Recorded vote: Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%                                         

   (2-party: Bush 51.24%- Kerry 48.76%)

2- Location response rates

3- Location "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)                                            

  

Calculate:                                          

Vote share (aggregate and location)

Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast

 

                               WPE         

Location       Mix     Votes   Mean    Median Precinct Response

Big City       13%     16.35    7.9     5.9     105    0.52

Small City     18%     22.63    8.5     7.7     236    0.54

Suburbs        45%     56.58    8.1     7.9     487    0.53

Small Town      8%     10.06    4.9     5.0     126    0.57

Rural          16%     20.12    3.6     3.6     296    0.55

 

TOTAL               125.74      7.2    6.7    1250    0.54

                                             

TRUE VOTE             Kerry       Bush                              

2-party              52.15%       47.85%                             

Total                51.62%       47.37%                            

Vote                  64.91       59.57                           

 

%Deviation           -3.39%      3.39%                              

2-party              -6.50%      7.08%                              

 

Vote Deviation       -5.88      p; 2.47                       

%Deviation            9.06%     -4.15%     &nbssp;                        

                                             

PROBABILITY of 3.39% discrepancy: 1 in 65 TRILLION                  

                                             

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)                                        

Response rate: 53.98%                               

                                             

PERCENT OF REFUSERS REQUIRED TO MATCH OFFICIAL VOTE

Kerry   44.83%                                 

Bush    55.17%                               

                                             

        Rural   SmTown Suburb SmCity BigCity  

Prcts   296     126     487     236     105    

        23.7%   10.1%   39.0%   18.9%   8.4%   

 

Votes   20.1    10.1    56.6    22.6    16.4   

        16%     8%      45%     18%     13%    

 

Kerry NEP share

733pm    42%    51%     49%     52%     64%    

Final    40%    48%     47%     49%     61%    

TRUE     40%    50%     49%     59%     73%    

                                             

.......RANGE CONSTRAINTS                                            

 

KERRY WIN%                                          

Min     35%     45%     45%     45%     60%    

Max     55%     55%     55%     60%     100%   

                                             

RESPONSE                                            

Min     55%     57%     53%     54%     52%    

Max     55%     57%     53%     54%     52%    

                                             

ALPHA (K/B)                                         

Min     0.50    0.50    0.50    0.50    0.50   

Max     3.00    3.00    3.00    3.00    3.00   

                                             

WPE                                          

Min     -3.6%   -4.9%   -8.11%   -8.5%   -7.9%  

Max     -3.6%   -4.9%   -8.11%   -8.5%   -7.9%  

E-M     -3.6%   -4.9%   -8.11%   -8.5%   -7.9%  

                                             

                                             

               OPTIMIZER SUMMARY                            

                                             

........True   Count    Diff    True     Count   Diff

Kerry   52.15% 48.76%  -3.39%   64.91    60.69   -4.21

Bush    47.85% 51.24%   3.39%   59.57   63.78    4.21

Diff    4.29%  -2.48%  -6.77%   5.34    -3.09   -8.43

                                             

.....   Rural   SmTown  Suburb  SmCit   BigCit Total

Prcts   296     126     487     236     105     1250

2-pty   29.48   12.55   48.50   23.50   10.46   124.5

Pct     23.7%   10.1%   39.0%   18.9%   8.4%    100%

                                             

RESP    55.0%   57.0%   53.0%   54.0%   52.0%   53.98%

                                             

ALPHA                                        

K/B     0.792   0.800   0.840   0.835   0.800   0.820

K/50B   39.6    40.0    42.0    41.8    40.0    41.0

                                             

VOTE                                         

Kerry   12.69   6.10    21.82   11.75   8.34    60.70

Pct     43.0%   48.6%   45.0%   50.0%   79.7%   48.76%

                                             

Bush    16.79   6.45    26.67   11.75   2.12    63.78

Pct     57.0%   51.4%   55.0%   50.0%   20.3%   51.24%

                                             

RESPONDERS                                          

Kerry   13.22   6.41    23.79   12.75   8.75    64.91

Pct     44.8%   51.1%   49.1%   54.3%   83.7%   52.15%

                                             

Bush    16.26   6.14    24.71   10.75   1.71    59.57

Pct     55.2%   48.9%   51.0%   45.8%   16.3%   47.85%

                                             

REFUSERS (Required to match the recorded vote)                                         

Kerry   40.8%   45.4%   40.4%   45.0%   75.4%   44.83%

Bush    59.2%   54.6%   59.6%   55.0%   24.6%   55.17%

                                             

VOTE DEVIATION                                      

Kerry   -0.53   -0.31   -1.96   -1.000   -0.41   -4.21

Pct     -4.0%   -4.8%   -8.33%   -7.8%   -4.7%   -6.49%

                                             

WPE                                          

Calc    -3.6%   -4.9%   -8.1%   -8.55%   -7.9%   -6.77%

E-M     -3.6%   -4.9%   -8.11%   -8.5%   -7.9%   -6.77%

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Bush Approval Ratings

 

The Bush 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day is a key indicator of fraud, based on the following correlation analysis of pre-election national polls and the mysterious divergence of the National Exit Poll approval weights from the average.

 

There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush monthly approval and the national pre-election poll average.

 

Poll     Jan      Feb      Mar      April    May      June     July     Aug      Sept     Oct

Mean

Kerry    40.78    47.80    47.58    46.31    46.86    46.64    47.47    47.40    44.33    47.17

Bush     51.56    46.10    44.83    45.62    44.71    45.71    45.20    45.40    48.28    46.89

 

Approval  54.4   49.5     48.8     48.6     45.2     47.0     47.8     48.0     49.1     48.5

Poll/Appr 0.95   0.93     0.92     0.94     0.99     0.97     0.95     0.95     0.98     0.97

 

 

2004 Bush ratings

Date     Nwk      Fox      CNN      Pew      Harris   CBS      ABC      Time     NBC      AP       Zogby      Mean

 

Jan-04   50       58       60       56       na       50       58       54       54       56       49        54.5

Feb-04   48       48       51       48       51       50       50       54       na       47       na        49.7

Mar-04   48       48       49       46       na       51       50       na       50       48       na        48.8

Apr-04   49       50       52       48       48       46       51       49       na       48       47        48.8

May-04   42       48       47       44       na       41       47       46       47       48       42        45.2

 

Jun-04   na       48       49       48       50       42       47       na       45       48       46        47.0

Jul-04   48       47       47       46       na       45       50       50       48       50       49        48.0

Aug-04   45       51       51       46       48       46       50       51       47       49       44        48.0

Sep-04   48       50       52       46       45       48       50       53       47       54       47        49.1

Oct-04   46       49       46       44       na       49       53       53       49       47       49        48.5

 

 

 

National Exit Poll Approval Weightings

 

This analysis shows that the final exit polls were manipulated to match a fraudulent vote count through the use of inflated Bush approval weightings. "Voted 2000" weights have already been proven to be mathematically impossible. The "Urban Legend" myth has been exposed by the totally implausible growth of Bush urban and suburban vote shares from 2000.

 

Bush's average approval rating was 48.5% on Election Day (based on 11 national polls). But Edison-Mitofsky used 53% for the Bush approval weighting in both the Final National Exit and the Florida Exit polls.  In the 7:33pm NEP update, Bush approval was 51%. Bush vote shares were inflated in the Final – just like the “Voted 2000” and “Location-size” demographics.

 

 Adjusting Bush approval to his actual 48.5% national average resulted in the following:

 In the Florida Exit Poll, Kerry's share increased from 49.4% to 53.3%.

 In the National Exit Poll, posted at 7:33pm on Nov.2, Kerry's share increased from 51.2% to 53.2%.

 In the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, Kerry's share increased from 48.5% to 52.3%.

 

Note: Value in parenthesis refers to the number of respondents to the Bush approval question.

 

Florida Exit Poll

(2,409 respondents)    

 

Bush approval: 53%                                                        

Approval   Weight       KERRY    BUSH       Other

Strong       35.0         4        96       0

Approve     18.0         17        82       1

Disapprove   12.0        84        13       3

Strong       35.0        98        1        1

 

Total        100.0      48.8       50.3     0.9

 

Approve      53.0          9        91      0

Disapprove   47.0         95        4       1

 

Total        100.0        49.4     50.1     0.5

 

Bush approval: 48.5%                                                     

Approval   Weight        KERRY   BUSH       Other

Strong       30.5         4        96       0

Approve      18.0        17        82       1

Disapprove   14.0        84        13       3

Strong       37.5        98        1        1

 

Total        100.0        52.8     46.2     1.0

 

Approve       48.5        9        91       0

Disapprove    51.5        95       4        1

 

Total        100.0        53.3     46.2     0.5

 

 

 

National Exit Poll (7:33pm)

(5666 respondents)

 

Bush approval: 51%

Approval      Weight   KERRY       BUSH     Other

Strong         32         7        93       0

Approve        19        17        80       3

Disapprove     12        81        16       3

Strong         37        97        2        1

Total          100%     51.1%      47.6%    1.3

 

Approve        51        11        88       1               

Disapprove     49        93        5        2               

Total          100%     51.2%      47.3%    1.5%            

 

 

Bush approval: 48.5%                                                     

Approval      Weight      KERRY   BUSH     Other           

Strong        30.5%       7%      93%      0       

Approve       18          17      80       3       

Disapprove    14          81      16       3       

Strong        37.5        97       2        1               

Total         100%       52.9%   45.8%    1.3%            

 

Approve       48.5        11       88       1               

Disapprove    51.5        93       5        2               

Total          100%       53.2%    45.3%    1.5%            

 

 

 

Final National Exit Poll

(6961 respondents)

 

Bush approval: 53%

Approval       Weight   KERRY      BUSH     Other   

Strong         33%       5%        94%      1%      

Approve        20        15        83       2       

Disapprove     12        80        18       2       

Strong         35        97        2        1       

Total          100%      48.2%     50.5%    1.3%            

 

Approve        53         9        90       1       

Disapprove     47        93        6        1       

Total          100%      48.5%     50.5%    1%              

 

 

Bush approval: 48.5%

Approval      Weight   KERRY       BUSH     Other   

Strong        30.5%      5%        94%      1%      

Approve       18         15        83       2       

Disapprove    14         80        18       2       

Strong        37.5       97        2        1       

Total         100%       51.8%     46.9%    1.3%    

 

Approve       48.5        9        90       1       

Disapprove    51.5       93        6        1       

Total         100%       52.3%     46.7%    1%      

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

When Decided

 

One month prior to the 2004 election, state and national pre-election polls indicated that the race was a virtual tie. But according to the Final National Exit Poll "When Decided" category, Bush won the vote of those who decided one month prior to the election by 53-46% and was a 51.2-47.5% overall winner.  On the other hand, the 12:22am NEP showed a virtual 50-50 tie among those who decided a month before and Kerry led by 51.2-47.9%.  No surprise there. Like all demographic categories, the weights and vote shares were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

According to the Final NEP, Kerry won the 9% who decided within 3 days of the election by 53-44% ( 55-45% of the two-party vote). The 12:22am update had it at 53-40% (57-43% two-party). Pollsters Zogby and Harris estimated that Kerry won 75% of the late undecided vote. Therefore his True Vote was probably better than the 51.2% indicated by the 12:22am NEP “When Decided” cross-tabs.

 

The True Vote (Kerry 52.5-Bush 46.5%) was previously calculated based on the "Voted 2000" category using adjusted, feasible weights applied to 12:22am NEP vote shares (the Final NEP Bush/Gore 43/37% "Voted 2000" weights were mathematically impossible). The adjusted Bush/Gore weights were the ratio of a) 95% turnout of Bush and Gore 2000 voters (assuming 3.5% mortality) to b) the 2004 total votes cast. Therefore, the 12:22am NEP "When Decided" Kerry vote shares were increased (see the True Vote cross-tab).

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.  The Final Exit Poll “When Decided” weights and vote shares do not agree with historical polling statistics and the conclusions of two well-respected pollsters with a combined 70 years experience. Therefore, we must conclude that the 12:22am NEP

is close to the True Vote. The Final NEP is once again exposed for forcing a match to a fraudulent recorded vote through the use of bogus weights and vote shares.

 

This is what the Gallup poll said about undecided voters: “In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent”.

 

This is what Zogby said a few days before the election:

“The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… That traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush. The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness”.

 

Note: Final Zogby Election Day polling had Kerry winning by 50-47%, with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. It was not a good turnout; it was a great turnout. Officially, 122 million voted in 2004, compared to 105m in 2000, a net increase of 17m. But a closer analysis indicates that there must have been close to 30 million new voters. Here’s why: Approximately five million 2000 voters died prior to 2004. Assuming 95% turnout, another five million did not vote, so only 95m former 2000 voters returned to the polls in 2004. In addition, approximately three million ballots in 2004 were uncounted (a total of 125m were cast).  Preliminary National Exit Polls indicated that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters, or 6 million more than Bush. 

 

This is what Harris Interactive said about undecided voters on Election Day:  

“The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory. Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004.  The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

 

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the election, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”

  

This is what Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, said on Election Day:

 Is the presidential race still too close to call?

Yes. No matter how you look at the data, the two major-party candidates are neck and neck. Gallup's final Oct. 29-31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that if all registered voters actually turn out (which is not likely to happen, of course), John Kerry wins over George W. Bush by two points. Among likely voters, including our estimate of what the remaining undecided voters will do on Election Day, the race is dead even at 49% for each candidate.

 

Analyzing the data in other ways, such as modifying likely voter assumptions and changing turnout estimates, doesn't make a substantial difference in the election predictions. The support for both candidates is basically in the upper-40% range, and the final popular vote may well depend on which side is best able to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.

 

How does Gallup decide how to "allocate" undecided voters?

The allocation procedure is a Gallup tradition, and represents Gallup scientists' best estimate of what the final popular vote will be on Election Day.Here's how it works. The unallocated numbers in the pool of likely voters (that is, the percentages of likely voters supporting Bush and Kerry, not including undecided voters) are 49% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. We assume, based on an analysis of previous presidential and other elections, that there is a high probability that the challenger (in an incumbent race) will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote than he did in the last pre-election poll, while there is a high probability that the incumbent will maintain his share of the vote without any increase. This has been dubbed the "challenger rule." There are various explanations for why this may occur, including the theory that any voter who maintains that he or she is undecided about voting for a well-known incumbent this late in the game is probably leaning toward voting for the challenger.

 

This persistent historical pattern is the basis for Gallup's decision to allocate the 3% undecided vote to Kerry and Nader/other, making the

final estimate 49% Bush, 49% Kerry, and 2% Nader/other.

 

Certainly I believe that Florida is the place to start. With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest prize of all the states that are still considered to be in play.

Our final poll in Florida gives Kerry the edge, although not outside the margin of error.

 

How might the president's job approval rating influence the outcome of the election?

A president's job approval rating is an important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now. Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%.

 

But the last two presidents who lost (George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter) had job approval ratings much worse than George W. Bush's 48%. He is clearly not as bad off as they were. On the other hand, the winners all had job approval ratings well above 50%. Bush is in a gray zone when it comes to his job approval rating.

 

What is the impact of turnout among younger voters?

We've heard a lot about the impact of younger voters this year. The data indeed show that Kerry does better among younger voters -- that is, those under age 30. Among all national adults in that age group, Kerry wins by a 59% to 34% margin.

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

National Exit Poll

When Decided

 

Composite NEP (12:22am)

 

Decided    Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today       6%    53%   40% 7%

3 days      3%    53%   41% 6%

7 days      2%    48%   50% 2%

30 days    10%    60%   38% 2%

Over 30     79%   50%   50% 0%

     

Total       100% 51.2% 47.9% 0.8%

Votes      122.3 62.6 58.6   1.0

 

 

Final NEP

 

Decided   Weight Kerry Bush  Other

Today        5%   52%   45%   3%

3 days       4%   55%   42%   3%

7 days       2%   48%   51%   1%

30 days      0%   54%   44%   2%

Over 30     79%   46%   53%   1%

   

Total      100% 47.5% 51.2% 1.3%

Votes     122.3 58.1  62.6  1.6

 

 

True Vote

 

Decided  Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other

Today     7.54   6%    66% 33% 1%

3 days    3.77   3%    66% 33% 1%

7 days    2.51   2%    50% 49% 1%

30 days  12.57   10%   61% 38% 1%

Over 30  99.33   79%   50% 49% 1%

     

Total Share     100% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0%

Votes (census) 125.7 66.1 58.4 1.3

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

                   Voted for Kerry

Over ----------------Decided Today------------------      

30days 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0%

                Kerry national vote share

46%   48.5% 48.6% 48.7% 48.7% 48.8% 48.8% 48.9%

47%   49.3% 49.4% 49.5% 49.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.7%

48%   50.1% 50.2% 50.2% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4% 50.5%

49%   50.9% 51.0% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.2% 51.3%

 

50%   51.7% 51.8% 51.8% 51.9% 51.9% 52.0% 52.1%

51%   52.5% 52.6% 52.6% 52.7% 52.7% 52.8% 52.9%

52%   53.3% 53.3% 53.4% 53.5% 53.5% 53.6% 53.6%

53%   54.1% 54.1% 54.2% 54.3% 54.3% 54.4% 54.4%

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

National Exit Poll

Voted 2000

 

Composite NEP (12:22am)

 

     Weight Kerry Bush Other

New    11%   55%   43%   2%

Other   6%   61%   37%   2%

DNV    17%   57%   41%   2%

 

Gore   39%   91%   8%    1%

Bush   41%   10%   90%   0%

Other   3%   64%   17%   19%

     

Share 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Votes 122.3 62.6 58.1 1.6

 

Final NEP

 

     Weight Kerry Bush Other

DNV   17%   54%   45%   1%

Gore  37%   90%   10%   0%

Bush  43%   9%    91%   0%

Other 3%    71%   21%   8%

     

Share 100%  48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Votes 122.3 59.3  62.5  0.5

 

True Vote

(95% turnout)

 

New   Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other

DNV   27.02 21.49% 57%   41%    2%

Gore  48.08 38.23% 91%   8%     1%

Bush  47.56 37.83% 10%   90%    0%

Other 3.08   2.45% 64%   17%   19%

      

Share Total 100%   52.4% 46.3% 1.3%

Votes       125.7  65.9  58.3  1.6

 

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Party ID: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

 

Among the many myths surrounding the 2004 election was Karl Rove’s vaunted effort in mobilizing the Christian fundamentalist vote. The media once again succumbed to the BushCo propaganda and happily promoted the fiction to explain the Bush “mandate”.  But it’s an established fact that the Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the GOP. There were approximately 26 million new voters and Kerry won 57-61% of them. Over three million ballots (75% of them for Kerry) were never counted. And probably one million disenfranchised Democrats were disenfranchised. What the GOP calls “voter fraud” is just another scam in their arsenal of election fraud.

 

The 12:22am National Exit Poll update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents. The corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49% respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry's 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss. 

 

But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin.  It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats.

 

So why should we believe the 3% red-shift to the Republicans from the 12:22am NEP to the Final?

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. The Final Exit Poll does not pass the plausibility test. Since it was forced to match the recorded vote, we must reject the fictional narrative of a Bush victory. To believe that Bush won the election despite the following facts, one must suspend reality and

believe in Rovian faith-based mathematics.

 

1) The first-time voter trend has been heavily Democratic since 1992 (14% average margin)

2) Gore won the popular vote by more than his 540,000 official margin (5% of total votes cast were uncounted)

3) There were over 15m first-time voters and Kerry won them by 55-43%

4) Kerry’s share of Democratic voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share
5) Kerry’s share of Independent voters was 3% greater than Gore’s share

6)  Final Exit Poll weights and vote shares were forced to match the official vote.

7) The Democrats have held a steady 4-5% lead in Party ID in every election since 1992.

 

Journalist Ron Suskind relates a chilling conversation he had in 2002 with a senior aide to George W. Bush, who taunted

Suskind for being a person from “what we call the reality-based community.

 

”The Bush aide said this “reality-based community” consists of people who “believe that solutions emerge from

your judicious study of discernible reality.” Suskind nodded in agreement and muttered something favorable about

the principles of the Enlightenment, only to be cut off by the aide.

 

“That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” the Bush aide told the journalist. “We’re an empire now,

 and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will –

we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out.

We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to study what we do.”

Final National Exit Poll

Party ID  Historical Trend

                                                

                                1972       1976       1980       1984       1988       1992       1996       2000       2004       Chg                                                                                                                                                                                     

Republicans          Dem        6          9          9          7          8          10         13         8          6          (2)                                        

                     Rep        93         90         86         92         91         73         80         91         93         2                                          

                     Ind        --         --         4          --         --         17         6          1          1          0                                          

                                                                                                                                                                              

Independents         Dem        33         43         30         36         43         38         43         45         49         4                                          

                     Rep        65         54         55         63         55         32         35         47         48         1                                          

                     Ind        --         --         12         --         --         30         17         8          3          (5)                                        

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                              

Democrats            Dem        33         77         67         74         82         77         84         86         89         3                                          

                     Rep        64         22         26         25         17         10         10         11         11         0                                          

                     Ind        --         --         6          --         --         13         5          3          0          (3)                                        

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

First-time Voters

2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)
2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

 

………    84   88  92  96   00   2004P  2004F
Dem    38   47  46  54   52     55   53
Rep    61   51  32  34   43     43   46

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

    

       2004     Mix      Total       Kerry      Votes        Bush      Votes       

                                                                                 

    1st-time    11%      13.453      55%        7.40         43%       5.78        

    Other       6%       7.338       61%        4.45         37%       2.74        

    DNV2k       17%      20.791      57%        11.85        41%       8.52        

                                                                                                                                                                 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

2004 National Exit Poll

 

Party-ID Timeline

 

Updated 3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am Final            3:59pm   7:33pm   12:22am   Final

Sampled 8349     11027    13047    13660 Change    8349     11027    13047    13660 Change

                                                                                      

                 Category Weight                             Kerry Vote Share         

Dem      39      38       38       37   -1          90       90       90       89      -1

Rep      36      36       35       37   +2           7       7        7         6      -1

Ind      25      26       27       26   -1          52       52       52       49      -3

 

Share   100      100      100      100              50.62    50.24    50.69    47.89

Votes                                               61.89    61.42    61.97    58.55

 

 

Vote Share Calculation

 

          12:22am                                    Final 

         Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other

Dem      38%      91%      9%       0%               37%       89%      11%      0%

Rep      35%      7%       93%      0%               37%       6%       93%      1%

Ind      27%      52%      44%      4%               26%       49%      49%      2%

                                                                                                                           

Share    100%     51.07%   47.85%   1.08%            100%    47.89%   51.22%   0.89%

Votes    122.30   62.46    58.52    1.32             122.3   58.57    62.64    1.09

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

True Vote Estimate 

(adjusted shares)

 

                 Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other   

Dem              47.78    38.0%    91.0%    8.0%     1.0%    

Rep              44.01    35.0%    8.0%     91.0%    1.0%    

Ind              33.95    27.0%    56.0%    43.0%    1.0%    

                                                            

Share            Total    100.0%   52.5%    46.5%    1.0%    

Votes            125.74   125.74   66.01    58.47    1.26    

                                                            

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

(True Vote adjusted shares)

 

                          Kerry share of Democrats                                     

Dem ID   86.0%    87.0%    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%

                          Kerry Vote Share

35%      48.0%    48.4%    48.7%    49.1%    49.4%    49.8%    50.1%

36%      48.9%    49.2%    49.6%    50.0%    50.3%    50.7%    51.0%

37%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%

38%      50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.9%

39%      51.5%    51.9%    52.2%    52.6%    53.0%    53.4%    53.8%

40%      52.3%    52.7%    53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%

                                                            

 

 

Kerry                      Kerry share of Democrats                                   

share    88.0%    89.0%    90.0%    91.0%    92.0%    93.0%    94.0%

of Ind                     Kerry Vote Share

49%      49.5%    49.9%    50.2%    50.6%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%

50%      49.7%    50.1%    50.5%    50.9%    51.3%    51.6%    52.0%

51%      50.0%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%

52%      50.3%    50.7%    51.0%    51.4%    51.8%    52.2%    52.6%

53%      50.6%    50.9%    51.3%    51.7%    52.1%    52.5%    52.8%

54%      50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    52.0%    52.3%    52.7%    53.1%

                                                            

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Ohio Exit Poll

 

The weights changed from 38D/37R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift.

With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

 

                 12:22am (1963)                     Final (2020)                               

         Mix     Votes   Kerry   Bush                Mix   Kerry   Bush 

Dem      38%      2.14     91%      8%               35%      90%      9%

Rep      37%      2.08     6%       94%              40%      6%       94%

Ind      25%      1.41     60%      39%              25%      59%      40%

 

Total                     51.80%   47.57%                    48.65%   50.75%

                          2.919    2.681                     2.741    2.860

 

 

Florida General Exit Poll                                       

 

(2743 respondents)

         Mix      KERRY    BUSH     Other                    

Dem      38       86       13       1               

Rep      39       7        92       1       

Ind      23       60       38       2               

Total    100      49.21    49.56    1.23            

 

True Vote

(registration mix)

Dem      41.4     86       13       1                        

Rep      37.8     7        92       1                        

Ind      20.8     60       38       2                        

Total    100      50.73    48.06    1.21

 

 

The Gender Demographic

 

According to the Final National Exit Poll:

 In 2000, Gore won 55.7% of women voters, but only 44.2% of men. Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.46m.

In 2004, Kerry won 51.5% of women and 44.4% of men. Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m.

 

How come Bush sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of Republican males declined? One would normally expect to see a positive correlation in the Demographic Trend between the two groups. There was a net 2% defection of Bush 2000 voters to Kerry and returning Nader voters preferred Kerry by better than 3-1. These factors produce a Kerry 64-57m margin - assuming 122.3m recorded votes. But approximately 3.4m

ballots were uncounted and about 75% were for Kerry. Therefore his true margin was close to 9 million votes (66.6-57.9m).

 

To believe that Bush won by 62-59m, one must believe that his “mandate” was provided by women who in 2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. But according to the NEP, Kerry won New voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?

 

The 12:22am National Exit Poll gender split matched to the census and weighted state exit polls. Kerry was leading in all of them.Three voter surveys matched the gender split to within 0.5%. Yet the final recorded vote deviated from the exit polls by 2.5%.                         

       

          GENDER SPLIT                                                                                     

         Poll     Sample   Female   Male                                                                 

         Census   60000    53.51%   46.49%                                                               

         National 13047    54.00%   46.00%  

         State    72714    53.76%   46.24%                                                                                                                                                                                          

 

         STATE EXIT POLLS                                                                                 

         12:22am Composite

         (72,714 respondents)

                                                                                                        

         Gender   Weight   Votes    Kerry    Bush     Nader                                              

         Female   53.76%   65.68    52.36%   47.04%   0.61%                                              

         Male     46.24%   56.49    47.97%   51.02%   1.01%                                              

                                                                                                        

         Vote share        -       50.33%   48.88%   0.79%                                              

         Votes            122.17   61.49    59.72    0.97                                               

                                                                                                        

        

         NATIONAL EXIT POLL                                                                                        

         Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents                                                                                

                                                                                                        

                 Weight   Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other                                              

         Female   54.00%   65.97    54.00%   45.00%   1.00%                                              

         Male     46.00%   56.20    47.00%   52.00%   1.00%                                              

                                                                                                        

         Vote share        -       500.78%   48.22%   1.00%                                              

         Votes            122.17   62.04    58.91    1.22                                               

                                                                                                        

        

         NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE                                                                                       

                 Sample    Weight       .......Kerry........

         Update   Size     Female   Male     Female   Male     Total                                      

         3:39pm   8349     58%      42%      53%      47%      50.48                                      

         7:33pm   11027    54%      46%      54%      47%      50.78                                      

         12:22am  13047    54%      46%      54%      47%      50.78                                      

         1:25pm   13660    54%      46%      51%      44%      47.78                                      

                                                                                                        

              

          STATE GENDER VOTE

         Total    Gender split       Vote split      -------------------- Kerry ----------------------

         Vote     Female   Male     Female   Male     Female   Male     Female   Male     Total    Pct

         122.17   53.76%   46.24%   65.683   56.488   52.36%   47.97%   34.391   27.098   61.489   50.33%

 

AL       1.883    54.92%   45.08%   1.034    0.849    46.0%    35.0%    0.476    0.297    0.773    41.04%                                       

AK       0.312    52.48%   47.52%   0.164    0.148    45.0%    32.5%    0.074    0.048    0.122    39.06%    

AZ       2.013    53.47%   46.53%   1.076    0.936    50.0%    43.5%    0.538    0.407    0.945    46.98%  

AR       1.056    57.00%   43.00%   0.602    0.454    50.5%    41.0%    0.304    0.186    0.490    46.42%  

CA       12.392   53.44%   46.56%   6.622    5.770    58.5%    52.5%    3.874    3.029    6.903    55.71%

 

 

CO       2.128    53.94%   46.06%   1.148    0.980    50.5%    47.0%    0.580    0.461    1.040    48.89%  

CT       1.579    53.47%   46.53%   0.844    0.735    59.5%    55.5%    0.502    0.408    0.910    57.64%  

DE       0.227    56.44%   43.56%   0.128    0.099    62.5%    51.5%    0.080    0.051    0.131    57.71%    

DC       0.375    57.43%   42.57%   0.215    0.160    91.5%    87.5%    0.197    0.140    0.337    89.80%  

FL       7.604    54.00%   46.00%   4.106    3.498    52.0%    47.0%    2.135    1.644    3.779    49.70%  

                                                                                                                                                              

GA       3.299    56.44%   43.56%   1.862    1.437    46.0%    39.5%    0.856    0.568    1.424    43.17%  

HI       0.429    54.00%   46.00%   0.232    0.197    57.0%    49.0%    0.132    0.097    0.229    53.32%  

ID       0.598    55.90%   44.10%   0.334    0.264    36.5%    30.0%    0.122    0.079    0.201    33.63%

IL       5.275    54.46%   45.54%   2.873    2.402    58.5%    55.5%    1.681    1.333    3.014    57.13%

IN       2.468    52.48%   47.52%   1.295    1.173    42.5%    39.5%    0.550    0.463    1.014    41.07%

                                                                                                                                                              

IA       1.505    54.46%   45.54%   0.820    0.685    52.0%    47.5%    0.426    0.326    0.752    49.95%  

KS       1.188    55.45%   44.55%   0.659    0.529    35.0%    33.5%    0.231    0.177    0.408    34.33%

KY       1.796    54.46%   45.54%   0.978    0.818    42.5%    38.5%    0.416    0.315    0.731    40.68%

LA       1.939    55.45%   44.55%   1.075    0.864    47.5%    40.5%    0.511    0.350    0.860    44.38%

ME       0.741    53.47%   46.53%   0.396    0.345    58.0%    49.5%    0.230    0.171    0.400    54.04%

                                                                              

MD       2.384    54.46%   45.54%   1.298    1.086    58.5%    54.5%    0.760    0.592    1.351    56.68%  

MA       2.905    53.44%   46.56%   1.553    1.353    69.5%    62.5%    1.079    0.845    1.925    66.24%  

MI       4.838    51.00%   49.00%   2.467    2.371    54.0%    50.0%    1.332    1.185    2.518    52.04%  

MN       2.823    52.48%   47.52%   1.481    1.341    54.5%    53.5%    0.807    0.718    1.525    54.02%

MS       1.138    53.00%   47.00%   0.603    0.535    43.0%    43.0%    0.259    0.230    0.489    43.00%

 

MO       2.731    53.47%   46.53%   1.460    1.271    47.5%    47.5%    0.694    0.604    1.297    47.50%

MT       0.450    50.02%   49.98%   0.225    0.225    37.5%    39.0%    0.084    0.088    0.172    38.25%

NE       0.777    52.00%   48.00%   0.404    0.373    36.0%    36.0%    0.145    0.134    0.280    36.00%

NV       0.826    52.48%   47.52%   0.433    0.392    53.5%    45.5%    0.232    0.179    0.410    49.70%

NH       0.676    49.51%   50.49%   0.335    0.341    57.5%    52.5%    0.193    0.179    0.372    54.98%

 

NJ       3.610    53.37%   46.63%   1.927    1.683    56.0%    51.0%    1.079    0.858    1.937    53.67%

NM       0.756    54.46%   45.54%   0.412    0.344    51.5%    49.5%    0.212    0.170    0.383    50.59%

NY       7.389    53.00%   47.00%   3.916    3.473    67.0%    60.0%    2.624    2.084    4.707    63.71%

NC       3.501    53.00%   47.00%   1.855    1.645    51.0%    45.0%    0.946    0.740    1.687    48.18%

ND       0.313    51.49%   48.51%   0.161    0.152    36.5%    29.5%    0.059    0.045    0.104    33.10%

 

OH       5.625    53.00%   47.00%   2.981    2.644    53.0%    51.0%    1.580    1.348    2.929    52.06%

OK       1.464    52.48%   47.52%   0.768    0.696    36.0%    33.5%    0.277    0.233    0.510    34.81%

OR       1.828    56.35%   43.65%   1.030    0.798    57.5%    43.5%    0.592    0.347    0.939    51.39%

PA       5.766    53.00%   47.00%   3.056    2.710    56.5%    52.0%    1.727    1.409    3.136    54.39%

RI       0.436    53.47%   46.53%   0.233    0.203    65.0%    60.5%    0.152    0.123    0.274    62.91%

 

SC       1.616    57.43%   42.57%   0.928    0.688    49.0%    40.5%    0.455    0.279    0.733    45.38%

SD       0.388    49.51%   50.49%   0.192    0.196    38.0%    35.5%    0.073    0.070    0.143    36.74%

TN       2.437    52.48%   47.52%   1.279    1.158    42.0%    39.5%    0.537    0.457    0.995    40.81%

TX       7.410    54.92%   45.08%   4.070    3.341    34.5%    40.0%    1.404    1.336    2.740    36.98%

UT       0.927    54.92%   45.08%   0.509    0.418    30.0%    29.0%    0.153    0.121    0.274    29.55%

 

VT       0.311    55.00%   45.00%   0.171    0.140    65.5%    62.0%    0.112    0.087    0.199    63.93%

VA       3.193    53.00%   47.00%   1.692    1.501    52.0%    44.0%    0.880    0.660    1.540    48.24%

WA       2.857    57.86%   42.14%   1.653    1.204    58.0%    50.0%    0.959    0.602    1.561    54.63%

WV       0.756    53.47%   46.53%   0.404    0.352    45.0%    44.5%    0.182    0.157    0.338    44.77%

WI       2.993    53.47%   46.53%   1.600    1.393    53.0%    45.5%    0.848    0.634    1.482    49.51%

WY       0.243    50.02%   49.98%   0.122    0.121    34.5%    29.0%    0.042    0.035    0.077    31.75%

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Analysis of National Exit Poll Demographic Changes in Gender

(2000 to 2004)

 

Consider these changes in Bush’s 2-party vote shares:

- Gender: females increased by 4.2%; males decreased by 0.2%

- Whites: females increased by 5.0%; males decreased by 0.9%

- Non-whites: females increased by 4.0%; males increased by 0.76%

- Independents: females increased by 1.8%; males decreased by 5.6%

 

Why would females defect to Kerry and males defect to Bush? Females voted 54-45% for Kerry. Why would heavily

Democratic non-white females defect to Bush? Why would independent males defect to Kerry at triple the rate

independent females defected to Bush? Independents split 52-44 for Kerry and he won Nader 2000 voters by better than 3-1.

 

                     NEP                         2-party

                 2000     2004     Chg      2000     2004     Chg

GENDER

Male                                                        

         Dem      42       44       2        44.21    44.44    0.23

         Rep      53       55       2        55.79    55.56   

         Ind      5        1        (4)                      

Female                                                      

         Dem      54       51       (3)      55.67    51.52    (4.15)

         Rep      43       48       5        44.33    48.48   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

                                                            

         Dem      48.48    47.78    (0.70)   50.46   48.26    (2.20)

         Rep      47.60    51.22    3.62     49.54    51.74   

         Ind      3.92     1        (2.92)                   

                                                            

                                                   

                    NEP                     2-party

                 2000     2004     Chg      2000     2004     Chg

RACE/GENDER                                                          

                                                            

White Male                                                           

         Dem      36       38       2        37.50    38.38    0.88

         Rep      60       61       1        62.50    61.62   

         Ind      4        1        (3)                      

White Female                                                         

         Dem      48       44       (4)      49.48    44.44    (5.04)

         Rep      49       55       6        50.52    55.56   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Non-white Male                                                       

         Dem      85       86       1        87.63    86.87    (0.76)

         Rep      12       13       1        12.37    13.13   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Non-white Female                                                     

         Dem      94       90       (4)      94.00    90.00    (4.0)

         Rep      6        10       4        6.00     10.00   

         Ind      0        0                                 

                                                            

                                                            

                    NEP                     2-party

                 2000     2004     Chg      2000     2004     Chg

AGE/GENDER                                                           

                                                            

Men 18-29                                                            

         Dem      41       51       10       44.57    52.04    7.47

         Rep      51       47       (4)      55.43    47.96   

         Ind      8        2        (6)                      

Fem 18-29                                                            

         Dem      53       56       3        55.79    56.57    0.78

         Rep      42       43       1        44.21    43.43   

         Ind      5        1                                 

Men 30-44                                                            

         Dem      42       42       0        43.75    42.86    (0.89)

         Rep      54       56       2        56.25    57.14   

         Ind      4        2        (2)                      

Fem 30-44                                                            

         Dem      53       49       (4)      54.08    49.49    (4.59)

         Rep      45       50       5        45.92    50.51   

         Ind      2        1        (1)                      

Men 45-59                                                            

         Dem      41       45       4        42.71    45.45    2.74

         Rep      55       54       (1)      57.29    54.55   

         Ind      4        1        (3)                      

Fem 45-59                                                            

         Dem      53       50       (3)      54.64    50.51    (4.13)

         Rep      44       49       5        45.36    49.49   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Men 60+                                                     

         Dem      44       39       (5)      45.36    39.39    (5.97)

         Rep      53       60       7        54.64    60.61   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Fem 60+                                                     

         Dem      56       51       (5)      57.14    51.00    (6.14)

         Rep      42       49       7        42.86    49.00   

                                                            

                                                            

                    NEP                     2-party

                 2000     2004     Chg      2000     2004     Chg

                                                            

POLITICS/GENDER                                                      

                                                            

Repub Men                                                            

         Dem      7        6        (1)      7.07     6.06     (1.01)

         Rep      92       93       1        92.93    93.94   

         Ind      1        1        0       

Repub Women                                                          

         Dem      9        7        (2)      9.09     7.00     (2.09)

         Rep      90       93       3        90.91    93.00   

         Ind      1        0        (1)                      

Indep Men                                                            

         Dem      39       47       8        43.33    48.96    5.63

         Rep      51       49       (2)      56.67    51.04   

         Ind      10       4        (6)                      

Indep Women                                                          

         Dem      51       52       1        54.84    53.06    (1.78)

         Rep      42       46       4        45.16    46.94   

         Ind      7        2        (5)                      

Dem Men                                                     

         Dem      85       88       3        87.63    88.89    1.26

         Rep      12       11       (1)      12.37    11.11   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Dem Women                                                            

         Dem      87       89       2        88.78    89.90    1.12

         Rep      11       10       (1)      11.22    10.10   

         Ind      2        1        (1)                      

                                                            

                    NEP                     2-party

                 2000     2004     Chg      2000     2004     Chg

                                                            

EDUCATION/GENDER                                                     

                                                            

Men-no college                                                       

         Dem      46       44       (2)      46.94    44.44    (2.50)

         Rep      52       55       3        53.06    55.56   

         Ind      2        1        (1)                      

Women-no college                                                     

         Dem      53       50       (3)      54.64    50.51    (4.13)

         Rep      44       49       5        45.36    49.49   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

Men-some college                                                     

         Dem      40       42       2        41.67    42.42    0.75

         Rep      56       57       1        58.33    57.58   

         Ind      4        1        (3)                      

Women-some college                                                            

         Dem      50       49       (1)      51.02    49.00    (2.02)

         Rep      48       51       3        48.98    51.00   

         Ind      2        0        (2)                      

Men-college grad                                                     

         Dem      39       44       5        40.63    44.90    4.37

         Rep      57       54       (3)      59.38    55.10   

         Ind      4        2        (2)                      

Women-college grad                                                            

         Dem      57       54       (3)      58.76    54.55    (4.21)

         Rep      40       45       5        41.24    45.45   

         Ind      3        1        (2)                      

 

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 Did Kerry Win More Than 360 Electoral Votes?

 

In 2004 Bush officially won by 286-251 electoral votes. But who really believes it?  This analysis shows that Kerry may very well have won over 360 Electoral votes. The sensitivity analysis tables display Kerry's popular and electoral vote over a range of assumptions.

 

 

Key Results

 

Popular vote:

Kerry   Bush

67.3m    57.5m

53.5%   45.7%

 

Electoral vote: Kerry 367, Bush 171

 

Kerry won the following 11 states which were recorded for Bush: AZ, AR, CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NM, OH, TN, WV

 

 

Base Case Assumptions

 

1- 110.8m Census 2000 votes cast (105.4m recorded)

2- 125.7m Census 2004 votes cast (122.3m recorded)

3- Uncounted votes: Gore 70%; Bush 25%

4- 2000 voter mortality prior to 2004: 5% Gore; 4.8% Bush

5- 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95% for Gore, Bush, Nader

6- Kerry won 71% of Nader 2000 voters (12:22am NEP)

7- Kerry won 57% of DNV2k (did not vote in 2000)

8- Kerry won 10% of Bush 2000 voters; Bush won 8% of Gore voters

9- Mortality and uncounted vote rates constant in all states

 

 

State Recorded Vote Adjustments

(in thousands of votes)

 

         2000 Recorded Vote                 Uncounted                 4 year Mortality          Turnout in 2004    

         48.7%    48.2%    3.1%             70%      25%               5.0%     4.8%             95%         95%

         Gore     Bush     Nader            Gore     Bush              Gore     Bush             Gore    Bush

State    51,004   50,459   3,275            3,745    1,338             2,737    2,486            49,411   46,845

                                                                                                        

AL       692      941      25               59       21                38       48               678         868

AK       79       167      33               10       4                 4        9                80         154

AZ       685      781      56               54       19                37       40               667         722

AR       422      472      23               33       12                23       24               410         437

CA       5,861    4,567    459              389      139               313      235              5,641    4,247

                                                                                                        

CO       738      883      101              62       22                40       45               722         817

CT       816      561      68               52       18                43       29                783         523

DE       180      137      9                12       4                 10       7                173         127

DC       171      18       11               7        3                 9        1                161      19

FL       2,912    2,912    115              212      76                156      149              2,820    2,697

                                                                                                        

GA       1,116    1,419    11               91       33                60       73               1,089    1,310

HI       205      137      23               13       5                 11       7                197         128

ID       138      336      8                17       6                 8        17               140         309

IL       2,589    2,019    120              169      60                138      104              2,489    1,877

IN       901      1,245    17               77       28                49       64               883      1,149

                                                                                                        

IA       638      634      37               47       17                34       33               618         587

KS       399      622      43               38       14                22       32               394         574

KY       638      872      27               55       20                35       45               625         805

LA       792      927      36               63       22                43       47               771         857

ME       319      286      41               23       8                 17       15               309         266

                                                                                                        

MD       1,144    813      58               72       26                61       42               1,097    757

MA       1,616    878      185              96       34                86       46               1,545    823

MI       2,170    1,953    84               150      54                116      100              2,094    1,811

MN       1,168    1,109    159              87       31                63       57               1,133    1,029

MS       404      572      10               35       13                22       29               396         528

                                                                                                        

MO       1,111    1,189    49               84       30                60       61               1,078     1,100

MT       137      240      30               15       5                 8        12               137         221

NE       231      433      28               25       9                 13       22               231         399

NV       279      301      20               21       8                 15       15               271         279

NH       266      273      25               20       7                 14       14               258         253

                                                                                                        

NJ       1,788    1,284    101              113      41                95       66               1,716    1,195

NM       287      286      22               21       8                 15       15               278         265

NY       4,112    2,405    278              243      87                218      125              3,930    2,249

NC       1,257    1,631    9                104      37                68       83               1,228    1,505

ND       95       174      17               10       4                 5        9                95         160

                                                                                                        

OH       2,186    2,351    144              167      60                118      121               2,124    2,176

OK       474      744      9                44       16                26       38               467         686

OR       720      713      17               52       19                39       37               697         660

PA       2,485    2,281    120              175      62                133      117              2,400    2,115

RI       249      130      27               15       5                 13       7                238         122

                                                                                                        

SC       566      786      24               49       18                31       40               555         725

SD       118      190      3                11       4                 6        10               117         175

TN       981      1,061    24               74       26                53       54               952         981

TX       2,433    3,799    150              228      82                133      194              2,402    3,502

UT       203      515      45               27       10                12       26               208         474

                                                                                                        

VT       149      119      23               10       4                 8        6                144         111

VA       1,217    1,437    65               97       35                66       74               1,186    1,328

WA       1,247    1,108    108              88       31                67       57               1,205    1,028

WV       295      336      14               23       8                 16       17               287         311

WI       1,242    1,237    105              92       33                67       63               1,204    1,146

WY       60       147      3                8        3                 3        7                61         135

 

         Nader Allocation   Defection         New Voters                Adjusted True Vote                 Electoral

         71%      21%      8%       10%      57%      41%                                                  Vote

         Kerry    Bush     Gore     Bush     Kerry    Bush              Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush    Kerry

State    2,301    681      3,953    4,684    14,883   10,705            67,327   57,499   53.54%   45.73%   367

                                                                                                        

AL       18       5        54       87       157      197               885      1,038    45.7%    53.6%   

AK       23       7        6        15       20       33                133      185      41.5%    57.7%   

AZ       40       12       53       72       321      297               1,047    1,012    50.4%    48.7%    10

AR       16       5        33       44       107      98                544      529      50.4%    49.0%    6

CA       326      96       451      425      1,628    712               7,568    5,082    59.4%    39.9%    55

                                                                                                        

CO       72       21       58       82       276      261               1,093    1,075    50.0%    49.2%    9

CT       48       14       63       52       187      57                1,008    604      62.1%    37.2%    7

DE       6        2        14       13       52       22                230      153      59.7%    39.6%    3

DC       8        2        6        1        245      10                408      36       91.5%    8.2%     3

FL       82       24       226      270      1,201    931               4,146    3,608    53.1%    46.2%    27

                                                                                                        

GA       8        2        87       131      440      515               1,581    1,784    46.6%    52.6%   

HI       16       5        16       13       73       19                283      155      64.2%    35.1%    4

ID       6        2        11       31       45       109               210      400      34.2%    65.1%   

IL       85       25       199      188      626      287               3,189    2,200    58.8%    40.6%    21

IN       12       4        71       115      206      268               1,145    1,376    45.1%    54.3%   

                                                                                                        

IA       26       8        49       59       170      128               824      713      53.2%    46.1%    7

KS       31       9        32       57       85       120               536      677      43.9%    55.5%   

KY       19       6        50       80       168      211               843      991      45.7%    53.7%   

LA       26       8        62       86       160      160               981      1,000    49.2%    50.2%   

ME       29       9        25       27       92       52                431      324      56.7%    42.6%    4

                                                                                                        

MD       41       12       88       76       388      138               1,514    919      61.8%    37.5%    10

MA       131      39       124      82       396      31                2,031    935      68.0%    31.3%    12

MI       60       18       168      181      585      372               2,753    2,188    55.4%    44.0%    17

MN       113      33       91       103      350      221               1,608    1,271    55.4%    43.8%    9

MS       7        2        32       53       98       131               523      640      44.7%    54.7%   

                                                                                                        

MO       35       10       86       110      303      262               1,440    1,349    51.3%    48.1%    11

MT       21       6        11       22       30       44                199      261      43.0%    56.3%   

NE       20       6        18       40       50       88                322      471      40.3%    59.0%   

NV       14       4        22       28       147      126               439      402      51.7%    47.4%    5

NH       18       5        21       25       88       67                369      321      53.1%    46.2%    4

                                                                                                        

NJ       72       21       137      120      500      181               2,270    1,416    61.2%    38.2%    15

NM       16       5        22       27       119      88                417      354      53.6%    45.5%    5

NY       197      58       314      225      959      153               4,997    2,550    65.8%    33.6%    31

NC       6        2        98       151      377      456               1,663    1,911    46.2%    53.1%   

ND       12       4        8        16       18       30                134      185      41.6%    57.7%   

                                                                                                        

OH       102      30       170      218      705      603               2,979    2,761    51.5%    47.7%    20

OK       6        2        37       69       131      202               636      858      42.3%    57.0%   

OR       12       4        56       66       277      215               996      869      53.0%    46.2%    7

PA       85       25       192      211      762      498               3,267    2,619    55.1%    44.2%    21

RI       19       6        19       12       58       3                 308      137      68.7%    30.7%    4

                                                                                                        

SC       17       5        44       73       152      195               752      897      45.3%    54.0%   

SD       2        1        9        18       39       62                166      230      41.7%    57.6%   

TN       17       5        76       98       280      253               1,271    1,217    50.8%    48.6%    11

TX       107      32       192      350      616      908               3,282    4,283    43.1%    56.2%   

UT       32       9        17       47       68       154               338      606      35.5%    63.7%   

                                                                                                        

VT       16       5        12       11       29       12                189      128      59.2%    40.1%    3

VA       46       14       95       133      342      344               1,612    1,648    49.1%    50.2%   

WA       77       23       96       103      368      215               1,656    1,260    56.4%    42.9%    11

WV       10       3        23       31       82       79                387      384      49.9%    49.5%    5

WI       75       22       96       115      351      257               1,648    1,407    53.6%    45.7%    10

WY       2        1        5        14       14       35                86       162      34.4%    64.9%   

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

Given: Kerry won 57% of New Voters

 

Worst case scenario:

Gore won 65% of the uncounted votes in 2000

Kerry won 50% of Nader voters

Kerry wins 52.8% of the popular vote and 337 electoral votes

 

Best case scenario:

Gore won 80% of uncounted votes in 2000

Kerry won 80% of Nader voters

Kerry wins 54.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

 

Gore            

Unctd        Kerry % of Nader voters           

Share    50%      60%      71%      80%

                  Kerry Vote Share

80%      53.3%    53.6%    53.9%    54.1%

75%      53.2%    53.4%    53.7%    53.9%

70%      53.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.8%

65%      52.8%    53.1%    53.4%    53.6%

                                  

                 Kerry Electoral Vote              

80%      358      367      367      389

75%      353      358      367      367

70%      343      353      367      367

65%      337      353      362      367

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II

Given: Kerry won 71% of Nader Voters

 

Worst case scenario:

Gore won 65% of uncounted votes

Kerry won 52% of new voters (DNV2k)

Kerry wins 52.3% of the popular vote and 326 electoral votes

 

Best case scenario:

Gore won 80% of uncounted votes

Kerry won 61% of new voters

Kerry wins 54.7% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

                                     

Gore            

Unctd        Kerry % of New Voters             

Share    52%      54%      57%      59%      61%

                 Kerry Vote Share

80%      52.8%    53.2%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%

75%      52.7%    53.1%    53.7%    54.1%    54.5%

70%      52.5%    52.9%    53.5%    54.0%    54.4%

65%      52.3%    52.8%    53.4%    53.8%    54.2%

 

                 Kerry Electoral Vote              

80%      343      367      367      389      389

75%      343      353      367      389      389

70%      337      353      367      367      389

65%      326      337      362      367      367

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis III

 

Worst case scenario:

Gore voter defection: 10%

Bush voter defection:  8%

Kerry wins 52.0% of the popular vote and 290 electoral votes

 

Best case scenario:

Gore voter defection: 6%

Bush voter defection: 12%

Kerry wins 55.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

                                     

 

Bush               Gore Defection

Defect       10%    9%       8%       7%       6%

                 Kerry Vote Share

12%      53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%    55.1%

11%      53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%    54.7%

10%      52.8%    53.1%    53.5%    53.9%    54.3%

9%       52.4%    52.8%    53.2%    53.6%    54.0%

8%       52.0%    52.4%    52.8%    53.2%    53.6%

 

                 Kerry Electoral Vote

12%      367      389      389      389      389

11%      353      367      389      389      389

10%      326      353      367      389      389

9%       315      326      353      367      367

8%       290      315      326      353      367

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Uncounted and Switched Votes

 

According to the U.S. Census, 125.7 million votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m. The published Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. Therefore, there is a 95% probability that 125.3-126.1m votes were cast. According to data provided by investigative reporter Greg Palast, 3.006m of 125.3m votes cast were never counted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots. There is just a 400,000 discrepancy between the Census and Palast - a 0.31% deviation.

 

Given the Kerry true vote of 66.1 million (based on the 12:22am NEP with feasible weights) and his recorded vote (59.0m) we can calculate the number of votes which were switched from Kerry to Bush.  If we assume that Kerry won 75% (2.6 of 3.4mm) of the uncounted votes based on the Census total of 125.7mm, then 4.5m (6.8%)  Kerry votes must have been switched.  Furthermore, if we assume that 6.8% of the votes were switched uniformly in each state and allocate the uncounted votes to each state based on population and racial mix, the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won 336 electoral votes (Sensitivity Analysis I). This result matched the pre-election Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation base case forecast that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (the average of 5000 election trials). The assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.

 

12:22am National Exit Poll

 

Voted in 2000

 

        Weight   Votes   Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV      21.49%   27.02   57%      41%      2%      

Gore     38.23%   48.08   91%      8%       1%      

Bush     37.83%   47.56   10%      90%      0%      

Nader    2.46%    3.09    71%      21%      8%                                                 

 

Total    100%            52.57%   46.43%   1.00%

Votes    125.74          66.10    58.38    1.26    

 

Given:

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

122.295m votes recorded

3.445m votes uncounted

 

Assume:

2.584m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry

95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

 

Calculate:

The number of votes cast for Kerry switched to Bush.

 

Solution:

True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)   

S = T - R - U = 66.097 - 59.027 - 2.582 = 4.488m           

 

Switched vote rate:

SVR = S / T = 4.488 / 66.097 = 6.79%

 

 

True Vote Reconciliation                                                                                                             

 

      Recorded   Share    Uncounted          Switched           True Vote       

 

Kerry    59.027   75%      2.584    61.611   4.488    6.79%    66.097   52.57%          

Bush     62.040   24%      0.827    62.867  -4.488   -7.69%    58.375   46.43%          

Other     1.228    1%      0.034     1.262   0.000    0.00%     1.262    1.01%          

 

Total    122.30   100%     3.445    125.74   0.000    0.00%    125.74   100.0%  

 

  

VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS

(Votes in thousands)

 

UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE

Kerry   75%:  2,582

Bush    24%:    826

Other    1%:     34

 

Total 100%:  3,443 (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)       

 

SWITCHED VOTES

4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were switched to Bush

 

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION

TrueVote 66,097 100.0%  

Unctd    -2,582 3.91%

Net      63,515 96.09%

Switch   -4,488 6.79%

Recorded 59,027 89.30%

 

 

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE

 

          True Vote        Electoral Vote

         Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush                                       

Actual   59027   62040     252      286                                        

Change   7070    -3662      97      -97                                        

TRUE     66097    58378    336      202                               

VOTE     52.57%   46.43%                                             

 

 

BASE CASE SUMMARY

 

Switched votes: 6.8%

 

       Share     RECORDED           UNCOUNTED                         SWITCHED   TRUE VOTE

Kerry    75%      59027    48.27%   2582     61609    49.0%    2.11%     4488    66097    52.57%

Bush     24%      62040    50.73%    826     62866    50.0%    0.68%    -4488    58378    46.43%

Other     1%       1228     1.00%     34      1262     1.0%    0.03%        0     1262     1.00%

Total    2.74%    122295   100%     3442     125737   100%     2.81%        0    125737   100%

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I

Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)

(Kerry 75% share of uncounted votes)

 

         Vote Share           Vote Count     Kerry   Electoral Vote  

           Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Margin   Kerry    Bush    States which

Recorded   48.27%   50.73%   59027    62040    -3013    252      286     flipped to Bush

 

SVR       

6.8%       52.57%   46.43%   66097    58383    7714     336      202      CO FL IA MO NV NM OH     

6.5%       52.42%   46.58%   65906    58570    7336     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

6.0%       52.15%   46.84%   65575    58901    6675     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

5.0%       51.63%   47.37%   64914    59562    5353     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

 

4.0%       51.10%   47.90%   64253    60223    4031     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

3.0%       50.58%   48.42%   63592    60883    2709     289      249      IA NV NM

2.0%       50.05%   48.95%   62931    61544    1387     289      249      IA NV NM

1.0%       49.52%   49.47%   62270    62205    65       264      274      IA NM   

0.0%       49.00%   50.00%   61609    62866    -1257    264  &    274      IA NM   

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:

Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote

  

                   Kerry Electoral Vote                               

 

                   Uncounted Vote Share                                

          50%      55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR

6.8%       325      325      325      325      325      336      336

6.5%       325      325      325      325      325      325      336

6.0%       325      325      325      325      325      325      325

5.0%       298      298      325      325      325      325      325

 

4.0%       289      289      289      289      289      325      325

3.0%       289      289      289      289      289      289      289

2.0%       264      284      284      284      289      289      289

1.0%       264      264      264      264      264      264      284

0.0%       252      252      252      252      259      264      264

                                                     

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III

Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry vote share

                                                     

                   Kerry Vote Share                           

 

                   Uncounted Vote Share                               

           50%     55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR

6.8%       51.89%   52.03%   52.16%   52.30%   52.44%   52.57%   52.71%

6.5%       51.73%   51.87%   52.00%   52.14%   52.28%   52.42%   52.55%

6.0%       51.47%   51.60%   51.74%   51.88%   52.02%   52.15%   52.29%

5.0%       50.94%   51.08%   51.22%   51.35%   51.49%   51.63%   51.76%

 

4.0%       50.42%   50.55%   50.69%   50.83%   50.96%   51.10%   51.24%

3.0%       49.89%   50.03%   50.16%   50.30%   50.44%   50.58%   50.71%

2.0%       49.36%   49.50%   49.64%   49.78%   49.91%   50.05%   50.19%

1.0%       48.84%   48.98%   49.11%   49.25%   49.39%   49.52%   49.66%

0.0%       48.31%   48.45%   48.59%   48.72%   48.86%   49.00%   49.14%

                                                     

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV

Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry margin

                                                     

                                                     

                   Kerry Margin (in thousands)                                 

 

                   Uncounted Vote Share                                

           50%     55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR

6.8%       6011     6355     6699     7044     7388     7732     8077

6.5%       5614     5958     6303     6647     6991     7336     7680

6.0%       4953     5297     5642     5986     6330     6675     7019

5.0%       3631     3975     4320     4664     5008     5353     5697

 

4.0%       2309     2654     2998     3342     3686     4031     4375

3.0%       987      1332     1676     2020     2365     2709     3053

2.0%       -335     10 &nbbsp;     354      698      1043     1387     1731

1.0%       -1657    -1312  p;  -968     -624     -279 &    65       409

0.0%       -2979    -2634  p;  -2290    -1946    -1601  p;  -1257    -913

 

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS V:

Probability of Kerry Vote Discrepancy

MoE: 1.0%

 

                   Probability of Vote Discrepancy                             

 

                   Uncounted Vote Share                               

           50%     55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR

6.8%       6E-13    9E-14    1E-14    1E-15    1E-16    0        0

6.5%       6E-12    8E-13    1E-13    2E-14    2E-15    2E-16    0

6.0%       2E-10    3E-11    5E-12    7E-13    1E-13    1E-14    2E-15

5.0%       8E-08    2E-08    4E-09    7E-10    1E-10    2E-11    4E-12

 

4.0%       1E-05    4E-06    1E-06    3E-07    6E-08    1E-08    3E-09

3.0%       7E-04    3E-04    1E-04    3E-05    1E-05    3E-06    8E-07

2.0%       2E-02    8E-03    4E-03    2E-03    6E-04    2E-04    8E-05

1.0%       1E-01    8E-02    5E-02    3E-02    1E-02    7E-03    3E-03

0.0%       5E-01    4E-01    3E-01    2E-01    1E-01    8E-02    4E-02

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of Uncounted and Switched Votes by State

(in thousands)

                                             

                 Recorded Vote                       Uncounted        Switched   TRUE Vote                                 

         Total    Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Kerry    Bush     Kerry         Bush     Margin   EVote

         122295   59027    62040    48.27%   50.73%   2582     826      4488     66097    58378    52.57%        46.43%   Change   Flip

                                                                                                                   

AL       1877     694      1176     37.0%    62.7%    42       14       47       784      1142     40.5%         59.1%    6.4%    

AK       307      111      191      36.2%    62.2%    7        2        8        125      186      39.7%         58.7%    6.3%    

AZ       1998     894      1104     44.7%    55.3%    31       10       61       986      1053     48.3%         51.6%    7.0%    

AR       1049     470      573      44.8%    54.6%    19       6        32       521      547      48.5%         50.9%    7.2%    

CA       12255    6745     5510     55.0%    45.0%    246      79       458      7449     5131     59.2%         40.8%    8.6%    

                                                                                                                   

CO       2116     1002     1101     47.4%    52.0%    31       10       68       1101     1043     51.0%         48.3%    7.3%     9

CT       1564     857      694      54.8%    44.4%    26       8        58       941      644      58.9%         40.3%    8.4%    

DC       226      203      21       89.8%    9.3%     10       3        14       227      10       94.8%         4.3%     14.4%   

DE       373      200      172      53.6%    46.1%    8        2        14       221      161      57.7%         42.0%    8.5%    

FL       7582     3584     3965     47.3%    52.3%    140      45       243      3967     3766     51.1%         48.5%    7.5%     27

                                                                                                                   

GA       3280     1366     1914     41.6%    58.4%    81       26       93       1540     1847     45.4%         54.5%    7.1%    

HI       426      232      194      54.5%    45.5%    18       6        16       265      184      59.0%         40.9%    9.7%    

ID       590      181      409      30.7%    69.3%    7        2        12       201      399      33.5%         66.5%    4.9%    

IL       5238     2892     2346     55.2%    44.8%    99       32       196      3187     2181     59.4%         40.6%    8.6%    

IN       2448     969      1479     39.6%    60.4%    37       12       66       1072     1425     42.9%         57.1%    6.3%    

                                                                                                                   

IA       1500     742      752      49.5%    50.1%    19       6        50       811      708      53.2%         46.4%    7.4%     7

KS       1180     435      736      36.9%    62.4%    18       6        30       482      712      40.1%         59.2%    5.9%    

KY       1791     713      1069     39.8%    59.7%    26       8        48       788      1029     43.1%         56.4%    6.3%    

LA       1929     820      1102     42.5%    57.1%    49       16       56       925      1062     46.4%         53.2%    7.3%    

ME       735      397      330      54.0%    44.9%    9        3        27       433      306      57.9%         41.0%    8.0%    

                                                                                                                   

MD       2370     1334     1024     56.3%    43.2%    60       19       91       1484     952      60.6%         38.9%    9.1%    

MA       2875     1804     1071     62.7%    37.3%    46       15       122      1972     963      67.2%         32.8%    9.4%    

MI       4816     2479     2313     51.5%    48.0%    89       28       168      2736     2173     55.4%         44.0%    8.0%    

MN       2811     1445     1347     51.4%    47.9%    41       13       98       1584     1262     55.3%         44.0%    7.8%    

MS       1146     458      685      40.0%    59.8%    31       10       31       520      664      43.8%         55.9%    7.0%    

                                                                                                                   

MO       2715     1259     1456     46.4%    53.6%    45       15       85       1390     1385     50.1%         49.9%    7.3%     11

MT       446      174      266      39.0%    59.6%    6        2        12       192      256      42.3%         56.4%    6.1%    

NE       773      254      513      32.9%    66.4%    11       3        17       282      499      35.8%         63.4%    5.3%    

NV       821      397      419      48.4%    51.0%    14       5        27       438      397      52.2%         47.2%    7.6%     5

NH       675      340      331      50.4%    49.0%    8        3        23       371      311      54.1%         45.3%    7.5%    

                                                                                                                   

NJ       3600     1911     1670     53.1%    46.4%    72       23       130      2113     1563     57.2%         42.3%    8.4%    

NM       751      370      377      49.3%    50.2%    13       4        25       408      356      53.1%         46.4%    7.7%     5

NY       7377     4314     2963     58.5%    40.2%    158      50       293      4764     2720     62.8%         35.9%    9.1%    

NC       3487     1526     1961     43.8%    56.2%    74       24       104      1704     1881     47.5%         52.5%    7.2%    

ND       312      111      197      35.6%    63.1%    4        1        8        123      191      38.7%         60.1%    5.7%    

                                                                                                                   

OH       5601     2741     2860     48.9%    51.1%    94       30       186      3021     2704     52.8%         47.2%    7.6%     20

OK       1464     504      960      34.4%    65.6%    28       9        34       566      935      37.7%         62.3%    5.8%    

OR       1810     943      867      52.1%    47.9%    26       8        64       1033     811      56.0%         44.0%    7.9%    

PA       5732     2938     2794     51.3%    48.7%    93       30       199      3231     2624     55.2%         44.8%    7.9%    

RI       434      260      169      59.9%    38.9%    7        2        18       284      153      64.2%         34.7%    9.0%    

                                                                                                                   

SC       1606     662      938      41.2%    58.4%    38       12       45       745      905      45.0%         54.6%    7.0%    

SD       386      149      233      38.6%    60.4%    6        2        10       165      225      41.9%         57.1%    6.1%    

TN       2429     1036     1384     42.7%    57.0%    45       14       70       1151     1328     46.3%         53.4%    6.9%    

TX       7360     2833     4527     38.5%    61.5%    129      41       192      3155     4376     41.9%         58.1%    6.3%    

UT       916      241      664      26.3%    72.5%    12       4        16       269      651      28.9%         69.9%    4.4%    

                                                                                                                   

VT       309      184      121      59.5%    39.2%    4        1        12       200      110      63.8%         34.9%    8.7%    

VA       3172     1455     1717     45.9%    54.1%    68       22       99       1622     1640     49.7%         50.3%    7.5%    

WA       2838     1510     1305     53.2%    46.0%    47       15       103      1660     1218     57.2%         42.0%    8.2%    

WV       755      327      424      43.3%    56.2%    9        3        22       359      405      46.7%         52.7%    6.6%    

WI       2984     1490     1478     49.9%    49.5%    44       14       101      1635     1391     53.7%         45.7%    7.6%    

WY       242      71       168      29.3%    69.4%    3        1        5        79       164      32.0%         66.7%    4.8%    

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Reconciling the Final 5 Million Votes

  

The 12% difference in margin between the initial 117 million recorded votes (Bush 51-Kerry 48%) and the late 5.0m (Kerry 53-Bush 44%) caused a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). Was this due to the fact that the election was already decided at the 117m mark and vote-rigging was no longer necessary? Late votes (absentees, etc.) were irrelevant as soon as Bush was declared the winner.  Many still recall that the day after the election the media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes, and remain unaware of the 5.0m late votes. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

 

Kerry's 52.98% share (2.65 of the 5.01m late votes) of the 122.29m recorded total is 64.79m. Adding his 75% share of uncounted votes (2.58 of 3.45m) brings his final total to 67.37m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator  model which determined that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) less mortality and assumed a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the national vote.

 

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.  This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:

1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial  recorded votes

 

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

 

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:

1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.

2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True vote.

3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.

 

 

Final Recorded Vote

Bush              62,040,610       50.73%

Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%

Other              1,224,499        1.00%

Total            122,293,548        100%

 

Initial 117.28m votes                        

Bush              59,834,866       51.02%

Kerry             56,373,514       48.07%

Other             1,073,874        0.91%

Total            117,282,254        100%

 

Late 5.01m votes

Bush              2,205,744        44.02%

Kerry             2,654,925        52.98%

Other              150,625          3.00%

Total             5,011,294         100%

 

Other:

Nader             406,940    0.35%

Badnarik          384,174    0.33%

Peroutka          132,054    0.11%

Cobb              107,400    0.09%

Peltier            21,616    0.02%

Brown              10,283    0.01%

Harris              6,962    0.01%

Calero              4,445    0.00%

 

 

Kerry Vote Share Summary

 Recorded   Kerry    Votes

Final      48.27%   122.29m

Initial    48.07%   117.28m

Late       52.98%     5.01m

 

State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE

Method     Kerry   Avg WPE Wtd Avg   Description

VNS        51.81%   5.95%   7.09%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from average

DSS        52.15%   6.73%   7.77%    Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed

IMS        51.91%   6.29%   7.37%    Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

 

National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)

3:59pm     50.48% 8349 respondents

7:33pm     50.78% 11027  

12:22am    50.78% 13047

Final      47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded votes)

 

Model      53.23% (Election Calculator-see below)

 

______________________________________________________________________________

 

The Final 5.6 Million Recorded Votes

                                                            

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm

                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                          

Kerry 2-party Unweighted Average Vote Share                                             

States grouped by Total Late Votes

 

Late     Exit     Late      Diff

100k+    55.1%    54.8%     0.3%

30-100k  47.0%    49.5%    -2.6%

10-30k   50.2%    54.6%    -4.4%

0-10k    48.3%    51.4%    -3.2%

                                  

All      50.0%    52.5%    -2.5%

 

 

Kerry 2-party Regional Weighted Average Vote Share                                             

 

* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes

 

        Final   Initial    Late    Change   WPE      Exit

Wtd      48.8%   48.5%     54.3%    5.8%    5.8%     51.6%

Unwtd    48.4%   48.4%     52.0%    3.7%    6.0%     51.5%

 

Weighted

East     56.5%    56.2%    62.4%    6.2%     9.7%     61.3%

Midw     48.1%    48.1%    56.1%    8.1%     3.4%     49.8%

South    42.7%    42.6%    46.6%    4.0%     5.8%     45.6%

West     41.7%    41.7%    41.9%    0.2%     4.8%     44.1%

FarW     53.2%    53.3%    53.0%    -0.2%    6.4%  ;   56.4%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change   WPE     Exit    

East                                               

CT       55.3%    55.3%    56.3%    1.0%     15.7%    63.3%

DC*      90.5%    90.5%    90.5%    0.0%     3.4%     92.2%

DE*      53.8%    53.8%    67.3%    13.4%    15.9%    61.9%

MA       62.7%    62.7%    71.5%    8.8%     5.8%     65.7%

MD       56.6%    56.2%    60.3%    4.1%     8.1%     60.7%

                                                   

ME*      54.6%    54.5%    87.3%    33.0%    3.8%     56.5%

NH*      50.7%    50.7%    55.8%    5.2%     13.6%    57.6%

NJ       53.4%    53.1%    57.6%    4.5%     9.7%     58.3%

NY       59.3%    58.8%    65.8%    7.0%     11.4%    65.1%

PA       51.3%    51.1%    58.6%    7.5%     8.8%     55.7%

RI       60.6%    60.5%    62.6%    2.1%     4.7%     63.0%

VT*      60.3%    60.3%    48.7%    -11.6%   15.0%  &nbssp; 68.0%

                                                   

        Final    Initial   Late    Change   WPE     Exit    

Midwest                                            

IA       49.7%    49.5%    62.1%    12.6%    3.0%     51.2%

IL       55.2%    55.1%    70.3%    15.2%    4.4%     57.4%

IN       39.6%    39.5%    62.0%    22.6%    1.5%     40.3%

KS       37.1%    37.0%    42.7%    5.8%     1.7%     38.0%

OH       48.9%    48.7%    56.2%    7.4%     10.9%    54.4%

                                                   

MI       51.7%    51.7%    58.4%    6.7%     6.3%     54.9%

MN       51.8%    51.8%    47.9%    -3.9%    9.3%  ;   56.5%

MO       46.4%    46.3%    63.8%    17.5%    5.8%     49.3%

ND*      36.1%    36.1%    37.4%    1.3%     -5.2%    33.4%

NE       33.2%    33.0%    43.6%    10.6%    8.1%     37.3%

                                                   

OK*      34.4%    34.4%    34.4%    0.0%     -1.9%    33.5%

SD       39.1%    39.1%    32.8%    -6.3%    -4.2%    37.0%

WI       50.2%    50.2%    36.3%    -13.9%   4.7%   p;  52.6%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change   WPE     Exit    

South                                              

AL*      37.1%    37.1%    67.6%    30.6%    11.3%    42.8%

AR       45.1%    45.0%    48.2%    3.2%     0.5%     45.3%

FL       47.5%    47.5%    50.5%    3.0%     7.6%     51.3%

GA       41.6%    41.6%    46.2%    4.6%     2.2%     42.8%

LA       42.7%    42.6%    79.5%    36.9%    3.8%     44.6%

                                                   

KY*      40.0%    40.0%    30.2%    -9.8%    -0.1%  p;  39.9%

MS       40.1%    40.0%    44.2%    4.3%     11.3%    46.2%

NC       43.8%    43.7%    45.4%    1.6%     11.3%    49.4%

SC       41.4%    41.3%    45.1%    3.8%     10.0%    46.4%

TN*      42.8%    42.8%    56.0%    13.2%    0.5%     43.1%

                                                   

VA       45.9%    45.8%    48.8%    3.0%     7.9%     49.8%

WV       43.5%    43.6%    40.5%    -3.0%    -5.8%  p;  40.6%

TX       38.5%    38.5%    45.3%    6.8%     4.8%     40.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change   WPE     Exit    

West                                               

CO       47.6%    47.3%    53.6%    6.3%     6.1%     50.7%

ID*      30.7%    30.7%    15.4%    -15.3%   1.0%   p;  31.2%

MT*      39.5%    39.5%    37.0%    -2.5%    -1.8%  p;  38.6%

NM       49.6%    49.4%    61.4%    11.9%    7.8%     53.5%

NV       48.7%    48.7%    50.4%    1.8%     10.1%    53.8%

                                                   

UT       26.7%    27.1%    21.4%    -5.7%    6.4%  ;   29.9%

WY*      29.7%    29.7%    23.8%    -5.9%    4.3%  ;   31.9%

 

        Final    Initial   Late    Change   WPE     Exit    

Far West                                           

AK       36.8%    36.2%    39.0%    2.8%     9.6%     41.7%

AZ       44.7%    44.7%    44.7%    -0.1%    4.6%  ;   47.0%

CA       55.0%    55.2%    54.4%    -0.8%    10.9%  p;  60.6%

HI*      54.4%    54.4%    82.6%    28.3%    4.7%     56.8%

OR       52.1%    52.0%    54.6%    2.6%     0.0%     52.1%

WA       53.6%    53.5%    57.7%    4.2%     8.4%     57.9%

 

 

State Recorded Votes

(in thousands)

 

         Final                              Initial                             Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207    810

                                                                                                          

East     26421    14744    11361    316      25262    14112    10980    170      1159     632      381     146

Midwest  32404    15470    16670    264      31960    15320    16552    87       444      150      117     177

South    37662    15943    21436    284      37142    15790    21261    90       521      153      175     194

West     5936     2437     3404     96       5699     2360     3298     41       238      76       106      56

Far West 19870    10435    9171     264      16592    8822     7743     26       3278     1613     1428     238

                                                                                                          

East                                                                                                    

CT       1579     857      694      27       1544     846      685      13       35       11       9        15

DC*      228      203      21       3        226      203      21       1        2        0        0        2

DE*      375      200      172      3        374      200      172      2        2        0        0        1

MA       2912     1804     1071     37       2861     1794     1067     0        51       10       4        37

MD       2387     1334     1025     27       2186     1224     952      11       200      111      73       17

                                                                                                          

ME*      741      397      330      14       734      395      330      8        7        1        0        5

NH*      678      341      331      6        675      340      331      4        2        0        0        2

NJ       3612     1911     1670     30       3405     1799     1587     19       206      112      83       12

NY       7391     4314     2963     114      6892     3993     2796     104      499      321      167      11

PA       5770     2938     2794     38       5643     2886     2757     0        127      52       37       38

RI       437      260      169      8        413      247      162      4        24       12       7        4

VT*      312      184      121      7        309      184      121      4        4        0        0        3

                                                                                                          

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL     KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

Midwest                                                                                                 

IA       1507     742      752      13       1486     733      747      6        21       9        5        7

IL       5274     2892     2346     37       5208     2871     2337     0        67       21       9        37

IN       2468     969      1479     20       2435     961      1474     0        33       8        5        20

KS       1188     435      736      16       1147     421      718      9        40       14       19       7

OH       5628     2741     2860     27       5456     2660     2796     0        172      82       64       27

                                                                                                          

MI       4839     2479     2314     46       4810     2475     2311     24       29       4        3        22

MN       2828     1445     1347     37       2807     1444     1345     19       21       1        2        18

MO       2731     1259     1456     16       2707     1254     1453     0        25       5        3        16

ND*      313      111      197      5        310      111      196      4        2        0        1        1

NE       778      254      513      11       762      249      507      6        17       5        6        5

                                                                                                          

OK*      1464     504      960      0        1464     504      960      0        0        0        0        0

SD       388      149      233      6        386      149      233      4        2        0        0        2

WI       2997     1490     1478     29       2982     1489     1477     16       15       1        1        13

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

South                                                                                                   

AL*      1883     694      1176     13       1876     693      1176     7        8        1        0        6

AR       1055     470      573      12       1037     464      567      6        18       6        6        6

FL       7610     3584     3965     62       7563     3575     3956     33       47       9        9        29

GA       3302     1366     1914     21       3235     1345     1890     0        67       21       24       21

LA       1943     820      1102     21       1928     819      1102     7        15       1        0        14

                                                                                                          

KY*      1796     713      1069     14       1790     712      1069     9        6        0        1        5

MS       1152     458      685      9        1118     445      669      3        35       13       16       6

NC       3501     1526     1961     14       3395     1484     1911     0        106      42       50       14

SC       1618     662      938      18       1580     650      924      5        38       11       14       13

TN*      2437     1036     1384     16       2437     1036     1384     16       0        0        0        0

                                                                                                          

VA       3198     1455     1717     27       3095     1417     1678     0        103      37       39       27

WV       756      327      424      6        744      322      418      4        12       4        6        2

TX       7411     2833     4527     51       7344     2826     4518     0        67       7        8        51

 

         Final                              Initial                            Late                     

         TOTAL   KERRY    BUSH     OTHER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    TOTAL    KERRY    BUSH   Other

         122294   59028    62041    1224     116654   56404    59834    414      5640     2624     2207     810

West                                                                                                    

CO       2130     1002     1101     27       2018     950      1056     12       112      52       45       15

ID*      598      181      409      8        589      181      408      0        9        0        1        8

MT*      450      174      266      11       445      173      265      6        5        0        1        5

NM       756      371      377      8        742      365      373      4        14       6        4        4

NV       830      397      419      14       813      393      415      5        16       4        4        9

                                                                                                          

UT       928      241      664      23       851      227      613      11       77       14       51       12

WY*      243      71       168      5        240      71       167      3        3        0        1        2

                                                                                                          

Far West                                                                                                

AK       313      111      191      11       242      86       152      4        71       25       39       7

AZ       2013     894      1104     15       1644     735      908      0        369      158      196      15

CA       12420    6745     5510     165      9831     5427     4403     0        2589     1318     1106     165

HI*      429      232      194      3        425      231      194      0        4        0        0        3

OR       1837     943      867      27       1714     891      823      0        123      52       44       27

WA       2859     1510     1305     44       2736     1452     1262     22       123      58       43       22

 

 

 

Calculated True Vote

 

         Late Share       Recorded    +Unctd = True Vote    

Kerry    2.65     53.0%    64.79        2.58   67.37 53.6%

Bush     2.21     44.0%    53.80        0.79   54.59 43.4%

Other    0.15     3.0%     3.71         0.07    3.78 3.0%

 

Total    5.01     100%     122.30       3.45   125.74 100%

 

 

Election Calculator

 

Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes                   

         Cast    Census   Uncounted

2004     2.74%    125.74   3.45

2000     4.86%    110.80   5.38

                         

Uncounted Vote share

2004             2000    

Kerry    75%      Gore     75%

Bush     23%      Bush     20%

Other    2%       Nader    5%

                         

2000 Annual Voter Mortality                        

Total    1.22%           

Gore share 50.4%         

                         

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004                         

Gore     95%             

Bush     95%             

Other    95%             

 

2000 Recorded                                      

Voted    Rec      Unctd    Cast     Deaths   Alive   

Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.71     52.33   

Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.47     49.07   

Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02    

                                                   

Total    105.42   5.38     110.80   5.38     105.42  

                                                   

2004 Calculated                   

     Turnout      Voted   Weight   Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV       -       255.59   20.4%    57%      41%      2%

Gore     95%     49.71    39.5%    91%      8%       1%

Bush     95%     46.61    37.1%    10%      90%      0%

Other    95%      3.82    3.0%     64%      17%      19%

                                           

        100.15   125.74    100%   53.23%    45.39%   1.38%

                                  66.93     57.07    1.74

 

 

True Vote Analysis: Models, Counties, Machines

 

 County Vote Database (2000-2004)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/CountyVoteDatabase.htm

 

Note:

County vote data are not the final recorded totals. 

Gore (13.2%) and Kerry (7.4%) margins were much higher in the missing, late votes. Why?

 

 

2000           Total    GORE   BUSH    NADER   GORE    BUSH    NADER

Recorded       104.30   51.0   50.46   2.83    48.9%   48.4%   2.7%

Database       101.73   49.55  49.34   2.85    48.7%   48.5%   2.8%

Difference     2.57     1.46   1.12    -.15    56.9%  ; 43.7%   -0.6%

Pct Total      2.46%    2.86%  2.22%   -0.53%  0.20%   -0.12%  -0.08%

 

2004           Total   KERRY   BUSH    OTHER   KERRY   BUSH    OTHER

Recorded       122.29   59.03  62.04   1.22    48.27%  50.73%  1.00%

Database       116.64   56.40  59.83   .407    48.35%  51.30%  0.35%

Difference     5.65     2.63   2.21    .813    46.50%  39.10%  14.40%

Pct Total      4.62%    4.45%  3.56%   66.64%  -0.09%  -0.56%  0.65%

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Counties with over 200,000 votes where Bush's net percentage margin increased the most from 2000

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

 

                                                     

State    County            GORE    BUSH     KERRY    BUSH     Net Vote Net Pct

CA       Fresno           43.7%    53.4%    41.7%    58.3%    15,759   6.9%

CA       Riverside        45.6%    51.8%    41.6%    58.4%    49,470   10.4%

CA       San Bernard      48.0%    49.3%    43.7%    56.3%    45,122   11.3%

FL       Brevard          44.9%    53.1%    41.7%    57.9%    24,818   7.9%

FL       Broward          67.7%    31.1%    64.6%    34.8%    577      6.8%

 

FL       Palm Beach       63.8%    36.2%    60.6%    39.2%    977      6.2%

FL       Polk              44.9%   53.9%    40.9%    58.7%    22,454   8.8%

FL       Volusia          53.3%    45.1%    50.6%    49.0%    11,172   6.5%

HI       Honolulu         55.0%    39.9%    51.4%    48.6%    29,968   12.3%

MD       An Arundl        45.2%    52.1%    43.2%    56.3%    15,760   6.2%

 

MI       Genesee          63.0%    35.1%    60.2%    39.4%    8,703    7.1%

NJ       Bergen           55.5%    41.9%    51.7%    47.8%    32,297   9.7%

NJ       Camden           64.7%    31.8%    62.5%    37.0%    8,129    7.4%

NJ       Middlesex        60.1%    36.5%    56.3%    43.1%    22,636   10.4%

NJ       Monmouth         50.6%    46.0%    44.6%    54.7%    41,656   14.7%

 

NJ       Ocean            47.6%    48.9%    38.9%    60.4%    48,420   20.2%

NY       Bronx            86.0%    11.9%    82.7%    16.7%    -3,055   8.0%

NY       Brooklyn         79.9%    16.1%    74.3%    24.8%    43,936   14.4%

NY       Nassau           57.6%    38.7%    52.3%    46.7%    71,250   13.3%

NY       Queens           74.2%    22.5%    71.2%    28.0%    23,052   8.5%

 

NY       Suffolk          53.2%    41.8%    49.1%    48.8%    59,633   11.2%

TN       Davidson         58.9%    41.0%    54.9%    44.7%    11,625   7.6%

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Largest Recorded Bush County Vote Gains

Minimum 30,000 increase from 2000 to 2004

 

Vote share = Bush share of county vote in 2004

Increase Votes = Bush increase in recorded votes from 2000

Pct Change = Bush percentage increase in votes from 2000

Net Gain = Bush percent change from Bush 2000 – Kerry percent change from Gore 2000

 

                                   Vote     Increase Pct     Net         Voting       

ST       County        Precincts   Share    Votes    Change   Gain     Incidents Method

AZ       Maricopa         1004     57.2%    145,697  27.0%    8.6%     32        Optical

CA       Los Angeles      4963     36.4%    142,610  14.9%    10.6%    36        Optical

CA       Riverside        1093     58.4%    49,812   18.9%    18.7%    2         DRE

CA       San Diego        3568     52.7%    46,329   10.5%    3.7%     9         Optical

FL       Brevard          177      57.9%    37,653   24.6%    13.0%    4         Optical

 

FL       Broward          618      34.8%    66,376   27.2%    12.7%    56        DRE

FL       Miami-Dade       614      46.8%    69,080   19.3%    0.2%     54        DRE

FL       Duval            268      57.9%    67,153   30.6%    -1.2%    12        Optical

FL       Hillsboro        320      53.2%    63,846   26.1%    5.6%     21        DRE

FL       Lee               150     60.1%    38,273   26.5%    4.5%     0         Optical

 

FL       Orange           232      49.7%    57,873   30.1%    2.7%     16        Optical

FL       Palm Beach       531      39.2%    58,943   27.8%    10.1%    88        DRE

FL       Pasco            132      54.5%    34,616   33.5%    15.6%    0         DRE

FL       Pinellas         345      49.8%    40,804   18.1%    7.1%     6         DRE

FL       Polk              163     58.7%    33,237   26.9%    14.4%    5         Optical

 

FL       Seminole         133      58.2%    32,449   30.0%    6.9%     4         Optical

GA       Cobb              152     62.5%    32,712   18.9%    2.5%     2         DRE

GA       Gwinnett         133      66.3%    38,257   23.9%    -0.6%    2         DRE

HI       Honolulu         214      48.6%    42,859   29.7%    21.3%    2         Optical

IL       Cook              5016    29.4%    50,230   8.5%     -0.4%    84  &nnbsp;     Punch

 

IL       Will              352     52.8%    33,592   26.0%    4.4%     4         Other

MI       Macomb           406      50.4%    37,063   18.4%    6.6%     1         Lever

MI       Oakland          608      49.5%    42,285   13.4%    1.3%     10        Punch

MI       Wayne            1511     30.0%    37,960   14.8%    -0.9%    59        DRE

NV       Clark Co         677      47.3%    82,500   32.6%    2.7%     24        DRE

 

NJ       Bergen           554      47.8%    34,462   19.3%    18.2%    4         DRE

NJ       Monmouth         428      54.7%    42,999   26.6%    25.6%    0         Lever

NJ       Ocean            292      60.4%    41,758   29.0%    36.2%    0         DRE

NY       Brooklyn         1888     24.8%    67,235   42.9%    38.0%    63        Lever

NY       Nassau           1070     46.7%    64,523   23.1%    25.3%    2         Lever

 

NY       Queens           1470     28.0%    41,325   26.4%    21.8%    23        Lever

NY       Suffolk          1006     48.8%    77,671   25.7%    19.8%    0         Lever

NY       Westchester      948      40.7%    38,923   25.4%    7.3%     6         Lever

NC       Wake              169     51.5%    30,069   17.4%    -6.7%    1  &nbbsp;      Optical

OH       Cuyahoga         1506     33.2%    30,935   14.3%    -6.8%    75        Punch

 

OH       Franklin         760      45.9%    41,170   17.6%    -11.3%   82        DRE

OK       Oklahoma         273      64.2%    35,629   20.4%    4.3%     0         Optical

PA       Allegheny        1309     42.5%    33,311   12.4%    2.6%     31        Lever

PA       Bucks            298      48.6%    31,835   20.7%    2.5%     3         Lever

PA       Montgomery       405      44.2%    30,938   18.0%    -2.3%    5  &nbbsp;      DRE

 

TX       Bexar            626      55.3%    44,226   17.0%    5.0%     6         DRE

TX       Collin           127      71.7%    44,854   25.9%    -11.3%   0         DRE

TX       Denton           126      70.4%    38,403   27.3%    -4.8%    0         Paper

TX       Harris           935      55.1%    54,874   9.5%     -2.6%    37        DRE

TX       Tarrant          535      62.8%    62,451   17.9%    1.7%     2         Optical

 

UT       Salt Lake        688      60.5%    38,415   18.4%    0.1%     0        

WA       King             2707     34.1%    44,058   15.2%    -7.2%    0  &nbbsp;      Optical

WA       Pierce           635      48.5%    39,987   27.5%    8.9%     0         Optical

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Counties where Bush’s recorded vote increased by at least:

1) 20,000 over his 2000 vote;

2) 16% over his 2000 vote;

3) 2% greater than Kerry's percentage increase over Gore’s recorded vote.

 

                          Recorded vote (000)                Chg from 2000      %Change           Net

ST       County           Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Bush     Incidents

         Total             9244    9062     46.7%    52.8%    1161     2226     15.4%    26.7%    11.3%    607

 

AZ       Maricopa         404      540      42.8%    57.2%    74       146      18.4%    27.0%    8.6%     32 Optical

AZ       Pima              154     138      52.7%    47.3%    16       23       10.6%    16.3%    5.7%     8  Optical

CA       Placer           50       85       36.9%    63.1%    11       22       21.8%    25.8%    4.0%     0  Optical

CA       Riverside        188      263      41.6%    58.4%    0        50       0.2%     18.9%    18.7%    2  DRE

FL       Brevard          110      153      41.7%    57.9%    13       38       11.7%    24.6%    13.0%    4  Optical

 

FL       Broward          452      244      64.6%    34.8%    66       66       14.5%    27.2%    12.7%    56 DRE

FL       Clay              19      62       23.3%    76.4%    4        20       22.6%    32.6%    10.0%    0  Optical

FL       Escambia         48       93       33.9%    65.7%    7        20       15.1%    21.8%    6.7%     1  Optical

FL       Hillsboro        213      245      46.4%    53.2%    44       64       20.5%    26.1%    5.6%     21 DRE

FL       Lake              48      74       39.1%    60.3%    12       24       24.2%    32.8%    8.6%     3  DRE

 

FL       Lee               94      144      39.3%    60.1%    21       38       22.0%    26.5%    4.5%     0  Optical

FL       Manatee          61       81       42.8%    56.8%    12       23       19.7%    28.7%    9.0%     0  Optical

FL       Marion           57       81       41.1%    58.4%    13       26       22.0%    32.1%    10.2%    2  Optical

FL       Orange           193      192      50.0%    49.7%    53       58       27.4%    30.1%    2.7%     16 Optical

FL       Palm Beach       328      212      60.6%    39.2%    58       59       17.7%    27.8%    10.1%    88 DRE

 

FL       Pasco            85       103      44.7%    54.5%    15       35       17.9%    33.5%    15.6%    0  DRE

FL       Pinellas         225      226      49.7%    49.8%    25       41       11.0%    18.1%    7.1%     6  DRE

FL       Polk              86      124      40.9%    58.7%    11       33       12.5%    26.9%    14.4%    5  Optical

FL       Sarasota         88       105      45.5%    53.9%    16       22       17.6%    20.6%    3.0%     2  DRE

FL       Seminole         77       108      41.4%    58.2%    18       32       23.1%    30.0%    6.9%     4  Optical

 

FL       Volusia          115      112      50.6%    49.0%    18       29       15.6%    26.2%    10.5%    8  Optical

GA       Cobb              104     173      37.5%    62.5%    17       33       16.4%    18.9%    2.5%     2  DRE

HI       Honolulu         152      144      51.4%    48.6%    13       43       8.5%     29.7%    21.3%    2  Optical

IL       Will              115     129      47.2%    52.8%    25       34       21.6%    26.0%    4.4%     4 

MD       An Arundl        95       124      43.2%    56.3%    9        25       9.6%     20.1%    10.5%    0  DRE

 

MD       Baltimore        170      155      52.0%    47.5%    16       28       9.1%     18.1%    9.0%     0  DRE

MI       Macomb           196      201      49.0%    50.4%    23       37       11.8%    18.4%    6.6%     1  Lever

MN       Anoka            80       92       46.4%    53.1%    12       23       15.2%    24.6%    9.4%     2  Optical

MO       Jackson          181      130      58.3%    41.7%    21       25       11.5%    19.6%    8.1%     0  Punch

MO       St. Charles      67       96       80.8%    19.2%    13       24       19.5%    24.7%    5.2%     0  Optical

 

NE       Douglas          81       118      40.3%    59.0%    17       30       21.1%    25.0%    3.9%     0 

NV       Clark Co         280      253      52.2%    47.3%    83       83       29.9%    32.6%    2.7%     24 DRE

NJ       Bergen           193      178      51.7%    47.8%    2        34       1.1%     19.3%    18.2%    4  DRE

NJ       Burlington       104      90       53.3%    46.2%    9        22       8.6%     24.2%    15.7%    1  DRE

NJ       Middlesex        156      119      56.3%    43.1%    5        28       3.4%     23.4%    20.0%    2  DRE

 

NJ       Monmouth         132      162      44.6%    54.7%    1        43       1.0%     26.6%    25.6%    0  Lever

NJ       Ocean            93       144      38.9%    60.4%    -7       42       -7.2%    29.0%    36.2%    0  DRE

NM       San Miguel       21       22       48.3%    51.2%    15       20       69.2%    90.1%    21.0%    1  DRE

NY       Brooklyn         468      157      74.3%    24.8%    23       67       5.0%     42.9%    38.0%    63 Lever

NY       Erie              231     171      56.2%    41.6%    13       28       5.7%     16.2%    10.5%    2  Lever

 

NY       Monroe           166      159      50.4%    48.1%    14       26       8.3%     16.6%    8.2%     0  Lever

NY       Nassau           312      279      52.3%    46.7%    -7       665       -2.2%    23.1%  p;  25.3%    2  Lever

NY       Queens           398      157      71.2%    28.0%    18       41       4.6%     26.4%    21.8%    23 Lever

NY       Staten Island     63       84      42.3%    56.9%    -6       24       -9.9%    28.8%    38.7%    0

NY       Suffolk          303      302      49.1%    48.8%    18       78       5.9%     25.7%    19.8%    0  Lever

 

NY       Westchester      218      153      57.9%    40.7%    40       39       18.1%    25.4%    7.3%     6  Lever

OH       Butler           54       107      33.7%    66.3%    10       23       17.6%    21.6%    4.0%     0  Punch

OK       Oklahoma         97       175      35.8%    64.2%    16       36       16.1%    20.4%    4.3%     0  Optical

OK       Tulsa            90       163      35.6%    64.4%    9        29       9.5%     17.9%    8.4%     3  Optical

PA       Bucks            162      153      51.4%    48.6%    30       32       18.2%    20.7%    2.5%     3  Lever

 

PA       Philadelphia     525      126      80.7%    19.3%    83       26       15.8%    21.1%    5.3%         196 DRE

PA       York               64     115      35.7%    64.3%    12       27       18.3%    23.7%    5.4%     0  Lever

TN       Davidson         132      108      54.9%    44.7%    12       24       9.4%     22.3%    13.0%    1  DRE

TN       Knox               66     111      37.2%    62.4%    5        24       7.8%     21.8%    14.0%    0  DRE

TX       Bexar            210      260      44.7%    55.3%    25       44       12.0%    17.0%    5.0%     6  DRE

 

TX       Montgomery       29       104      21.5%    78.5%    5        24       18.5%    22.8%    4.3%     0  Optical

UT       Davis            20       84       19.3%    79.8%    2        20       7.7%     23.9%    16.2%    0 

VA       Bedford City     9        22       29.2%    70.8%    8        21       88.1%    94.2%    6.1%     0  Lever

VA       Virginia Beach   71       104      40.5%    59.5%    8        20       11.9%    19.3%    7.5%     0  Lever

WA       Pierce           152      146      50.7%    48.5%    28       40       18.5%    27.5%    8.9%     0  Optical

 

WA       Spokane          84       107      43.5%    55.6%    15       26       17.8%    24.0%    6.2%     1  Optical

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

106 Counties with 100,000+ votes in 2004 and at least a 2% increase in Bush margin from 2000

 

                          2000                      2004                       Chg from 2000     Bush     

ST       County           Total    GORE     BUSH     Total    KERRY    BUSH    KERRY     BUSH   Increase

Total                     25122                      28342                     1087      2712   in Margin

 

AL       Jefferson        271.8    47.8%    51.0%    291.6    45.3%    54.3%    2.3      20.0     5.9%      Optical

AL       Madison          112.0    43.0%    55.5%    130.4    40.4%    59.2%    4.5      15.1     6.3%      Optical

AL       Mobile           138.4    42.4%    56.5%    156.3    40.8%    58.9%    5.1      13.8     4.0%      Optical

AZ       Maricopa         742.4    44.4%    53.1%    943.7    42.8%    57.2%    74.4     145.7    5.7%      Optical

AZ       Pima             265.2    52.0%    43.7%    292.7    52.7%    47.3%    16.4     22.6     2.9%      Optical

 

CA       Fresno           190.9    43.7%    53.4%    206.2    41.7%    58.3%    2.6      18.4     6.9%      Optical

CA       Kern             163.1    36.6%    61.5%    175.7    32.5%    67.5%    -2.5     18.3     10.0%     Optical

CA       Los Angeles      2,488    64.2%    32.6%    2625     63.6%    36.4%    72.0     142.6    4.3%      Optical

CA       Orange           827.5    40.9%    56.3%    756.0    39.7%    60.3%    -37.6    -10.7    5.0%  ;    DRE

CA       Placer           105.4    36.7%    59.5%    134.1    36.9%    63.1%    10.8     21.8     3.4%      Optical

 

CA       Riverside        411.5    45.6%    51.8%    451.0    41.6%    58.4%    0.3      49.8     10.4%     DRE

CA       Sacramento       389.8    49.9%    45.9%    347.3    50.6%    49.4%    -18.9    -7.5     2.8%      Optical

CA       San Bernard      419.9    48.0%    49.3%    401.7    43.7%    56.3%    -26.2    18.9     11.3%     DRE

CA       San Diego        789.2    46.6%    49.8%    834.0    47.3%    52.7%    27.1     46.3     2.1%      Optical

CA       San Joaquin      151.5    48.0%    49.5%    162.2    46.2%    53.8%    2.1      12.4     6.2%      Optical

 

CA       Stanislaus       105.4    45.3%    52.1%    120.6    41.2%    58.8%    1.9      16.0     10.8%     Optical

CA       Ventura          227.9    48.3%    48.0%    212.4    48.7%    51.3%    -6.6     -0.5     2.9% &     Punch

CO       Adams            105.8    51.1%    44.9%    128.3    50.7%    48.7%    11.0     15.0     4.2%      Optical

FL       Alachua          84.7     55.9%    40.3%    110.5    56.4%    43.1%    15.0     13.5     2.3%      Optical

FL       Brevard          217.0    44.9%    53.1%    264.2    41.7%    57.9%    12.8     37.7     7.9%      Optical

 

FL       Broward          571.0    67.7%    31.1%    699.9    64.6%    34.8%    65.8     66.4     6.8%      DRE

FL       Escambia         115.7    35.4%    63.1%    142.2    33.9%    65.7%    7.3      20.4     4.0%      Optical

FL       Hillsboro        357.8    47.4%    50.5%    460.0    46.4%    53.2%    43.9     63.8     3.7%      DRE

FL       Lake              88.0    41.5%    56.8%    123.3    39.1%    60.3%    11.6     24.4     6.0%      DRE

FL       Lee              183.3    40.5%    57.9%    240.2    39.3%    60.1%    20.8     38.3     3.1%      Optical

 

FL       Manatee          109.6    44.9%    52.9%    143.2    42.8%    56.8%    12.1     23.3     6.0%      Optical

FL       Marion           101.6    44.0%    54.3%    139.2    41.1%    58.4%    12.6     26.1     6.9%      Optical

FL       Palm Beach       422.7    63.8%    36.2%    541.2    60.6%    39.2%    58.0     58.9     6.2%      DRE

FL       Pasco            141.5    49.1%    48.5%    189.4    44.7%    54.5%    15.2     34.6     10.4%     DRE

FL       Pinellas         395.5    50.7%    46.7%    453.4    49.7%    49.8%    24.7     40.8     4.1%      DRE

 

FL       Polk             167.6    44.9%    53.9%    210.3    40.9%    58.7%    10.8     33.2     8.8%      Optical

FL       Seminole         136.8    43.3%    55.3%    185.6    41.4%    58.2%    17.8     32.4     4.7%      Optical

FL       Volusia          182.6    53.3%    45.1%    227.8    50.6%    49.0%    18.0     29.2     6.5%      Optical

HI       Honolulu         253.9    55.0%    39.9%    296.6    51.4%    48.6%    12.9     42.9     12.3%     Optical

IL       Madison          110.3    53.6%    44.3%    122.5    51.6%    48.4%    4.2      10.4     6.0%      Punch

 

IL       St. Clair        99.4     56.0%    42.4%    112.5    55.4%    44.6%    6.7      8.0      2.7%      Optical

IL       Will             189.7    47.7%    50.3%    244.5    47.2%    52.8%    25.0     33.6     2.9%     

IN       Lake             172.5    63.2%    36.8%    176.7    61.2%    38.8%    -0.9     5.1      4.0%      DRE

IN       St Joseph        94.5     50.2%    49.8%    107.9    48.8%    51.2%    5.2      8.2      2.8%      DRE

KS       Sedgwick         161.0    38.9%    58.2%    168.1    36.5%    62.7%    -1.1     11.7     6.8%      DRE

        

LA       Caddo            95.1     50.0%    49.2%    106.2    48.7%    51.1%    4.2      7.5      3.2%      DRE

LA       E Baton Rouge    167.7    45.6%    53.1%    182.9    45.0%    54.7%    5.8      10.8     2.1%      DRE

LA       Jefferson        177.7    39.6%    59.1%    190.6    37.7%    61.8%    1.5      12.7     4.5%      Lever

LA       St Tammany       83.1     27.3%    71.2%    100.2    24.6%    75.0%    1.9      15.9     6.5%      DRE

MD       An Arundl        190.5    45.2%    52.1%    220.4    43.2%    56.3%    9.1      24.9     6.2%      DRE

 

MD       Baltimore        290.1    53.3%    43.9%    327.4    52.0%    47.5%    15.5     28.1     4.9%      DRE

MD       Harford          86.7     39.4%    58.1%    104.8    35.2%    64.3%    2.8      17.0     10.4%     DRE

MI       Genesee          190.1    63.0%    35.1%    213.2    60.2%    39.4%    8.5      17.3     7.1%      Optical

MI       Macomb           342.9    50.3%    47.9%    399.0    49.0%    50.4%    23.1     37.1     3.8%      Lever

MI       Saginaw          93.4     54.4%    44.1%    102.5    53.5%    46.0%    4.1      6.0      2.8%      Paper

 

MN       Anoka            143.9    47.3%    48.1%    173.1    46.4%    53.1%    12.2     22.6     5.9%      Optical

MO       Greene           102.0    40.3%    58.0%    124.5    37.5%    62.5%    5.5      18.7     7.4%      Punch

MO       Jackson          269.3    59.5%    38.7%    310.6    58.3%    41.7%    20.8     25.5     4.2%      Punch

NE       Douglas          158.8    40.1%    55.8%    200.4    40.3%    59.0%    17.1     29.6     3.0%     

NE       Lancaster         99.8    42.0%    52.3%    120.5    42.6%    56.6%    9.5      16.0     3.6%     

 

NJ       Bergen           343.6    55.5%    41.9%    373.0    51.7%    47.8%    2.2      34.5     9.7%      DRE

NJ       Burlington       168.1    56.6%    40.6%    195.0    53.3%    46.2%    8.9      21.8     8.8%      DRE

NJ       Camden           185.5    64.7%    31.8%    207.7    62.5%    37.0%    9.9      18.0     7.4%      Lever

NJ       Essex            250.6    71.6%    26.2%    273.9    70.1%    29.5%    12.6     15.2     4.8%      Lever

NJ       Gloucester       105.7    57.3%    39.7%    127.0    52.4%    47.1%    5.9      17.8     12.3%     DRE

 

NJ       Hudson           160.4    70.6%    26.7%    170.0    66.8%    32.7%    0.4      12.7     9.7%      DRE

NJ       Mercer           126.4    62.1%    34.6%    139.9    61.2%    38.2%    7.2      9.8      4.5%      DRE

NJ       Middlesex        251.0    60.1%    36.5%    277.3    56.3%    43.1%    5.3      27.9     10.4%     DRE

NJ       Monmouth         258.0    50.6%    46.0%    295.5    44.6%    54.7%    1.3      43.0     14.7%     Lever

NJ       Morris           204.9    42.8%    54.1%    218.4    41.4%    58.0%    2.7      15.9     5.4%      DRE

 

NJ       Ocean            208.5    47.6%    48.9%    238.0    38.9%    60.4%    -6.7     41.8     20.2%     DRE

NJ       Passaic          147.2    58.3%    39.3%    166.3    55.3%    44.2%    6.1      15.8     8.0%      DRE

NJ       Union            176.8    60.7%    36.7%    191.1    58.9%    40.6%    5.3      12.8     5.7%      DRE

NY       Albany           130.4    59.7%    34.0%    135.6    60.2%    37.8%    3.8      6.9      3.3%      Lever

NY       Bronx            279.0    86.0%    11.9%    317.6    82.7%    16.7%    22.8     19.7     8.0%      Lever

 

NY       Brooklyn         556.9    79.9%    16.1%    630.3    74.3%    24.8%    23.3     67.2     14.4%     Lever

NY       Dutchess         105.0    46.7%    47.1%    114.0    46.5%    51.9%    4.0      9.7      4.9%      Lever

NY       Erie             383.5    56.8%    37.4%    411.0    56.2%    41.6%    13.3     27.7     4.8%      Lever

NY       Monroe           300.4    50.8%    44.1%    330.4    50.4%    48.1%    13.9     26.3     4.4%      Lever

NY       Nassau           554.0    57.6%    38.7%    597.1    52.3%    46.7%    -6.7     64.5 &    13.3%     Lever

 

NY       Onondaga         189.6    53.8%    40.9%    198.7    54.1%    44.1%    5.4      10.1     3.0%      Lever

NY       Orange           117.7    45.8%    49.6%    135.1    43.6%    55.0%    5.1      16.0     7.6%      Lever

NY       Queens           511.7    74.2%    22.5%    559.4    71.2%    28.0%    18.3     41.3     8.5%      Lever

NY       Rockland         116.8    55.9%    40.2%    121.8    48.7%    49.8%    -6.0     13.7     16.8%     Lever

NY       Staten Island    133.1    51.8%    45.2%    148.4    42.3%    56.9%    -6.2     24.3     21.3%    

 

NY       Suffolk          536.3    53.2%    41.8%    618.3    49.1%    48.8%    18.0     77.7     11.2%     Lever

NY       Westchester      306.2    58.4%    37.4%    377.3    57.9%    40.7%    39.5     38.9     3.8%      Lever

OH       Butler           130.9    34.1%    63.9%    160.9    33.7%    66.3%    9.5      23.1     2.9%      Punch

OK       Oklahoma         220.7    37.0%    63.0%    272.0    35.8%    64.2%    15.7     35.6     2.4%      Optical

OK       Tulsa            215.8    37.8%    62.2%    253.6    35.6%    64.4%    8.5      29.3     4.5%      Optical

 

OR       Marion           111.6    44.3%    51.5%    114.1    45.1%    54.9%    2.0      5.2      2.7%     

PA       Lackawanna        93.7    60.8%    37.0%    103.9    57.1%    42.9%    2.4      9.9      9.5%      Lever

PA       Luzerne          117.3    52.7%    44.4%    133.4    51.5%    48.5%    6.8      12.7     5.4%      Lever

PA       North Hampton    102.5    51.3%    45.8%    124.6    50.5%    49.5%    10.3     14.7     4.5%      Lever

PA       Westmoreland     154.1    46.4%    52.0%    175.8    43.8%    56.2%    5.5      18.7     6.8%      Lever

 

PA       York              142.8   36.4%    61.2%    178.2    35.7%    64.3%    11.6     27.2     3.8%      Lever

TN       Davidson         203.7    58.9%    41.0%    241.0    54.9%    44.7%    12.4     24.1     7.6%      DRE

TN       Hamilton         118.6    43.6%    56.2%    136.3    42.0%    57.6%    5.6      11.9     3.0%      Optical

TN       Knox              147.7   41.2%    58.6%    177.3    37.2%    62.4%    5.1      24.1     7.8%      DRE

TX       Bexar            410.4    45.1%    52.5%    470.1    44.7%    55.3%    25.2     44.2     3.1%      DRE

 

TX       El Paso          144.2    58.1%    39.9%    167.9    56.5%    43.5%    11.1     15.5     5.2%      Optical

TX       Galveston        92.6     43.2%    54.4%    105.2    41.7%    58.3%    3.9      10.9     5.3%      Optical

TX       Hidalgo          96.7     60.7%    38.4%    114.5    55.1%    44.9%    4.4      14.3     12.2%     Lever

TX       Montgomery       105.7    22.0%    76.2%    132.9    21.5%    78.5%    5.3      23.8     2.8%      Optical

TX       Nueces           96.8     46.8%    51.5%    103.7    42.8%    57.2%    -0.9     9.5      9.7%      Optical

 

UT       Davis             87.6    21.5%    73.3%    105.8    19.3%    79.8%    1.6      20.2     8.7%     

UT       Utah             119.8    13.7%    81.7%    108.2    11.0%    87.9%    -4.5     -2.9     8.8% &    

VA       Virginia Beach   148.3    42.0%    56.4%    174.4    40.5%    59.5%    8.4      20.1     4.5%      Lever

WA       Pierce           237.2    52.3%    44.5%    300.1    50.7%    48.5%    28.2     40.0     5.5%      Optical

WA       Spokane          156.6    44.2%    52.2%    193.4    43.5%    55.6%    15.0     25.8     4.1%      Optical

WI       Brown            106.7    46.0%    50.9%    122.7    44.7%    54.7%    5.8      12.9     5.1%     

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

Florida

 

In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily Democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners.  And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth.  Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth. The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close.

 

Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount – and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. And don’t forget the thousands of Butterfly ballots which fooled Gore voters into voting for Buchanan.

 

Approximately 54% of the spoiled ballots were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then 126,000 (72%) of the spoiled ballots were Gore votes. And the infamous “Butterfly” ballot caused several thousand Gore voters to mistakenly vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County.  Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in Palm Beach and just 0.25% elsewhere.  

 

Dan Rather's expose on voting machines in Florida 2000 showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in highly Democratic precincts. Faulty paper had never before been considered a factor in mechanical voting failure.  The spoiled punched cards in Florida 2000 were just the tip of the national iceberg.

 

Kerry had a 100,000 built-in vote advantage going into the election. He could count on a solid majority (70-80%) of 90,000 returning Nader voters. No more hanging chads from spoiled punch cards; Touch screens and Optical scanners would be used for input to the central tabulators.  Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable voter registration  and GOTV effort. In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent higher than in 2000,

while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest Republican areas. Of course, they had to overcome Bush’s popularity; he had a whopping 48.5% approval rating on Election Day.

 

The Florida pre-election polls were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1-48.8%.  Kerry was on track to a 200,000 vote win. Bush “won” the official vote by 52.1-47.1%, a 381,000 margin. Kerry won TS counties by 51.3-47.8%, but Bush won

 OS counties by a whopping 57.0-42.3%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated Democratic TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. The TS county vote share matched the exit poll to within 1%, but the OS county share deviated by 9% in favor of Bush.   The probability was virtually zero that Kerry's TS vote share would exceed his state-wide share by 4.2% and his OS county share by 9%.

 

Consider Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and  2004 Voter Registration. The Democrats had a 41.6- 36.1% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 41.1-39.5% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties.  Bush’s vote share was 131% of his registration share in TS (DRE) counties and 145% in Optiscan counties. For Kerry, the corresponding percentages were 125% and 102%.  Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties?  Since Bush was first selected in 2000, the Florida Republican vote share to registration share ratio has increased sharply compared to the Democrats.

 

There has been a dramatic increase in the ratio of Republican (Bush) vote share to registration share:

 

In 1996, Dole’s vote share was 106% of the registered Republican share.

Clinton’s share was equal (100%) to the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2000, Bush’s vote share was 128% of the registered Republican share.

Gore’s share was 109% of the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2004, Bush’s vote share was 138% of the registered Republican share.

Kerry’s share was 114% of the registered Democratic share.

 

In 2004, the Kerry vote/registration ratio was 84%; for Bush, it was 102%. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 369,000, yet Bush won by 381,000 votes. Bush received 61,000 more votes than registered Republicans; Kerry had 689,000 fewer votes than registered Democrats. Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties? 

 

To match the recorded vote, Bush needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote (15% in TS counties and 28% in OS counties). If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, he needed just 79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties to win the state.

 

So how did Bush do it?

 

Could it have been the Independent vote?

No, according to the Composite Florida exit poll, Independents voted 60-38% for Kerry.

 

Could it have been late undecided voters who made up their minds in the month prior to the election?

No,  undecideds voted 61-38% for Kerry.

 

Could it have been new voters? 

No, Kerry won first-timers by 58-41%. The Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the Republicans.

 

Could it have been that voters favored an AWOL “War President” over a Medal of Honor winner? 

No, Bush average approval rating was 48% on Election Day (11 national polls).

 

Could it have been the 90,000 returning Nader 2000 voters?

No, the Composite National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicated that Kerry led Bush by 64-17%.

The Final NEP (13660 respondents) had the spread as 71-21%, a 45,000 vote margin.

 

Could it have been the voting machines?

Do you believe in magic?

 

HAVA seat.

Let’s crunch some numbers.

 

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

 

The unadjusted, "pristine" Florida exit poll had Kerry leading by 51.0-48.2%. The Florida General Exit Poll  indicated that the election was a virtual tie (see the Gender demographic). The Final State and National Exit poll demographic weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote count. It’s standard operating procedure.

 

But a closer analysis shows significant Bush bias in exit poll weights and vote shares. County registration data, the pre-election polling trend, Bush’s approval and exit poll demographics indicate that Kerry won Florida by 200-300,000 votes. 

 

The Florida Exit Poll raised these red flags:

1) Party-ID weights: Dem 38/Rep 39%

 * The actual Florida 2004 Voter Registration shares were Dem 41.6 / Rep 36.1%

 

2) Bush led voters who decided one month before the election by 54-46%.

 * Late September pre-election polls indicated that the race was tied.

 * Kerry led voters who decided in the final month by 61-38%.

 

3) Bush approval: 53% (35% strong)

 * Actual approval was 48.5% (average of 11 national polls).

 

4) Urban Vote Share: 

    The Florida exit poll indicated Bush led by 53-46%.

 * The 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry led by 57-41%.

 

The pre-election 10-poll moving average projected Kerry by 51.1-48.8%.

The unadjusted exit poll (WPE method) had Kerry winning by 51.0-48.2%.

 

The following post-election models confirmed the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls:

 

1) Election Calculator:

  Final NEP vote shares with weights calculated from the 2000 vote, uncounted votes, voter mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004.  Kerry won by 51.4-48.0%, a 260,000 vote margin.

 

2) DRE (TS) Optical Scan (OS) county registration weight with plausible vote shares.

  Kerry won by 52.0-46.8%, a 400,000 vote margin.

 

3) Uncounted and switched vote adjustments to the final 2004 recorded vote.

  Kerry won by 51.3-48.2%, a 240,000 vote margin.

 

Florida Recorded Vote (in thousands)

2000      Vote   Pct     2004  Vote   Pct

Gore      2912   48.8%  Kerry 3584  47.1%

Bush      2913   48.8%  Bush  3965  52.1%

Other     139    2.4%   Other 62    0.8%

 

Recorded Vote by County Voting Machine Type

County Vote   Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush Other

DRE    3.90   51.3%   47.8%   0.9%    2.00    1.86 .04

OS     3.71   42.3%   57.0%   0.7%    1.57    2.11 .03

 

Total  7.61   47.1%   52.1%   0.8%    3.57    3.98 .06

 

Florida General Exit Poll

Bush wins by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes)

 

   Reg    Votes  Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       38%    2.89    86%  13%    1%     2.49   0.38   0.03

Rep       39%    2.97     7%  92%    1%     0.21   2.73   0.03

Ind       23%    1.75    60%  38%    2%     1.05   0.67   0.04

                                                  

Total     7.61   7.61   49.2% 49.6%  1.2%   3.74   3.77   0.09

 

 

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004

(see pg.32 for state WPE measures)

 

Florida     Kerry      Bush

IM WPE      51.0%   48.2%  

Best GEO    49.2    50.3   

Composite   49.3    50.1

Best SPM    48.6    51.0   

 

Recorded    47.1    52.1

 

IM WPE

The statewide WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.  Florida precincts had an average 7.8% WPE.  The unadjusted exit poll result was not provided by E-M in their Evaluation Report. But given the WPE, the raw, unadjusted exit poll shares can be calculated from the recorded vote shares:

 

Kerry = Final Recorded + .5* WPE = 47.1 + 3.9 = 51.0%.

Bush   = Final Recorded – .5* WPE = 52.1 - 3.9 = 48.2%

 

Best GEO Survey Estimate

The Best GEO is the estimate with the lowest Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF) using the cumulative precinct tallies for each candidate.

 

Prior Estimate

Prior Estimates are based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. It is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate on Election Day to create the Composite Estimate.

 

Composite Estimate

The Composite is the weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate.  It is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported.View the Florida General Exit Poll demographic calculations below.

 

Best SPM

The Best SPM is the adjusted estimate computed using actual vote returns for each sampled precinct.

 

Implausible Bush Vote Shares

 

The following analysis shows that the Bush Florida vote was implausible. He needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote, 15% in DRE (TS) counties and a whopping 28% in OS counties.

 

County    Mix    Votes Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

DRE

Dem       41.57% 1.62 84%    15%    1%     1.36   0.24   0.02

Rep       36.13% 1.41 6%     93%    1%     0.08   1.31   0.01

Ind       22.30% 0.87 60%    38%    2%     0.52   0.33   0.02

                                                  

Vote      3.903  3.90 50.5%  48.3%  1.2%   1.97   1.89   0.05

                                                  

OS

Dem       41.15% 1.53 71%    28%    1%     1.08   0.43   0.02

Rep       39.52% 1.47 5%     94%    1%     0.07   1.38   0.01

Ind       19.33% 0.72 60%    38%    2%     0.43   0.27   0.01

                                                  

Vote      3.707  3.71 42.8%  56.0%  1.2%   1.59   2.08   0.04

                                                  

Total

Dem       41.37% 3.15 77.7%  21.3%  1.0%   2.45   0.67   0.03

Rep       37.79% 2.88 5.5%   93.5%  1.0%   0.16   2.69   0.03

Ind       20.85% 1.59 60.0%  38.0%  2.0%   0.95   0.60   0.03

                                                  

Vote      7.610  7.61 46.7%  52.1%  1.2%   3.56   3.96   0.09

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Model I 

Election Calculator

 

Kerry wins by 51.4-48.0%

(260,000 vote margin)

 

Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes                     

                Pct        Cast      Unctd

2004            3.0%       7.813      0.234

2000            2.85%      6.137      0.175

                                    

2004            Share      2000       Share

Kerry           75%        Gore       75%

Bush            23%        Bush       22%

Other           2%         Nader      3%

                                    

2000 Voter Mortality                

Total Voters    1.22%                

Gore share      52%                 

                                    

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004          

Gore            95%                  

Bush            95%                  

Nader           95%                  

 

 

		2000 Recorded							2004 Calculated
Voted	Recorded	Uncounted	Cast	Deaths	Alive		Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV							DNV	2.27	29.0%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	2.91	0.13	3.04	0.16	2.89		95%	2.74	35.1%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	2.91	0.04	2.95	0.14	2.81		95%	2.67	34.2%	9%	91%	0%
Nader	0.14	0.01	0.14	0.01	0.14		95%	0.13	1.6%	64%	19%	17%
Total	5.96	0.17	6.14	0.30	5.84		5.55	7.81	100%	51.41%	48.02%	0.57%
									7.81	4.02	3.75	0.04

 

 

                             

		Kerry Vote Share							Kerry Vote Share
Gore share of		Bush 2000 Turnout:		95.0%			Kerry share of		Bush 2000 voters:		9.0%
Uncounted		Gore Voter Turnout					Gore voters		New voters (DNV in 2000)
51.4%	91%	93%	95%	97%	99%		51.4%	50%	52%	54%	56%	58%
85%	51.0%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%	52.1%		94%	51.6%	52.2%	52.8%	53.4%	54.0%
80%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.8%	52.0%		92%	50.9%	51.5%	52.1%	52.7%	53.3%
75%	50.9%	51.1%	51.4%	51.7%	51.9%		90%	50.2%	50.8%	51.4%	52.0%	52.6%
70%	50.8%	51.1%	51.3%	51.6%	51.9%		88%	49.5%	50.1%	50.7%	51.3%	51.9%
65%	50.7%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.8%		86%	48.8%	49.4%	50.0%	50.6%	51.2%
		Kerry Margin							Kerry Margin
0.26	91%	93%	95%	97%	99%		0.26	50%	52%	54%	56%	58%
85%	0.21	0.25	0.29	0.33	0.38		94%	0.30	0.39	0.48	0.57	0.67
80%	0.19	0.24	0.28	0.32	0.36		92%	0.19	0.28	0.37	0.46	0.56
75%	0.18	0.22	0.26	0.31	0.35		90%	0.08	0.17	0.26	0.35	0.45
70%	0.17	0.21	0.25	0.29	0.33		88%	(0.03)	0.06	0.15	0.25	0.34
65%	0.15	0.20	0.24	0.28	0.32		86%	(0.14)	(0.05)	0.04	0.14	0.23

 

Model II – Adjusted Florida General Exit Poll (Composite)

County Registration Weights and Vote shares

 

Unadjusted Exit Poll

The WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and the recorded vote. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2% (210,000 votes).  

 

Composite Estimate

The Composite is the adjusted weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate. 

 

Florida General (Composite) Exit Poll

Bush won the poll by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes)

 

   Reg    Votes  Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       38%    2.89    86%  13%    1%     2.49   0.38   0.03

Rep       39%    2.97     7%  92%    1%     0.21   2.73   0.03

Ind       23%    1.75    60%  38%    2%     1.05   0.67   0.04

                                                  

Total     7.61   7.61   49.2% 49.6%  1.2%   3.74   3.77   0.09

 

Adjust Exit Poll weights to actual voter registration shares

Kerry wins by 50.7-48.1% (200,000 votes)

 

         

           Mix   Votes Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       41.37% 3.15 86%    13%    1%     2.71   0.41   0.03

Rep       37.79% 2.88 7%     92%    1%     0.20   2.65   0.03

Ind       20.85% 1.59 60%    38%    2%     0.95   0.60   0.03

                                                  

Vote      7.610  7.61 50.73% 48.06% 1.21%  3.86   3.66   0.09

  

 

Adjust to plausible DRE and Opscan county vote shares

Kerry wins by 52.0-46.8% (400,000 votes)

 

DRE       Mix    Votes Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       41.57% 1.62 90%    9%     1%     1.46   0.15   0.02

Rep       36.13% 1.41 7%     92%    1%     0.10   1.30   0.01

Ind       22.30% 0.87 62%    36%    2%     0.54   0.31   0.02

                                                  

Vote      3.903  3.90 53.8%  45.0%  1.2%   2.10   1.76   0.05

                                                  

OS                                                       

Dem       41.15% 1.53 87%    12%    1%     1.33   0.18   0.02

Rep       39.52% 1.47 7%     92%    1%     0.10   1.35   0.01

Ind       19.33% 0.72 60%    38%    2%     0.43   0.27   0.01

                                                  

Vote      3.707  3.71 50.2%  48.6%  1.2%   1.86   1.80   0.04

                                                  

Total                                                    

Dem       41.37% 3.15 88.5%  10.5%  1.0%   2.79   0.33   0.03

Rep       37.79% 2.88 7.0%   92.0%  1.0%   0.20   2.65   0.03

Ind       20.85% 1.59 61.1%  36.9%  2.0%   0.97   0.59   0.03

                                                  

Vote      7.610  7.61 52.0%  46.8%  1.2%   3.96   3.56   0.09

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

 

Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share and margin over a range of TS and OS county registration/vote share scenarios. 

 

If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, then to win the state he needed just 79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties.

 

  Kerry share of DRE county Democrats             

  share   86.0%  88.0%  90.0%  92.0%  94.0%        

  of OS

   Cty       Kerry Vote share                     

   91%    52.0%  52.4%  52.8%  53.2%  53.7%        

   89%    51.6%  52.0%  52.4%  52.8%  53.3%        

 

   87%    51.2%  51.6%  52.0%  52.4%  52.9%        

 

   85%    50.8%  51.2%  51.6%  52.0%  52.5%        

   83%    50.4%  50.8%  51.2%  51.6%  52.1%        

   81%    50.0%  50.4%  50.8%  51.2%  51.7%

   79%    49.6%  50.0%  50.4%  50.8%  51.3%

                                                  

          Kerry Vote margin                       

   91%    0.39   0.46   0.52   0.59   0.65

   89%    0.33   0.39   0.46   0.52   0.59

 

   87%    0.27   0.33   0.40   0.46   0.53

 

   85%    0.21   0.27   0.34   0.40   0.47

   83%    0.15   0.21   0.28   0.34   0.41

   81%    0.09   0.15   0.22   0.28   0.35

   79%    0.02   0.09   0.15   0.22   0.28

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II

 

Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share for various combination shares of Democrats and Independents. 

Kerry wins the state if he captures 84% of Democrats and 58% of independents.

 

Base Case Scenario

 

   Mix    Votes Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       41.37% 3.15   86%    13%    1%     2.71   0.41   0.03

Rep       37.79% 2.88   7%     92%    1%     0.20   2.65   0.03

Ind       20.85% 1.59   60%    38%    2%     0.95   0.60   0.03

                                                  

Vote      7.61  7.61   50.7%  48.1%  1.2%   3.86   3.66   0.09

 

         Kerry % Dem                       

Kerry    84.0% 85.0%   86.0%  87.0%  88.0%

% Ind

              Kerry Vote share                           

64%       50.7%  51.1%  51.6%  52.0%  52.4%

62%       50.3%  50.7%  51.1%  51.6%  52.0%

60%       49.9%  50.3%  50.7%  51.1%  51.6%

58%       49.5%  49.9%  50.3%  50.7%  51.1%

56%       49.1%  49.5%  49.9%  50.3%  50.7%

54%       48.7%  49.1%  49.5%  49.9%  50.3%

                             

             Kerry Vote margin                           

64%       0.20  0.27  0.33  0.39  0.46

62%       0.14  0.20  0.27  0.33  0.39

60%       0.08  0.14  0.20  0.27  0.33

58%       0.01  0.08  0.14  0.20  0.27

56%       (0.05) 0.01  0.08  0.14  0.20

54%       (0.11) (0.05) 0.01  0.08  0.14

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Model III 

Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments                                          

 

Kerry wins by 51.3-48.2%

(241,000 vote margin)

 

Assumptions:

3.0% of total votes cast uncounted

176k uncounted to Kerry (75%)

56k uncounted to Bush (24%)

251k Kerry votes switched to Bush (7%)

 

          Total Kerry   Bush   Other

   Actual 7582   3584   3965   33

   Unctd  234   176     56   2

   Total  7816   3760   4021   35

   Switch 7.0%   251   -251   0

   True   7816   4011   3770   35

   Share  100%   51.3%  48.2%  0.5%

 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Florida Pre-election Polls

 

Kerry was leading the final moving average projection by 51.1-48.8%

 

                                             Projection         Moving Average      

Date      Pollster      Kerry Bush   Nader  Kerry  Bush   Nader  Kerry  Bush

23-May    Zogby           49   48     1      50.4   48.6   1.0          

31-May    Rasmussen       39   51     1      45.3   53.7   1.0          

06-Jun    Zogby           50   48     1      50.7   48.3   1.0          

14-Jun    Survey USA      43   50     1      47.2   51.8   1.0          

17-Jun    Rasmussen       48   44     1      52.9   46.1   1.0          

 

20-Jun    Zogby           46   50     1      48.1   50.9   1.0          

22-Jun    Rasmussen       48   42     1      54.3   44.7   1.0          

23-Jun    ARG             47   46     1      51.2   47.8   1.0          

27-Jun    Quinnipiac     43   43     5      49.3   45.7   5.0          

30-Jun    Rasmussen       48   43     0      54.3   45.7   0.0    50.4   48.3

 

11-Jul    Survey USA      47   44     0      53.3   46.7   0.0    50.7   48.1

15-Jul    ARG             47   44     3      51.2   45.8   3.0    51.3   47.4

21-Jul    LA Times        44   45     2      50.3   47.7   2.0    51.2   47.3

22-Jul    Gallup          46   50     1      48.1   50.9   1.0    51.3   47.2

23-Jul    Zogby           48   49     1      49.4   49.6   1.0    51.0   47.6

 

30-Jul    Zogby           50   47     2      50.7   47.3   2.0    51.2   47.2

05-Aug    ARG             50   43     2      53.5   44.5   2.0    51.1   47.2

10-Aug    Quinnipiac      47   41     4      52.6   43.4   4.0    51.3   46.7

21-Aug    Zogby           50   49     0      50.7   49.3   0.0    51.4   47.1

22-Aug    Gallup          46   48     2      48.8   49.2   2.0    51.2   47.3

 

24-Aug    Rasmussen       47   49     2      48.4   49.6   2.0    50.9   47.5

25-Aug    Research2k      46   46     2      50.2   47.8   2.0    50.6   47.7

11-Sep    Rasmussen       47   48     1      49.8   49.2   1.0    50.3   47.9

14-Sep    Survey USA      45   51     0      47.8   52.2   0.0    50.0   48.4

16-Sep    Rasmussen       47   48     0      50.5   49.5   0.0    50.0   48.5

 

17-Sep    Zogby           48   48     1      50.1   48.9   1.0    50.2   48.4

20-Sep    ARG             46   45     2      50.9   47.1   2.0    50.3   48.2

22-Sep    Gallup          45   47     2      49.2   48.8   2.0    50.2   48.3

26-Sep    Rasmussen       49   48     0      51.1   48.9   0.0    50.0   48.7

27-Sep    Gallup          44   49     2      47.5   50.5   2.0    49.6   49.3

 

29-Sep    Rasmussen       47   50     0      49.1   50.9   0.0    49.5   49.4

03-Oct    Survey USA      46   51     0      48.1   51.9   0.0    49.4   49.6

04-Oct    Rasmussen       46   52     0      47.4   52.6   0.0    49.3   49.9

05-Oct    Mason-Dixon     44   48     0      49.6   50.4   0.0    49.3   50.1

05-Oct    ARG             47   45     2      51.2   46.8   2.0    49.4   49.9

 

05-Oct    Zogby           50   49     1      50.0   49.0   1.0    49.6   49.6

05-Oct    Rasmussen       45   52     0      47.1   52.9   0.0    49.3   49.9

10-Oct    Rasmussen       45   49     0      49.2   50.8   0.0    49.2   50.1

10-Oct    Wash Post       47   47     1      50.5   48.5   1.0    49.2   50.2

14-Oct    Rasmussen       46   48     0      50.2   49.8   0.0    49.3   50.3

 

16-Oct    Mason-Dixon     45   48     0      49.9   50.1   0.0    49.2   50.4

17-Oct    Survey USA      50   49     0      50.7   49.3   0.0    49.4   50.3

18-Oct    Zogby           49   50     0      49.7   50.3   0.0    49.5   50.2

18-Oct    Rasmussen       47   47     0      51.2   48.8   0.0    49.7   49.9

21-Oct    Research 2000   48   47     2      50.1   47.9   2.0    50.0   49.6

 

23-Oct    Rasmussen       48   48     0      50.8   49.2   0.0    50.1   49.5

24-Oct    Survey USA      50   48     0      51.4   48.6   0.0    50.1   49.6

25-Oct    ARG             49   46     0      52.5   47.5   0.0    50.3   49.5

26-Oct    Quinnipiac      44   44     1      51.7   47.3   1.0    50.7   49.0

26-Oct    Rasmussen       48   48     0      50.8   49.2   0.0    50.8   48.9

 

27-Oct    Zogby           46   48     0      50.2   49.8   0.0    50.8   49.0

27-Oct    NY Times        48   47     2      50.1   47.9   2.0    50.8   48.8

28-Oct    Rasmussen       46   49     0      49.5   50.5   0.0    50.7   48.9

29-Oct    Mason-Dixon     45   49     0      49.2   50.8   0.0    50.6   49.0

29-Oct    Zogby           47   45     0      52.6   47.4   0.0    50.8   48.7

 

29-Oct    Rasmussen       47   48     0      50.5   49.5   0.0    50.8   48.8

30-Oct    Gallup          49   45     0      53.2   46.8   0.0    51.0   48.7

30-Oct    Zogby           49   47     0      51.8   48.2   0.0    51.1   48.6

30-Oct    Rasmussen       47   49     0      49.8   50.2   0.0    51.0   48.8

31-Oct    Opinion Dyn     49   44     1      53.2   45.8   1.0    51.1   48.6

 

31-Oct    Survey USA      48   49     0      50.1   49.9   0.0    50.9   48.8

31-Oct    Zogby           48   47     0      51.5   48.5   0.0    51.0   48.8

31-Oct    Rasmussen       47   50     0      49.1   50.9   0.0    50.9   48.9

01-Nov    ARG             50   48     0      51.4   48.6   0.0    51.0   48.9

01-Nov    Zogby           48   48     0      50.8   49.2   0.0    51.1   48.8

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Florida 2004 Exit Poll (Composite)

 

Party-ID (2743 respondents)

                                        

   Mix    Votes  Kerry  Bush   Other  Kerry  Bush   Other

Dem       38%    2.89    86%  13%    1%     2.49   0.38   0.03

Rep       39%    2.97     7%  92%    1%     0.21   2.73   0.03

Ind       23%    1.75    60%  38%    2%     1.05   0.67   0.04

                                                  

Total     7.61   7.61   49.2% 49.6%  1.2%   3.74   3.77   0.09

 

Adjusted to party registration weights

 

Dem       41.37% 3.15    86%  13%    1%     2.71   0.41   0.03

Rep       37.79% 2.88     7%  92%    1%     0.20   2.65   0.03

Ind       20.85% 1.59    60%  38%    2%     0.95   0.60   0.03

                                                  

Vote      7.610  7.61   50.7% 48.1%  1.2%   3.86   3.66   0.09

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Bush Approval (2409)    

 

Approval  Pct   Kerry   Bush Other                

Strong       35     4      96    0                

Approve      18     17     82    1

Disapprove   12     84     13    3

Strong       35     98      1    1

 

Total         100   48.8   50.3   0.9

                   3720   3828   69

 

Adjusted to 48.5% average approval

 

Strong     33.0    4    96    0                   

Approve    15.5   17    82    1

Disapprove 14.5   84    13    3

Strong     37.0   98     1    1

 

Total      100    52.4   46.7   0.9

  7610   3988   3554   69        

 

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

When Decided (2162)

 

Decided Pct     Kerry  Bush   Other

3days       8    53     45     2

Week        3    70     27     3

Month     12    61     38     1

Before    77    46     54     0

                      

Total     100    49.1   50.6   0.4

          7610   3735   3847   28

 

 

Adjusted 30+days to 50/50

 

3days     8     53     45     2

Week      3     70     27     3

Month     12     61     38     1

Before    77     50     50     0

                      

Total     100    52.2   47.5   0.4

          7610   3969   3612   28

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Florida Exit Poll Demographics

 

         Mix    KERRY   BUSH   Other  Bush change from 2000

GENDER                              

Male      46     47     52     1      -2 Males shifted to Kerry from Bush?

Female    54     52     48     0      +3 Females shifted to Bush from Gore?

TOTAL     100    49.7   49.8   0.5   

                             

GENDER/RACE                                

WMale     33     42     57     1     

WFem      38     46     53     1     

NWMale    13     59     40     1     

NWFem     16     64     36     0     

TOTAL     100    49.3   49.9   0.8   

                             

RACE                                

White     70     44     55     1      -2 Whites move away from Bush?

Black     12     87     12     1      +5 Blacks shifted to Bush by 5%?

Hisp      15     46     54     0      +5 Hispanics shifted to Bush by 5%?

Asian     1     -      -      -     

Other     2     34     66     -     

TOTAL     100    48.8   49.4   0.8   

 

AGE                                 

18-29    17     60     39     1      -1

30-44    27     48     51     1      +1

45-59    28     44     55     1      +6 Baby boomers for Bush?

60+      28     49     50     1      -1

TOTAL   100     49.2   49.8   1.0   

                             

18-64    81     49     50     1      2

65+      19     51     49     0      -3

TOTAL   100     49.4   49.8   0.8   

 

                             

INCOME                              

<15k      9      61     38     1     

15-30     15     61     37     2     

30-50     22     53     46     1     

50-75     21     47     52     1     

75-100    14    40     60     0     

100-150   10    46     54     0     

150-200   4     41     58     1     

200+      5     43     56     1     

TOTAL     100    50.2   48.9   0.9   

                             

<50k      46     57     42     1     

50k+      54     44     55     1     

TOTAL     100    50.0   49.0   1.0   

                             

50-100    81    52     48     0     

100+      19     44     56     0     

TOTAL    100    50.5   49.5   0

                             

                             

EDUCATION                           

NoHS      3      55     43     2      -4

HighS     20     53     47     0      5  Big Bush gain in HS Grads while losing the other 80%?

Coll      34     50     49     1      0

ColG      27     46     54     0      -3

PostG     16     48     51     1      -1

TOTAL     100    49.3   50.1   0.6   

                             

COLLEGE                             

No        57     52     48     0

Yes       43     46     53     1     

TOTAL     100    49.4   50.2   0.4   

                      

IDEOLOGY                            

Liber     20     82     16     2      -1

Moder     47     59     41     0      -5 Big Moderate shift to Kerry

Cons      33     14     85     1      8 Conservatives overwhelmed the Libs and Mods?

TOTAL     100    48.8   50.5   0.7   

                             

FIRST-TIME VOTER                           

Yes       13     58     41     1     

No        87     48     51     1

TOTAL     100    49.3   49.7   1.0   

                             

RELIGION                            

Protestant 51   42     57     1      2

Catholic  27    45    55     0       2

Jewish    6     81     19     0      0

Other     6     71     28     1      -12

None      10    68     30     2      4   Atheists for Bush?

TOTAL     100   49.5   49.7   0.8   

                             

FINANCIAL SITUATION                               

Better    34     16     84     0      48

Worse     28     87     12     1      -50

Same      38     51     48     1      -16

TOTAL     100    49.2   50.2   0.6   

                             

DID CANDIDATE CALL YOU?                           

Kerry     16     81     18     1     

Bush      15     13     86     1     

Both      20     57     43     1     

None      49     48     51     1     

TOTAL     100    49.8   49.4   1.0   

 

                             

POPULATION- 5 CATEGORIES                                 

Urban     7      35     65     0

50-500k   19     50     49     1

Suburb    61     52     47     0

10-50k   9      45     54     1

Rural     4      34     66     0

TOTAL     100    49.7   50.0   0.3   

 

                             

POPULATION- 3 CATEGORIES                                 

Urban     26     46     53     1      4 Bush Urban Legend?

Suburb    61     52     48     0      1

Rural     13     42     57     1      1

TOTAL     100    49.1   50.5   0.4   

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

2000 Recorded Vote by County

 

County       Precincts    Total    Gore     Bush   Buchanan   Nader    Other    Gore     Bush    Buchanan      Nader

Totals           5884     5963     2912     2913     17       97       24       48.83%   48.85%   0.29%        1.63%

                                                                                               

Alachua          53       86       47       34       0        3        1        55.2%    39.8%    0.3%         3.8%

Baker            8        8        2        6        0        0        0        29.3%    68.8%    0.9%         0.6%

Bay              47       59       19       39       0        1        0        32.1%    65.7%    0.4%         1.4%

Bradford         21       9        3        5        0        0        0        35.5%    62.4%    0.7%         1.0%

Brevard          177      218      97       115      1        4        1        44.6%    52.7%    0.3%         2.0%

 

Broward          618      573      387      177      1        7        2        67.4%    30.9%    0.1%         1.2%

Calhoun          13       5        2        3        0        0        0        41.7%    55.5%    1.7%         0.8%

Charlotte        63       67       30       35       0        1        0        44.3%    53.0%    0.3%         2.2%

Citrus           35       57       26       30       0        1        0        44.6%    52.0%    0.5%         2.4%

Clay             51       57       15       42       0        1        0        25.5%    72.8%    0.3%         1.0%

 

Collier          96       92       30       60       0        1        0        32.5%    65.6%    0.1%         1.5%

Columbia         31       19       7        11       0        0        0        38.1%    59.2%    0.5%         1.4%

Miami-Dade       614      625      329      290      1        5        1        52.6%    46.3%    0.1%         0.9%

DeSoto           15       8        3        4        0        0        0        42.5%    54.5%    0.5%         2.0%

Dixie            11       5        2        3        0        0        0        39.1%    57.8%    0.6%         1.6%

 

Duval            268      265      108      152      1        3        1        40.8%    57.5%    0.2%         1.0%

Escambia         108      117      41       73       1        2        0        35.1%    62.6%    0.4%         1.5%

Flagler          27       27       14       13       0        0        0        51.3%    46.5%    0.3%         1.6%

Franklin         8        5        2        2        0        0        0        44.1%    52.8%    0.7%         1.8%

Gadsden          16       15       10       5        0        0        0        66.1%    32.4%    0.3%         0.9%

 

Gilchrist        10       5        2        3        0        0        0        35.4%    61.2%    0.5%         1.8%

Glades           13       3        1        2        0        0        0        42.9%    54.7%    0.3%         1.7%

Gulf             14       6        2        4        0        0        0        39.0%    57.8%    1.2%         1.4%

Hamilton         8        4        2        2        0        0        0        43.4%    54.1%    0.6%         0.9%

Hardee           12       6        2        4        0        0        0        37.5%    60.4%    0.5%         1.2%

 

Hendry           22       8        3        5        0        0        0        39.8%    58.3%    0.3%         1.3%

Hernando         51       65       33       31       0        2        0        50.1%    47.0%    0.4%         2.3%

Highlands        28       35       14       20       0        1        0        40.3%    57.5%    0.4%         1.6%

Hillsboro        320      360      170      181      1        7        2        47.1%    50.2%    0.2%         2.1%

Holmes           16       7        2        5        0        0        0        29.4%    67.8%    1.0%         1.3%

 

Indian River     41       50       20       29       0        1        0        39.8%    57.7%    0.2%         1.9%

Jackson          27       16       7        9        0        0        0        42.1%    56.1%    0.6%         0.8%

Jefferson        13       6        3        2        0        0        0        53.9%    43.9%    0.5%         1.3%

Lafayette        5        3        1        2        0        0        0        31.5%    66.7%    0.4%         1.0%

Lake             86       89       37       50       0        1        0        41.3%    56.5%    0.3%         1.6%

 

Lee             150       184      74       106      0        4        1        39.9%    57.6%    0.2%         1.9%

Leon             95       103      61       39       0        2        0        59.6%    37.9%    0.3%         1.9%

Levy             21       13       5        7        0        0        0        42.4%    53.9%    0.5%         2.2%

Liberty          8        2        1        1        0        0        0        42.2%    54.6%    1.6%         0.8%

Madison          11       6        3        3        0        0        0        48.9%    49.3%    0.5%         0.9%

 

Manatee          135      110      49       58       0        2        0        44.6%    52.6%    0.2%         2.3%

Marion           96       103      45       55       1        2        1        43.4%    53.6%    0.5%         1.8%

Martin           40       62       27       34       0        1        0        42.9%    54.8%    0.2%         1.8%

Monroe           33       34       16       16       0        1        0        48.7%    47.4%    0.1%         3.2%

Nassau           21       24       7        16       0        0        0        29.2%    69.0%    0.4%         1.1%

 

Okaloosa         48       71       17       52       0        1        0        24.0%    73.7%    0.4%         1.4%

Okeechobee       18       10       5        5        0        0        0        46.6%    51.3%    0.4%         1.3%

Orange           232      280      140      135      0        4        1        50.1%    48.1%    0.0%         1.4%

Osceola          66       56       28       26       0        1        0        50.6%    47.1%    0.3%         1.3%

Palm Beach       531      433      270      153      3        6        2        62.3%    35.3%    0.8%         1.3%

 

Pasco            132      143      70       69       1        3        1        48.7%    48.0%    0.4%         2.4%

Pinellas         345      398      201      185      1        10       2        50.3%    46.4%    0.3%         2.5%

Polk             163      169      75       90       1        2        1        44.6%    53.6%    0.3%         1.2%

Putnam           50       26       12       13       0        0        0        46.2%    51.3%    0.6%         1.4%

St. Johns        57       61       20       40       0        1        0        32.1%    65.1%    0.4%         2.0%

 

St. Lucie        78       78       42       35       0        1        0        53.3%    44.5%    0.2%         1.8%

Santa Rosa       36       50       13       36       0        1        0        25.4%    72.1%    0.6%         1.4%

Sarasota         142      161      73       83       0        4        1        45.3%    51.6%    0.2%         2.5%

Seminole         133      138      59       76       0        2        1        43.0%    55.0%    0.1%         1.4%

Sumter           24       22       10       12       0        0        0        43.3%    54.5%    0.5%         1.4%

 

Suwannee         16       12       4        8        0        0        0        32.8%    64.4%    0.9%         1.4%

Taylor           14       7        3        4        0        0        0        38.9%    59.6%    0.4%         0.9%

Union            11       4        1        2        0        0        0        36.8%    61.0%    0.9%         0.9%

Volusia          172      184      97       82       0        3        1        53.0%    44.8%    0.3%         1.6%

Wakulla          12       9        4        5        0        0        0        44.7%    52.5%    0.5%         1.7%

 

Walton           33       18       6        12       0        0        0        30.8%    66.5%    0.7%         1.4%

Washington       15       8        3        5        0        0        0        34.9%    62.3%    1.1%         1.2%

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

2000 Recorded Vote by County

Adjusted for 175,000 uncounted ballots  

(2.85% of 6138k total votes cast)

 

Uncounted Votes (000):

Gore      126.3   72.1%

Bush       45.0   25.7

Nader       2.6    1.5

Buchanan    0.5    0.3

Other       0.7    0.4

Total     175.1   100%

 

Allocating the uncounted ballots, Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes (49.5-48.2%).

This is a conservative estimate as it does not include butterfly ballots or electronic vote miscounts.

 

                Unctd     Total    Unctd%     Adjusted Count (total votes cast)         Adjusted Vote Share

                Total     Cast     Total    Gore     Bush    Buchanan   Nader   Other     Gore     Bush

                 175      6138     2.85%    3039     2958      18       100      23      49.51%   48.19%

                                                                                      

Alachua          0.33     86       0.38%    48       34        0.3      3.2      0.8     55.3%    39.8%

Baker            0.14     8        1.69%    2        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.1%    68.1%

Bay              0.66     59       1.11%    19       39        0.2      0.8      0.2     32.5%    65.3%

Bradford         0.73     9        7.80%    4        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     38.3%    59.6%

Brevard          1.03     219      0.47%    98       115       0.6      4.5      0.9     44.7%    52.6%

 

Broward          14.61    588      2.48%    397      181       0.8      7.3      1.7     67.5%    30.8%

Calhoun          0.08     5        1.49%    2        3         0.1      0.0      0.0     42.1%    55.1%

Charlotte        3.16     70       4.51%    32       36        0.2      1.5      0.2     45.6%    51.7%

Citrus           0.22     57       0.38%    26       30        0.3      1.4      0.3     44.7%    51.9%

Clay              0.15    58       0.27%    15       42        0.2      0.6      0.2     25.6%    72.6%

 

Collier          3.18     95       3.34%    32       61        0.1      1.4      0.3     33.8%    64.3%

Columbia         0.69     19       3.61%    8        11        0.1      0.3      0.2     39.3%    58.0%

Miami-Dade       28.60    654      4.37%    349      297       0.6      5.8      1.3     53.4%    45.4%

DeSoto           0.70     9        8.24%    4        4         0.0      0.2      0.0     45.0%    52.2%

Dixie            0.33     5        6.64%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.3%    55.7%

 

Duval            26.91    292      9.23%    127      159       0.7      3.2      1.4     43.7%    54.5%

Escambia         4.37     121      3.61%    44       74        0.5      1.8      0.5     36.4%    61.3%

Flagler          0.06     27       0.23%    14       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     51.3%    46.5%

Franklin         0.42     5        8.28%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     46.4%    50.6%

Gadsden          2.07     17       12.3%    11       5         0.0      0.2      0.1     66.8%    31.5%

 

Gilchrist        0.29     6        5.07%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.1     37.3%    59.4%

Glades           0.37     4        9.98%    2        2         0.0      0.1      0.0     45.8%    51.8%

Gulf              0.41    7        6.27%    3        4         0.1      0.1      0.0     41.1%    55.8%

Hamilton         0.39     4        8.94%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     46.0%    51.6%

Hardee           0.41     7        6.14%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     39.7%    58.3%

 

Hendry           0.80     9        8.95%    4        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     42.7%    55.4%

Hernando         0.25     65       0.38%    33       31        0.2      1.5      0.2     50.1%    46.9%

Highlands        1.01     36       2.79%    15       20        0.1      0.6      0.1     41.2%    56.6%

Hillsboro        9.17     369      2.48%    176      183       0.9      7.6      1.7     47.7%    49.6%

Holmes           0.14     8        1.84%    2        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.2%    67.0%

 

Indian River     1.94     52       3.76%    21       29        0.1      1.0      0.2     41.1%    56.5%

Jackson          1.16     17       6.63%    8        9         0.1      0.2      0.1     44.1%    54.0%

Jefferson        0.57     6        9.22%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     55.6%    42.2%

Lafayette        0.17     3        6.39%    1        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     34.1%    64.0%

Lake             3.61     92       3.92%    39       51        0.3      1.5      0.3     42.5%    55.2%

 

Lee              4.57     189      2.42%    77       107       0.3      3.7      0.8     40.7%    56.8%

Leon             0.18     103      0.18%    62       39        0.3      1.9      0.4     59.6%    37.9%

Levy             0.76     13       5.64%    6        7         0.1      0.3      0.1     44.1%    52.3%

Liberty          0.19     3        7.24%    1        1         0.0      0.0      0.0     44.4%    52.6%

Madison          0.48     7        7.23%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     50.6%    47.6%

 

Manatee          1.41     112      1.26%    50       58        0.3      2.5      0.3     45.0%    52.2%

Marion           3.35     106      3.15%    47       56        0.6      1.9      0.8     44.3%    52.7%

Martin           0.61     63       0.97%    27       34        0.1      1.1      0.2     43.2%    54.5%

Monroe           0.18     34       0.53%    17       16        0.0      1.1      0.2     48.8%    47.3%

Nassau           1.58     25       6.28%    8        17        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.9%    66.3%

 

Okaloosa         0.77     71       1.07%    17       52        0.3      1.0      0.4     24.5%    73.2%

Okeechobee       0.86     11       8.01%    5        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     48.6%    49.3%

Orange           2.40     278      0.86%    142      135       0.0      3.9      1.1     50.3%    47.9%

Osceola          1.68     57       2.94%    29       27        0.1      0.8      0.4     51.3%    46.5%

Palm Beach       29.70    457      6.49%    291      161       3.5      6.0      1.6     62.9%    34.7%

 

Pasco            3.92     147      2.67%    72       70        0.6      3.5      0.6     49.4%    47.5%

Pinellas         8.49     407      2.09%    207      187       1.0      10.1     2.0     50.8%    46.0%

Polk             0.90     170      0.53%    76       91        0.5      2.1      0.5     44.7%    53.4%

Putnam           0.17     26       0.64%    12       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     46.3%    51.1%

St. Johns        3.24     64       5.06%    22       40        0.2      1.3      0.3     34.1%    63.1%

 

St. Lucie        0.34     78       0.43%    42       35        0.1      1.4      0.2     53.4%    44.4%

Santa Rosa       0.37     51       0.72%    13       36        0.3      0.7      0.2     25.8%    71.8%

Sarasota         0.56     162      0.35%    73       83        0.3      4.1      0.6     45.4%    51.5%

Seminole         0.65     138      0.47%    60       76        0.2      2.0      0.6     43.1%    54.8%

Sumter           0.76     23       3.31%    10       12        0.1      0.3      0.1     44.2%    53.5%

 

Suwannee         0.73     13       5.56%    5        8         0.1      0.2      0.1     34.9%    62.2%

Taylor           0.60     7        8.09%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.6%    56.8%

Union            0.26     4        6.32%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     39.0%    58.8%

Volusia          0.50     184      0.27%    98       82        0.5      2.9      0.6     53.0%    44.8%

Wakulla          0.42     9        4.68%    4        5         0.0      0.2      0.0     46.0%    51.3%

 

Walton           0.22     19       1.18%    6        12        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.3%    66.0%

Washington       0.33     8        3.94%    3        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     36.4%    60.8%

 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

County Vote changes from 2000 by Machine Type

 

                   2000                     2004                 Vote Change          Bush Incr Machine

............    Vote   GORE   BUSH   OTHER  Vote   KERRY  BUSH   OTHER  KERRY  BUSH   OTHER Margin Incidents

DRE              3078   53.9%  44.7%  1.4%   3835   51.3%  47.8%  0.9%   342    443    -27    5.7%   231

Optiscan         2831   44.2%  54.2%  1.6%   3728   42.3%  57.0%  0.7%   323    602    -28    4.7%   81

Total           5909   48.8%  48.8%  2.3%   7563   47.1%  52.1%  0.8%   664    1045   -55    5.0%   312

                                                                                    

DRE                                                                                        

Broward         571    67.7%  31.1%  1.2%   700    64.6%  34.8%  0.5%   65.8   66.4   -3.3   6.8%   56

Charlotte       67     44.6%  53.2%  2.2%   79     43.2%  56.1%  0.7%   4.6    9.0    -0.9   4.2%   0

Collier         92     32.6%  65.9%  1.5%   128    34.2%  65.3%  0.5%   13.8   23.1   -0.8   -2.1%  0

Miami-Dade      624    52.7%  46.4%  0.9%   767    53.0%  46.8%  0.3%   77.3   69.1   -3.4   0.1%   54

Hillsboro       358    47.4%  50.5%  2.1%   460    46.4%  53.2%  0.4%   43.9   63.8   -5.5   3.7%   21

 

Indian River    49     40.1%  58.0%  1.9%   61     39.2%  60.3%  0.5%   4.2    8.2    -0.7   3.2%   0

Lafayette       2      31.8%  67.2%  1.0%   3      25.5%  74.2%  0.3%   0.1    0.8    0.0    13.3%  0

Lake             88     41.5%  56.8%  1.7%   123    39.1%  60.3%  0.5%   11.6   24.4   -0.8   6.0%   3

Martin          62     43.1%  55.0%  1.8%   72     42.0%  57.5%  0.6%   3.6    7.4    -0.7   3.6%   1

Nassau          23     29.4%  69.5%  1.1%   32     26.3%  73.1%  0.6%   1.7    7.5    -0.1   6.6%   0

 

Palm Beach      423    63.8%  36.2%  0.0%   541    60.6%  39.2%  0.3%   58.0   58.9   1.6    6.2%   88

Pasco           142    49.1%  48.5%  2.4%   189    44.7%  54.5%  0.8%   15.2   34.6   -2.0   10.4%  0

Pinellas        395    50.7%  46.7%  2.5%   453    49.7%  49.8%  0.5%   24.7   40.8   -7.6   4.1%   6

Sarasota        160    45.5%  51.9%  2.5%   194    45.5%  53.9%  0.6%   15.5   21.5   -2.8   2.0%   2

Sumter          22     43.7%  54.9%  1.4%   32     36.6%  62.6%  0.8%   1.9    7.7    -0.1   14.7%  0

                                                                                    

OPTISCAN                                                                                   

Alachua         85     55.9%  40.3%  3.8%   111    56.4%  43.1%  0.5%   15.0   13.5   -2.7   2.3%   0

Baker           8      29.7%  69.6%  0.7%   10     21.9%  77.8%  0.2%   -0.2   2.1    0.0    16.0%  0

Bay              58     32.3%  66.3%  1.4%   75     28.2%  71.4%  0.5%   2.2    14.8   -0.5   9.3%   0

Bradford        9      35.9%  63.2%  1.0%   11     30.0%  69.8%  0.3%   0.2    2.1    -0.1   12.5%  0

Brevard         217    44.9%  53.1%  2.1%   264    41.7%  57.9%  0.5%   12.8   37.7   -3.3   7.9%   4

 

Calhoun         5      42.5%  56.7%  0.8%   6      35.7%  63.7%  0.6%   0.0    0.9    0.0    13.9%  0

Citrus          57     45.0%  52.5%  2.4%   69     42.3%  57.1%  0.7%   3.7    9.7    -0.9   7.3%   0

Clay             57     25.7%  73.3%  1.0%   81     23.3%  76.4%  0.3%   4.3    20.1   -0.3   5.4%   0

Columbia        18     38.6%  60.0%  1.4%   25     32.3%  67.3%  0.4%   1.0    5.8    -0.1   13.6%  0

De Soto         8      42.9%  55.0%  2.0%   9      41.3%  58.2%  0.5%   0.6    1.3    -0.1   4.8%   0

 

Dixie           5      39.7%  58.7%  1.6%   6      30.5%  69.0%  0.5%   0.1    1.7    0.0    19.6%  0

Duval           263    41.1%  57.9%  1.0%   379    41.8%  57.9%  0.3%   50.3   67.2   -1.5   -0.7%  12

Escambia        116    35.4%  63.1%  1.5%   142    33.9%  65.7%  0.4%   7.3    20.4   -1.2   4.0%   1

Flagler         27     51.6%  46.8%  1.6%   38     48.4%  51.1%  0.5%   4.7    7.0    -0.3   7.5%   0

Franklin        5      44.6%  53.5%  1.9%   6      40.6%  58.8%  0.6%   0.4    1.0    0.0    9.2%   0

 

Gadsden         15     66.5%  32.6%  0.9%   21     69.9%  29.9%  0.3%   4.9    1.5    -0.1   -6.1%  1

Gilchrist       5      36.0%  62.2%  1.8%   7      28.9%  70.7%  0.5%   0.1    1.6    -0.1   15.6%  0

Glades          3      43.2%  55.1%  1.7%   4      41.1%  58.5%  0.4%   0.3    0.6    0.0    5.4%   0

Gulf             6      39.7%  58.8%  1.4%   7      33.2%  66.3%  0.6%   0.0    1.2    0.0    14.0%  0

Hamilton        4      44.1%  55.0%  0.9%   5      44.6%  55.1%  0.3%   0.5    0.6    0.0    -0.4%  0

 

Hardee          6      37.9%  60.9%  1.2%   7      29.7%  69.8%  0.5%   -0.2   1.3    0.0    17.0%  0

Hendry          8      40.0%  58.7%  1.3%   10     40.7%  59.1%  0.2%   0.7    1.0    -0.1   -0.2%  0

Hernando        65     50.4%  47.3%  2.3%   79     46.3%  53.1%  0.6%   3.9    11.2   -1.0   9.8%   0

Highlands       35     40.6%  57.9%  1.6%   41     37.1%  62.5%  0.5%   1.2    5.7    -0.4   8.1%   0

Holmes          7      29.9%  68.8%  1.3%   8      21.9%  77.6%  0.5%   -0.4   1.4    -0.1   16.8%  0

 

Jackson         16     42.5%  56.6%  0.9%   20     38.3%  61.4%  0.4%   0.7    3.0    -0.1   9.1%   0

Jefferson       6      54.4%  44.3%  1.4%   7      55.4%  44.2%  0.4%   1.1    0.8    0.0    -1.1%  0

Lee              183    40.1%  57.9%  2.0%   240    39.3%  60.1%  0.6%   20.8   38.3   -2.2   3.1%   0

Leon             102    60.0%  38.1%  1.9%   136    61.7%  38.0%  0.4%   22.4   12.5   -1.5   -1.9%  26

Levy             13     43.0%  54.7%  2.3%   17     36.6%  62.8%  0.6%   0.7    3.6    -0.2   14.5%  0

 

Liberty         2      43.2%  56.0%  0.8%   3      35.5%  64.0%  0.5%   0.1    0.6    0.0    15.7%  0

Madison         6      49.4%  49.8%  0.9%   8      48.9%  50.6%  0.5%   1.0    1.2    0.0    1.4%   0

Manatee         110    44.9%  52.9%  2.3%   143    42.8%  56.8%  0.5%   12.1   23.3   -1.8   6.0%   0

Marion          102    44.0%  54.3%  1.8%   139    41.1%  58.4%  0.5%   12.6   26.1   -1.2   6.9%   2

Monroe          34     49.0%  47.7%  3.2%   39     49.9%  49.4%  0.7%   3.2    3.4    -0.8   0.8%   0

 

Okaloosa        70     24.2%  74.4%  1.4%   89     21.7%  77.9%  0.4%   2.4    17.6   -0.6   6.1%   0

Okeechobee      10     46.9%  51.7%  1.3%   12     42.3%  57.4%  0.3%   0.6    1.9    -0.1   10.3%  0

Orange          275    51.0%  49.0%  0.0%   387    50.0%  49.7%  0.3%   53.0   57.9   1.1    1.9%   16

Osceola         55     51.1%  47.6%  1.3%   82     47.1%  52.6%  0.3%   10.4   16.9   -0.5   9.0%   1

Polk             168    44.9%  53.9%  1.2%   210    40.9%  58.7%  0.4%   10.8   33.2   -1.3   8.8%   5

 

Putnam          26     46.7%  51.9%  1.5%   31     40.2%  59.3%  0.4%   0.3    4.9    -0.2   13.9%  1

St. Johns       60     32.4%  65.6%  2.0%   86     30.7%  68.8%  0.5%   6.9    19.6   -0.8   4.9%   0

St. Lucie       78     53.5%  44.7%  1.8%   100    51.9%  47.7%  0.4%   10.3   12.9   -0.9   4.6%   0

Santa Rosa      50     25.7%  72.8%  1.5%   67     21.9%  77.7%  0.4%   1.8    15.7   -0.4   8.7%   0

Seminole        137    43.3%  55.3%  1.4%   186    41.4%  58.2%  0.3%   17.8   32.4   -1.4   4.7%   4

 

Suwannee        12     33.2%  65.3%  1.5%   16     28.7%  70.8%  0.5%   0.4    3.1    -0.1   10.0%  0

Taylor          7      39.2%  60.0%  0.9%   9      35.6%  63.9%  0.5%   0.4    1.4    0.0    7.4%   0

Union           4      37.3%  61.8%  0.9%   5      26.8%  72.8%  0.3%   -0.2   1.1    0.0    21.5%  0

Volusia         183    53.3%  45.1%  1.6%   228    50.6%  49.0%  0.4%   18.0   29.2   -2.0   6.5%   8

Wakulla         8      45.2%  53.1%  1.8%   12     41.8%  57.8%  0.4%   1.1    2.3    -0.1   8.1%   0

 

Walton          18     31.2%  67.3%  1.5%   24     26.0%  73.5%  0.5%   0.6    5.4    -0.1   11.3%  0

Washington      8      35.5%  63.3%  1.2%   10     28.2%  71.3%  0.5%   0.1    2.4    0.0    15.3%  0

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Democratic County Vote and Registration Share Trend

(1992-2004)

 

V= Vote share

R = Registration share

VR = 100*V/R 

 

 

Weighted        V92     V96    V00    V04    R96    R00    R04    VR96   VR00   VR04

DRE             42.3   52.7   53.3   51.3   44.5   42.0   41.6   118    127    125

Optiscan        35.1   42.5   43.4   42.3   51.1   47.8   41.2   83     91     102

 

Total           38.9   47.8   48.8   47.1   47.7   44.8   41.4   100    109    114

                                                                      

                                                                      

DRE                                                                          

Broward         52     64     67     65     53     51     50     121    131    129

Charlotte       37     43     44     43     36     34     32     119    129    135

Collier         26     32     32     34     25     24     24     128    133    143

Miami-Dade      47     57     53     53     48     44     43     119    120    123

Hillsboro       37     47     47     46     48     44     42     98     107    110

 

Indian River    28     37     40     39     33     31     30     112    129    131

Lafayette       33     40     41     25     37     36     34     108    114    75

Lake            32     40     40     39     34     32     30     118    125    130

Martin          28     38     43     42     28     27     28     136    159    150

Nassau          30     34     29     26     56     48     37     61     60     71

 

Palm Beach      46     58     62     61     46     45     45     126    138    135

Pasco           39     50     49     45     43     40     37     116    123    121

Pinellas        38     49     50     50     39     37     38     126    135    131

Sarasota        35     43     45     45     31     31     31     139    145    147

Sumter          41     46     43     37     57     48     41     81     90     89

                                                                      

OPTISCAN                                                                     

Alachua         50     54     55     56     57     53     51     95     104    111

Baker           29     34     29     22     89     83     69     38     35     32

Bay             28     33     32     28     54     48     39     61     67     72

Bradford        37     41     35     30     77     70     61     53     50     49

Brevard         31     41     45     42     40     38     37     103    118    113

 

Calhoun         37     43     42     36     91     88     82     47     48     43

Citrus          36     44     45     42     46     41     39     96     110    108

Clay            23     28     26     23     31     29     26     90     90     90

Columbia        37     41     38     32     68     64     57     60     59     57

DeSoto          36     43     43     41     70     64     59     61     67     70

 

Dixie           43     46     39     31     89     86     77     52     45     40

Duval           37     44     41     42     54     50     46     81     82     91

Escambia        31     35     35     34     51     46     41     69     76     83

Flagler         41     48     51     48     42     40     38     114    128    127

Franklin        35     46     44     41     87     81     77     53     54     53

 

Gadsden         59     66     66     70     88     85     83     75     78     84

Gilchrist       38     41     35     29     78     72     59     53     49     49

Glades          39     45     43     41     76     69     65     59     62     63

Gulf            33     41     39     33     84     79     67     49     49     49

Hamilton        44     47     43     45     91     86     79     52     50     56

 

Hardee          31     39     38     30     79     73     64     49     52     46

Hendry          34     44     40     41     66     63     57     67     63     71

Hernando        39     49     50     46     42     40     39     117    125    119

Highlands       35     42     40     37     45     42     40     93     95     93

Holmes          29     34     29     22     90     83     73     38     35     30

 

Jackson         37     43     42     38     82     79     72     52     53     53

Jefferson       49     53     54     55     83     79     72     64     68     77

Lee             34     36     31     39     94     89     83     38     35     47

Leon            49     55     60     62     61     59     57     90     102    108

Levy            40     45     42     37     72     67     60     63     63     61

 

Liberty         32     40     42     36     96     94     88     42     45     40

Madison         45     50     49     49     86     84     80     58     58     61

Manatee         34     43     45     43     37     35     33     116    129    130

Marion          36     41     43     41     45     42     40     91     102    103

Monroe          36     47     49     50     44     39     36     107    126    139

 

Okaloosa        20     26     24     22     32     28     25     81     86     87

Okeechobee      37     49     47     42     69     65     58     71     72     73

Orange          35     46     50     50     41     41     40     112    122    125

Osceola         33     47     51     47     44     42     40     107    121    118

Polk            35     44     45     41     50     46     43     88     98     95

 

Putnam          42     48     46     40     67     63     58     72     73     69

St. Johns       31     34     32     31     39     34     28     87     94     110

St. Lucie       35     49     53     52     44     41     41     111    129    127

Santa Rosa      20     26     25     22     44     35     28     59     71     78

Seminole        30     39     43     41     35     33     32     111    130    130

 

Suwannee        35     37     33     29     76     71     64     49     46     45

Taylor          36     45     39     36     87     82     76     52     48     47

Union           35     40     37     27     91     84     75     44     44     36

Volusia         42     49     53     51     46     43     41     107    123    123

Wakulla         35     43     45     42     80     74     67     54     61     62

 

Walton          29     34     31     26     63     53     37     54     58     70

Washington      32     38     35     28     82     74     67     46     47     42

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

         

Democratic and Republican Registration Shares

 

                 1996                 2000                 2004                 1996   2000   2004

                 Dem    Rep           Dem    Rep           Dem    Rep           Democratic Margin

Vote Share      47.8   42.3          48.8   48.8          47.1   52.1          5.5    0.0    (5.0)

Reg. Share      47.7   39.8          44.8   38.2          41.4   37.8          7.9    6.6    4.6

 

VoteSh/RegSh    100.0  106.3         108.9  127.7         113.8  137.8         (6.3)  (18.8) (24.0)

 

Registration Share

DRE             44.5   41.6          42.0   39.1          41.6   36.1          2.9    2.9    4.5

Optical Scan    51.0   37.8          47.7   37.2          41.2   39.5          13.2   10.5   1.7

                                                                                    

County Registration Share

DRE

Broward          53     33            51     30            50     27            20     21     23

Charlotte       36     52            34     48            32     45            (16)   (14)   (13)

Collier         25     62            24     57            24     53            (37)   (33)   (29)

Miami-Dade      48     39            44     38            43     35            9      6      8

Hillsboro       48     38            44     37            42     35            10     7      7

 

Indian River    33     57            31     54            30     51            (24)   (23)   (21)

Lafayette       37     51            36     49            34     47            (14)   (13)   (13)

Lake             34     52            32     49            30     48            (18)   (17)   (18)

Martin          28     60            27     56            28     52            (32)   (29)   (24)

Nassau          56     37            48     41            37     49            19     7      (12)

 

Palm Beach      46     39            45     35            45     32            7      10     13

Pasco          43      43            40     41            37     40            0      (1)    (3)

Pinellas        39     45            37     42            38     39            (6)    (5)    (1)

Sarasota        31     56            31     52            31     48            (25)   (21)   (17)

Sumter          57     34            48     38            41     44            23     10     (3)

                                                                             

OPSCAN                                                                                     

Alachua         57     30            53     28            51     28            27     25     23

Baker            89    9             83     14            69     24            80     69     45

Bay              54     34            48     37            39     44            20     11     (5)

Bradford         77    16            70     21            61     28            61     49     33

Brevard         40     48            38     46            37     45            (8)    (8)    (8)

 

Calhoun         91     7             88     8             82     12            84     80     70

Citrus          46     41            41     41            39     41            5      0      (2)

Clay             31     56            29     56            26     57            (25)   (27)   (31)

Columbia        68     25            64     26            57     31            43     38     26

DeSoto          70     24            64     24            59     25            46     40     34

 

Dixie           89     8             86     10            77     15            81     76     62

Duval           54     35            50     36            46     37            19     14     9

Escambia        51     40            46     41            41     44            11     5      (3)

Flagler         42     44            40     41            38     41            (2)    (1)    (3)

Franklin        87     10            81     14            77     16            77     67     61

 

Gadsden         88     9             85     10            83     11            79     75     72

Gilchrist       78     17            72     20            59     30            61     52     29

Glades          76     19            69     22            65     25            57     47     40

Gulf             84     13            79     16            67     27            71     63     40

Hamilton        91     7             86     10            79     15            84     76     64

 

Hardee          79     17            73     21            64     27            62     52     37

Hendry          66     26            63     28            57     31            40     35     26

Hernando        42     45            40     43            39     41            (3)    (3)    (2)

Highlands       45     45            42     45            40     44            0      (3)    (4)

Holmes          90     8             83     13            73     21            82     70     52

 

Jackson         82     14            79     16            72     22            68     63     50

Jefferson       83     13            79     15            72     21            70     64     51

Lee              94     5             89     8             83     13            89     81     70

Leon             61     27            59     27            57     27            34     32     30

Levy             72     22            67     24            60     28            50     43     32

 

Liberty         96     3             94     4             88     8             93     90     80

Madison         86     11            84     12            80     15            75     72     65

Manatee         37     50            35     47            33     44            (13)   (12)   (11)

Marion          45     43            42     43            40     43            2      (1)    (3)

Monroe          44     40            39     39            36     39            4      0      (3)

 

Okaloosa         32    56            28     56            25     57            (24)   (28)   (32)

Okeechobee       69    24            65     27            58     30            45     38     28

Orange          41     44            41     40            40     35            (3)    1      5

Osceola         44     40            42     36            40     33            4      6      7

Polk             50     40            46     39            43     39            10     7      4

 

Putnam           67    25            63     26            58     28            42     37     30

St. Johns        39    49            34     50            28     53            (10)   (16)   (25)

St. Lucie        44    41            41     39            41     37            3      2      4

Santa Rosa       44    47            35     52            28     56            (3)    (17)   (28)

Seminole         35    52            33     48            32     45            (17)   (15)   (13)

 

Suwannee        76     19            71     22            64     27            57     49     37

Taylor          87     11            82     14            76     19            76     68     57

Union           91     7             84     12            75     18            84     72     57

Volusia         46     40            43     38            41     36            6      5      5

Wakulla         80     15            74     19            67     24            65     55     43

 

Walton          63     29            53     35            37     50            34     18     (13)

Washington      82     14            74     19            67     25            68     55     42

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

County Presidential Vote vs. Registration

 

Vote Share / Registration Share

KVS = Kerry / Democratic

BVS = Bush   / Republican

OVS = Other / Other

 

Vote Total / Registration Total

KVR = Kerry / Democratic

BVR = Bush   / Republican

OVR = Other / Other

 

 

                Vote Share   ----Registration Share---- --Vote/Reg Share--   -Vote/Registration-

County......    Kerry  Bush   Total  Dem    Rep    Other  KVS    BVS    OVS    KVR    BVR    OVR

 

DRE             52.1%  47.4%  4,718  41.6%  36.1%  22.3%  125%   131%   2.4%   91%    95%   4%

OPTISCAN        42.3%   57.3%  4,382  41.2%  39.5%  19.3%  102%   145%   2.6%   76%    108%   4%

TOTAL           47.3%   52.3%  9,100  41.4%  37.8%  20.8%  114%   138%   2.5%   84%    102%   4%

                                                                             

DRE                                                                                 

Broward         64.6%  34.8%  963    51%    28%    21%    127%   124%   2.6%   92%    90%    2%

Charlotte       43.2%   56.1%  103    34%    47%    19%    128%   119%   3.7%   98%    91%    3%

Collier         34.2%  65.3%  150    25%    56%    19%    138%   116%   2.5%   117%   99%    2%

Dade            53.0%  46.8%  943    43%    36%    20%    122%   128%   1.3%   99%    104%   1%

Hillsborough    46.4%  53.2%  89     264%   223%   -387%  18%    24%    -0.1%  91%    123%   2%

 

Indian River    39.2%  60.3%  74     31%    53%    16%    125%   114%   3.0%   103%   94%    3%

Lafayette       25.5%   74.2%  4      83%    14%    3%     31%    535%   10.9%  25%    443%   9%

Lake           39.1%   60.3%  139    36%    50%    14%    108%   121%   3.8%   96%    107%   3%

Martin         42.0%   57.5%  89     29%    56%    15%    146%   102%   3.8%   118%   83%    3%

Nassau         26.3%   73.1%  36     42%    46%    11%    62%    158%   5.0%   56%    142%   4%

 

Palm Beach      60.6%  39.2%  650    47%    34%    19%    130%   115%   1.5%   108%   96%    1%

Pasco           44.7%  54.5%  240    39%    41%    20%    115%   133%   3.8%   90%    105%   3%

Pinellas         49.7%  49.8%  536    39%    42%    19%    126%   119%   2.8%   107%   100%   2%

Sarasota         45.5%  53.9%  219    32%    51%    18%    144%   106%   3.7%   128%   94%    3%

Sumter          36.6%  62.6%  35     44%    43%    13%    84%    145%   5.9%   76%    131%   5%

                                                                             

OPTISCAN                                                                            

Alachua       56.4%    43.1%  116    54%    29%    17.3%  105%   150%   2.9%   100%   143%   3%

Baker         21.9%    77.8%  12     75%    20%    4.7%   29%    382%   4.7%   25%    321%   4%

Bay           28.2%    71.4%  87     45%    42%    13.2%  63%    170%   3.6%   54%    145%   3%

Bradford       30.0%    69.8%  14     64%    27%    8.3%   47%    254%   3.1%   37%    202%   2%

Brevard       41.7%    57.9%  301    38%    47%    14.6%  109%   123%   3.1%   95%    108%   3%

 

Calhoun       35.7%    63.7%  8      83%    13%    4.5%   43%    497%   14.1%  33%    375%   11%

Citrus        42.3%    57.1%  82     41%    43%    16.8%  104%   134%   3.9%   88%    113%   3%

Clay          23.3%    76.4%  91     27%    58%    14.9%  86%    132%   2.1%   76%    117%   2%

Columbia       32.3%    67.3%  30     61%    30%    8.5%   53%    221%   5.2%   44%    182%   4%

DeSoto        41.3%    58.2%  14     61%    26%    12.7%  67%    224%   4.0%   46%    153%   3%

 

Dixie         30.5%    69.0%  9      80%    14%    5.4%   38%    478%   8.4%   28%    347%   6%

Duval         41.8%    57.9%  426    49%    38%    12.8%  85%    152%   2.5%   76%    135%   2%

Escambia       33.9%    65.7%  164    44%    44%    11.9%  76%    150%   3.2%   66%    130%   3%

Flagler       48.4%    51.1%  40     40%    42%    18.5%  122%   122%   2.6%   116%   117%   2%

Franklin      40.6%     58.8%  7      77%    17%    5.5%   53%    339%   11.4%  43%    276%   9%

 

Gadsden       69.9%    29.9%  25     84%    11%    4.5%   83%    271%   5.7%   69%    225%   5%

Gilchrist      28.9%    70.7%  8      63%    29%    8.6%   46%    246%   5.3%   40%    214%   5%

Glades        41.1%    58.5%  6      68%    24%    8.8%   61%    248%   4.4%   42%    173%   3%

Gulf          33.2%    66.3%  9      70%    25%    5.4%   48%    267%   10.2%  38%    214%   8%

Hamilton      44.6%     55.1%  7      81%    15%    3.7%   55%    370%   8.5%   38%    258%   6%

 

Hardee        29.7%    69.8%  12     66%    26%    8.1%   45%    269%   6.6%   28%    167%   4%

Hendry        40.7%    59.1%  16     59%    31%    9.7%   69%    190%   2.5%   43%    119%   2%

Hernando      46.3%     53.1%  100    40%    43%    17.5%  116%   124%   3.7%   92%    98%    3%

Highlands     37.1%     62.5%  59     41%    44%    15.1%  91%    141%   3.0%   65%    100%   2%

Holmes        21.9%    77.6%  10     74%    20%    5.4%   29%    384%   9.4%   24%    314%   8%

 

Jackson       38.3%    61.4%  25     75%    21%    4.8%   51%    298%   7.8%   40%    231%   6%

Jefferson      55.4%    44.2%  9      75%    20%    4.8%   74%    219%   7.5%   64%    190%   7%

Lee           39.3%    60.1%  285    31%    49%    20.0%  125%   124%   2.9%   105%   104%   2%

Leon          61.7%    38.0%  140    60%    28%    11.6%  102%   136%   3.0%   99%    132%   3%

Levy          36.6%    62.8%  20     64%    28%    8.4%   57%    226%   7.0%   48%    190%   6%

 

Liberty       35.5%    64.0%  4      91%    7%     2.5%   39%    943%   18.4%  31%    741%   14%

Madison       48.9%    50.6%  11     81%    15%    3.7%   60%    333%   13.4%  47%    261%   11%

Manatee       42.8%    56.8%  177    34%    46%    20.6%  127%   124%   2.3%   103%   100%   2%

Marion        41.1%    58.4%  164    42%    45%    13.3%  98%    130%   3.5%   83%    111%   3%

Monroe        49.9%    49.4%  51     39%    39%    22.1%  129%   125%   3.3%   101%   98%    3%

 

Okaloosa       21.7%    77.9%  117    26%    57%    16.8%  84%    136%   2.5%   64%    104%   2%

Okeechobee    42.3%    57.4%  17     62%    29%    9.2%   68%    199%   2.9%   50%    144%   2%

Orange        50.0%    49.7%  442    42%    38%    20.2%  120%   130%   1.5%   105%   114%   1%

Osceola       47.1%    52.6%  105    42%    35%    22.6%  112%   148%   1.5%   88%    116%   1%

Polk          40.9%    58.7%  261    45%    40%    14.7%  91%    146%   2.6%   73%    118%   2%

 

Putnam        40.2%    59.3%  42     59%    28%    12.4%  68%    208%   3.5%   50%    154%   3%

St. Johns     30.7%     68.8%  94     31%    54%    14.9%  98%    128%   3.2%   90%    117%   3%

St. Lucie     51.9%     47.7%  124    43%    39%    18.7%  122%   124%   2.3%   98%    100%   2%

Santa Rosa    21.9%    77.7%  85     31%    57%    12.5%  71%    137%   3.5%   56%    108%   3%

Seminole      41.4%     58.2%  196    34%    48%    18.3%  122%   122%   1.7%   116%   115%   2%

 

Suwannee       28.7%    70.8%  20     69%    27%    4.5%   42%    265%   11.9%  34%    214%   10%

Taylor        35.6%    63.9%  11     79%    18%    3.3%   45%    353%   16.1%  36%    277%   13%

Union         26.8%    72.8%  6      79%    16%    4.9%   34%    460%   6.9%   25%    335%   5%

Volusia       50.6%    49.0%  269    43%    38%    19.0%  118%   129%   2.1%   100%   109%   2%

Wakulla       41.8%    57.8%  14     71%    23%    6.0%   59%    249%   6.7%   50%    212%   6%

 

Walton        26.0%    73.5%  29     45%    45%    10.8%  58%    165%   4.6%   49%    138%   4%

Washington    28.2%    71.3%  13     69%    25%    6.1%   41%    288%   8.4%   33%    229%   7%

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Ohio

 

On December 14, 2007, Bob Fitrakis & Harvey Wasserman reported that the Ohio Secretary of State  confirmed that the 2004 election could have been stolen : “Ohio's Secretary of State announced this morning that a $1.9 million official study shows that "critical security failures" are embedded throughout the voting systems in the state that decided the 2004 election. Those failures, she says, "could impact the integrity of elections in the Buckeye State." They have rendered Ohio's vote counts "vulnerable" to manipulation and theft by "fairly simple techniques."  Indeed, she says, "the tools needed to compromise an accurate vote count could be as simple as tampering with the paper audit trail connector or using a magnet and a personal digital assistant." In other words, Ohio's top election official has finally confirmed that the 2004 election could have been easily stolen.
…….

The final official tally for Bush---less than 119,000 votes out of 5.4 million cast---varied by 6.7% from exit poll results, which showed a Kerry victory. Exit polls in 2004 were designed to have a margin of error of about 1%.

In various polling stations in Democrat-rich inner city precincts in Youngstown and Columbus, voters who pushed touch screens for Kerry saw Bush's name light up. A wide range of discrepancies on both electronic and paper balloting systems leaned almost uniformly toward the Bush camp. Voting procedures regularly broke down in inner city and campus areas known to be heavily Democratic.

In direct violation of standing federal election law, 56 of 88 Ohio counties have since destroyed all or part of their 2004 election data. The materials were additionally protected by a federal court injunction in the King-Lincoln-Bronzeville federal civil rights lawsuit (in which we are attorney and plaintiff). To date, no state or federal prosecutions have resulted from this wholesale destruction of presidential election records, including 1.6 million ballots, cast and uncast, needed for definitive auditing procedures. However, two Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) election officials have been convicted of felony manipulation of an official recount. The Cleveland Plain-Dealer, the state's largest newspaper, recently editorialized that there is "no evidence" the 2004 election was stolen, but omitted mention of the destruction of the electoral records by more than half the counties in the state. The Plain-Dealer and other mainstream media have consistently ignored findings by the Free Press and others indicating widespread manipulation and theft of the kind Brunner has now confirmed was eminently do-able within the Ohio system.

Brunner says "the results underscore the need for a fundamental change in the structure of Ohio's election system to ensure ballot and voting system security while still making voting convenient and accessible to all Ohio voters." Among other things, she advocates replacing touch-screen machines with optical-scan

units that include a paper balloting system.”

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Composite 12:22am Preliminary vs. Final Ohio Exit Poll

 

Kerry won the unadjusted (WPE) Ohio Exit Poll by 54.4-45.6% and the 12:22am adjusted Composite (1963 respondents) by 52.1-47.9%.Bush won the 2:06pm Final Ohio Exit Poll (2020 respondents) by 50.9-49.1%. Vote shares and weights were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote. The Final National Exit poll was also forced to match the recorded National vote. It’s Standard Operating Procedure.

 

If the 12:22am Ohio exit poll weightings had been used in the Final, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote.  So the weights were adjusted in favor of Bush to minimize vote share inflation:

 

First-time Voters

Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe he won just 47% of those who voted previously?

 

Bush Approval

On Election Day, Bush had an average 48.5% national approval rating (11-polls). In the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, the Bush approval weighting was 51% (Kerry won by 50.1-49.9%).  In the Final Ohio Exit Poll, the weighting was increased to 53% in order to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush won by 51.6-47.0%).  Using the actual 48.5% Bush approval, Kerry won by 52.3-47.7%, a 270,000 vote margin.

 

Size of Community

According to the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll, Kerry won in the Big Cities by 50-49% - but Bush won Big Cities in the Final Exit Poll by 53-43%.  Are we supposed to believe that Bush outpolled Kerry by 10% in large, traditionally Democratic urban locations such as Cleveland and Cincinnati?

 

When Decided

Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry, compared to just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier. Not plausible. Did Bush lead by 10% in the pre-October polls?

 

Party ID 

The weights changed from 38D/35R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

 

Ideology

Liberal/Conservative weights changed from 21/32 to 19/34, a 9.5% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.

 

Voted for Senate

Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of  those who voted Democratic. He had 7%.

 

 

Election Models: calculating the True Vote

 

1)   Election Calculator: Kerry won by 54.1-45.9% (1.22% annual voter mortality; 5% uncounted in 2000)

2)   True Vote: Kerry won by 51.5-48.5% (0.87% annual mortality; 2.74% uncounted in 2004)

3)   Switched Vote:  Kerry won by 53.3-46.7%  (3% of total votes cast were uncounted;  6.8% switched )

 

 

Election Calculator

 

 

                 2000 Recorded                                       2004 Calculated                   

Voted    Actual   Unctd   Cast     Deaths   Alive            Turnout   Voted    Weight   Kerry    Bush    

                                                             DNV       1.33     23.0%    60%      40%     

Gore     2.19     0.18     2.37     0.12     2.25             95%      2.13     37.0%    93%      7%      

Bush     2.35     0.05     2.40     0.11     2.29             95%      2.18     37.7%    11%      89%     

Nader    0.14     0.01     0.15     0.01     0.14             95%      0.14     2.4%     75%      25%     

                                                                                                        

Total    4.68     0.25     4.93     0.24     4.68             4.45     5.77     100%     54.1%    45.9%   

                                                                                5.77     3.12     2.65      

 

Sensitivity Analysis I 

Effects of Gore share of uncounted votes and Gore voter turnout in 2004                                   

                                           

Bush 2000 Turnout: 95.0% 

                

Gore%            Gore Voter Turnout

Unctd    91.0%    93.0%    95.0%    97.0%    99.0%

                 Kerry Ohio Vote Share                      

85.0%    53.9%    54.1%    54.4%    54.7%    54.9%

80.0%    53.7%    54.0%    54.2%    54.5%    54.8%

75.0%    53.6%    53.8%    54.1%    54.3%    54.6%

70.0%    53.4%    53.7%    53.9%    54.2%    54.4%

65.0%    53.2%    53.5%    53.8%    54.0%    54.3%

                                           

                  Kerry Margin                     

85.0%    0.51     0.51     0.51     0.51     0.51

80.0%    0.49     0.49     0.49     0.49     0.49

75.0%    0.47     0.47     0.47     0.47     0.47

70.0%    0.45     0.45     0.45     0.45     0.45

65.0%    0.43     0.43     0.43     0.43     0.43

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II 

Effects of Kerry’s share of Gore and New voters

                                                            

Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters: 11.0%     

 

Kerry%    Kerry % of New voters (DNV in 2000)                        

Gore     56.0%   58.0%    60.0%    62.0%    64.0%

              Kerry Ohio Vote Share                         

97.0%    54.6%    55.1%    55.6%    56.0%    56.5%

95.0%    53.9%    54.4%    54.8%    55.3%    55.7%

93.0%    53.2%    53.6%    54.1%    54.5%    55.0%

91.0%    52.4%    52.9%    53.3%    53.8%    54.3%

89.0%    51.7%    52.1%    52.6%    53.1%    53.5%

                                           

                  Kerry Margin                     

97.0%    0.54     0.59     0.64     0.69     0.75

95.0%    0.45     0.50     0.56     0.61     0.66

93.0%    0.37     0.42     0.47     0.52     0.58

91.0%    0.28     0.33     0.39     0.44     0.49

89.0%    0.19     0.25     0.30     0.35     0.41

 

       

 

True Vote Model

 

         2000 Recorded                              2004 Calculated                    

Voted    Actual   Deaths   Alive            Turnout Voted    Weight   Kerry    Bush

                                           DNV       1.31     23.4%    57%      43%     

Gore     2.19     0.08     2.11             95%      2.00     35.7%    91%      9%      

Bush     2.35     0.08     2.27             95%      2.16     38.6%    10%      90%     

Nader    0.14     0.01     0.14             95%      0.13     2.4%     77%      23%     

                                                                                                        

Total    4.68     0.16     4.52             4.29     5.60     100%     51.5%    48.5%   

                                                              5.60     2.88     2.72      

 

Uncounted and Switched Votes

 

                  Kerry   Bush

Actual            2740    2859

Uncounted         119     40

Switched           208    -208 (6.8% of True Vote)

 

True              3067    2690

Vote              53.3%   46.7%

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Ohio 2004 Exit Poll

 

12:22am Composite

1963 respondents                                                                                                                           

MoE: 2.21%

                                                            

                                                            --Probability--   

CATEGORY                                             Kerry   Kerry Vote Dev

                 Kerry    Bush   Kerry     Bush     Margin    Win      1 in

GENDER           52.06%   47.94%   2.934    2.701    0.232    96.6%    187

RACE/GENDER      51.76%   48.24%   2.917    2.718    0.198    94.1%    90

RACE             51.58%   48.42%   2.907    2.728    0.178    91.9%    60

AGE              51.39%   48.31%   2.896    2.722    0.174    89.1%    77

INCOME           52.40%   47.13%   2.953    2.656    0.297    98.3%    1862

                                                                              

EDUCATION        50.94%   48.77%   2.870    2.748    0.122    79.8%    29

PARTY ID         51.80%   47.57%   2.919    2.681    0.238    94.5%    504

IDEOLOGY         51.10%   48.90%   2.879    2.756    0.124    83.5%    23

VOTED BEFORE?    50.70%   49.30%   2.857    2.778    0.079    73.3%    11

RELIGION         50.96%   48.78%   2.872    2.749    0.123    80.3%    28

                                                                              

WHEN DECIDED     50.96%   48.94%   2.872    2.758    0.114    80.3%    21

SIZE 1           51.17%   48.45%   2.883    2.730    0.153    85.0%    56

SIZE 2           51.33%   48.67%   2.892    2.743    0.150    88.1%    35

REGION           51.57%   48.09%   2.906    2.710    0.196    91.8%    129

U.S.SENATE       51.96%   48.04%   2.928    2.707    0.221    95.9%    146

                                                                              

AVERAGE          51.36%   48.46%   2.894    2.731    0.163    88.6%    54

                                                                              

ACTUAL           48.71%   50.82%   2.740    2.859    -0.119   12.6%    2

                                                                              

 

                    Ohio                               Ohio Final                                 NEP

                   12:22am (1963)                      2:06pm (2020)                             12:22am (13047)                                                                                                            

GENDER   Mix      Votes    Kerry    Bush             Mix      Kerry    Bush             Mix      Votes         Kerry    Bush     Other

Male     47%      2.65     51%      49%              47%      48%      52%              46%      56.20         47%      52%      1%

Female   53%      2.99     53%      47%              53%      50%      50%              54%      65.97         54%      45%      1%

 

Total                     52.06%   47.94%                    49.06%   50.94%                                   50.78%   48.22%   1.00%

                 5.635    2.934    2.701                     2.765    2.870                     122.17         62.04    58.91    1.22

 

RACE/GENDER                                                                                                                

WM       40%      2.25     47%      53%              40%      43%      56%              36%      43.89         41%      58%      1%

WF       45%      2.54     47%      53%              46%      45%      55%              41%      49.99         47%      52%      1%

NWM      7%       0.39     75%      25%              7%       73%      27%              10%      12.19         69%      28%      1%

NWF      8%       0.45     82%      18%              8%       82%      18%              13%      15.85         77%      22%      1%

 

Total                     51.76%   48.24%                    49.57%   51.03%                                   50.94%   47.86%   1.00%

                          2.917    2.718                     2.793    2.876                     121.93         62.23    58.47    1.22

                                                                                                                   

VOTED BEFORE?                                                                          VOTED in 2000                               

No       14%      0.79     55%      45%              15%      54%      46%      No       17%      20.77         57%      41%      2%

Yes      86%      4.85     50%      50%              85%      47%      52%      Gore     39%      47.65         91%      8%       1%

 

Total                     50.70%   49.30%                   48.05%    51.10%   Bush     41%      50.09         10%      90%      0%

                          2.857    2.778                     2.708    2.879    Nader    3%       3.67          71%      21%      8%

                                                                                                

                                                                                                               51.41%   47.62%   0.97%

                                                                                                122.17         62.80    58.17    1.18

                                                                                                                   

AGE                                                                                                                

18-29    21%      1.18     60%      40%              21%      56%      42%              17%      20.56         56%      42%      1%

30-44    30%      1.69     50%      49%              30%      47%      52%              29%      35.08         48%      49%      2%

45-59    29%      1.63     51%      49%              29%      48%      52%              30%      36.28         51%      47%      1%

60-      20%      1.13     45%      55%              20%      43%      57%              24%      29.03         48%      51%      0%

 

Total                     51.39%   48.31%                    48.38%   50.90%                                   50.26%   47.69%   1.05%

                          2.896    2.722                     2.726    2.868                     120.95         61.40    58.26    1.28

                                                                                                                   

INCOME                                                                                                             

0-15     7%       0.39     73%      27%              7%       71%      29%              9%       10.96         65%      34%      1%

15-30    16%      0.90     66%      34%              16%      63%      37%              15%      18.27         60%      38%      1%

30-50    25%      1.41     53%      46%              25%      50%      49%              22%      26.80         53%      46%      1%

50-75    22%      1.24     44%      55%              22%      41%      58%              23%      28.02         46%      53%      1%

75-100   15%      0.85     50%      50%              15%      45%      55%              13%      15.84         48%      51%      0%

100-150  9%       0.51     44%      56%              9%       42%      58%              11%      13.40         45%      53%      2%

150-200  4%       0.23     39%      61%              4%       37%      63%              4%       4.87          47%      53%      0%

200-     2%       0.11     39%      61%              2%       39%      61%              3%       3.65          41%      58%      1%

 

Total                     52.40%   47.13%                    49.36%   50.17%                                   51.39%   47.39%   0.94%

                          2.953    2.656                     2.781    2.827                     121.83         62.78    57.89    1.14

EDUCATION                                                                                                                  

NoHS     4%       0.23     60%      40%              4%       58%      42%              4%       4.89          53%      46%      1%

HSGrad   29%      1.63     53%      46%              30%      51%      49%              22%      26.88         50%      48%      2%

College  28%      1.58     50%      50%              29%      48%      52%              31%      37.87         48%      51%      1%

ColGrad  25%      1.41     47%      53%              25%      45%      55%              26%      31.76         49%      50%      1%

Postg    14%      0.79     53%      47%              13%      49%      51%              17%      20.77         57%      41%      2%

 

Total                     50.94%   48.77%                    49.16%   51.84%                                   50.43%   48.18%   1.39%

                          2.870    2.748                     2.770    2.921                     122.17         61.61    58.86    1.69

                                                                                                                   

PARTY ID                                                                                                           

Dem      38%      2.14     91%      8%               35%      90%      9%               38%      46.17         90%      9%       1%

Rep      37%      2.08     6%       94%              40%      6%       94%              35%      42.53          7%      92%     1%

Ind      25%      1.41     60%      39%              25%      59%      40%              27%      32.81         52%      44%      2%

 

Total                     51.80%   47.57%                    48.65%   50.75%                                   50.69%   47.50%   1.27%

                          2.919    2.681                     2.741    2.860                     121.51         61.92    58.03    1.55

                                                                                                                   

IDEOLOGY                                                                                                           

Lib      21%      1.18     87%      13%              19%      85%      14%              22%      26.61         86%      12%      1%

Mod      47%      2.65     61%      39%              47%      59%      41%              45%      54.43         57%      41%      1%

Con      32%      1.80     13%      87%              34%      13%      87%              33%      39.91         16%      82%      1%

 

Total                     51.10%   48.90%                    48.30%   51.51%                                   49.85%   48.15%   1.00%

                          2.879    2.756                     2.722    2.903                     120.95         60.90    58.82    1.22

                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                   

RELIGION                                                                                                           

Prot     56%      3.16     46%      54%              57%      44%      56%              53%      64.71         43%      56%      1%

Cath     26%      1.47     46%      53%              26%      44%      55%              27%      32.96         50%      49%      1%

Jewish   1%       0.06     76%      24%              1%       76%      24%              3%       3.66          78%      22%      0%

Other    6%       0.34     76%      24%              6%       72%      26%              7%       8.55          75%      21%      3%

None     11%      0.62     72%      28%              10%      69%      29%              10%      12.21         69%      29%      2%

 

Total                     50.96%   48.78%                    48.50%   50.92%                                   50.78%   47.94%   1.21%

                          2.872    2.749                     2.733    2.869                     122.09         62.03    58.56    1.47

                                                                                                                   

WHEN DECIDED                                                                                                               

Today    5%       0.28     60%      40%              5%       61%      39%              6%       7.31          53%      40%      5%

3Days    4%       0.23     64%      36%              4%       64%      36%              3%       3.65          53%      41%      4%

Week     2%       0.11     64%      36%              3%       64%      36%              2%       2.44          48%      51%      1%

Month    10%      0.56     62%      37%              11%      61%      36%              10%      12.18         60%      38%      1%

Before   79%      4.45     48%      52%              78%      45%      55%              79%      96.24         50%      50%      0%

 

Total                     50.96%   48.94%                    48.73%   50.27%                                   51.23%   47.95%   0.54%

                          2.872    2.758                     2.746    2.872                     121.83         62.58    58.58    0.66

REGION                                                                                                             

Cuyahoga 13%      0.73     65%      35%              12%      65%      35%      East     22%      26.74         58%      41%      1%

NE       27%      1.52     55%      45%              27%      50%      50%      Central  26%      31.60         50%      49%      1%

Central  23%      1.30     47%      52%               20%      40%      58%     South    31%      37.68         44%      54%      1%

NW       11%      0.62     50%      49%              15%      52%      47%      West     21%      25.52         53%      45%      1%

SW       26%      1.47     46%      54%              26%      45%      55%                             

 

Total                     51.57%   48.09%                    48.80%   50.65%                                   50.53%   47.95%   1.00%

                          2.906    2.710                     2.750    2.854                      121.54         61.73    58.58    1.22

 

                                                                                                                   

BUSH JOB Approval                                                                       MILITARY                                   

Approve  51%      2.87     7%       93%              53%      7%       93%      Yes      18%      21.95          43%      55%      1%

Disap    49%      2.76     95%      5%               46%      94%      5%       No       82%      100.00         53%      46%      1%

 

Total                     50.12%   49.88%                    46.95%   51.59%                                   51.20%   47.62%   1.00%

                          2.824    2.811                     2.646    2.907                     121.95         62.55    58.17    1.22

                                                                                                                   

SIZE OF COMMUNITY                                                                                                          

BigCity  7%       0.39     50%      49%              6%       43%      53%                                          

SmCity   19%      1.07     62%      38%              19%      62%      38%                                          

Suburbs  49%      2.76     51%      49%              49%      49%      51%                                          

SmTowns  6%       0.34     55%      43%              6%       49%      49%                                          

Rural    19%      1.07     40%      59%              19%      36%      63%                                          

 

Total                     51.17%   48.45%                    48.15%   50.30%                                       

                          2.883    2.730                     2.713    2.834                                        

                                                                                                                   

SIZE OF COMMUNITY                                                                                                          

Urban    26%      1.47     59%      41%              25%      58%      41%                                          

Suburb   49%      2.76     51%      49%              49%      49%      51%                      

Rural    25%      1.41     44%      56%              25%      40%      60%                      

 

Total                     51.33%   48.67%                    48.51%   50.24%                   

                          2.892    2.743                     2.734    2.831                    

RACE                                                                                           

White    86%      4.85     47%      53%              86%      44%      56%                      

Black    9%       0.51     84%      16%              10%      84%      16%                      

Latino   3%       0.17     72%      28%              3%       65%      35%                      

Asian    1%       0.06     72%      28%              1%       72%      28%                      

Other    1%       0.06     72%      28%              1%       *        *                        

 

Total                     51.58%   48.42%                    48.91%   51.09%                   

                          2.907    2.728                     2.756    2.879                    

                                                                                               

                                                                                               

VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE                                                                                      

Dem      43%      2.42     93%      7%               36%      94%      6%                       

Rep      57%      3.21     21%      79%              64%      23%      77%             

 

Total                     51.96%   48.04%                    48.56%   51.44%          

                          2.928    2.707                     2.736    2.899           

                                                                    

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2000-2004 Ohio Recorded Votes and Margins by County

 

The county databases do not include the total number of recorded votes (129,000 in 2000 and 145,000 in 2004)

Late absentee votes had not yet been counted.

 

Gore won 53.1% of the late 129,000 recorded votes (2.77% of the total) compared to 46.5% of the initial recorded votes.

Kerry won 56.2% of the late 145,000 recorded votes (2.59% of the total) compared to 48.7% of the initial recorded votes.

The discrepancies between the initial and late Democratic vote shares are further evidence of a stolen election.

 

 

                 2000                       Bush2k   Bush04   2004              VoteChg  PctChg  

                 GORE     BUSH     NADER    Margin   Margin   KERRY    BUSH     Margin   Margin   Machine Incidents

Total Recorded   47.0%    50.5%    2.5%     165.0    118.6    48.9%    51.1%    -46.4    -1.43%  

County Data      46.8%    50.7%    2.5%     176.4    136.5    48.7%    51.3%    -39.9    -1.40% &nbssp;

 

Late Votes      53.1%     44.3%    2.6%     -11.4    -17.9    56.2%    43.8%    -6.5     -3.47%  

 

DRE             49.1%     48.2%    2.6%     -6.3     -45.3 ;   52.6%    47.4%    -38.9    -4.4%    116

OPTISCAN        43.8%     53.9%    2.3%     56.2     69.9     44.7%    55.3%    13.7     0.5%     31

PUNCH           46.8%     50.7%    2.6%     126.6    111.9    48.6%    51.4%    -14.8    -1.0%  p;  101

 

DRE                                                         

Auglaize        28.2%    69.9%    1.9%     7.9      10.7     25.8%    74.2%    2.8      6.7%     0

Franklin        49.1%    48.3%    2.6%     -3.1     -41.4    54.1%  p;  45.9%    -38.3    -7.3%  p;  82

Knox            34.0%    63.8%    2.2%     6.1      7.1      36.6%    63.4%    1.0      -2.9%    1

Lake            45.9%    51.0%    3.1%     5.1      3.1      48.7%    51.3%    -1.9     -2.5%    0

Mahoning        61.2%    35.8%    2.9%     -28.3    -33.5    62.9%    37.1%    -5.2     -0.5%    33

 

Pickaway         37.5%    61.0%    1.6%     4.1      5.5      37.7%    62.3%    1.4      1.1%     0

Ross             45.3%    53.1%    1.6%     2.0      3.2      44.7%    55.3%    1.3      2.8%     0

                                                                                      

OPTISCAN                                                          

Allen            32.2%    66.1%    1.7%     14.3     15.8     33.3%    66.7%    1.5      -0.6%    0

Ashland          32.2%    65.1%    2.7%     6.6      7.5      34.5%    65.5%    0.9      -1.9%    0

Clermont         30.1%    68.0%    1.9%     25.7     36.4     29.1%    70.9%    10.7     3.9%     0

Coshocton        39.6%    58.3%    2.1%     2.6      2.4      42.6%    57.4%    -0.2     -3.8%    0

Erie              51.0%   46.5%    2.5%     -1.5     -2.6 &    53.4%    46.6%    -1.1     -2.3%    0

 

Geauga           36.4%    60.3%    3.3%     9.9      10.4     39.5%    60.5%    0.5      -2.9%    0

Hancock          28.9%    69.2%    1.9%     11.9     14.4     29.0%    71.0%    2.5      1.8%     0

Hardin           37.9%    60.1%    2.1%     2.4      3.5      36.6%    63.4%    1.1      4.6%     0

Lucas            58.1%    39.5%    2.3%     -33.8    -43.5    60.1%  p;  39.9%    -9.7     -1.7% ;   31

Miami            36.7%    61.2%    2.1%     10.2     16.0     34.0%    66.0%    5.8      7.4%     0

 

Ottawa           47.8%    50.0%    2.2%     0.4      0.9      48.0%    52.0%    0.5      1.7%     0

Sandusky         43.7%    54.0%    2.3%     2.5      3.9      43.8%    56.2%    1.4      2.1%     0

Washington       39.5%    58.4%    2.2%     4.9      4.9      41.6%    58.4%    0.0      -2.1%    0

                                                                                      

 

                 2000                       2000     2004     2004              Change   Net     

                 GORE     BUSH     NADER    Margin   Margin   KERRY    BUSH     Margin   Margin   Inc

PUNCH CARDS                                                               

Adams            35.3%    63.1%    1.6%     2.8      3.3      35.9%    64.1%    0.5      0.4%     0

Ashtabula        50.9%    46.2%    2.9%     -1.8     -2.9     53.3% ;   46.7%    -1.1     -1.9% ;   0

Athens           53.6%    40.1%    6.3%     -3.0     -7.5 &    63.7%    36.3%    -4.5     -13.8%   0

Belmont          54.5%    43.0%    2.5%     -3.3     -2.0     53.0% ;   47.0%    1.4      5.5%     0

Brown            36.7%    61.6%    1.7%     4.0      5.4      36.1%    63.9%    1.4      2.8%     0

 

Butler           34.1%    63.9%    2.0%     39.0     52.6     33.7%    66.3%    13.5     2.9%     0

Carroll          41.4%    56.3%    2.3%     1.8      1.3      45.1%    54.9%    -0.4     -5.1%    0

Champaign        38.3%    59.4%    2.2%     3.2      4.7      37.1%    62.9%    1.5      4.6%     0

Clark            49.0%    48.7%    2.4%     -0.2     1.6 &nnbsp;    48.8%    51.2%    1.8      2.7%     1

Clinton          32.0%    65.8%    2.2%     4.9      7.4      29.3%    70.7%    2.4      7.4%     0

 

Columbn          47.4%    49.9%    2.8%     1.1      2.3      47.6%    52.4%    1.3      2.3%     0

Crawford         35.5%    61.7%    2.8%     4.9      6.0      35.8%    64.2%    1.2      2.2%     0

Cuyahoga         63.0%    34.0%    3.0%     -156.8   -217.6   666.8%    33.2%    -60.8    -4.6%    75

Darke            33.6%    64.4%    1.9%     6.9      10.2     30.0%    70.0%    3.3      9.1%     0

Defiance         38.5%    59.3%    2.3%     3.3      4.3      37.8%    62.2%    1.1      3.7%     0

 

Delaware         31.2%    66.7%    2.2%     19.0     25.7     33.6%    66.4%    6.7      -2.8%    0

Fairfield        35.5%    62.4%    2.1%     14.2     17.7     36.6%    63.4%    3.5      -0.2%    0

Fayette          36.5%    61.7%    1.8%     2.3      3.0      37.0%    63.0%    0.7      0.8%     0

Fulton           36.3%    61.7%    2.0%     4.7      5.3      37.6%    62.4%    0.7      -0.6%    0

Gallia           38.6%    59.7%    1.7%     2.6      3.1      38.4%    61.6%    0.5      2.1%     0

 

Greene           38.5%    59.1%    2.4%     12.8     17.5     38.5%    61.5%    4.7      2.4%     0

Guernsey         43.6%    53.7%    2.7%     1.5      2.0      43.7%    56.3%    0.6      2.4%     0

Hamilton         42.6%    54.9%    2.5%     44.1     24.7     47.0%    53.0%    -19.4    -6.2%  p;  18

Harrison         48.1%    49.1%    2.7%     0.1      0.5      47.0%    53.0%    0.4      5.1%     0

Henry            33.1%    65.0%    1.9%     4.1      4.7      34.0%    66.0%    0.6      0.1%     0

 

Highland         34.8%    63.6%    1.6%     4.3      5.9      33.6%    66.4%    1.5      4.0%     0

Hocking          42.8%    54.5%    2.8%     1.2      0.8      47.1%    52.9%    -0.4     -5.8%    0

Holmes           23.0%    75.0%    1.9%     4.6      5.7      24.0%    76.0%    1.1      0.0%     0

Huron            38.8%    58.5%    2.7%     4.1      4.2      41.6%    58.4%    0.1      -2.9%    0

Jackson          41.7%    56.5%    1.8%     1.8      2.9      39.7%    60.3%    1.1      5.8%     0

 

Jefferson        52.3%    45.0%    2.7%     -2.4     -1.8     52.5% ;   47.5%    0.6      2.2%     0

Lawrence         46.6%    51.7%    1.7%     1.2      3.3      43.9%    56.1%    2.1      7.1%     0

Licking          37.5%    60.1%    2.4%     13.7     18.7     37.9%    62.1%    5.0      1.6%     0

Logan            32.6%    65.0%    2.5%     5.8      7.4      32.1%    67.9%    1.6      3.5%     0

Lorain           53.7%    43.4%    2.9%     -11.2    -16.8    56.2%  p;  43.8%    -5.6     -1.9% ;   0

 

Madison          36.4%    61.5%    2.1%     3.5      4.9      35.7%    64.3%    1.3      3.5%     0

Marion           42.1%    55.5%    2.4%     3.2      5.2      40.7%    59.3%    2.0      5.1%     0

Medina           40.4%    56.6%    3.0%     10.5     11.8     42.9%    57.1%    1.2      -2.1%    0

Meigs            38.0%    59.6%    2.4%     2.0      1.8      41.3%    58.7%    -0.2     -4.2%    0

Mercer           28.9%    68.9%    2.2%     7.1      10.1     24.7%    75.3%    3.0      10.6%    0

 

Monroe           52.4%    45.5%    2.2%     -0.5     -0.8 &    55.3%    44.7%    -0.3     -3.7%    0

Montgomery       49.8%    48.2%    2.0%     -3.7     -3.5 &    50.6%    49.4%    0.1      0.3%     0

Morgan           38.4%    58.6%    3.0%     1.2      0.9      43.2%    56.8%    -0.3     -6.6%    0

Morrow           35.8%    61.8%    2.4%     3.3      4.7      35.4%    64.6%    1.4      3.1%     0

Muskingum        41.6%    55.6%    2.7%     4.4      5.9      42.3%    57.7%    1.4      1.4%     0

 

Noble            39.0%    58.3%    2.6%     1.1      1.2      40.8%    59.2%    0.1      -0.9%    0

Paulding         38.3%    59.0%    2.7%     1.8      2.5      36.8%    63.2%    0.7      5.6%     0

Perry            46.5%    50.8%    2.6%     0.5      0.6      48.1%    51.9%    0.0      -0.5%    0

Pike             47.1%    51.2%    1.7%     0.4      0.5      47.9%    52.1%    0.1      0.2%     0

Portage          50.6%    45.6%    3.8%     -3.0     -4.9     53.2% ;   46.8%    -1.8     -1.5% ;   1

 

Preble           35.6%    62.2%    2.2%     4.7      6.3      34.7%    65.3%    1.6      4.1%     0

Putnam           23.7%    74.8%    1.5%     8.7      9.8      23.4%    76.6%    1.2      2.0%     0

Richland         39.4%    58.0%    2.5%     9.5      12.2     39.9%    60.1%    2.7      1.6%     0

Scioto           45.7%    52.4%    1.9%     2.0      1.5      47.8%    52.2%    -0.5     -2.4%    0

Seneca           39.6%    57.7%    2.8%     4.3      4.9      40.8%    59.2%    0.6      0.3%     0

 

Shelby           33.9%    64.1%    2.0%     5.8      9.5      28.6%    71.4%    3.7      12.7%    0

Stark            47.7%    49.7%    2.6%     3.0      -2.4     50.7%    49.3%    -5.5     -3.3%    1

Summit           53.7%    43.6%    2.7%     -22.1    -36.7    56.8%  p;  43.2%    -14.6    -3.5%  p;  5

Trumbull         60.6%    36.5%    2.9%     -22.4    -25.1    61.9%    38.1%    -2.7     0.3%     0

Tuscarawas       43.6%    53.5%    2.9%     3.6      4.9      44.1%    55.9%    1.3      1.8%     0

 

Union            29.8%    68.1%    2.0%     6.3      9.0      29.6%    70.4%    2.7      2.6%     0

Van Wert         32.1%    66.2%    1.7%     4.4      6.5      27.7%    72.3%    2.1      10.5%    0

Vinton           41.9%    55.8%    2.3%     0.7      0.6      45.0%    55.0%    -0.1     -3.9%    0

Warren           28.0%    70.5%    1.6%     28.5     41.1     27.6%    72.4%    12.6     2.2%     0

Wayne            35.3%    61.9%    2.8%     10.9     12.0     38.2%    61.8%    1.1      -3.0%    0

 

Williams         34.8%    63.0%    2.2%     4.3      5.4      34.9%    65.1%    1.1      2.1%     0

Wood              43.9%   53.2%    2.9%     4.7      4.4      46.4%    53.6%    -0.4     -2.2%    0

Wyandot          34.9%    63.1%    2.0%     2.7      3.4      33.8%    66.2%    0.7      4.2%     0

                                                                                      

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

New York

 

Why would BushCo steal votes in NY? Kerry won the recorded vote by a whopping 18%. The simple answer: to pad his popular vote mandate”. This analysis shows that Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded vote indicates.

 

Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote the myth that the pre-election polls was correct and the exit polls was way off. In essence, they claimed that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free recorded vote. But they can’t provide evidence that  ALL the votes were counted accurately in ALL the precincts. Historical evidence indicates that Lever machines are vulnerable to rigging. They fail to consider absentee and provisional ballots. Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example of how mechanical voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts. The report illuminated another way to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever).

 

They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 - Bush 35.2 - Nader 3.6.  Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.  In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on

the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.

 

They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%).  Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.

  

 They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator model accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%.  The assumptions were that Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%. 

 

They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%.  If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).

 

2004  

Kerry   Bush    Nader

4.31m   2.96m    0.10m

58.5%   40.2%   1.3%

 

2000 

Gore    Bush     Nader

4.11m    2.41m    0.24m 

60.5%   35.4%    4.1%

 

Let’s first keep it simple by allocating defecting Nader 2000 voters to Kerry and Bush.

According to the NEP, of the 2.8% Nader voters who defected, 2.1% voted for Kerry; 0.7% for Bush.

 

Assuming an equal defection of Gore and Bush voters:

Kerry =   60.5 + 2.1 = 62.6%

Bush  =   35.4 + 0.7 = 36.1%

 

But according to the NEP, 8% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters defected (net 2% to Kerry)

Kerry  =  62.6% + 1 = 63.6%

Bush   =  36.1%  -1 = 35.1%

 

Finally, assume that 3% of the total NY votes cast were uncounted.

(2.25% to Kerry and 0.75% to Bush, net 1.50% to Kerry)

 

It’s a near-perfect match to the NY Exit poll:

Kerry =   63.6 + .75 = 64.35%

Bush  =   35.1 - .75 = 34.35%

 

1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average of 64.1%.  His recorded share was 58.5%.

2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest national Within Precinct Error (10.6%). New York votes 99% by Lever.

3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.

4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. Therefore, his NY shares must have exceeded the corresponding national shares.

5. Kerry won 66% of the final 500k recorded votes and just 58% of the initial 6.8m; Gore won 74% of the final 500k and 60% of the initial 6.3m.

6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).

7. Kerry had his highest NY shares in the four counties which also had the highest rates of voting incidents.

8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.

 

9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count!  The net defection rate would have had to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY vote share by over 5%?

 

10: This is the essence of the Urban Legend: Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban strongholds yet did not do well in small towns and rural areas, his own strongholds. Seven strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total New York State recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) over his 2000 vote; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over the Gore vote; Nader lost 89k. In the other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%). 

 

This graph illustrates the Bush Urban Legend: the implausible change in votes from 2000 to 2004 for the largest 15 NY counties.

 

11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have a 72/27% margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and 8% of Gore voters defected.   Assuming a net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73-26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% increase in Bush margin!

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

NY Pre-election and Exit Polls

 

New York                   Kerry   Bush   Nader

Recorded vote              58.5%   40.2%   1.3%

Final pre-election poll    57       39     1

Projection                 59       40     1

 

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures

WPE (11.4)                 64.1%   34.4%    1.5%

Best Estimate              65.1    33.8     1.1 

Composite                  63.1    35.5     1.4

 

 

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts

Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (-10.6%). 

Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (-2.2%)

New York votes 99% by Lever.

 

Polling	Place	WPE mean	WPE median		Number precincts
Paper	Ballot	-2.2	-0.9		40
Mechanical	Voting	-10.6	-10.3		118
Touch	Screen	-7.1	-7		360
Punch	Cards	-6.6	-7.3		158
Optical	Scan	-6.1	-5.5		573

 

 

 

NY 2004 Election Calculator

 

Assumptions:

95% turnout

1.22% annual voter mortality

No uncounted votes

 

Plausible Scenarios

 

Scenario 1: 

(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)

 

                                                   

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV              1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%

Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%

Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%

Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      64%     17%      19%

                                                   

Total    6.140    7.376    100%     60.54%   37.98%   1.48%

                          7.376    4.465    2.801    0.109

                                                   

Scenario 2: 

(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)                                                                                          

 

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV               1.236    16.7%    61%     37%      2%

Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%    94%     5%       1%

Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%    12%     88%      0%

Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%     68%     13%      19%

                                                   

Total    6.140    7.376    100%    63.45%   35.07%   1.48%

                          7.376    4.680    2.587    0.109

                                                   

                                                   

Implausible Scenarios

(vote shares adjusted to match to recorded vote)

 

Scenario 1: 

Bush wins 100% of Nader 2000 voters                                                                                        

 

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV               1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%

Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%

Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     10%     90%      0%

Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      0%      100%     0%

                                                   

Total    6.140    7.376    100%     58.37%   40.79%   0.84%

                           7.376    4.305    3.009    0.062

                                                   

Scenario 2: 

Bush wins 100% of Bush 2000 voters                                                                                          

 

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV               1.236    16.7%     57%     41%      2%

Gore     95%      3.718    50.4%     91%     8%       1%

Bush     95%      2.172    29.4%     0%      100%     0%

Nader    95%      0.250    3.4%      64%     17%      19%

                                                   

Total    6.140    7.376    100%     57.60%   40.92%   1.48%

                           7.376    4.248    3.018    0.109

                                                   

Scenario 3: 

Bush wins 54% of New 2004 voters (DNV)                                                                                 

 

         Turnout Voted     Mix     Kerry    Bush   Other

DNV               1.24     16.7%     44%     54%      2%

Gore     95%      3.72     50.4%     91%     8%       1%

Bush     95%      2.17     29.4%     10%     90%      0%

Nader    95%      0.25     3.4%      64%     17%      19%

                                                   

Total    6.140    7.376    100%     58.36%   40.15%   1.48%

                           7.376    4.305    2.962    0.109

 

Sensitivity Analysis I                          

                

Assumptions:

Bush 2000 voter turnout: 95%

2% uncounted votes

1.22% annual voter mortality

 

Gore share                                         

of Unctd         Gore Voter Turnout                         

Votes    91.0%    93.0%    95.0%    97.0%    99.0%

 

         Kerry National Vote                       

95.0%    62.1%    62.4%    62.8%    63.2%    63.5%

85.0%    61.9%    62.3%    62.7%    63.0%    63.4%

75.0%    61.8%    62.1%    62.5%    62.9%    63.2%

65.0%    61.6%    62.0%    62.4%    62.7%    63.1%

55.0%    61.5%    61.9%    62.2%    62.6%    62.9%

 

         Kerry Margin (millions)                    

95.0%    1.90     1.96     2.01     2.06     2.12

85.0%    1.88     1.93     1.99     2.04     2.10

75.0%    1.86     1.91     1.97     2.02     2.07

65.0%    1.84     1.89     1.94     2.00     2.05

55.0%    1.82     1.87     1.92     1.98     2.03

                                           

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II                         

 

Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters: 10%

2% uncounted votes

1.22% annual voter mortality

        

 

           Kerry Share of                                   

Gore       New voters (DNV in 2000)                         

Voters   56.0%   58.0%    60.0%    62.0%    64.0%

 

         Kerry National Vote                        

97.0%    63.9%    64.2%    64.5%    64.9%    65.2%

95.0%    62.9%    63.2%    63.5%    63.9%    64.2%

93.0%    61.8%    62.2%    62.5%    62.8%    63.2%

91.0%    60.8%    61.2%    61.5%    61.8%    62.2%

89.0%    59.8%    60.1%    60.5%    60.8%    61.2%

                                           

         Kerry Margin (millions)                    

97.0%    2.17     2.22     2.27     2.32     2.37

95.0%    2.02     2.07     2.12     2.17     2.22

93.0%    1.87     1.92     1.97     2.02     2.07

91.0%    1.71     1.76     1.81     1.86     1.92

89.0%    1.56     1.61     1.66     1.71     1.76

                                           

 

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

New York County Vote Changes

(93.4% of final recorded total)

 

Vote Change            Kerry          Bush

Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%

Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%  

 

         Final Recorded Vote                                                                              

                 Total     Dem    Nader    Bush               Dem     Nader    Bush            

         2004     7,377    4,314    99       2,963            58.48%   1.35%    40.17%          

         2000     6,762    4,112    244      2,405            60.82%   3.61%    35.57%          

         Change   614       201    -144     557              4.9%     -59.1%   23.2%           

                                                                                               

         Preliminary Recorded vote                                                                        

         2004     6,892    3,993    103      2,795            57.94%   1.50%    40.56%          

         2000     6,269    3,746    300      2,222            59.76%   4.79%    35.45%          

         Change   622      246      -197     573              6.6%     -65.5%   25.8%           

                                                                                      

         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                          

         2004     485      320      -3       167              66.1%    -0.75%   34.6%   

         2000     493      366      -56      183              74.2%    -11.4%   37.1%        

 

 

Seven NYC Area Counties

 

                           2000                              2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change  

County          Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH

Total            7779     3093     69.6%    26.5%    4.1%     3442     66.0%    32.9%    1.1%     129         311      -89      5.4%   41.3%

                                                                                                                   

Brooklyn         1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%     75%

Suffolk          1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%     35%

Nassau           1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7      ;   64.5     -14.7    -2%    30%

Manhattan        1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%    21%

Queens           1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%     36%

Bronx            912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10%    59%

Staten Island    333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2      ;   24.3     -2.9     -9%    40%

 

 

Total New York Counties

 

                           2000                              2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change  

County          Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH

Total            15553    6270     59.8%    35.4%    4.8%     6892     57.9%    40.6%    1.5%     247         573      -197     6.6%   25.8%

                                                                                                                   

Brooklyn         1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%     75%

Suffolk          1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%     35%

Nassau           1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7      ;   64.5     -14.7    -2%    30%

Manhattan        1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%    21%

Queens           1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%     36%

 

Erie             1007     384      57%      37%      6%       411      56%      42%      2.2%     13.3         27.7     -13.5    6%     19%

Westchester      948      306      58%      37%      4%       377      58%      41%      1.5%     39.5         38.9     -7.3     22%    34%

Monroe           792      300      51%      44%      5%       330      50%      48%      1.6%     13.9         26.3     -10.2    9%     20%

Bronx            912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10% &nnbsp;  59%

Onondaga         485      190      54%      41%      5%       199      54%      44%      1.8%     5.4          10.1     -6.5     5%     13%

 

Staten Island    333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2      ;   24.3     -2.9     -9%     40%

Albany           327      130      60%      34%      6%       136      60%      38%      1.9%     3.8         6.9      -5.6     5%       16%

Orange           284      118      46%      50%      5%       135      44%      55%      1.3%     5.1         16.0     -3.7     9%       27%

Rockland         250      117      56%      40%      4%       122      49%      50%      1.5%     -6.0      ;   13.7     -2.7     -9%     29%

Dutchess         239      105      47%      47%      6%       114      47%      52%      1.6%     4.0         9.7      -4.7     8%       20%

 

Saratoga         168      89       45%      50%      5%       100      45%      53%      1.8%     4.7         8.3      -2.3     12%      19%

Niagara          180      87       52%      43%      5%       90       49%      49%      1.9%     -1.2      ;   5.9      -2.7     -3%     16%

Oneida           209      87       45%      49%      5%       89       42%      55%      2.3%     -1.7      ;   6.5      -2.6     -4%     15%

Broome           193      81       52%      43%      6%       84       50%      48%      2.0%     0.0         5.7      -3.0     0%       16%

Ulster           161      72       48%      44%      8%       84       54%      43%      2.3%     10.6         4.8      -4.1     30%     15%

 

Rensselaer       136      64       51%      43%      6%       67       49%      48%      2.2%     0.5         4.8      -2.4     2%       17%

Schenectady      131      63       53%      42%      5%       65       52%      47%      1.8%     0.0         4.0      -2.1     0%       15%

Chataqua         135      55       46%      49%      5%       57       45%      53%      1.9%     0.0         3.0      -1.4     0%       11%

Oswego           107      45       47%      48%      5%       49       47%      51%      2.0%     1.8         2.9      -1.3     9%       13%

Ontario          88       42       44%      51%      5%       47       42%      56%      1.6%     1.1         4.5      -1.4     6%       21%

 

Putnam           72       40       44%      51%      5%       44       41%      58%      1.1%     0.6         4.7      -1.7     3%       23%

Steuben          82       38       36%      59%      4%       39       34%      64%      1.7%     -0.3      ;   2.9      -1.0     -2%     13%

Wayne            67       36       39%      56%      4%       39       38%      60%      1.7%     0.4         2.9      -1.0     3%       14%

Tompkins         67       37       54%      34%      12%      38       64%      34%      2.4%     4.8         0.6      -3.6     25%      5%

StLawrence       99       37       54%      41%      5%       38       55%      44%      1.9%     0.8         1.3      -1.1     4%       9%

 

Chemung          82       35       46%      50%      4%       38       43%      54%      2.4%     0.5         3.3      -0.6     3%       19%

Jefferson        83       27       42%      47%      10%      35       43%      55%      2.1%     3.7         6.3      -2.1     32%      49%

Cayuga           61       30       49%      45%      6%       32       50%      48%      2.2%     1.6         2.3      -1.0     11%      17%

Catargus         74       32       40%      55%      5%       32       39%      59%      1.8%     -0.3        1.5      -1.0     -3%      8%

Clinton          64       29       50%      44%      6%       31       52%      46%      2.1%     1.9         1.6      -1.0     13%      12%

 

Livingston       57       26       39%      56%      6%       29       38%      60%      2.1%     1.4         3.4      -0.8     14%      24%

Sullivan         63       25       50%      45%      5%       28       49%      50%      1.9%     1.0         2.5      -0.8     8%       22%

Madison          51       26       42%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      1.8%     0.9         1.7      -0.8     8%       12%

Warren           57       26       43%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      2.0%     0.7         1.9      -0.8     7%       14%

Herkimer         61       25       44%      51%      5%       26       41%      57%      2.0%     -0.5      ;   1.9      -0.7     -4%     15%

 

Columbia         54       26       47%      46%      7%       26       54%      43%      2.1%     1.7        -0.8      -1.4     14% &nnbsp;    -7%

Genesee          53       26       40%      55%      5%       26       37%      61%      1.6%     -0.8        1.4      -1.0     -8%      10%

Otsego           58       23       45%      48%      7%       25       47%      51%      2.0%     0.8         1.3      -1.0     8%       11%

Washington       51       22       41%      53%      6%       23       42%      56%      2.4%     0.8         1.4      -0.7     9%       12%

Greene           52       19       40%      54%      6%       23       39%      59%      2.0%     1.3         3.2      -0.7     17%      31%

 

Tioga            46       21       41%      54%      5%       22       40%      58%      1.7%     0.4         1.4      -0.6     4%       13%

Cortland         42       20       47%      47%      6%       21       47%      51%      1.9%     0.7         1.5      -0.7     7%       16%

Fulton           49       21       43%      53%      4%       21       41%      57%      1.9%     -0.4      ;   0.6      -0.5     -4%      6%

Delaware         59       19       42%      53%      5%       20       40%      58%      2.4%     0.2         1.6      -0.5     3%       16%

Montgomery       49       20       49%      47%      4%       20       44%      54%      1.9%     -0.9      ;   1.4      -0.4     -9%      15%

 

Chenang          39       19       45%      50%      5%       20       43%      55%      2.0%     -0.1      ;  1.3      -0.6     -1%      14%

Allegany         41       17       35%      61%      5%       18       34%      64%      1.7%     0.0         1.0      -0.5     0%       10%

Essex            39       16       44%      49%      7%       17       46%      52%      2.2%     0.6         0.9      -0.7     8%       11%

Wyoming          39       17       35%      60%      5%       17       34%      65%      1.4%     -0.1      ;  0.9      -0.5     -2%      9%

Franklin         49       16       50%      45%      5%       17       51%      47%      1.9%     0.6         0.7      -0.5     7%       9%

 

Orleans          40       15       38%      58%      4%       16       35%      63%      1.6%     -0.1      ;  1.2      -0.4     -2%      13%

Seneca           27       13       48%      47%      5%       14       45%      52%      2.1%     0.1         1.3      -0.4     2%       21%

Schoharie        29       13       39%      55%      5%       13       39%      59%      2.1%     0.2         0.9      -0.4     4%       14%

Lewis            30       10       40%      56%      4%       11       40%      58%      1.9%     0.3         0.6      -0.2     8%       10%

Yates            20       9        39%      55%      5%       10       39%      60%      1.6%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     5%       15%

 

Schuyler         17       8        40%      54%      6%       8        40%      58%      1.9%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     8%       18%

Hamilton         11       3        29%      64%      7%       3        32%      66%      1.6%     0.1         0.1      -0.2     15% &nnbsp;    6%

 

                                                            

________________________________________________________________________

 

NY 2000-2004 County Vote Analysis

 

The data includes the first 6.3m of 6.8m recorded 2000 votes (Gore won 65% of the final 569,000) and the first 6.8m of

7.3m recorded 2004 votes (Kerry won 64% of the final 499,000).

 

        Vote Change            Kerry          Bush

        Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%

        Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%   

         Final Recorded Vote                                                                               

                 Total     Dem     Other    Bush              Dem     Other    Bush             

         2004     7,391    4,314    114     2,963            58.4%     1.5%     40.1%           

         2000     6,822    4,108    311     2,405            60.2%     4.6%     35.2%           

         Change     569      206   -197       558            -1.8%    -3.1%      4.9%            

         Preliminary Recorded Vote                                                                         

         2004     6,892    3,993    104      2,796            57.9%    1.5%     40.6%           

         2000     6,270    3,747    300      2,222            59.8%    4.8%     35.4%           

         Change     622      246   -196        573            -1.9%   -3.3%      5.2%            

         Change from Preliminary to Final                                                                           

         2004     499      321      10       167              64.3%     2.1%    33.6%    

         2000     552      361      11       183              65.4%     1.9%    32.7%         

       

Analysis of Change in Margin                                                                       

 

                  2000                      Gore             2004                      Kerry            Increase in Bush

County            Gore    Bush     Nader    Margin           Kerry    Bush     Nader    Margin            Margin   Vote

 

Albany           59.7%    34.0%    6.3%     25.7%            60.2%    37.8%    1.9%     22.4%             3.3%     6922

Allegany         34.7%    60.5%    4.8%     -25.8%     &nbssp;     33.8%    64.5%    1.7%     -30.6%      &nbbsp;     4.8%     1031

Bronx            86.0%    11.9%    2.1%     74.1%            82.7%    16.7%    0.6%     66.0%             8.0%     19734

Brooklyn         79.9%    16.1%    4.0%     63.9%            74.3%    24.8%    0.8%     49.5%             14.4%    67235

Broome           51.8%    42.5%    5.7%     9.3%             50.1%    47.9%    2.0%     2.2%              7.0%     5684

 

Catargus         40.4%    54.6%    5.1%     -14.2%     &nbssp;     39.2%    59.0%    1.8%     -19.8%      &nbbsp;     5.6%     1453

Cayuga           49.3%    44.9%    5.8%     4.4%             49.9%    47.9%    2.2%     2.0%              2.4%     2266

Chataqua         46.3%    49.1%    4.5%     -2.8%      p;      45.1%    53.1%    1.9%     -8.0%      &nbssp;      5.3%     3038

Chemung          46.1%    49.8%    4.2%     -3.7%      p;      43.4%    54.3%    2.4%     -10.9%      &nbbsp;     7.2%     3327

Chenang          44.8%    49.7%    5.5%     -4.8%      p;      43.0%    55.0%    2.0%     -12.0%      &nbbsp;     7.1%     1343

 

Clinton          50.4%    43.9%    5.7%     6.4%             52.4%    45.5%    2.1%     6.9%             -0.4%     1565

Columbia         46.9%    45.8%    7.3%     1.1%             54.4%    43.5%    2.1%     10.9%            -9.8%     -829

Cortland         47.1%    47.1%    5.9%     0.0%             47.1%    51.0%    1.9%     -3.8%      &nbssp;      3.8%     1498

Delaware         41.5%    53.2%    5.2%     -11.7%     &nbssp;     39.8%    57.7%    2.4%     -17.9%      &nbbsp;     6.2%     1628

Dutchess         46.7%    47.1%    6.2%     -0.4%            46.5%    51.9%    1.6%     -5.3%      &nbssp;      4.9%     9666

 

Erie              56.8%   37.4%    5.9%     19.4%            56.2%    41.6%    2.2%     14.6%             4.8%     27705

Essex            44.2%    49.0%    6.8%     -4.8%      p;      45.7%    52.2%    2.2%     -6.5%      &nbssp;      1.7%     912

Franklin         50.1%    44.6%    5.3%     5.5%             51.4%    46.7%    1.9%     4.7%              0.8%     678

Fulton           42.7%    53.1%    4.2%     -10.5%     &nbssp;     41.3%    56.8%    1.9%     -15.6%      &nbbsp;     5.1%     644

Genesee          39.8%    54.9%    5.2%     -15.1%     &nbssp;     37.2%    61.2%    1.6%     -23.9%      &nbbsp;     8.9%     1393

 

Greene           40.0%    53.8%    6.2%     -13.7%     &nbssp;     39.2%    58.8%    2.0%     -19.7%      &nbbsp;     5.9%     3237

Hamilton         28.8%    64.3%    6.9%     -35.5%     &nbssp;     32.2%    66.2%    1.6%     -34.0%     &nbssp;     -1.5%     131>

Herkimer         44.1%    51.1%    4.8%     -7.1%      p;      41.0%    57.0%    2.0%     -16.0%      &nbbsp;     9.0%     1910

Jefferson        42.3%    47.4%    10.3%    -5.1%      p;      43.2%    54.7%    2.1%     -11.5%      &nbbsp;     6.4%     6343

Lewis            39.7%    56.0%    4.3%     -16.4%     &nbssp;     40.3%    57.9%    1.9%     -17.6%      &nbbsp;     1.3%     575

 

Livingston       38.6%    55.9%    5.5%     -17.3%     &nbssp;     38.1%    59.8%    2.1%     -21.7%            4.3%     3363

Madison          42.5%    52.3%    5.2%     -9.8%      p;      43.0%    55.2%    1.8%     -12.2%      &nbbsp;     2.4%     1686

Manhattan        78.5%    15.1%    6.3%     63.4%            81.9%    16.7%    1.4%     65.3%            -1.9%     16421

Monroe           50.8%    44.1%    5.1%     6.6%             50.4%    48.1%    1.6%     2.3%              4.4%     26322

Montgomery       49.3%    46.9%    3.8%     2.5%             44.5%    53.6%    1.9%     -9.1%      &nbssp;      11.6%    1388

 

Nassau           57.6%    38.7%    3.7%     18.9%            52.3%    46.7%    1.0%     5.6%              13.3%    64523

Niagara          51.7%    43.3%    5.0%     8.4%             49.2%    48.9%    1.9%     0.3%              8.1%     5919

Oneida           45.4%    49.3%    5.3%     -3.9%      p;      42.3%    55.4%    2.3%     -13.1%      &nbbsp;     9.2%     6538

Onondaga         53.8%    40.9%    5.3%     12.9%            54.1%    44.1%    1.8%     9.9%              3.0%     10102

Ontario          43.6%    51.4%    5.0%     -7.9%      p;      42.0%    56.4%    1.6%     -14.4%      &nbbsp;     6.6%     4541

 

Orange           45.8%    49.6%    4.6%     -3.8%      p;      43.6%    55.0%    1.3%     -11.4%      &nbbsp;     7.6%     16027

Orleans          37.8%    58.0%    4.2%     -20.2%     &nbssp;     35.5%    63.0%    1.6%     -27.5%      &nbbsp;     7.3%     1150

Oswego           47.0%    48.1%    4.9%     -1.0%      p;      47.4%    50.6%    2.0%     -3.1%      &nbssp;      2.1%     2869

Otsego           45.4%    48.1%    6.5%     -2.7%      p;      46.8%    51.2%    2.0%     -4.4%      &nbssp;      1.7%     1252

Putnam           43.5%    51.0%    5.5%     -7.4%      p;      41.3%    57.5%    1.1%     -16.2%      &nbbsp;     8.8%     4697

 

Queens           74.2%    22.5%    3.2%     51.7%            71.2%    28.0%    0.8%     43.2%             8.5%     41325

Rensselaer       50.9%    43.2%    6.0%     7.7%             49.4%    48.4%    2.2%     1.0%              6.7%     4817

Rockland         55.9%    40.2%    3.9%     15.7%            48.7%    49.8%    1.5%     -1.1%      &nbssp;      16.8%    13655

St Lawrence      53.9%    41.2%    4.9%     12.7%            54.6%    43.5%    1.9%     11.0%             1.6%     1319

Saratoga         45.4%    50.0%    4.7%     -4.6%      p;      45.2%    53.0%    1.8%     -7.8%      &nbssp;      3.2%     8344

 

Schenectady      53.2%    41.7%    5.2%     11.5%            51.5%    46.7%    1.8%     4.9%              6.6%     4008

Schoharie        39.3%    55.5%    5.2%     -16.1%     &nbssp;     38.6%    59.4%    2.1%     -20.8%      &nbbsp;     4.7%     941

Schuyler         40.4%    53.8%    5.9%     -13.4%     &nbssp;     40.0%    58.1%    1.9%     -18.1%      &nbbsp;     4.7%     721

Seneca           47.9%    46.7%    5.4%     1.3%             45.5%    52.5%    2.1%     -7.0%      &nbssp;      8.2%     1277

Staten Island     51.8%    45.2%    3.1%     6.6%             42.3%    56.9%    0.8%     -14.7%      &nbbsp;     21.3%    24335

 

Steuben          36.3%    59.4%    4.3%     -23.2%     &nbssp;     33.9%    64.4%    1.7%     -30.5%      &nbbsp;     7.3%     2906

Suffolk          53.2%    41.8%    5.0%     11.4%            49.1%    48.8%    2.1%     0.3%              11.2%    77671

Sullivan         49.8%    45.0%    5.2%     4.7%             48.5%    49.5%    1.9%     -1.0%      &nbssp;      5.8%     2513

Tioga            40.8%    54.5%    4.7%     -13.6%     &nbssp;     40.3%    58.0%    1.7%     -17.7%      &nbbsp;     4.1%     1447

Tompkins         54.0%    33.7%    12.3%    20.3%            63.9%    33.7%    2.4%     30.2%            -10.0%    627

 

Ulster           48.2%    43.5%    8.3%     4.6%             54.3%    43.4%    2.3%     10.9%            -6.3%     4831

Warren           43.2%    51.7%    5.1%     -8.6%      p;      42.9%    55.1%    2.0%     -12.2%      &nbbsp;     3.7%     1913

Washington       41.1%    53.1%    5.7%     -12.0%     &nbssp;     42.1%    55.6%    2.4%     -13.5%      &nbbsp;     1.5%     1351

Wayne            39.2%    56.4%    4.4%     -17.2%     &nbssp;     38.0%    60.4%    1.7%     -22.4%      &nbbsp;     5.2%     2857

Westchester      58.4%    37.4%    4.2%     21.0%            57.9%    40.7%    1.5%     17.2%             3.8%     38923

 

Wyoming          35.0%    60.4%    4.6%     -25.4%     &nbssp;     33.7%    64.9%    1.4%     -31.2%      &nbbsp;     5.8%     919

Yates            39.5%    55.4%    5.1%     -15.9%     &nbssp;     38.8%    59.6%    1.6%     -20.8%      &nbbsp;     4.9%     735

                                                                                   

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

California

 

California Secretary of State Bowen decertified Touch Screens (DRE) and mandated a complete audit for counties with Optical Scanners. This analysis shows that the largest vote discrepancies were in DRE counties. Bush's recorded CA vote share increased by 2.9% over 2000 while the Kerry share increased by 0.9% over Gore. Assuming zero voter defection,  this implies that Bush won 76% of returning Nader voters. But this is clearly impossible since the National Exit Poll reported that 71% of Nader  voters switched to Kerry, 21% to Bush and 8% to Other.

 

 

Election Calculator

 

2004 Recorded            

Kerry    Bush     Other   

6.75     5.51     0.14    

54.4%    44.5%    1.1%    

 

Exit Poll (WPE) 

59.9%    38.9%    1.2%

 

Uncounted 3.0%                    

75%      23%      2%

0.29     0.09     0.01

 

Switched

6.1%     -9.9%    23.5%

0.46     -0.50    0.04

 

                                                                                                        

                 2000 Recorded                                    2004 Calculated                       

Voted    Rec      Unctd    Cast     Deaths   Alive            Turnout Voted    Weight   Kerry Bush Other

DNV                                                           DNV      2.43     19.0%    60%   38%   2%

Gore     5.86     0.42     6.28     0.31     5.97             95%      5.68     44.4%    93%    6%   1%

Bush     4.57     0.11     4.68     0.23     4.45             95%      4.23     33.1%    11%   89%   0%

Nader    0.46     0.03     0.49     0.02     0.46             95%      0.44     3.4%     66%   15%   19%

                                                                                                        

Total    10.89    0.57     11.46    0.56     10.89            10.34    12.78    100%     58.7% 39.9% 1.5%

                                                                               12.78     7.49  5.09  0.19

                                           

Sensitivity Analysis 1:

Kerry share of Gore and New voters

                                           

                 Kerry Vote Share                  

Kerry           

share of        New voters (DNV in 2000)                    

Gore     56.0%    58.0%    60.0%    62.0%    64.0%

 

97.0%    59.7%    60.0%    60.4%    60.8%    61.2%

95.0%    58.8%    59.2%    59.5%    59.9%    60.3%

93.0%    57.9%    58.3%    58.6%    59.0%    59.4%

91.0%    57.0%    57.4%    57.8%    58.1%    58.5%

89.0%    56.1%    56.5%    56.9%    57.3%    57.6%

                                           

                  Kerry Margin                     

97.0%    2.66     2.76     2.85     2.95     3.05

95.0%    2.43     2.53     2.63     2.72     2.82

93.0%    2.20     2.30     2.40     2.50     2.59

91.0%    1.98     2.07     2.17     2.27     2.37

89.0%    1.75     1.85     1.94     2.04     2.14

                                  

 

Sensitivity Analysis 2:

Gore voter Turnout, Gore Uncounted vote share

                                           

                 Kerry Vote Share                  

Gore            

share of      Gore Voter Turnout                    

Unctd    93.0%    94.0%    95.0%    96.0%    97.0%

 

85.0%    58.7%    58.8%    59.0%    59.1%    59.3%

80.0%    58.5%    58.7%    58.8%    59.0%    59.1%

75.0%    58.3%    58.5%    58.6%    58.8%    59.0%

70.0%    58.2%    58.3%    58.5%    58.6%    58.8%

65.0%    58.0%    58.2%    58.3%    58.5%    58.6%

                                           

                  Kerry Margin                     

85.0%    2.41     2.45     2.49     2.53     2.57

80.0%    2.36     2.40     2.44     2.48     2.52

75.0%    2.32     2.36     2.40     2.44     2.48

70.0%    2.27     2.31     2.35     2.39     2.43

65.0%    2.23     2.27     2.31     2.35     2.39

 

  

* indicates fraud likely

California       2000                               2004                          

County           GORE     BUSH     NADER            KERRY    BUSH              Knet     Kadj     Diff

TOTAL            54.3%    41.9%    3.8%             55.2%    44.8%             -2.0%    57.2%  p;  2.0%

 

AVERAGE                                                                               

DRE               50.9%   45.8%    3.4%             50.7%    49.3%             -3.8%    53.4%  p;  2.8%

Optical scan      56.2%   39.7%    4.0%             57.5%    42.5%             -1.5%    59.4%  p;  1.9%

Punch card        46.6%   49.3%    4.1%             47.8%    52.2%             -1.6%    49.7%  p;  1.9%

                                                                                      

DRE                                                                                   

Alameda          70.2%    24.1%    5.7%             75.2%    24.8%             4.3%     74.6%    -0.6%

Merced*          45.7%    52.0%    2.3%             42.8%    57.2%             -8.1%    47.4%  p;  4.7%

Napa             55.2%    40.0%    4.8%             60.4%    39.6%             5.6%     58.9%    -1.5%

Orange*          40.9%    56.3%    2.8%             39.7%    60.3%             -5.0%    43.0%  p;  3.3%

Plumas           33.7%    61.9%    4.4%             37.0%    63.0%             2.2%     37.1%    0.1%

 

Riverside*       45.6%    51.8%    2.6%             41.6%    58.4%             -10.4%   47.6%  &nbssp; 5.9%

San Bernard*     48.0%    49.3%    2.6%             43.7%    56.3%             -11.3%   50.1%  &nbssp; 6.4%

Santa Clara      61.8%    34.7%    3.5%             64.9%    35.1%             2.6%     64.5%    -0.4%

Shasta           30.9%    65.9%    3.2%             31.6%    68.4%             -1.8%    33.4%  p;  1.7%

Tehama           31.9%    64.6%    3.4%             32.7%    67.3%             -1.9%    34.6%  p;  1.9%

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

OPTICAL SCANNERS                                                                               

Amador           38.8%    57.4%    3.8%             37.2%    62.8%             -7.0%    41.7%  p;  4.5%

Butte            38.3%    54.7%    6.9%             45.1%    54.9%             6.6%     43.7%    -1.4%

Colusa           31.8%    65.5%    2.8%             32.1%    67.9%             -2.2%    33.9%  p;  1.8%

Contra Costa     59.6%    37.0%    3.4%             62.9%    37.1%             3.2%     62.3%    -0.7%

Fresno*          43.7%    53.4%    3.0%             41.7%    58.3%             -6.9%    45.9%  p;  4.3%

 

Humboldt         45.7%    40.9%    13.3%            59.8%    40.2%             14.8%    56.0%    -3.8%

Kern*            36.6%    61.5%    1.9%             32.5%    67.5%             -10.0%   38.0%  &nbssp; 5.5%

Kings*           40.0%    58.0%    2.0%             34.3%    65.7%             -13.5%   41.6%  &nbssp; 7.3%

Lake              52.0%   41.9%    6.1%             54.2%    45.8%             -1.7%    56.7%  p;  2.5%

Lassen           28.8%    67.9%    3.2%             28.0%    72.0%             -4.9%    31.3%  p;  3.3%

 

Los Angeles*      64.2%   32.6%    3.1%              63.6%   36.4%             -4.3%    66.6%  p;  3.0%

Madera           35.3%    61.4%    3.3%             35.1%    64.9%             -3.7%    37.9%  p;  2.7%

Marin            64.8%    28.5%    6.7%             73.9%    26.1%             11.5%    69.9%    -3.9%

Mariposa         35.6%    59.6%    4.7%             38.4%    61.6%             0.8%     39.3%    0.9%

Mendocino        49.2%    36.1%    14.7%            65.1%    34.9%             17.1%    60.5%    -4.6%

 

Modoc            23.5%    73.5%    3.0%             26.0%    74.0%             2.0%     25.8%    -0.2%

Mono              41.4%   53.3%    5.3%             50.0%    50.0%             11.9%    45.5%    -4.5%

Monterey         58.3%    37.4%    4.3%             60.7%    39.3%             0.4%     61.6%    1.0%

Nevada           37.7%    55.3%    7.0%             45.2%    54.8%             8.1%     43.1%    -2.2%

Placer           36.7%    59.5%    3.8%             36.9%    63.1%             -3.4%    39.6%  p;  2.7%

 

Sacramento       49.9%    45.9%    4.1%             50.6%    49.4%             -2.8%    53.1%  p;  2.5%

San Diego*       46.6%    49.8%    3.6%             47.3%    52.7%             -2.1%    49.4%  p;  2.0%

San Francisco    76.1%    15.8%    8.2%             84.4%    15.6%             8.4%     82.4%    -2.0%

San Joaquin*     48.0%    49.5%    2.5%             46.2%    53.8%             -6.2%    49.9%  p;  3.8%

San Luis Obispo  41.4%    52.6%    6.0%             46.7%    53.3%             4.6%     46.0%    -0.7%

 

San Mateo        65.0%    31.0%    4.0%             70.3%    29.7%             6.6%     68.1%    -2.2%

Santa Barbara    47.6%    46.8%    5.6%             55.6%    44.4%             10.3%    51.9%    -3.7%

Santa Cruz       62.5%    27.3%    10.2%            74.6%    25.4%             13.9%    70.4%    -4.2%

Siskiyou         32.6%    62.9%    4.5%             38.6%    61.4%             7.6%     36.0%    -2.6%

Solano           57.7%    39.4%    3.0%             58.4%    41.6%             -1.6%    60.0%  p;  1.6%

 

Sonoma           60.1%    32.6%    7.3%             68.3%    31.7%             9.2%     65.7%    -2.6%

Stanislaus*      45.3%    52.1%    2.6%             41.2%    58.8%             -10.8%   47.3%  &nbssp; 6.1%

Sutter           32.0%    65.7%    2.2%             32.3%    67.7%             -1.7%    33.7%  p;  1.5%

Trinity          34.1%    58.9%    7.0%             44.1%    55.9%             13.0%    39.4%    -4.6%

Tulare*          37.2%    60.7%    2.1%             33.1%    66.9%             -10.3%   38.8%  &nbssp; 5.7%

Tuolumne         39.7%    56.3%    3.9%             39.1%    60.9%             -5.3%    42.8%  p;  3.7%

                                                                                      

PUNCH CARDS                                                                                    

Alpine           45.6%    49.9%    4.5%             54.5%    45.5%             13.4%    49.1%    -5.5%

Calaveras        38.5%    56.9%    4.6%             38.3%    61.7%             -4.9%    42.0%  p;  3.7%

Del Norte        38.5%    55.6%    5.9%             42.2%    57.8%             1.4%     43.1%    0.9%

El Dorado        37.0%    58.8%    4.1%             38.4%    61.6%             -1.5%    40.2%  p;  1.9%

Glenn            29.2%    67.7%    3.1%             32.2%    67.8%             2.9%     31.6%    -0.6%

 

Imperial         55.0%    42.9%    2.1%             54.5%    45.5%             -3.1%    56.6%  p;  2.1%

Inyo              34.3%   61.4%    4.3%             39.9%    60.1%             6.7%     37.7%    -2.2%

San Benito       54.6%    42.3%    3.1%             54.1%    45.9%             -4.1%    57.0%  p;  2.9%

Sierra           30.1%    65.2%    4.8%             31.1%    68.9%             -2.6%    33.7%  p;  2.6%

Ventura          48.3%    48.0%    3.7%             48.7%    51.3%             -2.9%    51.1%  p;  2.4%

Yolo              55.4%   37.9%    6.7%             60.8%    39.2%             4.2%     60.5%    -0.3%

Yuba*            35.1%    61.8%    3.1%             31.9%    68.1%             -9.5%    37.5%  p;  5.6%

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Oregon

 

Oregon votes exclusively by mail-in ballots, so if there is any state where the recorded vote matched the true vote, it was Oregon. Does it offer any clues to explain the last five elections? It sure does: the average Democratic recorded share was 2.6% higher in Oregon than it was nationally.

 

The discrepancies between Oregon's 2-party recorded vote share and the national vote are highly circumstantial evidence and confirm the other overwhelming evidence of BushCo fraud.  Oregon is 100% paper; we can assume the vote counts are accurate. In fact, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky in their Jan. 2005 report showed that Within Precinct Error was much lower in paper ballot precincts than in others.

Of course they can steal paper ballots. But paper is still a much better choice than DREs, central tabulators, optical scanners, punch cards and levers. More confirmation: Kerry won 51.6% of the recorded vote. He had 51.3% in the exit poll. The exit poll was right on the money. Average Democratic 2-party vote (1988-2004): Oregon 53.2%; National 50.6%

 

Consider these facts:

Oregon's 2-party vote exactly matched the national vote in 1996 and 2000.

 

In 1988, Bush I did 6.3% better nationally than he did in Oregon. Dukakis won OR with 52.38% of the 2-party vote.

 

In 1992, Bush I did 3.2% better nationally than he did in Oregon. Clinton won OR with 56.6%.

 

In 1996, Dole did a miniscule 0.03% better nationally than he did in Oregon. Clinton won OR with 54.66%.

 

In 2000, Bush II did a miniscule 0.03% better nationally than he did in Oregon. Gore won OR with 50.27%. However, if we adjust the Gore share by assuming he would have won 75% of  the Nader vote, then his vote shares become 51.5% in Oregon and 51.0% nationally.

 

In 2004, Bush did 3.4% better nationally than he did in Oregon. Kerry won OR with 52.1%. It's a virtual exact match to the unadjusted state and national exit polls.

 

According to Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky, the weighted average WPE-adjusted state poll was Kerry 51.8- Bush 47.2. Converting to the equivalent 2-party share, Kerry won by 52.3-47.7% nationally, a mere 0.2% deviation from OR.

 

In 2000, Gore won OR by 6k votes (47.1%); Nader had 77k (5.1%) .    

In 2004, Kerry won by 76k (52.1%); Nader was not on the ballot.

Kerry won 59.3% of the 376k net increase in Kerry and Bush voters.

 

 

1988-2004 Oregon vs. National vote shares:

 

                                2-party share    

       Oregon  Share  National Oregon  National Diff

1988   (000) 

Dukakis 616k    51.5%   45.6%   52.38% 46.10%   6.28%

Bush    560     46.8    53.4    47.62  53.90  

 

1992                                         

Clinton 621     42.6    43.3    56.63   53.46   3.17

Bush    476     32.6    37.7    43.37   46.54  

Perot   354     24.3    19.0                  

 

1996

Clinton 650     47.2    49.9    54.69   54.66   0.03

Dole    538     39.1    41.4    45.31   45.34  

Perot   121     8.8%    8.6                   

                                             

2000

Gore    720     47.1    48.70   50.24   50.27   -0.03

Bush    713     46.6    48.18   49.76   49.73  

Nader    77     5.1     3.13                  

 

2004                                         

Kerry   943     51.6    48.27   52.11   48.76   3.35

Bush    867     47.4    50.73   47.89   51.24  

                                             

               Dem Average      53.21%  50.65%  2.56%

 

                                                                           

Historical Elections

 

The Submerging Democratic Majority

 

The Democrats actually won all FIVE elections by an average 8.9 MILLION vote margin. That’s the True Emerging Democratic Majority.Don't believe it? Run the numbers yourself.

 

This analysis is based on the 1988-2004  Election Calculator model. The model first estimates the number of returning voters by adjusting prior election recorded vote totals for uncounted votes and mortality. An estimated turnout percentage is applied to this value. As preliminary NEP vote shares were not available for 1988-2000, Final National Exit Poll shares (which were matched to the recorded vote) were assumed for the base case.  In 2004, however, preliminary 12:22am  vote shares were available, so these were used instead.

 

The model used Census-reported total votes cast as the base case assumption. The pool of potential returning voters was assumed to include all who cast votes, rather than just those whose votes were recorded.  Uncounted vote rates based on the Census are much higher than the assumed 3.0% rate in prior models. Another assumption change is the mortality rate. Annual voter mortality, estimated as 1.22-1.30%, is more accurate than prior models which assumed the total US 0.87% mortality rate.

 

The new base case assumptions had the effect of increasing Democratic vote shares compared to prior models.  For example, the ElectionCalculator indicates that Kerry won by 53.5- 45.5%, a 10 million vote margin. The prior True Vote Model had Kerry winning by 52.6-46.4%.

 

Following are the key results based on the average 1988-2004 vote shares:

- The Dem share was 3.8% higher than the recorded share.

- The GOP share was 3.3% lower than the recorded share.

- The Dem share was 1.3% higher than the unadjusted Exit Poll.

- The GOP share was 0.2% higher than the unadjusted Exit Poll.

 

Voter turnout of prior election Dem, GOP and Other voters is calculated as:

Turnout = prior election (recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths)* voter turnout percentage

 

The True vote for the Dem, GOP and Other candidate is calculated as:

True Vote = shares of returning (Dem + GOP + Other + New voters)

 

1988-2004 Election Calculator Model

 

Summary Statistics

                                                                           

         Calculated      

         TRUE Vote                 Exit Poll                 Recorded                 Calculated

         Dem      Rep              Dem      Rep              Dem      Rep              Margin

Average  50.9%    42.9%            49.7%    42.7%            47.1%    46.2%            9.07

                                                                                      

2004     53.5%    45.5%            51.8%    47.2%            48.3%    50.7%            10.00

2000     51.1%    46.0%            48.5%    46.2%            48.4%    47.9%            5.66

1996     52.0%    39.3%            52.2%    37.5%            49.9%    41.4%            13.36

1992     47.9%    35.0%            46.0%    33.1%            43.3%    37.7%            14.71

1988     50.2%    48.7%            49.8%    49.3%            45.6%    53.4%            1.61

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

1988-2004

Average         Total     Dem      Rep      Other    Margin            Dem      Rep      Other    Margin

Calculated       111.5    56.87    47.80    6.86     9.07              50.9%    42.9%    6.2%     8.1%

Recorded         102.9    48.47    47.66    6.74     0.81              47.1%    46.2%    6.7%     0.9%

Exit poll        102.9    51.09    44.03    7.93     7.06              49.5%    42.9%    7.9%     7.0%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec       8.7      8.40     0.14     0.12     8.26              3.8%     -3.3%    -0.5%    7.2%

Calc - Exit               5.77     3.77     -1.07    2.01              1.3%      0.2%    -1.7%    1.1%

Exit - Rec                2.62     -3.63    1.19     6.25              2.5%     -3.5%     1.2%    6.1%

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

2004    

                Vote      Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin            Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin

Calculated       125.74   67.2     57.2     1.3      10.0              53.5%    45.5%    1.0%     8.0%

Recorded         122.30   59.0     62.0     1.2      -3.0      ;        48.3%    50.7%    1.0%     -2.5%

Exit poll        122.30   63.4     57.7     1.2      5.7               51.8%    47.2%    1.0%     4.6%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec       3.44     8.2      -4.8     0.1      13.0              5.2%     -5.2%    0.0%     10.4%

Calc - Exit               3.9      -0.5     0.1      4.4               1.7%     -1.7%    0.0%     3.4%

Exit - Rec                4.3      -4.3     0.0      8.6               3.5%     -3.5%    0.0%     7.0%

                                                                                      

 

2000

                 Vote     Gore     Bush     Other    Margin            Gore     Bush     Other    Margin

Calculated       110.80   56.6     50.9     3.3      5.7               51.1%    46.0%    3.0%     5.1%

Recorded         105.42   51.0     50.5     4.0      0.5               48.4%    47.9%    3.8%     0.5%

Exit poll        105.42   51.1     48.7     5.6      2.4               48.5%    46.2%    5.3%     2.3%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec       5.38     5.6      0.5      -0.7     5.1               2.7%     -1.9%    -0.8%    4.6%

Calc - Exit               5.5      2.2      -2.3     3.2               2.6%     -0.2%    -2.3%    2.8%

Exit - Rec                0.1      -1.8     1.6      1.9               0.1%     -1.7%    1.5%     1.8%

                                                                                      

 

1996

                 Vote     Clinton  Dole     Perot    Margin            Clinton  Dole     Perot    Margin

Calculated       105.00   54.6     41.2     9.2      13.4              52.0%    39.3%    8.7%     12.7%

Recorded         91.28    45.6     37.8     7.9      7.8               49.9%    41.4%    8.6%     8.5%

Exit poll        91.28    47.6     34.2     10.3     13.4              52.2%    37.5%    11.3%    14.7%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec       13.72    9.0      3.4      1.3      5.6               2.05%    -2.16%   0.11%    4.21%

Calc - Exit               6.9      7.0      -1.1     -0.1      ;        -0.21%   1.77%  &nbssp; -2.57%   -1.98%

Exit - Rec                2.1      -3.6     2.4      5.6               2.25%    -3.93%   2.68%    6.19%

                                                                                      

 

1992    

                Vote      Clinton  Bush     Perot    Margin            Clinton  Bush     Perot    Margin

Calculated       113.90   54.6     39.9     19.4     14.7              47.9%    35.0%    17.0%    12.9%

Recorded         103.75   44.9     39.1     19.7     5.8               43.3%    37.7%    19.0%    5.6%

Exit poll        103.75   47.7     34.3     21.7     13.4              46.0%    33.1%    20.9%    12.9%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec       10.15    9.7      0.8      -0.3     8.9               4.6%     -2.7%    -2.0%    7.3%

Calc - Exit               6.9      5.5      -2.3     1.3               1.9%     1.9%     -3.9%    0.0%

Exit - Rec                2.8      -4.8     1.9      7.6               2.7%     -4.6%    1.9%     7.3%

                                                                                      

 

1988

                 Vote     Dukakis  Bush     Other    Margin            Dukakis  Bush     Other    Margin

Calculated       102.20   51.3     49.7     1.1      1.6               50.2%    48.7%    1.1%     1.6%

Recorded          91.60   41.8     48.9     0.9      -7.1      ;        45.6%    53.4%    1.0%     -7.7%

Exit poll         91.60   45.6     45.2     0.8      0.5               49.8%    49.3%    0.9%     0.5%

Discrepancies                                                                                  

Calc - Rec        10.60   9.5      0.8      0.2      8.7               4.6%     -4.7%    0.1%     9.3%

Calc - Exit               5.7      4.6      0.3      1.2               0.4%     -0.6%    0.2%     1.1%

Exit - Rec                3.8      -3.7     -0.1     7.5               4.2%     -4.1%    -0.1%    8.2%

                                                                                      

 

 

True Vote Calculation

(Census total votes cast)                                                                               

 

2004                                                                                  

      Voted2k    Weight   Kerry     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other   

DNV      24.6     19.5%    14.00    10.07    0.49             57.0%    41.0%    2.0%    

Gore     50.2     39.9%    45.70    4.02     0.50             91.0%    8.0%     1.0%    

Bush     47.0     37.4%    4.23     42.78    0.00             9.0%     91.0%    0.0%    

Nader    3.9      3.1%     2.76     0.87     0.32             70.0%    22.0%    8.0%    

                                                                                      

Total    125.7    100.0%   66.69    57.74    1.31             53.0%    45.9%    1.0%    

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

2000                                                                                  

     Voted96     Weight   Gore      Bush     Other            Gore     Bush     Other   

DNV      15.0     13.5%    7.80     6.45     0.75             52.0%    43.0%    5.0%    

Clinton  51.1     46.2%    41.94    7.67     1.53             82.0%    15.0%    3.0%    

Dole     36.8     33.3%    2.95     33.53    0.37             8.0%     91.0%    1.0%    

Perot    7.8      7.0%     3.90     3.28     0.62             50.0%    42.0%    8.0%    

                                                                                      

Total    110.8    100.0%   56.59    50.93    3.28             51.1%    46.0%    3.0%    

                                                                                      

                                                                                      

1996                                                                          

      Voted92    Weight   Clinton   Dole     Perot            Clinton  Dole     Perot

DNV      5.5      5.2%     2.97     1.87     0.66             54.0%    34.0%    12.0%

Clinton  45.7     43.5%    38.83    4.11     2.74             85.0%    9.0%     6.0%

Dole     35.7     34.0%    4.64     28.91    2.14             13.0%    81.0%    6.0%

Perot    18.1     17.3%    8.16     6.35     3.63             45.0%    35.0%    20.0%

                                                                              

Total    105.0    100.0%   54.59    41.24    9.17             52.0%    39.3%    8.7%

                                                                              

                                                                              

1992                                                                          

      Voted88    Weight   Clinton   Bush     Perot            Clinton  Bush     Perot

DNV      20.8     18.3%    9.57     6.66     4.58             46.0%    32.0%    22.0%

Dukakis  45.3     39.7%    37.56    2.26     5.43             83.0%    5.0%     12.0%

Bush     47.0     41.3%    7.05     30.56    9.40             15.0%    65.0%    20.0%

Other    0.8      0.7%     0.41     0.41     0.00             50.0%    50.0%    0.0%

                                                                              

Total    113.9    100.0%   54.60    39.89    19.41            47.9%    35.0%    17.0%

                                                                              

                                                                              

1988                                                                          

      Voted84    Weight   Dukakis   Bush     Other            Dukakis  Bush     Other

DNV      11.4     11.1%    5.36     5.81     0.23             47.0%    51.0%    2.0%

Mondale  39.4     38.5%    36.21    2.76     0.39             92.0%    7.0%     1.0%

Reagan   51.4     50.3%    9.78     41.16    0.51             19.0%    80.0%    1.0%

                                                                              

Total    102.2    100.0%   51.34    49.72    1.14             50.2%    48.7%    1.1%

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Historical Models II-III

 

The Democrats lose the majority of uncounted votes in every election. This analysis determines the effect of uncounted and switched votes for presidential elections since 1948 – as well as the 2006 midterms. Landslide elections are not included: Eisenhower (1952-56); Johnson (1964); Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984).  

 

In Model II, the True vote was calculated based as the sum of recorded, uncounted and switched votes. A 3% uncounted vote rate was assumed. The 1988-2006 “pristine” National Exit polls closely matched the True vote.  Final Exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. In each election, the pristine exit poll overstated the recorded Democratic vote, since uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.  Vote-switching appears to have been a major component of the exit poll discrepancy in 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004. Sensitivity analysis tables display the effects of changes in the Democratic share of uncounted votes and the switched vote rate on the national vote.

 

In Model III, National Exit Poll weightings were adjusted for prior election voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes. The weights were used as multipliers of the Final NEP vote shares. Preliminary NEP component vote shares are not available (except for 2004), but the national vote shares are known.

 

The assumed mortality rate was assumed to be 3% over the four-year period between elections (the annual mortality rate was 0.87% in 2000). Turnout of 2000 voters was assumed to be 87-95%. Uncounted votes were assumed to be 3% of total votes cast with a 70-75% Democratic share.

 

The calculation of Total Votes Cast is based on the following equation:

Votes Cast = (Votes cast in prior election – Mortality)* Turnout + New voters (DNV in prior election)

 

In 2006, the Democrats led the Republicans by 55-43.5% at the 7pm timeline of the National Exit Poll. But the lead was cut in half to 52-46%in the 2pm Final which was matched to the recorded vote count. Assuming 6% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans, the Democrats won the adjusted vote by 56.7–41.1%, a 1.7% discrepancy from the exit poll.

 

In 2004, Kerry led Bush by 51.4–47.9% in the 12:22am NEP. But the 2pm Final NEP was matched to the recorded vote (Bush 51-Kerry 48).The True Vote (Kerry 66.1- Bush 58.4m) was calculated by replacing the impossible “Voted 2000” weights with feasible weights, and using the12:22am NEP vote shares as the most-likely base case scenario.  According to the 2004 Election Census, 3.4 of the 125.74m votes cast went uncounted. Assuming that 2.6m (75%) were Kerry votes, then 4.5 of the 66.1m votes cast (6.8%) for Kerry must have been switched.

 

The switched votes were calculated by the equation:

True Vote = Recorded +Uncounted + Switched = 66.1 = 59.0 + 2.6 + 4.5

 

In 2000, Gore led Bush by 48.5-46.2% in the final “pristine” exit poll. Assuming zero vote-switching, Gore won the adjusted vote by 49.5 - 47.5%,a 1.0% discrepancy from the exit poll.

 

In 1996, Clinton led Dole and Perot by 52.2- 37.5- 10.3% in the exit poll. Assuming zero vote-switching, Clinton won the adjusted vote by 50.7- 40.9- 8.4%, a 1.5% exit poll discrepancy.

 

In 1992, Clinton led Bush I and Perot by 46.0-33.2-20.8% in the exit poll. Assuming that 4% of Clinton’s votes were switched, he won the adjusted vote by 45.8- 35.4- 18.8%, a 0.2% exit poll discrepancy.

 

The 1988 Bush I-Dukakis election is especially suspicious. Dukakis led by 50.3-49.7% in the exit poll. As usual, weights and/or vote shares were adjusted in the Final NEP to force a match to the recorded vote. Assuming that 6% of Dukakis’ votes were switched to Bush, Dukakis tied Bush in the adjusted vote

49.5- 49.5%, a 0.8% exit poll discrepancy.

 

In 1968 Nixon won by just 500,000 votes, but uncounted votes may have cost Humphrey the election. Assuming zero vote-switching, Humphrey won by 600,000 votes.  

 

For Carter in 1976, JFK in 1960 and Truman in 1948, the switched vote rate was assumed to be zero. Margins were about 1.5% higher than the recorded votes indicate.

 

Historical Model II (1948-2006)

 

Assumption: 3% uncounted votes

 

For the 1988-2004 elections, there was a .06% average deviation between the calculated Democratic vote share (after adjusting the recorded vote for uncounted and switched votes) and the “pristine” National Exit Poll – before the Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.

 

 

         Recorded vote            Calculated vote           Assumptions        National Exit Poll

Year     Dem      Rep      Other    Dem      Rep      Other   Unctd   Switched   Dem     Rep    Diff

2006     52.7%    45.1%    2.2%     56.7%    41.1%    2.2%     3.0%     6.0%     55.0%    43.5%    1.7%

 

2004     48.3%    50.7%    1.0%     52.6%    46.4%    1.0%     2.7%     6.8%     51.4%    47.9%    1.2%

2000     48.7%    48.2%    3.1%     49.5%    47.5%    3.1%     3.0%     0.0%     48.5%    46.2%    1.0%

1996     50.0%    41.4%    8.6%     50.7%    40.8%    8.5%     3.0%     0.0%     52.2%    37.5%    -1.5%

1992     43.3%    37.7%    19.0%    45.8%    35.4%    18.8%    3.0%     4.0%     46.0%    33.2%    -0.2%

1988     45.6%    53.4%    1.0%     49.5%    49.5%    1.0%     3.0%     6.0%     50.3%    49.7%    -0.8%

 

1980     41.7%    51.6%    6.7%     42.5%    50.6%    6.8%     3.0%     0.0%                              

1976     51.1%    48.9%    0.0%     51.8%    48.2%    0.0%     3.0%     0.0%                              

1968     42.9%    43.6%    13.6%    43.7%    42.9%    13.5%    3.0%     0.0%                              

1960     50.1%    49.9%    0.0%     50.8%    49.2%    0.0%     3.0%     0.0%                              

1948     49.9%    45.3%    4.8%     50.6%    44.6%    4.8%     3.0%     0.0%                              

                                                                                                        

Avg      47.14%   47.08%   5.78%    48.75%   45.51%   5.75%   

 

 

2006                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.37                                               

Switched          6.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       78.95                                       75%      24%      1%

 

                 Dem      Rep      Other    Total            Dem      Rep      Other

Recorded         40.32    34.57    1.69     76.58            52.65%   45.14%   2.21%

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.78     0.57     0.02     2.37             2.25%    0.72%    0.03%

Pre-Switch       42.10    35.14    1.71     78.95            53.3%    44.5%    2.2%

Switched          2.69    -2.69    0.00     0.00             3.4%     -3.4%    0.0%

Calculated       44.78    32.45    1.71     78.95            56.7%    41.1%    2.2%

Exit Poll        43.42    34.34    1.19     78.95            55.0%    43.5%    1.5%

Diff               1.36   -1.89    0.52  ;   0.00             1.7%     -2.4%    0.7%

                                                                     

Unctd    Switched                                                    

56.72%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       52.7%    53.2%    53.7%    54.3%    54.8%    55.4%    56.0%    56.6%

1%       52.9%    53.4%    54.0%    54.5%    55.1%    55.7%    56.2%    56.9%

2%       53.1%    53.6%    54.2%    54.7%    55.3%    55.9%    56.5%    57.1%

3%       53.3%    53.9%    54.4%    55.0%    55.5%    56.1%    56.7%    57.3%

4%       53.5%    54.1%    54.6%    55.2%    55.8%    56.4%    57.0%    57.6%

5%       53.8%    54.3%    54.9%    55.4%    56.0%    56.6%    57.2%    57.8%

                                                                     

                                                                     

                                                                     

                                                                     

2004                                                                 

Uncounted        2.74%    3.45                                               

Switched          6.79%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       125.74                                      75%      24%      1%

 

                 Kerry    Bush     Other    Total            Kerry    Bush     Other

Recorded         59.03    62.04    1.23     122.30           48.27%   50.73%   1.00%

                                                                     

Uncounted        2.58     0.83     0.03     3.45             2.06%    0.66%    0.03%

Pre-Switch       61.61    62.87    1.26     125.74           49.0%    50.0%    1.0%

Switched          4.49    -4.49    0.00     0.00             3.3%     -3.3%    0.0%

Calculated       66.10    58.38    1.26     125.74           52.6%    46.4%    1.0%

 

Exit Poll        64.64    59.84    1.26     125.74           51.4%    47.6%    1.0%

Diff               1.46   -1.46    0.00  ;   0.00             1.16%    -1.16%   0.00%

                                                                     

Unctd    Switched                                                    

52.57%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     6.8%

 

0%       48.3%    48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%

1%       48.5%    49.0%    49.5%    50.0%    50.6%    51.1%    51.6%    52.1%

2%       48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.4%    51.9%    52.4%

3%       49.1%    49.6%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%    51.7%    52.2%    52.6%

4%       49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.9%    51.4%    51.9%    52.5%    52.9%

5%       49.6%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%    51.7%    52.2%    52.8%    53.2%

                                                                     

                                                                     

2000                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    3.24                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       107.98                                      75%      24%      1%

 

                 Gore     Bush     Other    Total            Gore     Bush     Other

Recorded         51.00    50.46    3.28     104.74           48.70%   48.18%   3.13%

                                                                     

Uncounted        2.43     0.78     0.03     3.24             2.25%    0.72%    0.03%

Pre-Switch       53.43    51.24    3.31     107.98           49.5%    47.5%    3.1%

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00     0.00             0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

Calculated       53.43    51.24    3.31     107.98           49.5%    47.5%    3.1%

 

Exit Poll        52.37    49.89    5.72     107.98           48.5%    46.2%    5.3%

Diff              1.06    1.35     -2.42    0.00             0.99%    1.25%    -2.24%

                                                                     

                                                                     

Unctd    Switched                                                    

49.49%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       48.7%    49.2%    49.7%    50.2%    50.7%    51.3%    51.8%    52.4%

1%       49.0%    49.5%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.1%    52.6%

2%       49.2%    49.7%    50.2%    50.7%    51.3%    51.8%    52.4%    52.9%

3%       49.5%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.1%    52.6%    53.2%

4%       49.7%    50.3%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%    52.4%    52.9%    53.5%

5%       50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.6%    52.1%    52.6%    53.2%    53.8%

                                                                     

                                                                     

1996                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.82                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       94.10                                       75%      20%      5%

 

                 Clinton Dole      Perot    Total            Clinton  Dole     Perot

Recorded          45.59   37.82    7.87     91.27            49.95%   41.43%   8.62%

                                                                     

Uncounted        2.12     0.56     0.14     2.82             2.25%    0.60%    0.15%

Pre-Switch       47.71    38.38    8.01     94.10            50.7%    40.8%    8.5%

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00     0.00             0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

Calculated       47.71    38.38    8.01     94.10            50.7%    40.8%    8.5%

 

Exit Poll        49.12    35.29    9.69     94.10            52.2%    37.5%    10.3%

Diff             -1.41    3.09     -1.68    0.00             -1.50%   3.29%  &nbssp; -1.79%

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

50.70%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.0%    52.6%    53.1%    53.7%

1%       50.2%    50.7%    51.2%    51.8%    52.3%    52.8%    53.4%    54.0%

2%       50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.0%    52.6%    53.1%    53.7%    54.2%

3%       50.7%    51.2%    51.7%    52.3%    52.8%    53.4%    53.9%    54.5%

4%       51.0%    51.5%    52.0%    52.5%    53.1%    53.6%    54.2%    54.8%

5%       51.2%    51.7%    52.2%    52.8%    53.3%    53.9%    54.5%    55.1%

 

 

 

1992                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    3.21                                               

Switched          4.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       106.96                                      66%      22%      12%

 

                Clinton Bush       Perot    Total            Clinton  Bush     Perot

Recorded          44.91   39.10    19.74    103.75           43.28%   37.69%   19.03%

                                                                     

Uncounted        2.12     0.71     0.39     3.21             1.98%    0.66%    0.36%

Pre-Switch       47.03    39.81    20.13    106.96           44.0%    37.2%    18.8%

Switched           1.96   -1.96    0.00  ;   0.00             1.8%     -1.8%    0.0%

Calculated       48.99    37.85    20.13    106.96           45.8%    35.4%    18.8%

 

Exit Poll        49.20    35.40    22.35    106.96           46.0%    33.1%    20.9%

Diff             -0.22    2.44     -2.23    0.00             -0.20%   2.29%  &nbssp; -2.08%

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

45.80%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       43.3%    43.7%    44.2%    44.6%    45.1%    45.6%    46.0%    46.5%

1%       43.5%    44.0%    44.4%    44.9%    45.3%    45.8%    46.3%    46.8%

2%       43.7%    44.2%    44.6%    45.1%    45.6%    46.0%    46.5%    47.0%

3%       44.0%    44.4%    44.9%    45.3%    45.8%    46.3%    46.8%    47.3%

4%       44.2%    44.6%    45.1%    45.6%    46.0%    46.5%    47.0%    47.5%

5%       44.4%    44.9%    45.3%    45.8%    46.3%    46.8%    47.3%    47.8%

 

 

 

1988                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    93.53                             

Switched          6.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       94.42                                       75%     24%     1%                

 

                Dukakis   Bush     Other    Total            Dukakis  Bush     Other

Recorded         41.81    48.89    0.90     91.59            45.65%   53.37%   0.98%

                                                                     

Uncounted        2.12     0.68     0.03     2.83             2.25%    0.72%    0.03%

Pre-Switch       43.93    49.57    0.92     94.42            46.5%    52.5%    1.0%

Switched          2.80    -2.80    0.00  ;   0.00             2.8%     -2.8%    0.0%

Calculated       46.74    46.76    0.92     94.42            49.5%    49.5%    1.0%

 

Exit Poll        47.45    46.98    0.92     94.42            50.3%    49.8%    0.0%

Diff             -0.71    -0.21    0.00  ;   0.00             -0.75%   -0.23%   0..98%

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

49.50%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       45.6%    46.1%    46.6%    47.1%    47.5%    48.1%    48.6%    49.1%

1%       45.9%    46.4%    46.9%    47.4%    47.9%    48.4%    48.9%    49.4%

2%       46.2%    46.7%    47.2%    47.7%    48.2%    48.7%    49.2%    49.7%

3%       46.5%    47.0%    47.5%    48.0%    48.5%    49.0%    49.5%    50.0%

4%       46.8%    47.3%    47.8%    48.3%    48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.3%

5%       47.1%    47.6%    48.1%    48.6%    49.1%    49.6%    50.1%    50.7%

 

 

 

1980                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.63                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       87.74                                       70%      20%      10%

 

                 Carter   Reagan   Anderson Total            Carter   Reagan   Anderson

Recorded          35.48   43.90    5.72     85.11            41.69%   51.59%   6.72%

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.84     0.53     0.26     2.63             2.10%    0.60%    0.30%

Pre-Switch       37.33    44.43    5.98     87.74            42.5%    50.6%    6.8%

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00     0.00             0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

Calculated       37.33    44.43    5.98     87.74            42.5%    50.6%    6.8%

                                                                     

Unctd    Switched                                                    

42.54%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       41.7%    42.1%    42.5%    43.0%    43.4%    43.9%    44.4%    44.8%

1%       42.0%    42.4%    42.8%    43.3%    43.7%    44.2%    44.7%    45.1%

2%       42.3%    42.7%    43.1%    43.6%    44.0%    44.5%    45.0%    45.4%

3%       42.5%    43.0%    43.4%    43.9%    44.3%    44.8%    45.3%    45.7%

4%       42.8%    43.3%    43.7%    44.2%    44.6%    45.1%    45.6%    46.0%

5%       43.1%    43.5%    44.0%    44.4%    44.9%    45.4%    45.9%    46.4%

 

 

 

 

1976                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.47                              

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       82.45                                       75%     25%              

 

                Carter    Ford     Total                     Carter   Ford    

Recorded         40.83    39.15    79.98                     51.05%   48.95%  

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.86     0.62     2.47                      2.25%    0.75%   

Pre-Switch       42.69    39.77    82.45                     51.8%    48.2%   

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00                      0.0%     0.0%    

Calculated       42.69    39.77    82.45                     51.8%    48.2%   

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

51.77%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       51.1%    51.6%    52.1%    52.6%    53.2%    53.7%    54.3%    54.9%

1%       51.3%    51.8%    52.3%    52.9%    53.4%    54.0%    54.6%    55.2%

2%       51.5%    52.1%    52.6%    53.1%    53.7%    54.2%    54.8%    55.4%

3%       51.8%    52.3%    52.8%    53.4%    53.9%    54.5%    55.1%    55.7%

4%       52.0%    52.5%    53.1%    53.6%    54.2%    54.7%    55.3%    55.9%

5%       52.2%    52.8%    53.3%    53.9%    54.4%    55.0%    55.6%    56.2%

 

 

 

1968                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.26                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       75.22                                       70%      20%      10%

 

               Humphrey   Nixon    Wallace  Total            Humphrey Nixon    Wallace

Recorded         31.28    31.79    9.91     72.97            42.86%   43.56%   13.58%

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.58     0.45     0.23     2.26             2.10%    0.60%    0.30%

Pre-Switch       32.85    32.24    10.13    75.22            43.68%   42.85%   13.47%

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00     0.00             0.00%    0.00%    0.00%

Calculated       32.85    32.24    10.13    75.22            43.68%   42.85%   13.47%

                                                                     

Unctd    Switched                                                    

43.68%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       42.9%    43.3%    43.7%    44.2%    44.6%    45.1%    45.6%    46.1%

1%       43.1%    43.6%    44.0%    44.5%    44.9%    45.4%    45.9%    46.4%

2%       43.4%    43.8%    44.3%    44.7%    45.2%    45.7%    46.2%    46.7%

3%       43.7%    44.1%    44.6%    45.0%    45.5%    46.0%    46.5%    47.0%

4%       43.9%    44.4%    44.8%    45.3%    45.8%    46.3%    46.8%    47.3%

5%       44.2%    44.7%    45.1%    45.6%    46.1%    46.5%    47.0%    47.5%

                                                                     

 

 

 

1960                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    2.11                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       70.45                                       75%      25%     

 

                Kennedy   Nixon    Total                     Kennedy  Nixon   

Recorded         34.23    34.11    68.34                     50.09%   49.91%  

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.59     0.53     2.11                      2.25%    0.75%   

Pre-Switch       35.81    34.64    70.45                     50.8%    49.2%   

Switched          0.00    0.00     0.00                      0.0%     0.0%    

Calculated       35.81    34.64    70.45                     50.8%    49.2%   

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

50.83%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       50.1%    50.6%    51.1%    51.6%    52.2%    52.7%    53.3%    53.9%

1%       50.3%    50.8%    51.4%    51.9%    52.4%    53.0%    53.5%    54.1%

2%       50.6%    51.1%    51.6%    52.1%    52.7%    53.2%    53.8%    54.4%

3%       50.8%    51.3%    51.9%    52.4%    53.0%    53.5%    54.1%    54.7%

4%       51.1%    51.6%    52.1%    52.7%    53.2%    53.8%    54.3%    54.9%

5%       51.3%    51.9%    52.4%    52.9%    53.5%    54.0%    54.6%    55.2%

 

 

 

 

1948                                                                 

Uncounted        3.00%    1.50                                               

Switched          0.00%                                      Uncounted share          

Total Cast       50.00                                       75%      20%      5%

 

                Truman    Dewey    Other    Total            Truman   Dewey    Other

Recorded         24.18    21.99    2.33     48.50            49.86%   45.35%   4.80%

                                                                     

Uncounted        1.12     0.30     0.07     1.50             2.25%    0.60%    0.15%

Pre-Switch       25.30    22.29    2.40     50.00            50.6%    44.6%    4.8%

Switched           0.00   0.00     0.00     0.00             0.0%     0.0%     0.0%

Calculated       25.30    22.29    2.40     50.00            50.6%    44.6%    4.8%

 

Unctd    Switched                                                    

50.61%   0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%

 

0%       49.9%    50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.0%    53.9%    54.8%    55.7%

1%       50.1%    50.9%    51.7%    52.5%    53.3%    54.2%    55.1%    56.0%

2%       50.4%    51.1%    51.9%    52.7%    53.6%    54.5%    55.4%    56.3%

3%       50.6%    51.4%    52.2%    53.0%    53.9%    54.7%    55.6%    56.6%

4%       50.9%    51.6%    52.4%    53.3%    54.1%    55.0%    55.9%    56.9%

5%       51.1%    51.9%    52.7%    53.5%    54.4%    55.3%    56.2%    57.2%

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Historical Model III  

 

National Exit Poll Adjusted weights

 

Assumptions:

3% Uncounted votes, 3% four-year total Mortality, 87-95% prior election voter Turnout

 

National Exit Poll weights adjusted for prior election mortality, voter turnout and uncounted votes;

Final NEP vote shares (matched to recorded vote count)

Except for: 2004 NEP vote shares at 12:22am timeline

 

Mortality: 3% over four-year period between elections (U.S. annual mortality rate was 0.87% in 2000);

Turnout: 87-95% of those who voted in the prior election

 

Uncounted votes: 3% of total votes cast

Democratic share of uncounted votes: 70-75%

Switched votes: not assumed for this analysis 

 

Total Votes Cast = (Votes cast in prior election – Mortality)* Turnout + New voters (DNV in prior election)

                             

Key Results:

 

Average calculated Democratic margin:

 0.25% lower than the NEP average

 5.50% higher than the Recorded average

 

Average Democratic 2-party share:

 0.20% lower than the NEP average

 3.15% higher than the Recorded average

 

NEP: National Exit Poll shares prior to Final NEP

Calc: calculated vote shares

 

Margin deviations:

Diff1: NEP - Recorded

Diff2: Calc- Recorded

Diff3: Calc - NEP                           

                              

          Calculated                 NEP                       Recorded                    Deviations

         Dem      Rep      Other    Dem      Rep      Other    Dem      Rep      Other    Diff1    Diff2     Diff3

2004P    53.0%    46.0%    1.0%     50.8%    48.2%    1.0%     48.3%    50.7%    1.0%     5.0%     9.4%      4.4%

 

2004F    51.6%    48.0%    0.4%     50.8%    48.2%    1.0%     48.3%    50.7%    1.0%     5.0%     6.0%     -1.8%

2000     49.7%    47.3%    3.1%     48.5%    46.2%    5.3%     48.7%    48.2%    3.1%     1.8%     1.9%      0.1%

1996     50.9%    40.7%    8.4%     52.2%    37.5%    10.3%    49.9%    41.4%    8.6%     6.2%     1.7%     -4.5%

1992     49.4%    33.4%    17.1%    46.0%    33.1%    20.9%    43.3%    37.7%    19.0%    7.3%     10.4%     3.1%

1988     49.4%    49.6%    1.0%     49.8%    49.3%    1.0%     45.6%    53.4%    1.0%     8.2%     7.5%     -0.7%

 

Avg      50.20%   43.80%   6.14%    49.45%   42.85%   7.70%    47.14%   46.31%   6.55%    5.70%    5.50%    -0.25%

 

 

Democratic 2-party vote share:

Calculated, NEP, Recorded

 

DiffN: Calc - NEP

DiffR: Calc – Recorded                       

 

         Calc     NEP      Recorded DiffN   DiffR                                                        

2004P    53.51%   51.29%   48.76%   2.22%    4.76%                                                       

 

2004F    51.80%   51.29%   48.76%   0.49%    3.03%

2000     51.24%   51.21%   50.27%   0.03%    0.98%                                                       

1996     55.55%   58.19%   54.66%   -2.65%   0.89%                                                       

1992     59.65%   58.15%   53.46%   1.49%    6.19%                                                       

1988     49.90%   50.25%   46.10%   -0.35%   3.80%                                                       

 

Avg      53.63%   53.82%   50.47%   -0.20%   3.15%                                                       

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

2004- 12:22am NEP Vote shares

 

         Unctd    Kerry    Bush     Other                                      

         2.74%   75%      24%      1%                                         

         2.95    3.0%      Max.     95%              12:22am NEP vote shares           

 

2000     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV       -        --        -        -       26.51    21.1%    57%      41%      2%

Gore     51.00    53.21    1.60     51.62    49.04    39.0%    91%      8%       1%

Bush     50.46    51.17    1.54     49.63    47.15    37.5%    10%      90%      0%

Nader    3.28     3.31     0.10     3.21     3.05     2.4%     71%      21%      8%

 

Total    104.74   107.69   3.23     104.46   125.75   Calc     53.0%    46.0%    1.0%

                                                     Votes     66.61   57.87   1.26

 

                                                    NEP       50.78%   48.22%   1.0%

Kerry share of           DNV                       Recorded   48.27%   50.73%   1.0%

Gore     55.0%    56.0%    57.0%    58.0%            Votes    59.03    62.40   1.23

 

89.0%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%                                      

90.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.6%    52.8%                                      

91.0%    52.6%    52.8%    53.0%    53.2%                                      

92.0%    52.9%    53.2%    53.4%    53.6%                                      

93.0%    53.3%    53.5%    53.8%    54.0%                                      

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

2004- 2pm Final NEP Vote Shares

 

       Unctd      Kerry    Bush     Other                                      

122.3  2.74%      75%      24%      1%                                         

       2.95       3.0%     Max.     95%              2pm Final NEP vote shares         

 

2000   Rec.       Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other

DNV     -       &nnbsp;  -        -        -       26.51    21.1%    54%      45%      1%

Gore   51.00      53.21    1.60     51.62    49.04    39.0%    90%      10%      0%

Bush   50.46      51.17    1.54     49.63    47.15    37.5%    9%       91%      0%

Nader  3.28       3.31     0.10     3.21     3.05     2.4%     71%      21%      8%

 

Total  104.74     107.69   3.23     104.46   125.75   Calc    51.58%   48.02%   0.40%

                                                     Votes    64.86    60.38    0.51

 

                                                     NEP     50.78%   48.22%   1.00%

                                                    Recorded 48.27%   50.73%   1.01%

                                                     Votes   59.03    62.04    1.23

Kerry Share of       DNV

Gore    54.0%     55.0%    56.0%    57.0%

 

89.0%   51.2%     51.4%    51.6%    51.8%                                      

90.0%   51.6%     51.8%    52.0%    52.2%                                      

91.0%   52.0%     52.2%    52.4%    52.6%                                      

92.0%   52.4%     52.6%    52.8%    53.0%                                      

93.0%    52.7%    53.0%    53.2%    53.4%

_______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

                                                                              

2000   Unctd    Gore     Bush     Nader                                      

       3.0%      75%      20%      5%                                         

       2.82      3.0%      Max.     95%              Final NEP vote shares             

 

1996     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Gore     Bush     Nader

DNV       -        --        -        -       21.27    19.7%    52%      43%      5%

Clinton  45.59    47.71    1.43     46.28    43.96    40.7%    82%      15%      3%

Dole     37.82    38.38    1.15     37.23    35.37    32.8%    8%       91%      1%

Perot     7.87    8.01     0.24     7.77     7.38     6.8%     50%      42%      8%

 

Total    91.27    94.10    2.82     91.27    107.98   Calc     49.7%    47.3%    3.1%

                                                     Votes     53.63    51.02   3.33

 

                                                     NEP       48.5%    46.2%    5.3%

Gore share of            DNV                        Recorded   48.7%    48.2%    3.1%

Clinton  50.0%    51.0%    52.0%    53.0%             Votes    51.00    50.46    3.28

 

80.0%    48.5%    48.7%    48.9%    49.0%                                      

81.0%    48.9%    49.1%    49.3%    49.5%                                      

82.0%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    49.9%                                      

83.0%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%                                      

84.0%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%                                      

                                                                              

_______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

1996     Unctd    Clinton  Dole     Perot                                      

         3.0%     70%      20%      10%                                        

         3.21    3.0%      Max.     87%              Final NEP vote shares             

 

1992     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Clinton  Dole     Perot

DNV       -        --        -        -       3.83     4.1%     54%      34%      12%

Clinton  44.91    47.16    1.41     45.74    39.80    42.3%    85%      9%       6%

Bush     39.10    39.74    1.19     38.55    33.54    35.6%    13%      82%      5%

Perot    19.74    20.06    0.60     19.46    16.93    18.0%    45%      35%      20%

 

Total    103.75   106.96   3.21     103.75   94.10    Calc     50.9%    40.7%    8.4%

                                                      Votes    47.87   38.31   7.91

 

                                                    NEP       52.2%   37.5%   10.3%

Clinton share of     DNV                            Recorded   49.9%   41.4%   8.6%

Clinton  52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%            Votes     45.59    37.82    7.87

 

83.0%    50.0%    50.0%    50.0%    50.1%                                      

84.0%    50.4%    50.4%    50.5%    50.5%                                      

85.0%    50.8%    50.8%    50.9%    50.9%                                      

86.0%    51.2%    51.3%    51.3%    51.3%                                      

87.0%    51.6%    51.7%    51.7%    51.8%                                      

                                                                              

_______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

                                                                              

1992     Unctd    Clinton  Bush     Perot                                      

          3.0%    75%      15%      10%                                        

          2.83    3.0%     Max.     95%              Final NEP vote shares             

 

1988     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Clinton  Bush     Perot

DNV       -        --        -        -       19.94    18.6%    46%      32%      22%

Dukakis  41.81    43.93    1.32     42.62    40.49    37.9%    83%      5%       12%

Bush     48.89    49.31    1.48     47.84    45.44    42.5%    21%      59%      20%

Other     0.90    1.18     0.04     1.15     1.09     1.0%     50%      50%      0%

 

Total    91.60    94.43    2.83     91.60    106.96   Calc      49.4%   33.4%    17.1%

                                                      Votes     52.86   35.76    18.33

 

                                                    NEP         46.0%   33.1%    20.9%

Clinton share of         DNV                        Recorded    43.3%   37.7%    19.0%

Dukakis  44.0%    45.0%    46.0%    47.0%            Votes      44.91    39.10   19.74

 

81.0%    48.3%    48.5%    48.7%    48.9%                                      

82.0%    48.7%    48.9%    49.0%    49.2%                                      

83.0%    49.1%    49.2%    49.4%    49.6%                                      

84.0%    49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.0%                                      

85.0%    49.8%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%                                      

                                                                              

_______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

1988     Unctd    Dukakis  Bush     Other                                      

          3.0%     75%     25%      0%                                         

          2.85    3.0%     Max.     95%              Final NEP vote shares             

 

1984     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Dukakis  Bush     Other

DNV       -        --        -        -       6.99     7.4%     47%      51%      2%

Mondale  37.58    39.71    1.19     38.52    36.60    38.8%    92%      7%       1%

Reagan   54.46    55.17    1.66     53.52    50.84    53.8%    19%      80%      1%

 

Total    92.04    94.89    2.85     92.04    94.43    Calc     49.4%   49.6%   1.1%

                                                     Votes     46.62   46.80   1.01

 

                                                     NEP       49.8%   49.3%   1.0%

Dukakis share of         DNV                        Recorded   45.6%   53.4%   1.0%

Mondale  45.0%    46.0%    47.0%    48.0%            Votes     41.81   48.89   0.90

 

90.0%    48.4%    48.5%    48.6%    48.7%                                      

91.0%    48.8%    48.9%    49.0%    49.1%                                      

92.0%    49.2%    49.3%    49.4%    49.4%                                      

93.0%    49.6%    49.7%    49.8%    49.8%                                      

94.0%    50.0%    50.1%    50.1%    50.2%                                      

                                                                              

_______________________________________________________________________________

                                                                              

                                                                              

1980     Unctd    Carter   Reagan   Andersen                                   

         3.0%     75%      20%      5%                                         

          2.47    3.0%     Max.     95%              Final NEP vote shares             

 

1976     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Carter   Reagan   Andersen

DNV       -        --        -        -       11.55    13.2%    46%      45%      9%

Carter   40.83    42.96    1.29     41.68    39.59    45.1%    80%      13%      7%

Ford     39.15    39.72    1.19     38.53    36.60    41.7%    6%       88%      6%

 

Total    79.98    82.45    2.48     80.20    87.74    Calc     44.7%   48.5%    6.8%

                                                      Votes   39.18   42.55     6.01

 

Carter share of          DNV                          Recorded 41.7%   51.6%    6.7%

Carter   44.0%    45.0%    46.0%    47.0%             Votes    35.48   43.90    5.72

 

78.0%    43.5%    43.6%    43.8%    43.9%                                      

79.0%    43.9%    44.1%    44.2%    44.3%                                      

80.0%    44.4%    44.5%    44.7%    44.8%                                      

81.0%    44.8%    45.0%    45.1%    45.2%                                      

82.0%    45.3%    45.4%    45.6%    45.7%   

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

1976            Unctd   Carter     Ford                                       

        79.98    3.0%     75%      25%                                        

         2.36    3.0%     Max.     95%              Final NEP Shares 

 

1972     Rec.     Cast     Mort.    Turn.    Turn.    Mix      Carter   Ford

DNV       -        --        -        -       10.47    12.7%    55%      45%

McGov    29.17    30.94    0.93     30.01    28.51    34.6%    96%      4%

Nixon    47.17    47.17    1.42     45.75    43.47    52.7%    22%      78%

                                                                     

Total    76.34    78.70    2.34     75.77    82.45    Calc    51.78%   48.22%

                                                     Votes    42.70    39.76

Carter share of                                                               

McGovern        DNV                                  Recorded 51.05%   48.95%

         55.0%    56.0%    57.0%    58.0%            Votes    40.83    39.15

92.0%    50.4%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%                             

93.0%    50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.1%                             

94.0%    51.1%    51.2%    51.3%    51.5%                             

95.0%    51.4%    51.6%    51.7%    51.8%                             

96.0%    51.8%    51.9%    52.0%    52.2%                             

 

 

                                                    

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

The 2006 Midterms

 

Summary Analysis

 

This is the final of three pre-election articles I wrote with Michael Collins (autorank) and Alistair Thompson of SCOOP. The purpose was to quantify the risk of fraud in the 2006 Mid-terms. The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and Senate. It also indicated the House seats and Senate races where fraud was most likely to occur. And extensively documented  votinganomalies” confirmed that millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.

 

The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240 House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats, although they barely won Virginia and Montana. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House and Senate.

 

There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies were caused by uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the Final National Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use of fallacious weightings. The 2006 Final “How Voted in 2004” weights were manipulated just like they were in the 2004 Final “How Voted in 2000”.

 

In 2006, the weights were transformed from 47 Bush/ 45 Kerry at 7pm to 49 Bush/ 43 Kerry at 1pm the next day! This replicated the 41 Bush/39 Gore to impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weight changes in 2004.  The net effect of the change was to cut the Democratic margin in half -from 55-43% to 52-46%! Applying realistic weights to the 7pm NEP (using the 12:22am 2004 NEP) the Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120- Generic poll trend projection! Was it a coincidence or confirmation? You decide.

 

This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.

 

Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.

 

Mark Lindeman said: “personally, I think Pew was probably not far off”, referring to the final Pew Generic poll (47 Dem / 43% Rep).  The Democrats won all 120 pre-election polls. What about the other 119 pre-election polls? Is it just a coincidence that he chose to believe the Pew poll, an obvious outlier in which the 4% Democratic margin was 10% below the trend line? Talk about cherry-picking!

 

The Generic poll model projected a 56-42% Democratic landslide with a vote share which steadily increased over the 14 month period from Sept. 2005 to Election Day. The GOP trend line was flat. The 120-poll linear time series regression graph  shows that the trend line closely matched both the 7:0pm National Exit poll and the Wikipedia vote count.

 

The Final 2006 National Exit poll was matched to the recorded, fraudulent vote count, with more than the usual percentage of uncounted votes and switched votes. Literally thousands of reported machine “glitches” were documented nationwide; 18,000 missing votes in FL-13 caused the Democrat to lose. Virtually all documented vote switches were Democratic to Republican. As Casey Stengel used to say: you can look it up.

 

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

        

                                                              5-poll Moving Avg   Projection              

Poll     Survey       Dates        DEM      GOP      Other    Diff     DemMA    GOPMA    Dem      GOP         Diff     DiffMA

Number        Average     All      49.5     38.3     12.1     11.2     49.5     38.3     56.8     43.2         13.6     13.6

 

2005                                                                                           

 

1          Newsweek RV    905      50       38       12       12       50.0     38.0     57.2     42.8         14.4     14.4

2          Pew RV         911      52       40       8        12       51.0     39.0     57.0     43.0         14.0     14.2

3          DemCorp LV     921      48       39       13       9        50.0     39.0     56.6     43.4         13.2     13.9

4          Newsweek RV    930      47       42       11       5        49.3     39.8     55.9     44.2         11.7     13.3

5          DemCorp LV     1010     46       41       14       5        48.6     40.0     55.4     44.6         10.9     12.8

 

6          GWU LV         1012     47       41       13       6        48.0     40.6     54.8     45.2         9.7      11.9

7          Hotline RV     1016     40       31       29       9        45.6     38.8     55.0     45.0         9.9      11.1

8          DemCorp LV     1023     48       39       12       9        45.6     38.8     55.0     45.0         9.9      10.4

9          Gallup RV      1023     50       43       7        7        46.2     39.0     55.1     44.9         10.2     10.1

10         ABC/WP RV      1102     52       37       12       15       47.4     38.2     56.0     44.0         12.1     10.4

 

11         DemCorp LV     1106     48       40       12       8        47.6     38.0     56.2     43.8         12.5     10.9

12         Newsweek RV    1105     53       36       11       17       50.2     39.0     56.7     43.3         13.4     11.6

13         Hotline RV     1115     41       35       24       6        48.8     38.2     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.3

14         DemCorp LV     1120     48       41       11       7        48.4     37.8     56.7     43.3         13.4     12.9

15         Time RV        1201     48       36       15       12       47.6     37.6     56.5     43.5         13.0     13.1

 

16         DemCorp LV     1204     49       39       12       10       47.8     37.4     56.7     43.3         13.4     13.2

17         CBS/NYT RV     1206     42       33       25       9        45.6     36.8     56.2     43.8         12.3     13.0

18         DemCorp LV     1212     49       41       9        8        47.2     38.0     56.1     43.9         12.2     12.8

19         Hotline RV     1213     43       33       25       10       46.2     36.4     56.6     43.4         13.3     12.8

20         NPR LV         1218     45       37       17       8        45.6     36.6     56.3     43.7         12.6     12.7

21         ABC/WP RV      1218     51       41       9        10       46.0     37.0     56.2     43.8         12.4     12.5

 

2006

 

22         Gallup RV      108      49       43       8        6        47.4     39.0     55.6     44.4         11.1     12.3

23         CBS/NYT RV     125      43       34       23       9        46.2     37.6     55.9     44.1         11.8     12.2

24         Dem Corp LV    125      49       41       10       8        47.4     39.2     55.4     44.6         10.9     11.8

25         ABC/WP RV      126      54       38       9        16       49.2     39.4     56.0     44.0         12.1     11.7

 

26         Pew RV         205      50       41       9        9        49.0     39.4     56.0     44.0         11.9     11.6

27         Gallup RV      212      50       43       8        7        49.2     39.4     56.0     44.0         12.1     11.8

28         GWU LV         215      46       41       14       5        49.8     40.8     55.4     44.6         10.9     11.6

29         Hotline RV     219      46       31       23       15       49.2     38.8     56.4     43.6         12.8     12.0

30         DemCorp LV     227      48       40       12       8        48.0     39.2     55.7     44.3         11.4     11.8

 

31         Gallup RV      301      53       39       7        14       48.6     38.8     56.2     43.8         12.3     11.9

32         FOX LV         301      48       34       18       14       48.2     37.0     57.1     42.9         14.2     12.3

33         Gallup RV      312      55       39       7        16       50.0     36.6     58.0     42.0         16.1     13.3

34         NPR LV         314      52       37       11       15       51.2     37.8     57.8     42.2         15.6     13.9

35         Newsweek RV    317      50       39       11       11       51.6     37.6     58.1     41.9         16.2     14.9

 

36         Time RV        323      50       41       9        9        51.0     38.0     57.6     42.4         15.2     15.4

37         CBS RV         409      44       34       22       10       50.2     38.0     57.3     42.7         14.6     15.5

38         ABC/WP RV      409      55       40       5        15       50.2     38.2     57.2     42.8         14.3     15.2

39         Gallup RV      409      52       42       6        10       50.2     39.2     56.6     43.4         13.1     14.7

40         Pew RV          416     51       41       8        10       50.4     39.6     56.4     43.6         12.8     14.0

 

41         CNN RV          423     50       40       9        10       50.4     39.4     56.5     43.5         13.0     13.6

42         Cook            430     44       32       24       12       50.4     39.0     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.4

43         Gallup RV       430     54       39       7        15       50.2     38.8     56.8     43.2         13.6     13.2

44         FOX LV          503     41       38       21       3        48.0     38.0     56.4     43.6         12.8     13.2

45         CNN RV          507     52       38       10       14       48.2     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.7     13.3

 

46         CBS/NYT RV     508      44       33       23       11       47.0     36.0     57.2     42.8         14.4     13.6

47         Newsweek RV    512      50       39       11       11       48.2     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.7     13.6

48         ABC/WP RV      515      52       40       9        12       47.8     37.6     56.6     43.4         13.1     13.5

49         Fabrizio LV    517      39       36       25       3        47.4     37.2     56.6     43.4         13.3     13.6

50         Hotline RV     521      42       36       22       6        45.4     36.8     56.1     43.9         12.2     13.3

 

51         Gallup RV      604      51       42       7        9        46.8     38.6     55.6     44.4         11.1     12.7

52         Gallup RV      611      51       39       10       12       47.0     38.6     55.6     44.4         11.3     12.2

53         FOX LV         614      46       33       20       13       45.8     37.2     56.0     44.0         12.0     12.0

54         CNN RV         615      45       38       16       7        47.0     37.6     56.2     43.8         12.5     11.8

55         Pew RV         619      51       39       10       12       48.8     38.2     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.0

 

56         Hotline RV     625      41       36       24       5        46.8     37.0     56.5     43.5         13.0     12.4

57         ABC/WP RV      625      52       39       9        13       47.0     37.0     56.6     43.4         13.2     12.8

58         Gallup RV      625      54       38       7        16       48.6     38.0     56.6     43.4         13.3     13.0

59         TIME LV        629      47       35       18       12       49.0     37.4     57.2     42.8         14.3     13.4

60         Gallup RV      709      51       41       9        10       49.0     37.8     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.5

 

61         AP-Ipsos RV    712      51       40       9        11       51.0     38.6     57.2     42.8         14.5     13.8

62         FOX LV         712      42       34       25       8        49.0     37.6     57.0     43.0         14.1     14.0

63         Hotline RV     723      48       32       20       16       47.8     36.4     57.3     42.7         14.6     14.3

64         CBS/NYT RV     725      45       35       20       10       47.4     36.4     57.1     42.9         14.2     14.2

65         Gallup RV      770      51       40       8        11       47.4     36.2     57.2     42.8         14.5     14.4

 

66         CNN RV         803      53       40       7        13       47.8     36.2     57.4     42.6         14.8     14.4

67         ABC/WP RV      806      52       39       8        13       49.8     37.2     57.6     42.4         15.2     14.7

68         AP-Ipsos RV    809      55       37       8        18       51.2     38.2     57.6     42.4         15.1     14.8

69         FOX LV         809      48       30       22       18       51.8     37.2     58.4     41.6         16.8     15.3

70         Gallup RV      810      50       41       9        9        51.6     37.4     58.2     41.8         16.4     15.7

 

71         Newsweek RV    811      51       39       10       12       51.2     37.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.0

72         Pew RV         813      50       41       9        9        50.8     37.6     57.8     42.2         15.5     16.0

73         Hotline RV     820      40       33       27       7        47.8     36.8     57.0     43.0         14.1     15.8

74         Gallup RV      820      47       45       7        2        47.6     39.8     55.2     44.8         10.3     14.5

75         CNN RV         820      52       43       6        9        48.0     40.2     55.1     44.9         10.2     13.3

 

76         CBS/NYT RV     821      47       32       21       15       47.2     38.8     55.6     44.4         11.2     12.3

77         TIME LV        824      51       40       9        11       47.4     38.6     55.8     44.2         11.6     11.5

78         Newsweek RV    825      50       38       12       12       49.4     39.6     56.0     44.0         12.0     11.1

79         FOX LV         830      48       32       21       16       49.6     37.0     57.6     42.4         15.3     12.0

80         CNN LV         902      53       43       4        10       49.8     37.0     57.7     42.3         15.4     13.1

 

81         ABC RV         907      50       42       9        8        50.4     39.0     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.6

82         Pew RV         910      50       39       11       11       50.2     38.8     56.8     43.2         13.6     14.0

83         Gallup RV      910      53       41       7        12       50.8     39.4     56.7     43.3         13.4     14.2

84         FOX LV         913      41       38       21       3        49.4     40.6     55.4     44.6         10.8     13.3

85         Gallup LV      917      48       48       4        0        48.4     41.6     54.4     45.6         8.8      12.0

 

86         CBS/NYT RV     919      50       35       15       15       48.4     40.2     55.2     44.8         10.5     11.4

87         CNN LV         924      55       42       3        13       49.4     40.8     55.3     44.7         10.6     10.8

88         FOX LV         927      49       38       14       11       48.6     40.2     55.3     44.7         10.6     10.3

89         Hotline RV     927      43       33       24       10       49.0     39.2     56.1     43.9         12.2     10.5

90         Zogby LV       928      42       33       25       9        47.8     36.2     57.4     42.6         14.8     11.7

 

91         CNN LV         1002     53       42       5        11       48.4     37.6     56.8     43.2         13.6     12.4

92         AP-Ipsos RV    1004     51       38       11       13       47.6     36.8     57.0     43.0         13.9     13.0

93         Pew RV         1004     51       41       8        10       48.0     37.4     56.8     43.2         13.5     13.6

94         TIME LV        1005     54       39       7        15       50.2     38.6     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.9

95         Newsweek RV    1006     51       39       7        12       52.0     39.8     56.9     43.1         13.8     13.7

 

96         ABC RV         1008     54       41       5        13       52.2     39.6     57.1     42.9         14.2     13.9

97         CNN LV         1008     58       37       5        21       53.6     39.4     57.8     42.2         15.6     14.2

98         Gallup LV      1008     59       36       4        23       55.2     38.4     59.0     41.0         18.1     15.1

99         Harris LV      1009     49       36       15       13       54.2     37.8     59.0     41.0         18.0     16.0

100        FOX LV         1011     50       41       9        9        54.0     38.2     58.7     41.3         17.4     16.7

 

101        CNN LV         1015     56       40       4        16       54.4     38.0     59.0     41.0         17.9     17.4

102        NBC RV         1016     52       37       11       15       53.2     38.0     58.5     41.5         17.0     17.7

103        Newsweek LV    1021     55       37       8        18       52.4     38.2     58.0     42.0         16.1     17.3

104        Gallup LV      1023     54       41       5        13       53.4     39.2     57.8     42.2         15.7     16.8

105        ABC RV         1023     54       41       5        13       54.2     39.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.6

 

106        CNN LV         1022     57       40       3        17       54.4     39.2     58.2     41.8         16.5     16.3

107        Hotline RV     1023     52       34       13       18       54.4     38.6     58.6     41.4         17.2     16.4

108        Zogby LV       1025     44       33       23       11       52.2     37.8     58.2     41.8         16.4     16.4

109        FOX LV         1025     49       38       13       11       51.2     37.2     58.2     41.8         16.3     16.5

110        Newsweek LV    1027     53       39       8        14       51.0     36.8     58.3     41.7         16.6     16.6

 

111        CNN LV         1029     53       42       5        11       50.2     37.2     57.8     42.2         15.5     16.4

112        NBC LV         1030     52       37       11       15       50.2     37.8     57.4     42.6         14.8     15.9

113        CBS/NYT LV     1101     52       33       15       19       51.8     37.8     58.0     42.0         16.1     15.9

114        Newsweek LV    1103     54       38       8        16       52.8     37.8     58.4     41.6         16.9     16.0

115        TIME LV        1103     55       40       5        15       53.2     38.0     58.5     41.5         17.0     16.0

 

116        Pew LV         1104     47       43       10       4        52.0     38.2     57.9     42.1         15.8     16.1

117        ABC LV         1104     51       45       4        6        51.8     39.8     56.8     43.2         13.7     15.9

118       USA/Gallup LV   1106     51       44       4        7        51.6     42.0     55.4     44.6         10.9     14.8

119        CNN LV         1106     58       38       4        20       52.4     42.0     55.8     44.2         11.5     13.8

120        FOX LV         1106     49       36       15       13       51.2     41.2     55.8     44.2         11.5     12.7

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll

 

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.

 

The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

 

In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.

 

The True Vote is given by:

TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched

 

National Exit Poll

Source.....  Dem Rep Other

CNN-7pm     55.2% 43.4% 1.5%

CNN-Final   52.2% 45.9% 2.5%

NYT         53.1% 44.9% 2.0%

 

Reported National Vote

Wikipedia   57.7% 41.8% 0.5%

CBS- Nat    52.7% 45.1% 2.2%

CBS-State   51.3% 46.4% 2.3%

 

 

120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend

Dem = 46.98 + .0419x

Rep = 38.06 + .0047x        

 

Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:

........   Trend + UVA = Projection

Dem =     52.01 + 4.42   =   56.43%

Rep =     38.62 + 2.95   =   41.57%

 

Wikipedia Summary of the November 7, 2006

United States House of Representatives election results

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006

 

 

       Party Seats        Popular Vote

      2004   2006  Chg

Dem   202    233   +31   39,267,916   57.7%    +11.1%

Rep   232    202   -30   28,464,092   41.8%     –7.4%

Ind    1       0    -1       669,707    0.1%     +0.5%

Other  0       0     0      255,876    0.4%     –3.2%

 

Total 435    435     0   68,057,591    100%         

 

Democratic Projection Probabilities

Proj   Freq    Prob

54.0    120     100.0

54.5    119     99.2

55.0    116     96.7

55.5    105     87.5

56.0    92      76.7

56.5    76      63.3

57.0    47      39.2

57.5    31      25.8

58.0    20      16.7

58.5    5       4.2

59.0    1       0.8

 

Note: 76.7% probability that the vote share would exceed 56%

                             

 

National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)

 

VOTED 2004

          --------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 11pm Final --------- ----- True Generic Vote -----      p;           

 

        MIX    Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep     Other   MIX     Dem     Rep        Other

Kerry   45%     93%     6%      1%      43%     92%     7%      1%      49%     93%     6%        1%

Bush    47%     17%     82%     1%      49%     15%     83%     2%      46%     17%     82%        1%

Other   4%      67%     23%     10%     4%      66%     23%     11%     1%      67%     23%        10%

DNV     4%      67%     30%     3%      4%      66%     32%     2%      4%      67%     30%        3%

 

TOTAL   100%    55.2%  43.4%   1.4%    100%    52.2%   45.9%   1.9%    100%    56.7%   42.1%        1.2%

 

 

Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights

 

National Exit Poll (7pm)

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                           

                        7pm

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%

Dem     53.7%   54.4%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.2%   59.0%   59.8%

 

Final National Exit Poll (1pm)

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%                                                           

        1pm   

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%     43%     42%     41%

Dem     52.2%   53.0%   53.7%   54.5%   55.3%   56.0%   56.8%   57.6%   58.4%

 

True Vote 

Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%

                                                        True

Kerry   43%     44%     45%     46%     47%     48%     49%     50%     51%

Bush    52%     51%     50%     49%     48%     47%     46%     45%     44%

Dem     52.2%   52.9%   53.7%   54.5%   55.2%   56.0%   56.7%   57.5%   58.3%

 

 

 

NEP Demographic Timeline Summary  

CNN.com - Elections 2006                                                                                                                                                             

 

            10,207 Respondents                      13,251 Respondents

               7:07pm 11/07                            1:00pm 11/08                           Generic Pre-election Trend       

Categ         Dem      Rep     Other             Dem     Rep      Other    Margin          Dem       Rep     Other    Margin

                         

Vote04       55.20%   43.36%   1.44%            52.19%   45.88%   1.93%    6.31%           57.50%    41.33%   1.17%    16.17%

Gender       55.04%   43.47%   1.49%            52.55%   44.96%   2.49%    7.59%           58.04%    40.47%   1.49%    17.57%

Rac/Gen      54.81%   43.71%   1.48%            52.62%   45.51%   1.88%    7.11%           57.77%    40.23%   0.00%    17.54%

Race         55.10%   43.11%   1.79%            53.34%   44.85%   1.81%    8.49%           57.88%    41.31%   1.81%    16.57%

Age          54.89%   43.44%   1.67%            52.44%   44.92%   1.64%    7.52%           57.89%    40.44%   1.67%    17.45%

 

Income       55.07%   43.27%   1.66%            53.28%   44.89%   1.83%    8.39%           57.92%    40.42%   1.66%    17.50%

Educ         55.05%   43.39%   1.56%            52.95%   45.47%   1.58%    7.48%           57.86%    40.58%   1.56%    17.28%

Decided      57.16%   41.48%   1.35%            54.25%   44.24%   1.51%    10.01%          58.19%    40.45%   1.35%    17.74%

Party        54.50%   43.72%   1.78%            53.04%   45.56%   1.40%    7.48%           57.80%    40.45%   1.75%    17.35%

Ideology     54.42%   43.58%   2.00%            52.53%   45.47%   2.00%    7.05%           57.34%    40.66%   2.00%    16.68%

 

Region       55.04%   43.54%   1.42%            52.74%   45.32%   1.94%    7.42%           57.94%    40.34%   1.94%    17.60%

Religion     54.22%   43.90%   1.88%            52.64%   45.30%   2.06%    7.34%           57.50%    40.62%   1.88%    16.88%

Area         54.84%   43.40%   1.76%            52.79%   45.21%   2.00%    7.58%           57.84%    40.40%   1.76%    17.44%

Senate       55.83%   42.60%   1.57%            55.11%   43.89%   1.00%    11.23%          57.75%    40.83%   1.42%    16.92%

                                                                                                        

Mean         55.08%   43.28%   1.63%            53.03%   45.10%   1.79%    7.93%           57.80%     40.61%   1.53%    17.19%

StDev         0.69%    0.58%    0.18%            0.76%    0.52%    0.34%    1.23%           0.22%     0.32%    0.48%    0.45%

 

 

HOW VOTED IN 2004                                                                                                          

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*        Dem      Rep      Other

Kerry    45%      93%      6%       1%               43%      92%      7%       1%               50%         93%      6%       1%

Bush     47%      17%      82%      1%               49%      15%      83%      2%               45%         17%      82%      1%

Other     4%      67%      23%      10%               4%      66%      23%      11%               1%         67%      23%      10%

DNV       4%      67%      30%      3%                4%      66%      32%      2%                4%         67%      30%      3%

TOTAL    100%     55.20%   43.36%   1.44%            100%     52.19%   45.88%   1.93%            100%        57.50%   41.33%   1.17%

        

                                                                                               

GENDER                                                                                                             

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*         Dem      Rep      Other

Male     49%      53%      45%      2%               49%      50%      47%      3%               48%         55%      43%      2%

Female   51%      57%      42%      1%               51%      55%      43%      2%               52%         59%      40%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.04%   43.47%   1.49%            100%     52.55%   44.96%   2.49%            100%        57.08%   41.44%   1.48%

                                                                                                                   

RACE/GENDER                                                                                                                

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

WM       39%      47%      51%      2%               39%      44%      53%      3%               39%         50%      48%      2%

WF       40%      51%      48%      1%               40%      49%      50%      1%               40%         53%      45%      2%

NWM      9%       76%      22%      2%               9%       75%      23%      2%                9%         78%      20%      2%

NWF      11%      79%      20%      1%               11%      78%      21%      1%               11%         84%      14%      2%

TOTAL    99%      54.26%   43.27%   1.47%            99%      52.09%   45.05%   1.86%            99%         56.96%   40.06%   1.98%

 

WHEN DECIDED

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX***   Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Today    9%       60%      37%      3%               10%      61%      36%      3%                9%         62%      35%      3%

3Days    9%       57%      41%      2%               9%       51%      47%      2%                9%         58%      40%      2%

Week     8%       53%      45%      2%               9%       52%      47%      1%                8%         54%      44%      2%

Month    21%      58%      41%      1%               21%      54%      44%      2%               21%         58%      41%      1%

Before   52%      57%      42%      1%               50%      54%      45%      1%               52%         57%      42%      1%

TOTAL    99%      56.59%   41.07%   1.34%            99%      53.71%   43.80%   1.49%            99%         56.94%   40.72%   1.34%

                                                                                                                   

RACE

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other           MIX          Dem      Rep      Other

White    80%      49%      49%      2%               79%      47%      51%      2%               80%         50%      48%      2%

Black    10%      88%      12%      0%               10%      89%      10%      1%               10%         90%      10%      0%

Latino   8%       72%      26%      2%               8%       69%      30%      1%                8%         74%      24%      2%

Asian    2%       65%      35%      0%               2%       62%      37%      1%                2%         71%      29%      0%

Other    1%       59%      36%      5%               2%       55%      42%      3%                1%         62%      33%      5%

TOTAL    101%     55.65%   43.54%   1.81%            101%     53.89%   45.27%   1.84%            101%        56.96%   42.23%   1.81%

                                                                                                                   

AGE

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX****  Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

18-29    11%      60%      38%      2%               12%      60%      38%      2%               11%         62%      36%      2%

30-44    23%      55%      43%      2%               24%      53%      45%      2%               23%         57%      41%      2%

45-59    33%      55%      44%      1%               34%      53%      46%      1%               33%         58%      41%      1%

60+      33%      53%      45%      2%               29%      50%      48%      2%               33%         54%      44%      2%

TOTAL    100%     54.89%   43.44%   1.67%            99%      52.44%   44.92%   1.64%            100%        56.89%   41.44%   1.67%

                                                                                                                   

INCOME

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

< 15     7%       67%      30%      3%               7%       67%      30%      3%                7%         69%      28%      3%

15-30    12%      63%      35%      2%               12%      61%      36%      3%               12%         65%      33%      2%

30-50    21%      58%      41%      1%               21%      56%      43%      1%               21%         61%      38%      1%

50-75    22%      52%      46%      2%               22%      50%      48%      2%               22%         54%      44%      2%

75-100   15%      53%      46%      1%               15%      52%      47%      1%               15%         54%      45%      1%

100-150 13%       50%      48%      2%               13%      47%      51%      2%               13%         51%      47%      2%

150-200   5%      47%      51%      2%               5%       47%      51%      2%                5%         49%      49%      2%

200+      5%      48%      51%      1%               5%       45%      53%      2%                5%         49%      50%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.07%   43.27%   1.66%            100%     53.28%   44.89%   1.83%            100%        56.95%   41.39%   1.66%

                                                                                                                   

REGION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*     Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NE       22%      64%      35%      1%               22%      63%      35%      2%               22%         66%      33%      2%

MidW     27%      57%      42%      1%               27%      52%      47%      1%               27%         59%      40%      1%

South    29%      45%      54%      1%               30%      45%      53%      2%               30%         48%      50%      2%

West     21%      57%      40%      3%               21%      54%      43%      3%               21%         58%      39%      3%

TOTAL    99%      54.49%   43.10%   1.41%            100%     52.74%   45.32%   1.94%            100%        57.03%   41.25%   1.94%

 

EDUCATION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX***   Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NoHS     4%       64%      35%      1%               3%       64%      35%      1%                4%         67%      32%      1%

HSG      21%      57%      42%      1%               21%      55%      44%      1%               21%         59%      40%      1%

Col      30%      52%      46%      2%               31%      51%      47%      2%               30%         54%      44%      2%

Grad     26%      52%      46%      2%               27%      49%      49%      2%               26%         54%      44%      2%

PostG    19%      60%      39%      1%               18%      58%      41%      1%               19%         62%      37%      1%

TOTAL    100%     55.05%   43.39%   1.56%            100%     52.95%   45.47%   1.58%            100%        57.09%   41.35%   1.56%

                                                                                                                   

EDUCATION

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

NoDeg    54%      55%      43%      2%               55%      53%      45%      2%               54%         55%      43%      2%

Grad     46%      55%      43%      2%               45%      53%      46%      1%               46%         59%      39%      2%

TOTAL    100%     55.00%   43.00%   2.00%            100%     53.00%   45.45%   1.55%            100%        56.84%   41.16%   2.00%

                                                                                                                   

PARTYID

         MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX**    Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Dem      39%      93%      6%       1%               38%      93%      7%       0%               40%         94%      5%       1%

Rep      35%      9%       90%      1%               36%      8%       91%      1%               35%         12%      87%      1%

Ind      26%      58%      38%      4%               26%      57%      39%      4%               25%         61%      35%      4%

TOTAL    100%     54.50%   43.72%   1.78%            100%     53.04%   45.56%   1.40%            100%        57.05%   41.20%   1.75%

                                                                                                        

IDEOLOGY

        MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX*     Dem      Rep      Other            MIX          Dem      Rep      Other

Lib      21%      88%      10%      2%               20%      87%      11%      2%               21%         91%      7%       2%

Mod      48%      62%      36%      2%               47%      60%      38%      2%               48%         64%      34%      2%

Con      32%      21%      77%      2%               32%      20%      78%      2%               32%         22%      76%      2%

TOTAL    101%     54.96%   44.02%   2.02%            99%      52.00%   45.02%   1.98%            101%        56.87%   42.11%   2.02%

                                                                                                                   

RELIGION

        MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX      Dem      Rep      Other            MIX         Dem      Rep      Other

Prot     55%      46%      52%      2%               55%      44%      54%      2%               55%         49%      49%      2%

Cath     26%      56%      43%      1%               26%      55%      44%      1%               26%         58%      41%      1%

Jewish   2%       87%      10%      3%               2%       87%      12%      1%                2%         87%      10%      3%

Other    6%       71%      25%      4%               6%       71%      25%      4%                6%         75%      21%      4%

None     11%      76%      22%      2%               11%      74%      22%      4%               11%         80%      18%      2%

TOTAL    100%     54.22%   43.90%   1.88%            100%     52.64%   45.30%   2.06%            100%        57.07%   41.05%   1.88%

                                                                                                    

 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes

 

The goal of this model wa to determine the percentage of votes which needed to be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9 CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised

voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.

 

Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8% of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted.  Almost one in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.

 

To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.

 

The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.

 

Assuming a 7.0% switch-vote rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%, a close match to the Generic 120-Poll trend line projection.  At an 8.5% switch rate the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching the Wikipedia recorded vote share.

 

Model Assumptions

Switched:  7.00% Dem to Rep

Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast

 

Uncounted Vote Shares

Race Share Reported    Pct     Unctd   Total    Pct     Unctd                 

White   2.0%    62542   81.7%   1276    63819   80.7%   1.61%                 

Other   8.0%    14043   18.3%   1221    15264   19.3%   1.54%                 

Total   3.16%   76585   100%    2497    79082   100%    3.16%                 

 

 

Base Case Summary                                            Switched   TRUE Vote

Dem     75%     40331   52.66%  1873    42204   53.37%  2.45%   2823   45027   56.94%

Rep     23%     34564   45.13%   574    35138   44.43%  0.75%   -2823  32315   40.86%

Other    2%      1690    2.21%    50    1740     2.20%  2.87%    0      1740    2.20%

Total   3.16%   76585   100.0%  2497    79082   100.0%  3.16%    0     79082   100.0%

 

Probability of Vote Discrepancy

MoE     1.50%                                                               

Prob    = NORMDIST (0.5266, 0.5694, 0.015/1.96, TRUE)

1 in    86,082,782    

 

Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched-vote rate

Switch  Dem%   Probability: 1 in

5.0%    56.17% 444,121

6.0%    56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)

6.5%    56.68% 13,359,311

7.0%    56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)

7.5%    57.19% 617,885,835

8.0%    57.45% 4,941,793,389

8.5%    57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)

                                                            

 

U.S. House Vote: CBS News 11/09                

 

         Reported                                   Uncounted                            Switch   TRUE              

         Total    Dem      GOP      Other    Margin   Total%   Dem      Rep      Other    Dem      Dem         Rep      Other    Margin

         76585    52.66%   45.13%   2.21%    7.53%    3.16%    1873     574      50       2823     56.94%      40.86%   2.20%    Diff

        

AL       579      38.7%    60.8%    0.5%     -22.1%   3.7%     16       5        0.4      16       42.6%         56.8%    0.6%     7.1%

AK       202      40.1%    56.9%    3.0%     -16.8%   3.7%     6        2        0.2      6        44.0%         53.0%    2.9%     7.2%

AZ       1127     42.5%    51.1%    6.4%     -8.6%    2.7%     23       8        0.6      34       46.2%         47.5%    6.3%     7.1%

AR       747      60.0%    40.0%    0.0%     19.9%    3.1%     18       6        0.5      31       64.5%         35.5%    0.1%     9.7%

CA       6236     56.9%    39.8%    3.3%     17.2%    3.4%     158      53       4.2      248      61.3%         35.4%    3.3%     9.3%

 

CO       1371     53.1%    41.7%    5.2%     11.4%    2.6%     27       9        0.7      51       57.2%         37.7%    5.1%     8.5%

CT       1079     60.4%    39.0%    0.6%     21.4%    2.9%     23       8        0.6      46       64.9%         34.5%    0.6%     9.6%

DE       509      38.7%    57.2%    4.1%     -18.5%   3.5%     13       4        0.4      14       42.5%         53.4%    4.1%     6.9%

FL       3727     40.2%    58.0%    1.8%     -17.8%   3.1%     88       29       2.3      105      43.9%         54.2%    1.8%     7.0%

GA       1916     41.7%    58.3%    0.0%     -16.6%   4.0%     58       19       1.5      56       45.8%         54.2%    0.1%     7.5%

 

HI       338      65.1%    34.9%    0.0%     30.2%    6.4%     16       5        0.4      15       69.9%         30.0%    0.1%     11.6%

ID       435      39.8%    55.9%    4.4%     -16.1%   2.3%     8        3        0.2      12       43.3%         52.4%    4.3%     6.6%

IL       3127     55.4%    44.2%    0.4%     11.2%    3.2%     75       25       2.0      121      59.7%         39.8%    0.5%     9.1%

IN       1646     48.8%    49.9%    1.3%     -1.1%    2.7%     33       11       0.9      56       52.8%         45.9%    1.4%     7.9%

IA       1028     47.7%    50.6%    1.8%     -2.9%    2.3%     18       6        0.5      34       51.5%         46.7%    1.8%     7.6%

 

KS       827      43.7%    54.4%    1.9%     -10.8%   2.7%     16       5        0.4      25       47.4%         50.6%    1.9%     7.2%

KY       1244     47.9%    49.0%    3.1%     -1.0%    2.6%     24       8        0.6      42       51.8%         45.1%    3.1%     7.8%

LA       901      32.6%    64.4%    3.0%     -31.7%   4.2%     28       9        0.7      21       36.5%         60.6%    3.0%     6.4%

ME       529      65.2%    30.4%    4.3%     34.8%    2.2%     9        3        0.2      24       69.9%         25.8%    4.3%     10.0%

MD       1344     61.6%    35.3%    3.1%     26.3%    4.1%     41       14       1.1      58       66.2%         30.8%    3.0%     10.2%

 

MA       1068     74.3%    18.5%    7.2%     55.7%    2.8%     22       7        0.6      56       79.3%         13.6%    7.1%     11.5%

MI       3516     51.0%    46.2%    2.8%     4.7%     3.1%     83       28       2.2      126      55.2%         42.1%    2.7%     8.4%

MN       2178     53.0%    42.5%    4.5%     10.5%    2.6%     42       14       1.1      81       57.1%         38.4%    4.5%     8.5%

MS       581      43.2%    50.8%    6.0%     -7.6%    4.3%     19       6        0.5      18       47.4%         46.8%    5.9%     7.9%

MO       2050     47.1%    50.3%    2.6%     -3.2%    2.9%     45       15       1.2      68       51.0%         46.4%    2.6%     7.8%

 

MT       805      39.0%    59.1%    1.9%     -20.1%   2.5%     15       5        0.4      22       42.5%         55.6%    1.9%     6.6%

NE       586      43.9%    56.1%    0.0%     -12.3%   2.5%     11       4        0.3      18       47.6%         52.4%    0.0%     7.2%

NV       573      50.1%    45.2%    4.7%     4.9%     3.0%     13       4        0.3      20       54.2%         41.2%    4.6%     8.3%

NH       402      52.0%    47.0%    1.0%     5.0%     2.2%     7        2        0.2      15       56.0%         43.0%    1.0%     8.2%

NJ       1859     51.0%    47.6%    1.3%     3.4%     3.4%     47       16       1.3      66       55.3%         43.4%    1.4%     8.5%

 

NM       545      55.8%    44.2%    0.0%     11.6%    2.9%     12       4        0.3      21       60.1%         39.9%    0.1%     9.0%

NY       3561     64.2%    35.6%    0.2%     28.6%    3.6%     95       32       2.5      160      68.8%         30.9%    0.3%     10.4%

NC       1842     50.8%    49.2%    0.0%     1.5%     3.6%     49       16       1.3      65       55.0%         44.9%    0.1%     8.6%

ND       433      65.6%    34.4%    0.0%     31.2%    2.5%     8        3        0.2      20       70.3%         29.7%    0.0%     10.2%

OH       3763     52.4%    47.4%    0.2%     4.9%     2.9%     82       27       2.2      138      56.5%         43.2%    0.3%     8.5%

 

OK       905      41.2%    57.2%    1.5%     -16.0%   3.3%     22       7        0.6      26       45.0%         53.4%    1.6%     7.2%

OR       1264     56.4%    41.4%    2.2%     15.0%    2.5%     24       8        0.6      50       60.7%         37.1%    2.2%     8.9%

PA       3815     54.0%    44.7%    1.3%     9.3%     2.8%     81       27       2.2      144      58.2%         40.4%    1.3%     8.7%

RI       372      71.0%    11.3%    17.7%    59.7%    2.7%     7        2        0.2      18       75.9%         6.8%     17.3%    11.0%

SC       1072     43.5%    55.3%    1.2%     -11.8%   3.9%     32       11       0.8      33       47.6%         51.2%    1.2%     7.7%

 

SD       667      69.1%    29.4%    1.5%     39.7%    2.7%     13       4        0.4      32       73.9%         24.5%    1.5%     10.7%

TN       1712     50.2%    46.6%    3.2%     3.7%     3.1%     40       13       1.1      60       54.4%         42.5%    3.2%     8.3%

TX       3994     44.6%    51.8%    3.6%     -7.2%    3.0%     90       30       2.4      125      48.5%         48.0%    3.5%     7.5%

UT       549      42.6%    51.5%    5.8%     -8.9%    2.4%     10       3        0.3      16       46.3%         48.0%    5.7%     7.0%

VT       524      53.2%    44.7%    2.1%     8.6%     2.2%     9        3        0.2      20       57.3%         40.6%    2.1%     8.4%

 

VA       2148     37.7%    56.8%    5.5%     -19.1%   3.6%     57       19       1.5      57       41.5%         53.1%    5.4%     6.8%

WA       1309     61.3%    38.1%    0.5%     23.2%    2.9%     28       9        0.8      56       65.9%         33.6%    0.6%     9.7%

WV       446      57.8%    42.2%    0.0%     15.7%    2.3%     8        3        0.2      18       62.2%         37.8%    0.0%     9.0%

WI       1852     54.0%    45.1%    0.8%     8.9%     2.6%     36       12       1.0      70       58.2%         40.9%    0.8%     8.6%

WY       377      48.8%    49.3%    1.9%     -0.5%    2.3%     7        2        0.2      13       52.7%         45.4%    1.9%     7.8%

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Generic Poll Projection Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average

 

This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:

1) Allocating undecided voters (UVA) to the final 120-poll linear trend.

2) Allocating the UVA to the average of the final 10 Generic polls.

 

The 120-poll trend and 10-poll projections matched to within .05%.

 

The reported Democratic vote share was

1) 51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).

2) 52.7% based on CBS national totals.

3) 57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.

4) 52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (11/08).

 

Key model results:

Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,

1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share

2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share

 

The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to chance.

 

120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:

Dem = 46.98 + .0419x

GOP = 38.06 + .0047x  

 

Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:

........Trend + UVA = Projection

Dem =   52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%

Rep =   38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%

 

________________________________________________

 

Projected Democratic Vote Share based on the Final 10-poll Average 

 

Assumption: 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats

 

.............. Dem     GOP     Margin 

Avg     Date    52.0    38.7   13.3

                      

Harris  1023    47      33     14

AP      1030    56      37     19

CBS     1101    52      33     19

Nwk     1103    54      38     16

TIME    1103    55      40     15

 

Pew*    1104    47      43      4

ABC*    1104    51      45      6

USA*    1106    51      44      7

CNN     1106    58      38     20

FOX     1106    49      36     13

 

Average         52.0%   38.7% 13.3%  

UVA             4.4%    2.9%   0.9%    

Projection     56.4%   41.6%   14.8%

CBS State Vote 51.3%   46.4%    4.9%  

Discrepancy    -5.1%    4.8%   -9.9%   

 

3(*) outliers                        

Average        49.67   44.00   5.67

2-party        53.02   46.98  

 

7 polls                       

Average        53.00   36.43   16.57

2-party        59.27   40.73  

 

10 Polls

Average        52.00   38.70   13.30

2-party        57.33   42.67  

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis I

Probability of discrepancy between the aggregate CBS-reported state vote and the 10-poll projection for various margin of error (MoE) and undecided voter allocation (UVA) assumptions.

 

10 Polls      52.00%

60% UVA       4.38%

Projected     56.38%

 

UVA       50%     56.1%   60%   65%   70%     75%

Proj.     55.7%   56.1% 56.4%   56.8% 57.2%   57.5% Democratic projection

Margin    13.3%   14.2% 14.8%   15.5% 16.2%   17.0%

Deviation 4.4%    4.8%   5.1%   5.5%   5.8%   6.2%

                                             

MoE     Probability of Vote Discrepancy

                        1 in

1.25%   219b    36t     1286t    nc     nc      nc

1.50%   151m    5.4b    62b     1.8t    63t     3002t

1.75%   1.8m    25m     157m    1.9b    26b     428b

2.00%   99k     766k    3m      21m     161m    1.4b

 

2.25%   13k     68k     207k    950k    4.8m    27m

2.50%   3k      12k     29k     102k    381k    1.5m

2.75%   1k      3.2k    6.8k    19k     58k     186k

3.00%   446     1.2k    2.2k    5.3k    14k     37k

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis II

Probability of discrepancy between 120 Generic Poll forecast and the Final NEP for various MoE assumptions

 

Democratic vote share:

Exit poll: 52.70%     

Generics:  56.43%     

Deviation:  3.73%     

 

MoE     Probability: 1 in

1.00%   7,474,854,153,312

1.25%   402,249,154

1.50%   1,825,026

1.75%   67,847

 

2.00%   7,787

2.25%   1,728

2.50%   579

2.75%   255

3.00%   135

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Sensitivity Analysis III

Probability of discrepancy betweenWikipedia vote count and the National Exit Poll for various MoE assumptions

 

Democratic share:

Exit poll: 52.7%      

Wikipedia: 57.7%      

Deviation:  5.0%      

 

MoE     Probability: 1 in

1.00%   nc

1.25%   450,359,962,737,050

1.50%   30,938,221,975

1.75%   93,056,001

 

2.00%   2,083,900

2.25%   150,566

2.50%   22,577

2.75%   5,467

3.00%   1,838

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Election Models

 

A number of Excel-based 2004 election models provide the tools necessary for those interested in entering their own assumptions to run the analysis. The numbers don’t lie – they scream fraud. In addition, I have written more than 200 original posts concerning the 2002, 2004 and 2006 elections. After slicing and dicing the data in a myriad of ways, the evidence is overwhelming: Kerry won beyond a reasonable doubt. The reader is encouraged to download the

Election Calculator, Interactive Election Simulation and True Vote Excel models and try to come up with one plausible Bush win scenario. 

 

These are links to 2004 preliminary and final national exit polls

 

11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

 

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

 

2004 Election Model (for viewing only)

The Nov.1, 2004 Election Model projected both the popular and electoral vote using the average of the final 18 national polls and a 25000-election trial Monte Carlo Electoral Vote simulation.  The base case assumption was that 75% of undecided voters would break for Kerry. This resulted in a 51.8-48.2% (2-party) vote and 337 electoral votes. A 5000-trial simulation was executed for each of the five undecided voter scenarios: 60, 67, 75, 80 and 87%.

Kerry won the popular and electoral vote with a 98-99.9% probability (see the summary analysis below).  He led the National polls in every month except September (also show below).  

 

This graph displays the Kerry’s 2-party  pre-election national poll monthly trend.

 

The Election Calculator

Calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1988, as well as for the 2004 state vote in NY, CA, OH and FL. The model includes sensitivity analysis tables and corresponding graphics for various scenario combinations.

 

Interactive Election Simulation

The Interactive Election Simulation (D) determined that Kerry’s won by 51.8-47.2% based on the weighted state exit polls (WPE) and 50.8-48.2% based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll. It contains worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls (WPE, Composite, Best GEO)

2) 18 national pre-election polls, 

3) 12:22am National Exit Poll, 

4) “How Voted in 2000” demographic sensitivity analysis, 

5) state and precinct exit poll response optimizations analysis;

6) Gender vote analysis;

7) Ohio exit poll and

8) Census 2004 vote data.

 

The key assumptions which drive the model are pre-election undecided voter allocation; Exit Poll: “cluster” effect. This graph displays the results of a simulation of state and national pre-election and exit polls.

 

The True Vote Model

The True Vote Model encapsulates the mathematical arguments which strongly suggest that Kerry easily won the 2004 election. It uses 2000/2004 election data, 2000 voter mortality and voter turnout in 2004 in order to determine mathematically feasible (and plausible) weights. The 12:22am NEP vote shares are the base caseassumptions. According to the Census, a total of 125.74mm votes were cast and 3.44mm were uncounted.

 

A powerful sensitivity analysis feature enables the user to view the effects of incremental changes in the assumptions on Kerry’s national vote. Alternative scenario combinations are displayed in various tables.

              

Here’s a challenge to those who still believe Bush won: come up with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario.

(the 12:22am and Final 2pm NEP are available for reference)

 

Enter your own assumptions for:
1) Kerry's share of New, Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters

2) Turnout of Gore, Bush, Other 2000 voters in 2004
3) Uncounted votes as a % of total votes cast (2.74% according to the 2004 Census)

 

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation  

Illustrates how the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem apply to various polling sample sizes.

 

The MATH: Probability and Statistics   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_statistical_topics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_probability_topics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_sampling http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustration_of_the_central_limit_theorem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_identically-distributed_random_variables http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_power http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Testing_hypotheses_suggested_by_the_data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_numerical_analysis_topics#Monte_Carlo_method

________________________________________________________________

Part II:  Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

 

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ

by Mark Lindeman

 

TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at

http://www.truthisall.net. TIA argues, among other things, that the 2004 U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry

won the election.

 

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

I don't know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an "Excel expert." His allegations of election fraud -- in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election -- formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

 

Many people believe that TIA's arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA's arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don't bother to try to refute them. I do not like to see weak arguments go unchallenged. (But plenty of people have criticized TIA's arguments -- I make no claim to originality.)

 

I also think that these particular weak arguments lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

 

(Now that the Democrats have won House and Senate majorities in the 2006 election, argument #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Republicans stole some votes and even some seats, but that either for some reason they could not -- or did not dare? -- steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

 

OK, so what are TIA's arguments?

He has many posts, but many of them make these basic claims:

Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.

Well-established political generalizations, such as the "incumbent rule," buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

The exit polls gave Kerry a lead in the popular vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry's vote total. (This claim is largely true, although not everything TIA says about it is.)

 

Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls

at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters -- and that can't have happened.

 

It is pretty easy to look around and determine that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Karl Rove. It could be that political scientists simply haven't looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA's arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it's worth, I will explain at some length why I don't agree with TIA's views.

 

Please note that this is not a one-size-fits-all election integrity FAQ.

 

Do you think that electronic voting machines are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

 

I do, although I certainly don't agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don't know. I doubt it, but I haven't set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election -- in fact, I agree with several of them. But the arguments (by TIA and others) that Kerry won the popular vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA's writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

 

TIA:

These are just a few well-known researchers whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. Miller, Bob Fitrakis, Michael Keefer, John Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc.  At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

 

It would be useful if you would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Bush won the election fairly in 2004.  How do they account for his 3 million vote “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters which were added to his 2000 total (net of voter mortality and turnout)? What are their confirming demographics?  Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? What is their track record?  Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling?  What was the time period between Election Day and their final projections?

________________________________________________________________

 

TruthIsAll FAQ: (1)

The Pre-Election Polls

 

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry. The summary of "final trial heats" at pollingreport.com shows Bush ahead in 10, Kerry ahead in 3, and one tied. (The average margin was Bush +1.45%.) Among the "pollster vote projections" (in which the pollsters may make subjective judgments about how undecided voters are likely to vote), five favor Bush, two favor Kerry, and one is a tie. (For what it is worth, both projections favoring Kerry are attributed to Democratic pollsters; one projection favoring Bush is attributed to a Republican pollster. So among nominally neutral pollsters, Bush was ahead in four projections and tied in the fifth; the average margin was Bush +1.3%.)

 

Please note that every single one of these polls yielded a result within its statistical margin of error, even assuming that the polls were otherwise perfect. So they certainly don't justify high confidence that Bush was "really" ahead, much less that he was destined to win. Some folks might say that the polls revealed a "statistical tie," but that characterization throws away useful information. As I said, most of the polls put Bush slightly ahead.

 

Yet TruthIsAll argued, in his final Election Model, that the pre-election polls gave Kerry a 99.99% probability of winning the popular vote (as well as a 99.8% probability of winning the electoral vote). Why are his numbers so different? There are two main reasons.

 

First, TruthIsAll uses poll results for all registered voters, rather than for likely voters, whenever possible. Presumably he believes that the pollsters were biased toward understating Kerry support. In many surveys, people who are least likely to vote tend to favor Democratic candidates. So, for instance, the final pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center gave Bush a 3-point lead among "likely voters," but gave Kerry a 1-point  lead among all "registered voters." TruthIsAll uses the figure that puts Kerry ahead, even though Pew itself headlined the report, "Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign." [More on turnout and likely voters below.]

 

Second, TruthIsAll assumes that undecided voters will (or did) sharply favor Kerry. (His final model assumed that 75% of undecided voters would vote for Kerry -- although, in fairness, he also considered alternative proportions.) [More on undecided voters on the next page.

 

TIA:

Kerry and Bush were essentially tied at 48 in the final national pre-election polls, but the trend of undecided voters was to Kerry. Of the 18 national polls analyzed in the pre-Election Model, 9 were registered voter (RV) and 9 were likely voter (LV). Kerry led in 11 of the 18 polls, Bush in 6. The ABC RV poll was a tie. Kerry led the 18-poll average by 47.8-47.7% and the 9-RV poll average by 47.2-46.7%. Bush led the 9-LV poll average by 48.8-48.4%.  Kerry led the 18-pre-election poll average every month except for January and September. The 0.87 statistical correlation between the 11-poll average Bush monthly approval and average poll was close to a perfect 1.0.

 

Final Election Day Zogby and Harris LV polls were not included in the Nov.1 election model. Both had Kerry winning by 50-47%.  Including these polls, Kerry led in 13 by 48.0-47.5%.  But that was before the allocation of undecided voters. Harris and Zogby said they were breaking 2-1 to 4-1 for Kerry. The 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had Kerry winning the 6% of voters who decided on Election Day by 53-40% and the 10% who decided during the month prior to the election by 60-38%. So there is no doubt that Kerry won a solid majority of late undecided voters. The Nov.1 Election Model included a sensitivity analysis based on 5 undecided voter scenarios in which Kerry was projected to win 60, 67, 75, 80 and 87% of the undecided vote.

 

You continue to reject the historical fact that late undecided voters would break for the challenger, Kerry. But world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris, who have a combined 60 years of polling experience, indicated that their Election Day polling Kerry won undecided voters by 67-75%.  The National Exit Poll also reported that Kerry won a clear majority of undecided voters. This was not unusual; historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger over 80% of the time, especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. Final Zogby polls in nine battleground states had Kerry leading by an average of 50-45%. He was projected to win all nine by 53-46%, but only won five by 50-49%. The margin of error was exceeded in six states - a 1 in 52 million probability.

 

You dismiss the significance of the Bush 48.5% approval rating on Election Day. But all presidential incumbents with approval below 50% lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while all incumbents over 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton). The near-perfect 0.87 correlation  between Bush’s monthly approval rating and national poll average share is further evidence. The correlation was confirmed by the 12:22am National Exit Poll which Kerry won by 51-48%.

 

You overlook the fact that 41 states switched to Bush from the final pre-election polls to the recorded vote. But none of the 10 states which switched to Kerry was a battleground state. Forty-three states red-shifted to Bush from the 12:22am exit polls. Oregon was the only battleground state which shifted to Kerry – by less than one percent. It’s also the only state in which voting is done by mail. Was this all just a coincidence, a case of bad polling or an indication that fraud occurred?

 

 This is a graph of the 2004 National Pre-election Polls Monthly Trend

 

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how "undecided" voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error. I argue below that his assumptions are more wrong than right. They certainly aren't 100% reliable. (TruthIsAll himself suggests that the polls might be biased -- against Kerry, of course.)

 

TIA:

 Mark says that my assumptions are not “100% reliable” and “are more wrong than right”.  What does 100% reliability mean when it comes to assumptions?

And how are they more wrong than right? Let’s take a close look at some assumptions.

 

-Does he mean the base case 12:22am NEP vote shares? 

The sensitivity analysis provides a range of assumptions: 2000 voter turnout, Kerry’s share of returning Gore, Bush, Nader voters and others who did not

vote in 2000. Which assumptions does he believe are more wrong than right?

 

-Does he mean the undecided voter allocation? 

I provide a 60-87% undecided voter allocation range (see the Monte Carlo EV sensitivity analysis). The 75% base case matches that of world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris. I trust their combined 70 years of experience a lot more than the Mystery Pollster. What polls did he run?  Is Mark implying that MP knows more than Zogby and Harris?

 

-Does he mean the Margin of Error? 

I use pre-election state poll 600- sample MoE (4%)  to compute the MoE. The state exit poll MoE is adjusted for a user-entered cluster effect.

 The 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 sample) adjusted for a 30% cluster effect yields a 1.12% MoE.  In the notes to the NEP, Edison-Mitofsky claim the MoE is 1.0%.  http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NEP13047.mht

 

-Does he mean the annual mortality rate?

I use the published U.S. 0.87% annual rate. It’s a fact.

 

-Does he mean the assumption that only living Gore, Bush or Nader 2000 voters could have voted in 2004? 

It’s a fact.  Or does he believe in reincarnation?

 

-Does he mean the random sampling assumption?

I refer once again to Edison-Mitofsky’s notes (link above).

 

-Does he mean the assertion that the Final NEP “How Voted in 2000” weights (43% Bush / 37% Gore) and corresponding vote shares were drastically changed to match the Bush 51-48% vote? 

It’s a fact. The Final NEP has always been matched the recorded vote.

 

-Does he disagree that the “How Voted in 2000” weights were mathematically impossible?

It’s a fact. Do the math.

 

-Does he disagree that matching to the NEP only makes sense if the election is fraud-free?

Is it his assumption that 2004 was fraud-free? What about 2000, 2002 and 2006?

 

-Does he disagree with the overwhelming statistical evidence that the election was stolen?

In light of the above, is that not a fair conclusion?

 

1.3. Doesn't the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

 

No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout. For technical reasons, it is hard to compare pollsters' various turnout assumptions to the official figures, but the survey results don't change very sharply if we change turnout assumptions by a few points. To include every respondent who claims to be registered would include many people who have very little prospect of voting.

 

In Pew's final pre-election poll (data available for download here), Pew scored over 62% of its respondents as "likely voters," scoring 8 or 9 on its 0-to-9 likely voter scale. (Actually, this percentage is weighted -- for instance, young respondents weighh more heavily than older ones. The unweighted results are even less favorable to Kerry.) The actual presidential turnout in 2004 is estimated by Dr. Michael McDonald at about 60.3% of the eligible voting-age population. In order for Kerry to take a slight lead in the Pew survey, one must either include all voters scoring as low as 5 on the likely voter scale -- which implies about 77% voting-age turnout -- or assume that about three quarters of all undecided voters would vote for Kerry. In order to give Kerry an appreciable lead, one has to jack up the projected turnout and allocate the vast majority of undecided voters to Kerry.

 

By strange coincidence, TruthIsAll did exactly that: he jacked up the turnout to include all self-reported registered voters (which, in the Pew survey, would be about 80% voting-age turnout, or around 160 million voters nationwide instead of 120 million), and allocated three quarters of undecided voters to Kerry. Presto, Kerry took the lead.

 

In January 2005, TIA claimed, "Any reputable pollster will tell you that in this election, RV's were a more accurate gauge of the vote." What a strange claim. Pollingreport.com reports (here and on the following "earlier" pages) likely-voter results from well over a dozen separate pollsters. Were they all disreputable? Did they all repudiate their likely-voter models?

 

TIA:

It’s nonsense to extrapolate voter turnout based on the type of poll. Pollingreport.com also provides companion RV polls from these same pollsters. Nine of the final 18 national polls in my pre-election model were RVs – and presto!  Kerry won 5. Nine were LV’s – and presto! Kerry won 6! You could look it up.

________________________________________________________________

 

1.4. How about the state polls?

There TIA's data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don't. While the national polls (prior to TIA's massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well. The median state poll in TIA's analysis, prior to TIA's allocation of undecideds, had a Kerry margin about 2.8 points larger than Kerry's actual performance. After allocating undecideds 75% to Kerry, the median discrepancy is about 4.5 points.Looking at the crucial battleground states, the discrepancies don't seem very suspicious.

 

TruthIsAll had Kerry ahead by three points in Ohio, but only one Ohio poll out of the last ten actually put Kerry ahead. (This discrepancy could owe to flukes of timing, TIA's preference for registered-voter results, and/or TIA's reported propensity to ignore certain survey results he regards as biased.) Thus, although TIA's final model (again, the link -- find "OH") gave Kerry an 866.49% probability of winning Ohio, most observers would have leaned in the other direction. In my roundup, combining RealClearPolitics.com and electoral-vote.com figures, Bush had an average 1.9-point lead in the Ohio polls, quite close to his official margin of 2.1 points. (By the way, I checked two sources to ensure that RealClearPolitics' evident political bias didn't seep into its poll reporting; the results are closely comparable. Below, I link to RCP because its tables are easier to read.)

 

Similarly, because of TIA's allocation of most undecideds to Kerry, his Interactive Election Simulation spreadsheet gave Kerry a 73% chance of winning Florida despite depicting the race as nominally tied in the polls. In his final model report, Kerry has over an 86% probability of winning Florida. (The RealClearPolitics.com roundup gives Bush a narrow average margin of 0.6 points, with Bush ahead in 4 polls, Kerry ahead in 3, and the other 2 tied.) Bush did clearly do better in Florida than polls had projected, winning by just over 5 points.

 

Kerry won Pennsylvania as projected -- although even there, TIA's 96.69% proobability in the final model seems misplaced. Kerry's 2.3-point winning margin in Pennsylvania was smaller than TIA's estimated 5 points prior to allocating undecideds. However, in the RealClearPolitics.com roundup, no poll put Kerry more than 4 points ahead; the average was 0.9 points, and the median was 2 points.

 

In summary, first of all, TruthIsAll's simulation results asserting a 99.8% probability that Kerry would win the electoral vote depended heavily on very favorable assumptions about Ohio and Florida. Second, the state polls may have overstated Kerry's official vote share, although part of the overstatement probably owes to TIA's selection of polls. (Later I will consider the argument that the state-level pre-election poll discrepancies and the exit poll discrepancies support each other as evidence of fraud.)

 

TIA: 

You fail to distinguish between weighted and unweighted averages, claiming Bush led the pre-election state polls. But you used an unweighted average to derive the national share. Kerry led the national weighted average (based on state voting population) from July to Election Day, except for a brief period in September.  Kerry also led in the national pre-election polls all year.

 

You use the median of the data set when you should be using the weighted mean.  Despite your protestations to the contrary, the pre-election polls did NOT match the official recorded vote, but DID match the exit polls. Kerry led the 18 nationals by a slight 0.5% - before my so-called undecided allocation “massaging”. Allocating undecided voters is necessary for projecting the final vote. Even professional pollsters do it. It’s foolish to ignore undecided voters, especially when a very unpopular president with a 48% approval rating is running. I believe Zogby and Harris.

 

Go here to see how the individual pre-election state and exit polls compared to each other - and to the recorded vote.

 

On the other hand, matching the Final NEP to a miscounted recorded vote is not massaging; at best, it’s inadvertent poll-rigging and intellectually dishonest. It implies ZERO fraud. There is no justification for matching the Final Exit Poll to the recorded vote. It’s just catapulting the propaganda for an illegitimate regime. The use of bogus, mathematically impossible weights and implausible vote shares in order to match the Final National Exit Poll to a fraudulent vote count is, well…fraudulent.

 

The Interactive Election Simulation graph displays the results of a 200- election trial run. In PA, Kerry’s RECORDED exit poll margin understated his TRUE margin by 5%. As for Ohio, you apparently still believe that Bush won the state. Kerry won the OH exit poll by 52-48%. And you claim that Bush clearly did better in Florida (he “won” by 5 points). Once again, you fall into the insidious trap of implicitly assuming that the RECORDED vote was fraud-free.

 

1.5. What about cell phones?

TIA and others have argued that the pre-election polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones -- and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry. Scott Keeter, drawing on a close analysis of Pew Research Center survey data, has concluded that because the polls are weighted to match the age distribution in the population, cell-phone-only voters had little effect on the polls' accuracy. "While cell-only voters were more supportive of John Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to voters within their own age cohort."

 

(Keeter's findings also appeared in Public Opinion Quarterly.) Certainly Pew's age weightings seem fairly close to the mark. For instance, in their final pre-election poll (weighted), respondents aged 18-24 comprise 8.5% of the likely voters, and respondents 18-34 total 22.9%.

 

In the Current Population Survey, self-reported voters 18-24 are 9.3% of all voters, and voters 18-34 are approximately 23.8% (derived from Table B). If one assumes, generously, that voters 18-24 favored Kerry about 60% to 40%, then any underrepresentation of young voters may have cost Kerry a small fraction of a percentage point in Pew's likely voter estimate.

 

TIA:

 In 2004, 122.3 million votes were recorded. According to voting records cited by Greg Palast, over 3 million additional votes were uncounted (spoiled, provisional, absentees, etc), confirming the 2004 Census Vote Survey (0.30% MoE) which indicated that 125.7mm voted. Approximately 27 million (22% of 125.7mm) were voters who did not vote (DNV) in 2000.

 

According to the 7:33pm National Exit Poll, about 61% of DNV (16.5mm) were NEW voters (mostly younger cell-phone users). Kerry won the DNV group by 59-39% (5.4mm votes). According to the 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents) Kerry won DNV by 57-41% (4.4m votes).Assuming that Kerry’s share of NEW voters was equal to his total DNV vote share, then his vote margin was approximately 3.0m among these NEW voters. Since Kerry lost the RECORDED vote by 3 million, the number of NEW voters was a significant component of the TRUE Kerry vote.  

________________________________________________________________

 

TruthIsAll FAQ: (2)

The "Rules": Did They Favor Kerry?

 

2.1. Don't undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in "allocating" reported undecided voters in presidential elections. In fact, overall, reported undecideds seem to break about evenly.

 

In support of the claim that undecideds break for the challenger, TruthIsAll has cited an essay by Chris Bowers at MyDD. Bowers canvassed 28 presidential polls going back to 1976, and concluded that "undecideds break overwhelmingly -- better than 6 to 1 -- in favor of the challenger in a Presidential race." But a close reading reveals that Bowers did not examine declared "undecided" voters at all!

 

Bowers basically found that on average, incumbents did about 0.3 points better than the final polls indicated, while challengers did about two points better – indeed a ratio of more than 6 to 1. This result mostly had nothing to do with undecided voters. Nine of the 28 surveys were from 1996, a year in which the pre-election polls overstated incumbent Bill Clinton's winning margin by over 4 points on average. Five of those surveys reported no undecided voters whatsoever -- and their errors were not systematically different from the other four surveys'. (The second most accurate survey that year reported 11% undecided, equalling the other eight surveys combined.) Clearly Bowers's analysis cannot be used as a guide to allocate reported undecided voters. At most it might imply that challengers tend to do well when some polls report a lot of undecideds, but I see little support for even this inference.

 

I examined a total of 31 presidential polls going back to 1972, using the same National Council on Public Polls dataset used by Bowers. (1972 was the earliest year with multiple polls, at least one of which reported undecided voters.) In some elections, the polls with higher reported undecided rates indicated less net support for the incumbent than the other polls; in others, they indicated greater incumbent support. Overall, the results indicate no statistically significant relationship between percentage undecided and incumbent support. Thus, there is no statistical support for altering the margin to account for reported undecideds. Another way to say that is that reported undecideds seem to break about evenly (since allocating them doesn't appreciably alter the margin), perhaps slightly toward the challenger on average. But every election and every poll is different, so it is probably best just to say that we don't know.

 

TIA:

You neglect to mention that in our previous discussions (on DU and elsewhere), I cited a 155- election survey in which challengers won the undecided vote in 127 and incumbents won the undecided vote in just 19.

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

 

This is what the Gallup poll said about undecided voters:

“In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent”.

 

You also fail to mention that I have referred to world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris. They have stated that challengers typically win over 2/3 of the undecided vote. The reason is straightforward. Voters are undecided when they are not enthusiastic about the incumbent.  Bush had a 48.5% average rating in Election Day. A clear majority were NOT satisfied with his performance - especially undecided voters.

 

Assuming that Kerry got 2/3 of the late undecided votes, he was poised to be 51.5-47.5% winner. My pre-election model forecast a 51.3 - 47.7% Kerry win based on final state pre-election polls and 51.1 - 47.9% based on the final 18 national pre-election polls.  The exit polls indicate that Kerry won a solid majority of the late undecided voters (last three days), as well as those who decided in the last month (60-38%).

 

This is what Zogby had to say about undecided voters and Bush approval ratings a few days before the election:

So, first of all, the numbers. We have been looking for months at what we call a virtual tie between Kerry and Bush. I can report to you this morning that it's an actual tie. It's 47 percent for Kerry and 47 percent for Bush. You will note that my hair is a little grayer these days than it has been, where we stand today, we have approximately 5 percent undecided. We go as low as 4 percent undecided on some days.

 

Who are these undecided voters? They do tend to be Independents, that is, in terms of party affiliation. They do tend to be moderates, meaning not liberal and not conservative. Unlike previous years, they tend to be middle-aged voters, meaning not young and not old.  We have polled them – the undecideds, that is. We have also done focus groups among undecideds. Contrary to popular belief, contrary to what I, personally, believed; these undecideds generally have told us that they had their minds made up in the past. This is a new phenomenon for them. They also told us that they were paying attention. They could identify for us basically where each candidate stood on the issues. Since we did the focus groups in the so called "battleground states" of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Minnesota, they told us that they have seen campaign commercials.

 

Here are some of the things that we have found out among undecided voters: They like the President as a person. They give the President good marks for leadership and decisiveness. They appear to be very much opposed to the war and to the way that we got into the war. They give the President good marks on personal morality and family values. At the same time, they tell us that they like John Kerry, that he is smart enough, they believe that he is competent enough to be President. They also feel that John Kerry is one that they identify with on their issues, which are domestic issues that we heard about, the economy and health care, education and so on. They have questions about whether or not they trust Kerry, about whether or not they believe where he stands on issues. They do tend to say, and I guess after hearing so many commercials and seeing so many commercials, that they feel that Kerry is a person who changes his position to win popular support.

 

The undecideds told us that they're passionate, that they will vote. Some of them indicated that they were actually agonizing over their choice. And they also told us that they're genuinely undecided.  Significantly, from the polling, and not from the focus groups, we find that only 1 in 5 of the undecided voters tell us that the President of the United States deserves to be reelected. Between one-third and 40 percent, so between 30 and 40 percent of the undecideds tell us that they feel it is time for someone new, and then half of the undecideds are not sure, or they're undecided, about that question, the President.

 

Now, on the basis of history, if history is any guide whatsoever, I still believe: number one, that the race is about the incumbent, a referendum on the incumbent, and the fact that the incumbent has not broken 48 percent suggests to me that the President is not polling good numbers for reelection. In addition to that, in terms of the other barometric readings that I look at, you still have a net negative of voters who say that the President is not doing a good job. He gets a negative job performance rating. He gets a negative reelect, meaning slightly more people think it's time for someone new than that he deserves to be reelected. And slightly more people feel that the country is headed on the wrong direction. Now, the President has improved all of those numbers, but they're still not reelection numbers. In addition to that, on the top five issues that the voters tell us are tops on their minds, the President leads in one of those issues, fighting the war on terrorism: He leads substantially against Senator Kerry. Among the other four issues, Senator Kerry leads by double digits over the President.

 

The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win, perhaps, possibly (laughter) -- have I made myself clear here? Okay. That traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush. The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness”.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is what Harris Interactive said about undecided voters:

 

Final Pre-election Harris Polls: Still Too Close to Call but Kerry Makes Modest Gains

 

“The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory. Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004.  The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

 

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the election, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.

 

About one percentage point of the current difference probably reflects the inclusion in the online sample of people with cell phones but no landline (and therefore not included in the telephone survey) who favor Kerry by a wide margin”.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is what Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, said about undecided voters and Bush approval:

 

Is the presidential race still too close to call?

Yes. No matter how you look at the data, the two major-party candidates are neck and neck. Gallup's final Oct. 29-31 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that if all registered voters actually turn out (which is not likely to happen, of course), John Kerry wins over George W. Bush by two points.

Among likely voters, including our estimate of what the remaining undecided voters will do on Election Day, the race is dead even at 49% for each candidate.

 

Analyzing the data in other ways, such as modifying likely voter assumptions and changing turnout estimates, doesn't make a substantial difference in the election predictions. The support for both candidates is basically in the upper-40% range, and the final popular vote may well depend on which side is best able to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.

 

How does Gallup decide how to "allocate" undecided voters?

The allocation procedure is a Gallup tradition, and represents Gallup scientists' best estimate of what the final popular vote will be on Election Day.Here's how it works. The unallocated numbers in the pool of likely voters (that is, the percentages of likely voters supporting Bush and Kerry, not including undecided voters) are 49% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. We assume, based on an analysis of previous presidential and other elections, that there is a high probability that the challenger (in an incumbent race) will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote than he did in the last pre-election poll, while there is a high probability that the incumbent will maintain his share of the vote without any increase.

This has been dubbed the "challenger rule."

 

There are various explanations for why this may occur, including the theory that any voter who maintains that he or she is undecided about voting for a well-known incumbent this late in the game is probably leaning toward voting for the challenger.This persistent historical pattern is the basis for Gallup's decision to allocate the 3% undecided vote to Kerry and Nader/other, making the final estimate 49% Bush, 49% Kerry and 2% Nader/other.

 

How might the president's job approval rating influence the outcome of the election?

A president's job approval rating is an important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now. Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%.

 

But the last two presidents who lost (George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter) had job approval ratings much worse than George W. Bush's 48%. He is clearly not as bad off as they were. On the other hand, the winners all had job approval ratings well above 50%. Bush is in a gray zone when it comes to his job approval rating.

 

What is the impact of turnout among younger voters?

We've heard a lot about the impact of younger voters this year. The data indeed show that Kerry does better among younger voters -- that is, those under age 30. Among all national adults in that age group, Kerry wins by a 59% to 34% margin.

 

 _______________________________________________________________

 

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don't do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

 

On average, it is true that incumbents don't do better -- or, rather, much better -- than their predicted shares in the final polls. As noted above, in the polls examined by Bowers (and by me), on average, incumbents did about 0.3 points better than the final polls indicated.

 

Averages can be misleading, and this one is. Remember the old joke about the hapless target shooter who grazes a tree with one shot, kills a bystander with the next, but brags that on average he nailed the bullseye? Well, in two of the five elections in the Bowers analysis (the five being 1996, 1992, 1984, 1980,

and 1976), the incumbent improved his vote share by about 2 points over the polls. In 1984, Ronald Reagan averaged 57% over six polls and got 58.8% in the official returns. In 1976, Gerald Ford averaged 45.7% over three polls (although that average is influenced by one poll that is much lower than the others) and got 48.0% in the official returns.

 

These elections are partly offset by 1996, not only because Clinton actually earned a lower vote share than predicted in the polls (50.3% in the polls, 49.2% in the vote), but because there were more polls in that year. So, on average, the incumbent poll figures are close to the official percentages. George W. Bush's 2004 share across the 14 trial heats in the pollingreport.com roundup was about 48.5%; his official vote share was 50.7%. Thus, an improvement of about two points, as in 1976 and 1984 -- hardly a wild exception to a well-established rule.

 

TIA:

I refer you to the preceding Zogby and Harris statements. Apparently, you disregard their combined 70 years of polling experience. You resort to citing a 2% deviation from the vote in 2 of the five elections. Reagan won a landslide. To say that he did 2% better in the poll average than the vote is reaching. As for Ford, you cite a limited 3-poll average. Since one of the three polls was much lower than the average, Ford’s vote share had to be lower than his other poll numbers indicated. Why not provide the actual poll results?

 

Once again, you assume that Bush’s true vote was 50.7%, and that there was no fraud. That is not a good assumption to make. This is analogous to the Final Exit Poll matching to an assumed fraud-free recorded vote count.  My exit poll analysis indicates that the true Bush vote was 47%. The pre-election projection model had Kerry leading the final 18 national poll average by 48-47%.

 

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don't win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

 

TIA has stated that Bush's approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the "average of 11 polls." I'm not sure which polls are included in that figure; different surveys typically yield slightly higher or lower approval figures. During October 2004, the Gallup Poll reported six approval figures for Bush: two above 50%, three below 50%, and one exactly 50%. The last pre-election survey put him at 48% approval, 47% disapproval, and 5% "not sure." Gallup's two November polls gave Bush 52% and 55% approval.) So, Bush's final Gallup approval rating was below 50%, although not very far below. So, is a final Gallup approval rating (slightly) below 50% a sure sign of imminent defeat? Starting in 1972, TIA cites three incumbents with approval ratings below 50, and two with approval ratings in the 50s. In order of approval rating, they are:

 

Year	Incumbent	Approval rating	Vote share
1992	Bush (I)	30	46.5%
1980	Carter	31	45.4%
1976	Ford	46	48.9%
1996	Clinton	55	54.7%
1972	Nixon	59	61.8%

 

(By the way, TIA's 1992 figure appears to be from late September. A Gallup/Newsweek poll in late October gave Bush a 37% approval rating, which does not much alter the analysis. I do not know why TIA excluded 1984; a Gallup poll in late October showed Reagan at 58% approval, and he won 59.2% of the vote.)

 

Notice that prior to 2004, there is no incumbent with an approval rating between 46 and 55. So, one might say it is a rule that "incumbents with approval ratings under 50 never win." But one might just as accurately say that "incumbents with approval ratings over 46 always win." Does one of these statements make more sense than the other? For what it is worth, let's examine a plot of final approval ratings vis-a-vis incumbent two-party vote shares from 1956 on.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse_image001

 

In the plot above, the dashed blue line is the best-fit line for all these elections. The solid purple line is the best-fit line excluding the 1956 and 1964 elections, which appear to be out of trend. (The 1956 and 1964 approval ratings are from summer polls -- as are the 1972 and 1976 ratings.) Either way, it appears that incumbents with approval ratings over 45 are likely to win! The thinner, vertical purple line depicts this break-even point. (Notice that Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992 each won over 45% of the two-party vote despite approval ratings in the low 30s.) Note also that 2004 lies below the best-fit lines: if anything, Bush might have been expected to do slightly better in the election based on his approval rating. With so few data points, it would be fairest to say that the election could have gone either way.

 

TIA: 

Carter and Bush both LOST and had approval ratings below 50%. You can have your own theories, but not your own facts. And the FACT is that ALL incumbents with final approval ratings under 50% LOST the election – and that includes Bush. Your attempt to twist this FACT is patently obvious. Your scatter plot is just a diversion.  Why don’t you just accept this FACT and move on?

 

The 0.87 correlation between the Bush 11-poll average 2004 monthly approval rating and his monthly pre-election 18-poll average was close to a perfect 1.0, indicating a very strong relationship. His Election Day approval rating was 48.5%. Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

_______________________________________________________________

 

TruthIsAll FAQ: (3)

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

 

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

 

That's a long story. Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election -- although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections. Mostly, the exit polls are used to provide information about who voted for whom and why. This purpose explains why the exit poll questionnaires are so long -- containing up to 30 questions.

 

In 2004, the exit pollsters chose anywhere from 15 to 55 precincts in each state for their exit poll sample: a total of 1480 precincts nationwide. Interviewers are sent to the corresponding polling places, some of which host more than one precinct. At some polling places, interviewers were instructed to approach every voter; at most, interviewers were instructed to approach every "Xth" voter, where X could be anywhere from 2 to 10. This instruction is intended to provide a random sample within the precinct; the value of X is chosen to obtain about 100 completed questionnaires per polling place.

 

The interviewers ask each approached voter to complete the exit poll questionnaire (attached to a clipboard). Slightly over half of the approached voters agreed to complete the questionnaire. Three times during the day, the interviewers call in tallied results for reported votes (presidential and often statewide races), plus all the answers on a subsample of questionnaires. In some states with many early/absentee voters, the exit pollsters also conduct telephone surveys of these early voters. (In vote-by-mail Oregon, only a telephone survey is conducted.)

 

Back at 'exit poll central,' the exit pollsters use these data in two ways: to make projections and tabulations. Projections are estimates of the vote shares in each state (and DC), together with measures of the uncertainty in those estimates. These projections initially are based on the interview tallies, which are compared with past results from the same precincts. Sometimes the interview tallies alone suffice to "call" the winner of a state with great confidence, especially if the race was not expected to be very close to begin with. Often the interview tallies are inconclusive. In these more competitive states, the exit pollsters continually update their projections to incorporate actual vote counts. The analysts examine both "quick counts" from the exit poll precincts and selected other precincts, and cumulative county-level totals. As quick counts become available, they replace the interview data in the projections.

 

Tabulations "break down" the vote share by various categories: for instance, gender, family income, or religious affiliation. These tabulations are computed for each state and for a special national sample. Preliminary tabulations were released for each state as the polls closed, and later updated to match the updated projections -- in effect, to match the official returns. (Actually, the initial tabulations were weighted to match the composite projections, which incorporate not only interview data but pre-election expectations.) National tabulations were updated several times, incorporating interview data and official returns from various states as they became available. Such tabulations, as posted on CNN.com, became the basis for much of the exit poll controversy.

 

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?

 

It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls; Steve Freeman, for instance, in his well-known 2004 paper, focuses on Germany and Utah. There is no single measure of exit poll accuracy, and even if there were, we wouldn't know what it equaled for all past U.S. exit polls. If you look closely, many of the arguments boil down to assertions that the exit polls should be accurate.

 

One useful accuracy measure is the "Within Precinct Error" (WPE), which basically equals the percentage difference between the exit poll margin and the official margin for each precinct. By convention, WPE is positive if the Republican candidate does better in the exit poll than in the official count, and negative if the Democratic candidate does better in the exit poll. (For instance, if Kerry led in a precinct exit poll by 5 points, but trailed in the official count by 3 points, the WPE would be -8 points.)

 

We know that in the last five large-scale presidential exit polls*, the average WPE has always been substantially negative, overstating the Democratic performance: -2.2 points in 1988, -5.0 points in 1992, -2.2 points in 1996, -1.8 points in 2000, and -6.5 points in 2004. (See page 34 of the evaluation report.) So, as far as we can tell from WPE, no recent exit poll has been accurate within the margin of error. And the 1992 survey was almost as far off as the 2004 survey. As Mark Blumenthal has pointed out, the documentary The War Room confirms that the actual 1992 exit poll projections -- at least at midday -- overstated Bill Clinton's performance. Few people noticed at the time: partly because the exit polls were not leaked on the Internet, partly because the discrepancies only altered the magnitude of Clinton's victory.

 

* Fine print: (1) I said "large-scale" because the Los Angeles Times has conducted national presidential exit polls, but those are much smaller. (2) In 1988, each network conducted its own exit polls; the WPE figure here is for CBS, the exit poll on which Warren Mitofsky worked. Later exit polls have been conducted by a series of network-sponsored consortiums.

 

Another useful accuracy measure is the Call 3 (end-of-day) "Best Geo Error" for each state. The Best Geo error is the discrepancy between the vote share estimate, based on interview data, and the official returns. (Like WPE, the Best Geo error is reported as a percentage difference in margins.) The vote share estimates can vary substantially from the raw percentages used to calculate WPE; they incorporate information on turnout, estimates of early and absentee voting (often based on telephone polls), and comparisons with past races. The average state Best Geo Error in 2004 was -5.0 points, somewhat smaller than the mean WPE.

 

TIA:

The exit polls always do not overstate the Democratic share; the vote count does. Remember, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. Since about 80% (2.4%) are democratic, the exit poll margin differential due to this factor alone is 1.8%.

 

3.3. Couldn't spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?

 

Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million (or "3,600,380 to be exact") uncounted ballots in 2004 alone. In Palast's account, these include about 1.4 million spoiled ballots (ballots for which no presidential vote was counted, such as the infamous "hanging chad" ballots in Florida) -- also known as "residual votes" or "overvotes and undervotes." They also include about 1.1 million uncounted provisional ballots and over half a million absentee ballots. These figures do not add up to 3.6 million, and it isn't clear where they come from, how accurate they are, or what proportion of these ballots were cast for Kerry. (Electionline.org reported approximately 528,000 uncounted provisional ballots nationwide, although these figures were known to be incomplete.) We can at least say that many ballots go uncounted in each election, and there is good reason to believe that these uncounted ballots are disproportionately Democratic. (It is very hard to say how disproportionately Democratic they are.)

 

Whatever advantage uncounted ballots have conferred to Republican candidates in the past, they are unlikely to account for much of the exit poll discrepancies. There is no obvious relationship between uncounted ballots and exit poll results. For instance, New Hampshire has had double-digit exit poll discrepancies (Within Precinct Error) in three of the last four presidential elections (evaluation report, page 33), but its residual vote rate was 1.7% in 2000 and 1.2% in 2004. (Incidentally, 2000 was the election without a double-digit WPE in New Hampshire.)

 

One might suppose that uncounted ballots could at least account for a mean WPE of about -2, arguing like this: if 3% of votes are never counted, and if these uncounted votes skew 80:20 to Democrats (2.4% of total vote to 0.6%), then they cost Democrats about 1.8% on the margin. However, the arithmetic is less favorable to this analysis than one might suppose, because Democratic votes lost in heavily Democratic (or heavily Republican) precincts have minimal impact on expected WPE in those precincts. For instance, if a precinct's voters actually cast 90% of their votes for the Democratic candidate, but fully 5% of those Democratic votes go uncounted, the Democrat will end up with about 89.5% of the vote, for an expected WPE of -1 in that precinct.

 

One certainly can't rule out a priori that fraud might account for at least part of the 1992 exit poll discrepancies. But as far as I know, no one has made a serious attempt to argue that George H. W. Bush committed double-digit fraud in New Jersey that year (as the exit polls might be taken to suggest) – or, more generally, to explain how Bush stole perhaps 5 million net votes that year, and why he bothered. In the end, the argument seems circular at best. People who began by asserting that exit polls are accurate end up asserting that the 1992 exit polls possibly may have been accurate.

 

TIA:

You gloss over uncounted votes as having minimal impact on WPE in heavily Democratic precincts. This assertion makes no sense. Votes are accumulated

at the state level. The WPE in a particular precinct is irrelevant to the final accumulated state total.  Compare the 2004 recorded vote (122.3m) to total votes cast (125.7m). That’s a 3.4 million vote difference. If we assume that 80% of the 3.4 million or 2.7 million were Kerry votes and the other 20% (0.70 million) were Bush votes, that’s a net loss of 2 million votes to Kerry. Since Bush “won” the recorded vote by 62-59mm, a full 2/3 of the 3 million vote margin was due to uncounted votes. Let’s do the numbers: Add Kerry‘s 2.7m UNCOUNTED votes to his RECORDED 59m to get his total of 61.7 million. Do the same for Bush: 62+0.7= 62.7m. There goes the Bush “mandate” – from 3 to 1 million. And we haven’t even yet considered the votes which were SWITCHED electronically from Kerry to Bush.

________________________________________________________________

 

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky's reputation for accuracy?

 

Here is how Mitofsky International's website puts it: "[Mitofsky's] record for accuracy is well known. 'This caution in projecting winners is a Mitofsky trademark, one which has served him well...,' said David W. Moore, the managing editor of the Gallup Poll in his book, The Super Pollsters." http://mitofskyinternational.com/company.htm). In other words, Mitofsky very rarely "called" or predicted the winner incorrectly. (Mitofsky died on September 1, 2006; as of this writing, the page I have cited is still active.)

 

If Mitofsky's calls were rarely wrong, doesn't this mean that the exit poll data must be highly accurate? No, it doesn't. One reason for Mitofsky's success was that he avoided making calls in close races based on interview data alone. Edison/Mitofsky (the firms that jointly conducted the 2004 exit poll) did not make any incorrect projections in 2004. Perhaps people who believe that the exit polls evince fraud should take Mitofsky's "caution in projecting winners" more seriously.

 

TIA:

 “Mitofsky’s record for accuracy was well-known”. Does this quote refer to the preliminary or the Final exit polls? The Final is always matched to the vote

count. We know that 3% of total votes cast in every election are uncounted and heavily Democratic. So from the get-go, matching to the Final vote is incorrect. And what about votes which are switched? So to argue that Mitofsky is accurate is a double-edged sword.  Final exit polls are matched to a fraudulent recorded vote count while preliminary polls are closer to the True vote. But few are aware of the preliminary exit poll timeline, whereas the finals are shown on media sites and in the newspapers.

 

3.5. Didn't the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls' margin of error?

 

It depends on what one means by "the exit polls" and "won." As I explained above, there are really 51 different exit polls (if one counts the telephone-only poll in Oregon), one for each state plus D.C. For each state exit poll, we now know the final projection based on interview data alone (called the Call 3 Best Geo), as well as the pollsters' estimate of the uncertainty in each projection. (See the table on pages 21-22 of the exit poll evaluation report.)

 

The final interview-only projection for Ohio showed Kerry ahead by 6.5 points with a "standard error" of 3.9 points. Using the conventional 95% standard for

 "margin of error," the margin of error would be 7.8 points. Using the 99.5% standard that the exit pollsters used as the first (not only) criterion for a "call status," the margin of error was over 10 points. So, Kerry's apparent lead in Ohio was within the margin of error. Kerry led in three other interview-only projections in states that Bush eventually won; all three were also within the margin of error. The election was too close to call based on exit poll data alone.

 

However, the national sample had about 12,000 respondents, and it gave John Kerry about a three-point margin. If the national exit poll were a random sample, its 95% margin of error on the margin would be about 1.8% -- so Kerry's lead appears to be outside the margin of error. The pollsters did not calculate an uncertainty estimate for the national sample, because they do not figure projections for the popular vote. If they did, probably even Kerry's lead in the  national sample would be within the margin of error, at least using the 99.5% standard. (Note that the concept of "margin of error" is widely misunderstood: see point 3.9 below.)

 

TIA:

You say: “However, the national sample had about 12,000 respondents, and it gave John Kerry about a three-point margin. If the national exit poll were a random sample, its 95% margin of error on the margin would be about 1.8% -- so Kerry's lead appears to be outside the margin of error.” Not true. The NEP had 13047 respondents. The MoE is 0.86% assuming a zero cluster effect. For a 30% cluster effect, it’s 1.12%.

 

Pollsters always use a 95% confidence level to calculate the MoE (1.96 standard deviations from the mean).

If  p = the Bush state poll vote share; 1-p = Kerry’s poll share; n= sample size.

MoE = 1.96 * sqrt (p* (1-p) / n) is the standard deviation.

 

The probability that the Bush state vote (v) would exceed his exit poll share (p) is given by the Excel function:

Probability = NORMDIST (p, v, MoE/1.96, true).

 

The probability that the Bush vote discrepancy would exceed the MoE in any given state is .025 (1 in 40)

The Bush vote/poll discrepancy exceeded the MoE in 16 states.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 or more states by Bush is given by the Excel function:

 

Probability = 1- BINOMDIST (15, 50, .025, true).

The probability is 1 in 19 trillion!

 

3.6. Why are the pollsters' estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

 

TruthIsAll sometimes has argued that the exit polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard. There are two problems with this reasoning. First, the exit polls are not simple random samples; they are limited to a relatively small number of precincts (49 in Ohio), and this limitation increases the statistical uncertainty. Second, the pollsters do not use a textbook formula to calculate their margins of error. Instead, they examine the actual deviations of their exit poll samples from past results in the same precincts. Ideally, all these deviations would be of the same size, in the same direction. (For instance, hypothetically, the poll might show Bush doing 2 points better everywhere in 2004 compared to 2000 -- although a result that neat would be extraordinarily unlikely.) The greater the variability in these deviations, the larger the margin of error.

 

So, the pollsters' estimates of uncertainty (margins of error) were relatively large because the precinct-level results varied widely, compared with past returns.

This wide variation could be an indicator of problems with the exit poll interviews. (One source of variation is that, as I mentioned, some of the polling places contain multiple precincts. Because the interviewers have no way to tell which voters come from which precincts, they interview voters from all the precincts -- but the interview results are compared with past returns from the "intended" precinct only.)

 

TIA:

E-M provides cumulative vote totals from 1250 precincts. An individual precinct MoE is  not relevant. The Law of Large Numbers still applies. E-M clearly indicate the margin of error for various sample sizes in the NEP Methods statement table.

 

3.7. Doesn't E/M's own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

 

TIA:

The final exit poll “projections” are forced to match the recorded vote count. And what if the vote count is corrupted? So much for the “projections”.  Read the Edison - Mitofsky notes at the bottom of the 12:22am NEP screen shot.

 

3.8. Doesn't everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

 

Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry's performance. (This overstatement is often called red shift, meaning that the "red candidate" Bush did better in the official returns than in the exit polls.) For instance, I noted above that in Ohio, Kerry led in the best interview-only estimate by 6.5 points with a "standard error" of 3.9 points. A 95% confidence interval for the margin is about double the size of the standard error: plus or minus 7.8 points. So Kerry's lead was less than the margin of error, and Ohio was too close to call based on the interview data (even if the pollsters accepted nominal 95% confidence, which they don't). However, since Bush officially won Ohio by 2.1 points, the exit poll discrepancy in Ohio (based on this estimate) was 8.6 points. That discrepancy is beyond the margin of error, at least at a 95% confidence level.

 

As I mentioned earlier, it turns out that at least the last five presidential exit polls have had overall discrepancies (measured as Within Precinct Error) outside the margin of error, but the 2004 discrepancies were the largest. We don't know how many states were outside the margin of error.

 

TIA:

Based on the 12:22am exit polls, the Margin of Error was exceeded in 16 states – all in favor of Bush. Based on the E-M provided average state WPE’s, the MoE was exceeded in 29 states.

 

Once again, your facts are wrong. The 12:22am Ohio exit poll discrepancy from the recorded vote was 3.12% - not 8.6%. Kerry led the 12:22am Ohio Exit Poll by 52.06 - 47.94%. Bush “won” the recorded vote by 51.06-48.94%. Assuming zero cluster effect, the margin of error was 2.21% for 1963 respondents; the exit poll discrepancy was 0.91% beyond the MoE. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the MoE was 2.87% - still below the 3.12% discrepancy. Bush won the Final Ohio Exit Poll of 2020 respondents by 50.94-49.06%, but the vote shares and weights were forced to match the miscounted Ohio recorded vote.  This was just like the final 2pm NEP in which vote shares and weights were changed from the 12:22am timeline to match the miscounted National vote.

 

But the exit poll matched the results of two independent models. The first was based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted to the Ohio 2000 recorded vote less the national 3.5% mortality rate and 95% turnout assumptions. Kerry was the 51.74-48.26% winner, within 0.32% of the exit poll. The second model was based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (6.15%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote. Kerry was the 52.6-47.4% winner. A statistical analysis of actual ballots in Ohio’s Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) indicated that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched.  

 

3.9. Aren't survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

 

Margins of "error" refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error. The statistical "margin of error" assumes an unbiased sample, but competent survey researchers are rarely in a position to assume that they actually have unbiased samples.

 

Many people are under the mistaken impression that larger surveys are inherently more accurate. Larger surveys do have smaller margins of (sampling) error,

but they are not inherently less vulnerable to non-sampling error. For instance, the 1936 Literary Digest presidential poll had a huge sample size of over 2.2 million respondents (out of 10 million post cards mailed), giving it a nominal margin of error of less than 0.1%. In the poll, Alf Landon held a dominating lead over Franklin Delano Roosevelt, with 57% of the projected vote. In the actual election, Landon got under 37%. The statistical odds against this outcome appear to be larger than anything ever reported by TruthIsAll. But the sample was not random: the mailing lists used to address the post cards tended to favor more prosperous voters, and in 1936 this class bias turned out to be catastrophic.

 

(People sometimes misinterpret these points as arguing that we should assume that fraud did not occur in 2004 -- whereupon they protest that other eviidence

points to fraud in 2004. But my point here has nothing to do with whether fraud occurred in 2004. It is about whether large survey errors should be interpreted

as evidence of fraud.)

 

TIA:

Did you really mean to say “vote count” errors and not “survey” errors? The 1936 presidential poll only illustrates that polling was in its infancy. Scientific polling was unheard of. Since then, pollsters have constantly IMPROVED their methodology through sophisticated sampling techniques.   Bush election fraud

has given polling a bad name. It’s the institutionalized uncounted and switched electronic votes which are the major cause of the polling discrepancies. But the fraud is not limited to these factors. Voter disenfranchisement works heavily against the Democrats even before the votes are miscounted. If all the votes were counted and everyone eligible was allowed to vote, the Democrats would win every election.

 

3.10. Which states had the largest exit poll discrepancies? Wasn't it the battleground states?

 

No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states. Using the "IM WPE" statistic (which averages the WPEs for all precincts in each state, as opposed to other methods that trim extreme values), the largest discrepancies were in Mississippi (-18.5), Connecticut (-16.0), Delaware (-15.9), Vermont (-15.2), and New Hampshire (-14.0). Using the actual interview-only projections, the largest discrepancies were in Vermont (-16.5), Delaware (-16.0), New York (-13.9), New Hampshire (-13.6), and Mississippi (-13.1). Of these six states, only New Hampshire was a battleground state. (It is true, however, that the average discrepancy in the battleground states was larger than the average discrepancy in other states. Edison/Mitofsky report that at the precinct level, the average WPE was -7.9 for precincts in 11 "swing states," and 'only' -6.1 for precincts in other states.)

 

TIA:

First of all, let’s get the magnitude of the discrepancies right. Your discrepancy is margin-based. That is misleading. For instance, the NY exit poll said that Kerry won by 64-35%. The recorded vote was 58.5- 40.1%, a 4.5% Kerry discrepancy, far below your 13.9% figure. In 2000, Gore won by 60-35% with 5% for Nader/other.  According to the National Exit Poll, approximately 71% of Nader 2000 voters voted for Kerry and 21% for Bush.  So let’s allocate the Nader vote: 75% to Kerry and 25% to Bush. Assuming Kerry matched Gore’s 61% vote and picked up an additional 3% from returning Nader voters,  his true NY vote share was  61+3% = 64%. matching the “pristine WPE-adjusted Exit Poll. It  implies that fraud (uncounted and switched votes) cost Kerry 5.5% (64-58.5%).

 

TruthIsAll FAQ: (4)

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

 

4.1. How did the exit pollsters explain the discrepancies in 2004?

 

In their evaluation report, they stated that the Within Precinct Error was "most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters" (page 3). They further state, "It is difficult to pinpoint precisely the reasons that, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters. There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify, but which led to Kerry voters being less likely than Bush voters to refuse to take the survey. In addition there are interactions between respondents and interviewers that can contribute to differential non-response rates" (page 4). The evaluation report lists several factors that were associated with differences in WPE, including interviewer distance from the polls; interviewer age and education; number of precincts at the polling place; and sampling rate at the polling place. It does not offer a master theory of the discrepancy.

 

TIA: 

What about the fact that discrepancies are caused by uncounted and miscounted votes? Why don’t the exit pollsters even mention that? Why did they ignore the fact that their own data indicated a slight Bush bias?  Why didn’t they provide a rationale for the fact that paper ballot precincts had a low average WPE compared to the touch screens, levers and optical scanners?

 

4.2. What is the "reluctant Bush responder" (rBr) hypothesis?

 

First of all, it is a name coined by critics. What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Kerry voters apparently participated at a higher rate. That statement doesn't entail that Bush voters recoiled from the interviewers. It is possible that some Bush voters did steer around interviewers, and/or that some Kerry voters steered toward interviewers, and/or that some interviewers subtly favored Kerry voters over Bush voters. The statements I quoted above do emphasize non-response bias -- i.e., that Kerry voters were less likely to refuse than Bush voters were. Sampling bias by interviewers (approaching more Kerry voters than Bush voters) could also contribute to a difference in participation rates.

 

The evaluation report never refers to "reluctant Bush responders." In fact, it doesn't venture any specific motivations -- reluctance, eagerness, fear, enthusiasm, defiance, shyness, or anything else. This reserve is appropriate because, after all, the exit pollsters did not interview the non-respondents, and therefore they cannot know specifically why the non-respondents did not respond. (Indeed, even being able to interview the non-respondents might not help very much.)

 

TIA:

The exit pollsters “concluded” that Kerry voters participated at a higher rate? Where is the evidence to that effect; the exit poll data implies a Bush bias (see Freeman). Could the discrepancy simply be due to Kerry voters outnumbering Bush voters? Once again, the exit pollsters had to conjure up an explanation of why the polls were “wrong” without considering the very real probability of fraud. But since the polls didn’t match the recorded vote, they assumed that the vote count was accurate, so…they adjusted exit poll weights and vote shares to match the vote count.

 

4.3. Does the participation bias explanation assume that fraud is unthinkable?

 

I will present several lines of argument that participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not. (By the way, concluding that fraud doesn't account for the exit poll results isn't the same as ruling out fraud generally.) The pollsters had several good reasons to suspect from the outset that participation bias was important. First of all, non-response bias -- and other forms of non-sampling error -- are ubiquitous concerns in survey research. Survey researchers do not assume that their data are accurate within the computed "margin of error," because they are well aware of everything that can go wrong. Second, the national exit polls' history of overstating the Democratic vote share in precincts, as described in point 3.2, gives additional reason to consider participation bias likely.

 

Also, we know that the exit pollsters tested a specific hypothesis about massive fraud: that millions of votes were stolen on electronic voting equipment (Direct Recording Electronic machines and/or optical scanners). In the evaluation report, the pollsters state, "Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment. We say this because these differences are similar to the differences for punch card voting equipment, and less than the difference for mechanical voting equipment." (pages 3-4) That is, the largest exit poll discrepancies on average were in precincts with lever machines. Granted, it might be possible to steal many, many votes on lever machines, but as far as I know, no one predicted or suspected it. Again, below I present other lines of argument that tend to point toward participation bias, and away from fraud, as explaining the exit poll discrepancies.

 

TIA:

There was no difference in WPE between touch-screens and optical scanners?  They are really reaching with that one. That only means that both machines were rigged. Optical scanners results are fed into central tabulators, just like the touch screens. Were the central tabulators rigged? And what was the WPE in paper ballot precincts? How does it compare to the machines?

 

4.4. Don't the high completion rates in "Bush strongholds" disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

 

No, and I'm amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument. Here is the argument: The reported completion rate in precincts that voted 80%+ for Bush ("Bush strongholds") was 56%. The reported completion rate in precincts that voted 80%+ for Kerry was only 53%.

So how can anyone claim that Kerry voters had a higher completion rate than Bush voters? Doesn't it appear that Bush voters had a higher completion rate?

 

One can work a lot of math into the argument, but basically the math is irrelevant. It seems that either one finds this argument compelling or one doesn't, regardless of the numbers attached. As a matter of logic, the argument has no force.

 

It is perfectly possible -- even likely -- that both Kerry voters and Bush voters completed the exit polls at a somewhat higher rate in "Bush strongholds" than their counterparts in "Kerry strongholds." The evaluation report suggests (on page 31) that "hypothetical completion rates of 56% among Kerry voters and 50% among Bush voters overall would account for the entire Within Precinct Error that we observed in 2004," but no one believes that those rates could apply everywhere. Indeed, the reported state-level completion rates ranged from 42.7% in South Dakota to 66.7% in Tennessee (pages 54-55) -- so we can be pretty sure that that both Kerry and Bush voters in Tennessee participated at a higher rate than their counterparts in South Dakota! Since Kerry did better in Tennessee than in South Dakota, can we conclude that Kerry voters had a higher completion rate overall? Absolutely not -- and if even the suggestion seems strange to you, then the "stronghold" argument should seem strange for the same reason. Comparing the overall completion rates in "Bush strongholds" and "Kerry strongholds" simply cannot tell us whether Kerry or Bush voters participated at a higher rate within either -- much less nationwide.

 

TIA:

Once again, you confound the basics. A Linear regression analysis of state exit poll response vs. poll and recorded/vote share indicates this relationship: exit poll response rates decreased going from Bush states to Kerry states, while Kerry’s poll and vote shares increased. To you, the regression analysis is irrelevant, but it disproves your case. The regression tells us that non-responders were more likely to be Kerry voters.

 

4.5. How can you explain the impossible changes in the national exit poll results after midnight?

 

First to explain the "problem": The tabulation of the national exit poll at 7:33 pm on election night, based on 11,027 respondents, indicated that Kerry had a 3-point edge. The tabulation was later updated; a version time-stamped 12:22 am (just after midnight) showed 13,047 respondents, and one can infer that Kerry still leads by 3 points. The final tabulation, still available on CNN.com, reports 13,660 respondents and shows Bush ahead by approximately 3 points, as in the official returns.

 

At times TruthIsAll and others have suggested that these results are "impossible" in the sense that an additional 613 respondents cannot account for the shift from Kerry to Bush. Indeed they cannot. As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections -- and, therefore, in line with the official returns. The tabulation would have been updated even if there had been no additional respondents. So the whole idea of "impossible changes" is a red herring.

 

TIA:

You are creating the red herring by failing to mention that the FINAL EXIT POLL WAS FORCED TO MATCH THE VOTE COUNT – COME HELL OR HIGH WATER.  THE FACT THAT THE “HOW VOTED IN 2000” WEIGHTS WERE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE,  AND CORRESPONDING VOTE SHARES NOT PLAUSIBLE, WAS NEVER A CONSIDERATION.

 

Interested readers should refer to the DU Game thread in which you were finally forced to provide a plausible rationale for the Bush “mandate”. Unfortunately, you only succeeded in proving that there was none. Because you had to finally agreed that the 43/37 weightings were impossible, you had to force Bush vote shares much higher than they were in Final Exit Poll where they were already inflated to match the votes. So you compounded the fakery by hypothesizing that 14.6% of Gore voters defected to Bush in 2004. The 12:22am National Exit Poll said that 8% did – a 6.6% discrepancy. The margin of error assuming a 90/10 vote split for 3200 respondents is 1.7%.

 

4.6. Why were the tabulations forced to match the official returns?

 

If the official returns are more accurate than the exit polls -- and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past -- then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations. Weighting results to match known characteristics of the population (in this case, the voters) is called "post-stratification," and it is standard statistical practice. Of course, if the exit polls were more accurate than the official returns, then weighting to the official returns would provide less accurate tabulations. But even if one believes that they were, I see no reason to conclude that the exit pollsters thought so.

 

TIA:

Exit polls were presumably wrong in the past? Or was it the vote count? Could the “errors” have been a result of uncounted and miscounted votes? If demographic weightings are designed to match the population, then why were MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore weights used in the Final Exit Poll? Post-stratification or post-misinformation? You see no reason to believe that the exit pollsters were aware of the significance of the demographic impossibility? They HAD to match the vote count, so they were well aware. And so they went along with the Big Scam.

 

4.7. Wasn't there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?

 

Not that I can see. The original tabulations were online for many hours, at the hardly obscure CNN.com. Exit pollsters commented on the results for reporters, and Warren Mitofsky appeared on PBS's NewsHour three days after the election. The exit poll discrepancies were not secret.

 

TIA:

The preliminary exit polls notes say that they were “not for public viewing”. Without the 12:22am download from Jonathan Simon, we would never know the true exit poll results.

 

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don't point to fraud?

 

There are several. One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll's observation: "Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush." As I discussed in Point 1, TruthIsAll's analysis of the pre-election polls is idiosyncratic: for instance, he estimated an 85% probability that Kerry would win Ohio, although only one poll out of the last ten put Kerry ahead there. Nevertheless, if the two sets of deviations tended to coincide -- if, for instance, Bush tended to do much better than the pre-election polls in the same states where he did much better than

the exit polls -- then one might judge that both sets of results tended to point to fraud. (Note: this argument assumes that the extent of fraud varied from state

to state, and that the differences in exit poll discrepancies partly reflect differences in fraud.)

 

Interestingly, as I show here, the relationship between these two deviations (official vs. pre-election polls, and official vs. exit polls) is flat to negative. That is, if anything, exit poll "red shift" overstating Kerry's support was largest in states where he did better than predicted in pre-election polls, or at least no worse. These results are calculated using TruthIsAll's own pre-election poll measures! While many people (including TruthIsAll) have asserted that pre-election polls may be biased, no one has explained why some state polls would be more biased than others, in a pattern that would cancel out the evidence of fraud. The lack of a positive correlation between these two deviations isn't strong evidence against fraud in any particular state, but it appreciably weakens the case that the exit polls point to fraud around the country. (A more detailed exploration of the data is here.)

 

Another strong reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies do not point to fraud involves the "swing" statistic. "Swing" is the percentage change in Bush's performance from 2000 to 2004, in each exit poll precinct. Swing tends to be fairly small, generally within a range of plus-or-minus 10 points. Generally, if an exit poll "red shift" of (say) 30 points tended to indicate 30-point fraud favoring Bush, then one would expect swing favoring Bush to be larger in such precincts than in precincts where the exit polls closely matched the official returns or even overstated Bush's support. But in fact, as I show here, there is essentially no correlation whatsoever between "swing" and "red shift." This result is hard to reconcile with fraud in the exit poll precincts, unless the fraud was precisely targeted in precincts where Bush would otherwise have done worse than in 2000.

 

TIA:

The naysayer swing vs. red-shift scatter chart  flat regression line is the rationale for claiming that the exit poll discrepancies had little effect and therefore fraud was unlikely. But it is not supported by the mathematics; there are an infinite number of scenarios which would invalidate the premise. And you are comparing apples to oranges; you did not adjust the 2000 recorded vote. According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush.  A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4m.  Assuming that 75% of approximately 3 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 1.5mm. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote majority, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 3.4m.

 

And we have not yet considered the effects of vote-switching. Thanks to Ohio, we know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000.  It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush.  If 3% (1.5 million) were switched, then his final adjusted margin is 6.4 million: 3m switched + 1.5m uncounted + 1.4m Nader + 0.54m recorded.

 

You never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating “swing”.  Assuming 3% vote- switching from Gore to Bush, swing exceeded red-shift in 43 states. Average adjusted state swing was 4.0%; average red-shift, 1.5%. Weighted average adjusted swing was 3.74%; weighted average red-shift, 1.41%. Assuming zero vote-switching in 2000, adjusted swing exceeded red-shift in 32 states. Average adjusted swing was 2.58%; weighted average swing was 2.39%. 

 

An adjusted swing vs. redshift  bar graph displays the deviations.  Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 2 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.

 

The recorded 2000 vote needs to be adjusted by these factors:

1) Third-party (Nader) share of 2000 voters:

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters by 71-21% over Bush. We need to revise the 2000 vote totals accordingly by allocating the Nader vote to Gore and Bush in the same proportion.

 

2) Uncounted votes:

According to the 2004 Election Census, there were 125.7mm total votes cast but only 122.3mm were recorded; 3.4mm (2.74%) were uncounted.  In 2000, there were 104.7mm votes recorded. Assuming that the 2000 uncounted vote rate was equal to the 2004 rate, then 107.7mm total votes were cast and 3.0mm were uncounted. Since the majority of uncounted ballots are found in Democratic minority districts, a fair assumption is that 75% of these uncounted votes were for Gore. There were 180,000 spoiled ballots (under and over votes) in Florida.

 

3) Switched votes:

The True Vote Model base case scenario indicates that 6.8% of total votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.  An exhaustive review of the ballots in Ohio's Cuyahoga County determined that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched. For this analysis, the best case assumption is that 3.0% of Gore votes were switched.

 

4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

 

Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies

don't correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, "swing" from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation

bias in 2004. Specifically, some patterns in the exit poll discrepancies fit well with participation bias.

 

For instance, "red shift" is much greater in precincts where interviewers stood further from the polling place. The average WPE increases from -5.3 where interviewers stood inside the polling place to -12.3 where interviewers stood more than 100 feet away (evaluation report, p. 37). This result is consistent with the conjecture that Kerry voters were more eager to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters were -- and this disparity was more manifest in polling places where it was easier to avoid the interviewers entirely. The recorded completion rate falls from 59% where interviewers stood inside the polling place to 43% where they were more than 100 feet away; both refusal and "miss" rates go up. At that distance, the "random sample"

becomes largely voluntary.

 

(Some people have objected that interviewer distance cannot account for the error in the poll because the WPE is so large even when interviewers stood inside the polling place. This misses the point. Edison/Mitofsky never asserted that interviewer distance accounts for non-response bias. If Bush voters and Kerry voters are equally willing to participate in the survey, then distance should not matter. But if they differ overall in their willingness to be interviewed, then it makes sense that greater distance would accentuate the difference.)

 

"Red shift" is also much larger at polling places with high interviewing rates -- that is, where interviewers were supposed to skip more voters between interviews (evaluation report, p. 36). Interestingly, however, the reported completion rates were not lower at these polling places. So it appears hat interviewers at these polling places sometimes (probably unawares) ended up interviewing Kerry voters when they "should have" interviewed Bush voters. Indeed, there is anecdotal evidence that some interviewers did not rigorously enforce these interviewing rates, but rather sometimes interviewed voters who seemed more cooperative.

 

Red shift also varies with certain interviewer characteristics, such as age and education (evaluation report, pp. 43-45); it appears that interviewers who were college students were especially prone to biased results. Voters may have tended to assume that college students would be Kerry voters, and gravitate toward

or away from them accordingly.

 

TIA:

 Red-shift or red-herring? Check this graph of Kerry State Vote vs Exit Poll vs. Completion Rate. As we move from high completion rate states to low completion, Kerry’s vote and poll shares increase. This is a graphic contradiction of the Bush voter non-response theory.

________________________________________________________________

 

4.10. Aren't you offering a lot of unproven speculation?

 

You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence. William Jennings Bryan once said that "Darwinism... is only a guess and was never anything more" -- but Bryan made no systematic attempt to consider how well "Darwinism" explained a broad variety of evidence, compared with the explanatory power of alternative theories. Attributing outcomes to the unfathomable will of God "explains" them by eschewing any attempt to understand them. In practice, attributing exit poll outcomes to fraud often suffers the same limitation. People who insist that the exit polls evince fraud have made little or no attempt to explain, for instance, why the exit poll discrepancies vary with interviewer age and education, or why the exit polls point to double-digit fraud in New York, a lever-machine state where Bush had no chance of winning, and where the official result is very close to pre-election predictions.

 

Given all the respects in which participation bias fits the data, and in which massive fraud does not, it is hard to understand how anyone can argue straight-faced that participation bias is the more speculative theory.

 

TIA:

The exit polls point to double-digit fraud in NY?  That’s misleading.  According to the exit poll, Kerry won NY by 63-36%. The recorded vote was 58.5- 40.1%, a 4.5% discrepancy. In 2000, Gore won NY by 61-35% with 4% of the vote going to Nader. According to the NEP, 71% of Nader 2000 voters switched to Kerry in 2004;  just 21% voted for Bush, a better than 3-1 ratio. Let’s assume that Kerry matched Gore’s 61% and won 75% of Nader 2000 voters. Then Kerry won by 63-36%, matching the Exit Poll. And yes, there is evidence that Lever machines are vulnerable to miscounts at the voting machine and central tabulator.

 

4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?

 

No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. However, it seems hard to reconcile massive, widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes -- with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results. By and large, the exit polls point to fraud in bizarre places (Delaware?) and sizes (how likely is it that Kerry would have won New Hampshire by double digits – or New York by over 30 points?). One can explain away some of these results individually, but the entire pattern simply isn't very consistent with massive, widespread fraud.

 

TIA:

How likely is it that Kerry won NY by over 30 points? As we have shown, Gore won NY by 60-35% over Bush, with the remaining 5% to Nader/other.  It’s very conceivable that Kerry at least matched Gore and won 75% of the Nader vote to end up with a 64-35% margin.

 

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn't steal the election?

 

No, depending on what one means by "steal." In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost John Kerry a victory in Ohio, and therefore in the election. (Obviously "uncounted votes" can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) I doubt it, but I am not arguing against it here. Many forms of vote suppression would not even affect the exit poll results, if they discouraged people from coming to the polls in the first place. It is easier to believe that Kerry "could have" won Ohio than to believe that he should have won by over 6 points despite vote suppression, as the exit poll indicates.

 

Please note: I think that efforts to prevent people from voting, or to prevent their votes from being counted, are despicable regardless of whether they affect the outcome.

 

TIA:

Please note: switching votes electronically from Kerry to Bush is also despicable.

Go here for an analysis of Uncounted and Switched Votes

 

TruthIsAll FAQ: (5)

Comparing 2004 to 2000

 

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the "2000 presidential vote" question the clincher?

 

About 3200 exit poll respondents around the country were asked who they voted for in 2000. The weighted results look like this (screen shot excerpted from cnn.com): http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQimage002.jpg

 

TIA emphasizes two aspects of this table. First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Bush in 2000.

 

That would be over 52 million Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Some of those voters must have died, or not voted for other reasons.) Ergo, it is necessary to apply "mathematically impossible weights" to the exit poll data in order to match the official returns, and so Kerry must actually have won. I will call this the "impossible 43%" argument.

 

Second, he argues: if the previous election's Gore voters and Bush voters turned out in roughly equal numbers in 2004, and if they 'defected' in 2004 to the other party at roughly equal rates, as in the table (10% of Gore voters to Bush, 9% of Bush 2000 voters to Kerry),  and if Kerry won among the "Other" voters (mostly Nader voters) and those who did not vote, then Kerry must have won.

 

The second argument is especially appealing to many people who regarded the 2004 election as in some sense a replay of the 2000 election. It seems very reasonable to say that if Kerry could just battle to a stalemate among the previous election's Gore and Bush voters, the Nader voters and new voters were bound to put Kerry over the top.

 

5.2. What is wrong with the "impossible 43%" argument?

 

It assumes that exit poll respondents accurately report whom they voted for in the previous election. In reality, exit poll respondents seem to have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. (Yes, even Richard Nixon, despite resigning in disgrace, garnered a higher "recalled vote" percentage in 1976 than his official vote share in 1972!) In fact, TIA's first argument could just as well be applied to 2000: in that year, proportionately more exit poll respondents recalled having voted for Clinton in 1996 than could actually have done so.

 

Lots of other evidence indicates that people often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn't. Perhaps most telling is an (American) National Election Study (NES) "panel" in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then reinterviewed in 2004. Of the people who said in 2000 that they had voted for Gore, about 7% said in 2004 that actually they had voted for Bush in 2000. (A smaller proportion, under 2%, similarly "switched" from Bush to Gore.) Also, among those who said in 2000 that they hadn't voted for president, about 36% said in 2004 that they had voted and those respondents reported voting for Bush by about 2 to 1. For several reasons, these percentages cannot be directly applied to the exit polls.Nevertheless, the panel does provide direct evidence of people misreporting their past votes, in Bush's favor.

 

So, while it is impossible that 43% of voters in 2004 actually voted for Bush in 2000, it is not at all impossible that 43% of voters would report having voted for Bush in 2000. In fact, this overstatement of past support is consistent with past exit poll results; it would be surprising if the percentage were not "too high."

 

TIA:

Ah, the “false recall” argument that people often report voting for the previous winner. But in 2000 GORE won by 540,000 votes in the official count.  You cite the 2000 exit poll in which 45.5% respondents (48.1 of 104.74m) said they voted for Clinton in 1996. His recorded vote was 45.6m.  How do we account for the 2.5m discrepancy? 

 

Once again, you assume that Clinton’s 45.6m recorded vote was correct. Remember the uncounted votes? We need to compute Clinton’s true 1996 vote. The recorded vote was 91.3 million. If 3% of the total votes cast were uncounted, then 94.1m votes were cast; 2.8mm were uncounted. Assuming  2.1m (75%) of the uncounted votes Clinton’s, his true vote was 47.7m , a 0.40mm deviation (0.83%) from the 48.1mm exit poll. That’s well within the 1.0% MoE.

 

In any case, it doesn’t matter what 2004 exit poll respondents said as to how they voted in 2000. The maximum number of returning 2000 voters in 2004 is limited to those who were still living in 2004.  You have agreed to this simple fact, so false recall is a non-issue. It comes down to this: where did Bush find 16 million new votes?  Assuming that 95% (46.5 of 48.7) million Bush 2000 voters also voted in 2004, he needed 62-46.2= 15.8 million new voters to match his 2004 recorded vote!

 

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?

 

The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption. And many Democrats cannot believe that any appreciable number of Gore 2000 voters -- presumably outraged by the Supreme Court's intervention, not to mention countless Bush actions -- would actually vote for Bush in 2004.

 

But the problem with the first argument is crucial to understanding the problem with the second: one cannot assume that people have reported their past votes correctly. Among the people who reported having voted for Gore, only about 10% "defected" to Bush. But what about the people who actually voted for Gore in 2000 but reported having voted for Bush? One would expect that in 2004, such people would be more likely to vote for Bush than for Kerry. Indeed, in the 2000-2004 NES panel, this group favored Bush over Kerry by greater than a 5-to-2 ratio. Thus, the 10% Gore-to-Bush "defection rate" is understated, because it excludes people who actually voted for Gore in 2000 (but misreported this fact) and who voted for Bush in 2004.

 

By similar logic (also supported by evidence from the NES panel), the 9% "defection rate" of Bush 2000 voters to Kerry is somewhat overstated. It includes some people who actually voted for Gore, but reported having voting for Bush (in 2000) -- and then voted for Kerry! This findinng may seem strange: one might imagine that people who misreported having voted for Bush in 2000 would invariably support Bush in 2004. But, as I just noted, this is observably not the case in the NES panel. Some people seem simply to forget having voted for Al Gore in 2000, but nonetheless end up (apparently) voting for Kerry.

 

(Kerry's margin among "new voters," i.e., people who did not vote in 2000, is probably also overstated, because some actual new voters who voted for Bush will have reported voting for Bush in 2000 as well. Of course I am leaving out several permutations of actual and reported votes!)

 

While there is no way of knowing the true defection rates, I estimate that the data are consistent with a Bush-to-Kerry defection rate of about 7-8% and a ore-to-Bush defection rate of about 14%. For a more extensive discussion, see my paper, "Too Many Bush Voters?"

 

This argument is consistent with the fact that the pre-election national polls generally gave Bush a slight lead. Kerry was widely expected to do better than Bush among new voters -- so if these new voters were going to break a stalemate in Kerry's favor, they should have done so in the polls before the election. (Many people tend to discount this point because they assume that the pre-election polls somehow missed these new voters -- perhaps because the pollsters underestimated turnout and/or because many of the new voters were cell-phone-only users. I address both these arguments above.)

 

TIA:

Wow! That can only be described as a convoluted, faith-based set of  hyper-hypotheticals. And this is where we part company. For one to believe that over 7 million Democratic Gore voters would defect and vote for the most incompetent, dishonest pRresident in history (with a 48.5% approval rating) who STOLE the 2000 election from them, is really a stretch – a perfect example of faith-based naysayer fundamentalism.

 

 

5.4. But... but... why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??

 

If one thinks of "Gore voters" as people who strongly supported Gore and resented the Supreme Court ruling that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of "Gore voters" in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% -- although it could conceivably be even higher.)

 

One has to consider that many Americans who vote in presidential elections do not follow politics very closely. Some will unenthusiastically opt for one candidate or the other late in the process; if they voted for the candidate who ultimately lost, they may literally forget him. (Mike Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic nominee, seems to have been singularly subject to this fate. Dukakis lost the election by under 8 points, but in the 1993 General Social Survey,  he retrospectively lost by 41 points.) Considerable research indicates that incumbent presidents tend to have an inherent advantage, which might be characterized as a "devil-you-know factor." Ray Fair estimates that from 1916 through 2000, an incumbent running for reelection had about a 3-point boost in expected vote share, although this advantage seems to have declined since 1960.

 

Some observers argue that George W. Bush had a particular advantage in 2004 given his standing as a wartime president. Americans are said to be reluctant to vote against incumbents in wartime. I am ambivalent about this argument, but we do not need to arrive at a sound-bite explanation of why an appreciable minority of Gore voters defected to Bush in order to conclude that they did.

 

TIA:

You sure as hell do need a sound-bite explanation of why so many Gore voters defected to Bush; all evidence indicates the opposite.  NES, NES, NES.  (N)ot (E)xactly (S)cientific. That’s the essence of your case.

 

Take a look at the True Vote Model

 

TruthIsAll FAQ:

Miscellaneous

 

M.1. What about the reports of flipped votes on touch screens in 2004?

 

Many people reported difficulty voting on electronic voting machines (DREs), in particular, that attempts to vote for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the "OUR-VOTE" telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000. Another observer reports that actually,

87 out of 94 EIRS reports favored Bush. The odds of this imbalance are, of course, still prohibitive -- on the order of 500 trillion to 1 against.

 

Is this compelling evidence of a stolen election? No, it really isn't at all -- because the actual election returns from DREs on crucial states don't support election theft concentrated upon DREs. In Florida, some analysts who looked for evidence of vote-switching on DREs concluded that the optical-scan results were actually more suspicious. (Of course, it is possible that both could be hacked.) In Ohio, most Ohioans voted on punch cards. Walter Mebane and Michael Herron, in an analysis of the Ohio returns for the Democratic National Committee's Voting Rights Institute, found no statistical evidence implicating either DREs or optical scanners in vote-switching. As noted earlier, the exit polls also fail to support the hypothesis of massive vote-switching on DREs -- unless one is prepared to stipulate even more massive vote-switching on lever machines.

 

One also wonders about the inherent plausibility of visible vote-switching as a means of widespread election fraud. If someone had the insider access to force visible vote-switching, wouldn't s/he also have the ability to engineer invisible vote-switching? This question may have a compelling answer, but I haven't seen one yet. (On the other hand, the mere fact that a fraud mechanism seems suboptimal doesn't prove that it wasn't used.)

 

While TIA's reported odds are breathtaking, they do not interpret themselves, for two reasons. First of all, the odds calculation depends on the underlying assumption that Bush-to-Kerry and Kerry-to-Bush switches were equally likely to be reported to EIRS. Actually, the EIRS hotline was widely publicized in liberal-leaning media sources, and the election protection volunteers who promoted the hotline were concentrated in heavily Democratic precincts. Given these facts, asell as pre-election concerns about Diebold and DREs, one would expect Kerry-to-Bush switches to be reported at a higher rate. But how much higher? There is simply no way of knowing. Certainly the imbalance of reports is suspicious.

 

The second problem is that these 88 or 94 reports are not a sample, but rather the universe of all EIRS vote-switching reports. (Presumably some additional vote-switching reports are not logged in the EIRS.) Moreover, most of these reports assert that the voter was ultimately able successfully to vote for the correct candidate. So, what is the likely frequency of vote-switching implied by the data? People who leap from fewer than 100 problem reports to multi-million-vote conclusions obviously are not following the data alone. Are these reports the tip of the proverbial iceberg, representing huge numbers of vote switches not detected or not reported? Again, there is simply no way of knowing. However, again, statistical analysis of the election returns generally indicates, probably not. Surely there were more problems than reported in the EIRS, and some of the problems may reflect tampering, but they seem to have had little impact on the outcome.

 

There is solid evidence of excessive "undervotes" on pushbutton DREs in New Mexico, disproportionately concentrated in Democratic precincts and presumably costing Kerry many net votes. The magnitude of this effect is unclear, but it possibly may have been large enough to reverse the outcome in New Mexico. The problem has been attributed in part to the implementation of the straight-ticket option on these machines: many voters may have inadvertently voided their presidential votes by initially selecting a straight ticket, then voting for another party's candidate elsewhere on the ballot.

 

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest "red shift" compared with official returns?

 

Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation -- posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night -- indicates that Democratic candidates had a net margin of about 11.3 points over Republican candidates. The actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

 

TIA:

What is your justification for stating that “the actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled”?

 

M.3. Do pre-election "generic" House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?

 

Not really. A "generic" poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup's words) "the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate," rather than naming specific candidates. (Typically the order is rotated: half of respondents are asked about Republicans first.) Generic polls are common because of the logistical complexity of (1) trying to match randomly dialed telephone numbers to congressional districts and (2) prompting the interviewers to pronounce the names of the candidates in each of the 435 districts -- for an average of perhaps two or three interviews per district. Nevertheless, in real life, voters choose between named candidates, not generic ones, and this distinction makes a difference. Joseph Bafumi and colleagues state (PDF page 6):

 

We know that they [the generic polls] perform poorly as point estimates. For instance, an 18-point Democrat lead from early in an election year most likely will translate into a far smaller vote lead on Election Day. However, regression equations accounting for the vote in terms of the generic vote do predict well, as they properly discount the exaggerated sizes of the generic poll leads.

 

What it means to "predict well" is a matter of perspective: Bafumi et al. report (PDF p. 2) that midterm House vote share predictions based on generic polls over the last 30 days have an estimated margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7 points. Vote margin predictions therefore have a margin of error of more than 7 points.

 

The 2006 generic poll results varied widely. Seven polls conducted in the last week before the election agreed that the Democrats were ahead, but the estimated Democratic margin ranged from 4 to 20 points. The average margin in these polls was about 11.6 points. Using these polls in Bafumi et al.'s regression equation, we can estimate that the Democrats would win by about 8 points, with (as I mentioned) roughly a 7-point margin of error. (Bafumi et al., using generic polls through "early October 24," estimated that the Democrats would win by about 10 points based on an average margin of over 15 points in the polls to that date.)

 

David Moore and Lydia Saad noted in 1997 that the final generic Gallup poll has generally been more accurate than the generic-poll averages. They reported that from 1954 through 1990, the final Gallup poll had an average error of under 1.3 points on vote share (about 2.5 points on margin). (The 1994 through 2002 Gallup results were also close, on average, to the official totals, although the 1998 poll overstated the Democratic vote share by 2.5 points -- still within the margin of error.) The final Gallup poll in 2006 projected a 7-point Democratic margin.

 

Given statistical margins of error, these generic poll results could be consistent with a Democratic vote margin of 7 points or of 11-plus points -- although a 7-point margin is somewhat likelier than an 11-point margin. But we do not have to settle for the generic poll results. We can examine pre-election polls in particular House races. As Mark Blumenthal has demonstrated, overall these pre-election polls come very close to the actual returns. Thus, neither generic nor race-specific pre-election polls support the conjecture of widespread miscount in House races. (In Senate and gubernatorial races, Blumenthal showed earlier, Democratic candidates on average did as well as or better than in pre-election polls.)

 

TIA: Not Really? Let’s look at the evidence.

 

This analysis shows how the Final Exit poll weights were manipulated to cut the Democratic margin in half.

This analysis shows that the 120 Generic Poll Trend matched the7:07pm Exit Poll.

This  is an analysis of uncounted and switched votes.

This analysis shows that the 120 Generic Poll Trend matched the 10 Final Generic Polls.

This is the final of three pre-election articles I wrote with Michael Collins (autorank) and Alistair Thompson of SCOOP. The purpose was to quantify the risk of fraud in the 2006 Mid-terms. The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and Senate. It also indicated the House seats and Senate races where fraud was most likely to occur.

 

M.4. What about the massive undervotes in Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?

 

Without getting into the specifics, the short answer is: I think that if voters had been able to cast their votes as they intended, the Democratic candidate Christine Jennings would have won the House race in Florida's 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. I have seen no evidence that the events in FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.

 

TIA:

Are you implying that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? And that there is no evidence of miscounting in the other 434 districts? Mark, you’re in a constant state of denial. What about Ohio? There are quite a few articles which document the fraud.

 

This Pew 2006 Election Analysis of voting “glitches”, “snafus” and “hiccups” describes the chaos state by state.

 

This Survey of Pollworker and Voter Experience Reveals Pervasive and Recurrent Failures among Computerized Voting Systems.

An extensive analysis of ballots cast in the Ohio 2006 Senate Race by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. proved that the recorded vote count was imposssible.

 

ABSTRACT: In the November 7, 2006 election in Ohio there were 350,669 more ballots cast than the number of votes counted for United States Senator. In 16 counties there were 268,987 uncounted votes, or 19.46% of ballots cast, compared to 82,957, or 2.99%, in 71 other counties. Cuyahoga County alone accounted for 148,928 uncounted votes, or 26.48% of ballots cast in the county, and 42.47% of the statewide total of uncounted ballots. In Marion County there were 1,275 more votes counted for United States Senator than the reported number of ballots cast, which is an impossibility.

 

If the rate of uncounted ballots in the 17 suspect counties had been about 3%, as was the case elsewhere in the state, there would have been about 42,000 uncounted ballots instead of 269,000. This indicates that 227,000 votes may have been lost by the touch screen voting machines, which were utilized in all 17 of the suspect counties.

________________________________________________________________