The Election Calculator is a compact, powerful Excel workbook model for calculating the True vote for presidential elections since 1988. The model was created by Internet poster TruthIsAll.

The Calculator determines the number of returning prior election voters based on user input assumptions. For example, to calculate the True 2004 vote, click the "2004" tab.  Enter data assumptions (or use the pre-set defaults) for the current and prior election: uncounted votes, voter mortality (defaults are based on Census and mortality tables) and the candidates’ share of returning 2000 voters (default to the 12:22am National Exit Poll update).  

In 2004, the uncounted default was 2.74%. The rate is the difference between the 2004 Census estimate (125.7m votes) and the recorded vote (122.3m). Approximately 3.4m votes (2.74% of 125.7m) were uncounted. 

Since users enter their own input assumptions, they cannot dispute the results. The Calculator is an unbiased number cruncher.  It automatically calculates Democratic vote shares over a range of scenarios ("sensitivity analysis"). Those who believe that Bush won should present a matching recorded vote share scenario using plausible assumptions.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can’t prove that fraud occurred.  But that’s not a valid criticism. The question should be: Do the exit polls, in conjunction with the pre-election and approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely? In 2004, pre-election and exit polls (state and national) closely matched Bush’s 48% job approval.  Twenty-nine states deviated from the exit poll to recorded vote beyond the margin of error – a virtually impossible occurrence. The preliminary National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the election by 51-48% with a 1% margin of error.  The probabilities were a compelling circumstantial case for fraud; they were confirmed by the overwhelming documented evidence of corrupted vote counts in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, etc. See the 2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics for details.

Democrats always do better in the preliminary exit poll than they do in the final, which is always matched to the recorded vote count.  But what if the recorded count is corrupt?  Millions of votes (over 3%) are uncounted in every election - and 70-80% of them are Democratic; this is an obvious component of the discrepancy between preliminary and the final exit polls. The other component is vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central vote tabulators.