2004/2006 Election
Forecast Simulation Models and National Exit Poll Analyses
TruthIsAll 9/01/07
Election
Fraud Analytics: Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
The
1988-2004 Election Calculator
Exit
Poll MoE exceeded in 24 states for Bush (30% cluster effect)
Did
Kerry win more than 360 Electoral Votes?
The
Submerging Democratic Majority
Strange
Anomaly: The last 5 million recorded votes
A
Classic DU thread from Nov. 2004
The
Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation
Introduction
to the Interactive Election Simulation Model
Exposing
the "computer glitch" myth: a simple Excel-based Vote Hacker
Beyond
a Reasonable Doubt – Why Kerry won
How
Kerry lost 7 million votes: 2.6 uncounted; 4.4 switched
Probability
Curves for Various Vote Shares and MoEs
THE 2006 MIDTERMS
Post-mortem: How many GOP-held House seats were stolen from the Dems?
Reconciling
Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia votes / Generic Poll Trend
Reconciling
Discrepancies: 2006 Generic Poll Trend vs 7:07pm and Final Exit Poll
Do
you still believe the reported vote count is accurate?
A
Reply to DUers who question my probability assumptions/calculations
1
in 76 BILLION: Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll
THE
MATH: Democratic Tsunami and GOP House Election Fraud
120
Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit Poll
Final
CNN Exit Poll changes: what's going on?
For
What It's Worth: Comparing the 2004 and 2006 National Exit Polls
The
2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute – again!
How
the GOP can keep the House: STEAL 31 SEATS with uncounted & switched votes
My
11/03 House projection: Dems 245 - GOP 190... IF ZERO FRAUD
10/15
House & Senate Forecast: A Monte Carlo Polling Simulation
Oct.
15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the House
Oct.15
Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the Senate
Will
the Dems win the House? YES (99% probability) if there is ZERO fraud
Generic
projections: 120-poll trend vs. avg. of 10 finals differ by .05%
2004 PRE-ELECTION POLLS
The 2004 Election Monte-Carlo
Simulation Model
2004
Pre-election Monthly Polls. Kerry led in every month except Jan. & Sept.
Average
of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the average 12:22am exit poll
Ultimate
Smoking Gun? Change in 2-Party Gender/Race Vote (2000-2004)
Yes,
Virginia, pre-election state polls matched the exits - they really did.
2004
Election Model: Kerry led monthly national pre-elect polls all year
CONFIRMATION:
Election Model projections matched the Exit Polls
18
Final National pre-election polls: OTOH at DU, eat your heart out
BUSH
48.5% PRE-ELECTION APPROVAL vs. 48.3% AVERAGE OF PRE-ELECTION & EXIT POLLS
A
FREE EDUCATION: EXPERT POLLSTER HARRIS ON UNDECIDEDS
Concerning
the ESI hypothesis...a hypothetical model
Its
very clear: Kerry's pre-election state/national and exit poll state/national…
2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE
11/2/04,
3:59pm 8349 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
11/2/04,
7:33pm 11027 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
11/3/04,
12:22am 13047 respondents
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
11/3/04,
1:25pm 13660 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
THE
SIMPLE MATH (1948-2006): FRAUD = UNCOUNTED + SWITCHED VOTES
CLINCHER
III: EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS
Four
snapshots: The National Exit Poll Time Line (3:59pm to Final)
How
Kerry won by 7 million votes across all NEP demographics
DATA
MINING: MATCH NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHICS TO THE GENDER VOTE
HOW
TO MATCH AN EXIT POLL TO A VOTE MISCOUNT: USE BOGUS WEIGHTS
THE
CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS!
CLINCHER
II: Census matches State/National Exit Poll Gender split (0.25%-0.50%)
CLINCHER
IV: CENSUS MATCHES NAT EXIT POLL (EDUCATION, RACE, GENDER, INCOME)
THE
ULTIMATE CLINCHER: BUSH NEEDED 1 OF 5 GORE VOTERS!!
How
many votes were electronically SWITCHED from Kerry to Bush?
The
NEP question: "Who did you vote for in the LAST election?" is
IRRELEVANT
The
"Game" - we beat the Naysayers right here
The
"Game": An implausible response to the challenge
How
we won the DU "Game" debate...
WANT
TO MATCH THE VOTE COUNT? SIMPLE. JUST
USE IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTS.
IMPLAUSIBLE:
What Bush needed to WIN by 62-59mm and TIE at 60.5mm
Kerry
won 12:22am NEP: 52.4 - 46.7%; Win Probability: 99.95% (even assuming 100%
Cluster Effect!)
Ohio
Red Shift in 36/49 precincts (3 tied) mirrors the National in 41/50 states
The
Clincher Demographic: How Did You Vote in 2000?
The
Reluctant Transvestite Responder
State
Exit Polls: Reluctant Bush Responders Required to Match Vote
36
of 49 OH Exit Poll Precincts flip to Bush, 10 to Kerry ; 42 states flip Bush
SUSA
Bush State Approval Chart is a guide to the stolen battleground states
We
know about Ohio, now why don't they investigate Florida?
DU
Land Shark Alert! The TOTALITY of the evidence shows that...
Exit
Poll non-response vs. Census non-response: Q for TIA
The
mystery of 27 adjacent Florida precinct matches....
More
evidence: Census matched 12:22am National Exit Poll (4 demographics)
OHIO
Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts)
The
Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary
Exit
poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr
Response
Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls refutes rBr
MISCELLANEOUS
A
CLASSIC DU thread from 11/26/04
A
conversation about exit polls...
An
Open Letter to Salon's Farhad Manjoo
DU's
Awsi Dooger:"TIA Cherry-picks polls". No Way, Awsi! YOU do.
Here
is why naysayers should read the links they cite before posting
A
Comprehensive Debate with a Naysayer
Posts
from Nov. 2004 - Aug. 2005