Election Model
				Created by
				TruthIsAll
				Updated:	1-Nov
			Simulation	Expected	Weighted	5000 Trials
			Projection	Elec. Vote	Pop. Vote%	Win Prob%
			Kerry	337	51.80	99.80
			Bush	201	48.20	0.20
	National	National	State				Monte Carlo Simulation
	9 Poll	18 Poll	51  Poll				State EV Model
Current%	Average	Average	Wtd. Average		Undecided%	Allocation		BaseCase
Kerry	47.11	47.17	47.88		Kerry	60%	67%	75%	80%	87%
Bush	46.56	46.89	46.89		Trial  Wins	4901	4972	4990	4997	4999
Projected%					Projected%
Kerry	51.86	51.63	51.80		Kerry	51.02	51.38	51.80	52.07	52.43
Bush	48.14	48.38	48.20		Bush	48.98	48.62	48.20	47.93	47.57
Win Prob%	1.03 MoE	0.73 MoE	EV Wins/5000		Win Prob%
Kerry	99.98	100.00	99.80		Kerry	98.02	99.44	99.80	99.94	99.98
Bush	0.02	0.00	0.20		Bush	1.98	0.56	0.20	0.06	0.02
2-Party Vote	1992-2000	Vote%	Kerry		Electoral Vote
Democrat	138.8 mil	52.61	50.52		Average	320	328	337	343	352
Republican	125.0 mil	47.39	49.48		Median	322	329	338	345	353
					Maximum	379	388	405	405	412
					Minimum	211	237	229	243	254
Battleground	Kerry current 2-party poll %
AZ	47.37	NH	50.00		95% Conf. Interval
AR	50.00	NC	48.14		Upper Limit	361	368	376	382	389
CO	49.47	OH	51.55		Lower Limit	278	288	299	305	315
FL	51.55	PA	52.63
IA	53.19	TN	48.73		National 18-Polls
MI	53.61	VA	47.96		Vote%	50.73	51.15	51.63	51.92	52.34
MN	54.17	WA	54.17		Prob%	97.55	99.90	100.00	100.00	100.00
MO	47.31	WV	48.52
NV	50.00	WI	53.68		States Won	26	27	27	28	30
		Gore won	Kerry  leads
	States	21	26
	Elec. Vote	266	322
	2-party%	50.27	50.52
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				POLLING ANALYSIS
		Kerry %	Gore %			Recent State Polls
	EV	vs. Bush	vs. Bush	Diff	Gore EV	Kerry %	Bush %	Diff	Kerry EV
AL	9	40.63	42.86	(2.23)		39.0	57.0	(18.0)
AK	3	34.48	32.18	2.30		30.0	57.0	(27.0)
AZ	10	47.37	46.88	0.49		45.0	50.0	(5.0)
AR	6	50.00	47.42	2.58		48.0	48.0	0.0	6
CA	55	53.85	55.79	(1.94)	55	49.0	42.0	7.0	55
CO	9	49.47	45.16	4.31		47.0	48.0	(1.0)
CT	7	55.32	59.57	(4.26)	7	52.0	42.0	10.0	7
DE	3	54.22	56.70	(2.48)	3	45.0	38.0	7.0	3
DC	3	87.64	90.43	(2.79)	3	78.0	11.0	67.0	3
FL	27	51.55	49.95	1.60		50.0	47.0	3.0	27
GA	15	44.68	43.88	0.80		42.0	52.0	(10.0)
HI	4	50.00	60.22	(10.22)	4	45.0	45.0	0.0	4
ID	4	33.71	29.47	4.23		30.0	59.0	(29.0)
IL	21	56.25	56.12	0.13	21	54.0	42.0	12.0	21
IN	11	40.21	41.84	(1.63)		39.0	58.0	(19.0)
IA	7	53.19	50.52	2.68	7	50.0	44.0	6.0	7
KS	6	38.14	38.95	(0.80)		37.0	60.0	(23.0)
KY	8	41.05	41.84	(0.78)		39.0	56.0	(17.0)
LA	9	45.45	45.92	(0.46)		40.0	48.0	(8.0)
ME	4	56.18	52.69	3.49	4	50.0	39.0	11.0	4
MD	10	55.67	58.33	(2.66)	10	54.0	43.0	11.0	10
MA	12	70.33	64.52	5.81	12	64.0	27.0	37.0	12
MI	17	53.61	52.58	1.03	17	52.0	45.0	7.0	17
MN	10	54.17	51.06	3.10	10	52.0	44.0	8.0	10
MS	6	45.16	41.41	3.75		42.0	51.0	(9.0)
MO	11	47.31	48.45	(1.14)		44.0	49.0	(5.0)
MT	3	38.71	36.26	2.45		36.0	57.0	(21.0)
NE	5	34.41	34.74	(0.33)		32.0	61.0	(29.0)
NV	5	50.00	47.92	2.08		49.0	49.0	0.0	5
NH	4	50.00	49.47	0.53		47.0	47.0	0.0	4
NJ	15	54.35	58.33	(3.99)	15	50.0	42.0	8.0	15
NM	5	50.00	50.05	(0.05)	5	49.0	49.0	0.0	5
NY	31	59.38	63.16	(3.78)	31	57.0	39.0	18.0	31
NC	15	48.14	43.43	4.71		46.7	50.3	(3.6)
ND	3	38.89	35.11	3.78		35.0	55.0	(20.0)
OH	20	51.55	47.92	3.63		50.0	47.0	3.0	20
OK	7	31.46	38.78	(7.31)		28.0	61.0	(33.0)
OR	7	53.19	50.05	3.14	7	50.0	44.0	6.0	7
PA	21	52.63	52.58	0.05	21	50.0	45.0	5.0	21
RI	4	60.87	65.59	(4.72)	4	56.0	36.0	20.0	4
SC	8	43.30	41.84	1.46		42.0	55.0	(13.0)
SD	3	44.68	38.78	5.91		42.0	52.0	(10.0)
TN	11	48.73	47.96	0.77		47.8	50.3	(2.5)
TX	34	38.54	39.18	(0.63)		37.0	59.0	(22.0)
UT	5	25.81	27.96	(2.15)		24.0	69.0	(45.0)
VT	3	56.99	55.43	1.55	3	53.0	40.0	13.0	3
VA	13	47.96	45.83	2.13		47.0	51.0	(4.0)
WA	11	54.17	52.63	1.54	11	52.0	44.0	8.0	11
WV	5	48.52	46.94	1.58		45.8	48.6	(2.8)
WI	10	53.68	50.05	3.63	10	51.0	44.0	7.0	10
WY	3	30.85	29.17	1.68		29.0	65.0	(36.0)
Total	538	50.52	50.27	0.26	260	47.88	46.89	0.99	322
Gore won	21	states with	266	electoral votes
Kerry leads	26	states with	322	electoral votes
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				BUSH	APPROVAL
Avg	Date	Nwk	Fox	Gallup	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby	Qpac
54.50	Jan	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49	53
49.67	Feb	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na	48
48.75	Mar	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na	49
48.55	Apr	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47	46
45.18	May	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42	45
47.00	June	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46	na
47.82	July	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49	46
48.00	Aug	45	51	51	46	48	46	50	51	47	49	44	na
49.09	Sept	48	50	52	46	45	48	50	53	47	54	47	na
48.50	Oct	46	49	46	44	na	49	53	53	49	47	49	na
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				MONTHLY AVERAGE TREND
				Independent National Poll Group
						2-party	Curr.	Proj.	Proj.
Independent Poll Group:		Kerry	Bush	Other	Diff	Kerry	Prob	Kerry	Prob.
ARG	Jan	44.00	49.00	7.00	-5.00	47.31	0.00	49.25	7.74
Harris	Feb	47.50	45.25	7.25	2.25	51.21	98.93	52.94	100.00
Zogby	Mar	47.60	45.20	7.20	2.40	51.29	99.29	53.00	100.00
Economist	Apr	46.40	45.40	8.20	1.00	50.54	84.93	52.55	100.00
Marist	May	47.20	44.00	8.80	3.20	51.75	99.96	53.80	100.00
Dem Corp	June	46.00	45.60	8.40	0.40	50.22	66.07	52.30	100.00
Pew	July	47.33	44.33	8.33	3.00	51.64	99.90	53.58	100.00
IBD/TIPP	Aug	47.83	44.50	7.67	3.33	51.81	99.97	53.58	100.00
ICR	Sept	45.00	47.44	7.56	-2.44	48.68	0.61	50.67	89.70
	Oct	47.11	46.56	6.33	0.56	50.30	71.32	51.86	99.98
Projection		National	2-party		National	2-party		State	2-party
= Kerry Avg	Avg	Ind. Group	K/K+B		18 Polls	K/K+B		51 polls	K/K+B
+ 60% other	Kerry	47.11%	50.30%		47.17%	50.15%		47.88%	50.52%
	Bush	46.56%	49.70%		46.89%	49.85%		46.89%	49.48%
Use RV polls	Diff	0.56%	0.59%		0.28%	0.30%		0.99%	1.04%
(LV if RV na)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				LATEST NATIONAL POLLS
							Kerry projections
Nat.	Poll	Poll	Curr.	Curr.	Curr	Undecided alloc. %
Poll	Date	MoE	Kerry	Bush	K/K+B	60.0	67.0	75.0	80.0	87.0
AP	1020	3.50	49	46	51.6	52.0	52.4	52.8	53.0	53.4
Time	1021	3.00	46	51	47.4	47.8	48.0	48.3	48.4	48.6
LAT	1024	4.00	48	47	50.5	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.0	52.4
Harris	1025	2.50	48	47	50.5	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.0	52.4
ICR	1026	3.10	44	46	48.9	50.0	50.7	51.5	52.0	52.7
Econ	1027	2.00	49	45	52.1	52.6	53.0	53.5	53.8	54.2
Nwk	1029	4.00	45	48	48.4	49.2	49.7	50.3	50.6	51.1
Pew	1030	3.50	46	45	50.5	51.4	52.0	52.8	53.2	53.8
Zogby	1030	3.10	47	48	49.5	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.0	51.4
ARG	1030	3.50	49	48	50.5	50.8	51.0	51.3	51.4	51.6
ABC	1030	3.00	48	47	50.5	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.0	52.4
Marist	1031	2.50	49	48	50.5	50.8	51.0	51.3	51.4	51.6
TIPP	1031	3.50	44	45	49.4	50.6	51.4	52.3	52.8	53.6
CBS	1031	3.00	46	47	49.5	50.2	50.7	51.3	51.6	52.1
DemC	1031	3.10	48	47	51.6	52.2	52.7	53.3	53.6	54.1
FOX	1031	3.40	48	45	50.5	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.0	52.4
Gallup	1031	4.00	48	46	51.1	51.6	52.0	52.5	52.8	53.2
NBC	1031	3.00	47	48	49.5	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.0	51.4
	Average	0.73	47.17	46.89	50.15	50.73	51.15	51.63	51.92	52.34
			Kerry Win Probabilities		65.17	97.55	99.90	100.00	100.00	100.00
95% Confidence Limits:		Max	47.90	47.62	50.88	51.46	51.88	52.36	52.65	53.07
Std = MoE / 1.96		Min	46.44	46.16	49.41	50.00	50.42	50.89	51.19	51.61
Max=Mean+1.96*Std		x	47.62	47.62	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
Min=Mean-1.96*Std		Prob>x	11.23	2.50	65.17	97.55	99.90	100.00	100.00	100.00
99% Confidence Limits:
Max=Mean+2.58*Std		Max	48.13	47.85	51.11	51.69	52.11	52.59	52.88	53.30
Min=Mean-2.58* Std		Min	46.21	45.93	49.18	49.77	50.19	50.66	50.96	51.38
		x	47.85	47.85	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
		Prob>x	3.33	0.49	65.17	97.55	99.90	100.00	100.00	100.00
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				NATIONAL WIN PROBABILITY MATRIX
				(sample size vs. projected vote pct)
				Kerry Undecided Allocation /  Vote (18 Poll Model)					9-Poll Model
Sample	Sample	Std	2-party	60%	67%	75%	80%	87%	60%
Size	MoE	Dev	50.15	50.73	51.15	51.63	51.92	52.34	51.86
600	4.00%	2.04%	52.84	64.03	71.33	78.70	82.68	87.40	81.91
1000	3.10%	1.58%	53.66	67.86	76.64	84.80	88.80	93.04	88.04
1250	2.77%	1.41%	54.09	69.80	79.18	87.47	91.30	95.09	90.59
1500	2.53%	1.29%	54.48	71.50	81.34	89.59	93.17	96.50	92.53
2000	2.19%	1.12%	55.17	74.41	84.80	92.69	95.72	98.18	95.20
3000	1.79%	0.91%	56.32	78.91	89.60	96.25	98.24	99.48	97.93
4000	1.55%	0.79%	57.29	82.32	92.70	98.01	99.25	99.85	99.07
5000	1.39%	0.71%	58.14	85.02	94.80	98.92	99.67	99.95	99.58
6000	1.27%	0.65%	58.91	87.20	96.25	99.41	99.85	99.99	99.80
7000	1.17%	0.60%	59.61	89.01	97.28	99.67	99.94	100.00	99.91
8000	1.10%	0.56%	60.25	90.52	98.01	99.82	99.97	100.00	99.96
9000	1.03%	0.53%	60.86	91.79	98.54	99.90	99.99	100.00	99.98
10000	0.98%	0.50%	61.43	92.88	98.92	99.94	99.99	100.00	99.99
11000	0.93%	0.48%	61.97	93.80	99.20	99.97	100.00	100.00	100.00
12000	0.89%	0.46%	62.49	94.59	99.41	99.98	100.00	100.00	100.00
13000	0.86%	0.44%	62.98	95.28	99.56	99.99	100.00	100.00	100.00
14000	0.83%	0.42%	63.45	95.87	99.67	99.99	100.00	100.00	100.00
15000	0.80%	0.41%	63.91	96.38	99.76	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
16000	0.77%	0.40%	64.34	96.82	99.82	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
17000	0.75%	0.38%	64.76	97.21	99.86	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
18000	0.73%	0.37%	65.17	97.55	99.90	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
				ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION ANALYSIS
	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	Trials 1-10 of 5000
	Hist. %	Proj. %	Prob. %	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
	52.61	51.80	99.80	329	342	338	347	336	349	347	323	342	317
AL	44.78	42.00	0.00
AK	37.65	39.75	0.00
AZ	48.82	48.75	27.01		10		10	10			10
AR	55.21	51.00	68.79		6	6	6	6	6		6	6
CA	57.36	55.75	99.76	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
CO	48.81	50.75	64.34	9	9	9		9	9		9	9
CT	57.72	56.50	99.93	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.82	57.75	99.99	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.35	86.25	100.00	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.69	52.25	86.49	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
GA	47.58	46.50	4.32
HI	59.01	52.50	88.97	4			4	4	4	4		4
ID	35.65	38.25	0.00
IL	57.93	57.00	99.97	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.83	41.25	0.00
IA	51.82	54.50	98.63	7	7	7	7	7		7	7	7	7
KS	42.43	39.25	0.00
KY	46.67	42.75	0.02
LA	49.19	49.00	31.21	9	9				9			9	9
ME	57.09	58.25	100.00	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
MD	57.81	56.25	99.89	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.27	70.75	100.00	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.74	54.25	98.14	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.74	55.00	99.29	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.32	47.25	8.89		6
MO	52.46	49.25	35.66			11			11	11	11
MT	44.91	41.25	0.00
NE	37.54	37.25	0.00
NV	49.89	50.50	59.68	5		5			5	5	5	5	5
NH	51.72	51.50	76.88	4		4	4	4	4	4	4
NJ	56.45	56.00	99.84	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.01	50.50	59.68			5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.60	60.00	100.00	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.60	48.95	30.35				15			15
ND	40.84	42.50	0.01
OH	50.77	52.25	86.49	20	20	20	20	20	20	20		20	20
OK	42.77	36.25	0.00
OR	53.57	54.50	98.63	7		7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.16	53.75	96.69	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.55	62.00	100.00	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
SC	44.41	44.25	0.24
SD	44.48	46.50	4.32
TN	50.51	49.23	35.21		11							11
TX	44.27	40.00	0.00
UT	33.65	29.25	0.00
VT	59.38	58.25	100.00	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.29	48.50	23.12
WA	55.87	55.00	99.29	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.00	50.00	50.00				5		5	5			5
WI	52.69	54.75	99.00	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.33	33.50	0.00
Avg	52.61	51.80	99.80	329	342	338	347	336	349	347	323	342	317
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
		NATIONAL POLL TREND
	Current	Current		Projection
	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff
TIPP
Feb	44	41	3	55.3	44.8	10.5
Mar	45	43	2	54.0	46.0	8.0
Apr	40	44	-4	52.0	48.0	4.0
May	43	42	1	54.3	45.8	8.5
June	43	44	-1	52.8	47.3	5.5
July	46	43	3	54.3	45.8	8.5
Aug	44	44	0	53.0	47.0	6.0
Sept	46	45	1	52.8	47.3	5.5
Oct	44	45	-1	52.3	47.8	4.5
AVG	43.89	43.44	0.44	53.39	46.61	6.78
ABC
Feb	52	43	9	55.8	44.3	11.5
Mar	53	44	9	55.3	44.8	10.5
Apr	48	49	-1	50.3	49.8	0.5
May	49	47	2	52.0	48.0	4.0
June	53	45	8	54.5	45.5	9.0
July	47	49	-2	50.0	50.0	0.0
Aug	49	48	1	51.3	48.8	2.5
Sept	45	51	-6	48.0	52.0	-4.0
Oct	48	47	1	51.8	48.3	3.5
AVG	49.33	47.00	2.33	52.08	47.92	4.17
AP
Jan	37	54	-17	43.8	56.3	-12.5
Mar	45	46	-1	51.8	48.3	3.5
Apr	44	45	-1	52.3	47.8	4.5
May	43	46	-3	51.3	48.8	2.5
July	45	49	-4	49.5	50.5	-1.0
Aug	48	45	3	53.3	46.8	6.5
Sept	42	51	-9	47.3	52.8	-5.5
Oct	49	46	3	52.8	47.3	5.5
AVG	44.88	46.75	-1.88	51.16	48.84	2.31
Nwk
Jan	41	52	-11	46.3	53.8	-7.5
Feb	50	45	5	53.8	46.3	7.5
Mar	48	45	3	53.3	46.8	6.5
Apr	50	43	7	55.3	44.8	10.5
May	46	45	1	52.8	47.3	5.5
July	51	45	6	54.0	46.0	8.0
Aug	52	44	8	55.0	45.0	10.0
Sept	45	50	-5	48.8	51.3	-2.5
Oct	45	48	-3	50.3	49.8	0.5
AVG	48.11	45.56	2.56	52.86	47.14	5.72
ARG
Jan	47	46	1	52.3	47.8	4.5
Feb	48	46	2	52.5	47.5	5.0
Mar	50	43	7	55.3	44.8	10.5
Apr	50	44	6	54.5	45.5	9.0
May	47	44	3	53.8	46.3	7.5
June	48	46	2	52.5	47.5	5.0
July	49	45	4	53.5	46.5	7.0
Aug	49	46	3	52.8	47.3	5.5
Sep	46	47	-1	51.3	48.8	2.5
Oct	49	48	1	51.3	48.8	2.5
AVG	48.44	45.44	3.00	53.03	46.97	6.06
NBC
Jan	35	54	-19	43.3	56.8	-13.5
Mar	43	46	-3	51.3	48.8	2.5
May	42	46	-4	51.0	49.0	2.0
June	44	45	-1	52.3	47.8	4.5
July	45	47	-2	51.0	49.0	2.0
Aug	45	47	-2	51.0	49.0	2.0
Sep	46	49	-3	49.8	50.3	-0.5
Oct	47	48	-1	50.8	49.3	1.5
AVG	44.38	46.75	-2.38	51.03	48.97	2.06
FOX
Jan	32	54	-22	42.5	57.5	-15.0
Feb	43	47	-4	50.5	49.5	1.0
Mar	44	44	0	53.0	47.0	6.0
Apr	42	43	-1	53.3	46.8	6.5
May	42	42	0	54.0	46.0	8.0
June	42	48	-6	49.5	50.5	-1.0
July	42	43	-1	53.3	46.8	6.5
Aug	45	44	1	53.3	46.8	6.5
Sep	43	45	-2	52.0	48.0	4.0
Oct	48	45	3	53.3	46.8	6.5
AVG	43.44	44.56	-1.11	52.44	47.56	4.89
CBS
Jan	48	43	5	54.8	45.3	9.5
Feb	47	46	1	52.3	47.8	4.5
Mar	48	43	5	54.8	45.3	9.5
Apr	48	43	5	54.8	45.3	9.5
May	49	41	8	56.5	43.5	13.0
June	45	44	1	53.3	46.8	6.5
July	49	44	5	54.3	45.8	8.5
Aug	45	44	1	53.3	46.8	6.5
Sep	41	49	-8	48.5	51.5	-3.0
Oct	46	47	-1	51.3	48.8	2.5
AVG	46.44	44.56	1.89	53.19	46.81	6.39
Gallup
Jan	43	55	-12	44.5	55.5	-11.0
Feb	48	49	-1	50.3	49.8	0.5
Mar	52	44	8	55.0	45.0	10.0
Apr	46	51	-5	48.3	51.8	-3.5
May	49	47	2	52.0	48.0	4.0
June	48	49	-1	50.3	49.8	0.5
July	51	44	7	54.8	45.3	9.5
Aug	48	47	1	51.8	48.3	3.5
Sep	44	52	-8	47.0	53.0	-6.0
Oct	48	46	2	52.5	47.5	5.0
AVG	48.22	47.67	0.56	51.31	48.69	2.61
Pew
Jan	41	52	-11	46.3	53.8	-7.5
Feb	47	47	0	51.5	48.5	3.0
Mar	48	44	4	54.0	46.0	8.0
Apr	47	46	1	52.3	47.8	4.5
May	50	45	5	53.8	46.3	7.5
June	46	48	-2	50.5	49.5	1.0
July	46	44	2	53.5	46.5	7.0
Aug	47	45	2	53.0	47.0	6.0
Sep	40	48	-8	49.0	51.0	-2.0
Oct	46	45	1	52.8	47.3	5.5
AVG	46.33	45.78	0.56	52.25	47.75	4.50
LAT
Apr	49	46	3	52.8	47.3	5.5
June	51	44	7	54.8	45.3	9.5
July	48	46	2	52.5	47.5	5.0
Aug	46	49	-3	49.8	50.3	-0.5
Sep	43	47	-4	50.5	49.5	1.0
Oct	48	47	1	51.8	48.3	3.5
AVG	47.71	46.43	1.29	52.11	47.89	4.21
ZOGBY
Mar	48	46	2	52.5	47.5	5.0
Apr	47	44	3	53.8	46.3	7.5
May	47	42	5	55.3	44.8	10.5
June	44	42	2	54.5	45.5	9.0
July	48	43	5	54.8	45.3	9.5
Aug	50	43	7	55.3	44.8	10.5
Sep	44	47	-3	50.8	49.3	1.5
Oct	47	48	-1	50.8	49.3	1.5
AVG	46.88	44.38	2.50	53.44	46.56	6.88
TIME
Jan	43	54	-11	45.3	54.8	-9.5
Feb	48	50	-2	49.5	50.5	-1.0
May	51	46	5	53.3	46.8	6.5
July	50	45	5	53.8	46.3	7.5
Aug	46	46	0	52.0	48.0	4.0
Sep	44	48	-4	50.0	50.0	0.0
Oct	46	51	-5	48.3	51.8	-3.5
AVG	48.00	47.43	0.57	51.43	48.57	2.86
DemC
Jan
Feb	51	47	4	52.5	47.5	5.0
Mar	47	50	-3	49.3	50.8	-1.5
Apr	48	49	-1	50.3	49.8	0.5
May	49	47	2	52.0	48.0	4.0
June	49	48	1	51.3	48.8	2.5
July	50	47	3	52.3	47.8	4.5
Aug	52	45	7	54.3	45.8	8.5
Sep	49	49	0	50.5	49.5	1.0
Oct	48	47	1	51.8	48.3	3.5
AVG	49.22	47.67	1.56	51.56	48.44	3.11
Marist
Jan	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Feb	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Mar	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Apr	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
May	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
June
July	45	44	1	53.3	46.8	6.5
Aug	45	44	1	53.3	46.8	6.5
Sep	45	47	-2	51.0	49.0	2.0
Oct	49	48	1	51.3	48.8	2.5
AVG	46.00	45.75	0.25	52.19	47.81	4.38
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Notes:
1) State and Nat. projections assume
60% undecided/other to Kerry.
2) State votes calc. by weighting polls
3) All state polls: 4% MoE
Simulation Methodology:
*
random numbers applied to
normal distribution for
5000 election trials.
Project Kerry pct of
state popular vote.
Nat % based on total
state votes.
Win Probability is pct of
simulation trials Kerry wins
(at least 270 EV).
Normal Distribution calculates
Kerry state win probability,
based on mean poll value
and Std Dev 4.0% MoE/1.96.
Examples:
Kansas poll has Kerry at	39.25%
Probability he wins state	0.00%
Maine poll has Kerry at	58.25%
Probability he wins state	100.00%
Generate RND no. X
between 0 and 1.
If X is lower than
Kerry prob of win
he wins state.
Simulation: 5000 trials.
Calc.  Avg  EV.
Most likely case:
Kerry's proj:  poll value
plus 60% of  undec/other.
Historically, undecideds
break 2/1 for challenger.
Example:
Kerry leads 46-44 with 10%
Add 6% for 52- 48 win.
EFFECT OF POLLING SAMPLE SIZE,  MOE AND STD
ON THE ACCURACY OF THE SAMPLE MEAN
National polls: sample 1000
State polls: sample 600.
Margin of Error:
4.0% for 600 sample.
3.1% for 1000 sample.
Decreases as size (n) increases.
0.80% for 15 polls (15000 samples).
Win Probability Matrix displayed
for various poll sample sizes.
11-Poll and 16-Poll group averages
used for probability of a majority
for up to 15,000 samples (15 polls).
The more samples drawn, the
more accurate the sample mean.