The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock. [2002]

Sustainable exploitation of fish stocks is a target for the EU-CFP. Landings are regulated through TAC, but this does not directly lead to control of the actual catches

The spawning stock biomass was at a new historic low in 2001, and the risk of stock collapse is high (ICES 2001). During February and April 2001, a large part of the North Sea was closed for cod fishing for 10 weeks to protect juvenile cod, as part of an emergency recovery plan. Currently the TAC has been set at approximately 50 % of the TAC of 2000 and technical measures are in place. The EC has proposed additional effort regulations in the structural recovery plan proposal for cod and hake, but the decision process will take at least half a year.

The North Sea cod stock is outside safe biological limits. This situation is also true in all waters adjacent to the North Sea, where this species is distributed. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) is calculated to have been below Bpa (Biomass precautionary approach reference point) for the last 17 years (since 1984). The status of the North Sea cod stock indicates that a sustainable EU CFP is still far from the target of sustainable fish-resource management.

Sustainable exploitation of fish stocks is a target for the EU-CFP. Landings are regulated through TAC, but this does not directly lead to control of the actual catches. The principle of regulating landings is, eventually, hoped also to regulate fishing mortality. It has been claimed that management by TAC’s alone is hardly possible, and that regulation of effort has to be considered in addition to, or preferably, in replacement of, TAC regulations. The present status of the North Sea cod stock seems clearly to support this statement. The TACs are based on advice from relevant ICES working groups issuing annual assessment reports based on catch statistics, surveys and calculations of a number of central parameters for each stock.

Defining the status of a fish stock as an indicator of fisheries policy and management requires that a long-term management strategy, not only for the actual fish stock, but the entire network of fish, birds and mammals stocks interacting with, in this context, the North Sea cod. This implies that a strategy for exploitation of cod has to be prepared together with a strategy for exploiting its major prey species like herring and sand-eel. Additionally, relations with interacting species (e.g. competition with or predation on juveniles from e.g. mackerel) as well as species that are caught together with cod (e.g. whiting and haddock) and sea birds and mammals should be taken into account.

The cod stock in the North Sea spawns widespread in this sea, and high concentrations of cod-egg have been found in the English Channel, at the Dogger Bank and along the Scottish coast. In the 1980s, the main nursery areas were in the German Bight and the south-eastern part of the North Sea. In the last decade juvenile cod are found over a wide area in the central North Sea, and are typically absent from the German Bight. The North Sea cod becomes sexually mature at an age of 3–5 years.

Several countries participate in the cod fisheries in the North Sea. Towed gears in mixed fisheries, which include haddock and whiting, take cod. They are also taken in directed fisheries using fixed gears. By-catches of cod occur in flatfish and shrimp fisheries especially in the Southern North Sea and in fisheries for Norway lobster. The total catch of cod in the North Sea (ICES region IV) has decreased from 300 000 t in 1981 to 59 000 t in 2000 (ICES 2001).

ICES recommended a recovery plan that will ensure recovery of the spawning stock to a level in excess of 150 000 t. If the recovery plan is not implemented, ICES recommended that fishing mortality on cod should be reduced to the lowest possible level in 2002. Reductions in TAC alone are, as mentioned, not considered effective in regulating fishing mortality. Restrictions in fleet efforts should also be implemented. In addition, the regulations must include a change in the fishing patterns, such as increasing effective mesh size, and attempts to reduce discard, by-catches and under-reporting of catches.

Given the lack of a recovery plan for 2003, the scientific advice is to close targeted cod fishing in the North Sea, Irish Sea, West of Scotland, Skaggerak and Kattegat. A ban on haddock and whiting fishing is also recommended because cod is a by-catch in those fisheries. It has not proved enough just to reduce cod fishing over the last few years. Unfortunately, it seems that cutting quotas can lead to falsified catch declarations and illegal fishing. Scientists have therefore repeatedly warned that we must also reduce fishing effort so that we can better monitor compliance with total allowable catches and thus avoid giving an over-optimistic picture of the state of our stocks.

The 1990 ICES report on cod and other stocks: fishing mortality rates can only be reduced on these stocks by direct control of fishing effort, the ICES findings were sent to the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), which advised that the probability of cod stock recovery will remain low unless stringent management action is taken immediately.

The recent ICES advice (October 2002) relating to cod and associated species is the result of the cumulative failure to control fishing pressure on a range of stocks over the last decade.

As long ago as 1992 ICES advice was, 'Recovery of the cod stock would require, at minimum, a marked and sustained reduction of effort or even a closure of the fishery'.

The advice was repeated in 1993. In 1996 ICES noted that 'recent analyses …suggest that the stock may collapse under fishing mortality rates above 0.75. Present fishing mortality is above this level.'

ICES also stated that, 'As it is unlikely that a lower fishing mortality can be achieved by the application of technical measures and or TACs/quotas alone, ACFM believes that the required decrease can only be achieved by a reduction in effort in the directed fisheries for cod and the mixed roundfish fisheries which take a large cod component'.

It is quite clear that ICES believed that substantial action was required many years ago and warned that traditional management tools were not working.

More recent advice in 2000 and 2001 was 'that fishing mortality on cod should be reduced to the lowest possible level' and re-iterated the failure of TACs to bring about the necessary reduction. This advice was only one step short of a closure.

In 2002 the seriousness of the cod problem prompted the North Sea Commission Fishery Partnership to conduct a thorough review of the ICES cod assessment.

It was carried out by three independent North American scientists chosen, not by ICES, but by the Partnership. Both the Scottish Fishermen's Federation and the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations participated actively in the review. The industry knew in August exactly what was in the assessment and agreed that it provided a fair interpretation of the state of the stock.

Much has been made in the press about the industry survey contradicting the scientific assessment. Yet the industry survey was also reviewed in August by the Partnership and found to be entirely consistent with the ICES assessment. The survey notes the absence of cod in the southern North Sea and its 'spotty' distribution.

Sadly this does not indicate fish have moved north but that large areas are now critically depleted. This is a classic symptom of a stock close to collapse and happened with the Canadian cod and the North Sea herring before their demise.

But why, if both the industry survey and the ICES assessment indicate more cod in 2002 compared to 2001 does ICES recommend a closure?

Firstly, the current death rate of cod, due to all factors, exceeds the rate at which recruits are being produced. It does not matter whether the deaths are due to fishing, seals, temperature change or disease, the stock has been ground down so much that it simply cannot produce enough juveniles to compensate and is in long term decline. You can see this in the figure which shows the numbers of one year old cod produced each year since 1963.

The numbers vary a lot but are declining, with the most recent years the poorest on record. The variation explains why some years are better than others, but whichever way you look at it the trend is downward.

Secondly, the current assessment has revised the estimate of spawning biomass in 2001 from 50,000t down to only 30,000t. This change in the assessment has been seen before and shows that ICES has tended to under-estimate the rate of decline of the stock.

The estimated increase in 2002 to 38,000t is still well below the previously calculated lowest value and there are fears that it too, may be over-optimistic.

The apparent improvement in 2002 is temporary and is likely to reverse in the next few years. That could happen rapidly and irreversibly as happened in Canada.

Fishing is virtually the only factor we can control, so if we want a sustainable fishery for cod in the future, it is fishing pressure that we have to reduce. And because the reduction has been left so late, it has to be very big and very soon. Recent decommissioning is a step in the right direction, but unfortunately it is simply not enough to halt the decline.

For Scotland, and some English boats there is an added problem. Since 1999 there have been no good year classes of haddock in the North Sea.

That means the stock will decline rapidly after 2003 and unless a good year class appears soon, haddock could also collapse. The signs are that 2004 could be a crunch year for roundfish boats. We need to plan to face that problem now, it is not just cod that are in jeopardy.

Scientists have wrestled with the problem of this very difficult advice knowing that it will have huge implications. It was not given lightly and it remains only scientific advice. The management challenges in dealing with it are enormous but they need to be faced if we are to have sustainable fisheries in the future.

Fishing mortality has increased gradually, and has been above the precautionary limit since 1980. Except the 1996-year class, recruitment to the North Sea cod stock has been below average since 1987. ‘The 1997 and 2000 year classes are estimated to be the poorest on record (ICES 2001). Annual landings of cod from the North Sea and some adjacent waters in the period 1963–2000 are given in, together with the assessment parameters for the same period.

As a prominent fish stock of the North Sea, and being one of the most intensively studied, monitored (and exploited) fish stocks at all, the North Sea cod stock is considered a highly relevant indicator of the implementation and performance of a sustainable CFP within the EU. This resource is shared with non-EU countries, (The Faeroe Islands, Norway) and proper management also requires cooperation outside EU internal structures. This is both a challenge and a benefit, but in the end, a necessity.

Research and management actions towards maintaining the cod stock at a level where traditional exploitation level can be maintained is a biologically and socioeconomic necessity. However, as an indicator of the performance of the CFP, where the North Sea cod is a key fish stock, indicates a necessary and profound change in attitude, implying stronger emphasis on data quality, reliability and coverage (both topical, temporal and geographic). A clear-cut target for the indicator, and enough strength to enforce necessary steps also seems to emerge as a bare necessity.

Some very basic information is currently unsatisfactory; knowledge on the spawning areas of North Sea cod is old and probably outdated. An egg survey is planned by ICES for 2003, but there is still a methodological problem as to how to distinguish early stage eggs of haddock and cod.

To specifically ascertain that the observed low recruitment is caused by the low SSB. As a precautionary action, the desire for scientifically accurate data must not lead to the stock being depleted while research is in progress.

Research on quantifying factors affecting the recruitment of North Sea cod seems appropriate (contamination, climate changes, predator/prey interactions on egg/larvae etc) as part of a multi-species-ecosystem management regime.