Industry Trends
According to the Standard & Poor�s Stock Report of Carnival Corporation on October 12, 2002, leisure travel in the last year since 9/11 has fared better than business travel.  The overall outlook in the Standard & Poor�s Hotels, Resorts and Cruises index is negative.  This opinion varies on individual stocks.  Overall this index through year to date - October 4, 2002 has been down 20.3%.

Wall Street analyst opinions reflect the average buy/hold/sell recommendations.  From 2000 through October 11, 2002 the analyst consensus was to hold the stock.   While the Standard & Poor�s rating reflects a strong buy/hold opinion (see below), the Wall Street consensus reflects a rising consensus to hold.  Research shows that a rising consensus opinion reflects a favorable near-term stock performance.

Carnival Corporation�s Standard and Poor�s Rating


SELL                         BUY/HOLD                         BUY
                                        * * *

Standard & Poor�s STARS ranking reflect a Hold status.  This rating is a Standard & Poor�s analyst evaluation that evaluates the short-term (6 to 12 month) appreciation potential of a stock.

The largest industry players� data is noted below.  Note that the P&O Princess purchase transaction by Carnival has not been completed so it is still considered a separate company at the time of this website posting.
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* The stock price noted above reflected in U.S. dollars/share.
Royal Caribbean and Princess Cruise lines have had a significant percentage increase in their stock prices as compared to Carnival Cruises.  The lowered percentage price change may reflect Carnival�s strategy to invest in new shipbuilding.  Two additional SuperLiners with the 2,040 and 2,100 capacity will be added soon.  Carnival has options with the same shipbuilders to add two ships with a total 4,200-passenger capacity.   In addition, Costa Cruises has an agreement with the same shipbuilder to build a ship with capacity for 2,100 passengers. 

Another Italian shipbuilder has an agreement for the construction of two ships with a capacity of 2,766 passengers for Carnival.  Holland America Line will also add two new ships with capacity for 1,440 and 1,380 passengers.   Shipbuilding investments are usually higher and may have taken funds from merchandising or other critical areas of customer service.   However, Carnival is making a solid investment for a prolonged growth strategy across the leisure industry�s price-point target market. 

This leisure industry is considered a consumer discretionary sector which makes the industry sensitive to the economic and political environment and extremely sensitive to terrorist acts or other national security issues.

How does Carnival compare to the Industry?  Carnival Corporation has managed to maintain a 28.6 percentage average market share of sales for the industry from the period 1997 to 2001.
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