A
Glimpse into the Future, Science or Fiction?
By Andrei Shkarubo
Why study cycles?
We have entered into a complex, controversial
stage of human development, a stage when a human being, sensing his inability
to comprehend developments, his inaptitude to meet the mounting challenges of
Time, either traditionally turns to Faith seeking help of his Creator, or, relying
more on his own faculties, sets out on the path of Knowledge.
Persistent attempts to study cycles of various
processes and phenomena so as to understand their nature and thereby get a
glimpse into the Future are our choice of the path of Knowledge.
On the other hand, whatever path we choose,
science or faith, we must keep in mind that despite their seeming difference,
even conflict, for those who pursue their choice sincerely and selflessly both
paths will become inseparable.
Standard definition
of ‘cycle’
Before speaking about the cyclical nature of various
processes and phenomena, problems of studying cycles and applying our knowledge
of cycles to solve various dilemmas the Time is posing, we should clarify the
notion of ‘cycle’ so as to avoid any misunderstanding.
The most concise, comprehensive and
comprehensible definition is given in the dictionary of Encyclopedia Britannica. Here’s what it says
pertaining to the issue under study:
“Cycle n [ME cicle,
fr. LL cyclus, fr. Gk kyklos circle, wheel,
cycle--more at wheel] (14c) 1: an interval of time during which a sequence of a
recurring succession of events or phenomena is completed
2 a: a course or series of events or operations
that recur regularly and usu. lead back to the starting point
b: one complete performance of a vibration,
electric oscillation, current alternation, or other periodic process
c: a permutation of a set of ordered elements in
which each element takes the place of the next and the last becomes first
3: a circular or spiral arrangement…”
Problems of cycles’
study
The first thing we notice trying to understand
ourselves and the surrounding world is repetition, cyclical nature of processes
and phenomena under our scrutiny.
Actually, it’s their repetitive nature which
makes what we call ‘learning’ possible: All
our knowledge, our inductive-deductive thinking with its philistine
prayer-slogan “That’s how it is, and that’s how it will be!” are nothing but an
array of stereotypes synthesized from what we perceive as recurring fragments
of reality, stereotypes we are trying to use in recurring, stereotypical
situations.
The successful use of our ‘knowledge’ is
seriously hampered by a number of factors, though.
First, we know how to act in a conventional
situation, but we cannot always know when this situation is to emerge.
What we know though is that the late solution
is as good as its absence.
Which raises a question as to how to determine
periodicity of the situation we are interested in?
The answer seems to be simple: one should clock
the time period from the start of the situation to its end – which ends with
the start of another situation, similar to the previous one.
That’s how we’ve found out that any process or phenomenon has its own
periodicity, frequency.
This humble truth was received as a fundamental
discovery which they tried to use in practice, with limited, if dubious,
effect.
To justify these setbacks in application, some
tried to manipulate the results to fit their unsophisticated theory.
Which is not difficult, bearing in
mind that they measure time period from the start of one phenomenon till the
start of another, similar one. But this similarity is usually determined rather superficially, which
leads to inevitable confusion and manipulations.
But try as one might to interpret facts to fit one’s
theory, it’s no use arguing with reality.
Practice and further observations make one
acknowledge the fact that frequency of
processes or phenomena can change with time.
The futile attempts to determine algorithm, the
nature of these changes make one conclude that the universal measure, Time, we
use in our cycles’ research is inadequate for practical solution of our problems.
That beside the universal measure we need a
universal methodology of measuring which stipulates possession of a
qualitatively deeper, much more abstract, knowledge about the nature of Time
and cycles, their structure and algorithm of development; a methodology which
could explain to us not just what we are to measure and with what, but how we
are to measure and why.
One must say that human thought, which hasn’t
given up the idea to acquire the ability of taking a peep into the Future, has
already tried for this very purpose to present a description of the cycle.
That’s why they created dialectics which sought to explain the development of
processes and phenomena using a sequence of specific characteristics present in
every cycle of development. (see 2 a. meaning of
cycle’s dictionary definition).
But this theory, even in its latest edition
known as Marxist dialectics, was unable to meet the challenges of Time because
it was limited to cycle’s description, quite simplified too. It didn’t try to
penetrate into its origins, although it is the insight into the origin of
things which is a prerequisite for creation of a universal methodology.
New understanding
of cycles
One should emphasize here that the language of
physics is currently the best medium to describe the nature of cycles and
vibrations in general offering the most accurate reflection on the realities of
the world.
(Those who are interested to know how physics fit in here could consult Yuri Ivanov’s book of Rhythmodynamics chapter called ‘Spider-effect’, ‘Logic of Rhythmodynamics)
Using this medium one may assert that contradictions,
or polarities, which lie at the foundation of any cycle of development, in
other words, the cause of cycles,
vibrations and inertia in general lies in disparity of frequency
characteristics between the form, outer manifestation, and the inner content of
a phenomenon.
For example, contradictions between content and
form of such entity as man, i.e. between his mind and body, are caused by the fact
that the frequency of oscillations (the speed of work) of his mind is much
higher than the frequency (the speed of physiological processes) of his body.
Such phase-frequency discord triggers amplitude
rise, i.e. causes internal contractions, tension (known in the physical body as
‘tonus’, or stamina) and finally triggers various kinds of motion.
Applying the same approach, one can state that our universal measure, Time, is also nothing but a stable periodicity emerging after superimposition of a) frequency of our perception on b) frequency of the perceived process or phenomenon. (For detail, see Dialectics of New Vision. 2. Three visions of the world).
In other words, Time is a cycle too, and all
our time calculations must take into account its conditionality and relativity,
i.e. take into account first of all the limits of our perception and our mind
in general (see details in 1. Nature of dialectics).
So, the language of physics gives us a chance
both: to get rid of excessive subjectivity with which the old dialectics
describes cycles, and to create new dialectics, a really universal methodology
for cyclical processes’ analysis.
Cycle’s structure
Guided by difference in phase-frequency regimes,
one can divide a cycle into four phases:
1st ‘informational’ phase, named so
because of its high frequency, low amplitude characteristics which make them
impossible to perceive directly. This phase could also be called the “phase of
sleep” because of the absence of any noticeable tension or movement in it;
2nd ‘energy-materialization’ phase,
named so because of the phase-frequency shift which leads to a sharp drop in
frequency and amplitude rise, which in turn trigger a hike in tension,
emergence of stable structures, then turning into manifest, material ones;
unlike the first phase of ‘sleep”, the second phase could be called “the phase
of awakening”;
3rd ‘material’ phase is the opposite
of the 1st ‘informational’ phase, being marked by its relatively low
frequencies and high amplitudes.
The sharp drop of frequency and amplitude rise
characteristic of the preceding, 2nd phase, slows down in the 3rd; ‘materialization’ of stable structures is
replaced by growth of ‘material’ forms, the rising tension there, internal
distortions make these forms move;
Unlike the two preceding phases of ‘sleep’ and
‘awakening’, the 3rd phase could be called ‘active wakefulness’.
4th ‘energy-dematerialization’ phase
is the opposite of 2nd ‘energy-materialization’ phase:
phase-frequency shift disappears, amplitude drops sharply, frequency rises,
which is perceived as falling tension and disintegration of stable ‘material’
structures;
rapid disappearance of phase-frequency shift
can trigger a new temporary shift, with the opposite vector and, appropriately,
opposite tension capable of reorganizing
the disintegrating material structures into their antipode of sorts, which won’t
last long though; after which tension drops to zero, and all grinds to a halt,
signaling the start of the 1st informational phase of a new cycle;
the 4th phase could be called the
‘dropping asleep’ phase.
In each of the four phases one can distinguish
three periods: judging by their outward signs,
these are a) a period of tension-acceleration; b) a
period of peak, relative calm and rectilinear motion; c) a period of
‘relaxation’-slow down;
Judging by their inner, wave, characteristics,
these are a) a period of a phase shift b) a period of resonance c) a period of
phase shift disappearance.
On the whole, the cycle consists of four
phases, or twelve periods, which have their own
specific phase-frequency regime.
To illustrate this, one can mark the cycle as a circle with a square entered in it, its sides representing the cycle’s four phases, and/or with a regular dodecagon whose sides represent the cycle’s twelve periods.
Besides, in cases when a more detailed analysis
is required, each of the four phases or 12 periods could, in turn, be regarded
as a small cycle made up of two halves: the first one, taking into account its
physical, wave, parameters, can be identified by the rising phase-frequency
shift, i.e. dropping frequency and rising amplitude; the other half, on the
contrary, by decreasing phase- frequency shift, i.e. rising frequency and
dropping amplitude.
Problems of cycle’s
analysis
Naturally, the above-cited (brief to fit
article format) interpretation of the nature of cycle, and its description are
most likely to provoke nothing but perplexity and irritation amongst the
majority of analysts who analyze cyclical processes and phenomena
superficially, paying attention only to visible, formal characteristics.
Seeking, for example, to determine periodicity,
and thereby, likelihood of military conflicts in the history of state, few of
them would care to inquire into the origins of war and its role in the
historical cycle of state.
It’s not a question of idle curiosity, bearing
in mind that, as it was said before, they measure time period from the start of
one phenomenon till the start of another, similar one.
But similarity is usually determined by the
phenomenon’s formal features, rather than its inner essence.
For example, giving formal description of the
war, one could say that “War is an organized fight conducted with the use of
arms and physical power between peoples, states or sides in the domestic armed
conflict”. And as a result of this, one’s analyses of the periodicity of wars
and their forecasts would vary more strikingly than random guesswork.
Still, if one were to try to penetrate in the
origins of this phenomenon, and determine its role in all its dynamic
interrelations, one would, like Klausewitz, consider
war as a continuation of policy by other, confrontational, means, i.e. regard
war as a period in the state’s historical cycle whose task is either
destruction of internal structures of state governance, or complete destruction
of state, both its inner content: political system, state structures, and its
outer form, sovereignty – the choice of task depends on political choice of goal.
With such approach one has only to determine what phase-frequency regimes trigger, and thereby what periods in the cycle correspond to such visible manifestations of war as tension, conflicts, collisions, disintegration of structures and destruction of form.
These are, first of all, the 1st
period which begins the 2nd ‘energy-materialization’ phase, the
period of abrupt phase-frequency shift which causes inner strains, acceleration
and, consequently, conflict, collision.
There is a corresponding period in the
historical cycle of an emerging state, with a new socio-political formation –
it’s a period of civil or national-liberation war (depending on actual
situation) in which the old ruling class, the carrier of old ideology, is
destroyed, and a new class wins, the carrier of new ideology which already
triumphed in the preceding ‘informational’ phase, the phase of ‘revolutions’
during which the information content of any entity or phenomenon is replaced.
During the 2nd and 3rd
periods of the 2nd phase the triumphant hegemon
creates its own state and its hierarchic structures of governance.
The 1st period of 3rd
‘material’ phase is the usual period of tension and acceleration. This time
it’s the form which is rapidly growing: the state is speedily growing its
muscle so as to survive, to win in the inevitable conflict, war, with its
rival.
The emergence of the rival is practically
unavoidable because its inception has purely physical nature: the birth of the
state, like emergence of any entity, could be compared to a creation of a
powerful wave, vortex, which the energy-informational environment, by its force
of inertia, counters creating the antipode, an entity similar in form, but
opposite in essence, and therefore with the opposite vector.
Antiphase effect follows when in the 2nd
‘resonance’ period of the 3rd ‘material’ phase external conflict
takes place, war, collision of two equal rival powers. The recent history has a
stark example of such conflict: between the
The emerged victor-state enters the 4th
‘energy-dematerialization’ phase with its typical frequency rise and amplitude
drop causing, right from the 1st period, disintegration of
hierarchical structures which usually manifests itself in outbreaks of domestic
regional conflicts.
Internal regional
conflicts, ‘small wars,’ are typical throughout the energy-dematerialization
phase. These
conflicts usually continue after the state’s collapse which happens during the
2nd period of the 4th phase, and they usually end with
the invasion by an outside power, and complete or partial occupation of the
fragments of the collapsed state.
So, in one historical cycle we have, as a rule,
four military conflicts: 1) internal civil or national-liberation war 2)
external conflict-collision of two equal powers 3) domestic regional conflicts
4) invasion-occupation.
While a fairly stable periodicity of a certain
type of conflict, recurring in each cycle, is quite possible, the periodicity,
existence of equal time periods between those four types of wars inside the
cycle is quite problematic.
Emergence of an additional, inner or outer,
force in a particular arrangement under study can swiftly change the cycle’s
existing time proportions.
As it was said before, the periodicity of
processes and phenomena can change with time. These changes reflect various
stages in cycle’s development: say, the cycle with ‘immature’
informational-structural content has growing, extending periods; the periods of
‘mature’ cycles do not change, while the periods of ‘aging’ cycles shrink. Such
‘age’ peculiarity is well-known to human beings: Time drags for children, and
runs away on the elderly.
I cannot say anything on the ratio of growing
or shrinking of such cycles’ periods. It might be logical to suggest that it
could be the golden mean ratio – whether it is so, or
there’s some other, more complex formula, I cannot say for I haven’t examined
this issue.
Anyway, the inability to give exact cycle’s
calculations is partly recompensed by our ability to observe the dynamics of
cycle’s development; the ability provided by dialectics with its detailed
description of cycle. This detailed description, like a detailed map, gives us
a chance to ‘get our bearings in the field’, so to speak, i.e. determine in
what period of a cycle we are, and find out what we are shortly to expect
around the next corner.
Of course, even the detailed knowledge of
dialectics is not always sufficient.
Cycle’s model
Dialectics is a methodology of analysis, its
knowledge may be sufficient for making forecasts and general planning, but
insufficient for taking concrete steps in response to those forecasts – we must
bear in mind that forecasts and planning are subject to management.
What’s needed for
effective management is an equally abstract model of the cycle, or at least the
knowledge of its working mechanism.
Bearing in mind that the notion of ‘cycle’ is
inseparable from the notion of ‘oscillation’, it might be logical to compare
the cycle to an LC oscillator circuit, in which capacitor plays the role of the
outer form of a process or phenomenon, while inductor plays the role of their
inner content.
The phase-frequency shift, the force of
inertia, which supports fluctuations between those two oscillators, is
influenced primarily by their inner, structural and constructional, properties.
To illustrate creation of the ‘acceleration –
sharp deceleration’ regime to which the rising phase-frequency shift of the
first half of the cycle corresponds, one can compare the work of oscillators to
swings with a man in them, who sways them by shifting his ‘center of gravity’,
i.e. by squatting each time the swings stop, having reached their amplitude
peak.
The more powerful his ‘center of gravity”, and
his squatting are the greater is the resulting shift.
In other words, the oscillator’s
phase-frequency parameters are defined by its inner structure, i.e. the stuff
it’s made of, the level of integration of its elements, what geometric
construction they form, how flexible it is, capable of reconstructing itself,
and replacing its elements.
Bearing in mind, that we have already singled
out three frequency bands in the cycle: informational, energy and material, the
cycle itself could be presented as a cascade of three oscillator circuits which
during the first half of the cycle works in ‘acceleration – sharp deceleration’
regime, thereby lowering frequency and raising amplitude of the
information-energy flow. The regime which initially triggers the flow’s
polarization, division into low, carrier, frequencies (lower classes, plebes) and
high, informational frequencies (ruling classes and their subservient
intelligentsia); during this conflict the latter are partially ‘erased’,
destroyed – after which structuralization, creation
of a hierarchy of structures and their subsequent materialization take place.
In the first half of the cycle the
energy-informational flow could be compared to a spherical energy whirlpool
which, responding to polarization, first, like a soap bubble grows in size;
then, stretching along its longitudinal, vertical, axis, separates from the
straw and begins its own life.
During the second half of the cycle, the
cascade of oscillators works in ‘short, impulse-like, acceleration – then deceleration’
regime, raising thereby the flow’s frequency and lowering its amplitude. Which
triggers processes opposite to those which took place in the 1st
half of the cycle, i.e. destruction and decay (this time it’s the lower
frequencies, ‘the plebes’, which are erased) – in which case the energy bubble
shrinks in its longitudinal axis and stretches in its lateral axis which causes
its collapse – its sharp reduction in size, then complete disappearance, i.e.
its transfer to informational band.
Continuing our parallels with polarization
process through ‘acceleration-deceleration’ technique, we could cite the
example of a watercourse blocked by a dam, or cascade of dams, which is to
decelerate the water flow and thereby raise its level-tension, so that it could
accelerate it later.
Graphically, this regime could be identified
with a cross in which the vertical line signifies the flow, kinetic energy, and
its acceleration, polarization; while horizontal line signifies the dam,
creating potential energy by decelerating the flow, expanding and raising its
level.
Note: Expansion is a feature of restoration
function, the rise of potential energy. Example: swollen forms resulting from
physical exercises, fasting, etc.
If the process of acceleration-deceleration
were examined in three frequency bands which, in any entity, represent 1) its
informational content 2) its structural content 3) its outer form, then
graphically, the whole process of acceleration-deceleration could resemble a
Christian Orthodox cross with its three cross-bars; though its top bar would
actually denote three-dimensional deceleration-expansion, while the other two –
two-dimensional deceleration-expansion taking place in perpendicular to each
other planes.
Hardly a coincidence, just a
manifestation of the general wave nature of processes and phenomena, seemingly
differing and incomparable.
Though briefly herein described, the mechanism
of cycles is quite controllable, provided appropriate structural and constructional requirements
are observed. Therefore it’s small wonder if, for
example, some seemingly unavoidable period in the cycle of state development
like military conflict would suddenly disappear, sublimating into other
bloodless forms.
Here’s two contrasting examples: The downfall
of an authoritarian regime with its notorious and mob-primitive (i.e. built
from top to bottom, exclusively for passing commands and their execution, and
precluding any feed-back) primordial ‘hierarchy of power’, usually reflecting
equally primitive ideology, means, in all likelihood, the civil war.
Whereas for a state with complex democratic
structure of governance the civil war is out of the question, even if its
socio-political formation is replaced, because the inevitable process of
periodic updates, even replacement, of ideology, political regime, and its
ruling classes is not just verbally, constitutionally, stipulated; it’s also
structurally provided for in the shape of active and broad network of
nongovernmental organizations.
External military conflicts between democratic
states are equally unlikely: the rivalry between them is limited to political
and economic wars.
Which is not surprising: the more complex the
cycle’s mechanism, the broader is the band of its working frequencies, the more
scenarios are possible along which some process or phenomena may develop.
The way the cut tree is estimated not just by
its outer, visible parameters, but also by the number and quality of its annual
circles-cycles on the cut surface, the cycle analysis, too, has to take into
account the structural aspect of the cycle’s three levels: informational,
energy and material which determine the cycle’s level of maturity, its level in
the spiral of dialectical development, the one which actually determines
whether the events would run in the form of tragedy, or farce.
In this article I only tried to outline those
key issues which require detailed research before our study of cycles can turn
from art, which it mostly is, into science, which it yet to become.
The question of application of the knowledge of
the cycle’s mechanism, its model for the purposes of management has not been
examined at all – its actually the next stage in the
cycle’s studies, a separate line of research.
Despite the obvious lack of modern knowledge on
the issue, it’s worth stressing that:
The deeper our
understanding of the cycle’s mechanism, the more accurate our forecasts and the
more effective response to them will be. Future is in our hands. Fatalism is
for those weak in spirit, and intellectually broke.
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Copyright © 2004 by A. Shkarubo
All rights reserved.
Links to related sites:
Foundation for the Study of Cycles Dialectics Cycles-Harmonics-Universe