Britain, Iran and Israel
HA'ARETZ 9/29/99: "In talks conducted last week in Jerusalem,
Britain presented Israel with confidence-building measures
proposed by Iran concerning nuclear weapons and pressured Israel
to respond favorably to them. The British delegation, which
included managers of the British Foreign Office, met with senior
Israeli representatives as part of the strategic dialogue Israel
and Britain hold every six months. The talks focused on
disarmament and arms control and the British presented proposals
which they said came from official Iranian sources.
At meetings
held in recent months, the Iranians presented the British with
general ideas for the disarmament of the Middle East. The
Iranians did not mention Israel's name, but the British had no
doubt that the Iranians had Israel in mind. They also had no
objection that Israel be informed of their proposals.
The British presented Israel with three main proposals:
* A
regional agreement not to strike first with missiles. The
Iranians propose that the countries of the region commit not to
use missiles in their possession for a first strike in war.
* An
agreement not to arm ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.
Iran agrees to commit not to arm its missiles with nuclear
warheads.
* Restrictions on the purpose of long-range missiles.
The Iranians are willing to commit that missiles with a range
greater than 1,300 kilometers (780 miles) will be developed
exclusively for the launching of satellites. The
technical-professional implication of this commitment is that the
Iranians are willing to relinquish precision and missile-guidance
capability for these missiles for ground targets...
The British insisted that Israel respond to the Iranian
proposals, but Israel refused to commit itself at this time.
Diplomatic sources say that Israel is in an uncomfortable
position because any concrete reaction to the Iranian proposals
would be problematic, since Israel has never officially admitted
that it has nuclear weapons or ground-to-ground missiles that can
be armed with nuclear warheads.
Defense sources say that the
possibility that the Iranian proposals' purpose is to deceive
Israel should not be ruled out. They believe the Iranians want to
safeguard their own long-range capability, which would include
Israel, and that this reflects aggressive intentions.
Israel
prepared itself for the possibility that the British might make
these proposals following a report in Ha'aretz on the subject
about three months ago. Tehran denied that it wanted to form
confidence-building measures with the "Zionist Satan," but it has
not withdrawn the proposals..."
Syrian peace talks
HA'ARETZ 9/29/99: "The U.S. believes that the stalled
Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese peace talks can be
kick-started despite remaining obstacles. U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, who attended the opening session of the U.N.
General Assembly, made the comments to the Conference of
Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations yesterday
morning.
"The issue here is whether we can find the way to
restart negotiations that will match the will that all sides
profess to feel," Albright said. Albright suggested that both
Israel and Syria, in particular, "clearly want to find a way
forward. Both are treating the other with unusual trust and
respect."
In Syria, according to Western sources, Bashar Assad's
involvement in internal and state affairs has grown significantly
of late. The second son and heir apparent of Syrian President
Hafez Assad has reportedly ousted several officers which he
accused of corruption.
According to the sources, the developments
follow recent reports of the Syrian president's deteriorating
health. Growing tensions were reported last week between Bashar
and supporters of his uncle, Rifat Assad, who was fired about 18
months ago from his official position as Syrian vice president
and currently resides in France. It was reported that Bashar last
week ordered a raid on his uncle's ranch, where about 550 of
Rifat's supporters were holed up. Bashar's forces backed down
following a shoot-out near the ranch, but, according to the
sources, Rifat's supporters, including senior officers, are still
in the ranch and were given an ultimatum to surrender by today.
Dr. Eyal Zisser, a researcher on Syrian affairs at Tel Aviv
University, said yesterday, "This is a signal from [Hafez] Assad
and Bashar that Rifat's presence is no longer wanted in Syria.
They are showing that Rifat has been unequivocally thrown out,
and that now he will be chased down systematically. Bashar wants
to make it clear that there is a new boss now and that Rifat is
under no circumstances a potential candidate."
The Mideast Mirror
reported recently that the dispute between Hafez and Bashar Assad
and Rifat Assad worsened following Rifat's participation in the
funeral of Morocco's King Hassan, and after the visit of Rifat's
son Sumar Assad, to Gaza. During the visit, Sumar Assad met with
Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. An Arab source said
yesterday that in recent years, Arafat has met Rifat during his
visits to Europe. The two also met during King Hassan's funeral."
PA safe passage agreement
HA'ARETZ 9/29/99: "Israel and the Palestinian Authority completed
negotiations yesterday to open up a safe passage between the Gaza
strip and the West Bank, and are expected to ratify the agreement
on Sunday. If ratified, the accord will take effect immediately.
According to the accord, the safe passage connecting Gaza to the
West Bank will be open at least 10 hours each day of the week. It
will not operate on Israeli public holidays.
The opening of the
safe passage will implemented in stages. The first phase will be
limited to Palestinians who are eligible to enter Israel. They
will receive magnetic cards enabling them automatic passage
through security checkpoints. As they enter Israel, an electronic
sticker will be attached to their cars.
The sticker, which will
be removed and deactivated when cars reach the other end of their
journey through Israeli territory, is timed to set off an alarm
within 90 to 120 minutes, by which time cars are expected to have
completed the journey and be out of Israel. If the car fails to
exit Israel within the given time, and the alarm goes off, it
will be treated by the police as a suspicious vehicle.
The second stage will include Palestinians who are ineligible to
enter Israel. They will receive magnetic cards allowing passage
only via special buses that will travel between Gaza and the West
Bank. The buses will not be allowed to stop in Israel, and will
be escorted by security services.
Security sources say that the
agreement is important for the Palestinians, and will have only a
negligible impact on domestic security. Currently, Palestinians
unable to enter Israel and wishing to cross between the two
chunks of PA-administered land must travel from Gaza to Egypt and
from there to Jordan, where they can enter the West Bank."
Tax reform?
HA'ARETZ 9/29/99: "Finance Minister Avraham Shochat's
announcement, made during the interview he granted to Ha'aretz in
Washington yesterday, that income tax reform should be completed
by February 2000 badly discombobulated Finance Ministry officials
back in Jerusalem. They assume that the moment Shochat lands at
Ben-Gurion International Airport, he will convene his top
officials and announce the appointment of a panel to handle the
reform. The treasury begs to remind everyone, however, that for
all of tax reform's importance, progress should be made
cautiously. Since the Ben-Shahar panel of 1975, not a single
government has managed to push through any significant change in
the structure of direct taxation.
The teams abound through
history: from Shishinsky in the early 1990s, to a program
formulated under then Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai (z"l), to
the plan to tax stock market gains touted by Shochat during his
first term as finance minister to the Brodet Commission and the
Ne'eman Committee - and that is far from an exhaustive list of
the segments of officialdom who have devoted time to tax reform,
and who have failed to achieve results, over the last two
decades.
The real options: Shochat can choose one of three
options: to set up (yet another) panel of experts (like the
Ben-Shahar panel); to set up a treasury panel (like the Ne'eman
Committee of 1998); or to convene a commission of top treasury
people augmented by a few external experts. Shochat's
announcement that the unappointed-as-yet panel would finish its
work within five or six months indicates that his mind is leaning
toward a treasury panel...
Prime Minister Ehud Barak promised during his election campaign,
and afterward too, to comprehensively reform the tax system, and
soon. The One Israel party and Shochat also vowed to reform the
tax system.
Bank of Israel Governor Jacob Frenkel, business
chiefs and leading academics all claim, and claim again, that the
government should put tax reform at the top of its list of
priorities. This government has an advantage over its
predecessor: a huge Knesset majority. The Ne'eman panel finished
its work right as the term of the previous government expired; at
that point, the majority it enjoyed was on paper only...
Meanwhile, two leading foreign investment houses - Salomon Smith
Barney and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter - published highly
flattering assessments of Israel's economy last week. Both base
their rosy forecasts on the peace process and its real fruits..."
Peres investigation requested
HA'ARETZ 9/30/99: "MK Gideon Ezra (Likud) has asked the State
Comptroller's Office to launch an investigation into the ties
between Minister of Regional Cooperation Shimon Peres and
businessman Bruce Rappaport. Although he is a former
deputy-director of the Shin Bet security service, Ezra is in this
case relying on an investigative report that appeared in the
mass-circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth.
Ezra has latched on the
report, according to which Peres, while he held senior positions,
including his period as prime minister, maintained ties with
Rappaport, whose name has been linked with dubious business
practices. According to Ezra, the report in the paper suggests
that in 1985 Rappaport, who was then a senior consultant to the
international construction giant
Bechtel, received a promise from
then Prime Minister Peres that Israel would never bomb the
Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline that Bechtel was then planning to build.
Rappaport also persuaded Peres to initiate a seawater
desalination project in Gaza, Ezra says, which would be
subsidized in part by Israel and from which Rappaport would
benefit financially.
In return, Ezra alleges, Rappaport in 1988
donated NIS 250,000 to the Labor Party, which Peres then headed,
and later also made a donation to the Peres Peace Center. Peres's
bureau said in reaction that Ezra's claims were entirely without
foundation and that he knows from positions he held in the past -
alluding to his period in the Shin Bet security service- that his
allegations are baseless. "It's a pity that Ezra is behaving like
a petty functionary," the statement said."
Lebanon pull-out may take longer
HA'ARETZ 9/30/99: "Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said
yesterday that Israel may have to delay its planned withdrawal
from Lebanon. Speaking at a press conference after a tour of the
security zone, Sneh said that when Ehud Barak made his promise to
withdraw Israeli troops from Lebanon within a year of taking
office, he had been working on the assumption that by that time
Israel would be engaged in negotiations with Syria regarding an
overall peace settlement. "If the current situation does not
change, we will have to reconsider", he said.
The remarks caught
the Premier's bureau by surprise, and caused some consternation.
Sneh subsequently backtracked somewhat, saying that Israel would
insist that any settlement ensure the complete cessation of
hostilities on its northern frontier. He added that he was
confident that by July 2000 negotiation with Syria on such a
settlement would be at an advanced enough stage to permit IDF
forces to withdraw to the international frontier.
Sneh clarified
that there was no conflict between his remarks and Barak's
policy, merely a difference of nuance regarding the date of the
planned Israeli withdrawal. When asked if the July date was
"carved in stone", he replied that only the security of Israel's
northern frontier was carved in stone. Ha'aretz later learned
that Sneh's remarks were coordinated with the prime minister, and
that there is no disagreement between the two men.
At the press conference Sneh accused Hezbollah of deliberately
attempting to escalate the fighting, so as to torpedo any
possibility of a breakthrough between Jerusalem and Damascus.
He
also denied reports that he had asked the security coordinators
in northern border settlements to draw up lists of requirements
following the IDF's withdrawal from Lebanon. SLA commander
General Antoine Lahad reaffirmed his confidence in his soldiers,
saying there would be no wholesale defections as long as his
troops remain sure that Israel will not abandon them, and will
take steps to protect them and their families once it commences
its planned withdrawal.
He disclosed that the SLA's casualty
rates had risen due to the fact that it bore the brunt of the
fighting in southern Lebanon, and that 80 percent of the outposts
were being held by SLA soldiers. One SLA soldier was killed and
two wounded yesterday in southern Lebanon when Hezbollah
terrorists shelled a SLA outpost. This was confirmed by an IDF
spokesman in Jerusalem, who said that the two wounded soldiers
were not in serious condition..."
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