Iranian missiles
Moscow's NEZAVISMOYE VOYENNOYE OBOZRENIYE 7/1/99--Article by Radzhab Sattarovich
Safarov, an expert of the RF State Duma, senior academic associate of the Diplomatic
Academy of the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and manager of the Center for the
Coordination of Russian-Iranian Programs, under the rubric "Expert Analysis":
"A Means of Changing Geopolitics--Having Tested a Medium-Range Missile, Iran Has
Staked Its Claim to Regional Leadership":
"Most Russian experts and many unbiased specialists in the West feel that the
collapse of the bipolar world, combined with the attempts of the United States to be the
world's prosecutor, judge, and executioner simultaneously, as clearly manifested in the
aggression against Yugoslavia, will lead to a sharp worsening of the regional arms race
and the disruption of the regime of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. One
more confirmation of this hypothesis is the "missile race" in the Near and
Middle East, which included first Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, and then Iran as well.
Iran, which recently tested its new Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, now
follows Pakistan and India, which became members of the nuclear club last spring, with a
serious application to join the countries possessing strategic capabilities.
Iran has thereby confirmed that it is henceforth able to reduce to naught the threats
that its leadership feels emanate from the United States, Israel, and Iraq. This missile,
which carries a warhead of one tonne, can cover the entire territory of Egypt, Israel,
some of the NATO countries, all of Central Asia, southern Russia, some of China and India,
and all the countries of the Persian Gulf. The Near East bases of the U.S. Navy and Air
Force are threatened as well, and Saudi Arabia becomes completely defenseless. Iran, with
the creation of the missile, has gained an opportunity to restore its control over the
Strait of Hormuz, strategically important in the Persian Gulf.
The nuclear option truly is attractive to Iran, since the nation has been too long
under international isolation. With the global drop in prices for energy resources, this
country now has neither the financial resources nor the steady sources of supply that
would allow it to reform its conventional armed forces.
The Iranian leaders have learned to prepare for the worst. Iran, it looks like, is
ready for and capable of unilateral military resistance even against the world community.
The Desert Storm, Desert Fox, and Allied Force operations have reinforced the Iranians'
conviction that military might is the sole real arbiter of international disputes and the
protection of national interests. They feel that the possession of just a few nuclear
warheads would be sound protection for Iranian sovereignty and freedom...
Whatever the attitude of the countries of the region, and first and foremost Russia,
toward the ideology and practices of the contemporary Islamic Republic of Iran, their
urgent concern today is to stay the hand of the other superpower from the Middle East. If
that is not prevented, then the already undermined prestige of Russia will fall
intolerably low, and there will be an end to independent politics in the southern region.
It will be necessary to admit, whether we like it or not, that a country tens of thousand
of miles away will become the supreme arbiter in the Transcaucasus and the expanses of
Central Asia.
The missile test was expected. A special commission under the leadership of former U.S.
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld warned that Iran, compared to North Korea, had made quite
serious advances in missile technology and had surpassed the worst expectations of the
United States. And even though it would still need several years to have its own missile
able to hit the United States, the Shahab-3 class missile could nevertheless inflict
serious harm on American allies (Israel, for example) or American troops in South Korea
and the Persian Gulf..."
Any PA compliance at all?
ARUTZ7 7/11/99: "Speaking to Arutz-7 today, former Netanyahu Cabinet Secretary and
Wye Accord negotiator MK Danny Naveh (Likud) said:
"Since the elections, I have not heard Prime Minister Barak once mention the need
for the Palestinian side to fulfill its obligations; I just hear him respond to the
demands that Israel implement the Wye Agreement.
At Wye, we were able to attain clear, concrete commitments from the PA that it would
dismantle terror organizations and their terrorist infrastructures; gather illegal
weapons; and reduce the size of the Palestinian police force.
I fear that if today, Arafat hears from Barak that Israel has returned to the era of
unilateral concessions with no insistence on reciprocity, Israeli interests could be
severely damaged."...
Analogy
ARUTZ7 7/11/99: "Palestinian sentiments regarding Jerusalem are identical to our
own." So says the Minister for Jerusalem Affairs in the Barak government, Chaim
Ramon. Speaking on Channel Two television last night, Ramon predicted that the
Palestinians would ultimately settle for de-facto Israeli sovereignty over the city. In
Ramon's view, if agreements are reached on other main issues, "the Jerusalem issue
will become less of a problem."
Burg invites Abu Ala
ARUTZ7 7/12/899: "Knesset Speaker Avraham Burg has invited Abu Ala, the chairman
of the Palestinian Legislative Council, to visit in the Knesset. Abu Ala, one of the
architects of the Oslo agreements, has already accepted the invitation. Likud Knesset
faction leader MK Ruby Rivlin said that the gesture represents the recognition of a
Palestinian state.
About a year ago, during a demonstration in Ramallah, Abu Ala trampled upon an Israeli
flag, on camera. Likud Chairman Ariel Sharon said that though Prime Minister Barak spoke
yesterday about Israel's commitment to carrying out the Wye Agreement, "we did not
hear one word [at the press conference following the meeting with Arafat] about the
Palestinians fulfilling their obligations!"
Barak's diplomatic advisor Tzvi Shtauber, in a possible attempt to compensate, said
today that the new government will insist that the Palestinians fulfill their own Wye
commitments simultaneously with the Israeli withdrawals. Sharon further said, "Arafat
talked about a 'peace of the courageous.' What this means, really, is Israeli willingness
to give in."
Barak in Jordan on regional tour
THE JERUSALEM POST 6/13/99: "Prime Minister Ehud Barak will this evening embark on
the last in his series of regional tours, traveling to Akaba for a late-night meeting with
Jordan's King Abdullah II. Barak's office said the meeting, like those held in Alexandria
on Friday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and at the Erez Junction on Sunday with
Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, is mostly intended to be a
"familiarization talk." Expectation, however, is that the focus of the meeting
will be the final-status talks, and specifically Jordan's role in those negotiations.
Jordan is concerned it may be shut out of final-status deliberations, even though most
of the issues to be negotiated - such as refugees, Jerusalem, and borders - pertain
directly to it...The Jordanians are not asking for a seat at the negotiating table,
Abdullah will tell Barak, only the promise that they will "not be left out of the
picture." Barak is keen to "touch base" with Abdullah prior to his trip to
the United States tomorrow, said the Prime Minister's Office..."
Meanwhile, despite repeated Israeli requests, the Palestinians have failed to call off
Thursday's conference in Geneva on alleged Israeli violations of the Fourth Geneva
Convention. Late last night, the compromise that seemed to be in the works was that the
conference would open and then immediately adjourn, not to be reconvened until January,
2000.
Sources said yesterday that 14 out the 15 European Union members states are in favor of
postponing the convention indefinitely, but that France backed the Arab position and
insisted a date for reconvening be appointed.
Foreign Minister David Levy met yesterday to discuss the matter of the conference with
US Ambassador Edward Walker. Levy said that while he would not term the situation a
crisis, he strongly believes the Palestinian stand is "counterproductive." The
Americans, who will be boycotting Thursday's conference, see eye-to-eye with Israel on
this matter, and have also been pressuring the Palestinians to give up the idea, Walker
said.
"It is impossible to call for an anti-Israel condemnation on the one hand, and to
claim to want to work together on the other," said Levy. "We very much hope the
Palestinians will come to understand this."..
Single Likud?
THE JERUSALEM POST 7/2/99: "The National Union and Yisrael Beiteinu yesterday
began talks with the Likud about possibly merging into a single list in which each would
remain an independent faction, The Jerusalem Post learned. The National Union and Yisrael
Beiteinu asked the Knesset Arrangements Committee to allow them to be considered a single
list when establishing the composition of Knesset committees.
Having submitted this request, the National Union's MK Benny Elon suggested expanding
this merger to include the Likud. He raised the idea during a meeting with Likud MKs Ruby
Rivlin, Michael Eitan, and Moshe Arens. Initially, the meeting focused on cooperation in
seeking representation on Knesset committees, but then Elon brought up the subject of
long-term links.
Speaking to the Post yesterday, interim Likud leader Ariel Sharon strongly hinted at
the possibility of a single right-wing party, saying that in the future he sees four blocs
in the Knesset: a strong Likud and an equally powerful Labor Party alongside a haredi and
an Arab bloc...Once merged, the National Union and Yisrael Beiteinu will be the
second-largest opposition list, with eight seats, eclipsing Shinui's six.
Knesset legal adviser Zvi Inbar said the Arrangements Committee has the authority to
approve the request, without waiting for the permanent Knesset House Committee to be
established. Eitan said the concept is at an embryonic stage and was only proposed as an
idea...
Meanwhile, 10 MKs from the Likud, National Religious Party, National Union, and Yisrael
Beiteinu decided yesterday to renew the right-wing Land of Israel Front, which played a
significant role in toppling the last government."
Barak & Settlers
THE JERUSALEM POST 7/13/99: "Settlers agreed yesterday to refrain from
establishing new encampments, Benny Kashriel, the newly appointed chairman of the Council
of Jewish Communties in Judea, Samaria and Gaza said after a meeting between settler
leaders and Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Both sides agreed to refrain from taking one-sided
actions.
"We hope this will be the first of many more meetings," he said, adding that
Barak will appoint an adviser in the Defense Ministry to deal directly with settlement
issues and that he would remain in direct contact with Yossi Kucik, the director-general
of the Prime Minister's Office.
Kashriel said Barak promised to investigate statements made by Minister of Industry and
Trade Ran Cohen who called for a freeze on financial assistance to the industrial parks in
Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Council spokeswoman Yehudit Tayar said Barak told the settlers he
would look into the issue. "While Barak takes great pains to impress that he is the
prime minister of all, it is a shame that one of his government's first decisions in fact
discriminates against the Jewish population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza," she said.
Hours before meeting with Barak, Kashriel, the mayor of Ma'aleh Adumim, was elected
council chairman with Uri Ariel, mayor of Beit El slated to become his deputy. Benzi
Lieberman, head of the Samarian Regional Council, was appointed vice chairman of the
council. Kashriel, considered a pragmatist, is secular and a staunch Likud supporter.
While he opposed the Oslo and Wye agreements, once the government voted in their favor
he called on settlement leaders to respect the decision that was taken democratically. He
would like to see Barak push forward to final status negotiations.
"The issues are far too important to be left until a later stage. You can't
discuss withdrawals from Judea and Samaria until the issues concerning Jerusalem and
others are resolved," he said. Kashriel, however, expects the present government to
uphold its policy of strengthening existing settlements according to natural growth. His
red lines are "no evacuation of settlements or encampments."...
Barak also met with Golan settlers and told them he planned to open negotiations with
Syria for peace with security. "If we discover that we can't reach an agreement at
least we will know that we tried everything within the framework of guarding the security
of the state,"he said in a prepared statement. He reiterated his promise of a
referendum before any withdrawal. Golan Residents' Committee Uri Heitner warned Barak of
the dangers of a "terrible rift" in the nation if any of the communities on the
Golan were to be uprooted."
Hezbollah demilitarization?
THE JERUSALEM POST 7/11/99: "The Iranian authorities have told Hizbullah spiritual
leader Hassan Nasrallah that the countdown to the movement's demilitarization has begun,
according to the cover story in the respected Arabic-language al-Majalla, to be published
in London today. The Saudi-owned newsweekly quotes senior sources close to the Iranian
government as saying that an aide to Iranian President Mohammed Khatami told Nasrallah
that Hizbullah must start preparing for the political role it will assume after the IDF
leaves Lebanon.
He also told Nasrallah, on a recent visit to Teheran, that Iran and Syria will assist
Hizbullah's transformation from a predominantly ideological militia to a party that is
fully integrated into Lebanese political life. Khatami is reported to have already started
reducing the supply of arms to Hizbullah and the funding for Hizbullah military
operations.
At the same time, he is increasing Iran's contributions to various Hizbullah-sponsored
welfare, cultural and educational institutions, which provide the foundation of the
movement's political support in Lebanon. Still quoting its Iranian sources, al-Majalla
reports in today's edition that Syria is now closely examining Iranian arms shipments
passing through Damascus en route to Lebanon.
And, it noted, the Syrian authorities have on several occasions blocked the transfer of
heavy weapons and rockets to Hizbullah. Syria's ostensible reason for interdicting these
weapons, says the newsweekly, is to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and protect Lebanese
civilians..."
Ettinger's back with leftist butt
kicking boots
HA'ARETZ 7/12/99: "Ettinger's back in town,is the rumor circulating in Washington.
Embassy veterans remember him from the days when he was Minister for Congressional
Affairs. They know that Yoram Ettinger isn't back in Washington for the new art shows.
Indeed, a few days after the Israeli elections, Jewish activists saw Ettinger's cowboy
boots striding through the halls of congress.
Ever since Benjamin Netanyahu arranged the Houston Consul-General's job for Ettinger in
the mid-80s, he hasn't taken off the boots. He wears them rain or shine, including on the
hottest summer days in Jerusalem. His friends say it helps him encourage conservative
congressmen from Texas to kick Israeli leftist government butt.
"Yitzhak Rabin meant Ettinger when the late premier talked about "the Three
Musketeers" who stormed Capitol Hill to foment opposition to Oslo. Ettinger's two
partners at the time were Yossi Ben Aharon, the former director general of Yitzhak
Shamir's bureau, and Yigal Carmon, Shamir's advisor on terrorism.
"Itamar Rabinovich, then Israel's ambassador to Washington, wrote of them in his
book "On the verge of peace," that Ettinger and Ben Aharon held meetings with
legislators and officials, journalists and Jewish activists, "to explain the dangers
of an agreement with Syria according to the Rabin government plan, and the dangers and
price of deploying U.S. soldiers on the Golan after an agreement is signed."
"On June 14, a document signed by Ettinger on stationery from the Ariel Center for
Policy Research, a right wing think tank, began circulating in Congress. The document says
that freeing the residents of Lebanon from the burden of Syrian occupation deserves the
same support that freeing Kosovans from Yugoslav occupation deserved.
The document claims that Syria is the world's biggest terror base, that Hafez Assad's
regime supplies services to activists who are anti-American, anti-Turkish, anti-Saudi and
anti-Israeli. Ettinger reminds his congressional readers that Syria was behind the Beirut
terror attack that killed 250 U.S. marines, and adds that it's important for Congress to
know that 20 percent of the heroin arriving in the U.S. comes from Lebanon.
"This is all happening while Syria is making special public relations efforts in
the U.S. On the eve of Prime Minister Ehud Barak's meeting with President Clinton about
ways to resume the talks with Syria, the foreign ministry in Damascus invited two
congressional aides (both of whom happen to be Jewish) to a series of meetings with top
officials in the Syrian capital. To their surprise they found a great deal of optimism
about a renewal of the negotiations with Israel in the streets and among Syrian business
people.
Another sign that Syria wants change in its status in the U.S., can be found in the
article published yesterday in the English-language Syria Times. The Syrians chose to use,
in terms understandable by any American, the term normalization in connection with
relations with Israel... "Rabinovich wrote that They managed to create a small active
community of legislators who made their goal doing everything possible to interfere in the
peace process.
"Their objections cast a shadow over Assad's expectations for a significant
improvement and upgrading of Syrian-U.S. relations in the wake of a signed agreement with
Israel. Assad never said so in public, but he let the U.S. understand that he expected
financial and economic aid similar to that the late Egyptian premier Anwar Sadat received
after signing his peace agreement with Israel. From that point of view, the congressional
opposition to an agreement between Israel and Syria and improved relations between
Washington and Damascus had a negative influence on Assad's motivation to move forward
toward an agreement with Israel."
In Damascus they say that Assad knows the Clinton timetable is very short. After
September, a mention of Clinton will be a reference to Hillary, herself in the midst of a
campaign for the senate from the world's biggest Jewish state, New York. That doesn't go
well with removing Jews from the Golan. The Syrian president wants to get a jump on
things. In order to prove that he isn't being pushed forward by his own mortality, he is
constantly reiterating that "70 to 80 percent of the agreement" is already in
place.
That will make it easier for him to explain the quick pace of negotiations that he so
much wants. The Americans already know that Assad is interested in U.S. soldiers and a UN
force on the Golan. Israel prefers Americans in a multi-national force, like in Sinai.
Ettinger and his pals won't have to break a seat - all they have to do is pull out the old
letters they sent to congressmen warning that U.S. soldiers on the Golan will end up with
the boys being sent home in plastic bags."
Sarid's promise
ISRAEL LINE 7/12/99: "Education Minister Yossi Sarid honored his election campaign
promise to teachers on Sunday when he earmarked funding in the Education Ministry to halt
a cut of 40,000 study hours planned for next year, HA'ARETZ reported. The canceled
cutbacks will be financed from the Education Ministry's budget reserves. The Finance
Ministry agreed to allow the Education Ministry to use its reserves at the beginning of
the fiscal year rather than at its end, marking a departure from standard
procedures."
'Stinking maneuver'
THE JERUSALEM POST 7/13/99: "Yisrael Ba'aliya leader Natan Sharansky yesterday
went public in accusing senior unnamed One Israel MKs of orchestrating a "stinking
maneuver" and colluding with former Yisrael Ba'aliya party whip Roman Bronfman in the
buildup to his resignation from the party. Yisrael Ba'aliya plans to hold an urgent
meeting of its faction and top members in the Knesset today and, if the session opts for
withdrawing from the coalition, its executive and central committee will meet later this
week to vote on a move to the opposition.
Sharansky's aides last night warned Prime Minister Ehud Barak that he might face nine
immigrant MKs in the opposition, when Yisrael Beiteinu and Shinui's Victor Brailovsky are
taken into account. "Don't forget 60 percent of immigrants voted for Barak in the
election," warned one aide. The Jerusalem Post reported yesterday that those close to
Sharansky are convinced Bronfman's decision was taken with the full knowledge of One
Israel's Haim Ramon, Avraham Burg, and Yossi Beilin. The three deny any involvement...
The party believes Bronfman's decision to quit was fueled by a jealousy of Sharansky
and his No. 2, Yuli Edelstein, and the offer of a ministry in a few months should he join
One Israel.Sharansky was further angered by Barak's failure to condemn Bronfman's decision
to quit and to take with him new Yisrael Ba'aliya MK Alexander (Sasha) Tsinker.
The suggestion in Yisrael Ba'aliya is that Bronfman will be offered the Immigration and
Absorption portfolio, of which Yisrael Ba'aliya has been stripped as a result of its
faction being cut from six to four MKs. Additionally, the party will not be permitted to
chair the Knesset Education Committee, nor have representation on the key Knesset Finance
Committee.
The latest theory emerging from Sharansky's colleagues about the reason for the
maneuver is that by Barak at first ensuring Sharansky would be Interior Minister, Shas's
claims to the portfolio were obviated. Now, in allowing the Yisrael Ba'aliya faction to
shrink to four, it will be easier to take away the other posts and offer them to those in
the coalition, who may otherwise have missed out on a job.
Bronfman emphatically denies the claim he left the party because he was losing the
power struggle with Sharansky and Edelstein. He maintains he departed because the party is
failing to represent its largely secular immigrant electorate, particularly by failing to
demand in its coalition agreement the right to a free vote on issues of state and
religion..."
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