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Inbound unaffected by weak baht Issue of TTG Asia Oct 03 - Oct 09 1997 By David Johnson BANGKOK - A weaker baht will not increase visitor arrivals to Thailand in the coming months despite the country being better value for money. Participants at the TTG Asia round table, Beyond Devaluation: The Future of Thai Tourism held at the Imperial Queen's Park Hotel, agreed that things would get worse before the economy turns around. Mr Luzi Matzig, general manager, Diethelm Travel said: "I do not think in the next six months we will see a big increase in arrivals." He said the main problem was that European tour operators had fixed their brochure prices on pre-devaluation exchange rates, and refused to adjust them in line with the 30 to 40 per cent currency drop. Contract rates will not increase until April next year and others not until September. Once current contracts expire, Mr Matzig said the country could have more arrivals. "Within a year we should see a major increase as Thailand will be much cheaper," Mr Matzig said. Dr Supavud Saicheua, deputy secretary-general and economic advisor to the Royal Thai Government said the next three months would be critical. "We are not at the bottom yet. I think we will be at the bottom early next year when interest rates are likely to peak." Dr Supavud said that more companies are expected to go bankrupt, and lay-offs will increase as the economy restructures and downsizes. Tourism growth will remain slow while this happens. The bleak picture will also mean arrival targets will also fall short. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said arrivals will fall below the expected 7.4 per cent increase this year. Ms Juthamas Siriwan, TAT's deputy governor, said: "We will not meet our target. "It will now be about three per cent at the most." The first six months have resulted in an increase of only 1.45 per cent, she said. Hopefully the economy will improve by the later half of next year. Dr Supavud said: "If all goes well, tourism will be the sector that will lead Thailand's economic recovery." More on Luzi Matzig