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ne year is not nearly enough time to truly judge a previous year�s draft class. Nonetheless I gave it shot at this time last year, classifying all 32 first round picks in the categories of home runs, solid hits, made contact, reaches and potential whiffs. Last year I had Willis McGahee pegged as a bad pick, especially since the Bills already had Travis Henry. Perhaps it is still a move Buffalo didn�t need to make, but Willis has returned to the field and has been solid, and should be a top ten back for years. I also had Kansas City�s Larry Johnson as a bust as he also didn�t see the field in 2003 and also had an off the field incident, but is now getting a chance and playing well in place of Priest Holmes. I also had Denver lineman George Foster as a potential whiff as he already had an injury history and spent most of �03 in effect redshirting. But now Foster starts and is a solid contributor on the Broncos line. However a couple of my �03 reaches (Jonathan Sullivan, Calvin Pace) are not turning into certifiable busts. So how is the �04 class faring??? I can tell you that this year�s class appears to be faring better than last years. There are question marks, but only three picks that I feel may not work out. So we take you from #1 to #32, and check back in a year (or two) for an update�#1 - Eli Manning (QB-SD � traded to NYG) � Myself, I thought the Manning�s were nuts to shun low-profile San Diego to high profile New York and the rugged NFC East. But let�s talk about the Chargers � who made the decision to select Manning anyways, and were able to get Philip Rivers and an extra #1 next year in return. However, after the Manning�s made their 11th hour desire not to be picked by the Chargers, the organization could had then just simply turned around and selected Robert Gallery, who in many minds was the best player available anyways. Some even thought that Kellen Winslow Jr. may not had been a bad idea in the name of publicity and ticket sales, but it turns out they already have a K2, his name is Antonio Gates. As it was though, not bad from a Charger perspective � although had they known that Drew Brees was going to blow up this year they would had opted for a re-do, but that�s hindsight. Meanwhile Manning is getting an early baptism, and like Clinton Portis � is finding life very rough in the NFC East. CHARGERS: MADE CONTACT, MANNING/POTENTIAL WHIFF
#2 � Robert Gallery (OT-AZ) � Like many of the teams that had early picks, the Raiders are a team who could use a young quarterback in the near future. That said, Gallery was a safe, solid selection. Gallery has had some problems with costly penalties this year, and the Raiders do have one of the league�s worst ground games � but that�s not much on the O-line. Look for the menacing Gallery to get over his rookie jitters and become an All-Pro perhaps as early as next year. SOLID HIT
#3 � Larry Fitzgerald (WR-AZ) � The Cards are another team that could had really used the likes of a Roethlisberger. But new coach Dennis Green went with the man he knew very well from his days as a Vikings ball boy. Fitz has had a decent rookie campaign, now the trick will be finding someone to get him the ball. BASE HIT UP THE MIDDLE
#4 � Philip Rivers (QB-NYG � traded to SD) � So the Chargers went with Eli Manning anyways, well that didn�t obligate the Giants to let San Diego off the hook, especially with Roethlisberger on the board. And I know Rivers stock rose after his Senior Bowl performance, but I don�t know if that justified him suddenly jumping ahead of Roeth on the Chargers draft board. Yes, Manning came into the draft as the supposed �sure thing�, but his development is clearly behind Roeth this point, and the Giants coughed up next years #1 to boot. Big Blue opened more eyebrows when it was revealed that second round pick Chris Snee just happened to be coach Tom Coughlin�s future son-in-law. But Snee has quickly made himself a fixture on the Giants O-line, good pick there. MANNING: POTENTIAL GIAMBI-LIKE STRIKEOUT, RIVERS: WE'LL SEE
#5 � Sean Taylor (S � WSH) � Redskins swapped positions with the Browns to ensure getting their man. On the field Taylor has been chastised for his gambling style of play, and then there were off-the-field indiscretions including being fined for missing a mandatory rookie symposium as well as a DUI charge. That said, Taylor became an immediate starter, and through 11 games is averaging over five tackles per game and also has three interceptions and a sack. SOLID HIT (if he keeps his head straight)
#6 � Kellen Winslow (TE � CLE) � Often holdouts end up biting a rookie in the rear end, and although K2�s was that long, it was not all that coincidental that Winslow�s year was already over after Game 2. The big question know is how Winslow is going to get along now with ex-Hurricane coach Butch Davis now out in Cleveland. Winslow should still have a good career, but if the Browns continue to lose and K2 starts to pout, this could be a ticking time bomb. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#7 Roy Williams (WR � DET) � The Lions did well addressing skill position needs in the first round this year. Injuries slow Williams after a hot first month, but still a solid rookie campaign. A better QB could help him immensely. SOLID HIT
#8 � DeAngelo Hall (CB � ATL) � Missed the first half of the season but wasted no time moving into the starting lineup once healthy. Hall has sick athletic skills and will be a force for years to come. EXTRA BASES IN THE ALLEY
#9 � Reggie Williams (WR � JAX) � Splitting time with Troy Edwards as a #2 receiver. With 22 catches for 195 yards Williams has been outperformed by Lee Evans and Michael Clayton, the next to receivers off the board. Williams also doesn�t have an alibi for Byron Leftwich is one of the better young QB�s around. In fact Williams is barely ahead of Ernest Wilford, the Jaguars late fourth-round selection. That said however, Reggie is still a tremendous physical specimen and should develop over the next couple of seasons. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#10 � Dunta Robinson (CB � HOU) � I called him a reach on draft day, but Dunta is one of the best picks in the first round. Through 12 games, Robinson has five interceptions and an incredible amount of tackles (65) for a corner. HOME RUN
#11 � Ben Roethlisberger (QB � PIT) � The Steelers were supposed to be toast when Tommy Maddox was lost for an extended period back in Week 2, for teams being forced to start raw rookies don�t fare well � it took Roeth about two seconds to throw that theory out the window. Sometimes the job of an NFL exec isn�t really that hard � watch the Chargers and Giants fight over Eli and Philip Rivers, and then make one of the biggest heists in recent first round history and not even have to move up to do. Pittsburgh now has their Brett Favre for the next decade. MONSTER HOME RUN (In PNC Park that puppy may be in the river)
#12 � Jonathan Vilma (LB � NYJ) � Third tremendous pick in a row, as Vilma has two interceptions and 6 � tackles per game in his first 12 starts for a 9-3 team. DT Dewayne Robertson, the #4 overall pick from last year, has also stepped it up. HOME RUN
#13 � Lee Evans (WR � BUF) � Like Willis McGahee last year, the Bills again selected a player with a bit of an injury history � but like Willis this appears to be paying off. Was worked slowly into Buffalo�s receiving rotation and has 29 catches through 12 games, averaging over 19 yards per catch. DOUBLE
#14 � Tommie Harris (DT � CHI) � Has fit in tremendously in what has quickly become a solid front unit. The first rookie to start on the D-line in Chicago in five years, Harris forced a key fumble in one game and led the team with six tackles in the Thanksgiving day game in Dallas. DOUBLE
#15 � Michael Clayton (WR � TB) � The odds weren�t great on Clayton becoming the best of a tremendous first round lot at wide receiver this year � but that�s exactly where he is, on pace for a 1,100 yard campaign. Should be a go-to man for years to come. HOME RUN
#16 � Shawn Andrews (G � PHI) � The massive Andrews started the season opener but suffered a broken leg, ending his season. Still has tremendous potential, and provided he keeps his weight in check should still prove to be nice value to the Eagles. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#17 � D.J. Williams (LB � DEN) � Many had problems trying to decide whether Jon Vilma or D.J. Williams would prove to be better coming out of the Miami program. The truth is they�re both damn good. Williams had 11 tackles in a recent game against the Chargers and has 77 in 12 games. Some already consider D.J the best player on Denver�s front seven. HOME RUN
#18 � Will Smith (DE � NO) � The Saints are a crap organization and screwed up their early 2003 selections, but didn�t come away too bad with Smith, although they would had loved to see D.J. Williams fall to them. Smith has three sacks in a recent four game stretch. SOLID HIT
#19 � Vernon Carey (G � MIA) � Hard to notice in the Dolphins train wreck of a season, but Carey currently sits second on the depth chart, he gets a mulligan for this season. 23 teams were interested in Carey at the combines, he should work out over time. The Phins will really come under scrutiny this off-season, when they are expected to draft in the top five and will be major players in the free agent market. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#20 � Kenechi Udeze (DE � MN) � The latest in the Vikings efforts to shore up their defensive unit. Udeze had about enough of Minnesota�s winter by late September, he should be thankful for global warming � by now he might be dressed like Ron Artest. Has had a nice rookie season starting and has four sacks in 12 games. SOLID HIT
#21 � Vince Wilfork (DT � NE) - The Patriots hit the jackpot yet again, as Wilfork is getting consideration for defensive rookie of the year with dominant play at times. Outside of K2�s injury, there were really no Hurricanes that disappointed in Round 1. HOME RUN
#22 � J.P. Losman (QB � BUF) � Like Willis McGahee, this is a pick for the future. There was much talk of JPL starting late this year, but that�s out the window for now since the Bills are contending for a playoff spot and Losman is coming off a broken leg. But the team liked what they saw out of JPL in training camp, and could still be the Bills starter, perhaps as early as next year. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#23 � Marcus Tubbs (DT � SEA) � Took longer to developed this year than the Seahawk brass would had like, but finally started getting some starts late in the year but then fell to a high ankle sprain. The team would like to see Tubbs get into better shape and show more desire, but potential is still there. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#24 � Steven Jackson (RB � STL) � It was thought that S-Jax would wind up in Dallas, but the Cowboys traded down. However it looks like Jackson will fit well in St. Louis, has averaged nearly five yards a carry this year, and will soon pick up the torch from Marshall Faulk if he hasn�t done so already. You�ll want Jackson on your fantasy team in 2005. HOME RUN
#25 � Ahmad Carroll (CB � GB) � He and Joey Thomas have had to learn by fire this year and have had their good and bad moments. They have been torched by the likes of Philadelphia and Indianapolis and the two also dropped the gloves after a film session early in the year. But the duo has also shown progress and should be fine down the road. SOLID HIT
#26 � Chris Perry (RB � CIN) � Has not seen the field this year due in large part to a deep abdominal strain, while Rudi Johnson has gotten virtually all the carries. However Perry could find himself very much in the picture next year with Rudi�s impending free agency. Latest word was that there hasn�t been much progress in negotiations between Rudi and the team. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#27 � Jason Babin (OLB � HOU) � The Texans struck gold on both first round picks this year. Babin was the first first-round pick to sign this year and made an immediate impact with a forced fumble in his first pre-season game. Also had seven tackles and two TFL�s in his regular season debut. Babin has a strong pass rush and runs sideline to sideline. DOUBLE
#28 � Chris Gamble (CB � CAR) � At one point thought to be a top-ten overall pick, Gamble has played very much that way in 2004. Gamble fought through a sprained knee, but has 58 tackles and three INT�s through 12 games for the resurgent kitties. DOUBLE HIGH OFF THE WALL
#29 � Michael Jenkins (WR � ATL) � After a great off-season that elevated his draft status, Jenkins was expected to become a much-needed weapon for QB Michael Vick, however Jenkins� contribution has been about nill, with only two catches in eight games in which he suited up. Still the thought is the Jenkins will be a frequent contributor by next season. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
#30 � Kevin Jones (RB � DET) � Struggled early on but has exploded late with 476 yards and a 6.3 average in a recent four game stretch. It appears that the Lions six year search for Barry Sanders replacement is finally over. HOME RUN
#31 � Rashaun Woods (WR � SF) � Was said to have the best hands of this draft class, but remains buried deep on the 49ers depth chart, unable to even surpass the likes of Arnaz Battle. It�s hard to evaluate players in this awful lineup, but Woods needs to step up in 2005. POTENTIAL WHIFF
#32 � Ben Watson (TE � NE) � Another example on what happens to holdouts. Missed three weeks and was soon lost for the season with a bum knee. Pats can afford to develop Watson slowly with Daniel Graham around. CHECK BACK NEXT YEARKANSAS CITY � Selected DT Junior Siavii 36th overall, and hasn�t made much of an impact on an awful defensive unit. . Siavii was considered a major reach being selected this high and is already 25 years old. POTENTIAL WHIFF
DALLAS � Selected RB Julius Jones 43rd overall. I said it back in April, I would of questioned passing up on Steven Jackson but ultimately Bill Parcells knows exactly what he�s been doing. Jones has been a major force rushing for nearly 350 yards and five TD�s in a two game stretch v. Chicago and Seattle. By far the best pick of the second round. LONG HOME RUN
INDIANAPOLIS � Selected S Bob Sanders 44th overall. Once again holdout equals injury. However the Colts liked what they did see out of the undersized but hard-hitting safety. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR
BALTIMORE � Selected DT Dwan Edwards 51st overall. The Oregon St. product has seen scant action and is considered more of a project. Wide receiver remains by far the Ravens biggest need. CHECK BACK NEXT YEAR