2004 KACSPORTS FANTASY RUNNING BACK PREVIEW
BE SURE TO PICK THE TOP BACKS EARLY...
How important has the running back position become in fantasy football?? So much so that the first nine-ten picks in most expert mock drafts come from the backfield, along with an astounding 18-20 picks out of the first two rounds in twelve-team leagues. And I remember the days when I won a fantasy league drafting wide receivers the first three rounds, gambling with speculative picks in the later rounds, but that was beginners luck.
With that in mind, you almost need to take backs with the first two picks, there will be plenty of quarterbacks and receivers available after that...
- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
� On the surface, it doesn�t make a lot of sense to rank the top back on what is projected to be the worst team in football. But Tomlinson is entire the whole show for the Charger offense, rushing for 1,645 yards while also catching 100 passes, albeit for only a 7.45 avg. The AFC West run defenses are not strong, and also has non-divisional games with the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Cleveland. 2,000 rush yards, 2,600 total yards, and 20 TD�s are realistic possibilities.
Priest Holmes (KC) � No one in league history has crossed the stripe like Holmes the past two seasons, with an astounding 51 scores in his last 30 games. But Holmes turns 31 this year, traditionally the age where even the best backs hit the wall. We may have seen the first phase of his decline last year as Holmes dropped from 115 to 89 rushing yards per game, but was still good for 1420 rushing yards and over 2,100 total yards. However there are some ominous signs early in training camp, with Holmes announcing that his hip is at only 80 percent, reminding us that there is risk and the end can come at anytime. But until there is more proof you have to keep Holmes at or near the top.
Clinton Portis (WSH) � Upon returning to the Washington Redskins, Coach Joe Gibbs looked at his backfield situation and saw the equivalent of a fleet of Busch Series Cars. So in an almost unheard of player-for-player superstar blockbuster, Gibbs went out and got his next Tony Stewart to drive the offense, trading CB Champ Bailey for Portis, who led the league with a 122 yard average per game, and would most likely had gone over 2,000 yards had he not missed three games to injury. The bad news is Portis loses divisional games v. the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders (126 carries for 796 yards/6.3 average in six games) for the likes of the Cowboys, and what should be improved run defenses with the Giants and Eagles. Out of the division, Portis also faces Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Coach Gibbs has also brought old hand Joe Bugel to man the offensive line, so Clint will be in great hands for the foreseeable future. Portis still merits serious consideration as #1 overall, but drops ever so slightly on this board.
Ahman Green (GB) � Perhaps the most explosive back of all, Green demolished the single-season record book of the NFL�s most storied franchise rushing for 1,883 yards (5.3 avg) and 20 touchdowns in 2003. At age 27 Green is at the peak of his career, I would expect an ever so slight dropoff only because bruising Najeh Davenport provides a great change of pace. Green should especially make hay with his NFC North opponents.
Shaun Alexander (SEA) � When it comes to touchdowns, SA is money with 50 TD�s in his last three seasons plus two more scores in the Seahawks playoff loss in Green Bay. Although SA has averaged over 1,300 yards rushing, his averages (4.3/4.0/4.4) are not the best.
Deuce McAllister (NO) � Like Alexander, Deuce has the advantage of being in the run-friendly NFC West. Deuce racked up 1,641 rush yards (4.7 avg) along with 2,155 total yards last year, but was a disappointment where it came to scoring dropping from 16 to eight TD�s. Split the difference and expect 12-14 TD�s along with 2,000 total yards.
Kevan Barlow (SF) � Like Tomlinson, Barlow figures to be a great running back on a bad team. But like LT the Niners passing game figures to be so anemic that there is really no other option than to feed the rock to Barlow. San Fran finally kicked Garrison Hearst to the curb late last year, and KB wound up going over the 1,000 yard mark, averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry.
Edgerrin James (IND) � One back who has been mentioned in regards with the Dolphins - both James and coach Tony Dungy have shot down the rumors, with Dungy adding that it isn't his job to make the Dolphins happy. James is in the last year of his contract, so signing on with his hometown team in 2005 is a possibility. Despite missing three games with a broken bone in his back, Edge still averaged 97 rush yards per game while scoring 11 times, close to his pre-ACL levels. Edges faces little competition in the Indy backfield so he should still be very effective when Peyton Manning isn�t throwing like crazy.
Jamal Lewis (BAL) � This years Kobe Bryant risk special, although unlike the NBA star his trial on federal drug charges dating back to 2000 (I stress the word Federal) is on the fast track, with an August trial date scheduled (Feds don�t conveniently schedule their trial around defendants seasons). The proceedings are expected to last two weeks. Lewis vows his name will be cleared, but the possibilities range from complete acquittal (although even then he could subject to a 4-game suspension) to being thrown behind bars on the eve of the season opener. On the field Lewis had the third highest single-season total in league history, rushing for 2,066 yards. Throw out the even 500 Lewis racked up on the Cleveland Browns, and Lewis was still good for 112 yards per game. If not for the legal situation Lewis merits a top-five selection, but if your draft date comes before Lewis� court date, you might be inclined to drop him even lower on this list, or at the very least get backup Musa Smith as a handcuff (pun).
Fred Taylor (JAX) � Has now stayed healthy for two straight years, and racked up 1,572 rushing yards in 2003, which was nothing compared to the 3,300 rushing yards he�s averaged playing the last ten seasons of Madden. Taylor�s value gets diminished in fantasy leagues as he�s pulled near the goal line (only 17 TD�s the last two years). Knock him up a notch or two higher if yardage is heavily part of your league�s equation.
Domanick Davis (HOU) � This year�s biggest sleeper, the fourth round draft choice became the Texans featured back for the final 10 games of 2003, averaging 86 yards per game with eight scores. Those numbers are a little more impressive considering that QB David Carr was playing hurt down the stretch. 1,200-1,400 rushing yards and a dozen scores are a good possibility as the Texans become a contender this year.
Corey Dillon (NE) � Unceremonious divorce from Cincinnati last year, as getting to the stadium in one piece even became a challenge, but this is also a back who racked up 1,100+ rushing yards for six straight years on some very bad Bengal teams. Dillon turns 30 this year, but if having the best football team on the planet isn�t motivation enough nothing will. Expect a big bounce-back season.
Stephen Davis (CAR) � Had unquestionably his best season as a pro in his first year as a Panther, rushing for 1,444 yards in just 14 games (4.5 avg) along with eight TD�s. Davis added 315 yards for a 4.9 avg in Carolina�s four-game Super Bowl run. I knock him down a notch this year since backup DeShaun Foster is just as capable and will spell the 30-year old Davis on occasion this year. Although there may be no upside, Davis will continue to have one of football�s best lines in front of him.
Marshall Faulk (STL) � When healthy (and that�s a bid if), Faulk is still a great producer, scoring 11 TD�s in as many games and averaging 100 total yards per game last year. But Faulk is now 31, and Stephen Jackson was drafted in the first round and will start spelling Faulk in various situations this year. Faulk�s days as a franchise fantasy back are over, but will serve a unique role as a hybrid running back/receiver who will even line up out wide on occasion this year.
Travis Henry (BUF) � A bonifide top-ten fantasy back over the past two years averaging a solid 90 yards per game while scoring 25 times. However Henry was another curious off-season case, electing to miss �voluntary� practices while working out at home. And then there is Willis McGahee, who must be selected as a handcuff if you plan on drafting Henry.
Rudi Johnson (CIN) � Three 150+ yard games and a 4.5 average per game made Rudi one of the bigger fantasy surprises of the year as Corey Dillon was shown the door. Be warned however, the element of surprise is gone and there is limited upside to Rudi�s game.
Tiki Barber (NYG) � Coming off a pair of 1,200 plus yard rushing seasons, but touchdowns dropped from 11 to all of three. I don�t expect the TD total to improve much this year, as new coach Tom Coughlin also has a history of employing goal-line backs.
Curtis Martin (NYJ) � Everyone continues to wait for LaMont Jordan to start taking at least some of the load of CuMart, but Martin actually got stronger as the 2003 season rolled on, rushing for 1,100 yards in his final 12 contests. The downside was that Martin was only good for two scores the entire season. Even at age 31, expect one more productive season out of the reliable veteran.
T.J. Duckett (ATL) � Had a solid finish to the season after Warrick Dunn went down, rushing for 355 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately Duckett is battling foot problems as of this writing, which may linger for the entire season.
Michael Bennett (MN) � Move him up a few spots higher if you like home-run hitters, as Bennett has averaged over five yards per carry the past two seasons. But don�t expect Bennett to be a workhorse, or a goal-line back as Mewelde Moore was drafted this year, and will join a fleet of situational backs including Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith. Bennett averaged 14 carries per game in the final five games of �03, so look for somewhere in the 15-20 carry range.Bennett has shed weight in the off-season in an effort to regain his World Class speed.
Thomas Jones (CHI) � Free agent acquisition rushed for 370 yards as the Buccaneer�s featured back in the final four games of last year, which gives you an idea on what the one-time #7 overall pick is capable of. Should be able to start over Anthony Thomas.
Marcel Shipp (AZ) � Write it down, new coach Dennis Green has Shipp down for 1,000 yards and seven scores, which would be seven more scores than Shipp had in 2003, although he did rush for 830 yards after the braintrust finally figured out that Emmitt Smith should not be starting over himl. Shipp was investigated in regards to an alleged domestic incident during the off-season (which Cardinal running back hasn�t made the blotter???) but nothing ever became of it.
Duce Staley (PIT) � Comes to the Steelers after an acrimonious departure from Philly. Although he only got 96 carries last year, Staley rushed at a 4.8 clip and scored seven times.
Travis Minor (MIA) � Announced as the starter with the retirement of Ricky Williams, although rumors of trades will continue until he proves himself. Although he has only 144 career carries, Minor does have a nice 4.5 career average. Of greater concern is a suspect Dolphin O-line, but Minor has looked good breaking a number of long runs early in camp. If you like what you see in the pre-season, go ahead and knock him up a few more notches.
Charlie Garner (TB) � Reunited with coach Jon Gruden, Garner comes into this year as one of the bigger question marks due to off-season knee surgery. Garner accounted for 1,900 combined yards and 11 scores as recently as 2002, but don�t count on nearly that much this year with the likes of Mike Alstott and Jamel White around. Do not worry about Michael Pittman, who faces a lengthy suspension after his latest brush with the law.
Kevin Jones (DET) � Although he lasted into Round 2 (some thought the Lions might draft him in Round 1), the Virginia Tech rookie should be able to leapfrog past Artose Pinner and Shawn Bryson in training camp. Along with receivers Charles Rogers and Roy Williams, Jones will contribute to an offense who should improve immensely.
Brian Westbrook (PHI) � Eagles chances of winning the NFC went out the window when Westbrook tore his biceps in the regular-season finale. If 100 percent, he should start over Correll Buckhalter who will see some action as well. Departure of Duce Staley could give Westbrook more carries, but an Eddie George acquisition could turn the Eagles backfield back into a three-headed monster.
Julius Jones (DAL) � The brother of Thomas Jones became the Cowboys second round selection after Bill Parcells passed up on Stephen Jackson in Round 1. Jones is already listed #1 ahead of Aveion Cason on the teams depth chart.
Tatum Bell (DEN) � Given the track record of anyone who has been a featured back in the Broncos offense under Mike Shanahan, the second round pick has a chance to be the best rookie back of 2003. If all goes well, Bell should start seeing action in front of veteran Garrison Hearst and Quentin Griffen by Week 5. Beware though that Bell wasn�t exclusively a featured back at Oklahoma State and he also has a history of fumbling.
Willis McGahee (BUF) � Will obviously be one of the bigger training camp stories of 2004. McGahee has performed without a knee brace without any apparent setbacks during the off-season. The Bills paid dearly to acquire Willis in the 2003 draft, so he will definitely get on the field.
Onterrio Smith (MN) �If you followed the 2003 draft you are well aware of the baggage Smith carries, but also of his remarkable upside. Makes a serious case for 2004 playing time after a pair of near-150 yard rushing outings in Weeks 15-16, along with a 5.4 rushing average in 107 carries.
Eddie George (FA) � The handwriting is on the wall after nearly becoming a June 1 casualty. Eddie scored 14 touchdowns as recently as 2002, but is coming off rushing averages of 3.0, 3.4, and 3.3. His days of 20+ carries per game are over, but will be a valuable back in short yardage and goal-line situations. George's hometown of Philadelphia appears to be the frontrunner for acquiring his services.
Tyrone Wheatley (OAK) � Managed to rush for 678 yards and a 4.3 average in the Raiders train wreck of a season. Look for Wheatley to get the bulk of the carries along with Justin Fargas behind a vastly improved O-line and to get the coveted goal-line carries.
William Green (CLE) � Will battle Lee Suggs for the starting running back spot after a series of bizarre incidents led to an indefinite suspension last year. Word is Green has worked with the team all off-season and is in great shape, but you still have to beware of a lengthy blotter record dating back to his Boston College days.
DeShaun Foster (CAR) � Talk out of Carolina is that Foster could get a 50/50 split in carries along with Stephen Davis. 40/60 or 30/70 is more realistic if Davis is healthy, with the current starter getting the goal-line carris. Foster is a candidate to get passes out of the backfield, but his 3.8 rushing average is not overly impressive.
Justin Fargas (OAK) � They say he can�t be an every-down back, but I came away impressed after a pre-season game last year where Fargas got the rock 20+ times to the tune of over 100 yards. Fargas is as fast as any running back and is bigger than you would think (6�1 220). Staying healthy is a concerned, a torn MCL ended his rookie season and also sustained a broken leg during his Michigan days that was so bad that amputation was considered at one point (Note: Injury wouldn�t had happened had he attended Ohio St. or Wisconsin). In limited action Fargas averaged over five yards a carry including a 16-62 performance v. the Jets. A true big play threat.
Stephen Jackson (STL) � Had the Cowboys drafted him, he would be a top-20 at the position this year. As it is, things won�t be bad in the long run as Jackson gets to learn from a future HOF�er and when he does play he will be displaying his speed on the last of the true Astro-Turf surfaces. Jackson compares favorably to Deuce McAllister/Ricky Williams and will eventually be a top-ten back. Rank him a little higher in dynasty leagues.
Musa Smith (BAL) � The one-time Georgia Bulldog is graded well across the board, along with ideal size. Doesn�t have top speed, but does well in the open field and is also capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. Chester Taylor is also a possibility, but the Ravens running back coach wants Musa to be ready for a 300-carry season if need be.
Lee Suggs (CLE) � If you believer the press clippings that come out of the Virginia Tech athletic department, Suggs runs a 3.9 and is destined to become the greatest back in NFL history. After torching the Bengals for 186 yards and a pair of scores in the Browns season finale, Suggs comes into training camp with a leg up on William Green and James Jackson, but both Green and Jackson are Butch Davis favorites, so Suggs is going to have to prove himself to be significantly better to be the starter.
Correll Buckhalter (PHI) � Had a pair of impressive 100+ yard games, and wound up with an impressive nine touchdowns. If healthy, Bryant Westbrook will get the ball between the 20�s but Buck will get the crucial goal-line carries.
Garrison Hearst (DEN) � Still a very capable running back, rushing for 768 yards and a 4.3 average last year. Hearst figures to open the season as the NFL�s oldest starting running back along with Quentin Griffin until rookie Tatum Bell is ready.
LaMont Jordan (NYJ) � Now entering his fourth year, Jordan understandably wants a bigger piece in the Jet offense. Carries actually went down from 84 to 46 last year, but I figure for him to get 100 carries this year. The squatty (5�10� 230) Jordan has an impressive 4.7 average along with nine TD�s in 169 career carries.
Chris Brown (TN) � Figures to get the ball more than the 56 carries he received last year, but Eddie George will continue to get the goal-line carries. Brown has to step it up big time to convince the Titans not to look at an impressive running back crop coming in the 2005 draft.
Najeh Davenport (GB) � Another back from Miami with dreadlocks who instantly became the subject of trade rumors the second Ricky ran out of town. But as is the case with Edgerrin James, that would have to wait until at least this coming off-season, when Davenport could potentially become an FA. Davenport has done well as a change-of-pace to Ahman Green averaging an impressive 5.2 in 116 carries over two years. Although considered a fullback type, Najeh is more than capable of driving the Green Bay offense should Ahman Green go down. At 245 pounds, Davenport even saw duty as a kick returner last year.
Anthony Thomas (CHI) � Despite returning to 2001 levels (1024 yards in just 13 games, 4.2 per carry), it was not good enough to keep the new staff from acquiring competition in the form of Thomas Jones. If the A-Train were to start over TJ, then he ranks in the 20-25 area.
Warrick Dunn (ATL) � Was headed for his best season as a pro, rushing for 672 yards for a 5.4 average before a foot injury ended his season. With T.J. Duckett battling his own foot problem, Dunn could find his way back on the filed this year.
Kevin Faulk (NE) � Had his most productive season in 2003, accounting for 1,078 total yards including 178 carries and 48 receptions, but did not score in the regular season or playoffs. With Corey Dillon on board Faulk settles back into the role of a third down back.
LaBrandon Toefield (JAX) � We always know that the Jaguars #2 back will get those coveted goal-line carries, and Toefield is bound to get a heavier workload than the 52 carries he saw in his rookie year. But the Jags may have gotten a goal-line back late in Round 2 with Florida St. bruiser Greg Jones.
Mike Alstott (TB) � Got at least 131 carries and scored at least five times for six straight seasons from 1997 � 2002, but his career is at a crossroads coming back from season ending surgery. Alstott�s 2003 season ended after all of 27 carries.
Chris Perry (CIN) � Bruising Michigan back drafted in the second round, you know he can carry the load based on his 45-carry game at Michigan St. last year. Perry will sit behind Rudi Johnson this year with a possibility of becoming a featured back 2-3 years down the road.
Ron Dayne (NYG) � Hit rock bottom after winding up deep in coach Jim Fassel�s doghouse in 2003, not seeing a single carry. Reportedly Dayne has been getting into the best shape of his career, with Tom Coughlin possible giving Dayne a chance to be a #2 goal-line back this year.
Moe Williams (MN) � Proved himself to be more than capable of being an NFL starting caliber back, rushing for eight TD�s and 745 yards to the tune of 4.3 yards per carry. As of right now Moe is the best third-string back in the league, which doesn�t help much for fantasy purposes.
Tony Hollings (HOU) � Don�t take too much stock to his one flash of extensive work, where he rushed 18 times for only 19 yards v. Jacksonville. Third-string rookie Dave Ragone was at quarterback that day, which allowed the defense to take extra liberties against the ground game.
Sammy Morris (MIA) � One time Buffalo Bill was mentioned as a possible fullback in Miami this year, but whatshisname's departure changes that, moving Morris to #2 on the depth chart. Early indications are Morris might be utilized as a goal-line back in a possible commitee situation.
Larry Johnson (KC) � Record-breaking Penn St. runner had a hard indoctrination into the pros last year, and unfortunately made the most noise off the field. Did rush for 85 yards on 20 carries, and has been praised by coach Dick Vermeil for his off-season work.
Dominic Rhodes (IND) � Rushed for over 1,100 yards and nine scores in place of Edgerrin James a few years back.
Amos Zereoue (OAK) � Last year�s super-sleeper is now an afterthought in Oakland where he finds himself behind both Wheatly and Fargas on the Raiders depth chart.
Aveion Cason (DAL) � Is coming off ACL surgery, but Erik Bickerstaff has already sustained a season-ending injury which should place Cason at #2 on the depth chart behind Julius Jones.
Chester Taylor (BAL) � Averaged nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season and also gets some work catching out of the backfield. Definitely keep in mind if Jamal Lewis is unavailable.
Emmitt Smith (AZ) � A decade ago, #22 was at the top of this list. In the best case scenario, Emmitt would get a few goal-line carries this year. Coach Dennis Green still lists Emmitt as the starter, but a better possibility is that Emmitt hangs it up before the start of the regular season.
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