2004 KACSPORTS FANTASY WIDE RECEIVER PREVIEW
MOSS'S FOOT KNOCKS HIM FROM THE TOP
This year, none of the top wide receivers come with some risk. Randy Moss is #1 on most boards, but there is a lingering injury concern. Marvin Harrison's stats are down from last year, Torry Holt and Chad Johnson have moved near the top, but questions remain. And then there's moody Terrell Owens, how will he fit in his new digs.
Quarterback and Running back may provide the most glamour, but don't be surprised if it's the receivers that spell the difference between victory and defeat.
- Torry Holt (STL)
� Holt fulfilled his potential in 2003, catching an eye-popping 117 passes for nearly 1700 yards. Holt also became a true end-zone threat, scoring a career high 12 TD�s. The only downside for Holt is that should Marc Bulger go down, the Rams would be down to ancient Chris Chandler under center. But if the offense is at full strength there should no reason Holt should not have another spectacular season.
Randy Moss (MN) � In perhaps his best season yet, moss caught 111 passes for 1632 yards and 17 TD�s, setting or tying career highs in all three categories, while bumping up his yards per catch from 12.7 to 14.7. Randy is #1 on most cheat sheets but I knocked him down a peg since he figures to continue to be bothered by plantar fasciitis in his foot, which developed late last season.
Terrell Owens (PHI) � TO got his wish, now it is put up or shut up time. I imagine things will go well at least for the first year, and Owens should have a decent rapport with Donovan McNabb. Even including last years tumultuous season, TO has averaged over 1,300 yards receiving the past four years while averaging 13 TD�s per.
Chad Johnson (CIN) � Then there�s this guy, who has blossomed into being perhaps the league�s most dangerous receiver for the past year and a half, averaging 15+ yards per catch and amassing 1,355 yards and 10 scores last year. There could be a slight dropoff with Carson Palmer at QB, but I imagine they would go back to Jon Kitna if things got too bad. The biggest concern, as is the case with Terrell Owens, is Johnson pissing off the head coach too much and landing in the doghouse.
Marvin Harrsion (IND) � After a ridiculous 2002 which saw Marvin catch an X-Box like 143 passes, Marvin returned to much more mortal numbers last year, catching 94 for 1272 yards and 10 scores while seeing his yards per catch increase from 12.0 to 13.5. At age 32, Harrison may fall slightly from the top tier of receivers this year.
Anquan Boldin (AZ) � Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson were the top selections and got all the pre-season rookie hype last year, but Boldin exploded onto the scene with the best debut game in NFL history (10 catches, 217 yards, 2 TD�s) and did not look back and set an NFL rookie record with 101 catches for 1377 yards and eight scores. With Larry Fitzgerald on board, Boldin moves to split end, so you may see less yards per catch.
Hines Ward (PIT) � Only good for 11-12 yards per catch, but Ward has averaged 100 catches for three years running now and is coming off years of 12 and 10 TD�s. As an extra bonus, the versatile Ward is used often on reverses, although the opposition seemed to plan more for it last year, as Hines dropped from 12/142 to 11/61.
Santana Moss (NYJ) � Once Chad Pennington got back under center, Moss fulfilled his promise as a big-play threat, scoring in seven games in a row while being involved in six plays for 30+ yards. If you�re worried about Santana being too small (5�10� 185), keep in mind that Steve Smith is about the same size. With Pennington starting from day one and Justin McCareins coming on board, look for Moss to improve on his 1105 receiving yards even more.
Steve Smith (CAR) � After catching 88 passes for 1,110 yards in the regular year, Smith really turned it up in the playoffs with games of 135 and 163 yards. Has not had a great TD year as of yet, his seven last year was a career high although he added three more in the Panthers four playoff games. You also get some bonus reverses and Smith still returns punts, so you could get a coveted special teams score along the way. Smith comes to training camp armed with a new contract with a signing bonus anywhere from $9-$11 million dollars, depending on who you believe.
Joe Horn (NO) � Has had four fantastic years in a row since arriving in New Orleans, scoring 34 touchdowns in that span including a career high 10 in just 15 games last year. Of course four of those came in the infamous cell phone game against the remnants of a Giants secondary. Horn battled injuries throughout the year which was the main cause of his yards per catch dropping from 14.9 to 12.5. Speedy Donte Stallworth may finally be ready to take some of the load off, but expect one more 1,000 yard season.
Laveranues Coles (WSH) � Despite problems literally everywhere around him, Coles remained the one reliable cog in the Redskin attack last year, catching 82 passes for 1204 yards � just off his numbers with the Jets in 2002. I drop Coles down a couple spots this year as I expect the Skins to be more run heavy.
Darrell Jackson (SEA) � Good option if you�re looking for the big plays, D-Jax is usually good for a 15+ yard average. Jackson catches some criticisms for his occasional dropsies, but receiving mate Koren Robinson is more shaky. 10 of his career TD�s have come from at least 34 yards out.
Derrick Mason (TN) � Had his best season yet, catching 95 passes for 1,303 yards. A consistent performer on a weekly basis, Mason even caught seven passes for 90 yards against the elements and an excellent New England secondary in the Divisional Playoff. Justin McCareins is gone, but look for Tyrone Calico to keep the defenses honest.
Andre Johnson (HOU) � Except for a couple of games when QB David Carr wasn�t around, Johnson�s rookie season was a success, catching 66 passes for just under a thousand yards. His measurables are compared favorably to Terrell Owens, so look for AJ to be a top-five receiver by next year. But I just ask one favor out of coach Dom Capers, don�t send Johnson running backwards on any intentional safety plays (that was a killer).
Koren Robinson (SEA) � On paper the better of the two Seahawk receivers, but regressed markedly in 2003, dropping from 140 to 896 yards receivings. He is also not a favorite of coach Mike Holmgren, which is not a good thing (ask Bill Schroeder). Koren has the tools to be a top-flight receiver, he was #3 in yardage over the second half of 2003.
Eric Moulds (BUF) � Dropped from 100/1292/10 TD�s in 2002 to 64/780/and all of one score last year. Moulds was supposedly in the best shape of his career during mini-camps and the addition of QB coach Sam Wyche may also be a help. The key is how much Drew Bledsoe rebounds this year, and I don�t think it�s going to be much.
Amani Toomer (NYG) � As recently as 2002, Toomer was a top-five receiver. Remember Week 16 in Indianapolis that year?? Toomer finished that year with 1,343 yards and a 16.4 average. Toomer averaged 16.8 last year, but only caught 63 passes with the Bachelor under center by the end of the year. Things don�t figure to get too much better with fragile Kurt Warner and rookie Eli Manning at QB this year.
Rod Smith (DEN) � One major magazine goes as far as ranking Smith #4 at the position this year, while two others rank him #22 and #25 respectively. The thought is that without Clinton Portis, Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey around, that Smith will again become the focal point of the offense. Maybe, but Smith isn�t too far away from retirement himself. After catching 100 passes for 1,602 yards in 2000, Smith has averaged less than 12 yards per catch the past three years.
Plexico Burress (PIT) � One of 2003�s biggest busts, dropping from 78 catches for 1,325 yards (17.0) in 2002 to 60/860/14.3 last year. There will be issues again at QB for the Steelers, so look for 1,100 yards to be the top-end projection.
Peerless Price (ATL) � Another one whose stats fell drastically last year, from 94/1252/9 in his last year in Buffalo to 64/938 last year. Price gets a mulligan with the Falcons QB situation a mess last year, if he becomes Vick�s go to guy he should be good for 1,100 yards and some long scores.
Javon Walker (GB) � This is merely an upside pick. J-Walk only has 64 catches in his first two years. Robert Ferguson and Donald Driver are also around. The Packers are also going to run a lot this year. But Walker averaged over 17 yards per catch last year and scored seven times in his last nine regular season games. Walker is a good gamble based on the big play potential.
Chris Chambers (MIA) � The time to score came often to Chambers last season, as he crossed the stripe 11 times, including thrice in the first half of an unexpectedly high-scoring Thanksgiving game in Dallas. Also caught nine passes for 153 yards in the season finale. Still looking for his first 1,000 yard season in Year 4, but hopefully new arrival David Boston will take some of the pressure off Chambers.
Jerry Porter (OAK) � The dreaded sports hernia derailed Porter early on, and by the time he returned to the lineup the Raiders were down to Rick Mirer at quarterback, so 2003 was a true mulligan. With both Jerry Rice and Tim Brown halfway out the door, there is no reason why Porter shouldn�t be the #1 guy this year. Stock improves a little more when (not if) Kerry Collins becomes the starting quarterback.
Isaac Bruce (STL) � Not quite the deep threat he once was, Bruce still just missed the 1,000 yard mark despite missing one game last year. We also like Bruce for about a half-dozen.
Ashley Lelie (DEN) � Jake Plummer cancelled his wedding, but since he was in Hawaii he decided to work out with Lelie during the off-season. Many were disappointed that Lelie didn't bust out last year, but remember it was only Ashley's second year. With Ed McCaffrey retired and Rod Smith coming along in his pension plan look for Lelie to breakout this year.
Donte Stallworth (NO) � Another pick with tremendous upside this year. I compare Stallworth with Isaac Bruce during his early years, when he seemed to be dogged annually with hamstring problems. Joe Horn will still be the Saints #1, but Stallworth is as fast as anyone in pro football and a threat to score from anywhere on the lot.
Jimmy Smith (JAX) � Proved that he still had it last year, catching 54 passes for 805 yards and four scores in just 12 games. Has been written off many times for various reasons, but reportedly is now in the best shape of his career at age 35.
Reggie Williams (JAX) � It is a crowded rookie receiver field this year, potentially a half-dozen first round picks making an immediate impact. Reggie was not ranked or drafted the highest, but he is going to have the best immediate opportunity working along with aging Jimmy Smith. Beware though that Williams does not have top speed and was slowed with a hamstring during mini-camp.
Charles Rogers (DET) � Broke in with a bang with two quick scores in his NFL debut before the Cards Anquan Boldin stole the show. Rogers ended up only catching 22 passes for 243 yards before suffering a season-ending collarbone injury in practice. Now rookie Roy Williams comes on board, so don�t look for much of an improvement in yards per catch.
Larry Fitzgerald (AZ) � You are probably familiar with Fitzgerald�s resume already. Larry worked as a ball boy during Viking camps under Dennis Green during his high school years. Thus Fitzgerald comes into the NFL game mature beyond his 21 years. Although his speed is somewhat suspect, Fitzgerald has Cris Carter-like hands.
Roy Williams (DET) � If you like going by the workout numbers, Roy blows away Reggie Williams and Fitzgerald, as well as new teammate Charles Rogers (#2 overall pick last year). But Williams may be relegated to three-receiver sets at the outset behind Rogers and FA acquisition Tai Streets. Roy will eventually be a great end zone target and will rack up big-time yards after the catch.
Keenan McCarell (TB) � With Keyshawn Johnson being shown the door, McCardell went on to have one of the best seasons of his career, catching 84 balls for nearly 1,200 yards and eight scores. Now for the bad news, Keenan has been skipping the off-season workouts while trying to get a new contract. If the situation is resolved quickly raise McCardell about a half-dozen spots.
David Boston (MIA) � Boston is only three years removed from a 1,600 yard season, but has worn out his welcome in two organizations since due partly to his well documented obsession with bulking up at the expense of his speed. It didn�t take long for Boston to get hurt yet again in mini-camp, and Boston is still spending a lot of time in the weight room according to reports. If he looks good in pre-season he may still be worth rolling the dice.
Keyshawn Johnson (DAL) � After his unceremonious departure from Tampa, �Me-Shawn� resurfaces with coach Bill Parcells. Although he doesn�t score much, Johnson was still good for 60 yards per game last year. Don�t look for much upside, but Keyshawn should still be a good #3 receiver for a fantasy team.
Deion Branch (NE) � Improved from 43/489/11.4 as a rookie to 57/803/14.1 last year, and starred in the Patriots Super Bowl victory, catching 10 passes for 143 yards. Branch�s upside is somewhat limited since offensive coordinator Charlie Weis likes to have Tom Brady spread the ball around to as many people as humanly possible.
Reggie Wayne (IND) � If you believe Marvin Harrison is truly on the backside of his career, and if you believe in players peaking in their fourth year, Stately Wayne Manor may be for you � Reggie�s production has increased from 27 to 49 to 68 catches, and Wayne also found the end zone seven times last year.
Justin McCareins (NYJ) � Parlayed a 47 catch, 813 yard, 7 TD season into a free agent contract with the Jets. I don�t see McCareins coming close to his 17.3 average this year as Santana Moss is the big play guy in Gotham.
Marty Booker (CHI) � After a pair of 100-catch seasons, Booker fell off drastically only averaging 4 catches per game last year. With rookie Rex Grossman under center there may not be much of a rebound. Booker has never had a high yards per catch.
Peter Warrick (CIN) � Will never live up to the billing that made him the #4 overall pick in the draft a few years back. Warrick is not a game-breaker, only averaging 10.6 yards per catch in his career. P-Dub is used often on reverses however, rushing 18 times for 157 yards last year.
Quincy Morgan (CLE) � Somebody has to be the Browns leading receiver, and Morgan is the best bet for that role. Was one of fantasy baseball�s biggest busts last year, but 964 yards (17.2 avg) and seven TD�s in 2002 gives an idea on what Q is still capable of.
Mushin Muhammad (CAR) � Not known as a high yards-per-catch guy, Muhammad averaged 15.5 last year along with a dramatic 85-yard fourth-quarter score in the Super Bowl.
Brandon Lloyd (SF) � With both Terrell Owens and Tai Streets gone, the fourth-round choice from last year suddenly may be the best option in Frisco. Lloyd made a few spectacular catches in his limited action last year. Should be a nice cheap player in the challenge games.
Tyrone Calico (TN) � Calico starts the year battling for the #2 spot among receivers, but there is a ton of upside. Calico goes 6�4� 223 with a ton of skills. Calico Cat will make some mistakes along the way, but will be a tremendous middle to late round choice.
Joey Galloway (DAL) � Still one of the league�s big play threats, averaging 19.8 yards a catch last year. Problem was that Joey only caught 34 passes. But with Antonio Bryant deep in coach Parcell�s doghouse, Joey should remain secure at a #2 receiver.
Robert Ferguson (GB) � His fine Divisional Playoff game (4 catches, 65 yards) provides hope for a breakout in his third season. Also caught 14 passes for 255 yards (18.2 per) in the final four games of the regular season.
Kevin Johnson (BAL) � Even after being ran out of two organizations in the last year, Johnson still has potential as he may be the best option Baltimore has. Johnson had 84 catches for nearly 1,100 yards and nine scores as recently as 2001, so there is hope for a resurgence.
David Givens (NE) � Really came on in the Patriots championship run, catching 13 passes in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl combined. Givens could very well be Tom Brady�s #1 target this year.
Rashaun Woods (SF) � Although he was the last of six first-round picks among receivers, Woods may have the best opportunity among the six to shine this year, but with the Niners QB situation a mess, don�t expect any repeats of his seven-TD game v. SMU last year. Is looked at as a rangy guy who runs nice routes with good hands, but not a burner.
Eddie Kennison (KC) � Has had a checked career, but accounted for 853 yards last year and is always good for 15+ yards per catch.
Rod Gardner (WSH) � A 1,000 yard/8 TD man in 2002, Gardner�s role was reduced drastically with Laveranues Coles around last year � only amassing 600 yards and barely 10 yards per catch. With Clinton Portis on board Gardner�s #�s may go down even more.
Troy Brown (NE) � After 100-catch seasons in 2001-02, Brown only caught 40 balls for 472 yards last year. David Givens and Troy Brown could push Brown into the role of a #3 receiver at this point in his career.
Josh Reed (BUF) � The NFL�s representative as the Sporting News future star a couple years back, Reed was considered a disappointment last year although he caught 58 passes. Lee Evans� arrival in Buffalo should relegate Reed into being a possession receiver.
Kevin Dyson (SD) � Will be forgotten about on draft day because (a), he�s a Charger, and (b) he missed virtually all of last season with a torn Achilles�. That said, he comes into camp as a #1 receiver, so he will get the ball a lot after the defenses attempt to shut down LaDainian Tomlinson.
Travis Taylor (BAL) � After catching 61 passes for 869 yards in 2002, Taylor regressed last year and was third in the league with 11 dropped passes.
Tai Streets (DET) � Returns to the area of his old college haunts with a one-year contract, where he will be reunited with Coach Steve Mariucci. Streets has never been a big-yardage producer, and may be a situational receiver behind Charles Rogers and Roy Williams.
Lee Evans (BUF) � Was considered a top draft prospect before tearing an ACL two years ago. Evens was one of the most impressive receivers in the pre-draft workouts and could become a #2 receiver as early as this year.
Marcus Robinson (MN) � Parlayed a few good game into a free-agent contract in Minnesota where he is projected as a starting #2 receiver. Robinson has some big-play ability and a top-flight QB throwing to him.
Terry Glenn (DAL) � Much maligned player did catch 52 passes for a 14.5 average last year. Keyshawn Johnson�s arrival may bump Glenn down to #3 or even #4 in the pecking order.
Michael Clayton (TB) � Yet another of the incredible first round bounty of receivers, the LSU product is not known for blazing speed, but for great range, good hands, and is not afraid to go over the middle.
Bryant Johnson (AZ) � First-round pick did not have a horrible rookie season, catching 35 passes for 438 yards. However Johnson is looking at dropping to #3 behind Anquan Bolden and Larry Fitzgerald.
Ike Hilliard (NYG) � We liked Ike a lot more in the opening half of 2002 when Hilliard averaged over 14 yards per catch. Last year Ike averaged just over 10, Kurt Warner returning to the form of a few years back is his only hope.
Donald Driver (GB) � In less than two years Driver has gone from being a legitimate top-ten fantasy receiver to battling just to remain a starter. Driver got dropped on his head in the season opener and spent the rest of the year struggling to regain his 2002 form.
Johnnie Morton (KC) � Caught 77 passes for 1,154 yards as recently as two years ago, but last years #�s (50 catches, 740 yards) are more likely in KC�s spread offense.
Drew Bennett (TN) � Has never caught more than 33 catches in a year, but Bennett has the inside track on being the Titans #2 receiver on Opening Day. A former college QB, Drew is a good candidate to throw a gadget touchdown along the way.
Michael Jenkins (ATL) � First round pick is projected at split end, his pairing with Michael Vick makes him a candidate for some big plays this year.
Joe Jurevicius (TB) � Got off to a strong start last year before a trick knee shelved him for the year. There are varied reports on his recovery, but should work his way into the receiving rotation if healthy.
Jerry Rice (OAK) � Appears to finally be on his last legs, but even last year Rice was good for 869 receiving yards and a 13.8 average.
Kelley Washington (CIN) � Coach Marvin Lewis thinks the second year man has a tremendous chance to challenge Peter Warrick as a #2 receiver this year. Washington was considered a projected first-round choice until a neck injury made him a draft day risk. Like teammate Chad Johnson, Washington is very confident in his abilities.
Todd Pinkston (PHI) � Went backwards after a 60 catch, 800 yard, 7 TD season in �02. Did have 273 yards in his final three games and averaged 16 yards per catch on the season.
Justin Gage (CHI) � Another reason why all seven rounds of the NFL Draft count. This second day pick in �03 averaged nearly 20 yards per catch in limited action as a rookie, and has been wowing the coaching staff during training camp. The rangy Gage is often compared to J.J Stokes.
Dennis Northcutt (CLE) � Northcutt�s career may be heading south after a tumultuous off-season that included an agent snafu that kept the free-agent to be bound to Cleveland. Northcutt reluctantly returns to the Browns where he will be used in a variety of duties including punt returns.
Jabar Gaffney (HOU) � Production declined in his second season dropping from 41 to 34 catches while averaging the same 11.8 yards per catch. Still, it wouldn�t be bad to get a #2 receiver this late in the draft.
Curtis Conway (SF) � After a so-so season with the Jets (46 catches/640 yards), Conway returns to the West Coast where he by far becomes the 49ers most experienced receiver.
Andre Davis (CLE) � Yet another in a crowded Cleveland receiving corps, Davis has averaged one touchdown per seven receptions in his brief career.
David Terrell (CHI) � This may be the final chance for the one-time top-ten overall pick to prove his wares in Chicago. Terrell�s 8.4 average per catch was a league low among all receivers with 40 catches or more last year. The only ray of hope is that the new coaching regime will have a more pass friendly attack.
Kassim Osgood (SD) � Didn�t the Red Wings just dump this guy?? Actually, this Osgood was one of two great undrafted finds the San Diego front office found last year. Not like they had to look far, Osgood put up some prolific numbers in his senior season at San Diego St. In limited action last year, the 6�5� Osgood was good for 21.4 yards per catch including a 57-yard TD.
Antonio Bryant (DAL) � You�ve probably seen this scene in the movies. A legendary coach (Lombardi, Halas, Bear Bryant, Woody Hayes etc.) screams at and shoves an underachieving player all over the practice field. The frustrated player finally decks the coach halfway into the next county. Coach is lying sprawled in a heap, and thoughts of manslaughter charges and lawsuits fly through the players mind. Suddenly Coach pops to his feet, jumps back into the players face and says �THAT�S THE AGGRESSION I WANT TO SEE OUT OF YOU!!!!!� That�s why Bryant didn�t get an immediate one way ticket out of town after an incident with Bill Parcells that according to the Cowboy organization never happened. Before giving up on Bryant, be aware that he had prolific numbers on par with Larry Fitzgerald at the University of Pittsburgh.
Cedric Wilson (SF) � Some feel that he will start this year, but there�s plenty of company muddled on the 49er depth chart. Best guess is that Wilson will be utilized as a slot receiver.
Freddie Mitchell (PHI) � Forever in the nightmares of Green Bay Packer fans, Mitchell appeared ready to challenge for a starting spot but the Owens acquisition scuttles that. Look for Mitchell to again be a third-down possession receiver and expect about 500-600 yards. At least he ranks ahead of Nathan Poole.
Brandon Stokley (IND) � Also came through late in the season, catching six TD�s in the teams final six games (including playoffs).
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