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Clippings Page.
Nuggets (items and short phrases for the next millennium)
Millennium Course (taught by Jack Latona)
Creating the Future Course Outline (taught by Jack Latona)
The Future of Ideology
Death of Ideology
Clippings Page.
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These are projects that are intended to build a different future.
Send us the link to your organization's web page that describes projects to shape the future. Without these efforts, the future would be "more of the same" or the future would be shaped by other forces.
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Irrational Thinking in a Rational World
Your Homework: Answer this question.  How much of the current rise in gasoline prices is the result of people switching to SUV's, which get half of the fuel economy that their previous cars got? www.energy.gov


ONE ANSWER appears here on the Newsletter for May 2001







Newsletter for May 2001
References are to tables that appear in the Transportation Energy Data Book, ORNL-6959, edition 20, edited by Stacy C. Davis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
www.ornl.gov
www-cta.ornl.gov/data


Useful Websites

American Automobile Association
www.aaa.com


Electric Vehicle Association of the Americas (Industry group formed by major car makers)
www.evaa.org


US Department of Transportation
www.dot.gov

Bureau of Transportation Statistics
www.bts.gov

Federal Highway Administration
www.fhwa.dot.gov

US Environmental Protection Agency
www.epa.gov

Ward's Auto (car information)
www.wardsauto.com


Texas Transportation Institute
tti.tamu.edu

California Energy Commission
www.energy.ca.gov

American Public Transportation Association
www.apta.com

Fuel Economy
www.fueleconomy.gov






Year

Gasoline used

Number of vehicle registrations





1992  

111 billion gallons

126 million vehicles


1999

124 billion gallons

131 million vehicles


DIFFERENCE

13 billion gallons

5 million vehicles


Annual use of a typical car
11,800 miles per year
Table 11.11
Gasoline used at 25 mpg                472                 
Gasoline used at 10 mpg              1180
Difference                               708 gallons per vehicle
Roughly 11.5 million light-duty trucks were purchased between 1992 and 1999 that previously probably would have been cars.  (These light-duty trucks consume 708 gallons more each year than a typical car would have consumed):
7.8 billion gallons of the 13-billion increase can be attributed to the switch to light-duty trucks that hit the road between 1992 and 1999.

Note:  It is difficult to separate out which vehicles were replaced (either light-duty trucks or cars), but the significant increase in new light-duty truck purchases suggests that most of the new vehicles added to the road were light-duty vehicles.  Roughly 74 million new vehicles were purchased between 1995 and 1999.  That's 12.5 million vehicles more than the buying trend in 1992.  11.5 million of that increase were light-duty trucks.  If those vehicles had been typical cars, roughly 8 billion gallons of gasoline would not be demanded. Demand for gasoline would be roughly 6 percent lower than it is today if light-duty trucks were switched to cars. 
          New CAR       Change since
           sales                1992
           (millions)          (8.2 million)

1995       8.6                   0.4

1996       8.5                   0.3

1997       8.2                   0

1998        8.1                 -0.1

1999        8.6                0.4

TOTAL    41.0              1.0 million new cars
(increase in the buying rate in 1992)
          New LIGHT       Change since
           TRUCK sales                1992
           (millions)          (4.6 million)

1995       6.0                  1.4

1996       6.5                   1.9

1997        6.8                 2.2

1998        7.3                 2.7

1999        8.0                3.4

TOTAL   33.6              11.5 million new light trucks
(increase in the buying rate in 1992)
Between 1995 and 1999, 33.6 million light duty trucks were sold -- 11.5 million more than the buying trend in 1992.
Overview: 5 million additional vehicles should consume about 2.5 billion additional gallons of gasoline.  Since the new consumption rose 13 billion, 90 percent of the increase must be coming from other sources.
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