Just another peak oil page

Another one of these visionaries. Below you find the one graph that explains all my worries about peak oil.

This site is commenting on the possible (or not?) scarcity of energy around us in the 21th century. Say time perspective our next three decades. You reader have a PC with an internet connection, thus you are well off (or see here). That's thanks to the generation before us, and thanks to cheap energy. Cheap oil in particular. Hey it was twenty bucks a barrel in the 90ties, why is it $60 now? and where is it going in a year or three, and how are you and I and your country influenced?

How much oil is available to keep our infinite growth economy humming nicely? Well this graph, from Stuart S. over at TOD, makes for an interesting introduction to this theme. It shows official figures for production of liquid petrol stuff in Million Barrels Per Day (the world produces about 85 such mbpd), and production is flat since 2004.

Click to enlarge.

What? So, world economy is booming (still now 2006), oil price is increasing steadily [see graph price per year again] and oil production is stagnant? I thought classical economic theory would take care of that? Increasing price would lead to increasing production? Ok, until now there has been a great deal of politics in oil economy, so the one basic commodity which would have needed a free market havent had it. In any case a doubling of price leads to no increase in production. Doesnt oil have any component of free market? Production should have been influenced somehow, right? Does this mean something else? Is there no more pressure at the wells, or what is going on? Could there really be physical, geological barriers to how much we can pump? Is the plateau only a blip not to worry about? A 1.5 year blip in that case.

Next natural question is: will production increase/decrease next, 2006-2008? And what will that mean for the cost of my tank of gas/my electricity bill/my job/the humming economy/war?

So why not pump more off the black gold? Well to start with, all bottlenecks to produce seem tight:

Fields (new discoveries low/fields in decline), wells (can be drilled - but noone does, gee, I wonder why?), engineers, refineries, tankers, steel price (ref. that opec producers use a last excuse a threefold increase in materials price since 199x). It will take time before new infrastructure is built. There was some news from Mexico about a nice new offshore field in March, however, opinions differs. One well was drilled to depths. Maybe a big one, we will see in about ten years. In any case Mexico might reduce exportation: Cantarell is on peak production and will decline, coupled with an increasing domestic use in Mexico. I dont believe US should expect increased imports, exactly. Angola, Nigeria or Iraq aint gonna make any substantial contributions to increased production the next 2-4 years. More, most mature fields expect a decline rate of a few percent per year. And the Iran story (will Bush do another craze attack? come on G. go for it!) aint doing things look any better.

Reassuring comments come in any case from official channels like this report from EIA (2007 we will see reversed declining production trends by magic and increased production? Woaw, we are ok!) and the Saudis. Hey look at this guy he has it all in control. His statement: We will produce all that the world needs. Anybody counter-argument? His predecessor? or Simmons perhaps? So what should we believe? Russia is the only large producer actually increasing production, from 9 mbpd to what, maybe 11-12-13, also in five years time.[here comes my guess curve]. There are more persons out there with a darker, but perhaps realistic, view [to mention a few, Aspo, Campbell, tod, sites peak oil].

Hurt economy? Consumption is high, thus. Price gets high. China is projected to increase consumption 2006+, India too, USA too. So then, 2007?, 2008?, could come a� recession which takes the pressure of the consumption a bit? And then it resumes and the situation will be a lot worse 2010. What projects are expected to come online the next couple of years to debottleneck and get more of the stuff to industries and consumers that need petroleum products to keep our system running? Thats the questions Ill look into next step, and everybody else too, I think [link CNN, grey old lady].

Ok, 2006, 2007 will be fine, you say. What happens in a decade? What happens in three decades? Thats when my son might be in my age now? What world would I like to let him inherit? Here is one famous http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/. Or do we prefer to leave it to the next generation to solve our mistakes? An interesting ethical question, heavily discussed in society today. That is often our dinner theme here in old Europe. What do you talk about in the states during a dinner with your friends?

One argument is that a sustainable society must be created in any case within say a hundred years, so we could as well do it now. The counter-argument is ofcourse: thats what we are doing, we need to progress by using oil for example to a technological advanced, and sustainable society. That will only take another 50 to hundred years!

Heres a list with changes I have done in my life the last 2 years. Good luck to you too. It is feasible. And you can make a difference.

Yes, this means that my personal point of view is that we should consume less by being more efficient. And we might have to in a near future in any case, so I prefer to be well prepared before.

Food efficiency http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4807026.stm

Comments climate science findings 2005 http://climate.wri.org/climatescience-pub-4175.html

Ps as wise men say: the richness and happiness in your life, is only dependant on if you, regularly, can achieve an inner stillness and comprehension of yourself and your connection to the world.
Ok, 2000 kcal healthy food a day in addition to that.