Proof positive that a team is loaded for bear and not happy with just a conference championship. The University of Kentucky defeated Mississippi St. 65-57 to win the SEC Tourney, the Wildcats 23rd consecutive win. After the game, workers stationed ladders under each basket so the team can do the time-honored tradition of cutting down the nets. The UK players would have none of it. See, the tournament took place in the New Orleans Superdome, where UK hopes to be competing in the finals of another tourney in three weeks. Deciding not to jinx anything, the nets were left undisturbed.
With that, Kentucky comes into the 2003 Tourney as every bit the prohibitive favorite that Duke was at this time last year. Of course the Blue Devils were knocked out in the Round of 16 by Indiana. If you had Maryland (a distant second favorite) to win it all, chances are your brackets did pretty good. KACSPORTS selected Maryland last year, and despite a good but not great bracket otherwise � finished in the top 13 percentile in Yahoo�s Tournament Pick� Em game.
Other fun facts regarding the Big Dance include�
On the average, the higher seeded teams go between 22-10 and 24-8 in the first round, with 1-2 upsets coming from teams seeded between 13 and 15. Thus at the very worse, you will go 14-2 picking every favorite from among the top four seeds in the first round. If the higher seeded teams go 23-9 overall, that makes 9-7 par for the course in the 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9 games. Your goal should be to do better than that.
And then there are the 5-12 games, where the #12 team always seem to be especially dangerous. This year�s cast includes Horizon League representatives Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, along with Weber St. and BYU � Many recall (remember Harold 'The Show' Arceneaux???) Weber St. (as a #14 seed) for slaying then almighty North Carolina back in 1999. Tulsa at a #13 seed should prove to be vary dangerous as well, with a very winnable game v. #4 seed Dayton.
Believe me this is by design � Most of the power seems to be in the Midwest/West brackets, where possibilities include a Duke/Kansas Sweet 16 game as well as a regional final between Arizona v. Duke or Kansas. Meanwhile Kentucky has been given the Yellow Brick Road to the regional finals where Pittsburgh or Marquette provide the only possible resistance to a return trip to New Orleans for the Wildcats. Once in New Orleans, Kentucky will be pitted against either Arizona, Duke, or Kansas. Which is exactly what the NCAA and the network wants for a blockbuster Saturday Night National Semi-final nightcap.
Oklahoma and Texas are the #1 seeds in the South and East brackets, but that half of the filed is wide open, look for most office pools will be decided with those two brackets.
A fan poll on the ESPN Bracketology Special predicted all four #1�s to advance to the Superdome. The talking heads on ESPN liked three #1�s along with #5 seed Mississippi St. Digger Phelps likes three of the 1�s and #2 seed Florida. History looks for a few more surprises than that. Look for the tourney to shape up as follows (percentage from the ESPN poll are in parenthesis)�
MIDWEST REGIONAL
#1 Kentucky (99.9) over #16 IUPUI � Stands for Indiana Univerisity/Purdue University at Indianapolis. UK advances.
#8 Oregon (70.9) over #9 Utah � Ute�s top player Britton Johnson questionable due to injury. Pick Oregon.
#12 Weber St over #5 Wisconsin (64.7) � A #12 team who should click, Weber has won 17 straight and Wisconsin (throwing out 2000�s surprise run) is usually an early out.
#4 Dayton (72) over #13 Tulsa � If you�re bold go ahead and throw a bone out at Tulsa. Anyone in this 4/5/12/13 quadrant is capable of making the round of 16.
#6 Missouri (74.3) over #11 Southern Illinois � KACSPORTS nailed it on Mizzou last year, picking the Tigers as a #12 seed to reach the elite eight. Look for Coach Quinn Snyder to lead a similar charge this year.
#3 Marquette (91.2) over #14 Holy Cross � MU lucky to get soft opening draw after first-round embarrassment in the conference tournament.
#10 Alabama over #7 Indiana (60.9) � Remember when the Tide was ranked #1 back in December. Look for IU to be an early out after last year�s Championship Game appearance.
#2 Pittsburgh (99.5) over #15 Wagner � Panthers proved they were not a paper tiger after winning first ever Big East tourney.
WEST REGIONAL
#1 Arizona over #16 Vermont � After beating UCLA by 36 and 37 in regular season appearances, managed to lose to the Bruins in the opening round of the conference tourney. Get a feeling that the Cats are more interested in this dance???
#8 Cincinnati over #9 Gonzaga (76.6) � One game where the voters on ESPN liked the underdog. Zags still getting a lot of run based on the Cinderella efforts of recent years. Cincy showed they could still be a force with a late-season rout of Louisville.
#5 Notre Dame (76.3) over #12 UW-Milwaukee � UWM (#44 in Sagarin's) a tempting upset pick, but Panthers are in a place they�ve never been before.
#4 Illinois (92.5) over #13 Western Kentucky � Illini the best Big-10 bet this year and a bonifide Final Four candidate for next year.
#11 Central Michigan (83.6) over #6 Creighton � Bluejays do so well that they now wear the home uni's for Round 1. Like Gonzaga last year, they may find things harder as the hunted rather than the hunter.
#3 Duke (98.7) over #14 Colorado St. � Rams (19-13) finished 5-9 in conference but made tourney by running table in Mountain West Tourney.
#7 Memphis (74.1) over #10 Arizona State � Go with the experienced coach � John Calipari in this case.
#2 Kansas (99.2) over #15 Utah St. � Yes, virtually every team in Utah has made it to the big dance, with the Aggies participating for third time in last four years.
SOUTH REGIONAL
#1 Texas (99.8) over #16 Play-In Winner � Texas Southern and UNC-Asheville vie for the right to take on the Longhorns.
#8 LSU (74.0) over #9 Purdue � Go with SEC over Big Ten in this case.
#5 UConn (88.6) over #12 BYU � Cougars dangerous with a #19 RPI and #28 Sagarin ranking, and deserve higher than a #12 seed. Could really screw up the brackets by advancing to the Sweet 16, which would mean a move to the Midwest, switching places with the Wisconsin/Weber St./Dayton/Tulsa quadrant.
#4 Stanford (90.2) over #13 San Diego � Torreros in Big Dance for first time since 1987, when they gave Auburn a first round run for it�s money.
#6 Maryland (90.5) over #11 UNC-Wilmington � One 6-11 matchup that won�t be a contest. Go with the Senior-laden Terps.
#3 Xavier (93.0) over #14 Troy State � X�s resume includes a pair of wins over Dayton.
#7 Michigan St. over #10 Colorado (62.9) � Another where the exit poll likes the underdog. I have one three words. Tom Izzo and altitiude.
#2 Florida (98.8) over #15 Sam Houston St. � Gators get first two rounds in Tampa.
EAST REGIONAL
#1 Oklahoma (99.8) v. #16 SC State � TSN Cover Boy Hollis Price has officially been declared this year�s Juan Dixon. Whatever.
#9 NC State (74.3) over #8 California � The third game where voters like the lower seed. In this case I agree.
#12 Butler over #5 Mississippi St. (61.7) � Will be one of the best first round games. Don�t get deceived by Butler�s blowout loss to UWM in the Conference Final, which occurred in Milwuakee. Bulldogs still steaming from Tourney snub last year.
#4 Louisville (97.7) over #13 Austin Peay � Despite the late slump Cards are still sixth in the Sagarin's, and did rebound to win conference tourney.
#6 Oklahoma St. (62.2) over #11 Pennsylvania � As usual, Ivy League entry is a trendy first round pick. But go with the Big 12 team in this case.
#3 Syracuse (95.0) over #14 Manhattan � Regionals are in-state in Albany if the Orange makes it that far.
#7 St Joseph�s (63.7) over #10 Auburn � Many like War Eagle in this one.
#2 Wake Forest over #15 East Tennessee St. � WF was picked seventh in the conference during the pre-season.
Well, that�s 27-5 for the higher seeded teams � as I don�t like a lot of first round upsets this year. We make up for it however in subsequent rounds however�
SECOND ROUND � MIDWEST REGIONAL
#1 Kentucky over #8 Oregon � 97.1 on ESPN like UK to get past this round, notice a trend???
#4 Dayton over #12 Weber St. � 53.5 have Dayton, which again shows how wide-open this quadrant is.
#6 Missouri over #3 Marquette � 54.5 would like MU at this game, but remember their 29 turnovers v. UAB.
#2 Pittsburgh over #10 Alabama � 91.7 like Pitt, and that�s if they play #7 Indiana.
WEST REGIONAL
#1 Arizona over #8 Cincinnati � Two teams who traditionally take an early out of tourney.
#5 Notre Dame over #4 Illinois � 75.7 pick the Illini, but look for Chris Thomas gets Irish to Sweet 16.
#3 Duke over #11 Central Michigan � 83.7 give the nod to the Dukies, and that's with Creighton as the opposition.
#7 Memphis over #2 Kansas � 89.4 like the Jayhawks, but you just expect a team with a go-to player named Heinrich to take the gaspipe.
SOUTH REGIONAL
#1 Texas over #8 LSU � 91.2 percent like the Longhorns.
#5 UConn over #4 Stanford � 70.2 actually like the lower-seeded Huskies. Stanford was picked seventh in the PAC-10 in pre-season polls.
#6 Maryland over #3 Xavier � 59.2 like the lower-seeded Terps. Never count out the champs.
#2 Florida over #7 Michigan St. � 86.7 pick the Gators here, should be revenge for 2000.
EAST REGIONAL
#1 Oklahoma over #9 NC State � 90.2 give the nod to the Sooners.
#4 Louisville over #12 Butler � 72.3 like the Cards, and that�s if they play Mississippi St. � who bodes as a possible darkhorse.
#6 Oklahoma St. over #3 Syracuse � Orange are a popular 85.8 percent pick here, go against the trend here.
#2 Wake Forest over #7 St Joseph�s � 89.8 percent like WF, go with the power conference here.
SWEET 16 � MIDWEST REGIONAL
#1 Kentucky over #4 Dayton � 98.8 have UK in this one, notice a trend???
#6 Missouri over #2 Pittsburgh � 75.6 have Pitt, and that would be if they draw Marquette. But it�s now time to pick upsets, MIZZOU to the Final Eight for a second straight year.
WEST REGIONAL
#1 Arizona over #5 Notre Dame � 78.5 have the Cats moving on from here.
#3 Duke over #7 Memphis � 53.6 have Kansas beating the Dukies if that were to be the matchup.
SOUTH REGIONAL
#5 UConn over #1 Texas � 74.1 went with Texas, but look for the first #1 to go down here.
#6 Maryland over #2 Florida � Gators are a shaky 51.5 percent pick with ESPN voters, so go with the upset.
EAST REGIONAL
#4 Louisville over #1 Oklahoma � 67.7 have the Sooners, but it�s time for another #1 to go down.
#2 Wake Forest over #6 Oklahoma St � So much for that OU/OSU regional final. 55.9 actually have #3 seed Syracuse going to the Final Eight.
REGIONAL FINALS
MIDWEST: #1 Kentucky over #6 Missouri � Cats are cooling down, only 86 percent are with them here, and that�s if they play #2 seed Pittsburgh.
WEST: #3 Duke over #1 Arizona � 66.8 Like Arizona over Kansas in this round.
SOUTH: #6 Maryland over #5 UConn � 70 percent have Texas beating Florida here.
EAST: #4 Louisville over #2 Wake Forest � Oklahoma is a 60.4 percent pick over Syracuse, regional finals are in Albany.
That leaves a #1, #3, #4, and #6 for the Final Four. One or two #1 seeds making it through are usually par for the course. Look for the proceedings in New Orleans to go as follows�
FIRST SEMI-FINAL: #4 Louisville over #6 Maryland � Texas was a narrow 52 percent pick on the ESPN poll.
SECOND SEMI-FINAL: #1 Kentucky over #3 Duke � Only 84.6 percent have UK here, and that�s if they play Arizona.
FINAL: #1 Kentucky over #4 Louisville � 89.8 have Cats winning should they make it this far. Look for winning streak to extend to 29 while getting revenge for their last loss.