Problem Definition:
Due to the volume of special designs the group must handle, track and maintain, the company has created numerous “systems” for handling projects flowing through the department…..Lotus Notes Database for workload handling and tracking purposes, Lotus Approach Database for downloading and querying data from the Lotus Notes database, and Lotus 123/Excel spreadsheets for prioritization and communication purposes. Since the “specials” are outside of the normal order entry, ERP and MRPII systems, the special designs are basically handled in a “brute force” manner and with the implementation of these systems, the actual “overhead” to shuffle paper has increased with respect to the total special design time. Because the orders are typically already late by the time the order flows into OE, the department is continuously under pressure to reduce the special lead-time but also to give an accurate estimate of when any given special order will clear the department. There have been several attempts in the past, to estimate the “average” OE turnaround time, but these attempts were never able to come up with an accurate, all-inclusive number because each attempt failed to take into account the varying complexities of each project, the number of projects in the department at any given time or the number and skills of the personnel employed within the department.
Although there are many things that affect the workload and lead-time of the OE department, and there are many things the department would like to investigate and improve upon, the primary focus of this investigation was on developing a statistical forecast model that will allow the department to provide other departments with an estimated “time of completion” for any new project, based on current department “backlog”, estimated complexity of new project, department personnel, etc. |