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et tu Brute' ? ... Don't Catch Any Falling Swords ... Ouch!
March 15, 2001 Ah ! ... another day in the market. Can you guess what happened? No, you say? ... Well ... come closer and I will tell you... A wee little attempt at at rally? Perhaps ... but I wouldn't bet on that one. Probably just preparation for tomorrow's triple witch day. Don't you just love that term ... sort of like a midnight scare ... Triple witch happens 4 times a year ... every three months ... and this is the first month of the year when it happens ... it simply means that three types of trades come due ... Options, Index Options and Futures ... Double witch happens every two months ... six times a year ... and Options and Futures come due on the same friday ... every third friday of every month Options come due ... and that's all there is to it ... ~ L ~ ... just a lot of money moves around on triple witching day ... a little less on double witching and far less when options fall due ... right now puts out number calls 30-1 ... a bear market ... everyone betting it will go down ... I have an opinion about what Japanese investors did to our market yesterday but I will keep it to myself ... think i will just remind those people that what goes 'round ... comes 'round ... and of course we are still digesting yet another manipulation of the market. As if Greenspan, and a republican president isn't enough to deal with ... we also have foriegn investors to watch out for too ... geezes ... getting harder to dodge the bullets ... sounds cynical huh? so where are we today then? ... well i am still shouting ... No mas! No mas! ... Uncle, Uncle ... and rolling over ... i surrender! ... Are there enough towels for traders and fund managers to throw into the ring? Who do we make an agreement with to capitulate? ... I am becoming the Queen of capitulation ... ~ L ~ ... but can't find anyone who will to agree to stop the sell offs so there is no "capitulation", no way to surrender. There was a moment of hopeful
optimism yesterday but of course, that was crushed by Intel (INTC) and Cisco Systems CSCO). Ever study communications? ... well there are a variety of types ... snippers, bombs and grenades ... and two grenades were lobbed into the tech bunker yesterday, everyone scattered and no one was left to defend the position, and that should be a signal for anyone who is left to run for the hills. Hey all you techoholics ... Listen up. ... If you are hanging on to your tech stocks because 'it won't get worse than this,' think again, it can ... and, in my opinion, it will. Hold on to your hat for the next 45-60 days and watch the NAS tape turn red with the continued woes of tech companies. I wonder who, which, will be begging for forgiveness during the earnings confession season that is just ahead.
Here is what i think is part of what is going on. Investors are still puking up tech like a bad case of the flu. First, because tech stocks have entered the never-never land ... don't go there land of portfolio managers. Value managers say they are too expensive, and earnings growth rates are too slow for growth managers.
And secondly, the S&P 500 is comprised of just 17% tech. Portfolio managers of certain funds like Janus and Fidelity who are holding about 30% tech in their portfolios, are going to need to throw in the towel too and dump their tech to keep from under performing the revered index.
Some are saying that based on analysis of earnings growth rates and so called reasonabale P/Es, not to mention June ... techs historical worst month ... we should expect to see a whole list of low-20 prices before summer is over you. We could go "where no man has gone before" ... ~ L ~ ... believe it or not! Now for those who don't know me ... I am a techaholic for sure ... ~ L ~ ... but ... I can wait ... ~ grin ~ ... and do my shoping in the bargain basement, can you? I think my favorite tech stocks will be on that list including: Cisco (CSCO) $15-$16 I know no one wants my advice ... ~ LOL ~ ... but here is what I think ... if you are buried in tech, and it is not to late ... try to lower your exposure on snapback rallies ... jump in and sell right along with everyone else. I believe it will come back ... but ... I also think there may be a 'better bottom' where you may be able to make some back and recover some loses ... in about a year ... ~ L ~ ... move to other sectors ... 'cause i think tech is dead for the short term and the forseeable future.
But ... remember ... i am not a professional ... just a woman ... and blonde at that ... with an opinion ... bad, good or indifferent ... so ... and remember to do your own homework ... due diligence ... and always consult your broker and brokerage firm before making any trade ... and Happy Trading ... And remember too ... that the Fed has a great responsibility keeping serfdom in tact. |
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Copyright � 2001 Cassie All rights reserved. 
 ~cassie~ 
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