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Well here it is ... I am wondering how much more the Fed, the President, small investors, retiree's and the public in general needs to hear before the real panic of recession spinning to depression takes over, aren't you? Okay, now as I understand this, ... and of course I could be wrong ... but ... the market is a 'future' indicator of the economy ... where it is going ... not ... a past indicator of where the economy WAS! When we buy stocks ... aren't we betting on something? Either the market ... (a reflection of the future economy) is going to go up ... and why does it go up ... because we think the stocks we invest in are going to make money in the FUTURE ... or ... we bet (short) it is going to go down ... because we think the company's we invest in are going to lose money in the future ... up = a stock value increasing because the economic future looks good ... down = a stocks value decreasing = because the economic future looks
bad ... right? ... What do you think? I am wondering how long we will play this game of pretending that the market has 'suffered a little correction' ! ... I am beginning to think that the favorite American past time is to be duped and like it. Actually window dressing week was not nearly as bad as CNBC tried to portray it ... but negative reporting always draws more attention the positive reporting, though God knows I am not sure there has been anything positive to report if you are a bull, but if you are a bear, well I guess it's all positive news. I do expect more picking on the bones over the next several weeks with little bull rallys in between, I hope. I don't think it's over yet ... not by a long way ... I have yet to hear the fat lady sing ... and I don't think the Fed has quite finished with the serfs ... I don't think they have want they want yet ... I have no idea where the bottom is ... but I do think there is yet more bottom ... I also have not heard anyone dare to venture a guess at the bottom either. More personal disaster will become clearly evident in the comming weeks, but perhaps our illustrious Congress and Senate have also realized they too have lost their personal fortune, I think Maria Cantwell has discovered the pitfalls of the "wealth affect". I think that is the only reason we may see some capital gains relief. Many small investors however, will never recover and sadly what the market didn't get the IRS will. Many baby boomers will not live the retirement life they planned ... there is not enough time for them to recover their losses ... and that is the saddest thought of all ... what they worked for, planned for and saved for is now gone. Perhaps we should bolster social security. until next week ... happy trading Market Outlook
Stocks traded sharply lower today as investors brace themselves for the difficult earnings-warning season. Monday saw pre-announcements from American Express, i2 Technologies, Ariba and Redback Networks. This morning was much quieter, but investors are not being drawn in by the lull. While stocks should bounce briefly after a sell-off this steep, the outlook for the next few weeks remains extremely bearish. As a result, there is a strong possibility that the market could meet the dire worst-case predictions made earlier in the year when the sell-off was just gaining momentum. For the NASDAQ that means a low in the 1400-1500 range and for the Dow a drop below 9000. Stocks to Watch AOL Time Warner CEO Sees Company Meeting Guidance
AOL Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:AOL) Chief Executive Gerald Levin said on Tuesday that despite the current market climate, he is very confident about the ability of the world's largest Internet and media company to meet the 2001 financial targets it laid out earlier this year. Citigroup Cuts Corporate, Investment Banking Jobs
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is laying off several hundred staff, the U.S. No. 1 financial services firm said on Tuesday, making it the latest in a line of financial firms to cut jobs as stock markets slump. Xerox Shares Slide Amid Renewed Accounting Concerns
Shares of Xerox Corp. (NYSE:XRX) fell 16 percent early Tuesday amid renewed concern about the troubled office equipment maker's accounting practices. Microsoft, H-P Settle With FTC Over Handheld Ads
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HWP) agreed to drop claims that some handheld computers come with built-in wireless Internet access to avoid charges of deceptive advertising, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said on Tuesday. Online Grocer Foresees Grim Future
Online grocer Webvan Group Inc. could be nearing the end of the aisle.
Investors Prepare for Earnings... The first quarter officially ended on Friday, and investors are gearing up for a gloomy reporting season. First, though, they have to get through the confessional season, which promises to be just as grim. "I'm coming to work in a hard hat. It could be one of the great all time tough weeks," says Michael Vogelzang, chief investment officer for Boston Advisors. As of last Friday, 984 companies issued statements on their earnings ahead of reporting and of those 682 had negative comments, according to I/B/E/S International. The year-ago period was much kinder - in the same time period, 272 companies issued statements with only 122 of them negative. And it will only get worse, says Joe Kalinowski, equities strategist for I/B/E/S. If this trend continues, investors can expect 200 to 250 more companies to warn about lower-than-expected earnings next week. "It is going to be rough, there is nothing good to be said," says Barry Hyman, chief investment officer for Weatherly Securities. To be sure, market players are aware the economy has slowed dramatically from the year-ago period, but many are still unsure just how severe the slowdown is. Kalinowski says negative 8 percent earnings growth is predicted for the first quarter, compared to growth of more than 23 percent for first quarter 2000. And the bad news isn't yet priced in, analysts say. For example, Nortel Networks {NT, News, Boards
}last week guided earnings estimates lower for the second time, shocking the market and pummeling the stock. Nortel warned Tuesday night and by Wednesday's close, shares had lost 16.5 percent. Analysts say investors are still uncomfortable with stock prices for some stocks and as more earnings hit the Street, look for shares to fall even further. "You would think that everyone's expectations had been adjusted downward to appropriate levels," says Brett Julius, head of U.S. equities and deputy chief investment officer. "When you get a surprise like Nortel after they already made a couple of downward adjustments, it gives investors impression no one is quite sure how bad it is." Still, the indexes are trading at very oversold levels, analysts say. And with the prospect of a possible inter-meeting rate cut by the Federal Reserve, some money managers say stocks could see a bit of a bounce when all is said and done. "The first two weeks in April are viewed as the most likely time for the Fed to cut rates if they are going to," says Timothy Woolston, fund manager for Boston Advisors. "For the month of March, there has been a negative outflow of money for mutual funds. The last time that happened was October 1998. The market could be setting itself up for a tradable rally." Economic News Investors will keep a close eye on economic data next week, in hope of a surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve ahead of its May 15 meeting. Two pieces of data standout on the calendar next week as possible catalysts to make the Fed move. The National Association of Purchasing Management index for March is out Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Remember, this report prompted the Fed to ease rates between meetings back on January 3. And after a weak Chicago purchasing managers report last week, economists are calling for the NAPM to slip. The figure, which measures manufacturing activity, fell to 41.9 for February, and some economists are calling for the figure to slip below 40 in March. "Some economists see the number at 39," says Christopher Low, chief economist for First Tennessee Capital Markets. "That would be the first reading below 40 since September 1982." A reading below 50 generally indicates a slowdown in activity, and below 40 would be grim, economists say. Also out next week is the unemployment report for March. Economists are calling for the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.3 percent in March from 4.3 percent in February. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise only 70,000 lower than the previous month's 135,000 rise. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 percent from last month's 0.5 percent rise and the average workweek to consist of 34.1 hours.
The unemployment report is out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Also out next week are auto and truck sales for March, factory orders and wholesales inventories for February.
So what if the reports do come in weak? Investors may be hoping for the central bank to step in early, but some economists remain skeptical.
"I don't think the Fed is willing to commit yet," Low says. "There is no pressing evidence yet that the Fed needs to be more aggressive. There is likely to be that evidence, but not yet."
IPO Alert There is only one initial public offering slated for next week. General Maritime Corp. {GMR, News, Boards}, a crude oil transportation company, is scheduled to price a deal valued at $133 million.
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Copyright � 2001�� Cassie �� All rights reserved. 
 ~cassie~ 
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